Subtitle text can go here Economic Minute November 13, 2014 [email protected] Director Seidman Research Institute
Dec 24, 2015
Subtitle text can go here
Economic MinuteNovember 13, 2014
[email protected] Seidman Research Institute
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“No. 11 Sun Devils beat No. 8 Irish 55-31”
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ASU and Notre Dame
Coach Kelly calls it the “Debacle in the Desert”
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Reflections on 1966 from one observer… “In 1966, Notre Dame head coach Ara Parseghian made a decision that would rattle the constituency of the sport”
He instructed his players to run out the clock and play for the tie rather than try to win
The next week the Irish thrashed USC whileMichigan State’s season was over thanksTo the Big Ten’s “no repeat” rule for the Rose Bowl
Notre Dame was awarded the “national championship” So in 1966, Playing it safe, or complacency paid off
The strategy was dubbed“playing it Parseghian” and “playing it Parseghian” paid offIn 1966 for the Irish
DecadeRank
PopulationGrowth (%)
EmploymentGrowth (%)
IncomeGrowth (%)
1960 - 1970 3rd 3rd 4th
1970 - 1980 2nd 3rd 3rd
1980 - 1990 3rd 3rd 5th
1990 - 2000 2nd 2nd 3rd
2000 - 2007 2nd 3rd 4th
2008 - 2010 14th 49th 44th
2013 8th 10th 18th
Arizona: A Leading Growth State
Annual Growth Rates from U.S. Bureau of Census; U.S. BLS; U. S. BEA
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State Rank by YTDPercent Change – Sept.
10
72
49
6
3
45
9
14
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Top 10 Growth States
U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
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Arizona Job Growth 14th YTD 2014(AZ Jobs Up by 1.9% - 25 yr. Average is 3.9%)
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2012
2013
2014
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Year to date Nonfarm Job Growth by State(thous of jobs)
Subhead text goes hereState rank % growth number jobs
North Dakota 1 4.55 20.04 460.48
Nevada 2 3.58 41.78 1,209.36
Texas 3 3.26 362.61 11,494.28
Utah 4 3.1 39.77 1,321.19
Florida 5 2.94 221.61 7,753.76
Oregon 6 2.82 46.94 1,710.03
Colorado 7 2.75 65.21 2,434.14
Delaware 8 2.51 10.68 435.58
California 9 2.24 337.43 15,400.56
Washington 10 2.19 65.24 3,040.57
Arizona 14 1.94 48.61 2,548.14Eighth in the West
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Year to date Goods Prod. Job Growth by State(thous of jobs)
Subhead text goes hereState rank%
growth number jobsNorth Dakota 1 9.97 8.4 92.66Florida 2 6.71 46.32 736.64Nevada 3 6.33 7.1 119.35Utah 4 5.17 10.56 214.95Colorado 5 4.79 13.85 303.21Alaska 6 4.26 2.18 53.24Minnesota 7 3.91 16.26 431.88Delaware 8 3.52 1.57 46.31Texas 9 3.43 60.83 1834.37Indiana 10 3.25 20.19 642.05
Arizona 47 -0.68 -1.99 289.91
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Year to date Construction Job Growth by State(thous of jobs)
Subhead text goes hereState rank%
growth number jobsNevada 1 10.98 6.13 62Florida 2 10.85 39.19 400.46Utah 3 8.74 6.36 79.07Minnesota 4 8.04 7.94 106.72North Dakota 5 8.04 2.59 34.8Colorado 6 5.83 7.29 132.3Kansas 7 5.75 3.22 59.26California 8 5.7 35.94 666.26Oregon 9 5.54 4.03 76.88Connecticut 10 5.35 2.83 55.81
Arizona 39 -1.03 -1.27 121.13
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Year to date NonFarm Job Growth by Metro (thous of jobs)
Subhead text goes hereMetro rank % growth number jobs
Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL 1 3.66 38.68 1096.31
Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX 2 3.47 96.41 2870.99
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX 3 3.42 105.02 3177.57
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL 4 3.02 70.42 2403.24
Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA 5 2.87 29.51 1059.51
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA 6 2.78 33.83 1250.57
Denver-Aurora-Broomfield, CO 7 2.77 35.68 1322.79
San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA 8 2.61 54.52 2145.98
Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA 9 2.59 46.04 1822.99
San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA 10 2.4 31.31 1337.71
Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale, AZ 12 2.24 40.22 1838.729th in the West
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Year to date Goods Prod. Job Growth by Metro (thous of jobs)
Subhead text goes hereMetro rank % growth number jobs
Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL 1 6.77 5.98 94.24
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL 2 5.45 9.23 178.72
San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA 3 4.76 7.4 162.76
Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX 4 4.23 23.06 568.4
San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA 5 4.04 8.47 218.06
Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor, OH 6 3.86 6.08 163.52
Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA 7 3.69 6.17 173.1
Denver-Aurora-Broomfield, CO 8 3.62 5.17 148.04
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL 9 3.55 4.12 120.13
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA 10 3.5 8.43 249.09
Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale, AZ 27 -0.74 -1.59 212.16
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Year to date Construction Job Growth by Metro (thous of jobs)
Subhead text goes hereSan Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA 1 9.62 5.8 66.11
Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL 2 8.85 4.43 54.53
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA 3 8.45 16.18 207.57
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL 4 8.14 7.47 99.17
San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA 5 6.41 5.98 99.18
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA 6 6.28 5.68 96.12
Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA 7 6.08 3.08 53.72
Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX 8 4.47 8.43 196.91
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA 9 4.4 3.01 71.4
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL 10 3.08 1.72 57.57
Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA 11 3.05 2.7 91.13
Pittsburgh, PA 12 1.87 0.99 53.76
Chicago-Joliet-Naperville, IL-IN-WI 13 1.6 2.37 149.87
Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale, AZ 14 -1.18 -1.09 91.53
Top Ten Metro Destinations: 20131. Houston
(55,620)6. San Antonio
(22,392)
2. Dallas (32,641) 7. Charlotte (21,382)
3. Phoenix (32,014) 8. Nashville (17,975)
4. Denver (26,536) 9. Seattle (17,926)
5. Austin (25,908 10. Orlando (17,316)
Phoenix 3rd Among MetroNet Migration Destinations
(But Phoenix Gained 96,000 in 2006)
U. S. Census Bureau
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So Where do we go from here??
• Simply Wait it out• “Play it Parseghian”, AZ always comes back
• Market the State• So what are the key assets?
• Cut more Taxes• Which ones?• How do we pay the bills?
• Economic Development Strategy• Workforce and Skills• Affordable land and labor• Most infrastructure in place
• Can we afford to be complacent this time? • Will “playing it Parseghian” work in 2014?