Supreme Flour World Wheat Presentation (January 2014)

WORLD WHEATSource: US Wheat Associates monthly supply and demand report, found on

their website: http://www.uswheat.org/

The World Wheat Market

Year

Production

Consumption

Surplus (shortfall)

11/12 12/13 13/14

697 656 713

697 679 703

1 -23 10

0 2

World Production and Use

0 3

Supplies in Top Exporting Countries*

0 4*Includes U.S., Canada, Australia, Argentina, EU-27, Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan

World wheat supply & demand

Date 11/12 12/13 13/14

Supply

Trade

Demand

Ending

stocks

199 199 176

697 656 713

896 855 889

158 138 159

550 543 567

147 136 136

697 679 703

199 176 185

Exports/imports

Beginning stock

Production

Supply total

Food & seed

Feed & residual

Use tool

0 5

Global Stocks* -to-Use Ratio

0 6*Ending stocks

Global Ending Stocks and Price

0 7

Canada Situation

0 8

International Wheat Factors

Record 2013/14 world wheat crop – increase of 8.7% from last season, +57 million

tons.

Approximately 19.3% of all wheat globally goes into the feed market and resultantly the

Chicago corn / wheat spread has narrowed from US$2.30 / buschel to the current

US$1.49 / buschel.

India playing a larger role in export market – Indian production to reach 92.5 MMT, up

10% from 5-year average and second largest on record.

Black Sea exports to reach 35.3 MMT and represent 22% of world market, compared to

19% in 2012/13

0 9

Black Sea Exports

0 10

U.S. Situation

0 11

Australia Situation

0 12

Date

Opening stock

Production

Imports

489

Consumption

Exports

Closing stock

1751

1650*

3086

265

539

13/14*

Supply & demand of wheat in South Africa (‘000 tons)

0 13

Local Wheat Drivers

Limited small crop – 1,751 million tons (need to import 49% of requirement) = import

parity driven

With record world crop produced, fairly good export competition keeping a lid on prices

(quality milling wheat less abundant).

Single largest driver of local prices is the weakening currency (Rand).

0 14

0 15

0 16