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STATE OF MICHIGAN
DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATIONLANSING
THOMAS D. WATKINS, JR.SUPERINTENDENT OFPUBLIC INSTRUCTION
JENNIFER M. GRANHOLMGOVERNOR
TO: State Board of Education
FROM: Tom Watkins
DATE: September 9,2004
SUBJ: APPROVAL OF CALCULATION OF ADEQUATEYEARLY PROGRESS FOR
SMALL, RURAL ANDSPECIALIZED SCHOOLS
The No Child Left Behind Act of2001 (NCLB) requires states to
calculate adequate yearlyprogress (A YP) for all public schools. At
the same time, the Act pemrits each state to declare aminimum
number of students that need to be enrolled in the grade level or
student group to betested, in order to calculate A YP. In our
recent issuance of elementary and middle school reportcards, we
were unable to calculate A yP for 118 schools that did not have
sufficient numbers ofstudents.
In order to comply with the law and issue A yP designations to
these small schools, as well as toother specialized schools that
did not get a report card (for example, Special Education
centerprograms), we are proposing the use of a modified confidence
interval.
This modified confidence interval is described in the attached
pages, which consist of amemorandum sent to the U.S. Department of
Education for the Department's preliminaryreVIew.
On September 9, we were informed that the U. S. Department of
Education will approve ourconfidence interval proposal, if it is
approved by the State Board of Education.
dated Seotember 2. 2004. to calculate A yP for small. rural. and
snecialized schools whosestudent enrollments. at the erade levels
tested. are less than 30.
STATE BOARD OF EDUCATION
KATHLEEN N. STRAUS - PRESIDENT. HERBERT S. MOYER - VICE
PRESIDENTCAROLYN L. CURTIN - SECRETARY. JOHN C. AUSTIN -
TREASURER
MARIANNE YARED MCGUIRE - NASBE DELEGATE. ELIZABETH W.
BAUERREGINALD M. TURNER. EilEEN LAPPIN WEISER
608 WEST ALLEGAN STREET. P.O. BOX 30008 . LANSING. MICHIGAN
48909www.michigan.gov/mde . (517) 373-3324
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MICHIGAN~EducaltiOitTHOMAS D. WATKINS, JR.
SUPERINTENDENT OFPUBLIC INSTRUCTION
STATE OF MICHIGAN
DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATIONLANSING
JENNIFER M. GRANHOLMGOVERNOR
TO:
FROM
DarIa Marburger, U.S. Office of Education
JeremyM. Hughes, Ph.D. M\ Chief Academic
Officer/D~~perintendent
DATE: September 2, 2004
SUBJ: PROPOSED CONFIDENCE INTERVAL FOR SMALLSCHOOLS
Per our phone conversation yesterday, we intend to propose to
the State Board of Education, atits September 14,2004 meeting, that
a sliding-scale type of confidence interval be applied tosmall
schools that enroll fewer than 30 students at the grade level
tested. (Thirty [30] is theminimum N that you have approved for
Michigan for purposes of calculating A yP based on theachievement
scores of students in English Language Arts and Mathematics.)
I am attaching excel files depicting how the confidence
intervals would be applied to the varioussizes of schools, ranging
from 29 students to 1. (Note that there is only one excel file for
middleschools since the middle school achievement target is the
same for both ELA and Math.)
You will note that we are applying the confidence interval not
to achievement scores but to thepercentages of students who need to
demonstrate proficiency on the state assessments in orderfor the
school to be considered making A YP. For example, an elementary
school with 20students enrolled needs to have 35% of its students
proficient on the state ELA test, as opposedto 38% (the state
target) for schools of 30 or more students.
I acknowledge that this "sliding scale" is a bit unusual, as
well as perhaps the application of aconfidence interval to the
percent-proficient as opposed to actual achievement scores. We
feel,however, this proposal has the best chance of being approved
by our State Board of Education.As you know from some of our
earlier conversations, our state board has been opposed to the
useof a traditional confidence interval fonnula because of the wide
score range that results,allowing, perhaps, more schools to be
classified as making A yP when they are actually notachieving well
and are in need of improvement.
The sliding scale being proposed imposes, we feel, a more
conservative, rigorous criterion thatwill still benefit small
schools to a certain degree.
STATE BOARD OF EDUCATION
KATHLEEN N. STRAUS - PRESIDENT. HERBERT S. MOYER - VICE
PRESIDENTCAROLYN L CURTIN - SECRETARY. JOHN C. AUSTIN -
TREASURER
MARIANNE YARED MCGUIRE - NASBE DELEGATE. ELIZABETH W.
BAUERREGINALD M. TURNER. EilEEN LAPPIN WEISER
608 WEST ALLEGAN STREET. P.O. BOX 30008 . LANSING, MICHIGAN
48909_.michigan.gov/rnde . (517) 373-3324
2
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Page 2
In our conversation yesterday, I also mentioned that we were
considering a request to use a"backmapping" approach with these
schools as a second tier to detem1ine A YP. In other words,after
the application of the proposed confidence interval formula above,
if the school were stillnot making A yP we would consider whether
the school could make A yP by backmapping theA yP designation of
the school into which it fed its students. Weare not longer
considering thisand it will not be part of our proposed
Accountability Workbook amendments.
I would appreciate hearing from you as soon as possible, in
order to begin preparing materialsfor the September 14 State Board
of Education meeting.
If you or your psychometric staff have questions about our
proposal, I would also invite you tocontact our Department of
Education psychometrician, Dr. Joseph Martineau, at
517-241-1740.
3
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