NIFTY 9918 IN FOCUS Support 9830 9785 Resistance 9950 9980 Stock in Focus TATA POWER Positional Pick REPCOHOME Intraday Pick ENGINERSIN Intraday Pick CANBK Institutional Equity Research MARKET LENS September 01, 2017 1 Exchange Rs Crore BSE Equity 3,695.3 BSE Derivatives 0.41 NSE Equity 34,429.5 NSE Derivatives 7,30,518.9 Indices Absolute Change Percentage Change Domestic Last Trade Change 1-D 1-Mth YTD BSE Sensex 31,730.5 84.0 0.3% -2.6% 19.2% CNX Nifty 9,917.9 33.5 0.3% -1.9% 21.2% S&P CNX 500 8,695.0 31.8 0.4% -1.3% 24.5% SENSEX 50 10,304.4 29.0 0.3% -1.7% 22.3% International Last Trade Change 1-D 1-Mth YTD DJIA 21,948.1 55.7 0.3% -0.1% 11.1% NASDAQ 6,428.7 60.4 0.9% 1.0% 19.4% NIKKEI 19,690.5 44.3 0.2% -1.5% 3.0% HANGSENG 28,106.7 136.4 0.5% 2.1% 27.8% MSCI Emerging Mkts 1,087.7 (0.3) 0.0% 1.7% 26.1% Last Trade Change 1-D 1-Mth YTD Dr. Reddy’s Lab (ADR) 32.2 0.6 2.1% -13.8% -28.9% Tata Motors (ADR) 29.9 0.0 0.1% -14.4% -13.2% Infosys (ADR) 15.0 (0.1) -0.3% -5.7% 1.1% ICICI Bank (ADR) 9.4 0.0 0.0% -0.2% 37.6% HDFC Bank (ADR) 97.4 1.3 1.3% -1.6% 60.6% Axis Bank (GDR) 38.6 (0.5) -1.2% -3.4% 17.5% Reliance Ind (GDR) 49.5 0.9 1.7% -0.2% 56.7% ADRs / GDRs Key Commodities Last Trade Change 1-D 1-Mth YTD Brent Crude ($/bl) 52.8 (0.1) -0.2% 1.9% -7.1% Silver ($/Oz) 17.6 (0.0) -0.2% 5.0% 10.3% Gold ($/Oz) 1,319.7 (1.8) -0.1% 4.0% 15.0% Copper LME ($/MT) 6,759.5 19.5 0.3% 6.7% 22.4% Aluminium LME ($/MT) 2,098.8 29.8 1.4% 10.7% 23.2% Baltic Dry 1,181.0 (22.0) -1.8% 22.4% 22.9% COMMODITY MARKET Last Trade Change 1-D 1-Mth YTD USD/INR 63.9 64.0 -0.1% -0.4% -5.9% EUR/INR 75.7 76.4 -0.9% 0.5% 5.6% CURRENCY RATES Last Trade Change 1-D 1-Mth YTD T-Bill - 91 D 6.1 6.1 -0.6% -0.7% -1.7% 10 Year G-sec Yield 6.5 6.5 -0.2% 0.9% 0.2% RATES Category BUY SELL NET Prev FII 8,381.8 8,304.2 77.6 (12.5) DII 4,406.1 3,896.4 509.7 290.8 INVESTMENT ACTIVITY (RS. CR) EXCHANGE TURNOVER REPCOHOME (LTP: 650) BUY For today’s trade, long position can be initiated at 642 for target of Rs 705 with a strict stop loss of Rs 612. Positional Pick STOCK IN FOCUS EQUITY INDICES Intraday Picks ENGINERSIN (LTP: 155) BUY For today’s trade, long position can be initiated at Rs 154 for target of Rs 160 with a strict stop loss of Rs 152. Traders are advised to avoid early morning whipsaw. CANBK (LTP: 340) BUY For today’s trade, long position can be initiated at Rs 337 for target of Rs 349 with a strict stop loss of Rs 333. Traders are advised to avoid early morning whipsaw. Tata Power Company (TPCL) has posted an improved performance in 1QFY18 with its consolidated net profit rising by 126% YoY to Rs1.64bn (vs. Rs0.72bn in 1QFY17) due to strong performance by the coal subsidiaries, renewable business and better operational performance. Though tariff issue at Mundra UMPP and operational issues in Mumbai Licence area have been impacting TPCL’s stock performance over last 3-4 years, we believe that these issues have already been factored in the share price. We expect that the lower earnings from Mundra UMPP will continue to weigh on the overall earnings of TPCL. However, TPCL is taking measures to reduce generation cost through alternate fuel sources and monetisation of non-core investments. We prefer Tata Power as a safe bet in private space due to higher fuel security; lower merchant portion & regulated RoE for 30-40% of asset portfolio ensure steady cash-flow. We maintain our BUY recommendation on the stock with a Target Price of Rs88.
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REPCOHOME (LTP: 650) BUYFor today’s trade, long position can be initiated at 642 for target of Rs 705 with a strict stop loss of Rs 612.
Positional Pick
STOCK IN FOCUS
EQUITY INDICES
Intraday PicksENGINERSIN (LTP: 155) BUYFor today’s trade, long position can be initiated at Rs 154 for target of Rs 160 with a strict stop loss of Rs 152. Traders are advised to avoid early morning whipsaw.
