Submitted by, Athul S B Guided by, Dr.Mehamood Muthedath Dr.Azeela Ahammad Dr.Aswathi 1.

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Global WarmingGreatest Threat To Humanity

Submitted by, Athul S BGuided by, Dr.Mehamood Muthedath Dr.Azeela Ahammad Dr.Aswathi

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Our Focus

Global warming – Overview

Causes of global warming

Effects of global warming

Control global warming

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What is Global Warming?

• Global warming is the increase in the average temperature of the Earth's near-surface air and oceans since the mid-twentieth century and its projected continuation.

• In the last 100 years, Earth's average surface temperature increased by about 0.8 °C (1.4 °F) with about two thirds of the increase occurring over just the last three decades.

• This hurts many people, animals, and plants. Many cannot take the change, so they die.

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• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) indicate that during the 21st century the global surface temperature is likely to rise a further 1.5 to 1.9 °C (2.7 to 3.4 °F) for the lowest emissions scenario and 3.4 to 6.1 °C (6.1 to 11 °F) for their highest.

• Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and scientists are more than 90% certain most of it is caused by increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases produced by human activities such as deforestation and burning fossil fuel.

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Observed temperature changes

• Evidence for warming of the climate system includes observed increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level.

• Current estimates by the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) show 2005 as the second warmest year, behind 1998 with 2003 and 2010 tied for third warmest year

• Temperature changes vary over the globe. Since 1979, land temperatures have increased about twice as fast as ocean temperatures (0.25 °C per decade against 0.13 °C per decade).

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• Ocean temperatures increase more slowly than land temperatures because of the larger effective heat capacity of the oceans and because the ocean loses more heat by evaporation.

• The Northern Hemisphere warms faster than the Southern Hemisphere because it has more land and because it has extensive areas of seasonal snow and sea-ice cover subject to ice-albedo feedback.

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Global Warming - Examples

June 2002 Dec 2003

Colorado River, Arizona

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Global Warming - Examples

1914

2004

Portage Glacier, Alaska

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Main causeImbalance in greenhouse effect

Fossil fuel burning

Deforestation

Population growth

Particulates and soot Particulates produced by volcanoes Human made pollutants Black carbon

Solar variation Changes Sun’s output Changes in solar luminosity Variations in Earth's orbit

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Imbalance in greenhouse effect

• The greenhouse effect is the process by which absorption and emission of infrared radiation by gases in the atmosphere warm a planet's lower atmosphere and surface.

• It was proposed by Joseph Fourier in 1824.

• Naturally occurring amounts of greenhouse gases have a mean warming effect of about 33 °C (59 °F).

• Naturally occurring green house gases are,

Water vapor, Carbon dioxide (CO2), Methane (CH4), Ozone (O3)

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The Sun’s energy passes through the car’s windshield.

This energy (heat) is trapped inside the car and cannot pass back through the windshield, causing the inside of the car to warm up.

Green house effect

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• Human activity since the Industrial Revolution has increased the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, leading to increased radiative forcing from CO2, methane, tropospheric ozone, CFCs and nitrous oxide.

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Carbon dioxide

• Humans have increased carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere by more than 37% since the Industrial Revolution.

• It is generated by the human activities like burning of coal, wood, natural gas.oil etc.

• It is also released by animals & human beings during the process of respiration.

• The trees take in the carbon dioxide, therefore deforestation is also an important reason for increase in carbon dioxide.

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Why it happens?

Burning carbon-containing fossil fuels produces carbon dioxide

C + O2 = CO2

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Nitrous Oxide

• It is generated due to burning of biomass, agriculture, livestock waste, nitrogen rich fuels.

• It accounts for 6% of the gases responsible for global warming.

Nitrous oxide from fertilizers and other chemicals

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Methane• Methane accounts for 16%

of all gases responsible for global warming .

• It is estimated that nearly 30 to 200 million tones of methane is released every year.

• The main source of methane is rice paddies both ends of animals, garbage in landfills and mining operations.

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Chlorofluorocarbon [CFCS]

• It accounts for nearly 20% of the gases responsible for global warming.

• These are non-toxic, nonflammable & highly stable compounds.

• They are also used as coolants in compressors of air conditioners & refrigerators.

• They are also use in insulators, fire extinguishers, aerosol etc.

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• The popular media and the public often confuse global warming with the ozone hole, i.e., the destruction of stratospheric ozone by chlorofluorocarbons.

• The relationship between the two is not strong. Reduced stratospheric ozone has had a slight cooling influence on surface temperatures, while increased tropospheric ozone has had a somewhat larger warming effect.

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Particulates and soot

• Global dimming, a gradual reduction in the amount of global direct irradiance at the Earth's surface. The main cause of this dimming is particulates produced by volcanoes and human made pollutants, which exerts a cooling effect by increasing the reflection of incoming sunlight.

• Sulfates act as cloud condensation nuclei and thus lead to clouds that have more and smaller cloud droplets. These clouds reflect solar radiation more efficiently than clouds with fewer and larger droplets, known as the Twomey effect.

