Superforecasting by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner

8/20/2019 Superforecasting by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner

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http://links.penguinrandomhouse.com/type/affiliate/isbn/9780804136693/siteID/8001/retailerid/6/trackingcode/penguinrandomhttp://links.penguinrandomhouse.com/type/affiliate/isbn/9780804136709/siteID/8001/retailerid/22/trackingcode/PRH698C2DEE54http://links.penguinrandomhouse.com/type/affiliate/isbn/9780804136693/siteID/8001/retailerid/2/trackingcode/PRH698C2DEE54http://links.penguinrandomhouse.com/type/affiliate/isbn/9780804136709/siteID/8001/retailerid/3/trackingcode/PRH698C2DEE54http://links.penguinrandomhouse.com/type/affiliate/isbn/9780804136693/siteID/8001/retailerid/7/trackingcode/randohouseinc10663-20http://www.crownpublishing.com/


3/29

p r f ` s b j h r

^ R Q B Y J H Y B N F ^ W @ O K

—ûpbrjhrbnfstòk `s f rfrb ihhm teft w`dd lfmb yhu slfrtbr fog w`sbr.

Hob hj teb k`fots hj ibefv`hrfd sn`bonb rbvbfds ehw th `lprhvb ft

prbg`ntòk teb juturb.“

‗ FGFL KYF OW,

Obw Phrm W`lbs ibstsbddòk futehr hj K`vb fog Wfmb

—Khhg cugklbot fog khhg jhrbnfstòk frb rfrb, iut teby turo hut

th ib lfgb hj tbfnefidb sm`dds. Iy jhrnòk jhrbnfstbrs th nhlpbtb,

Wbtdhnm g`snhvbrbg weft teb sm`dds frb fog ehw teby whrm, fog te`sihhm tbfnebs teb fi`d`ty th foy òtbrbstbg rbfgbr.“

‗ ^ WB[F Y W I Y F OG ,

prbs`gbot, Web Dhok Ohw Jhuogft`ho

—Qe`d`p Wbtdhnm `s rbohwobg jhr gblhostrftòk teft lhst bxpbrts

frb oh ibttbr tefo ―gfrt-terhwòk lhombys‐ ft prbg`ntòk bdbnt`hos, wfrs, bnhohl`n nhddfpsbs, fog htebr bvbots. @o e`s ir`dd`fot obw

ihhm, Wbtdhnm hjjbrs f lune lhrb ehpbjud lbssfkb, ifsbg honb fkfò

ho e`s hwo krhuogirbfmòk rbsbfrne. Eb sehws teft nbrtfò pbhpdb

nfo jhrbnfst bvbots w`te fnnurfny lune ibttbr tefo nefonb‗fog

sh, pbrefps, nfo teb rbst hj us, `j wb bludftb teb nr`t`nfd teòmòk

hj tebsb ―supbrjhrbnfstbrs.‐ Web sbdj-blphwbrlbot kborb ghbso‐t kbt

foy slfrtbr fog lhrb shpe`st`nftbg tefo te`s.“


4/29

—ûpbrjhrbnfstòk `s teb rfrb ihhm teft `s ihte snehdfrdy fog bokfk-

òk. Web dbsshos frb sn`bot`stn, nhlpbddòk, fog bohrlhusdy prfn-

t`nfd. Foyhob weh `s ò teb jhrbnfstòk iusòbss‗fog teft‐s fdd hj

us‗sehudg grhp weft teby frb ghòk fog rbfg `t.“

‗ L @ NE F BD C . L F R IH R ^ ^ @ O ,

ebfg, Kdhifd Jòfon`fd ^trftbk`bs, Nrbg`t û`ssb

—Webrb `so‐t f shn`fd sn`bot`st ò teb whrdg @ fgl`rb lhrb tefo Qe`d

Wbtdhnm.“

‗ W @ L E F Y J H Y G ,

futehr hj Web Rogbrnhvbr Bnhohl`st

—Jrhl teb Hrfndb hj Gbdpe` th lbg`bvfd fstrhdhkbrs th lhgbro hvbr-

nhostgbot bxpbrts, jhrbnfstbrs efvb ibbo b`tebr gbdugbg hr jrfugu-

dbot. Jhr teb strst t`lb, ûpbrjhrbnfstòk rbvbfds teb sbnrbt hj lfmòk

ehobst, rbd`fidb, bjjbnt`vb, usbjud cugklbots fihut teb juturb.“‗ F F Y H O IY H [ O ,

ne`bj r`sm hjj`nbr, FVY Nfp`tfd Lfofkblbot, fog

futehr hj Web Qhmbr Jfnb hj [fdd ^trbbt

—^hnrftbs efg teb òs`ket ò ―mohw teysbdj,‐ Mfeoblfo gbd`vbrbg teb

sn`bonb ò Weòmòk, Jfst fog ^dhw, fog ohw Wbtdhnm efs shlbteòk

wb nfo fdd fppdy ò ûpbrjhrbnfstòk.“

‗ CR F O D R @ ^ QBY BS ,

kdhifd ebfg, RI^ Krhup Ybsbfrne


5/29

Nhpyr`ket © 9162 iy Qe`d`p Wbtdhnm Nhosudtòk, @on., fog Nhoofuket ^trbbt, @on.

Fdd r`kets rbsbrvbg.

Quid`sebg ò teb Ro`tbg ^tftbs iy Nrhwo Quid`sebrs,

fo `lpròt hj teb Nrhwo Quid`seòk Krhup,

f g`v`s`ho hj Qbokuò Yfoghl Ehusb DDN, Obw Phrm.

www.nrhwopuid`seòk.nhl

NYH[O fog teb Nrhwo nhdhpeho frb rbk`stbrbgtrfgblfrms hj Qbokuò Yfoghl Ehusb DDN.

Dìrfry hj Nhokrbss Nftfdhkòk-̀ o-Quid`nft`ho Gftf

]N@Q gftf\

@ÎO 0;5-1-5176->::0->

b@ÎO 0;5-1-5176->:;1-0

Qròtbg ò teb Ro`tbg ^tftbs hj Flbr`nf

@ddustrft`hos iy Chb DbLhoo`br

Cfnmbt gbs`ko iy

9 7 : 5 61 0 ; 2 > 6

J`rst Bg`t`ho


6/29

6

Fo Hpt`l`st`n ^mbpt`n

[b frb fdd jhrbnfstbrs. [ebo wb teòm fihut nefokòk chis, kbt-

tòk lfrr`bg, iuyòk f ehlb, lfmòk fo òvbstlbot, dfuone-

òk f prhgunt, hr rbt`ròk, wb gbn`gb ifsbg ho ehw wb bxpbnt tebjuturb w`dd uojhdg. Websb bxpbntft`hos frb jhrbnfsts. Hjtbo wb gh hur

hwo jhrbnfstòk. Iut webo i`k bvbots efppbo‗lfrmbts nrfse, wfrs

dhhl, dbfgbrs trblidb‗ wb turo th teb bxpbrts, tehsb ò teb mohw.

[b dhhm th pbhpdb d`mb Whl Jr`bglfo.

@j yhu frb f [e`tb Ehusb stfjjbr, yhu l`ket stog e`l ò teb

Hvfd Hjstnb w`te teb prbs`gbot hj teb Ro`tbg ^tftbs, tfdmòk fihut

teb L`ggdb Bfst. @j yhu frb f Jhrtuob 211 NBH, yhu l`ket spht e`l

ò Gfvhs, nefttòk ò teb dhuokb w`te ebgkb juog i`dd`hof`rbs fog

^fug` prònbs. Fog ̀ j yhu gho‐t jrbqubot teb [e`tb Ehusb hr swfomy

^w`ss ehtbds, yhu nfo rbfg e`s Obw Phrm W`lbs nhdulos fog ibstsbdd-

òk ihhms teft tbdd yhu weft‐s efppboòk ohw, wey, fog weft w`dd

nhlb obxt.6 L`dd`hos gh.

D`mb Whl Jr`bglfo, I`dd Jdfnm jhrbnfsts kdhifd bvbots. Iut tebrb`s f dht dbss gblfog jhr e`s òs`kets.

Jhr ybfrs, I`dd whrmbg jhr teb R^ Gbpfrtlbot hj Fkr`nudturb ò

Fr`zhof‗—pfrt p`nm-fog-sehvbd whrm, pfrt sprbfgsebbt“‗iut ohw

eb d`vbs ò Mbfroby, Obirfsmf. I`dd `s f oft`vb Nhroeusmbr. Eb krbw

up ò Lfg`sho, Obirfsmf, f jfrl thwo webrb e`s pfrbots hwobg fog

puid`sebg teb Lfg`sho ^tfr- Lf`d , f obwspfpbr w`te dhts hj sthr`bs

fihut dhnfd sphrts fog nhuoty jf`rs. Eb wfs f khhg stugbot ò e`ke

e d g e i e d j ` g j e


7/29

9 supbrjhrbnfstòk

Fr`zhof. Eb wfs f`lòk jhr f QeG ò lfte, iut eb rbfd`zbg `t wfs

ibyhog e`s fi`d`t`bs‗—@ efg ly ohsb ruiibg ò ly d`l`tft`hos“ `s

ehw eb puts `t‗fog eb grhppbg hut. @t wfso‐t wfstbg t`lb, ehwbvbr.Ndfssbs ò hro`tehdhky lfgb I`dd fo fv`g i`rg- wftnebr, fog ibnfusb

Fr`zhof `s f krbft pdfnb th sbb i`rgs, eb g`g stbdgwhrm pfrt-t`lb jhr

sn`bot`sts, tebo kht f chi w`te teb Gbpfrtlbot hj Fkr`nudturb fog

stfybg jhr f we`db.

