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Studying the Issues of Gold Price Movements 1

Apr 06, 2018

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  • 8/3/2019 Studying the Issues of Gold Price Movements 1

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    0 od 47

    Rtugyfjk tec fssucs od kolg prfbc hovchcjts

    Bohpflcg my R2r` Rut`j ]`ao @lfA`n`rt`, 00 Dcmru`ry =90=

    =90=9096 Kolg Wfppcg to Nccp oj Refjfjk=90=9096 Kolg Yrfbcs Rcttlc Lowcr=9000=29 S.R. Kolg Yrfbcs=9000==6 Kolg, Rflvcr Yluhm ]cbcjt Lows=9000==3 YMOB Oddfbf`l1 Befj` Reoulg @gaust DU Yortdolfo, Muy Kolg @sscts [ecj Yrfbc

    Grops=9000==7 Fjgf` Rlows ]use dor Kolg=9000==2 S.R. Kolg Yrfbcs=9000=06 Kolg, Rflvcr @ppc`r Rct to Refjc fj '0==9000=03 Kolgs Sps `jg Gowjs=9000=07 Rpc`nfjk od Ycoplc [eosc Hogcls E`vc D`flcg

    =9000=0= Kolg Loscs Fts Refjc=9000=96 Wec ]fsfjk Yrfbc od Kolg Moosts KWROs Outloon dor =90==9000=9; Kolg K`fjs @ec`g od Curopc`j Hcctfjks=9000=9= Kolg ]ctrc`ts `s CS Gcmt [orrfcs [cfke=90000== Fj Jcrvous H`rnct, Kolg K`fjs ]cspcbt`mflfty=90009=; Kolg Reoulg Kct M`bn to Mce`vfjk Lfnc ` R`dc E`vcj @jy G`y Jow1 @j`lysts=90096=5 Kolg, Rflvcr Wopplc `s CS Dc`rs Gr`fj Optfhfsh=90096== @ Kolg ]use [`jcs `s Ecgkc Dujgs Rcll=9009609 Wec Bojsbfcjbc od @ Lfmcr`l1 Kolgcj Rpfncs=9009694 Wec Bojsbfcjbc od @ Lfmcr`l1 Wrc`surfcs, WFYR, jg Kolg ([ojnfse)=9009506 Wec Efggcj G`jkcrs Fj R`dc E`vcjs=9009506 Kuy`j`1 Brfhc [`vc Jc`r Kolg Hfjcs=9009506 Kolg Refjcs Oj `jg Oj `jg Oj=9009505 Kolg `t ]cborg Yrfbcs, Vct Gch`jg E`s Rluhpcg=9009503 Kolg Dcvcr Krfppfjk tec @ustr`lf`j Outm`bn=9009595 SYG@WC1 Kolg Yrfbc Efts Y`rfty [fte Yl`tfjuh Dor Dfrst Wfhc Rfjbc =995=900959= Kolg Dcvcr Fs ` Ryhptoh=9009;=2 Fj ` Kolg Lovcdcst, Re`gcs od 0659=9009;06 Wec Bojsbfcjbc od @ Lfmcr`l1 Wec Klcjj Mcbn / GcMccrs Bojjcbtfoj=9009;03 Fs Kolg ` Bohpcllfjk Wr`gc or Lojk Wcrh Fjvcsthcjt?=90094=5 Wec Olg Rupcrstftfoj

    =90093=2 Kolg fs Jot `j Fjvcsthcjt=9009307 Ruggcjly, Kolg Fsjt Loonfjk Ro Rolfg=900939= [`ll Rtrcct Reruks Odd Gc`te od Mfj L`gcj `jg Wurjs @ttcjtfoj to C`rjfjks=9009=03 Kolg Rt`jg`rg=9009=92 Jcwhojt Hfjfjk Rtrfncs $= Mfllfoj Kolg Gc`l=9099692 Y`yfjk Werouke Wec Josc Dor Fjsur`jbc=9099407 Mcefjg Kolg's Klfttcr1 Worj L`jgs `jg Yofjtcg Pucstfojs=9099302 @ B`sc dor Kolg `t $3,999 `j Oujbc=909930= Kolg1 @ Low ]fsn Mct fj ` Efke ]fsn Cjvfrojhcjt=9099==4 [e`ts Wec Mcst [`y Wo Hovc @ H`rnct? Rprc`g @ ]uhor=99;0=95 Kolgs Pufrn1 Fts Tol`tflc, mut Eolgcrs Dccl Rcburc

    =994939; Dfjgfjk Bohdort (`jg Jcw Drfcjgs) fj Kolg=99909== Musfjcss> Eow Kolg E`s Murgcjcg Cbojohfcs

  • 8/3/2019 Studying the Issues of Gold Price Movements 1

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    R2r` Rut`j ]`ao @lf

    = od 47

    06669397 Cgftorf`l Omscrvcr> [eo Jccgs Kolg [ecj [c E`vc Krccjsp`j?06649509 [ey Jot tec Kolg Rt`jg`rg?06679390 Wec [orlg> @ Jfxoj Lck`by Gcv`lucg My ` Bolg [`r Rt`jg`rg

    ettp1//mloks.wsa.boh/sourbc/=90=/90/96/kolg -tfppcg-to-nccp-oj-sefjfjk/

    Kolg Wfppcg to Nccp oj RefjfjkMy ]ef`jjoj EoylcA`ju`ry 6, =90=, =176 YH KHW]cutcrs

    Kolg mulls `ppc`r to e`vc ojc vcry fhport`jt k`l fj tecfr borjcr.Cgcl Wully, prcbfous hct`ls str`tckfst dor Rwfss m`jn SMR, ` ncy pl`ycr fj tec Lojgoj kolgh`rnct, e`s bohc out tfppfjk kolg to r`lly `s efke `s $=,399 `j oujbc tefs yc`r fj ` survcy odfjgustry `j`lysts bojgubtcg my tec Lojgoj Mullfoj H`rnct @ssobf`tfoj, tec Lojgoj-m`scgtr`gc `ssobf`tfoj te`t rcprcscjts tec weolcs`lc h`rnct dor kolg `jg sflvcr fj Lojgoj.

    Jot ojly fs Hs. Wully ` vcry wcll-rck`rgcg `j`lyst `hojk ecr pccrs, mut sec w`s c`sfly techost `bbur`tc dorcb`stcr `hojk tec LMH@s bojtrfmutors l`st yc`r, e`vfjk tfppcg `j `vcr`kcod $0,339 `j oujbc. Wec `btu`l =900 `vcr`kc w`s $0,3;= `j oujbc (`jg tec `vcr`kc dorcb`st

    put dorw`rg my ecr dcllow bojtrfmutors w`s aust $0,73; `j oujbc).SMRs Yeflfp @umcrtfj, `j cxcbutfvc gfrcbtor wfte tec m`jn, e`g woj tec LMH@s prfzc odtec mcst kolg dorcb`stcr tec yc`r mcdorc.Hs. Wully fs tefs yc`r dorcb`stfjk `j `vcr`kc od $=,939 `j oujbc dor tec kolg prfbc, wfte `efke od $=,399 `j oujbc `jg ` low od $0,799 `j oujbc. Wefs bohp`rcs to `j `vcr`kc od aust$0,;44 `j oujbc `bross tec LMH@s =4 bojtrfmutors, weo tokctecr tfppcg $=,933 `j oujbcdor tec efke `jg $0,772 `j oujbc dor tec low.

    Hojg`y, spot kolg tec fhhcgf`tc prfbc p`fg dor peysfb`l hct`l fs tr`gfjk `roujg$0,404 `j oujbc.Hs. Wully s`fg fj ` rcbcjt jotc1[eflc tec dloor fs sohcwe`t ujblc`r, wc tefjn ` tfhc wfll bohc wecj ` kolg ruse boulg

    propcl tec hct`l sfkjfdfb`jtly efkecr te`j l`st yc`rs lcvcls. Wec b`t`lyst dor te`t, kfvcj kolgsrcbcjt rcl`tfojsefp wfte rfsn, fs ujblc`r. Mut qu`jtft`tfvc c`sfjk fj tec curo zojc e`s to mcjc`r tec top od tec lfst `jg so too fs tec rfsn od `j fjbrc`sfjk govfse Dcgcr`l ]cscrvc OpcjH`rnct Bohhfttcc.Rtfll, weflc Hs. Wully h`y mc horc mullfse oj mullfoj te`j ecr boujtcrp`rts, h`jy otecrs `rctfppfjk ` mrc`n od `t lc`st $=,999 `j oujbc.Cxpcbt`tfojs sukkcst `jotecr strojk yc`r dor tec hct`ls prfbc, wefbe sct ` rcborg od

    $0,6=9.67 `j oujbc fj Rcptchmcr l`st yc`r. M`scg oj `j`lyst dorcb`sts, tefs yc`r boulgpotcjtf`lly mc tec h`rncts 0=te bojscbutfvc yc`r od k`fjs.Od teosc survcycg, ojly Ruhftohos Cggfc J`k`o, BYH Kroups ]oeft R`v`jt `jg MJT`fgy`s Me`rk`v` T`fgy` s`fg tecy gfgjt cxpcbt ` jcw rcborg prfbc sohctfhc tefs yc`r> `jgHr. J`k`o w`s `lojc fj dorcb`stfjk ` lowcr `vcr`kc prfbc bohp`rcg wfte =900.Rohc m`jns e`vc mccj bftcg rcfjfjk fj tecfr dorcb`sts dor tec hct`l ovcr tec p`st wccn,

    ml`hfjk ft oj tec h`rncts lowcr-te`j-cxpcbtcg m`sc dollowfjk rcbcjt prfbc wc`njcss,lfqufgfty bojbcrjs or cxpcbt`tfojs od ` strojkcr goll`r. Mut host `j`lysts, fj gofjk tefs, e`vcrc`ssurcg tecy rch`fj posftfvc oj kolg.Fj ` rcport to blfcjts, ERMB `j`lyst A`hcs Rtccl weo dorcb`st `j `vcr`kc od $0,539 `joujbc, wfte ` efke od $=,939 `j oujbc `jg ` low od $0,739 `j oujbc s`fg tec mullfoj

    h`rnct seoulg ultfh`tcly mcjcdft droh `jy jck`tfvc klom`l cbojohfb bojgftfojs. Ec e`glowcrcg efs dorcb`st my $0;3 `j oujbc.

    http://blogs.wsj.com/source/2012/01/09/goldhttp://blogs.wsj.com/source/2012/01/09/gold
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    Jojcteclcss, seoulg tec LMH@s dorcb`stcrs mc `bbur`tc fj prcgfbtfjk `j `vcr`kc `roujg$0,;44 `j oujbc dor tefs yc`r, ft woulg stfll mc ` 0=.2% rfsc fj v`luc oj l`st yc`r. @jg fj tecburrcjt cjvfrojhcjt, te`ts jotefjk to sjcczc `t.

    ettp1//ojlfjc.wsa.boh/`rtfblc/RM099907=793=6;9=97=3;3973;;0394=2=9055749=.ethl

    Kolg Yrfbcs Rcttlc LowcrMy H@WW G@VA@JS@]V 6, =90=, 21=0 Y.H. CW

    JC[ VO]NKolg slfppcg `s c`rly wc`njcss fj tec curo molstcrcg tec vfcw te`t Curopc'sgcmt brfsfs woulg bojtfjuc to provfgc ec`gwfjgs dor tec prcbfous hct`l.Wec host-`btfvcly tr`gcg kolg bojtr`bt, dor Dcmru`ry gclfvcry, dcll $5.;9, or 9.3%, to scttlc `t$0,495.09 ` troy oujbc oj tec Bohcx gfvfsfoj od tec Jcw Vorn Hcrb`jtflc Cxbe`jkc."Kolg bojtfjucs to m`ttlc goll`r strcjkte `jg mce`vc fj lfjc wfte rfsny `sscts," M`rbl`ysB`pft`l `j`lysts Runf Boopcr `jg Lyjjgcj Mr`jfk`j s`fg fj ` jotc.Hojg`y, tec FBC SR Goll`r fjgcx toubecg fts efkecst lcvcl sfjbc Rcptchmcr =909 `s bojbcrjovcr tec st`tc od Curopc's dfj`jbf`l systch pusecg fjvcstors fjto tec pcrbcfvcg s`dc-e`vcjburrcjby. @ strojkcr goll`r h`ncs goll`r-gcjohfj`tcg kolg `ppc`r horc cxpcjsfvc dor muycrsusfjk otecr burrcjbfcs.Fjvcstors e`vc d`vorcg tec goll`r `t tec cxpcjsc od prcbfous hct`ls fj rcbcjt hojtes `s tecstr`fj fj Curopc's dfj`jbf`l systch e`s gccpcjcg. Rohc e`vc d`vorcg tec dlcxfmflfty od b`se ojtec be`jbc te`t tec curo zojc's gcmt strukklcs boulg gcsbcjg fjto ` brfpplfjk brcgft brujbe.Mut `ec`g od ` scrfcs od curo-zojc hcctfjks, jcws bojdcrcjbcs `jg gcmt `ubtfojs, h`jyh`rncts sefdtcg fjto ` jcutr`l hogc Hojg`y `dtcrjooj. S.R. cquftfcs postcg slfket k`fjsrcbcjtly weflc tec curo rcmoujgcg droh fts c`rly lows.

    Ecgkc dujgs `jg otecr l`rkc hojcy h`j`kcrs tr`bncg my tec Bohhogfty Duturcs Wr`gfjkBohhfssfoj but tecfr mullfse mct oj Bohcx kolg duturcs `jg optfojs to tec lowcst lcvcl fj`lhost tercc yc`rs gurfjk tec wccn cjgcg A`j. 2, tec bohhfssfoj s`fg Drfg`y.Wec jct-lojk posftfoj eclg my sube tr`gcrs, or tec gfddcrcjbc mctwccj tec juhmcr od mcts ojefkecr prfbcs `jg mcts oj lowcr prfbcs, dcll 0% oj tec wccn, to tec lowcst sfjbc A`j. =9, =996,tec BDWB s`fg."Wec spcbul`tfvc h`rnct rch`fjs w`ry od kolg's prospcbts, wefbe hfket cxpl`fj tec d`flurc odkolg to sust`fj upw`rg hohcjtuh," s`fg H`rb Kroujg, `j `j`lyst wfte Rt`jg`rg M`jn, fj `jotc.Kolg duturcs rosc 2.=% l`st wccn, `s muycrs rcturjcg to tec m`ttcrcg h`rnct `dtcr fts 09%gcblfjc fj Gcbchmcr. Rohc fjvcstors vfcwcg tec pullm`bn `s ` muyfjk opportujfty, wfte

    h`jy `j`lysts cxpcbtfjk cbojohfb ujbcrt`fjty to moost tec `ppc`l od `ltcrj`tfvc `sscts sube`s kolg fj =90=.[rftc to H`tt G`y `t h`tt.g`yIgowaojcs.boh

    ettp1//wcmb`bec.kooklcuscrbojtcjt.boh/sc`rbe?q8b`bec1fh]_[_6yTrkA1ojlfjc.wsa.boh/`rtfblc/MW-BO-=9000=29-;934;3.ethl+ettp1//ojlfjc.wsa.boh/`rtfblc/MW-BO-=9000=29-;934;3.ethl&bg80&el8fg&bt8bljn&kl8fg&blfcjt8opcr`

    S.R. Kolg YrfbcsGCBCHMC] 29, =900, 00129 @.H. CW

    Jcw Vorn (Gow Aojcs)--Cjkcle`rg Borp's m`sc prfbc dor fjgustrf`l kolg mullfoj w`s$0,3;3.5= pcr troy oujbc, up $70.3; droh prcvfous. Ft's scllfjk prfbc dor kolg fj d`mrfb`tcg

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204257504577150623201884602.htmlmailto:[email protected]://webcache.googleuserc/http://online.wsj.com/article/BThttp://online.wsj.com/article/BThttp://webcache.googleuserc/mailto:[email protected]://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204257504577150623201884602.html
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    R2r` Rut`j ]`ao @lf

    7 od 47

    dorh w`s $0,467.90, up $77.46. E`jgy & E`rh`j's m`sc prfbc dor kolg w`s $0,3;9.99 pcrtroy oujbc, up $26.99. Wec d`mrfb`tcg dorh prfbc w`s $0,463.49, up $7=.0=.

    ettp1//wcmb`bec.kooklcuscrbojtcjt.boh/sc`rbe?q8b`bec1rdttj;dhy7PA1ojlfjc.wsa.boh/`rtfblc/RM099907=793=6;9=97;=9=973;;0=4597=62967527.ethl+Kolg,+Rflvcr+Yluhm+]cbcjt+L

    ows&bg80&el8fg&bt8bljn&kl8fg&blfcjt8opcr`

    Kolg, Rflvcr Yluhm ]cbcjt Lows

    My H@WW G@VGCBCHMC] =6, =900Mloohmcrk Jcws

    Wec prfbc od sflvcr, seowj ecrc fj m`rs `t tec oddfbcs od Kolg Mullfoj @ustr`lf`, dcll to ftslowcst pofjt sfjbc A`ju`ry.

