Summer Economics Work

8/11/2019 Summer Economics Work

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Article Brief #1 Syllabus Section 2 Word Count: 557 Written : Aug. 23 2014

Source : "Shrinking Russian Economy Adds to !ars o u $% o&n R!c!ssion." Reuters .A'E(A)*ER *E+,A)- / 22 Aug. 2014. !%. 22 Aug. 2014.htt : uk.r!ut!rs.com artic ! 2014 06 22 uk$russia$gd $id/ )08+19'20140622 .

Concepts: R!c!ssionary ga s n!gati;! gro&thDiagrams: A* AS


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sho&s th! r!c!ssion or r!c!ssionary ga Russia s!!ms to %! h!ad!d to&ards i th! gro&th rat! do!snot incr!as!.

A t!r th! ast !& months and th! r!c!nt rat!s th! go;!rnm!nt has had to r!ass!ss th!ir or!cast o!conomic gro&th or 2014 rom &hat &as 0.7C to no& 0.5C. Russian !conomist *imitri >o !;oyargu!s that "=h! risk o n!gati;! annua gro&th in 8*> ?in 2014@ is sti high and th!s! risks ar!

ro%a% y rising on th! %ack o g!o o itica t!nsions". =his go!s to sho& that !;!n though th!go;!rnm!nt has r!ass!ss!d th!ir gro&th !stimat! th! risk o n!gati;! gro&th is sti high in r! ationto th! curr!nt con icts. or this r!ason R!ut!rs !conomists took a !ss o timistic a roach and!stimat!d gro&th %y th! !nd o th! y!ar to on y r!ach 0.3C. , con icts continu! !rtaining to th!sanctions and /krain! it is ;!ry ik! y Russia &i ind!!d a into r!c!ssion.

Data Collection 1:

Russia 8*> 8ro&th Rat! 2004$2014:

Year Rate (%)2004 1.52005 1.82006 1.82007 2.22008 -1.52009 0.4

2010 0.72011 1.42012 0.32013 0.32014 -0.3

/n!m oym!nt Rat! 2004$2014:

Year Rate (%)2004 7.3

2005 8.32006 7.7

R!c!ssion stat! Russia


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2007 7.12008 7.12009 9.42010 9.22011 6.72012 6.12013 62014 5.6

*!%t as C o 8*> 2004$2013:

Year Rate (%)2004 22.32005 14.22006 9

2007 8.52008 7.92009 112010 11.042011 11.712012 12.742013 13.412014 N/A

,n ation Rat! 2004$2014:

Year Rate (%)2004 11.32005 12.72006 10.72007 8.22008 12.62009 13.42010 82011 9.62012 4.22013 7.12014 6.1


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as!d o o th! data o;!r th! ast 10 y!ars &ith r! ation to 2014 Russia s!!ms to %! !ss strong!conomica y than at oth!r gi;!n tim!s. =h! data a%o;! in r! ation to th! artic ! a%out a ot!ntiar!c!ssion go Iuit! &! tog!th!r &h!n you ook at th! t&o. K%;ious y it is hard to mak! assum tionsa%out 2014 as a &ho ! consid!ring th! y!ar isnBt com !t! ho&!;!r %y ooking at th! 8*> gro&thrat! or ! am ! you can s!! that curr!nt y it is at its o&!st oint sinc! th! inancia crisis in 2006$09. -onsid!ring 8*> gro&th is &hat contri%ut!s to !conomic gro&th ,Bd say it is on! o th! mostsigni icant indicators o th! data charts a%o;!. RussiaBs con icts &ith /krain! as &! as th!sanctions ha;! %rought th! gro&th rat! to a oint at &hich a r!c!ssion s!!ms ik! y. 8ro&th rat!Bs o$1.5C in 2006 and a curr!nt $0.3C gro&th rat! in 2014 sho& arg! simi arity to on! anoth!rcom ar!d to oth!r y!ars rat!s and this su orts th! c aim that a r!c!ssion is soon to com!.

Sourc!: "Russia $ Economic ,ndicators $ Actua *ata $ istorica -harts." Russia - Economic Indicators - Actual Data - Historical Charts . ). . n.d. !%. Aug. 2014.

htt : i!conomics.com russiaLr! Jtrading!conomics.com .

Article Brief #2 Syllabus Section 2 Word Count: !" Written : Aug. 25 2014

Source : "Russia in )!gati;! Economic Stag! Shou d ,n;!st in *!;! o m!nt M Economy+inist!r." RIA Novosti . ). . 25 Aug. 2014. !%. 25 Aug. 2014.htt : !n.ria.ru russia 20140625 192310270 Russia$in$)!gati;!$Economic$Stag!$Shou d$,n;!st$in$*!;! o m!nt$.htm .

