Stuff stuff and long car trips! Application of the 4see socio-economic-energy model to the UK and designing future scenarios Simon Roberts Foresight Group Arup (London) Seminar to: The Design Group The Open University (Milton Keynes) 13 th January 2010
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Stuff stuff and long car trips! Application of the 4see socio-economic-energy model to the UK and designing future scenarios Simon Roberts Foresight Group.
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Stuff stuff and long car trips!
Application of the 4see socio-economic-energy model to the UK and designing future scenarios
• We’ve all heard about climate change…• But COP15 at Copenhagen only reached an accord.• Climate change has slipped from the “finite pool of worry” (fatigue)
– In 2008 and 2009, climate change fell to the bottom of people’s list of concerns as anxiety about the economy rose.
• Then there’s “peak oil”…• And what about just plain sustainable development (recall Report of
the Brundtland Commission 1987)?• What are we actually going to do?
1. “Goods Tax” of 15% (say)• Note: services have no extra tax
2. Non-consumers get rebate so only consumers are hit• Note: very similar to VAT except targeted specifically on goods
and hypothecated (as follows)
3. This Goods Tax (less non-consumer rebate) goes into “REEF”, the Renewables and Energy Efficiency Fund
4. REEF used by national and local government for major investment programme into:• large- and small-scale renewables• energy efficiency improvement for all properties (homes,
• is an extensive (complete?) picture of economy• is a socio + economic + energy model• has a full physical basis• sets maximum physical envelope for physical growth• handles opportunity costs of investment options• handles “how quickly can we…?”• sets its own rate of growth
• Growth is spurred by need to provide employment..• ..against a background of declining need for labour
(labour is a declining factor of production)• 2 views:
“…This prospect of investment falling and creating widespread unemployment terrifies governments so much that they work very closely with their business sectors to ensure that their economies continue to grow almost regardless of any social or environmental damage the growth process may be causing.”
“The Economic Challenge of Sustainability” Douthwaite & Siochrú (2006)
“a country’s ability to improve its standard of living over time depends almost entirely on its ability to raise its output per worker.”
“The Age of Diminished Expectations” Paul Krugman (1994)
Vision of 2025 under Stuff stuff and long car trips
• You’ve got a job!• Shop prices are up (a little)• Long car trips are expensive• More home and local working• Its easier and less costly to use trains and coaches, and travel is in
comfortable stock• Increase in recreation and leisure services• Care services for the aged have increased
• But CO2 is down only 40% by 2025...• …and there is still growth of stuff.• Need a fundamental review of employment.• Hint from Denmark on enlightened employment policies in 1990s.• More research needed.• Anyone got any ideas on this?