Surface Anomalies Prior to Earthquakes - FIGfig.net/pub/fig2013/ppt/ts07c/TS07C_valizadeh... · 16-05-2013 1 Surface Anomalies Prior to Earthquakes Habibeh Valizadeh, Shattri B. Mansor

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Surface Anomalies Prior to Earthquakes

Habibeh Valizadeh, Shattri B. MansorHusaini Omar and Farid AzadDepartment of Civil Engineering

Universiti Putra MalaysiaSerdang, Selangor

[email protected]

Recently, new theories on underground geophysical andgeochemical interactions occur during preparation stagesofearthquakes and the resultant measurable variations have beenput into test and some warning factors were suggested asearthquake precursors.

In case of oceanic and coastal earthquakes, with thinner crust,these pre-earthquake activities may be detected throughsecondary oceanic and atmospheric phenomenon.

IntroductionIntroduction

Earthquake Precursor ≠≠≠≠ Earthquake Prediction

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Earthquakes?Earthquakes?

Are they really predictable?•Vibrations in the earth are caused by sudden release of energy.•This energy is produced somewhere within the crust.•Its formation and existence produce phenomena under, on and above the ground.

•Satellite-based measurements and ground observation networks can be specialized to monitor the earthquakes-related changes.

Earthquake PrecursorsEarthquake Precursors

• Temperature anomalies• SLHF (higher atmosphere-surface energy exchange)• Chl-a concentration• Radon gas emission• Crust Deformations• Strange cloud formation• Seismic pattern

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Frequency and distribution( 1973-2012)Frequency and distribution( 1973-2012)

Earthquake event

Seismology

Remote Sensing

In-situ measurement

Short Term Hours/Days/Weeks

Long Term Months/Years/Decade

Earthquake precursors prior to the event(Hours/Days/Weeks)

Remote Sensing

Our concern is:

Earthquake PrecursorsEarthquake Precursors

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Monitoring the Precursors

� Attenuation of received signals.

� Significant seasonal and natural changes on the surface masking the earthquake-related anomalies.

� Anomalies due to human activities.

� Limited knowledge on the local fault regime; earthquake formation site and places of vibration.

� Low resolution remote sensing data and insufficient number of ground stations.

� Free available remote sensing data covering large scales allow monitoring the earth’s surface.

� Data providers produce high-quality and trustable data using in-situ measurement networks and validation models.

Possibilities

Problems

Statistical analysis, visual inspection, abnormality detection, mapping the spatial distribution of

variations

Detection of the concurrent precursors, determination of active faulting

Des

crip

tive

Ana

lysi

s

Seismographs Space-based data

Fault maps and tectonic

information

Historical shakes

Identifying the available maps, remote sensing data, reanalysis information, fault distribution maps and geological setting

Determining the suitable precursors

Recognizing of the Suspected

Area for future quakes

Exp

ecte

d re

sults

Assessing the extents of the earthquake area and the possibility of monitoring seismic activity from

satellite data for the case study area

Evaluation of the available earthquake preparation theories by concurrencies of RS-based precursors

and seismic records

Ana

lytic

al

Ana

lysi

s

• Earthquake characteristics

• Minor shake mapping

• Seismic gaps

• Statistical analysis

• Long-term prediction

Are

a C

hara

cter

izat

ion

WorkflowWorkflow

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DataData

Data Chlorophyll-a from MODIS

Upwelling Indices from PFEL

Surface Latent Heat Flux fromNCEP

Surface Temperature fromASTER, AVHRR or AMSR-E

NCEP: National Center for Environmental Prediction

ASTER: Advanced Spaceborn Thermal Emission and

Reflection Radiometer

AVHRR: Advanced Very High Resolusion Radiometer

AMSR: Advanced Microwave Scaning Radiometer

MODIS: Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrodiometer

PFEL: Pacific Fisheries Environmental Laboratory

Oceanic Case Studies

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Earthquake of California 2005