• Soot may cool or warm the surface, depending on whether it is airborne or deposited. Atmospheric soot directly absorb solar radiation, which heats the atmosphere and cools the surface.

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Solar variation

• Variations in solar output have been the cause of past climate changes. The effect of changes in solar forcing in recent decades is uncertain, but small, with some studies showing a slight cooling effect, while others studies suggest a slight warming effect.

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Global Warming - Effects

Natural systems

Ecological systems

Wildlife effects

humans

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Melting Sea IceMelting Sea Ice

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IPCC (2007a:5) found that, on average, mountain glaciers and snow cover had decreased in both the northern and southern hemispheres. This widespread decrease in glaciers and ice caps has contributed to observed sea level rise.

In September 2007 an area the size of Florida (69,000 square miles) melted in six days (NSIDC 2007)

Natural systems

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Snow cover area and sea ice extent are expected to decrease, with the Arctic expected to be largely ice-free in

September by 2037.(U.S National Center for Atmospheric Research, 2006)

2000 2037

Melting Sea Ice

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Sea-level rise projections : a few inches to a few feet•Rise of sea levels by at least 25 meters(82 feet by the year 2100•2 ft: U.S. would lose 10,000 square miles•3 ft: Would inundate Miami•Affects erosion, loss of wetlands, freshwater supplies•Half of the world’s population lives along coasts

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As the temperature of oceans rise, so will the probability of more frequent and stronger hurricanes.

Warmer waters and more hurricanes

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Increased probability and intensity of droughts and heat waves

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Increase in frequent volcanic eruptions due to rise in

temperatures

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Forest fire increased due to hot winds

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Spread of disease

• As northern countries warm, disease carrying insects migrate north, bringing swine flu and other disease with them.

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Climate Change

IPCC (2007a:8) predicted that in the future, over most land areas, the frequency of warm spells or heat waves would very likely increase.

Climate change happens when there is a change in– Sun’s output– Earth’s orbit– Drifting continents– Volcanic eruptions– Greenhouse gases.

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Ecological systems

• Future climate change is expected to particularly affect certain ecosystems, including tundra, mangroves, and coral reefs

• It is expected that most ecosystems will be affected by higher atmospheric CO2 levels, combined with higher global temperatures.

• Climate change will result in the extinction of many species and reduced diversity of ecosystems.

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Wildlife effects

• Effects of global warming on animals is one of serious threat to – Biodiversity– Extinction

• Some species migrates from one place to other for survival.

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Species migration

• Gray whale is thought to have migrated from the Pacific Ocean via the Arctic.

• Neodenticula seminae alga has been found in the North Atlantic, where it had gone extinct nearly 800,000 years ago. The alga has drifted from the Pacific Ocean through the Arctic, following the reduction in polar ice.

• Polar bear who depend on sea ice announced as an endangered species.

• Since 1989, the Porcupine Caribou Herd has declined at 3.5% per year to a low of 123,000 animals in 2001

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Migratory Birds Population appears to be “in

peril”(Consensus Report, 2006)

Declined from over 7 million to 3.39 million

Record low in 2006: 3.2 million

70% breed in western boreal forest;

Fastest rate of decline there “Declines reflect breeding season events.

19% wetland loss in Yukon Flats

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Effects on human beings

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Social systems

• Adversely affect hundreds of millions of people through increased coastal flooding, reductions in water supplies, increased malnutrition and increased health impacts.

• Future warming of around 3 °C (by 2100, relative to 1990-2000) could result in increased crop yields in mid- and high-latitude areas, but in low-latitude areas, yields could decline, increasing the risk of malnutrition.

• Most economic studies suggest losses of world gross domestic product (GDP) for this magnitude of warming.

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Human Health

• Global warming will affect human health in a number of different ways

• The spread of infectious diseases will be affected

• Agriculture will be affected

• Extreme weather patterns will be affected

• The amount of smog near the ground will be affected

• The supply of freshwater available to humans will be affected

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Human Health and Extreme Weather Patterns

• A study done in relation to the city of New York shows that the number of people who die heat related deaths annually there would increase to around 1,700 people annually also by only 2050

• Also, there a potential trend for more hurricanes when the temperature of the seas increase because hurricanes are fueled by warm ocean waters.

• Although the actual number of hurricanes may not increase as a result of global warming, it is their intensity that is thought to increase, or their potential energy.

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Human Health and Water Supply

• Due to global warming the amount of annual precipitation and the amount of ice converted to freshwater from the polar ice caps is projected to increase.

• A rise in sea level is projected for 2100 of as much as 40 centimeters.

• This rise in sea level could not only destroy human dwellings and human places of agricultural production but could also destroy many sea-side aquifers which would deplete the general water supply for humankind.

WHAT CAN WE DO?Ways to stop/control global warming

Responses to global warming

1. Mitigation

• Reducing the amount of future climate change is called mitigation of climate change.

• The IPCC defines mitigation as activities that reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, or enhance the capacity of carbon sinks to absorb GHGs from the atmosphere.

