Successful management of small pelagics within a large … · Successful management of small pelagics within a large international region: The case for collaborative assessment work

Successful management of small pelagics within a large international region: The case for collaborative assessment work within the recently formed

South Pacific Regional Fisheries Management Organization (SPRFMO)

James Ianelli

Alaska Fisheries Science Center

NMFS/NOAA

4th Scientific Committee

October 2016

Acknowledgements:

Scientific Committee, 52-participants from 13 countries

https://www.sprfmo.int/meetings/4th-sc-2016/

https://www.sprfmo.int/2nd-scientific-committee/

Point #1

Big area, important fisheries

The South Pacific Regional Fishery Management

Organization…

Jack mackerel fishery

Year

S-C Chile

N Chile

Offshore

Far-North

Catc

h (t

hous

ands

of t

)

2016

Point #2

Complex organizational task to create a Commission…

Feb 2006 1st international consultation in Wellington NZ

7 more consultations

…

2010, 1st “Prep Con” (preparatory conference)

2012, 3rd and last PrepCon

SPRFMO 1st Meeting

Auckland NZ 2013

The South Pacific Regional Fishery Management Organization…

Science

Admin/Organizational 2 Hobart, Australia Nov 2006

3 Renaca, Chile May 2007

4 New Caledonia Sep 2007

5 Guayaquil, Ecuador Mar 2008

6 Canberra, Australia Oct 2008

7 Lima, Peru May 2009

8 New Zealand Nov 2009

Assessment methods simulation testing

2008 FAO Jack mackerel

workshop Santiago

Assessment and Rebuilding Plan

Robin Leslie Allen

1943 – 2015

The Commission and Scientific Committee indebted to his service, intellect, and motivation

Complex task…

Point #3

Science endeavor to manage the region’s fisheries

SPRFMO Science-management interface…

Article 10 of Convention:

(a) plan, conduct and review scientific assessments of the status of fishery resources

(b) provide advice and recommendations to the Commission and its subsidiary bodies based on such assessments

(c) provide advice and recommendations to the Commission and its subsidiary bodies on the impact of fishing on the marine ecosystems in the Convention Area

(d) encourage and promote cooperation in scientific research and

(e) provide such other scientific advice to the Commission and its subsidiary bodies as it considers appropriate

Feb 2006 1st international consultation in Wellington NZ

7 more consultations

…

2010, 1st “Prep Con” (preparatory conference)

2012, 3rd and last PrepCon

SPRFMO 1st Meeting

Auckland NZ 2013

The South Pacific Regional Fishery Management Organization…

Science

Admin/Organizational 2 Hobart, Australia Nov 2006

3 Renaca, Chile May 2007

4 New Caledonia Sep 2007

5 Guayaquil, Ecuador Mar 2008

6 Canberra, Australia Oct 2008

7 Lima, Peru May 2009

8 New Zealand Nov 2009

Assessment methods simulation testing

2008 FAO Jack mackerel

workshop Santiago

Assessment and Rebuilding Plan

Perceptions…early 2012

Jack mackerel Conservation and Management Measure

1st Commission meeting, 2013

The Commission of the SPRFMO, Noting that despite the efforts that have been made to arrest the depletion of

the Trachurus murphyi stock, it remains at very low levels;

Concerned in particular with the low levels of the current biomass, high fishing mortality and the high degree of

associated uncertainties;

Taking into account the outcomes of the stock assessment carried out in October of 2012 and the advice of the

Scientific Working Group (SWG) established by the Preparatory Conference,

Bearing in mind the commitment to apply the precautionary approach and take decisions based on the best

scientific and technical information available as set out in Article 3 of the Convention;

Jack mackerel Conservation and Management Measure

1st Commission meeting, 2013

Recognizing that a primary function of the Commission is to adopt conservation and management measures to achieve the

objective of the Convention, including, as appropriate, conservation and management measures for particular fish stocks;

Affirming its commitment to rebuilding the stock of Trachurus murphyi and ensuring its long term conservation and sustainable management in accordance with the objective of the Convention,

Recognizing the need for effective monitoring and control and surveillance of fishing for Trachurus murphyi …

In 2013 the total catch of Trachurus murphyi in the area to which this CMM applies in accordance with paragraph 1 shall be

limited to 360,000 tons.

My assertion…

…SPRFMO was the fastest most effective Commission in establishing strict science-

based Conservation and Management Measures

Point #4

Jack mackerel assessment and application to advice

Jack mackerel assessment background

2008 Santiago SPRFMO/FAO

workshop

2009 SWG 8 call for simulation testing (ASTT)

2010 ASTT Lima • Simulation testing

task team

2011 Preliminary model accepted

for advice

2012 SWG Lima Alternative

stock hypothesis

SC01 2013 Full assessment and

Model revisions SC02 2014

Full Assessment and projections

SC03 2015 Assessment update only—just new data Data compilation focus

SC04 2016 Full assessment and projections

Assessment data 4

“Fle

ets”

