Success stories: from genetic resource to climate adaptation

From genetic resources to success stories

Andy Jarvis, CCAFS

ccafs.cgiar.org

In order to meet global demands, we

will need

60-70% more food

by 2050.

Why breeding? Food Security

IPCC 2013

Global wheat

and maize

yields:

response to

warming

Why breeding? - Adaptation

Results: which crops, when, where?

Which? Maize, bananas and beans

millets, sorghum, yams, cassava & groundnut are (mainly) stable.

When and where? Beans

Beans will lose 60%

cropping area (RCP

8.5): 1.85 million

hectares of current

bean cropping

systems in Uganda

and Tanzania,

which grow 41% of

total sub-Saharan

African bean

supply, will be

unable to do so by

2100.

When and where? MaizeProjected maize

transformations

represent 5% of

Nigeria's current

production by the

2050s and 25%

by 2100 (RCP 8.5)

0.5% maize areas

have no viable crop

substitution option

These areas total

0.8 Mha in the dry

zones of South

Africa (currently

grow 2.7 Mt)

Can we breed our way out of the problem?

Ray DK, Mueller ND, West PC, Foley JA (2013) Yield Trends Are Insufficient to Double Global Crop Production by 2050. PLoS ONE

8(6): e66428. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0066428

http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0066428

Can we breed our way out of the problem?

Timeframe to release a new variety

Year activity

0 installation of a collection

1 selection of parents and multiplication

of selected parents

2-3 crosses and seed germination

4-5 F1 selection, cloning and evaluation

6-7 multiplication and crosses

8-9 F2 selection, cloning and evaluation

10-13 multi-locational testing

14-16 on-farm testing

17 large scale distribution

Limiting factors for bean production

Heat & drought are breeding priorities

Low temperature

High temperature

Drought

Excess water

Slide courtesy

Steve Beebe, CIAT

High Temperature Greenhouses

David Cavagnaro

Phaseolus spp. Genetic diversity and useful traits

Secondary

• coccineus

• dumosus

• costaricensis

Vigorous rooting

Pest/disease resistance

Tertiary

• acutifolius

• parvifolius

Heat + drought resistance

Primary

• vulgaris

Humid-sub-humid Sub-humid to dry arid

Beebe (2017)

The El Nino bean

Drought-tolerant maize

Masuka et al. submitted

Yiel

d u

nd

er d

rou

ght

stre

ss (

t h

a-1

)

Current yield gain

Expected yield gains based on incorporating new technologies (doubled haploid, breeder ready markers, increased selection intensity, remote sensing, decision support tools)

Drought Tolerant Maize for Africa initiative has already benefited 30-40 million

people in 13 African countries.

Is more benefit possible?

Heat-tolerant maize

New heat stress tolerant hybrid Most popular hybrid in southern Africa

HEAD START: heat tolerance breeding work started

5 years ahead of demand from private sector –

ready in 2016 not 2021

Participatory plant breeding

Beans are a women’s crop

Important to combine heat-tolerance

and drought-tolerance with other

valued traits

Not looking to promote a single variety

everywhere; local preferences and

plasticity matter

Bean variety testing with 215 female &

143 male farmers

Men value traits: yield & market value

Women also value traits: short cooking

times, tastiness, high nutritional value

& climate responses

Mukankusi et al 2015. CCAFS WP 143

Florunner, with low

root-knot nematode

resistance

COAN, with population

density of root-knot

nematodes >90% less

than in Florunner

Wild relative

speciesA. batizocoi - 12 germplasm accessions

A. cardenasii - 17 germplasm accessions

A. diogoi - 5 germplasm accessions

Genetic resources: under threat

The “primary regions of diversity” of crops

Production value

Global web of interdependence in primary regions of diversity of crops

in production systems