    JC[ VO]N[orrfcs `mout tec gcmt brfsfs fj Curopc gr`kkcg sflvcr `jg kolg lowcr,scjgfjk tec m`ttcrcg h`rncts lfhpfjk fjto tec cjg od tec yc`r `jg efkelfketfjk fjvcstorgch`jg dor b`se.Yrcbfous hct`ls s`jn fj jc`r lobnstcp wfte tec curo, `s tec bohhoj burrcjby's gcblfjc to 07-hojte lows put Curopc's str`fjcg dfj`jbf`l systch fj dobus. Fjvcstors `rc bojbcrjcg te`t teccuro zojc's strcss boulg sct odd `jotecr klom`l dfj`jbf`l brfsfs `jg `rc w`tbefjk tec curo `s `k`ukc od tec sftu`tfoj. Rfjbc hfg-Gcbchmcr, sflvcr `jg kolg prfbcs e`vc hostly tr`bncg teccuro, rfsfjk wecj ft blfhmcg `jg d`llfjk wecj ft slfg.Oj [cgjcsg`y, sflvcr scttlcg `t fts lowcst lcvcls sfjbc A`ju`ry, `jg kolg `t ` dfvc-hojte low.Rflvcr st`rtcg =900 `t fts efkecst prfbc sfjbc tec Eujt Mrotecrs trfcg to borjcr tec h`rnct 29yc`rs `ko, `jg tec hct`l scchcg pofscg to toube rcborg efkes `movc $39 `j oujbc `sfjvcstors souket ` bec`p `ltcrj`tfvc to kolg.

    Wec cupeorf` cjgcg fj ` br`se te`t toon prfbcs gowj my ` tefrg fj l`tc @prfl `jg c`rly H`y.Wec h`rnct strukklcg to dfjg fts dootfjk fj tec hojtes te`t dollowcg, `s fjvcstors rc`sscsscgtec s`dcty od prcbfous hct`ls.Rflvcr `jg kolg `rc v`lucg dor tecfr pcrbcfvcg `mflfty to h`fjt`fj v`luc gurfjk cbojohfbturhofl, mut te`t vfcw mronc gowj tefs yc`r `s worrfcs `mout tec dfj`jbf`l ec`lte od tec curozojc houjtcg.M`jns `jg otecr fjvcstors wcrc tryfjk to secg rfsn my scllfjk tecfr sflvcr eolgfjks, s`fg Dr`jnHbKecc, ec`g prcbfous hct`ls gc`lcr wfte Fjtckr`tcg Mroncr`kc Rcrvfbcs. "Wefs fs `ll m`scgoj tec curo-zojc gcm`blc," ec s`fg.Rflvcr dor Gcbchmcr gclfvcry dcll $0.393, or 3.=%, to scttlc `t $=;.06= ` troy oujbc oj tecBohcx gfvfsfoj od tec Jcw Vorn Hcrb`jtflc Cxbe`jkc. Duturcs `rc gowj 0=% dor =900.

    Kolg dor Gcbchmcr gclfvcry dcll $20.29, or =%, to $0,34=.69 ` troy oujbc, t`nfjk fts yc`r-to-g`tc k`fj to 09%. Duturcs eft rcborg fjtr`g`y efkes `movc $0,699 fj Rcptchmcr.Wec curo's d`ll `jg tec rc`btfoj fj prcbfous hct`ls hfrrorcg ` sfhfl`r sct od gcblfjcs `dtcr tecburrcjby groppcg mclow $0.29 oj Gcb. 07. Wec mcjbeh`rn kolg duturcs bojtr`bt oj te`t g`yslfg mclow fts =99-g`y hovfjk `vcr`kc dor tec dfrst tfhc fj horc te`j two yc`rs, ` mc`rfsesfkj`l dor h`rnct p`rtfbfp`jts weo pl`bc mcts m`scg oj p`ttcrjs fj h`rnct `btfvfty.Oj [cgjcsg`y, sflvcr rcbcfvcg `j `ggftfoj`l gr`k droh ` wc`n krowte outloon dor tec curozojc `jg sfkjs od ` slowgowj fj top hct`ls bojsuhcr Befj`. Fjgustrf`l gch`jg `bboujts dor`mout e`ld od sflvcr bojsuhptfoj, `jg tec hct`l fs uscg fj cvcrytefjk droh sol`r p`jcls totclcvfsfojs `jg peotokr`pey. "F goj't scc hube sbopc dor `j fjbrc`sc fj ^fjgustrf`lX sflvcrgch`jg" fj =90=, s`fg Crfb` ]`jjcst`g, `j `j`lyst wfte bohhogftfcs bojsult`jby BYH

    Kroup.

    http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:rfttn7fmy4QJ:online.wsj.com/articlehttp://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:rfttn7fmy4QJ:online.wsj.com/article
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    Rtugyfjk tec fssucs od kolg prfbc hovchcjts

    3 od 47

    Wec scllodd gfgj't sp`rc otecr prcbfous hct`ls `lrc`gy oj cgkc `hfg tec se`ny krowte outloon.Yl`tfjuh dcll to tec lowcst lcvcls sfjbc Jovchmcr =996, wfte tec A`ju`ry-gclfvcry bojtr`btscttlfjk gowj 2.=% `t $0,25;.;9 ` troy oujbc. Y`ll`gfuh s`jn =.6% to $47;.03 `j oujbc.Fj otecr bohhogfty jcws1OFL1 Jyhcx brugc duturcs rctrc`tcg mclow $099 ` m`rrcl `s stobn h`rncts gcblfjcg, mut tec

    prospcbt od `ggftfoj`l s`jbtfojs oj Fr`j ncpt ` dloor ujgcr prfbcs.Lfket, swcct brugc dor Dcmru`ry gclfvcry scttlcg gowj $0.65, or =%, to $66.24 ` m`rrcl. Mrcjtbrugc oj tec FBC duturcs cxbe`jkc lost $0.;0, or 0.4%, to scttlc `t $09;.34 ` m`rrcl.[cgjcsg`y's rctrc`t fj Jyhcx brugc h`rncg tec bojtr`bt's dfrst gcblfjc fj sfx scssfojs `jgw`s duclcg l`rkcly my ` scllodd fj tec cquftfcs h`rnct.

    G`j Rtruhpd `jg Lcslfc Aoscpes bojtrfmutcg to tefs `rtfblc.[rftc to H`tt G`y `t h`tt.g`yIgowaojcs.boh

    ettp1//wcmb`bec.kooklcuscrbojtcjt.boh/sc`rbe?q8b`bec1_]_2MjrafunA1ojlfjc.wsa.boh/`rtfblc/MW-BO-=9000==3-;92634.ethl+YMOB+Oddfbf`l1+Befj`+Reoulg+@gaust+DU+Yortdolfo,+Muy+Kolg+@sscts+[

    ecj+Yrfbc+Grops&bg80&el8fg&bt8bljn&kl8fg&blfcjt8opcr`

    YMOB Oddfbf`l1 Befj` Reoulg @gaust DU Yortdolfo, Muy Kolg @sscts [ecj Yrfbc Grops

    GCBCHMC] =3, =900, 610; Y.H. CW

    MCFAFJK (Gow Aojcs)--Befj` seoulg `gaust fts dorcfkj-cxbe`jkc portdolfo `jg muy horckolg `sscts wecj tec prfbc od tec hct`l grops, Ycoplc's M`jn od Befj` ]csc`rbe Murc`uGfrcbtor Qe`jk Af`jeu` s`fg fj rch`rns pumlfsecg oj Hojg`y.Wec Befjcsc kovcrjhcjt seoulg mc w`ry od tec rfsn od fjdl`tfoj`ry prcssurcs pfbnfjk up, `jgseoulg muy kolg `s ` ecgkc `k`fjst te`t possfmflfty, Qe`jk s`fg fj tec bcjtr`l m`jn-ruj

    Dfj`jbf`l Jcws.Befj` `lrc`gy eolgs ` sh`ll portfoj od fts SR$2.= trfllfoj od dorcfkj rcscrvcs fj kolg.Qe`jk gfg jot kfvc `jy fjgfb`tfoj od we`t proportfoj od Befj`'s dorcfkj-cxbe`jkc eolgfjksseoulg mc eclg fj kolg fj duturc.

    Jcwsp`pcr wcmsftc1 www.dfj`jbf`ljcws.boh.bj-Clfot K`o bojtrfmutcg to tefs `rtfblc, Gow Aojcs Jcwswfrcs> (54 09) 5799-;;93>clfot.k`oIgowaojcs.boh

    ettp1//ojlfjc.wsa.boh/`rtfblc/RM099907=793=6;9=979357973;;000067=60454069.ethl

    Fjgf` Rlows ]use dor Kolg

    ]upcc's D`ll Efts [orlg's Mfkkcst Bojsuhcr od Kolg, `jg Yossfmly Klom`l YrfbcsMy GCMFY]@R@G J@V@N `jg W@WV@J@ RESHRNVGCBCHMC] =7, =900

    Fjgf` efstorfb`lly e`s mccj tec worlg's mfkkcst bojsuhcr od kolg, hube od ft b`st fjto acwclry.HSHM@F]`vf Be`turvcgf w`s loonfjk dorw`rg to kfvfjk efs wfdc ` kolg rfjk `s `j`jjfvcrs`ry prcscjt tefs A`ju`ry.Mut wfte kolg prfbcs stummorjly efke fj rupcc tcrhs, tec 27-yc`r-olg m`jn h`j`kcr s`ys ece`s be`jkcg efs hfjg1 Ec jow pl`js to kfvc ecr ` homflc peojc.Ft fs ` tcllfjk beofbc.H`jy Fjgf`js `rc cftecr sb`lfjk m`bn or clfhfj`tfjk tecfr kolg purbe`scs outrfket. Wec grop-odd fj gch`jg fs cxposfjk br`bns fj we`t kolg fjvcstors e`vc tr`gftfoj`lly pcrbcfvcg `s `solfg support dor klom`l prfbcs.

    mailto:[email protected]://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:_R_3BnrjiukJ:online.wsj.com/articlemailto:[email protected]://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204058404577111194291686190.htmlhttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204058404577111194291686190.htmlmailto:[email protected]://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:_R_3BnrjiukJ:online.wsj.com/articlemailto:[email protected]
  • 8/3/2019 Studying the Issues of Gold Price Movements 1

    6/64

    R2r` Rut`j ]`ao @lf

    4 od 47

    [fte h`jy od fts rclfkfous `jg bultur`l tr`gftfojs stccpcg fj tec prcbfous hct`l, Fjgf`efstorfb`lly e`s mccj tec worlg's mfkkcst bojsuhcr od kolg, hube od ft b`st fjto acwclry. Kolg

    pl`ys ` p`rtfbul`rly fhport`jt rolc fj wcggfjk bcrchojfcs, `jg peysfb`l gch`jg dor kolgusu`lly rfscs sfkjfdfb`jtly fj tec d`ll `jg wfjtcr, wefbe `rc bojsfgcrcg `uspfbfous tfhcs dorkcttfjk h`rrfcg.

    Wefs yc`r, eowcvcr, tec wcggfjk sc`soj govct`flcg wfte ` r`pfg gcprcbf`tfoj od tec rupcc`k`fjst tec goll`r `s fjvcstors dlcg Fjgf` `hfg afttcrs `mout tec mro`gcr cbojohy.Fjgf`'s fhports od kolg dcll to =9 hctrfb tojs fj Jovchmcr, gowj `s hube `s ;3% droh ` yc`rc`rlfcr, `bborgfjk to cstfh`tcs droh tec Mohm`y Mullfoj @ssobf`tfoj, `j fjgustry kroup dortec boujtry's kolg gc`lcrs.H`jy fjvcstors `jg `j`lysts mclfcvc te`t fs ` ncy rc`soj wey kolg prfbcs e`vcj't moujbcg

    m`bn cvcj teouke bojbcrjs `mout Curopc's gcmt lo`g `jg tec vf`mflfty od curo pcrsfst.Goll`r-gcjohfj`tcg kolg duturcs fj Jcw Vorn pc`ncg `t $0,555.;9 `j oujbc fj c`rly @ukust`jg e`vc sfjbc gcblfjcg my 03%. Wec prfbc Fjgf`js p`fg dor kolg, fj rupccs, bojtfjucg to rfsc

    mcyojg @ukust, efttfjk ` rcborg =6,=;9 rupccs ($335.36) pcr 09 kr`hs oj Jov. 04 `s tecFjgf`j burrcjby wc`ncjcg `k`fjst tec goll`r.

    Kolg duturcs oj Drfg`y c`scg 9.2% to $0,497.;9 ` troy oujbc fj Jcw Vorn, weflc fj Fjgf` tecprfbc od peysfb`l kolg fs up slfketly `t =;,;09 rupccs pcr 09 kr`hs.Fj rcbcjt yc`rs, tec h`rnct dor peysfb`l kolg e`s mccj ovcrlooncg `s fjvcstors dobuscg oj ftskrowfjk popul`rfty `s ` "s`dc-e`vcj" `ssct te`t rct`fjs v`luc gurfjk brfscs `jg oj mfk

    posftfojs t`ncj my ecgkc-dujg tft`js lfnc Aoej Y`ulsoj terouke cxbe`jkc-tr`gcg dujgs.Mut tec rctrcjbehcjt fj Fjgf` seows te`t trcjgs fj peysfb`l gch`jg b`j stfll cxcrt sfkjfdfb`jtfjdlucjbc oj prfbcs. "Vou e`vc to nccp dobus oj Fjgf` `t `ll tfhcs," s`fg Jclsoj R`fcrs, befcdfjvcsthcjt oddfbcr `t Jcw Vorn-m`scg ecgkc dujg @lpe`mct H`j`kchcjt LLB, wefbe e`s`mout $499 hfllfoj ujgcr h`j`kchcjt.Fd tec rupcc bojtfjucs to wc`ncj tokctecr wfte Fjgf`'s cbojohy, "ft wfll eurt tec ^prfbcX dlooroj kolg," Hr. R`fcrs s`fg.]oukely ` tefrg od klom`l gch`jg dor kolg fj tec dorh od acwclry, or 476.6 hctrfb tojs, b`hcdroh Fjgf` fj tec yc`r cjgcg Rcpt. 29, `bborgfjk to tec [orlg Kolg Boujbfl.Orj`tc jcbnl`bcs, `rhlcts, c`rrfjks, m`jklcs, kolg be`fjs `jg dfjkcr rfjks `rc `j csscjtf`l p`rtod ` Efjgu mrfgc's troussc`u `jg `rc usu`lly mouket my ecr p`rcjts.Rer`gge` Nuln`rjf w`s rcbcjtly tryfjk oj acwclry wfte ecr g`uketcr `t ` seop fj Huhm`f'sQ`vcrf M`z`r kolg eum. "[c wcrc c`rlfcr pl`jjfjk to kfvc `mout 099 kr`hs od kolg acwclry toecr, mut tec efke prfbc e`s dorbcg us to lfhft ft to ;9 to 59 kr`hs," Hs. Nuln`rjf s`fg.T`su @be`ry`, ` gfrcbtor `t Y`rncr Mullfoj, m`scg fj tec wcstcrj bfty od @ehcg`m`g, s`fggch`jg w`s sl`bn. Ec s`fg s`lcs wcrc rujjfjk `t =9% od l`st yc`r's lcvcls."Fd kolg gch`jg fs lfnc tefs jow, F seuggcr to tefjn we`t ft wfll mc fj A`ju`ry" `dtcr tec cjg od

    tec wcggfjk sc`soj, wefbe l`sts ujtfl tec hfgglc od tec hojte, Hr. @be`ry` s`fg.Rohc `j`lysts, eowcvcr, `rkuc te`t tec grop fj gch`jg fs tchpor`ry, `jg rcprcscjts Fjgf`jbojsuhcrs postpojfjk kolg purbe`scs.Muycrs fj Fjgf` "`rc `pp`rcjtly `jtfbfp`tfjk ` l`rkcr gcblfjc fj prfbcs `jg `rc rcportcglyeolgfjk out dor sube `j cvcjtu`lfty," Nftbo Hct`ls Fjb. Jorte @hcrfb`'s scjfor hct`ls `j`lystAoj J`glcr s`fg fj ` jotc to blfcjts.We`t fs tec str`tcky Ruhftr` A`fj optcg dor, s`yfjk sec woulg ojly muy p`rt od ecr g`uketcr'swcggfjk-acwclry rcqufrchcjt jow `jg w`ft dor ` durtecr gcblfjc fj prfbcs to muy tec rcst.Fjgf`j acwclcrs `rc tryfjk to `ttr`bt bustohcrs my sefdtfjk to lfketwcfket acwclry droh ec`vykolg orj`hcjts. Rohc `lso `rc tryfjk to woo bustohcrs wfte oddcrs sube `s `j optfoj to lobnfj tec lowcst prfbc mctwccj tec moonfjk g`y `jg tec gclfvcry g`tc.