• Policies include targets for emissions reductions, increased use of renewable energy, and increased energy efficiency. Studies indicate substantial potential for future reductions in emissions.

Energy Conservation

• It is one of the most important task that should be considered

• Using alternate sources of energy in daily life is better way to conserve energy

• Conserve electricity! • DO NOT leave appliances on standby

REDUCE USE

Plastic bags and cups do not decompose so harmful to environment

Paper bags and cups are eco friendly and easily decomposable

Reduce the usage of cars for short distances

Walk /use cycles for short distances

Advantages of 3R’s

Reduction of wastages

Less pollution

Efficient use of

resources

Increase in energy

2. Adaptation

• Adaptation to climate change may be planned, e.g., by local or national government, or spontaneous, i.e., done privately without government intervention.

• The ability to adapt is closely linked to social and economic development.

• Planned adaptation is already occurring on a limited basis.

3. Geoengineering

• Geoengineering encompasses a range of techniques to remove CO2 from the atmosphere or to reflect incoming sunlight.

• As most geoengineering techniques would affect the entire globe, deployment would likely require global public acceptance and an adequate global legal and regulatory framework, as well as significant further scientific research.

POLITICS

• United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) (140 countries, as of November 2010)

The ultimate objective of the Convention is to prevent "dangerous" human interference of the climate system.

As is stated in the Convention, this requires that GHG concentrations are stabilized in the atmosphere at a level where ecosystems can adapt naturally to climate change, food production is not threatened, and economic development can proceed in a sustainable fashion.

• G77 (a lobbying group in the United Nations representing 133 developing nations)

Mandate requiring developed countries to "[take] the lead" in reducing their emissions.

This was justified on the basis that: the developed world's emissions had contributed most to the stock of GHGs in the atmosphere.

Kyoto Protocol

• It is a protocol to the UNFCCC, aimed at fighting global warming.

• The Protocol was initially adopted on 11 December 1997 in Kyoto, Japan, and entered into force on 16 February 2005. As of September 2011, 191 states have signed and ratified the protocol.

• The only remaining signatory not to have ratified the protocol is the United States. Other states yet to ratify Kyoto include Afghanistan, Andorra and South Sudan, after Somalia ratified the protocol on 26 July 2010.

• In 2011, Canada declared its intention to withdraw from the Kyoto treaty.

• Under the Protocol, 37 countries ("Annex I countries") commit themselves to a reduction of four greenhouse gases (GHG) (carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, sulphur hexafluoride) and two groups of gases (hydrofluorocarbons and perfluorocarbons) produced by them,

Participation in the Kyoto Protocol, as of December 2011,Brown = Countries that have signed and ratified the treaty             (Annex I & II countries in dark brown)Blue = No intention to ratify at this stage.Dark blue = Canada, which withdrew from the Protocol in Dec 2011.Grey = no position taken or position unknown

Actions against climate change in India

• In 1980, the Dept. of Environment was established in India. Later on it became the Ministry of Environment and Forests in 1985.

• Objective is, to provide the protection and improvement of environment. Also, to safeguard the forests and wildlife of the country.Acc. to sec 51(A) every citizen shall protect the environment.

Environmental legislations

General• 1986- The environmental act• 1986- The environment (protection) rules• 1989- The objective of hazardous waste (management &

handling) rules• 1991- The public liability insurance act & rules and

amendment

Forest & wildlife• 1927- Indian forest act& amendment• 1972- Wildlife protection act• 1980- The forest act & rules• 1974- The water (prevention & control of pollution) act

Air• 1948- The factories act & amendment 1987• 1987- The Air (prevention & control of pollution) act

• India announced “clean energy tax” on coal to create a national fund to support renewable energy projects and a “tax break” for imports on renewable energy equipment.

• Both measures aim to bolster cleantech investments and innovation to meet India’s national target to reduce emissions intensity of its GDP by 20-25 percent from 2005 levels by 2020 as submitted to the United Nations on January 31.

• As Prime Minister Singh emphasized during TERI’s 10th Delhi Sustainable Development Summit, India “fully support[s]” the Copenhagen Accord.”

Five climate actions that India announced recently are:

• Indian government will exempt renewable machinery, such as solar equipment, parts for rotor blades used in wind turbines, and electric vehicles, from a tax on the production of goods. 

• The Indian Planning Commission will convene an expert group to prepare a roadmap for India’s low-carbon growth strategy as part of its National Communication to the UNFCCC. 

• The Ministry of Environment and Forests will create an Indian Network for Comprehensive Climate Change Assessment - a network of over 120 research institutes that will publish regular reports (the first scheduled for November 2010) on the impacts of climate change on different Indian sectors. 

• India will step up its national emissions report to the UNFCCC every other year, instead of every four years as it had done in the past.  

• India has set up a Global Advisory Network Group on Environmental Sciences (GANGES) consisting of the world’s leading environmental scientists of Indian origin, established to advise the Indian government’s environmental sciences agenda.

As an individual you can consciously care for Earth. With over a billion people in our country, a united effort to reduce global warming will surely change the world… for the better!

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