I`dd `s stjty-stvb fog rbt`rbg, fdtehuke eb sfys `j shlbhob hjjbrbg

e`l f chi eb whudg nhos`gbr `t. ^h eb efs jrbb t`lb. Fog eb spbogs

shlb hj `t jhrbnfstòk.I`dd efs foswbrbg rhukedy terbb euogrbg qubst`hos d`mb —[`dd

Yuss`f hjstn`fddy foobx fgg`t`hofd Rmrfò`fo tbrr`thry ò teb obxt

terbb lhotes8“ fog —@o teb obxt ybfr, w`dd foy nhuotry w`tegrfw

jrhl teb burhzhob8“ Weby frb qubst`hos teft lfttbr. Fog teby‐rb

g`jstnudt. Nhrphrft`hos, ifoms, blifss`bs, fog òtbdd`kbonb fkbon`bs

strukkdb th foswbr sune qubst`hos fdd teb t`lb. —[`dd Ohrte Mhrbf

gbthoftb f oundbfr gbv`nb ibjhrb teb bog hj te`s ybfr8“ —Ehw lfoy

fgg`t`hofd nhuotr`bs w`dd rbphrt nfsbs hj teb Bihdf v`rus ò teb obxt

b`ket lhotes8“ —[`dd @og`f hr Irfz`d ibnhlb f pbrlfobot lblibr hj

teb RO ^bnur`ty Nhuon`d ò teb obxt twh ybfrs8“ ^hlb hj teb qubs-

t`hos frb ghwor`ket hisnurb, ft dbfst jhr lhst hj us. —[`dd OFWH

òv`tb obw nhuotr`bs th chò teb Lblibrse`p Fnt`ho Qdfo (LFQ)

ò teb obxt oòb lhotes8“ —[`dd teb Murg`stfo Ybk`hofd Khvbro-lbot ehdg f rbjbrbogul ho oft`hofd ògbpbogbonb te`s ybfr8“ —@j

f oho-Neòbsb tbdbnhlluo`nft`hos strl wòs f nhotrfnt th prhv`gb

@otbrobt sbrv`nbs ò teb êfokef` Jrbb Wrfgb Shob ò teb obxt twh

ybfrs, w`dd Neòbsb n`t`zbos efvb fnnbss th Jfnbihhm fog/hr Ww`ttbr8“

[ebo I`dd strst sbbs hob hj tebsb qubst`hos, eb lfy efvb oh ndub ehw

th foswbr `t. —[eft ho bfrte `s teb êfokef` Jrbb Wrfgb Shob8“ eb

lfy teòm. Iut eb ghbs e`s ehlbwhrm. Eb kftebrs jfnts, ifdfonbs

d e` g d


8/29

Fo Hpt`l`st`n ^mbpt`n >

sefrb e`s tehukets ho NOO. Eb efs obvbr ibbo òv`tbg th Gfvhs th

s`t ho f pfobd w`te Whl Jr`bglfo. Fog teft‐s uojhrtuoftb. Ibnfusb

I`dd Jdfnm `s f rblfrmfidb jhrbnfstbr. [b mohw teft ibnfusb bfne hobhj I`dd‐s prbg`nt`hos efs ibbo gftbg, rbnhrgbg, fog fssbssbg jhr fnnu-

rfny iy ̀ ogbpbogbot sn`bot`stn hisbrvbrs. E`s trfnm rbnhrg ̀ s bxnbddbot.

I`dd `s oht fdhob. Webrb frb tehusfogs hj htebrs foswbròk teb

sflb qubst`hos. Fdd frb vhduotbbrs. Lhst frbo‐t fs khhg fs I`dd, iut

fihut 9% frb. Weby òndugb bokòbbrs fog dfwybrs, frt`sts fog sn`bo-

t`sts, [fdd ^trbbtbrs fog Lfò ^trbbtbrs, prhjbsshrs fog stugbots. [b

w`dd lbbt lfoy hj tebl, òndugòk f lfteblft`n`fo, f stdllfmbr,fog shlb rbt`rbbs bfkbr th sefrb teb`r uogbrusbg tfdbots. @ nfdd tebl

supbrjhrbnfstbrs ibnfusb teft ̀ s weft teby frb. Ybd`fidb bv`gbonb prhvbs

`t. Bxpdfòòk wey teby‐rb sh khhg, fog ehw htebrs nfo dbfro th gh

weft teby gh, `s ly khfd ò te`s ihhm.

Ehw hur dhw-prhstdb supbrjhrbnfstbrs nhlpfrb w`te nbrbirfd nb-

dbir`t`bs d`mb Whl Jr`bglfo `s fo òtr`kuòk qubst`ho, iut `t nfo‐t ib

foswbrbg ibnfusb teb fnnurfny hj Jr`bglfo‐s jhrbnfstòk efs obvbr

ibbo r`khrhusdy tbstbg. Hj nhursb Jr`bglfo‐s jfos fog nr`t`ns efvb

hpò`hos hob wfy hr teb htebr‗—eb of`dbg teb Frfi ^pròk“ hr —eb

snrbwbg up ho teb 911> òvfs`ho hj @rfq“ hr —eb wfs prbsn`bot ho

OFWH bxpfos`ho.“ Iut tebrb frb oh efrg jfnts fihut Whl Jr`bg-

lfo‐s trfnm rbnhrg, cust bogdbss hpò`hos‗fog hpò`hos ho hpò-

`hos.9

Fog teft ̀ s iusòbss fs usufd. Bvbry gfy, teb obws lbg`f gbd`vbrjhrbnfsts w`tehut rbphrtòk, hr bvbo fsmòk, ehw khhg teb jhrbnfst-

brs weh lfgb teb jhrbnfsts rbfddy frb. Bvbry gfy, nhrphrft`hos fog

khvbrolbots pfy jhr jhrbnfsts teft lfy ib prbsn`bot hr whrtedbss hr

shlbteòk ò ibtwbbo. Fog bvbry gfy, fdd hj us‗dbfgbrs hj oft`hos,

nhrphrftb bxbnut`vbs, òvbsthrs, fog vhtbrs‗lfmb nr`t`nfd gbn`s`hos

ho teb ifs`s hj jhrbnfsts wehsb qufd`ty `s uomohwo. Ifsbifdd lfo-

fkbrs whudgo‐t grbfl hj kbttòk hut teb nebnmihhm th e`rb f pdfybr

` e d ` j ` ` B j


9/29

7 supbrjhrbnfstòk

th teb jhrbnfstbrs weh ebdp us lfmb gbn`s`hos teft lfttbr jfr lhrb

tefo foy ifsbifdd kflb, wb‐rb nhotbot th ib `kohrfot.>

@o teft d`ket, rbdyòk ho I`dd Jdfnm‐s jhrbnfsts dhhms qu`tb rbfsho-fidb. @ogbbg, rbdyòk ho teb jhrbnfsts hj lfoy rbfgbrs hj te`s ihhm

lfy prhvb qu`tb rbfshofidb, jhr `t turos hut teft jhrbnfstòk `s oht f

—yhu efvb `t hr yhu gho‐t“ tfdbot. @t `s f sm`dd teft nfo ib nudt`vftbg.

We`s ihhm w`dd sehw yhu ehw.

WEB HOB FIHRW WEB NE@LQ

@ wfot th sph`d teb chmb, sh @‐dd k`vb fwfy teb puone dòb3 teb fvbrfkb

bxpbrt wfs rhukedy fs fnnurftb fs f gfrt-terhwòk ne`lpfozbb.

Phu‐vb prhifidy ebfrg teft hob ibjhrb. @t‐s jflhus‗ò shlb n`r-

ndbs, òjflhus. @t efs phppbg up ò teb Obw Phrm W`lbs , teb [fdd

^trbbt Churofd , teb Jòfon`fd W`lbs , teb Bnhohl`st , fog htebr hutdbts

frhuog teb whrdg. @t khbs d`mb te`s3 F rbsbfrnebr kftebrbg f i`k krhup

hj bxpbrts‗fnfgbl`ns, puog`ts, fog teb d`mb‗th lfmb tehusfogs

hj prbg`nt`hos fihut teb bnhohly, sthnms, bdbnt`hos, wfrs, fog htebr

`ssubs hj teb gfy. W`lb pfssbg, fog webo teb rbsbfrnebr nebnmbg teb

fnnurfny hj teb prbg`nt`hos, eb jhuog teft teb fvbrfkb bxpbrt g`g

fihut fs wbdd fs rfoghl kubssòk. Bxnbpt teft‐s oht teb puone dòb

ibnfusb —rfoghl kubssòk“ `so‐t juooy. Web puone dòb `s fihut fgfrt-terhwòk ne`lpfozbb. Ibnfusb ne`lpfozbbs frb juooy.

@ fl teft rbsbfrnebr fog jhr f we`db @ g`go‐t lòg teb chmb. Ly

stugy wfs teb lhst nhlprbebos`vb fssbsslbot hj bxpbrt cugklbot ò

teb sn`bot`stn d`tbrfturb. @t wfs f dhok sdhk teft thhm fihut twboty ybfrs,

jrhl 6057 th 9117, fog teb rbsudts wbrb jfr r`nebr fog lhrb nhostrun-

t`vb tefo teb puone dòb sukkbstbg. Iut @ g`go‐t lòg teb chmb ibnfusb

`t rf`sbg fwfrbobss hj ly rbsbfrne (fog, ybs, sn`bot`sts sfvhr teb`r stj-

` j j ) F g @ dj e g g e dg —g


10/29

Fo Hpt`l`st`n ^mbpt`n 2

@ fdsh g`go‐t lòg ibnfusb teb chmb lfmbs f vfd`g phòt. Hpbo

foy obwspfpbr, wftne foy WZ obws sehw, fog yhu stog bxpbrts weh

jhrbnfst weft‐s nhlòk. ^hlb frb nfut`hus. Lhrb frb ihdg fog nhost-gbot. F efogjud ndf`l th ib Hdylp`fo v`s`hofr`bs fidb th sbb gbnfgbs

òth teb juturb. [`te jbw bxnbpt`hos, teby frb oht ò jrhot hj teb

nflbrfs ibnfusb teby phssbss foy prhvbo sm`dd ft jhrbnfstòk. Fnnu-

rfny ̀ s sbdghl bvbo lbot`hobg. Hdg jhrbnfsts frb d`mb hdg obws‗shho

jhrkhttbo‗fog puog`ts frb fdlhst obvbr fsmbg th rbnhon`db weft

teby sf`g w`te weft fntufddy efppbobg. Web hob uogbo`fidb tfdbot

teft tfdmòk ebfgs efvb `s teb`r sm`dd ft tbddòk f nhlpbddòk sthry w`tenhov`nt`ho, fog teft `s bohuke. Lfoy efvb ibnhlb wbfdtey pbggdòk

jhrbnfstòk hj uotbstbg vfdub th nhrphrftb bxbnut`vbs, khvbrolbot hj-

stn`fds, fog hrgòfry pbhpdb weh whudg obvbr teòm hj swfddhwòk

lbg`nòb hj uomohwo bjstnfny fog sfjbty iut weh rhutòbdy pfy jhr

jhrbnfsts teft frb fs gui`hus fs bd`x`rs shdg jrhl teb ifnm hj f wfkho.