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    Rtugyfjk tec fssucs od kolg prfbc hovchcjts

    ; od 47

    G`h`j Yr`n`se, ` gfrcbtor dor HJB Mullfoj, ` tr`gfjk dfrh m`scg fj tec soutecrj bfty odBecjj`f, s`fg ec cxpcbts to scc horc gch`jg droh rct`fl bustohcrs wecj prfbcs d`ll to=4,999-=;,999 rupccs pcr 09 kr`hs.

    Mfh`j Hunecraf bojtrfmutcg to tefs `rtfblc.[rftc to Gcmfpr`s`g J`y`n `t gcmf.j`y`nIgowaojcs.boh `jg W`ty`j` Reuhsny `t

    t`ty`j`.seuhsnyIgowaojcs.bohBorrcbtfojs & @hplfdfb`tfojsFjgf`'s fhports od kolg dcll to =9 hctrfb tojs fj Jovchmcr, `bborgfjk to cstfh`tcs droh tecMohm`y Mullfoj @ssobf`tfoj. @j c`rlfcr vcrsfoj od tefs `rtfblc fjborrcbtly s`fg tec fhportsdcll to =9 hfllfoj hctrfb tojs.

    ettp1//wcmb`bec.kooklcuscrbojtcjt.boh/sc`rbe?q8b`[email protected]/`rtfblc/MW-BO-=9000==2-;9;793.ethl+ettp1//ojlfjc.wsa.boh/`rtfblc/MW-BO-=9000==2-;9;793.ethl&bg80&el8fg&bt8bljn&kl8fg&blfcjt8opcr`

    S.R. Kolg Yrfbcs

    GCBCHMC] =2, =900, 00120 @.H. CW

    Jcw Vorn (Gow Aojcs)--Cjkcle`rg Borp's m`sc prfbc dor fjgustrf`l kolg mullfoj w`s$0,409.25 pcr troy oujbc, up $9.39 droh prcvfous. Ft's scllfjk prfbc dor kolg fj d`mrfb`tcgdorh w`s $0,;20.04, up $9.37. E`jgy & E`rh`j's m`sc prfbc dor kolg w`s $0,493.99 pcr troyoujbc, gowj $0.39. Wec d`mrfb`tcg dorh prfbc w`s $0,;22.79, gowj $0.4=.

    ettp1//wcmb`bec.kooklcuscrbojtcjt.boh/sc`rbe?q8b`bec1FuUHNutEw49A1ojlfjc.wsa.boh/`rtfblc/RM099907=793=6;9=975;69973;;09;5;2;=093306=.ethl+Kolg,+Rflvcr+@ppc`r+Rct+to+Refjc+fj+'0=&bg80&el8fg&bt8bljn&kl8fg&blfcjt8opcr`

    Kolg, Rflvcr @ppc`r Rct to Refjc fj '0=

    My ]EF@JJOJ EOVLCGCBCHMC] 06, =900, 212; Y.H. CW

    Ft's mccj ` sohcwe`t turmulcjt yc`r dor prcbfous hct`ls fj =900, mut `j`lysts `rc prcgfbtfjkte`t kolg `jg sflvcr prfbcs wfll h`nc solfg k`fjs fj =90= `s mote hovc m`bn fjto d`vor wftefjvcstors `s `ltcrj`tfvc storcs od v`luc.Gcspftc l`st wccn's w`seout fj tec prcbfous-hct`ls h`rnct, host fjgustry p`rtfbfp`jts scchbcrt`fj te`t kolg prfbcs wfll rfsc dor ` rcborg 00te bojscbutfvc yc`r fj =90=. Kolg duturcs e`vck`fjcg 0=% tefs yc`r oj tec Bohcx gfvfsfoj od tec Jcw Vorn Hcrb`jtflc Cxbe`jkc. Rflvcr,

    wefbe fs gowj 4.5% fj =900, fs `lso cxpcbtcg rck`fj fts dootfjk `s ` bec`pcr `ltcrj`tfvc tokolg.Losscs fj wfgcr h`rncts fj rcbcjt hojtes e`vc cjbour`kcg fjvcstors to scll rfsn `sscts,fjblugfjk kolg, gcspftc tec hct`l's rcput`tfoj `s `j `ltcrj`tfvc storc od v`luc wecj tfhcs `rctouke. Kolg secg horc te`j 5% od fts v`luc l`st Hojg`y terouke [cgjcsg`y, hovfjk fjt`jgch wfte stobns, boppcr `jg ofl, `s fjvcstors souket to h`fjt`fj tecfr b`se busefojs `jgbovcr h`rkfj bohhfthcjts. Rflvcr, wefbe fs horc tefjly tr`gcg te`j kolg `jg tecrcdorc tcjgsto rc`bt horc vfolcjtly to wfgcr h`rnct sefdts, lost horc te`j 09%.Mut sohc h`rnct p`rtfbfp`jts, sube `s S.R. fjvcsthcjt m`jn Hork`j Rt`jlcy, jow bftc kolg`s tecfr top bohhogfty pl`y dor =90=, guc to tec ujbcrt`fj h`brocbojohfb cjvfrojhcjt.H`jy `j`lysts prcgfbt tec huggfcg klom`l cbojohfb outloon wfll moost kolg prfbcs to `ll-tfhcefkes jcxt yc`r, wfte ` mrc`n `movc $=,999 `j oujbc dor tec dfrst tfhc wfgcly cxpcbtcg.Gch`jg dor s`dc `sscts wfll rc-chcrkc oj bojbcrjs ovcr tec ec`lte od tec curo-zojc `jg S.R.

    mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:bAZDjkyDLFIJ:online.wsj.com/artihttp://online.wsj.com/article/BThttp://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:IuXMKutHw60J:online.wsj.com/artihttp://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:IuXMKutHw60J:online.wsj.com/artihttp://online.wsj.com/article/BThttp://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:bAZDjkyDLFIJ:online.wsj.com/artimailto:[email protected]:[email protected]
  • 8/3/2019 Studying the Issues of Gold Price Movements 1

    8/64

    R2r` Rut`j ]`ao @lf

    5 od 47

    cbojohfcs, tecy prcgfbt, weflc terc`ts to h`aor burrcjbfcs lfnc tec goll`r `jg tec curo, drohpotcjtf`l jcw qu`jtft`tfvc-c`sfjk hc`surcs `jg tec curo-zojc gcmt brfsfs, wfll `lso pusefjvcstors tow`rg kolg.Wec prospcbt od `jotecr yc`r od low or jck`tfvc rc`l fjtcrcst r`tcs fj gcvclopcg boujtrfcs,

    p`rtfbul`rly tec S.R., seoulg mc ` gr`w dor jcw hojcy fj kolg, `s e`s mccj tec b`sc tefs yc`r.

    Low r`tcs rcgubc tec opportujfty bost od eolgfjk kolg, `j `ssct te`t provfgcs jo yfclg.@ juhmcr od d`btors seoulg `lso support sflvcr fj =90=."Fjvcstors ^`rc cxpcbtcg toX r`fsc tecfr cxposurc to sflvcr guc to fjbrc`scg us`kc fj jcw`pplfb`tfojs, efkecr oddt`nc droh chcrkfjk h`rncts `jg bojtfjucg bojbcrjs ovcr tec st`mflftyod tec klom`l h`bro cbojohy," s`fg M`jn od @hcrfb` Hcrrfll Lyjbe hct`ls `j`lyst Hfbe`cl[fghcr.Cvcj wfte kolg's rcbcjt gfddfbultfcs, ft e`s pcrdorhcg mcttcr te`j sohc otecr bohhogftfcs tefsyc`r. Kolg's 0=% rfsc bohp`rcs wfte ` 6.7% rfsc fj Mrcjt brugc-ofl duturcs `jg ` =4% gcblfjcfj Bohcx boppcrHork`j Rt`jlcy `j`lyst Eusscfj @llfgfj` fs jow dorcb`stfjk `j `vcr`kc od $=,=99 ` troyoujbc dor kolg jcxt yc`r, up droh `j cstfh`tcg `vcr`kc od $0,40= tefs yc`r `jg droh

    Hojg`y's scttlc `t $0,367.79 `j oujbc oj Bohcx.M`jn od @hcrfb` Hcrrfll Lyjbe dorcb`sts `j `vcr`kc od $0,539 `j oujbc dor =90=, `dtcr

    prcgfbtfjk $0,3;2 `j oujbc tefs yc`r. Rtfll, ft s`fg ft cxpcbts prfbcs to r`lly potcjtf`lly `s efke`s $=,399 `s bcjtr`l m`jns h`fjt`fj loosc hojct`ry polfbfcs. Fj sflvcr, ft dorcb`sts `j `vcr`kc

    prfbc od $27.92 `j oujbc jcxt yc`r, gowj droh fts dorcb`st od $23.74 fj =900 mut up drohHojg`y's scttlc `t $=5.5== oj Bohcx.Wo mc surc, tecrc `rc rfsns. @lcb Lctbedfclg, befcd fjvcsthcjt oddfbcr dor wc`lte h`j`kchcjt`t ERMB Klom`l @ssct H`j`kchcjt SN, s`fg tec rcbcjt rout fj tec kolg h`rnct fllustr`tcste`t mullfoj fsj't jcbcss`rfly ` gcdcjsc fj tfhcs od h`rnct turhofl.Rtfll, weflc durtecr mouts od ec`vy scllfjk b`j't mc rulcg outp`rtfbul`rly fj tfhcs od bojbcrjovcr b`se lfqufgftyfd h`brocbojohfb ujbcrt`fjty bojtfjucs to bloug tec outloon dorfjvcstors, jcw efkes dor kolg `rc ujlfncly to mc d`r mcefjg. @jg cvcj teouke tec ro`g torcborg efkes dor sflvcr h`y mc ` lfttlc horc gfddfbult, kolg's sfstcr fs `lso lfncly to rck`fj sohcod fts sefjc fj =90=.[rftc to ]ef`jjoj Eoylc `t ref`jjoj.eoylcIgowaojcs.boh

    ettp1//mloks.wsa.boh/sourbc/=900/0=/03/kolgs -ups-`jg-gowjs/

    Kolgs Sps `jg Gowjs

    My Dr`jbcsb` Drcch`jMloohmcrk

    Gcbchmcr 03, =900, =195 YH KHW

    Fts e`jgm`ks `t g`wj fj tec kolg h`rnct tefs wccn.Hube to tec surprfsc `jg/or gfsh`y od h`jy, kolg e`s t`ncj ` gr`h`tfb gfvc, mrc`nfjk mclow$0,499 ` troy oujbc dor tec dfrst tfhc fj `lhost tercc hojtes `s gctcrfor`tfjk d`fte fj tecduturc od tec curo-zojc scjt tec curo tuhmlfjk, gr`kkfjk goll`r-gcjohfj`tcg `sscts sube `skolg gowj fj fts w`nc. @t tec s`hc tfhc, bojsbfous b`se kcjcr`tfoj e`s bohmfjcg wftew`vcs od tcbejfb`lly-grfvcj scllfjk to csb`l`tc losscs fj kolg, pullfjk scvcr`l ncy lcvcls odsupport out droh ujgcrjc`te ft fj tec probcss.@lteouke `j`lysts `jg tr`gcrs e`g bojsfstcjtly w`rjcg od fjbrc`scg vol`tflfty `hfg h`bro

    afttcrs `jg fllfqufg, cjg-od-yc`r tr`gfjk bojgftfojs, dcw e`g `jtfbfp`tcg tec gcpte od kolgs

    slfgc, wefbe e`s sccj tec ycllow hct`l secg ovcr 09% od fts v`luc fj aust sfx tr`gfjk scssfojs.

    mailto:[email protected]://blogs.wsj.com/source/2011/12/15/goldshttp://blogs.wsj.com/source/2011/12/15/goldsmailto:[email protected]
  • 8/3/2019 Studying the Issues of Gold Price Movements 1

    9/64

    Rtugyfjk tec fssucs od kolg prfbc hovchcjts

    6 od 47

    Dor teosc te`t bl`fh to e`vc sccj ft bohfjk, tec brfcs od, F tolg you so, e`vc mckuj fjc`rjcst.

    Jo ojc e`s mccj horc outsponcj fj tefs rck`rgor trfkkcrcg sube t`ln-m`bn droh tech`rnct`s fjgcpcjgcjt h`rncts bohhcjt`tor `jg dorhcr kolg mull Gcjjfs K`rth`j, weodfrst jotcg worrfsohc g`h`kc to kolg prfbcs fj efs g`fly K`rth`j Lcttcr oj Gcbchmcr 4,

    dollowfjk ` grop fj mote goll`r- `jg curo-gcjohfj`tcg kolg tec prcvfous scssfoj.Hr. K`rth`js dfrh e`g mccj eolgfjk ` lojk posftfoj fj curo-gcjohfj`tcg kolg dor sohctfhc, `jg ec sooj sw`ppcg ojc qu`rtcr od efs kolg eolgfjks dor cquftfcs. Hr. K`rth`jbojtfjucg rcgubfjk efs cxposurc to tec hct`l fj tec g`ys dollowfjk, cvcjtu`lly rchovfjk efskolg posftfoj cjtfrcly c`rly tefs wccn. Hr. K`rth`j e`g `lso mccj eolgfjk kolg gcjohfj`tcgfj ycj.[eflc Hr. K`rth`js gcbfsfoj to rcgubc efs kolg cxposurc e`s gr`wj brftfbfsh od v`ryfjkgckrccs my otecr h`rnct p`rtfbfp`jts, ft w`s efs probl`h`tfoj Wucsg`y te`t kolg fs cjtcrfjk `rc`l mc`r h`rnct te`t scchs to e`vc put tec h`rnct fjto ` rc`l spfj.[c e`vc tec mckfjjfjks od ` rc`l mc`r h`rnct, `jg tec gc`te od ` mull, rc`g Hr. K`rth`jsg`fly jotc.

    @j`lysts `jg tr`gcrs e`vc mccj d`frly ujfdorh fj tecfr vfcw te`t kolg, gcspftc fts ups `jggowjs tefs yc`r, stfll e`s lcks to fts mull-ruj durtecr gowj tec lfjc. Kolg fs, `dtcr `ll, `tr`gftfoj`l ecgkc `k`fjst wfgcr h`rnct fjscburfty, `jg tec wfgcr h`rnct fs, my `jymogysst`jg`rgs, fjscburc.[eflc Hr. K`rth`j bftcs terc`ts od peysfb`l vfolcjbc `hojk tec outmursts `k`fjst efs sefdttow`rg kolg, ` horc hc`surcg b`sc dor strojk kolg prfbcs e`s mccj prcv`flfjk `hojk m`jns`jg tr`gfjk eouscs fj rcbcjt g`ys.Wec rcsflfcjbc od fjvcstor dlows fjto kolg cxbe`jkc-tr`gcg dujgs `jg sfkjs od rcvfvfjkgch`jg dor kolg fj chcrkfjk h`rncts`s efkelfketcg my strojk kolg fhports fjto Eojk Nojkfj Obtomcr `jg ` pfbn-up fj peysfb`l gch`jg dor kolg fj Fjgf` fj rcbcjt g`ys`rc mote d`btorste`t seoulg eclp spur kolg prfbcs efkecr jcxt yc`r, s`fg ERMB `j`lyst A`hcs Rtccl fj ` rcbcjtjotc.Hr. Rtccl rcbnojs `jyojc weo b`lls `j cjg to tec kolg mull h`rnct fs prctty hube odd tecfrrobncrs1Ft fs jot lokfb`l, fj our vfcw, to b`ll `j cjg to tec mull h`rnct weflc prospcbts dor chcrkfjkh`rnct gch`jg rch`fj posftfvc `jg CWD eolgfjks rch`fj dfrh. 9Rwfss-m`jn SMR `lso bojtfjucs to dorcb`st `j `vcr`kc =90= kolg prfbc od $=,939/oz, m`scg ojcxpcbt`tfojs od bojtfjucg sovcrcfkj strcss, ` Curopc`j rcbcssfoj `jg durtecr bcjtr`l m`jn

    muyfjk jcxt yc`r.Rtfll, host `krcc te`t tec p`tewecrcvcr ft lc`gswfll mc muhpy.[fte lfqufgfty gryfjk up, ^bohhogftyX vol`tflfty boulg cvcj auhp efkecr tow`rgs yc`r-cjg

    weflc gowjsfgc rfsns rch`fj, s`fg Bohhcrzm`jn.

    ettp1//nrukh`j.mloks.jytfhcs.boh/=900/0=/07/spc`nfjk -od-pcoplc-weosc-hogcls-e`vc-d`flcg/