11

10

12

14

16

18

20

1-May 16-May 31-May 15-Jun 30-Jun 15-Jul 30-Jul 14-Aug 29-AugS

ST

deg

.c

2005 1994-2003 Sigma 2 Sigma

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1-May 16-May 31-May 15-Jun 30-Jun 15-Jul 30-Jul 14-Aug 29-Aug

Sur

face

Hea

t Flu

x (w

.m-2

) 2005

2000-2004

Time series of thermalanomalies at the epicenterof the California earthquakeshowing high values amonth before the mainevent. dashed line is the 10-year average of SST for theregion.

Temporal variation in SLHFof the California earthquakecovering the epicenter pixelshowing increase in someoccasions prior to the mainevent; dashed line is the 5-last-year average of SLHFfor the region.

Changes in SLHF

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Spatio-temporal variation in SLHF prior and after the main event of the Northern California earthquake.

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SST Anomalies

13

16 Jun 17 Jun 18 Jun

11 Jun 12 Jun 13 Jun 14 Jun 15 Jun



Chl-a concentration in the ocean areintimately linked with the SST.Sudden changes in Chl-a distributionarises from sudden changes of seathermal structure.

Variation of Chl-a

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1 Jun 2 Jun 3 Jun 4 Jun




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Upwelling Index

15

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600


Upw

ellin

g In

dex

(m3/

s/10

0m)

2005 1995-2004

0

1

2

3

4

5


Chl

8d

Com

posi

te

2005 2006-2011

Daily averaged upwellingindex for NorthernCalifornia earthquakeshowing maximum risesome days prior to themain event; dashed line isthe 10-year average ofupwelling index for theregion.

8-day averaged Chl-a forNorthern Californiaearthquake showing somehigh Chl-a matched theupwelling in terms of locationand time; dashed line is the 6-year average of Chl-a for theregion.

� Two major factors which cause rising in Chl-a concentration are oceanupwelling and sea surface temperature both of which are pre seismicindicators.


16-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1-Aug 16-Aug 31-Aug 15-Sep 30-Sep 15-Oct 30-Oct

Up

wel

ling

Ind

ex (

m3/

s/10

0m) 2004 1994-2003 Sigma

0

20

40

60

80

100


Su

rfac

e H

eat

Flu

x (w

.m-2

)

2004

10

15

20

25

30

35


Su

rfac

e T

emp

erat

ure

deg

.c

2004 1994-2003 Sigma 2 Sigma

The anomalous SLHF values before and during the earthquake of September 28, 2004; Red bar indicates the day of the main event.

Time series of surface temperature; shows several anomalies during the preparation stage and sudden fall after the main event.

Daily averaged upwelling index, showing rises before the main event.

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Variation of Chl-a

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2 Sep 5 Sep 8 Sep 14 Sep

20 Sep 21 Sep 22 Sep 28 Sep

29 Sep 1 Oct 4 Oct 7 Oct

Temporal distribution of Chl-a concentration ; the increasing trend to the day of the event andgeneral decrease in the area afterwards is obvious.


18

13

14

15

16

17

18

1-Nov 16-Nov 1-Dec 16-Dec 31-Dec 15-Jan 30-Jan

Su

rfac

e T

emp

erat

ure

deg

.c

2003 1994-2003Sigma 2 Sigma

0

40

80

120

160

200


Su

rfac

e H

eat

Flu

x (w

.m-2

)

2003 1998-2002

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300


Up

wel

ling

Ind

ex (

m3/

s/10

0m)

2003

1993-2002

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8


Ch

l-a

8d C

om

po

site

2003 2004-2006 Sigma 2 Sigma

Daily averaged upwelling index and 8-day composite Chlorophyll-a time series, showing anomalies insome occasions from one month before the main event followed by a sudden downwelling and Chl-adecrease immediately after that.