CANBK (LTP: 340) BUYFor today’s trade, long position can be initiated at Rs 337 for target of Rs 349 with a strict stop loss of Rs 333. Traders are advised to
avoid early morning whipsaw.
Tata Power Company (TPCL) has posted an improved performance in 1QFY18 with its consolidated net profit rising by 126% YoY to Rs1.64bn (vs. Rs0.72bn in 1QFY17) due to strong performance by the coal subsidiaries, renewable business and better operational performance.
Though tariff issue at Mundra UMPP and operational issues in Mumbai Licence area have been impacting TPCL’s stock performance over last 3-4 years, we believe that these issues have already been factored in the share price.
We expect that the lower earnings from Mundra UMPP will continue to weigh on the overall earnings of TPCL. However, TPCL is taking measures to reduce generation cost through alternate fuel sources and monetisation of non-core investments.
We prefer Tata Power as a safe bet in private space due to higher fuel security; lower merchant portion & regulated RoE for 30-40% of asset portfolio ensure steady cash-flow. We maintain our BUY recommendation on the stock with a Target Price of Rs88.
NIFTY 9918 IN FOCUS
Support 9830
9785
Resistance 9950
9980
Stock in Focus TATA POWER
Positional Pick REPCOHOME
Intraday Pick ENGINERSIN
Intraday Pick CANBK
Institutional Equity Research
MARKET LENS
September 01, 2017
2
MARKET SYNOPSIS
f On Thursday, NSE-NIFTY remained in pressure post a firm opening, but later index reversed after taking support of previous day’s low of 9,851 level and rose to 9,925 mark before closing the session. Finally, NIFTY finished trade at 9,918 level, with the gain of 34 points.
f NSE Cash segment reported turnover of Rs34,429 crore as compared to Rs23,269 crore earlier.
f Overall market breadth remained positive, where 1000 stocks advanced against 677 declined stocks.
f Mixed trend was observed across all the sectoral indices during the day, where Energy and Realty indices emerged as top gainers with the increase of 1.2% and 1.4% respectively. However, none of the sectoral indices have reported loss of more than 0.6%.
NSE-NIFTY OUTLOOK
f In the last expiry/month, NSE-NIFTY managed to continue prior rising trend and recorded new high of 10,138 level, but later due to profit booking index failed to sustain higher levels and slipped to 9,686 mark thereafter. Later, NIFTY managed to halt further decline by a narrow range oscillation and finally, ended the series/month with the loss of 1%/1.6%. As mentioned earlier, our view will remain cautious till the time NIFTY settles below 9,980 mark (23.6% Fibonacci Retracement level of prior up-move 9,449 to 10,138). In case of any decline, its Medium-term moving average 50-DEMA (placed around 9,805 level) will continue to work as key reversal point and thereafter recent swing low (i.e. 9,686 mark) will save the index from falling. On the higher side, NIFTY will face major hurdle around 10,140 level.
f As for the day, support is placed at around 9,830 and then at 9,785 levels, while resistance is observed at 9,950 and then around at 9,980 levels.
Technical Research
NIFTY 9918 IN FOCUS
Support 9830
9785
Resistance 9950
9980
Stock in Focus TATA POWER
Positional Pick REPCOHOME
Intraday Pick ENGINERSIN
Intraday Pick CANBK
Institutional Equity Research
MARKET LENS
September 01, 2017
3
f The stock has seen a decent correction from the high of 924 levels and consistently making higher bottoms after touching the bottom at 617 levels.
f The key technical indicators and RSI has also reversed turning upwards and as the stock is in poised for a breakout from current levels.
f The stock is consistently making higher bottoms on weekly charts and it has strong support near to its 200 week average placed at 610 levels.
f Thus, for today’s trade, long position can be initiated at 642 for target of Rs 705 with a stop loss of Rs 612.
f Nifty traded negative in the first half, but saw sharp recovery with swift rollover movements to close at the high point of the day. Nifty closed up by 33 points at 9,918 levels. Among the nifty stocks 30 stocks advanced and 21 declined during the day.
f Sectorally, it was a flat day with no major movement during the day, Realty, IT and Auto sectors gained by 1.3%, 0.6% and 0.3% respectively while other sectors remained flat to negative for the day.
f Broader market indices remained positive with NIFTY 100,200 and 500 to close up by 0.3% average while midcap indices and small cap indices gained by 0.3% and 1.2% respectively.
f Nifty September futures ends with 19 points premium at 9,937 mark, while on other hand, Bank Nifty August futures ended with the premium of 36 points at 24,354 mark.
f Nifty has ended 1% down from last expiry with key supports at 9,850-9730 levels on the down side. On the higher side crossover of 10,100 levels would build fresh momentum in midcaps and small caps.
Sectoral Activity: Amongst sectoral index, NBFC and Realty remained in focus with positive momentum.
Stock Activity: Srtransfin and DLF observed build up in long position.
Derivatives Snapshot
TOP 5 PRICE GAINERS
Stock Name LTP % Price Chg % Vol Chg %OI Chg Support Pivot Resistance
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