Support system for spatial vulnerability assessment

Task 5 – Interplay between science, society and policy Spatial vulnerability assessment

Valutazione della vulnerabilità dei Comuni Trentini ai Cambiamenti Climatici

CLIMaticchangeimpactsonfutureAvailabilityofWAterREsourcesandhydro-geologicalrisks(CLIMAWARE)

DICAM-DipartimentodiIngegneriacivile,ambientaleemeccanica

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PhD Rocco Scolozzi, Prof. Davide Geneletti

Spatial vulnerability assessment

1. Clusteranalysisforsocialsurvey2. IPCCframeworkanddefinitions3. ExamplesatEUlevel4. SensitivityanalysisformunicipalitiesofTrentoProvince5. Adaptationcapacityanalysis6. Sectorassessment(tobefurtherdeveloped)

Cluster analysis for social survey

• Objective:tosupportstratificationofTrentoProvincesample• Maxdifferentiationamongtheclusters(max3-5groups)• Feasiblewithdataatmunicipallevel

➔Candidateclimatevariables:• variablesamongthemostrecognizableanddistinguishablebythepeople(withoutinstrumentation)

• interestingfortheirvariabilityinrecentperiods(1961-1990vs.198-2010).

CollaborationwithEmanuelaBozzini,Dep.ofSociologyandSocialResearch


• Modelingandmapping• Modelling(forelevation)andinterpolationofpointclimatedataforperiods1961-1990and198-2010(byLaviniaLaiti&Co.)

• ExtractionbyLandUseandmunicipalitylayer• Integrationintabledataofmunicipalities


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ClusterDaysC°>25

(inareeresidenziali)

averagemonthlyprecipitation(Dec-Jan-Feb)

Population2001 Municipalities

1 62,1 154,3 288’824 802 36,7 125,0 78’541 723 51,1 185,0 109’652 71

IPCC framework and definitions

IPCC framework and definitions

• Exposure:Thenatureanddegreetowhichasystemisexposedtosignificantclimaticvariations.

• Sensitivity:Thedegreetowhichasystemisaffected,eitheradverselyorbeneficially,byclimaterelatedstimuli.

• Adaptivecapacity:theabilityofanaturalorhumansystemtoadjusttopotentialdamage,totakeadvantageofopportunities,ortocopewiththeconsequences.

• Vulnerability:Thedegreetowhichasystemissusceptibleto,orunabletocopewith,adverseeffectsofclimatechange.Vulnerabilityisafunctionofthecharacter,magnitude,andrateofclimatevariationtowhichasystemisexposed,itssensitivity,anditsadaptivecapacity.

http://climatechange.lta.org

Prepare for Vulnerability

Planningforvulnerabilitytoclimatechangegenerallyinvolvesthreesteps:1. Determinewhichresourcesarevulnerabletochangingconditions.By

identifyingthemostvulnerableresources,weareabletoprioritizeourconservationactions.Thevulnerabilityofaresourceisdeterminedbyexposure,sensitivity,andtheabilitytoadapttotheimpactsofclimatechange.

2. Determinewhythoseresourcesarevulnerable.Itisnotenoughtoknowthataparticularresourceisvulnerable.Wealsomustknowwhytheresourceisvulnerable.Thisallowsustochooseconservationactionsthataremostlikelytoreducethethreatsposedbyclimatechange.

3. Usethisinformationtoguideactionsthatwillreducevulnerability,anddevelopstrategicadaptationstrategies,fostercollaborationatdifferentscales

Example: ESPON Climate

ESPON2013Programme,partlyfinancedbytheEuropeanRegionalDevelopmentFund

Climate Change and Territorial Effects onRegions and Local Economies

www.espon.eu

ESPON - European Observation Network for Territorial Development and Cohesion

Changeofannualmeantemperature

Decreaseofnumberoffrostdays

Changeofnumberofsummerdays

Changeofmeanwinterprecipitation

Changeofmeansummerprecipitation

Changeofnumberofheavyrainfalldays

Changeofannualmeanevaporation

Changeofnumberofdayswithsnowcover

Changeinoccurrenceofriverflooding

Changeofmeansealevel

ExposureExample: ESPON Climate

(changes1961-1990and2071-2100*)