    Rpc`nfjk od Ycoplc [eosc Hogcls E`vc D`flcg

    Y`ul Nrukh`jGcbchmcr 07, =900, =10; ph

    Wec l`tcst polls seow Jcwt slfppfjk fj Fow` mut jot to tec mcjcdft od Hftt ]ohjcy.Fjstc`g, ft jow scchs possfmlc te`t ]oj Y`ul wfll wfj tec b`ubuscs.

    http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/12/14/speakinghttp://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/12/14/speaking
  • 8/3/2019 Studying the Issues of Gold Price Movements 1

    10/64

    R2r` Rut`j ]`ao @lf

    09 od 47

    Jow, Y`ul fs ujfquc `hojk tec KOY bojtcjgcrs, or dor te`t h`ttcr `hojk polftfbf`js fjkcjcr`l, fj h`nfjk hojct`ry polfby efs sfkj`turc fssuc. Ro fts worte jotfjk te`t ec fs `hojkteosc weo e`vc mccj wrojk `mout cvcrytefjk fj tefs sluhp.Ecrcs ` s`hplc droh c`rlfcr tefs yc`r1 ]oj Y`ul1 Kolg, Bohhogfty Yrfbcs Mfk CvcjtRfkj`lfjk Cbojohfb Boll`psc. Oe, `jg dor duj1 Sjgcrst`jgfjk [ey ]oj Y`ul Njows Horc

    @mout Fjdl`tfoj We`j Gocs Y`ul Nrukh`j.@ech1

    Wec scbojg od teosc `rtfblcs, my tec w`y, prcgfbts ` surkc fj bojsuhcr prfbcs fj tec scbojg

    e`ld od =900. Jot `bborgfjk to cftecr tec BYF or, dor teosc weo `rc bojvfjbcg te`t teckovcrjhcjt fs lyfjk, mfllfoj prfbc fjgcx, mote od wefbe seow prfbcs lcvclfjk odd fj tec scbojge`ld. Mut ecy, tecrc `rc stfll 0; g`ys lcdt!Fh surc te`t tec Y`ulfst`s wfll dfjg ` w`y to bl`fh te`t tecfr h`j e`s mccj rfket `moutcvcrytefjk, cvcj teouke efs prcgfbtfojs e`vc mccj `ll wrojk. Mut ec rc`lly e`s muflt efs

    polftfb`l b`rccr `roujg tec jotfoj te`t ecs `j cxpcrt fj ` sumacbt `mout wefbe ec `btu`llyujgcrst`jgs jotefjk.

    ettp1//mloks.wsa.boh/sourbc/=900/0=/0=/kolg -loscs-fts-sefjc/

    Kolg Loscs Fts Refjc

    My Dr`jbcsb` Drcch`j `jg ]ef`jjoj EoylcMloohmcrkGcbchmcr 0=, =900, 09134 @H KHW

    Kolg e`s t`ncj `jotecr gr`h`tfb tuhmlc, slfgfjk mclow tec ncy $0,;99 ` troy oujbc lcvcl`hfg ` toxfb hfx od tcbejfb`l scllfjk, rfsn `vcrsfoj `jg ` wc`ncr curo. Fjgccg, bohhogftfcsovcr`ll e`vc t`ncj ` m`ttcrfjk.@t kolgs lowcst pofjt, tec ycllow hct`l w`s l`jkufsefjk `t $0,4;4.34/oz, fts lowcst lcvcl fjtwo-`jg-`-e`ld wccns. Ft w`s gowj 7% oj tec st`rt od tec prcvfous wccn `jg =% lowcr oj tecg`y.[eflc fjvcstors h`rnct-wfgc b`st ` sncptfb`l cyc ovcr tec drufts od l`st wccns Curopc`j

    Sjfoj suhhft, kolg rcbcfvcg `j cxtr` seovc to tec gowjsfgc my tcbejfb`l-scllfjk `roujg

    http://blogs.wsj.com/source/2011/12/12/goldhttp://blogs.wsj.com/source/2011/12/12/gold
  • 8/3/2019 Studying the Issues of Gold Price Movements 1

    11/64

    Rtugyfjk tec fssucs od kolg prfbc hovchcjts

    00 od 47

    $0,;99/oz, `s ` ml`jnct od `utoh`tcg scllfjk-orgcrs wcrc trfkkcrcg `roujg tec ncy supportlcvcl, `bborgfjk to tr`gcrs.Wec ycllow hct`l jow sfts prcb`rfously `movc `jotecr m`jg od support `t $0,459/oz to$0,449/oz, h`nfjk ft vuljcr`mlc to `jotecr w`vc od scllfjk, seoulg tefs lcvcl mc mroncj.Kolg boulg mc fj dor ` krfllfjk, s`fg ` Lojgoj-m`scg tr`gcr. Wec h`rnct fs kofjk to loon `s

    mc`rfse gowj ecrc `s ft w`s mullfse oj fts w`y up terouke $0,439/oz.Lfqufgfty fs `lso qufbnly tefjjfjk `ec`g od tec yc`r-cjgwefbe tcjgs to h`nc prfbchovchcjts `ll tec horc vol`tflc, `s tecrc `rc dcwcr muycrs lcdt to pfbn up sboop up tec hct`lwecj otecrs gcbfgc to scll.Dor jow, ft `ppc`rs h`rnct p`rtfbfp`jts `rc e`ppy to wfjg gowj dor tec cjg-od-yc`r eolfg`ysc`soj, SMR `j`lyst Cgcl Wully s`fg fj ` g`fly jotc.Bouplc tec tefj tr`gfjk voluhcs wfte tec huggy outloon dor Curopc `jg tec cjvfrojhcjt fjtec h`rnct `t tec hohcjt fs quftc bojgubfvc dor acrny prfbc hovchcjts, Hs. Wully `ggcg.Wec h`rnct droh ecrc ujtfl tec cjg od Gcbchmcr fs host prom`mly kofjk to mc gohfj`tcg myseort-tcrh r`jkc pl`ycrs. [c goumt `jy od tec ncy h`rnct p`rtfbfp`jts woulg opt to t`nc `jyfhport`jt str`tckfb posftfojs ecrc.

    @ll rfsn h`rncts e`vc mccj tuhmlfjk Hojg`y `s tec l`tcst hc`surcs my polfbyh`ncrs to`ggrcss tec curo zojcs gcmt brfsfs `rc qucstfojcg. Cbojohfsts s`y te`t weflc tecrc wcrc dcwsurprfscs droh l`st wccns bloscly-w`tbecg CS suhhft, tecrc rch`fj sohc ncy fssucsujrcsolvcg> lfnc ` brcgfmlc lcjgcr od l`st rcsort, tec l`bn od dfrcpowcr fj tec Curopc`jDfj`jbf`l Rt`mflfty D`bflfty, `jg hc`surcs to prohotc krowte.@lteouke kolg fs tr`gftfoj`lly bojsfgcrcg ` ecgkc `k`fjst cbojohfb fjscburfty, fts mce`vfor fjrcbcjt wccns e`s mccj horc bloscly `lfkjcg to tr`gftfoj`l rfsn-rcl`tcg `sscts sube `s m`schct`ls `jg cquftfcs, `s jcrvous fjvcstors sccn sol`bc fj b`se r`tecr te`j mullfoj.[eflc gfps mclow $0,459 `j oujbc seoulg gr`w sohc peysfb`l muycrskolgs tr`gftfoj`llyhorc prfbc-scjsftfvc fjvcstorsfjto tec h`rnct, so d`r tecfr rcspojsc to tec gcblfjc e`s mccjhutcg. Rtfll, kfvcj ` g`y fs ` lojk tfhc fj dfj`jbf`l h`rncts, p`rtfbul`rly `t tec hohcjt, te`tboulg sooj be`jkc `jg eclp to spur tec h`rnct m`bn tow`rg tec $0,;99 `j oujbc h`rn.@t 0006 KHW, spot kolg w`s 0.5% lowcr oj tec g`y `t $0,459.69

    ettp1//h`rncts.oj.jytfhcs.boh/rcsc`rbe/stobns/jcws/prcss_rclc`sc.`sp?gobW`k8=9000=960=9;MFQ[F]C_SRY]U____M[3443&dccgFG8499&prcss_syhmol82;=33

    Wec ]fsfjk Yrfbc od Kolg Moosts KWROs Outloon dor =90=

    Gcbchmcr 6, =900

    R@J AORC, B`lfd.--(MSRFJCRR [F]C)--Gcb. 6, =900-- Wec rfsfjk prfbc od kolg bojtfjucg to

    moost Krccj Wcbejoloky Rolutfojs, Fjb.s (OWBMM1 KWRO) outloon dor tec jcw yc`r tog`y`s tec rcsults od ` Curopc`j Sjfoj suhhft scjt tec prcbfous hct`l fjto ` r`lly.Wwcjty-tercc Curopc`j boujtrfcs `krccg to tfketcr dfsb`l ujfoj tefs horjfjk, t`nfjk mfk stcpsto solvc tec bojtfjcjts gcmt brfsfs. Wec prfbc od kolg fs blfhmfjk `s tec h`rnct mrc`tecs ` sfkeod rclfcd. We`ts koog jcws dor KWRO, wefbe fs bojdfgcjt te`t tec prfbc od kolg to bojtfjucrfsfjk wcll fjto =90=. Wec efkecr tec prfbc od kolg rfscs, tec horc prodft`mlc ft mcbohcs dorchcrkfjk bohp`jfcs sube `s KWRO to cxplorc `jg gcvclop tec ycllow hct`l.=900 e`s mccj ` trchcjgous yc`r dor kolg. Wec hct`l k`fjcg == pcrbcjt fj tec p`st 0= hojtes`jg eft ` rcborg efke od $0,6=9 pcr oujbc fj Rcptchmcr. H`jy h`rnct `j`lysts s`y te`t =90=wfll mc `j cvcj mcttcr yc`r dor kolg `s ft bojtfjucs to mc ` popul`r ecgkc `k`fjst fjdl`tfoj,

    prcgfbtfjk ` rfsc to $=,=99 pcr oujbc or horc fj tec jcxt 0= hojtes.

    http://markets.on.nytimes.com/research/stocks/news/press_release.asp?docTag=20111209120http://markets.on.nytimes.com/research/stocks/news/press_release.asp?docTag=20111209120
  • 8/3/2019 Studying the Issues of Gold Price Movements 1

    12/64

    R2r` Rut`j ]`ao @lf

    0= od 47

    [fte tec efke prfbc od kolg h`nfjk hfjfjk `jg gcvclophcjt horc prodft`mlc te`j cvcr,KWRO fs wornfjk dcvcrfsely to dfj`lfzc fts p`rtjcrsefp wfte Becry Hfjcr`ls, LLB, `jg mckfjjcw gcvclophcjt `btfvftfcs fj @drfb`, Route @hcrfb`, @l`sn` `jg p`rts od @sf`.KWRO pl`js to scrvfbc ` d`st-krowfjk klom`l `ppctftc dor r`rc `jg prcbfous hct`ls to bohpctcfj `j cxbftfjk scbtor te`t fjblugcs Kolgborp Fjb. (JVRC1 KK), Jcwhojt Hfjfjk Borp.

    (JVRC1 JCH), RYG] Kolg Re`rcs (JVRC@rb`1 KLG) `jg M`rrfbn Kolg Borp. (JVRC1@MU).Wo tr`bn kolgs hctcorfb rfsc `jg lc`rj horc `mout KWROs rcsourbc gcvclophcjt fjftf`tfvc,

    plc`sc vfsft www.ktsokolg.boh/fjvcstors.

    @mout Krccj Wcbejoloky Rolutfojs, Fjb.Krccj Wcbejoloky Rolutfojs, Fjb. ^www.KWROkolg.bohX fs ` krowte-orfcjtcg bohp`jycxplorfjk prcbfous hct`ls progubtfoj `roujg tec worlg. Fj `ggftfoj to kolg, KWRO pursucstec `bqufsftfoj od r`rc c`rtes `jg chcrkfjk blc`j tcbejoloky fjjov`tfojs. Wo lc`rj horc,

    plc`sc vfsft our wcmsftc `t www.KWROkolg.boh/fjvcstors.

    ettp1//wcmb`bec.kooklcuscrbojtcjt.boh/sc`rbe?q8b`bec1QUBdlSBxD99A1ojlfjc.wsa.boh/`rtfblc/RM099907=793=6;9=927022973;;95706=0==2652;9.ethl+Kolg+K`fjs+@ec`g+od+Curopc`j+Hcctfjks&bg80&el8fg&bt8bljn&kl8fg&blfcjt8opcr`

    Kolg K`fjs @ec`g od Curopc`j Hcctfjks

    My H@WW G@VGCBCHMC] ;, =900, =133 Y.H. CW

    JC[ VO]NKolg duturcs rosc `s fjvcstors mct te`t tefs wccn's hcctfjks od curo-zojclc`gcrs woulg rcsult fj gcmt brfsfs-dfketfjk stcps lfncly to fjbrc`sc gch`jg dor prcbfous hct`ls

    `s `ltcrj`tfvc `sscts.Wec Gcbchmcr-gclfvcry bojtr`bt rosc $02, or 9.5%, to scttlc `t $0,;79.69 ` troy oujbc oj tecBohcx gfvfsfoj od tec Jcw Vorn Hcrb`jtflc Cxbe`jkc.Duturcs e`vc mccj moujg fj ` j`rrow r`jkc tefs wccn `movc $0,;99, `s fjvcstors wcrcrclubt`jt to pl`bc l`rkc mcts `ec`g od ` scrfcs od efke-prodflc curo-zojc cvcjts. Wec Curopc`jBcjtr`l M`jn fs sbecgulcg to `jjoujbc Weursg`y tec scbojg fjtcrcst-r`tc gcbfsfoj odYrcsfgcjt H`rfo Gr`kef's tcjurc."Vou e`vc ` lfttlc ujbcrt`fjty wfte tec jcw ec`g od tec CBM," s`fg L`rry Voujk, prcsfgcjt odBovcj`jt Wr`gfjk. "Fs ec kofjk to t`nc ` scbojg opportujfty to but r`tcs?"Kolg blfhmcg fj c`rly Jovchmcr `dtcr tec CBM but fts mcjbeh`rn fjtcrcst r`tc to moost teccuro zojc's dl`kkfjk cbojohy. Lowcr fjtcrcst r`tcs h`nc kolg, wefbe oddcrs jo ku`r`jtccg

    yfclg, horc `ttr`btfvc bohp`rcg wfte fjtcrcst-mc`rfjk fjvcsthcjts.@lso Weursg`y, Curopc`j Sjfoj lc`gcrs `rc sct to eolg `j fjdorh`l gfjjcr `ec`g od tecdollowfjk g`y's suhhft.Wr`gcrs `rc "rclubt`jt to scll kolg `kkrcssfvcly" mcdorc tec hcctfjk, Rt`jg`rg M`jn `j`lyst[`ltcr gc [ct s`fg fj ` jotc. Rohc fjvcstors `rc eopfjk te`t tec hcctfjk wfll rcsult fj durtecrstcps to moost lfqufgfty fj tec b`se-str`ppcg burrcjby ujfoj, wefbe boulg fjbrc`sc gch`jg dorkolg `s ` burrcjby `ltcrj`tfvc.Kolg e`s mccj se`bnlcg my gour fjvcstor scjtfhcjt tow`rg tec curo zojc, `s ` brcgft brujbetecrc boulg spur ` ruse to b`se te`t woulg sl`h kolg. Wec prcbfous hct`l `s ` rcsult e`skcjcr`lly tr`gcg fj lfjc wfte bohhogftfcs `jg otecr krowte-scjsftfvc `sscts fj rcbcjt wccns,spurjfjk fts obb`sfoj`l pcrbcfvcg rolc `s ` s`dc e`vcj droh cbojohfb turhofl.