Websb pbhpdb‗fog teb`r nusthlbrs‗gbsbrvb f ougkb ò teb rìs. @

wfs efppy th sbb ly rbsbfrne usbg th k`vb t̀ th tebl.

Iut @ rbfd`zbg teft fs whrg hj ly whrm sprbfg, ̀ ts fppfrbot lbfo-

òk wfs lutftòk. [eft ly rbsbfrne efg sehwo wfs teft teb fvbrfkb

bxpbrt efg ghob d`ttdb ibttbr tefo kubssòk ho lfoy hj teb phd`t`nfd

fog bnhohl`n qubst`hos @ efg phsbg. —Lfoy“ ghbs oht bqufd fdd. @t

wfs bfs`bst th ibft nefonb ho teb sehrtbst-rfokb qubst`hos teft hody

rbqu`rbg dhhmòk hob ybfr hut, fog fnnurfny jbdd hjj teb jurtebr hut bx-pbrts tr`bg th jhrbnfst‗fpprhfneòk teb gfrt-terhwòk-ne`lpfozbb

dbvbd terbb th stvb ybfrs hut. Weft wfs fo `lphrtfot stogòk. @t tbdds

us shlbteòk fihut teb d`l`ts hj bxpbrt`sb ò f nhlpdbx whrdg‗fog

teb d`l`ts ho weft `t l`ket ib phssìdb jhr bvbo supbrjhrbnfstbrs th

fne`bvb. Iut fs ò teb ne`dgrbo‐s kflb hj —tbdbpehob,“ ò we`ne f

perfsb `s we`spbrbg th hob ne`dg weh pfssbs `t ho th fohtebr, fog

sh ho, fog bvbryhob `s sehnmbg ft teb bog th g`snhvbr ehw lune `t

e e g e d id g ` e dd


11/29

: supbrjhrbnfstòk

bxpbrt jhrbnfsts frb usbdbss,“ we`ne `s ohosbosb. ^hlb vfr`ft`hos wbrb

bvbo nrugbr‗d`mb —bxpbrts mohw oh lhrb tefo ne`lpfozbbs.“ Ly

rbsbfrne efg ibnhlb f ifnmsthp rbjbrbonb jhr oè`d`sts weh sbb tebjuturb fs òebrbotdy uoprbg`ntfidb fog mohw-ohteòk phpud`sts weh

òs`st ho prbnbgòk —bxpbrt“ w`te —sh-nfddbg.“

^h @ t`rbg hj teb chmb. Ly rbsbfrne g`g oht supphrt tebsb lhrb

bxtrblb nhondus`hos, ohr g`g @ jbbd foy fjsto`ty jhr tebl. Whgfy, teft

`s fdd teb lhrb trub.

Webrb ̀ s pdboty hj rhhl th stfmb hut rbfshofidb phs`t`hos ibtwbbo

teb gbiuombrs fog teb gbjbogbrs hj bxpbrts fog teb`r jhrbnfsts. Hoteb hob efog, teb gbiuombrs efvb f phòt. Webrb frb sefgy pbggdbrs

hj qubst`hofidb òs`kets ò teb jhrbnfstòk lfrmbtpdfnb. Webrb frb

fdsh d`l`ts th jhrbs`ket teft lfy cust oht ib surlhuotfidb. Hur gbs`rb

th rbfne òth teb juturb w`dd fdwfys bxnbbg hur krfsp. Iut gbiuom-

brs kh thh jfr webo teby g`sl`ss fdd jhrbnfstòk fs f jhhd‐s brrfog.

@ ibd`bvb `t `s phssìdb th sbb òth teb juturb, ft dbfst ò shlb s`tuf-

t`hos fog th shlb bxtbot, fog teft foy ̀ otbdd`kbot, hpbo-lògbg, fog

efrgwhrmòk pbrsho nfo nudt`vftb teb rbqu`s`tb sm`dds.

Nfdd lb fo —hpt`l`st`n smbpt`n.“

WEB ^MBQW@N

Wh uogbrstfog teb —smbpt`n“ efdj hj teft dfibd, nhos`gbr f yhuok Wu-

o`s`fo lfo puseòk f whhgbo efognfrt dhfgbg w`te jru`ts fog vbk-

btfidbs ghwo f gusty rhfg th f lfrmbt ò teb Wuo`s`fo thwo hj ^`g`

Ihuz`g. [ebo teb lfo wfs terbb, e`s jftebr g`bg. Eb supphrts e`s

jfl`dy iy ihrrhwòk lhoby th stdd e`s nfrt, ehpòk th bfro bohuke

sbddòk teb prhgunb th pfy hjj teb gbit fog efvb f d`ttdb dbjt hvbr. @t‐s

teb sflb kròg bvbry gfy. Iut te`s lhroòk, teb phd`nb fpprhfne teb

g e ‐ ` m e` d i e e ` d g


12/29

Fo Hpt`l`st`n ^mbpt`n ;

eb efs oh lhoby. F phd`nbwhlfo sdfps e`l fog òsudts e`s gbfg jf-

tebr. Weby tfmb e`s snfdbs fog e`s nfrt. Web lfo khbs th f thwo hjstnb

th nhlpdfò. Eb `s thdg teb hjstn`fd `s iusy ò f lbbtòk. Eul`d`ftbg,jur`hus, phwbrdbss, teb lfo dbfvbs.

Eb rbturos w`te jubd. Huts`gb teb thwo hjstnb eb ghusbs e`lsbdj,

d`kets f lftne, fog iuros.

Hody teb nhondus`ho hj te`s sthry `s uousufd. Webrb frb nhuotdbss

phhr strbbt vboghrs ò Wuo`s`f fog fnrhss teb Frfi whrdg. Qhd`nb nhr-

rupt`ho `s r`jb, fog eul`d`ft`hos d`mb tehsb ò`ntbg ho te`s lfo frb

f gf`dy hnnurrbonb. Weby lfttbr th oh hob fs`gb jrhl teb phd`nb fogteb`r v`nt`ls.

Iut te`s pfrt`nudfr eul`d`ft`ho, ho Gbnblibr 6;, 9161, nfusbg

Lheflbg Ihufz`z`, fkbg twboty-s`x, th sbt e`lsbdj ho strb, fog

Ihufz`z`‐s sbdj-`llhdft`ho spfrmbg prhtbsts. Web phd`nb rbsphogbg

w`te typ`nfd irutfd`ty. Web prhtbsts sprbfg. Ehpòk th fssufkb teb

puid`n, teb g`ntfthr hj Wuo`s`f, Qrbs`gbot Sòb bd- Fi`gòb Ibo Fd`,

v`s`tbg Ihufz`z` ò teb ehsp`tfd.

Ihufz`z` g`bg ho Cfoufry 7, 9166. Web uorbst krbw. Ho Cfoufry

67, Ibo Fd` bg th f nusey bx`db ò ^fug` Frfi`f, bogòk e`s twboty-

terbb-ybfr mdbpthnrfny.

Web Frfi whrdg wftnebg, stuoobg. Webo prhtbsts bruptbg ò

Bkypt, Dìyf, ^yr`f, Chrgfo, Muwf`t, fog Iferfò. Fjtbr terbb gb-

nfgbs ò phwbr, teb Bkypt`fo g`ntfthr Ehso` Luifrfm wfs gr`vbojrhl hjstnb. Bdsbwebrb, prhtbsts swbddbg òth rbibdd`hos, rbibdd`hos òth

n`v`d wfrs. We`s wfs teb Frfi ^pròk‗fog `t stfrtbg w`te hob phhr

lfo, oh g`jjbrbot jrhl nhuotdbss htebrs, ibòk efrfssbg iy phd`nb, fs

sh lfoy efvb ibbo, ibjhrb fog sònb, w`te oh fppfrbot r`ppdb bjjbnts.

@t `s hob teòk th dhhm ifnmwfrg fog smbtne f ofrrft`vb frn, fs @

g`g ebrb, nhoobntòk Lheflbg Ihufz`z` th fdd teb bvbots teft hwbg

hut hj e`s dhobdy prhtbst. Whl Jr`bglfo, d`mb lfoy bd`tb puog`ts, `s

m`dd g e j ` ` d d ` e L`ggd B


13/29

5 supbrjhrbnfstòk

Obw Phrm W`lbs nhrrbsphogbot ò Dbifoho. Iut nhudg bvbo Whl

Jr`bglfo, `j eb efg ibbo prbsbot teft jftfd lhroòk, efvb pbbrbg

òth teb juturb fog jhrbsbbo teb sbdj-`llhdft`ho, teb uorbst, teb thp-pdòk hj teb Wuo`s`fo g`ntfthr, fog fdd teft jhddhwbg8 Hj nhursb oht.

Oh hob nhudg. Lfyib, k`vbo ehw lune Jr`bglfo mobw fihut teb

rbk`ho, eb whudg efvb lusbg teft phvbrty fog uoblpdhylbot wbrb

e`ke, teb oulibr hj gbspbrftb yhuok pbhpdb wfs krhwòk, nhrrup-

t`ho wfs rflpfot, rbprbss`ho wfs rbdbotdbss, fog tebrbjhrb Wuo`s`f

fog htebr Frfi nhuotr`bs wbrb phwgbr mbks wf`tòk th idhw. Iut

fo hisbrvbr nhudg efvb grfwo bxfntdy teb sflb nhondus`ho teb ybfribjhrb. Fog teb ybfr ibjhrb teft. @ogbbg, yhu nhudg efvb sf`g teft

fihut Wuo`s`f, Bkypt, fog sbvbrfd htebr nhuotr`bs jhr gbnfgbs. Weby

lfy efvb ibbo phwgbr mbks iut teby obvbr idbw‗uot`d Gbnbl-

ibr 6;, 9161, webo teb phd`nb pusebg teft hob phhr lfo thh jfr.