Land

ings

all

year

s

Catch at age or length

Abundance Indices

Jack mackerel catches

Catch history updated, 2016 projected based on member input historic patterns

S-C Chile

N Chile

Offshore

Far-North

Model fit to CPUE and survey abundance indices

Fits to age data (S-C Chilean fleet)

SPRFMO Jack mackerel assessment

Examine effect of new data

Model configuration sensitivities

SPRFMO Jack mackerel assessment

Working hypotheses on population structure

Stock structure hypotheses

Hypothesis Stock Fleets

Hypothesis 1 (multiple stocks)

Northern Stock Far north

Southern Stock Northern Central-South Offshore fleet

Hypothesis 2 Single stock

Far north Northern Chile Central-South Chile Offshore fleet

*Hypotheses as presented from the 2008 SPRFMO/FAO meeting

SPRFMO Jack mackerel assessment

Conceptual model of connectivity

Ocean

Circulation

Model

Resolves

eddies

Source: INPESCA

Sources of uncertainty

• Within model – Data precision

• Between models – Structural uncertainty

• Projections – Environmental effects

on recruitment etc.

Diagnostics

Lack

of f

it

Likelihood profiling…

SPRFMO Jack mackerel assessment

Diagnostics Re

crui

tmen

t

Year

With new data

No new data

“Retrospective” pattern

SPRFMO Jack mackerel assessment

The image part with relationship ID rId4 was not found in the file.

Spawning biomass (kt) Fishing mortality

Recruitment Catches (kt)

Stock summary Single stock

Stock summary Northern stock

Spawning biomass (kt) Fishing mortality

Recruitment Catches (kt)

Stock summary Southern stock

Spawning biomass (kt) Fishing mortality

Recruitment Catches (kt)

Science Advice summary

–“Good” probability to continue to increase spawning biomass

Point #5

What about environmental drivers of this small pelagic resource?

Recruitment “regimes”

2000-2013

1970-2013

SC stock status indicators

0

5000

10000

15000

0 2500 5000 7500 10000

Age

one

recr

uitm

ent (

mill

ions

)

Spawning biomass (thousands of t)

4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4Recruitment “regimes”

Considering full time series

Recruits from 2000-2013

Stock status considerations

Communicating to Commission…

Catch projections

• Table 1…higher productivity

kt

kt

kt

kt

kt

kt

kt

kt

kt

Catch projections

• Table 1…lower productivity

Recruitment “regimes”

2000-2013

1970-2013

SC stock status indicators

Recent recruitment

Spawning stock projections & rebuilding

No fishing

Year

Spaw

ning

bio

mas

s (k

t)

Over different

future fishing

mortality rates

Spawning stock projections & rebuilding

Over different

future fishing

mortality rates Full recruitment

history

No fishing

Year

Spaw

ning

bio

mas

s (k

t)

F t/F

MSY

Bt/BMSY Stock status (Biomass)

Relativ

e Fi

shin

g ra

te

Stock status and history

SC Advice summary to Commission

Jack mackerel assessment challenges

Growth

– Large variability between regions • And methods for age determination

Productivity

– Current stock status advice conservative • Recent low recruitment for projections • Target reference points based on full time series • Affects rebuilding plan

Spatial considerations

– Desire to tie catch limits to relative spatial distributions – Higher order problem (not to mention politics)

Review

1. Big area, important fisheries

2. Complex organizational task to create a Commission

3. Science endeavor to manage the region’s fisheries

4. Jack mackerel assessment and application to advice

5. What about environmental drivers of this small pelagic resource?

Courtecy of Tomasz Raczyński and Ad Corten

Thanks!

Successful management of small pelagics within a large international region: �The case for collaborative assessment work within the recently formed �South Pacific Regional Fisheries Management Organization (SPRFMO)�4th Scientific Committee�October 2016Point #1The South Pacific Regional Fishery Management Organization…Jack mackerel fisheryPoint #2The South Pacific Regional Fishery Management Organization…Slide Number 8Slide Number 9Complex task…Point #3SPRFMO Science-management interface…The South Pacific Regional Fishery Management Organization…Perceptions…early 2012Jack mackerel Conservation and Management Measure�1st Commission meeting, 2013Jack mackerel Conservation and Management Measure�1st Commission meeting, 2013My assertion…Point #4Jack mackerel assessment backgroundAssessment dataJack mackerel catchesModel fit to CPUE and survey abundance indicesFits to age data (S-C Chilean fleet)SPRFMO Jack mackerel assessmentSPRFMO Jack mackerel assessmentWorking hypotheses on population structureStock structure hypothesesSlide Number 28Slide Number 29Sources of uncertaintyDiagnosticsDiagnosticsSlide Number 33Stock summary�Northern stockStock summary�Southern stockSlide Number 36Point #5Recruitment “regimes”Recruitment “regimes”Communicating to Commission…Catch projectionsCatch projectionsRecruitment “regimes”Spawning stock projections & rebuildingSpawning stock projections & rebuildingSlide Number 46SC Advice summary to CommissionJack mackerel assessment challengesReviewThanks!