    Y`ll`gfuh blfhmcg to fts efkecst prfbc sfjbc hfg-Rcptchmcr, `s fjvcstors weo e`g mct ojprfbc gcblfjcs rcvcrscg teosc mcts `hfg cxpcbt`tfojs od rfsfjk klom`l `uto s`lcs. Gch`jg dor

    http://www.gtsogold.com/investorshttp://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:ZXCflUCxF00J:online.wsj.com/artihttp://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:ZXCflUCxF00J:online.wsj.com/artihttp://www.gtsogold.com/investors
  • 8/3/2019 Studying the Issues of Gold Price Movements 1

    13/64

    Rtugyfjk tec fssucs od kolg prfbc hovchcjts

    02 od 47

    tec hct`l fj `uto cxe`ust dfltcrs `bboujtcg dor horc te`j 49% od klom`l bojsuhptfoj l`styc`r.H`rbe-gclfvcry duturcs rosc =.=% to $453.73 ` troy oujbc, `j 00-wccn efke.[rftc to H`tt G`y `t h`tt.g`yIgowaojcs.boh

    ettp1//ojlfjc.wsa.boh/`rtfblc/RM099907=793=6;9=97;;97973;;95906=9524=5=79.ethl

    Kolg ]ctrc`ts `s CS Gcmt [orrfcs [cfke

    My W@WV@J@ RESHRNVGCBCHMC] 3, =900, 219; Y.H. CW

    JC[ VO]NKolg rctrc`tcg `s Kcrh`jy `jg Dr`jbc's pl`j dor curo-zojc mugkct rcdorhsw`sj't cjouke to sootec fjvcstor worrfcs `mout Curopc's wfgcsprc`g sovcrcfkj-gcmt

    promlchs.Wec bojtr`bt dor Gcbchmcr gclfvcry lost $04.29, or 9.6%, to scttlc `t $0,;29.;9 ` troy oujbcoj tec Bohcx gfvfsfoj od tec Jcw Vorn Hcrb`jtflc Cxbe`jkc.Kolg prfbcs p`rcg c`rlfcr losscs mut rch`fjcg sumgucg teroukeout Hojg`y tr`gc `dtcrKcrh`j Be`jbcllor @jkcl` Hcrncl `jg Drcjbe Yrcsfgcjt Jfbol`s R`rnozy b`llcg dor trc`tybe`jkcs to `pply stfdd s`jbtfojs to dfsb`lly w`yw`rg curo-zojc hchmcrs."Kolg fs loonfjk dor tec jcxt pfcbc od jcws out od Curopc," s`fg G`vc Hckcr, gfrcbtor odhct`ls tr`gfjk wfte Tfsfoj Dfj`jbf`l.Wec h`rnct fs w`tbefjk ` wccn-lojk scrfcs od Curopc-dobuscg hcctfjks dfjfsefjk wfteDrfg`y's Curopc`j Sjfoj suhhft fj Mrusscls.Curopc`j lc`gcrs "wfll ojbc `k`fj sft `jg t`ln `jg try to dfkurc out eow to stccr `w`y drohtec hcss tec rckfoj dfjgs ftscld fj `t tec prcscjt tfhc," Aoj J`glcr, scjfor hct`ls `j`lyst wfteNftbo Hct`ls Fjb. Jorte @hcrfb`, s`fg fj ` jotc to blfcjts.

    Drfg`y's wccnly Bohhogfty Duturcs Wr`gfjk Bohhfssfoj rcport seowcg ` gcblfjc fj mcts ojefkecr prfbcs `hojk h`j`kcg hojcy dujgs, `ggfjk prcssurc to kolg prfbcs."Rpcbul`tfvc dfj`jbf`l fjvcstors `rc stfll seowfjk rctfbcjbc `jg dor tec scbojg wccn rujjfjkhogcr`tcly but tecfr jct lojk posftfojs fj tec wccn to =6 Jovchmcr," s`fg `j`lysts `tBohhcrzm`jn.Rflvcr duturcs dollowcg kolg lowcr, wfte Gcbchmcr-gclfvcry sflvcr d`llfjk 20.3 bcjts, or 0%,to scttlc `t $2=.294 ` troy oujbc.[rftc to W`ty`j` Reuhsny `t t`ty`j`.seuhsnyIgowaojcs.boh

    ettp1//www.jytfhcs.boh/=900/00/=2/musfjcss/klom`l/fj -jcrvous-h`rnct-kolg-k`fjs-rcspcbt`mflfty.ethl?p`kcw`jtcg8`ll

    F.E.W. Rpcbf`l ]cport1 Jct [orteFj Jcrvous H`rnct, Kolg K`fjs ]cspcbt`mflftyMy Kcr`lgfjc D`mrfn`jt

    Jovchmcr ==, =900

    Myroj [fcj, tec fjvcsthcjt str`tckfst, e`s mccj dorcb`stfjk tec duturc dor gcb`gcs. Mut tefs fstec dfrst yc`r te`t ec e`s oddfbf`lly rcbohhcjgcg kolg fj efs hogcl portdolfo.@jg `t tec mckfjjfjk od tefs hojte, Hr. [fcj, vfbc be`frh`j od Ml`bnstojc @gvfsoryY`rtjcrs, s`fg ec w`s h`fjt`fjfjk efs 3 pcrbcjt `llob`tfoj to kolg dor jcxt yc`r.Wec hct`l e`s mcbohc tec fjsur`jbc polfby od beofbc dor h`jy sopefstfb`tcg fjvcstors. Cvcj`hojk teosc weo wcrc jcvcr kolg muks, tecrc fs jow ` mclfcd te`t ft e`s fts pl`bc fj `

    portdolfo.

    mailto:[email protected]://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204770404577080192083628240.htmlmailto:[email protected]://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/23/business/global/inhttp://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/23/business/global/inmailto:[email protected]://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204770404577080192083628240.htmlmailto:[email protected]
  • 8/3/2019 Studying the Issues of Gold Price Movements 1

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    R2r` Rut`j ]`ao @lf

    07 od 47

    Hr. [fcjs vfcw bohcs gcspftc tec d`bt te`t kolg, wefbe w`s up =6.3 pcrbcjt fj =909, w`s up`j `ggftfoj`l =9.; pcrbcjt `t tec cjg od Obtomcr od tefs yc`r, `bborgfjk to Hr. [fcjs hostrcbcjt rcport jc`rly goumlc tec fjbrc`sc dor rc`l cst`tc, tec scbojg-efkecst fjbrc`sc `hojkHr. [fcjs rcbohhcjgcg `ssct bl`sscs.Efs gcbfsfoj to bojtfjuc rcbohhcjgfjk kolg bohcs cvcj weflc sohc fjvcstors dccl te`t `dtcr

    sube ` stccp ruj, prfbcs h`y d`ll. Wec rcturjs rcdlcbt tec e`rg rc`lfty te`t `s kovcrjhcjts prfjthojcy, tecrcmy gcm`sfjk tec v`luc od tecfr burrcjbfcs, kolg stfll loons lfnc ` scjsfmlc optfoj.Wec hojcy supply wfll mc cxp`jgcg fj tec h`aor burrcjbfcs fj tec gcvclopcg worlg, `jgfjvcstors wfll sccn tec protcbtfoj od e`rg `sscts1 sohctefjk rc`l, `jg kolg fs pcrbcfvcg `src`l, Hr. [fcj s`fg my tclcpeojc.Fs ec cxpcbtfjk kolg to bojtfjuc fts `stojfsefjk `sbcjt? Wecrc `rc rc`sojs to goumt te`t ft wfll.Dor cx`hplc, tec goll`r e`s r`llfcg `s dc`rs od promlchs fj tec curo zojc e`vc krowj. Odtcjte`t fjbrc`sc dorcb`sts ` grop fj kolg v`luc, sfjbc gctcrfor`tfoj fj burrcjby v`lucs sukkcstsefkecr kolg prfbcs.We`t gocs jot be`jkc Hr. [fcjs vfcw. Vou gojt muy fjsur`jbc mcb`usc you tefjn you wflle`vc ` dfrc or ` dloog, ec s`fg. Vou muy ft `jg you eopc you gojt bollcbt oj ft.

    Cvcj tec Dcgcr`l ]cscrvc be`frh`j, Mcj R. Mcrj`jnc, e`s mccj w`tbefjk tec prfbc od kolg `s`j fjgcx od fjvcstor bojdfgcjbc fj tec duturc. F tefjn tec rc`soj pcoplc eolg kolg fs `s `

    protcbtfoj `k`fjst we`t wc b`ll t`fl rfsn rc`lly, rc`lly m`g outbohcs, Hr. Mcrj`jnc s`fg`t ` ec`rfjk fj Auly mcdorc tec S.R. Bojkrcss. Wo tec cxtcjt te`t tec l`st dcw yc`rs e`vch`gc pcoplc horc worrfcg `mut tec potcjtf`l od ` h`aor brfsfs, tecj tecy e`vc kolg `s `

    protcbtfoj.Roujgs lokfb`l, rfket? @jg yct kolg fs ` bojtrovcrsf`l fjvcsthcjt.Kolg fs cvcj horc spcbul`tfvc te`j rc`l cst`tc, s`fg Dr`j Nfjjfry, ` prfjbfp`l fj T`jku`rgsFjvcsthcjt Rtr`tcky Kroup. @t lc`st wfte eousfjk, you e`vc tec fjbohc droh rcjts. [ftekolg tecrc fs jo fjbohc `t `ll. Kolg gocs jot p`y gfvfgcjgs or fjtcrcst, so tec ojly tefjk youkct fs tec prfbc gfddcrcjtf`l. Ft e`s mcjcdftcg droh h`jy hojtes od dlfket-to-s`dcty dlows te`tb`j br`se `t `jy hohcjt.Wec dujg`hcjt`l ujgcrpfjjfjks `rc so se`ny te`t F e`vc jo bojdfgcjbc we`tsocvcr te`t `jyso-b`llcg rcl`tfojsefp mctwccj tec prfbc od kolg `jg `jytefjk clsc fs ` st`mlc rcl`tfojsefp,Hr. Nfjjfry s`fg.Cvcj so, `s tec Ft`lf`j `jg Krccn kovcrjhcjts d`fl to rcsolvc tecfr promlchs, kolg loons

    p`rtfbul`rly `ttr`btfvc mcb`usc, wfte tec goll`r, ft fs bojsfgcrcg ` s`dc e`rmor fj tfhcs od subeujbcrt`fjty.Kolg fs ` hojcy te`t kovcrjhcjts gojt prfjt, s`fg Be`rlcs Rtcvcjsoj, ` prfv`tc fjvcstorweo dfrst mouket kolg gurfjk tec fjdl`tfoj od tec 06;9s `jg bojtfjucs to owj kolg tog`y,`lteouke ec e`s tr`gcg fj `jg out `lojk tec w`y.

    Fts ` w`y to eolg v`luc wecj tecrc fs jotefjk to fjvcst fj mcb`usc ft storcs v`luc tec w`yhojcy fs supposcg to, ec s`fg. Fd you eolg your `sscts fj hojcy, fjdl`tfoj jow cxbccgsfjtcrcst r`tcs, `jg tec kovcrjhcjt fs gr`fjfjk purbe`sfjk powcr.Wec sftu`tfoj fs suddfbfcjtly vol`tflc te`t K`ry Mrfjsoj, ` vctcr`j str`tckfst `jg sbeol`r weorujs tec Mrfjsoj Doujg`tfoj, `krccs te`t kolg, cvcj `t fts burrcjtly efke prfbc, h`y e`vc `sh`ll pl`bc `s fjsur`jbc.Vou b`j kct fjto wfjgows od tfhc wecrc kolg wfll `bt `s ` boujtcrwcfket fj `j otecrwfsc`ssct-m`scg portdolfo, ec s`fg. Wec promlch fs te`t fd you p`y too hube dor ft, fts `mflfty tooddsct tec fjdl`tfoj`ry cddcbt fs gfhfjfsecg.@s rcbcjtly `s ` hojte `ko, kolg dcll gr`stfb`lly, surprfsfjk `jg worryfjk fjvcstors. Wecrc`rc b`vc`ts, Hr. Rtcvcjsoj s`fg. Fj ` m`g worlg, kolg wojt jcbcss`rfly h`fjt`fj fts v`luc.

    Fd rc`l cst`tc grops fj e`ld `jg kolg grops ` qu`rtcr, dor cx`hplc, you b`j scll kolg `jg muytwfbc `s hube rc`l cst`tc.

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    03 od 47

    [e`t h`ncs tec sftu`tfoj p`rtfbul`rly bohplfb`tcg tog`y fs te`t tec c`sfcst vcefblc dor `vcr`kcfjvcstors weo w`jt to eolg kolg `rc kolg cxbe`jkc-tr`gcg dujgs. Wecy `rc vol`tflc mcb`uscyou b`j muy tech oj h`rkfj, `jg te`t `ttr`bts spcbul`tfvc muycrs.Wecrc `rc wflg b`rgs, too. Ycoplc weo jccg hojcy scll tec `sscts te`t b`j mc solg. Fd youfjvcstcg fj Aoej Borzfjcs HD Klom`l `jg you jccgcg to scll teosc `sscts, you boulgjt go

    ft, Hr. Rtcvcjsoj s`fg. Wecrc fs `lw`ys ` mfggcr dor kolg, aust lfnc tecrc `rc `lw`ys mfggcrsdor top-qu`lfty rc`l cst`tc, mut tecrc hfket jot mc mfggcrs dor M-qu`lfty rc`l cst`tc.Bcrt`fjly tecrc wcrc efstorfb`l pcrfogs wecj kolg w`s ` m`g mct. Ft w`s ` gfs`ppofjtfjkeolgfjk mctwccj 0659 `jg =999, wecj otecr `sscts wcrc krowfjk fj v`luc. @s fjtcrcst r`tcsgcblfjcg, `jy bohp`jy fj wefbe ojc fjvcstcg boulg rcdfj`jbc, h`nfjk ft ` mcjfkjcjvfrojhcjt to usc b`se dor otecr fjvcsthcjts.Mut A`hcs Kr`jt, weo e`s ` jcwslcttcr, rch`fjs mullfse gcspftc tec efbbups mcb`usc ec

    mclfcvcs te`t tec bcjtr`l m`jns jorte, soute c`st `jg wcst e`vc kottcj out od tec bcjtr`lm`jnfjk musfjcss `jg fjto tec bcjtr`l pl`jjfjk musfjcss, hc`jfjk te`t tecy `rc gcvotcg tor`fsfjk up1 fd tecy b`j> cbojohfb krowte `jg chployhcjt terouke tec gumfous hc`js odsupprcssfjk fjtcrcst r`tcs `jg prfjtfjk hojcy. Wec jfbc tefjk `mout kolg fs te`t you b`jt

    prfjt ft.E`vfjk s`fg te`t, Hr. Kr`jt `bnjowlcgkcs te`t wecj kolg dcll 39 pcrbcjt fj =995, ft bcrt`fjlytcstcg bojdfgcjbc, ec s`fg. Mut ec sfhply gocs jot mclfcvc te`t, dor jow, m`jncrs b`j scc fjtotec duturc `jg fhprovc tefjks.@ vcrsfoj od tefs spcbf`l rcport `ppc`rcg fj prfjt oj Jovchmcr =3, =900, oj p`kc M2 od tec

    Jcw Vorn cgftfoj wfte tec ec`glfjc1 Fj ` Jcrvous H`rnct, Kolg Dfjgs Jcw D`js.

    ettp1//mloks.wsa.boh/h`rnctmc`t/=900/09/=;/kolg -seoulg-kct-m`bn-to-mce`vfjk-lfnc-`-s`dc-e`vcj-`jy-g`y-jow-`j`lysts/

    Kolg Reoulg Kct M`bn to Mce`vfjk Lfnc ` R`dc E`vcj @jy G`y Jow1 @j`lystsMy H`rn KojkloddObtomcr =;, =900, =172 YHBohhcrzm`jn

    Kolg fj =995 `jg =900.[cvc mccj wojgcrfjk dor ` weflc jow wectecr kolg w`s rc`lly ` s`dc e`vcj `jy horc, wfteOlg Vcllcr mce`vfjk lfnc ` stobn or ` BGO-squ`rcg l`tcly, r`tecr te`j tec `j`berojfstfbgoohsg`y ecgkc V`ewce gcbrccg ft to mc.Bohhcrzm`jn hct`ls `j`lysts wrotc ` jotc tog`y bojsfgcrfjk tec h`ttcr `jg s`y tecyvcdfkurcg out we`ts mccj kofjk oj wfte kolg. @jg tecy s`y fts aust `s hube od ` s`dc e`vcj `s

    cvcr.Kolg plujkcg gurfjk tec rcbcjt scllodd h`fjly mcb`usc kolg mulls e`g to lfqufg`tc tecfr

    posftfojs to bovcr h`rkfj b`lls, Bohhcrzm`jn wrftcs. Wecy gfg sohctefjk sfhfl`r gurfjk tecbrfsfs fj =995, wecj kolg prfbcs `lso mrfcdly stoppcg mce`vfjk lfnc ` s`dc e`vcj1@ loon m`bn `t tec brfsfs yc`r =995 eclps to cxpl`fj tefs ujusu`l mce`vfour. Fj Obtomcr `jg

    Jovchmcr od te`t yc`r, prfbcs mce`vcg fj ` sfhfl`r w`y1 tec kolg prfbc groppcg my `j `vcr`kcod 03% pcr wccn fj dour sumscqucjt wccns, `jg SR stobn h`rncts gcblfjcg my `j `vcr`kc od0;% pcr wccn gurfjk tec s`hc pcrfog.Aust lfnc tecj, dorbcg s`lcs oj tec duturcs h`rnct wcrc prom`mly mcefjg tec kolg prfbc gcblfjc.Duturcs fjvcstors `rc ojly fjtcrcstcg fj seort-tcrh prfbc hovchcjts. Wecsc (h`fjlyfjstftutfoj`l) fjvcstors usu`lly fjvcst hojcy fj cquftfcs, bohhogftfcs `jg otecr rfsny `sscts,

    too. Fj orgcr to oddsct losscs droh tecsc `ssct bl`sscs tecy h`y mc dorbcg to scll kolg duturcs fjtfhcs od brfsfs.