@o 60;9 teb Flbr`nfo lbtbhrhdhk`st Bgwfrg Dhrboz wrhtb

f pfpbr w`te fo frrbstòk t`tdb3 —Qrbg`ntfi`d`ty3 Ghbs teb Jdfp hj f

Iuttbry‐s [òks ò Irfz`d ^bt Hjj f Whrofgh ò Wbxfs8“ F gbnfgb

bfrd`br, Dhrboz efg g`snhvbrbg iy fnn`gbot teft tòy gftf botry vfr`f-

t`hos ò nhlputbr s`ludft`hos hj wbftebr pfttbros‗d`mb rbpdfnòk

1.21:69; w`te 1.21:‗nhudg prhgunb grflft`nfddy g`jjbrbot dhok-

tbrl jhrbnfsts. @t wfs fo ̀ os`ket teft whudg ̀ osp`rb —nefhs tebhry“3 ̀ o

ohodòbfr systbls d`mb teb ftlhspebrb, bvbo slfdd nefokbs ò ò`t`fd

nhog`t`hos nfo luserhhl th bohrlhus prhphrt`hos. ^h, ò pròn`pdb,f dhob iuttbry ò Irfz`d nhudg fp `ts wòks fog sbt hjj f throfgh ò

Wbxfs‗bvbo tehuke swfrls hj htebr Irfz`d`fo iuttbr`bs nhudg fp

jrfot`nfddy teb`r wehdb d`vbs fog obvbr nfusb f oht`nbfidb kust f jbw

l`dbs fwfy. Hj nhursb Dhrboz g`go‐t lbfo teft teb iuttbry —nfusbs“

teb throfgh ò teb sflb sbosb teft @ nfusb f wòbkdfss th irbfm webo

@ e`t `t w`te f efllbr. Eb lbfot teft `j teft pfrt`nudfr iuttbry

efgo‐t fppbg `ts wòks ft teft lhlbot, teb uojftehlfidy nhlpdbx

m j e ` ` g ` dg e i e g


14/29


Frfi ^pròk l`ket obvbr efvb efppbobg, ft dbfst oht webo fog fs `t

g`g, `j teb phd`nb efg cust dbt Lheflbg Ihufz`z` sbdd e`s jru`ts fog

vbkbtfidbs teft lhroòk ò 9161.Bgwfrg Dhrboz se`jtbg sn`bot`stn hpò`ho thwfrg teb v`bw teft

tebrb frb efrg d`l`ts ho prbg`ntfi`d`ty, f gbbpdy pe`dhshpe`nfd qubs-

t`ho.7 Jhr nbotur`bs, sn`bot`sts efg supphsbg teft krhwòk mohwd-

bgkb lust dbfg th krbftbr prbg`ntfi`d`ty ibnfusb rbfd`ty wfs d`mb f

ndhnm‗fo fwbshlbdy i`k fog nhlpd`nftbg ndhnm iut st`dd f ndhnm‗

fog teb lhrb sn`bot`sts dbfrobg fihut `ts òofrgs, ehw teb kbfrs

kròg thkbtebr, ehw teb wb`kets fog spròks juont`ho, teb ibttbr tebynhudg nfpturb `ts hpbrft`hos w`te gbtbrlò`st`n bquft`hos fog prbg`nt

weft t̀ whudg gh. @o 6567 teb Jrbone lfteblft`n`fo fog fstrhohlbr

Q`brrb-^`lho Dfpdfnb thhm te`s grbfl th `ts dhk`nfd bxtrblb3

[b lfy rbkfrg teb prbsbot stftb hj teb uo`vbrsb fs teb bjjbnt

hj `ts pfst fog teb nfusb hj `ts juturb. Fo òtbddbnt we`ne ft f

nbrtfò lhlbot whudg mohw fdd jhrnbs teft sbt ofturb ò lh-

t`ho, fog fdd phs`t`hos hj fdd `tbls hj we`ne ofturb `s nhlphsbg,

`j te`s òtbddbnt wbrb fdsh vfst bohuke th suil`t tebsb gftf th

fofdys`s, `t whudg blirfnb ò f sòkdb jhrludf teb lhvblbots

hj teb krbftbst ihg`bs hj teb uo`vbrsb fog tehsb hj teb tò`bst

fthl= jhr sune fo òtbddbnt ohteòk whudg ib uonbrtfò fog teb

juturb cust d`mb teb pfst whudg ib prbsbot ibjhrb `ts bybs.

Dfpdfnb nfddbg e`s `lfkòfry bot`ty f —gblho.“ @j `t mobw bvbry-

teòk fihut teb prbsbot, Dfpdfnb tehuket, t̀ nhudg prbg`nt bvbryteòk

fihut teb juturb. @t whudg ib hlo`sn`bot.2

Dhrboz phurbg nhdg rfòwftbr ho teft grbfl. @j teb ndhnm syl-

ihd`zbs pbrjbnt Dfpdfnbfo prbg`ntfi`d`ty, `ts hpphs t̀b `s teb Dhrboz`fo

ndhug. E`ke snehhd sn`bonb tbdds us teft ndhugs jhrl webo wftbr

d g g ` d We` g ` d i


15/29

61 supbrjhrbnfstòk

ho nhlpdbx jbbgifnm òtbrfnt`hos flhok grhpdbts. Wh nfpturb tebsb

òtbrfnt`hos, nhlputbr lhgbdbrs obbg bquft`hos teft frb e`kedy sbo-

s`t`vb th tòy iuttbry-bjjbnt brrhrs ò gftf nhddbnt`ho. ^h bvbo `j wbdbfro fdd teft `s mohwfidb fihut ehw ndhugs jhrl, wb w`dd oht ib fidb

th prbg`nt teb sefpb f pfrt`nudfr ndhug w`dd tfmb. [b nfo hody wf`t

fog sbb. @o hob hj e`sthry‐s krbft `rho`bs, sn`bot`sts thgfy mohw vfstdy

lhrb tefo teb`r nhddbfkubs f nbotury fkh, fog phssbss vfstdy lhrb

gftf-nruoneòk phwbr, iut teby frb lune dbss nhostgbot ò teb prhs-

pbnts jhr pbrjbnt prbg`ntfi`d`ty.

We`s `s f i`k rbfsho jhr teb —smbpt`n“ efdj hj ly —hpt`l`st`n smbp-t`n“ stfonb. [b d`vb ò f whrdg webrb teb fnt`hos hj hob obfrdy phw-

brdbss lfo nfo efvb r`ppdb bjjbnts frhuog teb whrdg‗r`ppdbs teft

fjjbnt us fdd th vfryòk gbkrbbs. F whlfo d`vòk ò f Mfosfs N`ty

suiuri lfy teòm Wuo`s`f `s fohtebr pdfobt, fog ebr d`jb efs oh nho-

obnt`ho th `t, iut `j seb wbrb lfrr`bg th fo f`r jhrnb ofv`kfthr weh

`bs hut hj teb obfriy [e`tblfo F`r Jhrnb Ifsb, seb l`ket ib sur-

pr`sbg th dbfro teft hob hisnurb Wuo`s`fo‐s fnt`hos dbg th prhtbsts,

teft dbg th r`hts, teft dbg th teb thppdòk hj f g`ntfthr, teft dbg th

prhtbsts ò Dìyf, teft dbg th f n`v`d wfr, teft dbg th teb 9169 OFWH

òtbrvbot`ho, teft dbg th ebr eusifog ghgkòk fot`f`rnrfjt strb hvbr

Wr`phd`. Weft‐s fo bfs`dy trfnbfidb nhoobnt`ho. Hjtbo teb nhoobnt`hos

frb efrgbr th spht, iut teby frb fdd frhuog us, ò teòks d`mb teb pr`nb

wb pfy ft teb kfs stft`ho hr teb dfyhjjs ghwo teb strbbt. @o f whrdg webrb f iuttbry ò Irfz`d nfo lfmb teb g`jjbrbonb ibtwbbo cust fo-

htebr suooy gfy ò Wbxfs fog f throfgh tbfròk terhuke f thwo, `t‐s

l`sku`gbg th teòm foyhob nfo sbb vbry jfr òth teb juturb.:

WEB HQW@L@^W

I ` ` e` ` e d` ` g` i`d` g `


16/29


Nrfom up teb l`nrhsnhpb ho f gfy ò teb d`jb hj teft whlfo

d`vòk ò f Mfosfs N`ty suiuri3 Ft :3>1 ò teb lhroòk, seb grhps

pfpbrs òth f ir`bjnfsb, kbts ò ebr nfr, gr`vbs ebr usufd rhutb th whrm,fog pfrms ghwothwo. Fs seb ghbs bvbry wbbmgfy lhroòk, seb wfdms

pfst teb stftubs hj d`hos fog òth teb Krbbm-òsp`rbg hjstnb iu`dgòk

hj teb Mfosfs N`ty D`jb @osurfonb Nhlpfoy. Ft ebr gbsm, seb whrms

ho sprbfgsebbts jhr f we`db, pfrt`n`pftbs ò f nhojbrbonb nfdd ft 613>1,

spbogs f jbw lòutbs irhwsòk ho teb Flfzho wbis`tb, fog foswbrs

b-lf`ds uot`d 66321. Webo seb wfdms th f d`ttdb @tfd`fo rbstfurfot th

efvb duone w`te ebr s`stbr.We`s whlfo‐s d`jb `s òubonbg iy lfoy uoprbg`ntfidb jfnthrs‗

jrhl teb dhttbry t`nmbt ò ebr pursb th teb Frfi ^pròk teft rbsudts ò

ebr eusifog yòk l`ss`hos hvbr Dìyf th teb jfnt teft teb pr`nb hj

kfs cust wbot up stvb nbots f kfddho ibnfusb tebrb wfs f nhup ò shlb

nhuotry seb‐s obvbr ebfrg hj‗iut tebrb `s fs lune hr lhrb teft `s

qu`tb prbg`ntfidb. [ey g`g seb dbfvb ehlb ft :3>18 êb g`go‐t wfot

th kbt stunm ò ruse ehur. Hr th put teft fohtebr wfy, seb prbg`ntbg

teft trfjstn whudg ib lune ebfv`br dftbr‗fog seb wfs fdlhst nbr-

tfòdy r`ket ibnfusb ruse ehur `s e`kedy prbg`ntfidb. [ebo seb grhvb,

seb fot`n`pftbg htebr gr`vbrs‐ ibefv`hr nhostfotdy3 teby w`dd sthp ft

teb òtbrsbnt`ho webo teb d`ket `s rbg= teby w`dd stfy ò teb`r dfobs

fog s`kofd ibjhrb turoòk. êb bxpbntbg teb pbhpdb weh sf`g teby

whudg chò teb 613>1 nhojbrbonb nfdd th gh sh, fog seb wfs r`ket.êb frrfokbg th lbbt ebr s`stbr ft ohho ft teb rbstfurfot ibnfusb teb

rbstfurfot‐s phstbg ehurs òg`nftbg `t whudg hpbo tebo, fog phstbg

ehurs frb f rbd`fidb ku`gb.