Concepts: Economic d!;! o m!nt go;!rnm!nt s !ndingDiagrams: A* AS


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r!s ons! to &!st!rn sanctions Russia is trying to us! it as an o ortunity to gro& and d!;! o th!irdom!stic agricu tur!. =his m!ans ha;ing to incr!as! go;!rnm!nt s !nding and d! icit to&ard thisi! d o d!;! o m!nt.Economic Linkages: =h! artic ! c !ar y discuss!s th! conc! t o a !conomic d!;! o m!nt andgo;!rnm!nt s !nding.

=h! notion o go;!rnm!nt s !nding at a tim! o n!gati;! !conomic gro&th is som!&hat o a dou% !$!dg!d s&ord. ,n th! cas! o Russia th! aim is to im ro;! th! countryBs dom!stic agricu tur! mark!tas r!su t o or!ign ood %ans. =his in turn incr!as!s th!ir d! icit to a high!r !rc!ntag! o 8*>som!thing that is curr!nt y d!c ining ho&!;!r it may ho d som! %!n! its or th! ong$run in t!rms ostimu ating th! !conomy !ss to&ards a r!c!ssionary stat!.

A ! !i / yukay!; RussiaBs Economic *!;! o m!nt +inist!r stat!d that on! o th! arg!st issu!s th!nation ac!s curr!nt y in th!ir stat! o n!gati;! gro&th is th! ack o d!mand. =his is sho&n a%o;!&ith A* 0 shi ting ! t to A* 1 . A though th! stat! o th! !conomy is d!c ining mor! and mor! th!minist!r c aims that F ,n th!s! circumstanc!s a d!cr!as! in go;!rnm!nt s !nding &i on y int!nsi y th!n!gati;! tr!nd in th! nationa !conomy &hich in turn &i hind!r im ro;ing isca !r ormanc!G. =hisim i!s that th! nation s!!ks to incr!as! go;!rnm!nt s !nding. S!! n! t diagram.

8o;!rnm!nt ! !nditur! s !nding is a com on!nt o aggr!gat! d!mand. , incr!as!d id!a y A* 0 &i shi t right to A* 1 aiding th! curr!nt !conomica situation. =h! n!& !Iui i%rium is at a o&!r

ric! !;! and high!r !;! o out ut.


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K%;ious y in RussiaBs curr!nt situation it &i %! a gr!at o%stac ! managing to shi t th! aggr!gat!d!mand in an a r!ady d!c ining !conomic stat! ho&!;!r it s!!ms in ord!r to mak! som! sort o

rogr!ss and ro;id! Russian citiN!ns &ith a ;ari!ty o ood sourc!s it may %! an o tion.

=his incr!as!d go;!rnm!nt s !nding to&ards agricu tura d!;! o m!nt may a so ho d %!n! its

r! ating to th! o;!rty cyc !.

y im ro;ing dom!stic ood roducts in ! ort to r! ac! th! or!ign ood im orts this cou d ot!ntia y ro;id! %!tt!r h!a th in t!rms o thos! &ho su !r rom hung!r. As th! ;ari!ty o oodsourc!s %!com! mor! dom!sticat!d th!y &i %!com! mor! r!adi y a;ai a% ! to a arg!r o u ationo Russia or a ot!ntia y ch!a !r ric!. =his su orts th! id!a o s! $sustaina%i ity &ith r!gards toRussia as a &ho !. , th! dom!stication in agricu tur! do!s in act im ro;! h!a th or som! this cou d!ad to high!r roducti;ity in th! &ork orc!. 'ast y i th! agricu tura community ! ands this

ot!ntia y m!ans mor! Oo%s or oca s.

Data Collection #:


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,n t!rms o d!;! o m!nt Russia &ou d %! in th! midd !. As a nation th!ir statistics sho& that th!yar! a mor!o;!r d!;! o !d nation. ,n th! r!c!nt y!ars and rom ooking at th! in o$gra hic a%o;!you can s!! that Russia has r!duc!d itBs o;!rty rat! signi icant y in th! ast d!cad! rom 35C to10C. ,n addition to this th! !rc!ntag! o midd !$c ass citiN!ns has ris!n %y 30C. *!s it! thos!c!rtain statistics ho&!;!r Russia is curr!nt y acing an !conomic do&nturn M so as th! y!ar go!s on

this cou d im act som! o th! d!;! o m!nta as !cts o th! nation.