The SST and SLHF time series of the epicentral oceanic water of the earthquake of December 22, 2003generally higher before the earthquake. The effect of aftershocks during the second half of December isalso shown.

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10

15

20

25

30

35


Sur

face

Tem

pera

ture

deg

.c

2004 1994-2003

Sigma 2 Sigma

0

20

40

60

80

100


Sur

face

Hea

t Flu

x (w

.m-2

) 2004

1999-2003

FLH = LvCeUa (qs − qa)

FLH: Surface evaporation

Lv: Latent heat of condensationCe: Surface exchange coefficient for moistureUa: Surface wind speed, Qs: Saturated specific humidity at ocean surfaceQa: Air specific humidity at 2 m above the surface.

Ts: LSTε: Surface emissivity γ and δ: two parameters dependent on the Planck’s function ψ1, ψ2, and ψ3 : Referred to as atmospheric functions (AFs)

Thermal and HeatThermal and Heat

Increased Chl-a on ocean surface Increased Chl-a on ocean surface

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0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8


Ch

l-a

8d

Co

mp

osi

te

10-Yr Average Sigma 2 Sigma

-600

-400

-200

0

200


Up

we

llin

g I

nd

ex

(m

3/s

/10

0m

)

Chl-a & UpwellingChl-a & Upwelling

Increased SLHF & active faults

zones

Increased SLHF & active faults

zones

0

50

100

150

200

250

1-Jan 16-Jan 31-Jan 15-Feb 1-Mar 16-Mar 31-Mar

SL

HF

(W/m

2)

2008 2000-2007 Sigma 2 Sigma

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Earthquakes of Indonesia

No. Place Date Longitude Latitude Magnitude Focal Depth (km)

1 Simeulue, Indonesia Feb 20, 2008 95.978 E 2.778 N 7.4 35

2 Kepulauan,

Indonesia

Feb 25, 2008 100.018 E 2.351 S 7.2 35

0

50

100

150

200

250

1-Jan 16-Jan 31-Jan 15-Feb 1-Mar 16-Mar 31-Mar

SL

HF

(W/m

2)

2008 2000-2007 Sigma 2 SigmaSharp rises in SLHF values of thepixels covering the epicenter of 25th

Feb, 2008 earthquake is observablefrom the end of January to fewdays before the main event. Red baris the day of the main event.

Images of SSH retrieved fromAMSR-E in the Indian Oceanduring the Simeulue andKepulauan earthquakes ofFebruary, 2008 showingsignificant rises near epicentersone week before and during theearthquake events.

SSH and SLHF Anomalies

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Seismic studySeismic study

micro-shake detection using seismograph interpretation:

� Evaluating the shaking rate before the main events� Understanding the possible hidden fault pattern and local faulting activity by statistical analyses of the various information, related to foreshocks and aftershocks.�Discovering the time and intensity frames of the possible correlation between seismic and remote sensing precursors.

�The systematic patterns of SLHF along earthquake origins.

�Relative humidity, surface and air temperature values are warning signals of an impending earthquake (2-3 weeks prior to the main event).

�2-3 weeks before the earthquakes the productivity rate of the open ocean water exceeded the average values.

FindingsFindings

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Remote sensing techniques allow monitoring the earthquakeprecursory factors anomalies over large areas to detect tectonicactivity and understand the mechanism of earthquakepreparation processes to provide possibilities of a reliableprediction of these potential precursors in different parts of theworld.

Benefits

For further information please contact:

Shattri MansorRemote Sensing & GIS Research CentreFaculty of EngineeringUniversiti Putra Malaysia43400 UPM SerdangPhone: +6019 - 2244333E-mail: [email protected]

Q & A??

Surface Anomalies Prior to Earthquakes - FIGfig.net/pub/fig2013/ppt/ts07c/TS07C_valizadeh... · 16-05-2013 1 Surface Anomalies Prior to Earthquakes Habibeh Valizadeh, Shattri B. Mansor

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