[b lfmb luogfob prbg`nt`hos d`mb tebsb rhutòbdy, we`db htebrs

cust fs rhutòbdy lfmb prbg`nt`hos teft sefpb hur d`vbs. [ebo teb

whlfo turobg ebr nhlputbr ho, seb ònrbfsbg bdbntr`n`ty nhosulp-

t`ho ̀ o Mfosfs N`ty iy f i`t, fs bvbry htebr whrmbr ibb g`g teft lhro-

` g dd ` d e g g g e g


17/29

69 supbrjhrbnfstòk

prhidbls ibnfusb bdbntr`n`ty prhgunbrs fot`n`pftb tebsb surkbs fog

vfry teb`r hutput fnnhrgòkdy. [ebo teb whlfo wbot th Flfzho,

teb wbis`tb e`ked`ketbg nbrtfò prhgunts `t tehuket seb whudg d`mb, fjhrbnfst gbr`vbg jrhl ebr pfst purnefsbs fog irhwsòk fog teft hj

l`dd`hos hj htebrs. [b nhostfotdy bonhuotbr prbg`nt`vb hpbrft`hos d`mb

teft ho teb @otbrobt‗Khhkdb pbrshofd`zbs sbfrne rbsudts iy puttòk

weft `t teòms yhu w`dd stog lhst òtbrbstòk ho thp‗iut teby hpbr-

ftb sh slhhtedy wb rfrbdy oht`nb. Fog tebo tebrb‐s teb whlfo‐s whrm-

pdfnb. Web Mfosfs N`ty D`jb @osurfonb Nhlpfoy `s ò teb iusòbss hj

jhrbnfstòk g`sfi`d`ty fog gbfte, fog `t ghbs f khhg chi. Weft ghbso‐tlbfo `t mohws prbn`sbdy webo @ w`dd g`b, iut `t ghbs efvb f khhg `gbf

hj ehw dhok shlbhob hj ly fkb fog prhstdb‗sbx, ̀ onhlb, d`jbstydb‗`s

d`mbdy th d`vb. Mfosfs N`ty D`jb wfs jhuogbg ò 6502. @j `ts fntufr`bs

wbrbo‐t khhg jhrbnfstbrs, t̀ whudg efvb khob ifomrupt dhok fkh.

^h lune hj hur rbfd`ty `s te`s prbg`ntfidb, hr lhrb sh. @ cust

Khhkdbg thlhrrhw‐s suor`sb fog suosbt t`lbs jhr Mfosfs N`ty, L`s-

shur`, fog kht tebl ghwo th teb lòutb. Wehsb jhrbnfsts frb rbd`fidb,

webtebr teby frb jhr thlhrrhw, teb gfy fjtbr, hr stjty ybfrs jrhl ohw.

Web sflb `s trub hj t`gbs, bnd`psbs, fog pefsbs hj teb lhho. Fdd nfo

ib prbg`ntbg jrhl ndhnmd`mb sn`bot`stn dfws w`te bohuke prbn`s`ho th

sft`sjy Dfpdfnb‐s jhrbnfstòk gblho.

Hj nhursb bfne hj tebsb phnmbts hj prbg`ntfi`d`ty nfo ib firuptdy

puonturbg. F khhg rbstfurfot `s vbry d`mbdy th hpbo `ts ghhrs webo `tsfys `t w`dd, iut `t lfy oht, jhr foy oulibr hj rbfshos, jrhl f lfo-

fkbr sdbbpòk dftb, th strb, ifomruptny, pfogbl`n, oundbfr wfr, hr f

peys`ns bxpbr`lbot fnn`gbotfddy nrbftòk f idfnm ehdb teft sunms up

teb shdfr systbl. Web sflb `s trub hj foyteòk bdsb. Bvbo tehsb stjty-

ybfr suor`sb fog suosbt jhrbnfsts nhudg ib hjj shlbweft `j, shlb-

t`lb ò teb obxt stjty ybfrs, f lfss`vb spfnb rhnm iulps Bfrte hjj

`ts hri`t frhuog teb suo. Webrb frb oh nbrtfòt`bs ò d`jb‗oht bvbo

g e g `j ` i i`d` e ` `


18/29

Fo Hpt`l`st`n ^mbpt`n 6>

f ndhug-nhlputòk obtwhrm fog teb blbrkbonb hj f juturb shn`bty

sh puid`n-sp`r`tbg fog prhspbrhus teft teb stftb nfo ib juogbg w`te

nefr`tfidb ghoft`hos.^h `s rbfd`ty ndhnmd`mb hr ndhug-d`mb8 @s teb juturb prbg`ntfidb hr

oht8 Websb frb jfdsb g`nehthl`bs, teb strst hj lfoy wb w`dd bonhuotbr.

[b d`vb ò f whrdg hj ndhnms fog ndhugs fog f vfst culidb hj htebr

lbtfpehrs. Roprbg`ntfi`d`ty fog prbg`ntfi`d`ty nhbx`st uobfs`dy ò

teb òtr`nftbdy òtbrdhnmòk systbls teft lfmb up hur ihg`bs, hur

shn`bt`bs, fog teb nhslhs. Ehw prbg`ntfidb shlbteòk `s gbpbogs ho

weft wb frb tryòk th prbg`nt, ehw jfr òth teb juturb, fog uogbr weft n`rnulstfonbs.

Dhhm ft Bgwfrg Dhrboz‐s stbdg. [bftebr jhrbnfsts frb typ`nfddy

qu`tb rbd`fidb, uogbr lhst nhog`t`hos, dhhmòk f jbw gfys febfg,

iut teby ibnhlb ònrbfsòkdy dbss fnnurftb terbb, jhur, fog stvb

gfys hut. Lune ibyhog f wbbm, wb l`ket fs wbdd nhosudt teft gfrt-

terhwòk ne`lpfozbb. ^h wb nfo‐t sfy teft wbftebr `s prbg`ntfidb

hr oht, hody teft wbftebr `s prbg`ntfidb th shlb bxtbot uogbr shlb

n`rnulstfonbs‗fog wb lust ib vbry nfrbjud webo wb try th ib lhrb

prbn`sb tefo teft. Wfmb shlbteòk fs sbblòkdy s`lpdb fs teb rbdft`ho-

se`p ibtwbbo t`lb fog prbg`ntfi`d`ty3 `t `s kbobrfddy trub teft teb jur-

tebr wb try th dhhm ̀ oth teb juturb, teb efrgbr ̀ t ̀ s th sbb. Iut tebrb nfo

ib prhdhokbg bxnbpt`hos th teb rudb. Qrbg`ntòk teb nhotòuft`ho hj f

dhok iudd lfrmbt ̀ o sthnms nfo prhvb prhsttfidb jhr lfoy ybfrs‗uot`d`t suggbody prhvbs th ib yhur uoghòk. Fog prbg`ntòk teft gòhsfurs

whudg nhotòub th prbs`gb ft teb thp hj teb jhhg nefò wfs f sfjb ibt

jhr tbos hj l`dd`hos hj ybfrs‗uot`d fo fstbrh`g sbt hjj f nftfndysl

teft hpbobg up bnhdhk`nfd o`nebs jhr f tòy lfllfd teft bvbotufddy

bvhdvbg òth f spbn`bs teft tr`bs th prbg`nt teb juturb. Dfws hj peys`ns

fs`gb, tebrb frb oh uo`vbrsfd nhostfots, sh sbpfrftòk teb prbg`ntfidb

jrhl teb uoprbg`ntfidb ̀ s g`jstnudt whrm. Webrb‐s oh wfy frhuog ̀ t.

L d ` m e i e We m d


19/29

67 supbrjhrbnfstòk

wey wb mohw teft hob- fog twh-gfy jhrbnfsts frb typ`nfddy qu`tb fn-

nurftb we`db b`ket-gfy jhrbnfsts frb oht. [`te tebsb fofdysbs, lbtbh-

rhdhk`sts frb fidb th sefrpbo teb`r uogbrstfogòk hj ehw wbftebr whrmsfog twbfm teb`r lhgbds. Webo teby try fkfò. Jhrbnfst, lbfsurb, rb-

v`sb. Ybpbft. @t‐s f obvbr-bogòk prhnbss hj ònrblbotfd `lprhvblbot

teft bxpdfòs wey wbftebr jhrbnfsts frb khhg fog sdhwdy kbttòk ibttbr.

Webrb lfy ib d`l`ts th sune `lprhvblbots, ehwbvbr, ibnfusb wbftebr

`s teb tbxtihhm `ddustrft`ho hj ohodòbfr`ty. Web jurtebr hut teb jhrb-

nfstbr tr`bs th dhhm, teb lhrb hpphrtuo`ty tebrb `s jhr nefhs th fp `ts

iuttbry wòks fog idhw fwfy bxpbntft`hos. I`k dbfps ò nhlputòkphwbr fog nhotòubg rbstoblbot hj jhrbnfstòk lhgbds lfy ougkb teb

d`l`ts f d`ttdb jurtebr òth teb juturb iut tehsb fgvfonbs krfgufddy kbt

efrgbr fog teb pfyhjjs seròm thwfrg zbrh. Ehw khhg nfo `t kbt8 Oh

hob mohws. Iut mohwòk teb nurrbot d`l`ts `s t̀sbdj f sunnbss.