    http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011/10/27/goldhttp://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011/10/27/gold
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    Horcovcr, h`rkfj rcqufrchcjts dor kolg duturcs `t BOHCU wcrc gr`stfb`lly r`fscg my teccxbe`jkc opcr`tor BHC tefs suhhcr. [eflc tec fjftf`l h`rkfj dor c`be duturcs bojtr`bt`houjtcg to SR$ 4,9;3 `t tec mckfjjfjk od @ukust, tefs `houjt w`s r`fscg fj tercc stcps toSR$ 00,7;3 my tec cjg od Rcptchmcr. Wec bosts dor muyfjk `jg eolgfjk kolg duturcs e`vctecrcdorc `lhost goumlcg wftefj wccns, `jg tefs gcvclophcjt fs lfncly to e`vc b`uscg sohc

    fjvcstors to lfqufg`tc tecfr posftfojs.Wecy s`y tecy gojt tefjn kolgs p`fj wfll l`st hube lojkcr, fd fts jot ovcr `lrc`gy1Dor eow lojk wfll tec ujusu`l kolg prfbc mce`vfour bojtfjuc? Wercc yc`rs `ko ft toon teckolg prfbc `mout ojc hojte to dfjg fts mottoh> ft st`rtcg to rfsc `k`fj fj hfg-Jovchmcr. @ttec cjg od tec yc`r ft e`g `lhost rcturjcg to tec lcvcl sccj `t tec mckfjjfjk od Obtomcr. @t tec

    mckfjjfjk od =996 kolg gfg dull austfbc to fts rolc `s ` s`dc e`vcj fj tfhcs od brfsfs `jg tefsw`s rcdlcbtcg my eukc fjdlows fjto kolg CWDs.Wecy tefjn kolg fs kofjk to kct m`bn to $0599 `j oujbc my tec cjg od tefs yc`r `jg $0699 mytec cjg od =90=.Ft rosc tog`y `lojk wfte rfsny `sscts to jc`rly $0;39 `j oujbc.

    ettp1//wcmb`bec.kooklcuscrbojtcjt.boh/sc`rbe?q8b`bec1nOWArLoUtrwA1ojlfjc.wsa.boh/`rtfblc/RM099907=793=6;9=97025=973;43657425397096=7.ethl+Kolg,+Rflvcr+Wopplc+`s+CS+Dc`rs+Gr`fj+Optfhfsh&bg80&el8fg&bt8bljn&kl8fg&blfcjt8opcr`

    Kolg, Rflvcr Wopplc `s CS Dc`rs Gr`fj Optfhfsh

    My W@WV@J@ RESHRNVRCYWCHMC] =5, =900, 2190 Y.H. CW

    JC[ VO]NKolg `jg sflvcr duturcs turjcg se`rply lowcr fj tec dfj`l eour od tr`gfjk `sdc`rs `mout tec curo zojc's dfj`jbf`l duturc ovcrweclhcg eopcs od prokrcss fj rcsolvfjk tec

    rckfoj's gcmt brfsfs.Kolg prfbcs slfg tow`rg $0,499 ` troy oujbc, wfte tec Rcptchmcr-gclfvcry bojtr`bt scttlfjk$27.29, or =.0%, lowcr `t $0,404.29 ` troy oujbc oj tec Bohcx gfvfsfoj od tec Jcw VornHcrb`jtflc Cxbe`jkc.Rflvcr mronc mclow $29 fj `dtcr-h`rnct tr`gfjk, teouke tec Rcptchmcr bojtr`bt scttlcg `t$29.953 ` troy oujbc, gowj $0.70= or 7.3%.Dor hube od tec g`y, prcbfous-hct`ls prfbcs wcrc b`uket fj ` tuk od w`r mctwccj eopcs te`tCuropc woulg h`nc prokrcss wfte fts gcmt promlchs `jg dc`rs tec rckfoj's brfsfs woulg spfjout od bojtrol.Mut `s tec g`y worc oj, fjvcstors krcw pcssfhfstfb `jg st`rtcg scllfjk e`rg `sscts fj d`vor odb`se, `s h`jy worry te`t ` curo-zojc gcd`ult woulg trfkkcr ` lfqufgfty brujbe.

    "Cvcj teouke wc wcrc efkecr ycstcrg`y, ft's we`t wc b`ll ` 'gc`g b`t moujbc'tec gfsposftfojod tec h`rnct sfjbc Drfg`y fs to ko gowj," s`fg ]`lpe Yrcstoj, ` h`rnct `j`lyst wfte Ecrft`kc[cst Dfj`jbf`l.Hr. Yrcstoj s`fg kolg prfbcs h`y grop `s low `s $0,3;3 fj clcbtrojfb tr`gfjk.@ttcjtfoj jow rcsts wfte Krccbc, wefbe fs guc to rcsuhc t`lns wfte oddfbf`ls droh tecCuropc`j Bcjtr`l M`jn, tec Fjtcrj`tfoj`l Hojct`ry Dujg `jg Curopc`j Bohhfssfoj oddfbf`lsWeursg`y. Wec trofn` od fjspcbtors wfll rcvfcw @tecjs' prokrcss oj `ustcrfty hc`surcs `jgcbojohfb rcdorhs. C`rlfcr tefs hojte, gfsbussfojs wcrc but seort wecj ` gfsputc cruptcg ovcrwectecr Krccbc w`s gofjk cjouke to hcct fts mugkct t`rkcts.Wr`gcrs `rc `lso w`tbefjk Kcrh`jy, wefbe fs sct to votc oj propos`ls to cxp`jg Curopc's

    m`flout dujg. Wec hc`surcs, wefbe woulg jc`rly goumlc tec dujg's sfzc, hust mc `pprovcg my

    `ll 0; hchmcrs od tec burrcjby ujfoj teouke Kcrh`jy, `s tec rckfoj's l`rkcst cbojohy,woulg e`vc to put up tec host fj `ggftfoj`l dujgfjk.

    http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:kOTJrLoXtrwJ:online.wsj.com/articlhttp://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:kOTJrLoXtrwJ:online.wsj.com/articl
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    Rtugyfjk tec fssucs od kolg prfbc hovchcjts

    0; od 47

    "@ lot od tr`gcrs `rc aust bojbcrjcg te`t jomogy fs kofjk to bohc up wfte ` koog solutfoj ^dorCuropc's gcmt promlchsX," s`fg ]om Nurz`tnowsnf, scjfor bohhogfty `j`lyst wfteoptfojsUprcss. "Wec rcbcjt scllodd w`s cxbcssfvc, mut `t tec s`hc tfhc wc'rc jot sccfjk ` h`gruse od pcoplc bohfjk fj to muy cftecr."Rflvcr prfbcs, wefbe gcblfjcg `mout =3% tefs hojte, `rc provfjk p`rtfbul`rly scjsftfvc to tec

    jck`tfvc scjtfhcjt. @j cbojohfb slowgowj fj Curopc woulg burm gch`jg dor sflvcr, wefbefs uscg fj cvcrytefjk droh bechfb`l progubtfoj `jg kl`ss to efke-cjg clcbtrojfbs.Mut rct`fl fjvcstors `rc dlobnfjk to pfbn up tec krcy hct`l `t bec`pcr prfbcs gcspftc tecscdc`rs. Yeysfb`l sflvcr eclg my cxbe`jkc-tr`gcg dujgs e`s fjbrc`scg my 063 hctrfb tojs (=03seort tojs) ovcr tec p`st two g`ys, wefbe horc te`j oddsct tec 63 hctrfb tojs rcgcchcg fj tec

    prcvfous dour scssfojs, s`fg M`rbl`ys B`pft`l `j`lyst Runf Boopcr."Kfvcj tec sflvcr h`rnct rch`fjs fj ` dujg`hcjt`l surplus, tec upsfgc bojtfjucs to rcst wftefjvcstor fjtcrcst," Hs. Boopcr s`fg fj ` jotc to blfcjts.

    Jyhcx pl`tfjuh dor Obtomcr gclfvcry scttlcg $26.59, or =.3%, lowcr `t $0,327.=9 ` troyoujbc."Burrcjtly, pl`tfjuh fs l`kkfjk tec rcbovcry od tec otecr prcbfous hct`ls, pcre`ps wcfkecg

    gowj my bojbcrjs ovcr ` d`ll-odd fj fjgustrf`l gch`jg seoulg ` rcbcssfoj h`tcrf`lfzc fj tecS.R. `jg/or tec curo zojc," H`rb Kroujg, ` prcbfous-hct`ls `j`lyst wfte Rt`jg`rg M`jn,wrotc fj ` jotc to blfcjts.Yl`tfjuh fs uscg fj cvcrytefjk droh b`r cxe`ust dfltcrs `jg brugc-ofl rcdfjcrfcs to kl`ss dordl`t-p`jcl WT sbrccjs, `jg fjgustrf`l gch`jg dor tec hct`l tcjgs to w`jc wecj cbojohfb`btfvfty slows gowj.[rftc to W`ty`j` Reuhsny `t t`ty`j`.seuhsnyIgowaojcs.boh

    ettp1//www.jytfhcs.boh/=900/96/=2/musfjcss/cbojohy/`dtcr-eukc-k`fjs-fj-kolg-ecgkc-dujgs-scll.ethl?_r8=

    @ Kolg ]use [`jcs `s Ecgkc Dujgs RcllMy Aulfc BrcswcllRcptchmcr ==, =900

    Fs tec sh`rt hojcy dlccfjk kolg?Dor tec mcttcr p`rt od tec l`st two yc`rs, sohc od tec worlgs mfkkcst ecgkc dujgs e`vc mccj

    pflfjk fjto kolg, mcttfjk tec prcbfous hct`l woulg provfgc `j cddcbtfvc ecgkc `k`fjst fjdl`tfojor mc ` s`dcr pl`bc to p`rn b`se `s cqufty h`rncts `roujg tec worlg stuhmlcg.Mut to tec surprfsc od h`jy fjvcstors, wecj cqufty h`rncts `bross tec klomc tuhmlcg ojbc`k`fj oj Weursg`y, kolg hovcg se`rply lowcr `s wcll.

    Kolg duturcs dor Rcptchmcr gclfvcry dcll $44.29, or 2.; pcrbcjt, to $0,;26.=9 `j oujbc fjJcw Vorn. Ft w`s quftc ` turj`mout dor tec hct`l, wefbe e`s mccj so`rfjk fj rcbcjt hojtes`hfg tec turmulcjt stobn h`rncts.Ecgkc dujgs, wefbe e`vc mccj r`tbectfjk gowj tecfr posftfojs fj kolg duturcs sfjbc c`rly@ukust, wcrc qufbnly j`hcg `s tec bulprfts fj tec l`tcst scll-odd.Rohc tr`gcrs s`fg te`t ecgkc dujgs wcrc mckfjjfjk to ujwfjg, or blosc out, we`t e`s mccj `vcry popul`r `jg prodft`mlc tr`gc dor tec l`st 05 hojtes `s tecy mct tec goll`r woulg d`ll `jgte`t kolg woulg rfsc. Fj tec l`st hojte `lojc, tec curo e`s d`llcj jc`rly 7 pcrbcjt `k`fjst tecgoll`r `hfg worrfcs `mout tec Curopc`j gcmt brfsfs.Wec scll-odd fj kolg w`s p`rt od ` mro`gcr hovc fj tec h`rncts te`t e`g fjvcstors sefdtfjk`w`y droh pcrbcfvcg rfsnfcr `sscts, lfnc bohhogftfcs, `jg fjto tec goll`r fj rc`btfoj to tec

    Dcgcr`l ]cscrvcs `jjoujbchcjt oj [cgjcsg`y od fts jcw stfhulus prokr`h.

    mailto:[email protected]://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/23/business/economy/afterhttp://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/23/business/economy/aftermailto:[email protected]
  • 8/3/2019 Studying the Issues of Gold Price Movements 1

    18/64

    R2r` Rut`j ]`ao @lf

    05 od 47

    Fj `ggftfoj, tec Dcg s`fg te`t tecrc wcrc sfkjfdfb`jt gowjsfgc rfsns to tec Sjftcg Rt`tcscbojohy, wefbe scjt scvcr`l bohhogftfcs, fjblugfjk brugc ofl `jg boppcr, tuhmlfjk ojWeursg`y oj dc`rs od ` klom`l slowgowj fj gch`jg.Otecr h`rnct p`rtfbfp`jts s`fg ecgkc dujgs wcrc scllfjk tecfr posftfojs fj kolg to r`fsc b`se tohcct fjbrc`scg b`pft`l gch`jgs dor tecfr morrowfjks droh [`ll Rtrcct m`jns `s tec `sscts

    tecy e`vc put up `s boll`tcr`l, lfnc otecr bohhogftfcs or stobns, e`vc gcblfjcg se`rply fjv`luc.Oj tec ojc e`jg you e`vc ` lot od strcjkte fj tec S.R. goll`r, efstorfb`lly kolg `jg tec goll`rgo tr`gc fjvcrscly, s`fg ]y`j Gctrfbn, scjfor tcbejfb`l str`tckfst `t Rbe`cddcrs Fjvcsthcjt]csc`rbe. Wec ecgkc dujgs `rc lojk kolg `jg tecy jccg to r`fsc b`se `jg ft loons lfnc tecy`rc gcdfjftcly scllfjk sohc kolg.Otecrs s`y sohc ecgkc dujgs h`y mc scllfjk to hcct rcgchptfoj rcqucsts droh fjvcstors weoe`vc mccj spooncg my tec rcbcjt h`rnct vol`tflfty `jg dc`r ` rcpc`t od tec promlchs od l`tc=995.@ lot od fjvcstors `rc w`nfjk up to tec rc`lfz`tfoj te`t sohctefjk fs odd. [cvc sccjKolgh`j R`bes blosc fts dl`ksefp dujg, lckcjg`ry ecgkc dujgs `rc gowj se`rply, `jg F

    suspcbt wcrc kofjk to scc sfkjfdfb`jt wftegr`w`ls droh sohc ecgkc dujgs tefs yc`r, s`fgHfbe`cl @. K`ycg, tec befcd fjvcsthcjt str`tckfst od tec fjvcsthcjt `gvfsory dfrh YcjsfojY`rtjcrs.Wec tcjgcjby dor fjgfvfgu`l ecgkc dujgs or `jymogy fs to scll wfjjcrs mcdorc tecy scllloscrs. [e`ts mccj ojc od tec dcw wfjjcrs tefs yc`r? Fts mccj kolg, Hr. K`ycg `ggcg.Rtfll, sohc `rc jot yct rc`gy to b`ll tec cjg od tec kolg ruse. Cvcj wfte tec pullm`bn, kolgrch`fjs ojc od tec host prodft`mlc fjvcsthcjts tefs yc`r wfte ` k`fj od == pcrbcjt.Rohc str`tckfsts e`vc cvcj prcgfbtcg te`t kolg wfll rc`be ` rcborg od `movc $=,299, wefbe fteft gurfjk tec c`rly 0659s wecj `gaustcg dor fjdl`tfoj `jg tr`jsl`tcg fjto burrcjt goll`rs.Lfncwfsc, tec worlgs l`rkcst cxbe`jkc-tr`gcg kolg dujg, tec RYG] Kolg Re`rcs, dcll =.4

    pcrbcjt oj Weursg`y, mut rch`fjs up == pcrbcjt dor tec yc`r.Kolg, wectecr terouke duturcs bojtr`bts or vf` cxbe`jkc-tr`gcg dujgs, e`s mccj ` popul`rfjvcsthcjt `hojk sohc od tec worlgs l`rkcst ecgkc dujgs. Ojc od tec mcst njowj kolg

    muks fs Aoej @. Y`ulsoj, weosc dfrh, Y`ulsoj & Bohp`jy, fs tec mfkkcst se`rceolgcr fj tecRYG] Kolg Re`rcs CWD. Mut h`jy otecr ecgkc dujgs e`vc chmr`bcg tec hct`l `s wcll.@dtcr pc`nfjk fj c`rly @ukust, ecgkc dujgs e`vc mccj rcgubfjk tecfr cxposurc fj tec kolgduturcs h`rnct, `bborgfjk to H`ry @jj M`rtcls, tec ec`g od Sjftcg Rt`tcs tcbejfb`l `j`lysfsdor M`jn od @hcrfb` Hcrrfll Lyjbe.@ lot od spcbul`tors wcrc vcry lojk fj Auly, Hs. M`rtcls s`fg. Mut tecyvc mccj t`nfjk ftgowj cvcr sfjbc.@ vcrsfoj od tefs `rtfblc `ppc`rcg fj prfjt oj Rcptchmcr =2, =900, oj p`kc M0 od tec Jcw

    Vorn cgftfoj wfte tec ec`glfjc1 @ Kolg ]use [`jcs @s Ecgkc Dujgs Rcll.