Sourc!s:

"Russia." Central Intelligence Agency . -!ntra ,nt! ig!nc! Ag!ncy n.d. !%. 24 Aug. 2014.

htt s: &&&.cia.go; i%rary u% ications th!$&or d$ act%ook g!os rs.htm .")!&s." Infographic: Confidence Crisis Exposes Economic ea!ness in Russia . ). . n.d.

!%. 24 Aug. 2014. htt : &&&.&or d%ank.org !n n!&s !atur! 2014 03 2 in ogra hic$r!r31$con id!nc!$crisis .

Article Brief #3 Syllabus Section 2 Word Count: $%% Written : Aug. 25 2014

Sources :"Shrinking Russian Economy Adds to !ars o u $% o&n R!c!ssion." Reuters . A'E(A)*ER

*E+,A)- / 22 Aug. 2014. !%. 22 Aug. 2014. htt : uk.r!ut!rs.com artic ! 2014 06 22 uk$russia$gd $id/ )08+19'20140622 .

"Russia in )!gati;! Economic Stag! Shou d ,n;!st in *!;! o m!nt M Economy +inist!r." RIA Novosti . ). . 25 Aug. 2014. !%. 25 Aug. 2014.

htt : !n.ria.ru russia 20140625 192310270 Russia$in$)!gati;!$Economic$Stag!$Shou d$,n;!st$in$*!;! o m!nt$.htm .

Concepts: R!c!ssion n!gati;! gro&th ?!conomic gro&th@ !conomic d!;! o m!ntDiagrams: A* AS

Brief Summary: =h! t&o artic !s %!ing discuss!d ar! tit !d "Shrinking Russian Economy Adds to!ars o u $% o&n R!c!ssion" and "Russia in )!gati;! Economic Stag! Shou d ,n;!st in*!;! o m!nt M Economy +inist!r." =h! t&o artic !s go hand in hand &ith on! anoth!r as th! irston! discuss!s RussiaBs !conomy &ith !ars that th! nation is n!aring a P u % o&n r!c!ssionBo o&ing a dro in th!ir 8*> gro&th rat! &hi ! th! s!cond artic ! addr!ss!s this !conomicdo&nturn &ith r!gards to &hat th! Russian go;!rnm!nt ans to do to stimu at! th! !conomy onc!again. =his in;o ;!s in;!stm!nt into d!;! o m!nt.

Economic Linkages: =h! issu! at hand s !ci ica y r! at!s to conc! ts o go;!rnm!nts !nding ! !nditur!s aggr!gat! d!mand and !conomic d!;! o m!nt.

RussiaBs %!!n an acti;! to ic in n!&s h!ad in!s at! y o o&ing th!ir con icts and ci;i unr!st in!ast!rn /krain! as &! as th! im os!d &!st!rn sanctions on th! nation tak!n u on %y th! /nit!dStat!s as &! as maOor Euro !an countri!s. =h! sanctions th!ms! ;!s %ann!d things ik! E./. !n!rgycom ani!s rom s! ing !Iui m!nt us!d in oi and gas dri ing. or this r!ason amongst a !& oth!rsit s!!ms that RussiaBs !conomy is su !ring. As th! irst artic ! out in!s RussiaBs !conomic gro&th

rat! has d!cr!as!d rom itBs origina roO!ction or th! s!cond Iuart!r o 2014 and mor! r!c!nt ycyc !d into &hat is kno&n as n!gati;! gro&th ? A contraction in a countryQs !conomy as !;id!nc!d


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%y a d!cr!as! in its gross dom!stic roduct ?8*>@ during any Iuart!r o a gi;!n y!ar.@ At th! start oth! y!ar RussiaBs go;!rnm!nt roO!ct!d a 1.3C 8*> gro&th rat! or +ay o o&!d %y a 0. Cgro&th in Dun!. -ontrasting y a macro!conomics monitoring r! ort r!c!nt y sho&!d that th! 8*>had contract!d %y 0.2C in Du y o o&ing a 0.1C a in Dun!. =his out in!s th! n!gati;! gro&th cyc !

As or th! sanctions im os!d and th! r!action to th!m rom Russia th! go;!rnm!nt d!cid!d to %anood roducts im ort!d rom th! /S and oth!r E/ nations. +uch o RussiaBs ood sourc!s ar!im ort!d so a t!r this it s!!ms that !ith!r th! %ans &ou d ha;! to %! i t!d or th! ood dom!sticat!d.As a r!su t Russian Economic +inist!r A ! !i / yukay!; stat!d that th! it &as an o ortunity orRussia to in;!st into th!ir agricu tur! and &id!n it n!gating th! n!!d or a ot o th! %ann!d im ort!dgoods. ,n doing so it s!!ms th! minist!r ho !s to stimu at! th! !conomy rom th! n!gati;! gro&thcyc ! %y m!ans o inO!ctions and go;!rnm!nt s !nding.