@o sh lfoy htebr e`ke-stfmbs bogbfvhrs, jhrbnfstbrs frb krhpòk

ò teb gfrm. Weby efvb oh `gbf ehw khhg teb`r jhrbnfsts frb ò teb

sehrt, lbgùl, hr dhok tbrl‗fog oh `gbf ehw khhg teb`r jhrbnfsts

nhudg ibnhlb. Ft ibst, teby efvb vfkub euonebs. Weft‐s ibnfusb teb

jhrbnfst-lbfsurb-rbv`sb prhnbgurb hpbrftbs hody w`teò teb rfrbstbg

nhostobs hj e`ke-tbne jhrbnfstòk, sune fs teb whrm hj lfnrhbnhoh-

l`sts ft nbotrfd ifoms hr lfrmbtòk fog stofon`fd prhjbss`hofds ò

i`k nhlpfo`bs hr hpò`ho phdd fofdysts d`mb Oftb ^`dvbr.; Lhrb hjtbo

jhrbnfsts frb lfgb fog tebo . . . ohteòk. Fnnurfny `s sbdghl gbtbr-lòbg fjtbr teb jfnt fog `s fdlhst obvbr ghob w`te sujstn`bot rbkudfr-

`ty fog r`khr teft nhondus`hos nfo ib grfwo. Web rbfsho8 Lhstdy ̀ t‐s f

gblfog-s`gb prhidbl3 Web nhosulbrs hj jhrbnfstòk‗khvbrolbots,

iusòbss, fog teb puid`n‗gho‐t gblfog bv`gbonb hj fnnurfny. ^h

tebrb `s oh lbfsurblbot. [e`ne lbfos oh rbv`s`ho. Fog w`tehut

rbv`s`ho, tebrb nfo ib oh `lprhvblbot. @lfkòb f whrdg ò we`ne

pbhpdb dhvb th ruo, iut teby efvb oh `gbf ehw jfst teb fvbrfkb pbrsho

e j e i dg i e


20/29


teb kuo `s strbg, bog `t fjtbr f spbn`stbg g`stfonb‗fog tebrb frb oh

ògbpbogbot rfnb hjstn`fds fog t`lbmbbpbrs lbfsuròk rbsudts. Ehw

d`mbdy `s `t teft ruooòk t`lbs frb `lprhvòk ò te`s whrdg8 Oht vbry. Frb teb ibst ruoobrs ruooòk fs jfst fs eulfo ibòks frb peys`nfddy

nfpfidb8 Fkfò, prhifidy oht.

—@ efvb ibbo strunm iy ehw `lphrtfot lbfsurblbot `s th `l-

prhvòk teb eulfo nhog`t`ho,“ I`dd Kftbs wrhtb. —Phu nfo fne`bvb

ònrbgìdb prhkrbss `j yhu sbt f ndbfr khfd fog stog f lbfsurb teft w`dd

gr`vb prhkrbss thwfrg teft khfd. . . . We`s lfy sbbl ifs`n, iut `t `s

flfzòk ehw hjtbo `t `s oht ghob fog ehw efrg `t `s th kbt r`ket.“5 Eb`s r`ket fihut weft `t tfmbs th gr`vb prhkrbss, fog `t `s surpr`sòk ehw

rfrbdy `t‐s ghob ò jhrbnfstòk. Bvbo teft s`lpdb strst stbp‗sbttòk f

ndbfr khfd‗efso‐t ibbo tfmbo.

Phu l`ket teòm teb khfd hj jhrbnfstòk `s th jhrbsbb teb juturb

fnnurftbdy, iut teft‐s hjtbo oht teb khfd, hr ft dbfst oht teb shdb khfd.

^hlbt`lbs jhrbnfsts frb lbfot th botbrtfò. Weòm hj NOIN‐s C`l

Nrflbr w`te e`s —ihhyfe!“ set`nm, hr Cheo LnDfukedò, teb ehst

hj Web LnDfukedò Krhup, ibddhwòk ft e`s pfobd`sts th prbg`nt teb

d`mbdèhhg hj fo bvbot —ho f snfdb jrhl zbrh th tbo, w`te zbrh rbprb-

sbotòk zbrh phssì`d`ty fog tbo rbprbsbotòk nhlpdbtb lbtfpeys`nfd

nbrt`tugb!“ ^hlbt`lbs jhrbnfsts frb usbg th fgvfonb phd`t`nfd fkbo-

gfs fog kfdvfo`zb fnt`ho‗fs fnt`v`sts ehpb th gh webo teby wfro

hj dhhlòk ehrrhrs uodbss wb nefokb hur wfys. Webrb `s fdsh grbss-th-`lprbss jhrbnfstòk‗ we`ne `s weft ifoms gbd`vbr webo teby pfy

f jflhus puog`t th tbdd wbfdtey nd`bots fihut teb kdhifd bnhohly ò

9121. Fog shlb jhrbnfsts frb lbfot th nhljhrt‗iy fssuròk teb

fug`bonb teft teb`r ibd`bjs frb nhrrbnt fog teb juturb w`dd uojhdg fs

bxpbntbg. Qfrt`sfos frb jhog hj tebsb jhrbnfsts. Weby frb teb nhko`-

t`vb bqu`vfdbot hj sd`ppòk òth f wfrl ifte.

We`s culidb hj khfds `s sbdghl fnmohwdbgkbg, we`ne lfmbs `t

g`jst d m` g g @ ‐


21/29

6: supbrjhrbnfstòk

Fog ybt te`s stfkoft`ho `s f i`k rbfsho wey @ fl fo hpt`l`st`n

smbpt`n. [b mohw teft ò sh lune hj weft pbhpdb wfot th prbg`nt‗

phd`t`ns, bnhohl`ns, stofonb, iusòbss, tbneohdhky, gf`dy d`jb‗prbg`nt-fi`d`ty bx`sts, th shlb gbkrbb, ò shlb n`rnulstfonbs. Iut tebrb `s sh

lune bdsb wb gh oht mohw. Jhr sn`bot`sts, oht mohwòk ̀ s bxn`tòk. @t‐s

fo hpphrtuo`ty th g`snhvbr= teb lhrb teft ̀ s uomohwo, teb krbftbr teb

hpphrtuo`ty. Wefoms th teb jrfomdy qu`tb flfzòk dfnm hj r`khr ò sh

lfoy jhrbnfstòk ghlfòs, te`s hpphrtuo`ty `s eukb. Fog th sb`zb `t,

fdd wb efvb th gh ̀ s sbt f ndbfr khfd‗fnnurfny!‗fog kbt sbr`hus fihut

lbfsuròk.@‐vb ibbo ghòk teft jhr lune hj ly nfrbbr. Web rbsbfrne teft

prhgunbg teb gfrt-terhwòk-ne`lpfozbb rbsudt wfs pefsb hob. Qefsb

twh stfrtbg ò teb sullbr hj 9166, webo ly rbsbfrne (fog d`jb)

pfrtobr Ifrifrf Lbddbrs fog @ dfuonebg teb Khhg Cugklbot Qrhcbnt

fog òv`tbg vhduotbbrs th s`ko up fog jhrbnfst teb juturb. I`dd Jdfnm

rbsphogbg. ^h g`g f nhupdb hj tehusfog htebrs teft strst ybfr, fog

tehusfogs lhrb ò teb jhur ybfrs teft jhddhwbg. Nuludft`vbdy, lhrb

tefo twboty tehusfog òtbddbntufddy nur`hus dfypbhpdb tr`bg th stkurb

hut `j prhtbsts ò Yuss`f whudg sprbfg, teb pr`nb hj khdg whudg pdul-

lbt, teb O`mmb` whudg ndhsb fihvb 0,211, wfr whudg brupt ho teb

Mhrbfo pboòsudf, fog lfoy htebr qubst`hos fihut nhlpdbx, nefd-

dbokòk kdhifd `ssubs. Iy vfryòk teb bxpbr`lbotfd nhog`t`hos, wb

nhudg kfukb we`ne jfnthrs `lprhvbg jhrbs`ket, iy ehw lune, hvbr we`ne t`lb jrflbs, fog ehw khhg jhrbnfsts nhudg ibnhlb `j ibst

prfnt`nbs wbrb dfybrbg ho bfne htebr. Df`g hut d`mb teft, `t shuogs

s`lpdb. @t wfso‐t. @t wfs f gblfogòk prhkrfl teft thhm teb tfdbots

fog efrg whrm hj f ludt`g`sn`pdòfry tbfl ifsbg ft teb Ro`vbrs`ty hj

Nfd`jhro`f, Ibrmbdby, fog teb Ro`vbrs t̀y hj Qboosydvfo`f.

I`k fs `t wfs, teb Khhg Cugklbot Qrhcbnt (KCQ) wfs hody pfrt hj

f lune dfrkbr rbsbfrne bjjhrt sphoshrbg iy teb @otbdd`kbonb Fgvfonbg

Y e Q c F ` ` (@FYQF) G ‐ i jj i e id g


22/29

Fo Hpt`l`st`n ^mbpt`n 6;

rbphrts th teb g`rbnthr hj Oft`hofd @otbdd`kbonb fog `ts chi `s th sup-

phrt gfròk rbsbfrne teft prhl`sbs th lfmb Flbr`nfo òtbdd`kbonb

ibttbr ft weft `t ghbs. Fog f i`k pfrt hj weft Flbr`nfo òtbdd`kbonbghbs `s jhrbnfst kdhifd phd`t`nfd fog bnhohl`n trbogs. Iy hob rhuke

bst`lftb, teb Ro`tbg ^tftbs efs twboty tehusfog òtbdd`kbonb fofdysts

fssbssòk bvbryteòk jrhl lòutb puzzdbs th lfchr bvbots sune fs

teb d`mbdèhhg hj fo @srfbd` sobfm fttfnm ho @rfo`fo oundbfr jfn`d`-

t`bs hr teb gbpfrturb hj Krbbnb jrhl teb burhzhob.0 Ehw khhg `s fdd

te`s jhrbnfstòk8 Weft `s oht bfs`dy foswbrbg ibnfusb teb òtbdd`kbonb

nhlluo`ty, d`mb sh lfoy lfchr prhgunbrs hj jhrbnfstòk, efs obvbribbo mbbo ho spbogòk lhoby th stkurb teft hut. Webrb frb vfr`hus

rbfshos jhr teft rbduntfonb, shlb lhrb rbspbntfidb tefo htebrs, iut

wb‐dd kbt òth teft dftbr. [eft lfttbrs `s teft te`s jhrbnfstòk `s nr`t`-

nfd th oft`hofd sbnur`ty fog ybt d`ttdb nfo ib sf`g w`te foy nhostgbonb

fihut ehw khhg `t `s, hr bvbo webtebr `t‐s fs khhg fs f ludtì`dd`ho-

ghddfr hpbrft`ho w`te twboty tehusfog pbhpdb sehudg ib. Wh nefokb

teft, @FYQF nrbftbg f jhrbnfstòk thuroflbot ò we`ne stvb sn`bo-

t`stn tbfls dbg iy thp rbsbfrnebrs ò teb stbdg whudg nhlpbtb th kbo-

brftb fnnurftb jhrbnfsts ho teb shrts hj thuke qubst`hos òtbdd`kbonb

fofdysts gbfd w`te bvbry gfy. Web Khhg Cugklbot Qrhcbnt wfs hob

hj tehsb stvb tbfls. Bfne tbfl whudg bjjbnt`vbdy ib `ts hwo rbsbfrne

prhcbnt, jrbb th `lprhv`sb weftbvbr lbtehgs `t tehuket whudg whrm,

iut rbqu`rbg th suil`t jhrbnfsts ft 0 f.l. bfstbro stfogfrg t`lbbvbry gfy jrhl ^bptblibr 9166 th Cuob 9162. Iy rbqu`ròk tbfls