*Using the IPCC climate scenario A1B

Examples from ESPONPhysical sensitivity• Settlements sensitive to flash floods• Roads and railways sensitive to flash floods• Settlements sensitive to river flooding• Roads and railways sensitive to river flooding• Airports and harbours sensitive to river flooding• Settlements sensitive to coastal flooding• Roads and railways sensitive to coastal flooding• Airports and harbours sensitive to coastal flooding

Examples from ESPON

Environmental sensitivity• Forests sensitive to forest fires• Protected natural areas • Areas prone to soil erosion • Soil organic carbon

Examples from ESPONEconomic sensitivityAgriculture sensitive to water availabilityForestry sensitive to water availabilitySummer tourism sensitive to summer temperaturesWinter tourism sensitive to snow cover changesEnergy demand sensitive to summer heatEnergy demand sensitive to winter frostEnergy supply sensitive to changing river water levels

Examples from ESPON

Social sensitivityPopulation sensitive to summer heatPopulation sensitive to coastal floodingPopulation sensitive to river floodingPopulation sensitive to flash floods

Examples from ESPON

Cultural sensitivityUNESCO Cultural World Heritage Sites sensitive to river floodingUNESCO Cultural World Heritage Sites sensitive to coastal floodingMuseums sensitive to river floodingMuseums sensitive to sea level rise

Task 5 – Interplay between science, society and policy

Climatestimuli Target IndicatorUnitofmeaure

Temperaturestress Population

Populationover65yearold N°

Days>25C° N°

Waterstress

Tourism Tourismservicespersonnel N°

Agriculture Personnel N°

Population Totalprecipitation m3

Sensitivity to climate change at municipal level

Climatestimuli Target Indicator Unitàdimisura

Waterstress

1. CapacitàdiassorbireeventualioccupatinelturismoincrisiperCC

Incidenzaaddettiaiservizialberghieriecomplementarisutotaleaddetti(eccetto

agricoltura)%

1. CapacitàdiassorbireeventualioccupatiinagricolturaincrisiperCC

Incidenzadeglioccupatiinagricoltura %

Temperaturestress1. Capacitàdigestire

popolazionepiùesposta Incidenzadellapopolazionedi65annieoltre %

Trust(istitutions) 1. Propensioneaseguireindicazionidiemergenza

Questionario:IncasodiordinedievacuazionedellaProtezioneCivilesarebbedisponibilealasciarelasuaabitazione

perundeterminatotempo?(risposta:scala1-5,es.no-certamente)

Socialnetwork 1. Capacitàditrovareunasistemazione-rifugio

Questionario:Incasodiemergenzasarebbeingradoditrovareunasistemazionetemporanea(peralcunigiorni)perleielasuafamigliain24ore,adesempiopressoparentioamici?Risposta:da1-conestremadifficoltàa5-senzaproblemi

Adaptive capacity at municipal level

Task 5 – Interplay between science, society and policy

Climatestimuli Target Indicator Definition u.m.

Esposizionestressidrico

Agriculture

GAP1domanda/offerta

Differenzatrabisognototaleedisponibilitàlordaattuale

m3

GAP1bdomanda/offertaDifferenzatrabisognototalescenarioedisponibilitàlordascenario m3

Tourism

GAP2domanda/offerta

Differenzatrabisognototaleedisponibilitàlordaattuale

m3

GAP2bdomanda/offerta

Differenzatrabisognototalescenarioedisponibilitàlordascenario

m3

Esposizionerischioalluvione

Industry

ESP1Areeproduttiveinfrastrutture Areeattualiattualmentearischio ha

ESP1bAreeproduttiveinfrastrutture

Areescenarioarischioscenario(inmancanza,rischioattuale) ha

Population

ESP2Areeresidenziali

Areeattualiattualmentearischio ha

ESP2bAreeresidenziali

Areescenarioarischioscenario(inmancanza,rischioattuale)

ha

Exposure at municipal level