Application:

=h! diagram %! o& sho&s RussiaBs curr!nt contracting stat!. oth in;!stm!nt rat!s d!c ining %y 2Cand th! n!gati;! gro&th ha;! tak!n o;!r th! nations !conomy and this is c !ar y sho&n &ith a shi to aggr!gat! d!mand rom A* 0 to A* 1. ,n doing so th! n!& aggr!gat! d!mand cur;! no ong!rint!rs!cts &ith 'RAS ? ot!ntia !;! o out ut@ and th!r! or! this !ads to actua out ut %!ing !ssthan ot!ntia . ,n ord!r to shi t A* 1 to th! right and c os!r to th! !Iui i%rium th! go;!rnm!nt mustind m!ans o stimu ating th! !conomy ho&!;!r th! r!;ious m!ntion o inO!ctions to&ardsagricu tur! %y th! go;!rnm!nt may ro;! to %! risky in th! short$run.

=o und!rstand th! s!;!rity o RussiaBs curr!nt n!gati;! gro&th cyc ! it is o us! to ook at th!irgro&th statistics o;!r th! ast 3 y!ars:


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As you can s!! th! s!cond Iuart!r o 2014 c !ar y indicat!s th! m!ntion!d contraction. , th!go;!rnm!nt &ish!s to s !nd mor! mon!y to&ards agricu tur! in ho !s o stimu us th!n it is a so oim ortanc! to ook at ho& much d!%t Russia has su !r!d r!c!nt y and i it &ou d %! &orth it toincr!as! th!ir d! icit in a tim! ik! this.

As you can s!! Russia is in its high!st !;! o d!%t sinc! 200 .

,d!a y th! go;!rnm!nt s !nding to&ards agricu tur! &i ho d th! ong$t!rm %!n! it o mo;ingaggr!gat! d!mand to th! right as sho&n &ith A* 0 shi ting to A* 1. ,ncr!as!d go;!rnm!nt s !ndingt!chnica y signi i!s incr!as!d aggr!gat! d!mand. =his &ou d id!a y yi! d a ong$t!rm ! ansionary

ga .

E&aluation: y ass!ssing th! gra hs and in ormation a%o;! th!r! orms a c !ar!r imag! as to &hat&ou d %! in RussiaBs %!st int!r!st to ight against a r!c!ssion and id!a y r!ach ositi;! 8*> gro&th.=h! !conomics minist!rBs c aim is that %y d!;! o ing th! nations agricu tura community th!r! may

%! incr!as!d stimu ation. =his c aim go!s %oth &ays in itBs natur!. -onsid!ring Russia is a r!ady at ahigh !;! o d!%t in com arison to th!ir oth!r y!ars it may caus! th! !conomy to s o& do&n or an!;!n ong!r !riod o tim! &h!n th! d! icit o th! nation ris!s %y m!ans o inO!ctions into th!agricu tura mark!t. =hough this may %! h! u in sta%i iNation o th! !conomy in th! ong$run asigni icant y high d! icit during a tim! o r!c!ssion isnBt n!c!ssari y id!a !ith!r. ,n addition to thissu%sidiNing agricu tura communiti!s may incr!as! th! d! !nd!nc! o such communiti!s on su%sidi!s


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!;!n &h!n th! !conomy icks u . , &ou d say that th!r! is no r!a so ution signi icant !nough tomak! ast chang!s to&ards th! contractionary ga un !ss th! sanctions and %ans ar! i t!d a o&ingor th! o& o or!ign roducts to stimu at! th! !conomy. 'ast y Russia cou d ot!ntia y ook tod!cr!asing ta !s %!caus! it scatt!rs th! s !nding o&!r o th! nation and a o&s th! !conomy tounction mor! natura y in som! cas!s %y m!ans o indi;idua d!cision making rath!r than

%ur!aucratic.

orks -it!d:

"Russia 8o;!rnm!nt *!%t to 8*> 1999$2014 *ata -hart -a !ndar." Russia "overnment De#t to"D$ . ). . n.d. !%. 2 Aug. 2014. htt : &&&.trading!conomics.com russia go;!rnm!nt$d!%t$to$gd .

"Russia 8*> 8ro&th Rat! 1995$2014 *ata -hart -a !ndar or!cast." Russia "D$ "ro%th Rate . ). . n.d. !%. 2 Aug. 2014. htt : &&&.trading!conomics.com russia gd $gro&th .

Summer Economics Work

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