th jhrbnfst teb sflb qubst`hos ft teb sflb t`lb, teb thuroflbot nrb-

ftbg f dbvbd pdfyòk stbdg‗fog f r`ne trhvb hj gftf fihut weft whrms,

ehw wbdd, fog webo. Hvbr jhur ybfrs, @FYQF phsbg obfrdy stvb euo-

grbg qubst`hos fihut whrdg fjjf`rs. W`lb jrflbs wbrb sehrtbr tefo ò

ly bfrd`br rbsbfrne, w`te teb vfst lfchr`ty hj jhrbnfsts bxtbogòk hut

lhrb tefo hob lhote fog dbss tefo hob ybfr. @o fdd, wb kftebrbg hvbr

`dd` ` g` `g d c g i e j


23/29

65 supbrjhrbnfstòk

wb ibft teb nhotrhd krhup iy ;5%. KCQ fdsh ibft `ts uo`vbrs`ty-

fjstd`ftbg nhlpbt`thrs, òndugòk teb Ro`vbrs`ty hj L`ne`kfo fog

L@W, iy ebjty lfrkòs, jrhl >1% th ;1%, fog bvbo hutpbrjhrlbgprhjbss`hofd òtbdd`kbonb fofdysts w`te fnnbss th ndfss`stbg gftf. Fjtbr

twh ybfrs, KCQ wfs ghòk sh lune ibttbr tefo `ts fnfgbl`n nhlpbt`-

thrs teft @FYQF grhppbg teb htebr tbfls.61

@‐dd gbdvb òth gbtf`ds dftbr, iut dbt‐s ohtb twh mby nhondus`hos teft

blbrkb jrhl te`s rbsbfrne. Hob, jhrbs`ket `s rbfd. ^hlb pbhpdb‗

pbhpdb d`mb I`dd Jdfnm‗efvb ̀ t ̀ o spfgbs. Weby frbo‐t kurus hr hrfndbs

w`te teb phwbr th pbbr gbnfgbs òth teb juturb, iut teby gh efvb frbfd, lbfsurfidb sm`dd ft cugkòk ehw e`ke-stfmbs bvbots frb d`mbdy th

uojhdg terbb lhotes, s`x lhotes, f ybfr, hr f ybfr fog f efdj ò fg-

vfonb. Web htebr nhondus`ho `s weft lfmbs tebsb supbrjhrbnfstbrs sh

khhg. @t‐s oht rbfddy weh teby frb. @t `s weft teby gh. Jhrbs`ket `so‐t f

lystbr`hus k`jt ibsthwbg ft i`rte. @t `s teb prhgunt hj pfrt`nudfr wfys

hj teòmòk, hj kftebròk òjhrlft`ho, hj upgftòk ibd`bjs. Websb

efi`ts hj tehuket nfo ib dbfrobg fog nudt`vftbg iy foy òtbdd`kbot,

tehuketjud, gbtbrlòbg pbrsho. @t lfy oht bvbo ib fdd teft efrg th

kbt stfrtbg. Hob rbsudt teft pfrt`nudfrdy surpr`sbg lb wfs teb bjjbnt

hj f tuthr`fd nhvbròk shlb ifs`n nhonbpts teft wb‐dd bxpdhrb ò te`s

ihhm fog frb sullfr`zbg ò teb Wbo Nhllfoglbots fppbog`x. @t

thhm hody fihut s`xty lòutbs th rbfg fog ybt `t `lprhvbg fnnurfny

iy rhukedy 61% terhuke teb bot`rb thuroflbot ybfr. Pbs, 61% lfyshuog lhgbst, iut `t wfs fne`bvbg ft sh d`ttdb nhst. Fog obvbr jhrkbt

teft bvbo lhgbst `lprhvblbots ò jhrbs`ket lfòtfòbg hvbr t`lb

fgg up. @ sphmb fihut teft w`te Ffrho Irhwo, fo futehr, f [fdd

^trbbt vbtbrfo, fog teb ne`bj r`sm lfofkbr ft FVY Nfp`tfd Lfofkb-

lbot, f ebgkb juog w`te hvbr $611 i`dd`ho ò fssbts. —@t‐s sh efrg th

sbb ibnfusb `t‐s oht grflft`n,“ eb sf`g, iut `j `t `s sustfòbg —`t‐s teb

g`jjbrbonb ibtwbbo f nhos`stbot wòobr weh‐s lfmòk f d`vòk, hr teb

e ‐ ` i m dd e ` “66 F dg d m d


24/29


wb`kets fog flftburs, seb sf`g, `s teft teb ebfvywb`kets mohw teb

g`jjbrbonb ibtwbbo f :1 ⁇ 71 ibt fog f 71 ⁇ :1 ibt.

Fog ybt, `j `t‐s phssìdb th `lprhvb jhrbs`ket s`lpdy iy lbfsur-òk, fog `j teb rbwfrgs hj `lprhvbg jhrbs`ket frb suistfot`fd, wey

`so‐t lbfsuròk stfogfrg prfnt`nb8 F i`k pfrt hj teb foswbr th teft

qubst`ho d`bs ò teb psynehdhky teft nhovònbs us wb mohw teòks

wb rbfddy gho‐t‗teòks d`mb webtebr Whl Jr`bglfo `s fo fnnurftb

jhrbnfstbr hr oht. @‐dd bxpdhrb te`s psynehdhky ò nefptbr 9. Jhr nbo-

tur`bs, `t ehiidbg prhkrbss ò lbg`nòb. [ebo peys`n`fos stofddy fn-

nbptbg teft teb`r bxpbr`bonb fog pbrnbpt`hos wbrb oht rbd`fidb lbfoshj gbtbrlòòk webtebr f trbftlbot whrms, teby turobg th sn`bot`stn

tbstòk‗fog lbg`nòb stofddy stfrtbg th lfmb rfp`g fgvfonbs. Web

sflb rbvhdut`ho obbgs th efppbo ò jhrbnfstòk.

@t who‐t ib bfsy. Nefptbr > bxflòbs weft `t tfmbs th tbst jhrb-

nfstòk fs r`khrhusdy fs lhgbro lbg`nòb tbsts trbftlbots. @t‐s f i`k-

kbr nefddbokb tefo `t lfy fppbfr. @o teb dftb 6051s @ whrmbg hut f

lbtehghdhky fog nhoguntbg weft wfs, ft teb t`lb, teb i`kkbst tbst hj

bxpbrt phd`t`nfd jhrbnfstòk fnnurfny bvbr. Hob rbsudt, gbd`vbrbg lfoy

ybfrs dftbr, wfs teb puone dòb teft ohw lfmbs lb squ`rl. Iut fo-

htebr g`snhvbry hj teft rbsbfrne g`go‐t rbnb`vb obfrdy fs lune fttbo-

t`ho bvbo tehuke `t wfs jfr lhrb `lphrtfot3 hob krhup hj bxpbrts

efg lhgbst iut rbfd jhrbs`ket. [eft lfgb teb g`jjbrbonb ibtwbbo teb

bxpbrts w`te jhrbs`ket fog tehsb weh wbrb sh ehpbdbss teby grfkkbgteb fvbrfkb ghwo th teb dbvbd hj f gfrt-terhwòk ne`lp8 @t wfso‐t

shlb lyst`nfd k`jt hr fnnbss th òjhrlft`ho htebrs g`go‐t efvb. Ohr

wfs `t foy pfrt`nudfr sbt hj ibd`bjs. @ogbbg, w`teò f qu`tb w`gb rfokb

hj v`bws, weft teby tehuket g`go‐t lfttbr. @t wfs ehw teby tehuket.

@osp`rbg ò pfrt iy teft òs`ket, @FYQF nrbftbg `ts uoprbnb-

gbotbg jhrbnfstòk thuroflbot. Nefptbr 7 `s teb sthry hj ehw teft

efppbobg‗fog teb g`snhvbry hj supbrjhrbnfstbrs. [ey frb teby sh

g We ` e e e 2 e e [e


25/29

91 supbrjhrbnfstòk

l`ket suspbnt `t‐s òtbdd`kbonb teft lfmbs fdd teb g`jjbrbonb. @t‐s oht.

Weby‐rb fdsh rblfrmfidy oulbrftb. D`mb I`dd Jdfnm, lfoy efvb fg-

vfonbg gbkrbbs ò lfteblft`ns fog sn`bonb. ^h `s teb sbnrbt frnfoblfte8 Oh. Bvbo supbrjhrbnfstbrs weh frb nfrg-nfrryòk lfteblft`-

n`fos rfrbdy usb lune lfte. Weby fdsh tbog th ib obwscuom`bs weh

stfy ho thp hj teb dftbst gbvbdhplbots fog rbkudfrdy upgftb teb`r jhrb-

nfsts, sh yhu l`ket ib tblptbg th fttrìutb teb`r sunnbss th spbogòk

bogdbss ehurs ho teb chi. Pbt teft thh whudg ib f l`stfmb.

ûpbrjhrbnfstòk ghbs rbqu`rb lò`lul dbvbds hj òtbdd`kbonb,

oulbrfny, fog mohwdbgkb hj teb whrdg, iut foyhob weh rbfgs sbr`-hus ihhms fihut psynehdhk`nfd rbsbfrne prhifidy efs tehsb prbrbq-

u`s`tbs. ^h weft `s `t teft bdbvftbs jhrbnfstòk th supbrjhrbnfstòk8 Fs

w`te teb bxpbrts weh efg rbfd jhrbs`ket ò ly bfrd`br rbsbfrne, weft

lfttbrs lhst `s ehw teb jhrbnfstbr teòms. @‐dd gbsnrìb te`s ò gbtf`d,

iut irhfgdy spbfmòk, supbrjhrbnfstòk gblfogs teòmòk teft `s

hpbo-lògbg, nfrbjud, nur`hus, fog‗fihvb fdd‗sbdj-nr`t`nfd. @t fdsh

gblfogs jhnus. Web mòg hj teòmòk teft prhgunbs supbr`hr cugk-

lbot ghbs oht nhlb bjjhrtdbssdy. Hody teb gbtbrlòbg nfo gbd`vbr `t

rbfshofidy nhos`stbotdy, we`ne `s wey hur fofdysbs efvb nhos`stbotdy

jhuog nhll`tlbot th sbdj-̀ lprhvblbot th ib teb strhokbst prbg`nthr

hj pbrjhrlfonb.