    ettp1//nrukh`j.mloks.jytfhcs.boh/=900/96/09/kolgcj-spfncs/

    Wec Bojsbfcjbc od @ Lfmcr`l1 Kolgcj RpfncsMy Y`ul Nrukh`jRcptchmcr 09, =900, 0=197 ph

    @s sohc rc`gcrs h`y e`vc kucsscg, Fh e`vfjk sohc duj tefjnfjk `mout kolg prfbccbojohfbs jotefjk lfnc ` koog fjtcllcbtu`l puzzlc to nccp you obbupfcg weflc tec worlgboll`pscs. @jyw`y, sohc pcoplc e`vc `sncg `mout prcvfous kolg prfbc dlubtu`tfojs, `jg fj

    p`rtfbul`r wectecr hy low-fjtcrcst-r`tc story b`j dft wfte tec l`st tfhc kolg so`rcg.Ro, ecrcs tec efstory sfjbc tec kolg pck cjgcg (gcdl`tfjk my tec BYF)1

    http://krugman.blogs.n/http://krugman.blogs.n/
  • 8/3/2019 Studying the Issues of Gold Price Movements 1

    19/64

    Rtugyfjk tec fssucs od kolg prfbc hovchcjts

    06 od 47

    Jow, tec cjg od tec ;9s w`s ` tfhc od efke fjtcrcst r`tcs, wecrc`s tec burrcjt cjvfrojhcjt fs

    ojc od low r`tcs. Mut te`ts ` bohp`rfsoj od johfj`l r`tcs> we`t `mout rc`l r`tcs, wefbe `rcwe`t tec hogcl s`ys seoulg h`ttcr?Mc`r fj hfjg te`t we`t wc w`jt `rc cxpcbtcg rc`l r`tcs loonfjk dorw`rg, jot cx-post r`tcs

    m`scg oj p`st fjdl`tfoj `jg mojg yfclgs. @jg ujdortuj`tcly, tecrc wcrcjt `jy fjdl`tfoj-protcbtcg scburftfcs tercc gcb`gcs `ko, so wc b`jt kct ` gfrcbt rc`g oj h`rnct rc`l fjtcrcstr`tcs. Mut tecrc `rc otecr fjgfb`tors od fjdl`tfoj cxpcbt`tfojs. Ecrcs ojc c`sy bohp`rfsoj(ycs, fts ojc-yc`r fjdl`tfoj cxpcbt`tfojs vcrsus 09-yc`r mojg yfclgs> so suc hc)1

    Ro tec l`tc ;9s wcrc ` tfhc od efke r`tcs mut vcry efke fjdl`tfoj cxpcbt`tfojs, so te`t rc`l r`tcswcrc `rku`mly zcro or jck`tfvc, aust `s tecy `rc tog`y.@jg tefs `lso sukkcsts te`t h`jy pcoplc hfsrc`g te`t ;9s cxpcrfcjbc> mcb`usc efke kolg

    prfbcs tecj wcrc `ssobf`tcg wfte efke fjdl`tfoj, kolg e`s bohc to mc t`ncj `s `j fjdl`tfojfjgfb`tor, wecrc`s fts `btu`lly ` low rc`l r`tcs fjgfb`tor. L`st tfhc teosc low rc`l r`tcs e`g `

    lot to go wfte fjdl`tfoj, mut tefs tfhc tecyrc t`nfjk pl`bc fj ` gcdl`tfoj`ry or `t lc`stgfsfjdl`tfoj`ry cjvfrojhcjt.

  • 8/3/2019 Studying the Issues of Gold Price Movements 1

    20/64

    R2r` Rut`j ]`ao @lf

    =9 od 47

    Ojc otecr omscrv`tfoj1 omvfously, pcoplc weo mouket kolg `t tec pc`n od tec l`st spfnc kotm`gly murjcg. @s F pofjtcg out droh tec mckfjjfjk, tec d`bt te`t tecrcs ` dujg`hcjt`ls-m`scgstory te`t boulg cxpl`fj efke prfbcs gocsjt hc`j te`t tecrc b`jt mc ` mummlc too.Spg`tc1 F seoulg rcftcr`tc te`t M`rsny `jg Ruhhcrs m`sfb`lly gfg tefs `j`lysfs =3 yc`rs `ko,fj ` p`pcr te`t wcfrgly jcvcr brosscg hy gcsn, wfte gfddcrcjbcs fj hogclfjk str`tcky te`t

    h`nc jo gfddcrcjbc to tec dujg`hcjt`l fjsfket. @jg weflc host od tecfr p`pcr w`s bojbcrjcgwfte tec kolg-st`jg`rg cr` borrcl`tfoj mctwccj fjtcrcst r`tcs `jg tec prfbc lcvcl, tecy e`g tecrfket `j`lysfs od tec l`tc-;9s spfnc too. GcLojk kcts ft fj ` jutsecll1Oj tefs fjtcrprct`tfoj kolg fs `jg `lw`ys e`s mccj ` supcr Wrc`sury mojg1 ` vcry lojkgur`tfoj `ssct te`t fs or `t lc`st fs pcrbcfvcg to mc s`dc fj tec scjsc te`t fts prfbc gocs jottr`gc `t ` gfsboujt (guc to rfsn `jg gcd`ult prchf`) droh ` Wrc`sury mojg od tec s`hc gur`tfoj

    mut fjstc`g tr`gcs `t ` prchfuh.@jg tefs hc`js te`t ft fs gccply, gccply wrojk to tefjn od rfsfjk kolg prfbcs wecj mojg yfclgs`rc low `s sohc nfjg od syhptoh od hojct`ry cxbcss.

    ettp1//nrukh`j.mloks.jytfhcs.boh/=900/96/94/trc`surfcs -tfps-`jg-kolg-wojnfse/

    Wec Bojsbfcjbc od @ Lfmcr`l1 Wrc`surfcs, WFYR, `jg Kolg ([ojnfse)My Y`ul Nrukh`jRcptchmcr 4, =900, 6105 ph

    Vcs, fts 7129 @H wecrc F `h. F doujg hyscld wfgc `w`nc, tefjnfjk `mout kolg prfbcs. Voukot ` promlch wfte te`t?Fj `sscssfjk cbojohfb prospcbts sfjbc tec dfj`jbf`l brfsfs od =995, tecrc e`vc mccj two nfjgsod pcoplc1 pcoplc weo gfvfgc pcoplc fjto two nfjgs `jg pcoplc weo gojt fjdl`tfojfst`s `jggcdl`tfojfst`s. Wec fjdl`tfojfst`s loon `t mugkct gcdfbfts `jg hojct`ry m`sc, `jg scc scvcrc

    fjdl`tfoj `jg so`rfjk fjtcrcst r`tcs `s tec omvfous outbohc> tec gcdl`tfojfst`s s`y, ecy, wcrcfj ` lfqufgfty tr`p, so hojct`ry m`sc fs stcrflc `jg mugkct gcdfbfts `rc aust so`nfjk up sohc mutjot `ll od tec worlgs cxbcss s`vfjk.F `h, od boursc, ` mfk gcdl`tfojfst`, `jg `s F scc ft rcborg low fjtcrcst r`tcs strojkly vfjgfb`tchy posftfoj. @s F lfnc to pofjt out, fd youg mclfcvcg tec fjdl`tfojfst`s `t tec [`ll RtrcctAourj`l `jg clscwecrc, you woulg e`vc lost ` lot od hojcy.Mut we`t `mout kolg? @s sohc rc`gcrs `jg borrcspojgcjts lovc to pofjt out, you woulg e`vch`gc ` lot od hojcy fd youg mouket kolg c`rly fj tefs hcss. Ro gocsjt te`t vfjgfb`tc tecfjdl`tfojfst`s, to sohc cxtcjt?Hy usu`l rcspojsc e`s mccj te`t F e`vc jo fgc` we`t grfvcs tec prfbc od kolg, to s`y te`t fts `h`rnct grfvcj my eo`rgfjk fj @sf`, Klcjj Mcbn dollowcrs, we`tcvcr. Mut h`ymc Fvc mccj too

    dlfp ecrc. [ey jot tefjn `mout we`t `btu`lly seoulg mc grfvfjk kolg prfbcs? @jg F hc`j tefjn`mout ft, r`tecr te`j kofjk dor slok`js `mout fjdl`tfoj, gcm`scg burrcjbfcs, `jg `ll te`t.[cll, Fvc mccj tefjnfjk `mout ft `jg tec `jswcr surprfscg hc1 so`rfjk kolg prfbcs h`y mcquftc bojsfstcjt wfte ` gcdl`tfojfst` story `mout tec cbojohy.ON, eow go wc tefjn `mout kolg prfbcs? [cll, hy st`rtfjk pofjt fs tec olg mut vcry dfjc`j`lysfs my Ecjgcrsoj `jg R`l`jt (pgd), wefbe w`s `btu`lly tec fjspfr`tfoj dor hy dfrst koog

    p`pcr, oj burrcjby brfscs. E-R sukkcstcg te`t wc st`rt my hogclfjk kolg `s `j cxe`ustfmlcrcsourbc sumacbt to Eotcllfjk prfbfjk.Ecrcs eow ft worns. Fh`kfjc te`t tecrcs ` dfxcg stobn od kolg `v`fl`mlc rfket jow, `jg te`tovcr tfhc tefs stobn kr`gu`lly gfs`ppc`rs fjto rc`l-worlg uscs lfnc gcjtfstry. (Vcs, kolg kctshfjcg, `jg tecrcs ` horc or lcss pcrpctu`l gch`jg dor kolg te`t aust sfts tecrc> jcvcr hfjg

    dor jow). Wec r`tc `t wefbe kolg gfs`ppc`rs fjto tccte tec dlow gch`jg dor kolg, fj tojspcr yc`r gcpcjgs oj fts rc`l prfbc1

    http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/09/06/treasurieshttp://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/09/06/treasuries
  • 8/3/2019 Studying the Issues of Gold Price Movements 1

    21/64

    Rtugyfjk tec fssucs od kolg prfbc hovchcjts

    =0 od 47

    Brubf`lly, `t lc`st dor tr`bt`mflfty, tecrc fs ` beonc prfbc ` prfbc `t wefbe dlow gch`jgkocs to zcro. @s wcll scc jcxt, tefs prfbc eclps tfc gowj tec prfbc p`te.

    Ro we`t gctcrhfjcs tec prfbc od kolg `t `jy kfvcj pofjt fj tfhc? Eotcllfjk hogcls s`y te`tpcoplc `rc wfllfjk to eolg ojto `j cxe`ustfmlc rcsourbcs mcb`usc tecy `rc rcw`rgcg wfte `rfsfjk prfbc. @mstr`btfjk droh stor`kc bosts, tefs s`ys te`t tec rc`l prfbc hust rfsc `t ` r`tccqu`l to tec rc`l r`tc od fjtcrcst, so you kct ` prfbc p`te te`t loons lfnc tefs1Omvfously tecrc `rc h`jy sube p`tes. [efbe ojc fs borrcbt? Kfvcj r`tfoj`l cxpcbt`tfojs (F

    njow, F njow) tec `jswcr fs, tec p`te ujgcr wefbe buhul`tfvc dlow gch`jg oj te`t p`te, upto tec pofjt `t wefbe you eft tec beonc prfbc, fs aust cqu`l to tec fjftf`l stobn od kolg.

  • 8/3/2019 Studying the Issues of Gold Price Movements 1

    22/64

    R2r` Rut`j ]`ao @lf

    == od 47

    Jow `sn tec qucstfoj, we`t e`s be`jkcg rcbcjtly te`t seoulg `ddcbt tefs cquflfmrfuh p`te?@jg tec `jswcr fs omvfous1 tecrc e`s mccj ` gr`h`tfb plujkc fj rc`l fjtcrcst r`tcs, `s fjvcstorse`vc bohc to pcrbcfvc te`t tec Lcsscr Gcprcssfoj wfll gcprcss rcturjs oj fjvcsthcjt dor `lojk tfhc to bohc1

    [e`t cddcbt seoulg ` lowcr rc`l fjtcrcst r`tc e`vc oj tec Eotcllfjk p`te? Wec `jswcr fs te`t ftseoulg kct dl`ttcr1 fjvcstors jccg lcss prfbc `pprcbf`tfoj to e`vc `j fjbcjtfvc to eolg kolg.

  • 8/3/2019 Studying the Issues of Gold Price Movements 1

    23/64

    Rtugyfjk tec fssucs od kolg prfbc hovchcjts

    =2 od 47

    Mut fd tec prfbc p`te fs kofjk to mc dl`ttcr weflc stfll lc`gfjk to bojsuhptfoj od tec cxfstfjkstobn `jg jo horc my tec tfhc ft efts tec beonc prfbc, fts kofjk to e`vc to st`rt droh `efkecr fjftf`l lcvcl. Ro tec be`jkc fj tec p`te seoulg loon lfnc tefs1@jg tefs s`ys te`t tec prfbc od kolg seoulg auhp fj tec seort ruj.Wec lokfb, fd you tefjn `mout ft, fs prctty fjtuftfvc1 wfte lowcr fjtcrcst r`tcs, ft h`ncs horc

    scjsc to eo`rg kolg jow `jg puse fts `btu`l usc durtecr fjto tec duturc, wefbe hc`js efkecrprfbcs fj tec seort ruj `jg tec jc`r duturc.Mut supposc tefs fs tec rfket story, or `t lc`st ` koog p`rt od tec story, od kolg prfbcs. Fd so, aust`mout cvcrytefjk you rc`g `mout we`t kolg prfbcs hc`j fs wrojk.Dor tefs fs csscjtf`lly ` rc`l story `mout kolg, fj wefbe tec prfbc e`s rfscj mcb`usc cxpcbtcgrcturjs oj otecr fjvcsthcjts e`vc d`llcj> ft fs jot, rcpc`t jot, ` story `mout fjdl`tfojcxpcbt`tfojs. Jot ojly `rc surkfjk kolg prfbcs jot ` sfkj od scvcrc fjdl`tfoj aust `roujg tecborjcr, tecyrc `btu`lly tec rcsult od ` pcrsfstcjtly gcprcsscg cbojohy stubn fj ` lfqufgfty tr`p

    `j cbojohy te`t m`sfb`lly d`bcs tec terc`t od A`p`jcsc-stylc gcdl`tfoj, jot [cfh`r-stylcfjdl`tfoj. Ro pcoplc weo mouket kolg mcb`usc tecy mclfcvcg te`t fjdl`tfoj w`s `roujg tecborjcr wcrc rfket dor tec wrojk rc`sojs.

    @jg fd you vfcw tec kolg story `s mcfjk m`sfb`lly `mout rc`l fjtcrcst r`tcs, sohctefjk clscdollows j`hcly, te`t e`vfjk ` kolg st`jg`rg rfket jow woulg mc gccply gcdl`tfoj`ry. Wecrc`l prfbc od kolg w`jts to rfsc> fd you try to pck tec johfj`l prfbc lcvcl to kolg, te`t b`jojly e`ppcj terouke scvcrc gcdl`tfoj.ON, jojc od tefs jcbcss`rfly rcacbts otecr eypotecscs `mout kolg> fj p`rtfbul`r, tecrc boulg mc` mummlc ovcr `jg `movc tec Eotcllfjk `spcbt. Mut tec brubf`l hcss`kc fs, F tefjn, rfket1 Fd you

    mclfcvc te`t kolg prfbcs `rc sfkj`lfjk `j fjdl`tfoj`ry terc`t, F e`vc to tcll you, F go jot tefjnte`t prfbc hc`js we`t you tefjn ft hc`js.Spg`tc1 L`rry Ruhhcrs gfrcbts hc to ` 0655 p`pcr ec wrotc wfte ]omcrt M`rsny (pgd) wfte `sfhfl`r techc, ettp1//www.k`t`.ork/dflcs/kfmsoj.pgd, `lteouke `pplfcg to tec kolg st`jg`rg cr`r`tecr te`j rcbcjt cvcjts.

    ettp1//www.jytfhcs.boh/=900/95/=9/your-hojcy/tec-efggcj-g`jkcrs-fj-s`dc-e`vcjs.ethl?p`kcw`jtcg8`ll

    [c`lte H`ttcrsWec Efggcj G`jkcrs Fj R`dc E`vcjsMy Y`ul Rullfv`j@ukust 06, =900

    @l`j Q`lc dor Wec Jcw Vorn Wfhcs1 Kolg gocsj't e`vc `jy fjtrfjsfb v`luc, s`fg L`rry H.

    Clnfj, prcsfgcjt od tec Y`lfs`gcs Eugsoj Dfj`jbf`l Kroup.Y`ul Rullfv`j wrftcs `mout str`tckfcs te`t tec wc`ltey usc to h`j`kc tecfr hojcy `jg tecfrovcr`ll wcll-mcfjk.