@o teb stofd nefptbrs, @‐dd rbshdvb fo fppfrbot nhotrfg`nt`ho ib-

twbbo teb gblfogs hj khhg cugklbot fog bjjbnt`vb dbfgbrse`p,rbsphog th weft @ teòm frb teb twh strhokbst nefddbokbs th ly rb-

sbfrne, fog nhondugb‗fpprhpr`ftbdy jhr f ihhm fihut jhrbnfstòk‗

w`te f nhos`gbrft`ho hj weft nhlbs obxt.

F JHYBNF^W FIHRW JHYBNF^W@OK

I i e` m e` ` dd e d d g g Fj dd


26/29


fdkhr`tels, fog I`k Gftf. Ft `ts nhrb, teb jhrbnfstòk @ stugy òvhdvbs

suicbnt`vb cugklbot3 `t `s pbhpdb teòmòk fog gbn`gòk, ohteòk

lhrb. @so‐t teb t`lb jhr sune sdhppy kubsswhrm grfwòk th f ndhsb8@o 6027, f ir`dd`fot psynehdhk`st, Qfud Lbbed wrhtb f slfdd ihhm

teft nfusbg f i`k st`r.69 @t rbv`bwbg twboty stug`bs sehwòk teft wbdd-

òjhrlbg bxpbrts prbg`ntòk hutnhlbs‗ webtebr f stugbot whudg

sunnbbg ò nhddbkb hr f pfrhdbb whudg ib sbot ifnm th pr`sho‗ wbrb

oht fs fnnurftb fs s`lpdb fdkhr`tels teft fggbg up hicbnt`vb òg`nf-

thrs d`mb fi`d`ty tbst snhrbs fog rbnhrgs hj pfst nhogunt. Lbbed‐s ndf`l

upsbt lfoy bxpbrts, iut suisbqubot rbsbfrne‗ohw lhrb tefo twheuogrbg stug`bs‗efs sehwo teft ò lhst nfsbs stft`st`nfd fdkhr`tels

ibft suicbnt`vb cugklbot, fog ò teb efogjud hj stug`bs webrb teby

gho‐t, teby usufddy t`b. K`vbo teft fdkhr`tels frb qu`nm fog nebfp,

uod`mb suicbnt`vb cugklbot, f t`b supphrts usòk teb fdkhr`tel. Web

phòt `s ohw òg`sputfidb3 webo yhu efvb f wbdd-vfd`gftbg stft`st`nfd

fdkhr`tel, usb `t .

We`s òs`ket wfs obvbr f terbft th teb rb`ko hj suicbnt`vb cugk-

lbot ibnfusb wb sh rfrbdy efvb wbdd-vfd`gftbg fdkhr`tels jhr teb

prhidbl ft efog. @t wfs cust `lprfnt`nfd jhr lfte th g`spdfnb pdfò

hdg teòmòk‗ò 6027 fog bvbo thgfy.

Iut spbntfnudfr fgvfonbs ò òjhrlft`ho tbneohdhky sukkbst wb

frb fpprhfneòk f e`sthr`nfd g`snhotòu`ty ò eulfo`ty‐s rbdft`ho-

se`p w`te lfneòbs. @o 600; @IL‐s Gbbp Idub ibft nebss neflp`hoKfrry Mfspfrhv. Ohw, nhllbrn`fddy fvf`dfidb nebss prhkrfls nfo

ibft foy eulfo. @o 9166 @IL‐s [ftsho ibft Cbhpfrgy! neflp`hos

Mbo Cbooòks fog Irfg Yuttbr. Weft wfs f vfstdy thukebr nhlputòk

nefddbokb, iut [ftsho‐s bokòbbrs g`g `t. Whgfy, `t‐s oh dhokbr `lphs-

sìdb th `lfkòb f jhrbnfstòk nhlpbt`t`ho ò we`ne f supbrnhlputbr

trhuonbs supbrjhrbnfstbrs fog supbrpuog`ts fd`mb. Fjtbr teft efp-

pbos, tebrb w`dd st`dd ib eulfo jhrbnfstbrs, iut d`mb eulfo Cbhpfrgy!

`dd d e e j `


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99 supbrjhrbnfstòk

teft [ftsho nhudg bfs`dy stbdg f qubst`ho fihut teb prbsbot hr pfst

d`mb —[e`ne twh Yuss`fo dbfgbrs trfgbg chis ò teb dfst tbo ybfrs8“

Iut @ wfs nur`hus fihut e`s v`bws ho ehw dhok `t w`dd tfmb jhr [ft-sho hr hob hj `ts g`k`tfd gbsnbogfots th stbdg qubst`hos d`mb —[`dd twh

thp Yuss`fo dbfgbrs trfgb chis ò teb obxt tbo ybfrs8“

@o 60:2 teb phdylfte Ebribrt ^`lho tehuket wb wbrb hody

twboty ybfrs fwfy jrhl f whrdg ò we`ne lfneòbs nhudg gh —foy

whrm f lfo nfo gh,“ we`ne `s teb shrt hj of`vbdy hpt`l`st`n teòk

pbhpdb sf`g ifnm tebo, fog hob rbfsho wey Jbrrunn`‗ weh efs

whrmbg ò frt`stn`fd òtbdd`kbonb jhr te`rty ybfrs‗`s lhrb nfut`husthgfy.6> Nhlputòk ̀ s lfmòk bohrlhus str`gbs, Jbrrunn` ohtbg. Web

fi`d`ty th spht pfttbros `s krhwòk spbntfnudfrdy. Fog lfneòb dbfro-

òk, ò nhliòft`ho w`te iurkbhoòk eulfo-lfneòb òtbrfnt`hos

teft jbbg teb dbfroòk prhnbss, prhl`sbs jfr lhrb juogflbotfd fg-

vfonbs th nhlb. —@t‐s khòk th ib hob hj tebsb bxphobot`fd nurvbs teft

wb‐rb mòg hj ft teb ihtthl hj ohw,“ Jbrrunn` sf`g.

Iut tebrb `s f vfst g`jjbrbonb ibtwbbo —[e`ne twh Yuss`fo dbfg-

brs trfgbg chis8“ fog —[`dd twh Yuss`fo dbfgbrs trfgb chis fkfò8“

Web jhrlbr `s f e`sthr`nfd jfnt. Web nhlputbr nfo dhhm `t up. Web

dfttbr rbqu`rbs teb nhlputbr th lfmb fo òjhrlbg kubss fihut teb

òtbot`hos hj Zdfg`l`r Qutò, teb nefrfntbr hj Gl`tr` Lbgvbgbv,

fog teb nfusfd gyofl`ns hj Yuss`fo phd`t`ns, fog tebo òtbkrftb teft

òjhrlft`ho òth f cugklbot nfdd. Qbhpdb gh teft shrt hj teòk fddteb t`lb, iut teft ghbso‐t lfmb `t bfsy. @t lbfos teb eulfo irfò `s

whogrhus‗ibnfusb teb tfsm `s stfkkbròkdy efrg. Bvbo w`te nhl-

putbrs lfmòk kfddhpòk fgvfonbs, teb shrt hj jhrbnfstòk teft su-

pbrjhrbnfstbrs gh `s f dhok wfy hjj. Fog Jbrrunn` `so‐t surb wb w`dd

bvbr sbb f eulfo uogbr kdfss ft teb ^l`tesho`fo w`te f s`ko sfyòk

—suicbnt`vb cugklbot.“

Lfneòbs lfy kbt ibttbr ft —l`l`nmòk eulfo lbfoòk,“ fog

e i i g` ` e i e ` i — e ‐ g`jj


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Fo Hpt`l`st`n ^mbpt`n 9>

òk,“ Jbrrunn` sf`g. Weft‐s f spfnb eulfo cugklbot w`dd fdwfys hn-

nupy.

@o jhrbnfstòk, fs ò htebr stbdgs, wb w`dd nhotòub th sbb eulfo cugklbot ibòk g`spdfnbg‗th teb nhostbroft`ho hj we`tb-nhddfr

whrmbrs‗iut wb w`dd fdsh sbb lhrb fog lhrb syotebsbs, d`mb —jrbb-

stydb nebss,“ ò we`ne eulfos w`te nhlputbrs nhlpbtb fs tbfls,

teb eulfo grfwòk ho teb nhlputbr‐s òg`sputfidb strboktes iut

fdsh hnnfs`hofddy hvbrr`gòk teb nhlputbr. Web rbsudt `s f nhliòf-

t`ho teft nfo (shlbt`lbs) ibft ihte eulfos fog lfneòbs. Wh rb-

jrflb teb lfo-vbrsus-lfneòb g`nehthly, nhliòft`hos hj KfrryMfspfrhv fog Gbbp Idub lfy prhvb lhrb rhiust tefo purb-eulfo

hr purb-lfneòb fpprhfnebs.

[eft Jbrrunn` ghbs sbb ibnhlòk hishdbtb `s teb kuru lhgbd

teft lfmbs sh lfoy phd`ny gbiftbs sh pubr`db3 —@‐dd nhuotbr yhur Qfud

Mruklfo phdbl`n w`te ly O`fdd Jbrkusho nhuotbrphdbl`n, fog

rbiut yhur Whl Jr`bglfo hp-bg w`te ly Irbt ^tbpebos idhk.“ Jbr-

runn` sbbs d`ket ft teb bog hj te`s dhok gfrm tuoobd3 —@ teòm `t‐s khòk

th kbt strfokbr fog strfokbr“ jhr pbhpdb th d`stbo th teb fgv`nb hj

bxpbrts wehsb v`bws frb òjhrlbg hody iy teb`r suicbnt`vb cugklbot.

Eulfo tehuket `s ibsbt iy psynehdhk`nfd p`tjfdds, f jfnt teft efs hody

ibnhlb w`gbdy rbnhko`zbg ò teb dfst gbnfgb hr twh. —^h weft @ wfot

`s teft eulfo bxpbrt pf`rbg w`te f nhlputbr th hvbrnhlb teb eulfo

nhko`t`vb d`l`tft`hos fog i`fsbs.“67

@j Jbrrunn` `s r`ket‗@ suspbnt eb `s‗ wb w`dd obbg th idbog

nhlputbr-ifsbg jhrbnfstòk fog suicbnt`vb cugklbot ò teb juturb.

^h `t‐s t`lb wb kht sbr`hus fihut ihte.


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Superforecasting by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner

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