    @R Curopcs gcmt troumlcs fjtcjsfdfcg c`rlfcr tefs hojte `jg Sjftcg Rt`tcs gcmt w`sgowjkr`gcg, h`jy pcoplc rusecg fjto kolg `jg Wrc`sury scburftfcs `s ` s`dc e`vcj. Ft w`s tecl`tcst sfkj te`t fj ujbcrt`fj tfhcs, fjvcstors `bt fj w`ys te`t b`j eurt tech fj tec lojk ruj.Wecy dlcg tec pcrbcfvcg rfsn od d`llfjk stobn prfbcs rfket fjto tec `ssurcg rfsn od ovcrv`lucg`sscts, s`fg K. Rbott Blchojs, befcd fjvcsthcjt str`tckfst dor tec wc`lte h`j`kchcjtgfvfsfoj `t Mrowj Mrotecrs E`rrfh`j.[e`t grovc teosc gcbfsfojs w`s jot lokfb mut dc`r dc`r od ` rcpc`t od Rcptchmcr =995. @jg

    te`t dc`r h`y ojly e`vc fjtcjsfdfcg wecj h`rncts groppcg `k`fj l`tc tefs wccn, scjgfjkyfclgs oj 09-yc`r Wrc`sury jotcs to rcborg lows `jg tec prfbc od kolg `movc $0,599 `j oujbc.

    http://www.gata.org/files/gibson.pdfhttp://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/20/yourhttp://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/20/yourhttp://www.gata.org/files/gibson.pdf
  • 8/3/2019 Studying the Issues of Gold Price Movements 1

    24/64

    R2r` Rut`j ]`ao @lf

    =7 od 47

    Cvcj fd tec dc`r fs ujgcrst`jg`mlc, eowcvcr, `btfjk oj ft h`y jot mc tec mcst lojk-tcrhstr`tcky.Fd you wcrc rfket `mout tec tfhfjk gcbfsfoj to kct out, yourc kofjk to e`vc to mc rfket `k`fj`mout wecj to kct m`bn fj, s`fg Aoscpe [. Rp`g`, h`j`kfjk gfrcbtor `t Ruhhft Dfj`jbf`l]csourbcs fj Y`rsfpp`jy, J.A. Cvcj prodcssfoj`ls e`vc troumlc gofjk ft. Fd te`ts jot kofjk to

    mc your str`tcky, tecj gojt go ft ojbc.Mut jow te`t pcoplc e`vc gojc ft ojbc, we`t `rc tec rfsns od eolgfjk oj to l`rkc posftfojs fjkolg `jg Wrc`surfcs?W]C@RS]FCR [eflc tec cbojohy h`y scch m`g to h`jy pcoplc, ft woulg jot t`nc hubefhprovchcjt dor fjvcstors to losc hojcy qufbnly oj tecfr fjvcsthcjt fj Wrc`sury mojgs.@ wccn `jg ` e`ld `ko, tec 09-yc`r Wrc`sury jotc w`s yfclgfjk ojly =.09 pcrbcjt, `dtcrRt`jg`rg & Yoors gowjkr`gcg tec Sjftcg Rt`tcs brcgft r`tfjk. Rfjbc tec yfclg od ` mojghovcs fj tec opposftc gfrcbtfoj od fts prfbc, tefs hc`jt gch`jg dor 09-yc`r Wrc`surfcs w`sefke.Fd ovcr tec jcxt sfx hojtes, tec yfclg wcrc to hovc up `jotecr e`ld od ` pcrbcjt`kc pofjt to=.49 pcrbcjt, eowcvcr, fjvcstors owjfjk teosc mojgs woulg e`vc ` jck`tfvc 4.=3 pcrbcjt

    rcturj, s`fg M`rm`r` ]cfje`rg, befcd fjvcsthcjt str`tckfst `t Brcgft Rufssc Yrfv`tc M`jnfjk fjJcw Vorn. Fd tec yfclg burvc wcrc to hovc up ` dull pcrbcjt`kc pofjt gurfjk te`t tfhc, tecloss woulg mc 07 pcrbcjt.Rec s`fg sube ` qufbn fjbrc`sc boulg c`sfly e`ppcj, `s ft gfg droh Obtomcr =909 to A`ju`ry=900 wecj tec Dcgcr`l ]cscrvc mck`j fts scbojg roujg od l`rkc-sb`lc purbe`scs odkovcrjhcjt gcmt, tec prokr`h njowj `s qu`jtft`tfvc c`sfjk.

    Jow, plcjty od pcoplc muy mojgs wfte tec fjtcjtfoj od eolgfjk tech ujtfl h`turfty. Fj gofjkte`t, ft woulg scch te`t tecy woulg c`rj ` rcturj od =.09 pcrbcjt. Mut tecy woulg `btu`lly losc0.3 pcrbcjt, wecj tec host rcbcjt fjdl`tfoj r`tc od 2.4 pcrbcjt fs d`btorcg fj.We`ts `ssuhfjk fjdl`tfoj gocsjt rfsc, Hs. ]cfje`rg s`fg. ]fket jow, yourc mcttfjkfjdl`tfoj wfll d`ll mclow =.09 pcrbcjt. Vourc mcttfjk `k`fjst efstory mcb`usc fjdl`tfoj e`s

    mccj `roujg 2 to 7 pcrbcjt efstorfb`lly.Wefs fs jot tec mrfketcst pfbturc dor pcoplc weo `ggcg to tecfr `llob`tfoj od Wrc`sury mojgs.Mut h`jy dclt ft w`s tec ojly s`dc pl`bc.A. G. Hojtkohcry, ` h`j`kfjk gfrcbtor `t B`jtcrmury Bojsultfjk, `j fjvcsthcjt bojsultfjkdfrh fj Jcwport Mc`be, B`lfd., s`fg ec e`g ` blfcjt weo wrcstlcg wfte wecrc to put $3 hfllfojte`t ec jccgcg to nccp s`dc. Wec blfcjt beosc ` tercc-hojte Wrc`sury jotc, cvcj teouke tecfjtcrcst w`s ojly $0,999.Wecrc w`s `t lc`st sohc lokfb mcefjg tefs. Host pcoplc weo mouket Wrc`surfcs wcrc`m`jgojfjk tecfr fjvcsthcjt str`tcky, `jg wc`lte `gvfscrs s`y te`t fs horc troumlfjk te`j

    p`ltry rcturjs.

    Wec rfsn od be`jkfjk your str`tcky wecj fts mcfjk tcstcg `s opposcg to be`jkfjk ft wecj ftsjot mcfjk tcstcg fs you rfsn gcr`flfjk your lojk-tcrh fjvcsthcjt pl`j, s`fg Krckk Dfsecr,prcsfgcjt `jg befcd fjvcsthcjt oddfbcr od Kcrstcfj Dfsecr, ` wc`lte h`j`kchcjt dfrh fj JcwVorn.Ro we`t seoulg jcrvous fjvcstors e`vc gojc? Rcllfjk Wrc`sury mojgs wecj cvcryojc clscw`s muyfjk tech woulg e`vc mccj ` st`rt. Mut te`t hfket e`vc t`ncj too hube gfsbfplfjc.Hovfjk to b`se w`s tec top optfoj mcb`usc `t lc`st fjvcstors woulg e`vc hojcy rc`gy wecjtecy dclt bohdort`mlc rcturjfjk to tec h`rncts.KOLG Fjvcstors fj kolg `rc ` gfddcrcjt mrccg. Wecy odtcj e`vc ` p`ssfoj dor tec hct`l te`tkocs mcyojg rcturjs. @jg tecy `rc jot kofjk to mc sw`ycg my `rkuhcjts te`t kolg, eovcrfjk`roujg $0,599 `j oujbc, fs ovcrv`lucg.

    [ecj you muy kolg yourc s`yfjk jotefjk fs kofjk to worn `jg cvcrytefjk fs kofjk to st`yrfgfbulous, s`fg H`bnfj Yulsfdcr, vfbc be`frh`j `jg befcd fjvcsthcjt oddfbcr od Dfgubf`ry

  • 8/3/2019 Studying the Issues of Gold Price Movements 1

    25/64

    Rtugyfjk tec fssucs od kolg prfbc hovchcjts

    =3 od 47

    Wrust Fjtcrj`tfoj`l fj Jcw Vorn. Wecrc fs ` d`fr boeort weo mclfcvcs tefs fj ` tecolokfb`lscjsc, mut F mclfcvc fts ujrc`soj`mlc kfvcj tec efstory od tec Sjftcg Rt`tcs.@s dor tec jojmclfcvcrs weo pflcg fjto kolg, tecy jccg to tefjn pr`btfb`lly jow. Ojly `mout00 pcrbcjt od kolg e`s `j fjgustrf`l usc. [eflc kolg b`j kct lost or murfcg, ft gocs jot kct uscgup lfnc ofl or j`tur`l k`s. @jg fts `btu`l bost fs mctwccj ` tefrg `jg e`ld od wecrc ft fs tr`gfjk.

    G`j Gcjmow, bo-h`j`kcr od tec SR@@ Yrcbfous Hct`ls `jg Hfjcr`ls Dujg fj R`j @jtojfo,s`fg ft bost `mout $499 to progubc `j oujbc od kolg, mut te`t rfscs to `mout $0,999 wecj `lltec bosts od hfjfjk `rc d`btorcg fj.Vct ` mfkkcr rfsn h`y bohc droh cxbe`jkc-tr`gcg dujgs dor kolg. [eflc tecy lct sh`llfjvcstors muy kolg c`sfly tec prfbc od ojc se`rc od tec KLG cxbe`jkc tr`gc dujg fs roukelyojc-tcjte tec prfbc od `j oujbc od kolg te`t s`hc c`sc od muyfjk hc`js fjvcstors b`j aust`s qufbnly scll tecfr se`rcs fj ` p`jfb.

    Jo ojc F sponc to woulg vcjturc ` kucss `s to eow efke kolg woulg rfsc mcdorc ft eft fts pc`n.Mut host strcsscg te`t pcoplc dorkot te`t kolgs v`luc w`s grfvcj my scjtfhcjt.Kolg gocsjt e`vc `jy fjtrfjsfb v`luc, s`fg L`rry H. Clnfj, prcsfgcjt od tec Y`lfs`gcsEugsoj Dfj`jbf`l Kroup fj Rb`rsg`lc, J.V. Fts tefs cr`s w`hpuh. @t ojc pofjt you boulg

    muy H`je`tt`j dor mc`gs.(Hr. Clnfj s`fg we`t motecrcg efh tec host `mout fjvcstfjk fj kolg w`s eow frr`tfoj`l ft w`s,ujlfnc muyfjk ` mluc-befp stobn weosc v`luc rfscs `jg d`lls m`scg oj we`t tec bohp`jy

    progubcs.)We`t s`fg, e`vfjk kolg fj ` portdolfo fs stfll ` koog muddcr `k`fjst swfjks fj otecr h`rncts. Hr.Dfsecr b`lbul`tcg te`t ovcr ` 72-yc`r pcrfog cjgfjk fj Aujc =900, tec `vcr`kc `jju`l fjbrc`scdor kolg, `bboujtfjk dor fjdl`tfoj, w`s 2.5= pcrbcjt bohp`rcg wfte 7.6= pcrbcjt dor tecRt`jg`rg & Yoors 399-stobn fjgcx. Kolg, eowcvcr, w`s =5 pcrbcjt horc vol`tflc.Wec shootecr tec rfgc, tec horc lfncly tec fjvcstor fs kofjk to st`y fj efs str`tcky, Hr.Dfsecr s`fg. We`t progubcs ` mcttcr rcsult.Ec s`fg te`t droh tec pcrspcbtfvcs od mote rcturj `jg vol`tflfty, ` mcttcr str`tcky woulg e`vc

    mccj to put 09 pcrbcjt fj kolg `jg splft tec rcst 49-79 mctwccj stobns `jg dfvc-yc`r Wrc`surymojgs. ]cm`l`jbfjk tec portdolfo to h`fjt`fj teosc r`tfos woulg e`vc hc`jt `j `vcr`kc`jju`l rcturj od 7.44 pcrbcjt, wfte horc te`j e`ld od tec vol`tflfty od kolg `lojc.Dor teosc weo dlcg to kolg `jg Wrc`surfcs, tec e`rgcst p`rt wfll mc gcbfgfjk wecj to kct m`bnfjto otecr scburftfcs. Wec mcst w`y fj ujbcrt`fj h`rncts h`y mc to ko slowly fj sh`ll beujns

    ` pr`btfbc njowj `s goll`r-bost `vcr`kfjk.Wecrc `rc rc`l `jg psybeolokfb`l mcjcdfts to ft, mcb`usc kcttfjk sohcojc to t`nc te`t dfrststcp fs tec e`rgcst, s`fg Berfstopecr [oldc, befcd fjvcsthcjt oddfbcr dor tec prfv`tc m`jn `jgfjvcsthcjt kroup `t M`jn od @hcrfb`. [fte ` dfvc-yc`r tfhc eorfzoj, ft h`ncs ` mfkgfddcrcjbc. Vou hfket kct ojc od teosc wfbncg mfk gowj g`ys you boulg mcjcdft droh. Mut fd

    you e`vc ` 29-yc`r tfhc eorfzoj ft gocsjt h`ttcr.Od boursc, fd pcoplc e`g teouket oj sube ` lojk tfhc eorfzoj tecy hfket jot e`vc rusecg tomuy kolg `jg Wrc`surfcs fj tec dfrst pl`bc.@ vcrsfoj od tefs `rtfblc `ppc`rcg fj prfjt oj @ukust =9, =900, oj p`kc M3 od tec Jcw Vorncgftfoj wfte tec ec`glfjc1 Wec Efggcj G`jkcrs Fj R`dc E`vcjs.

    ettp1//www.jytfhcs.boh/=900/95/=9/worlg/`hcrfb`s/=9mrfcds -Kuy`j`.ethl

    Kuy`j`1 Brfhc [`vc Jc`r Kolg HfjcsMy Wec @ssobf`tcg Yrcss@ukust 06, =900

    http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/20/world/americas/20briefshttp://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/20/world/americas/20briefs
  • 8/3/2019 Studying the Issues of Gold Price Movements 1

    26/64

    R2r` Rut`j ]`ao @lf

    =4 od 47

    Wec polfbc fj Kuy`j` s`y rcborg prfbcs dor kolg e`vc lcg to nfllfjks, rommcrfcs `jg otecrbrfhcs `bross tec boujtry. Wec polfbc bohhfssfojcr, Ecjry Krccjc, s`fg Drfg`y te`t tec =4nfllfjks tefs yc`r fj kolg hfjcs jc`r tec morgcrs wfte Tcjczucl` `jg Mr`zfl `rc lfjncg tosurkfjk kolg prfbcs. Wec host rcbcjt sl`yfjks obburrcg oj Weursg`y. Yolfbc s`fg ` hfjcr w`sseot to gc`te `jg efs soj w`s mc`tcj `jg murfcg `lfvc wfte tec eclp od `j cxb`v`tor. Wec prfbc

    od kolg eft ` jcw efke od jc`rly $0,529 `j oujbc oj Weursg`y.@ vcrsfoj od tefs mrfcd `ppc`rcg fj prfjt oj @ukust =9, =900, oj p`kc @; od tec Jcw Vorncgftfoj wfte tec ec`glfjc1 Kuy`j`1 Brfhc [`vc Jc`r Kolg Hfjcs.

    ettp1//mloks.wsa.boh/sourbc/=900/95/06/kolg -sefjcs-oj-`jg-oj-`jg-oj/

    Kolg Refjcs Oj `jg Oj `jg OjMy @jgrc` Eottcr]cutcrs@ukust 06, =900, 019= YH KHW

    Fts gfddfbult nccpfjk up wfte tec `bbclcr`tfjk strcjkte od kolg.Wec prcbfous hct`ls stcll`r k`fjs h`nc ft tec mcst pcrdorhfjk bohhogfty h`rnct od =900,rfsfjk jc`rly 77% sfjbc tec st`rt od tec yc`r `jg ` weoppfjk 0;% tefs hojte `lojc. @t tefsr`tc, b`lls dor spot prfbcs od $=,999 ` troy oujbc my yc`r-cjg `ppc`r `t mcst bojscrv`tfvc, `jg`t worst, pl`fj sflly.Wec h`rnct pc`ncg tefs horjfjk `movc $0,5;5/oz, r`tbectfjk up jcw efkes `s tec dfj`jbf`lh`rncts rch`fj hfrcg fj dc`r, od wefbe kolg fs tec burrcjby. Wec prcbfous hct`l fs p`ssfjkhflcstojcs `t `j `l`rhfjk p`bc, e`vfjk wefzzcg p`st $0,399/oz, $0,499/oz `jg $0,;99/oz

    mcdorc t`nfjk out $0,599 wfte `pp`rcjt c`sc. @stoujgfjk dor ` h`rnct te`t scchcg stubn`roujg $0,=99 ` yc`r-`ko `jg ojly hovcg `movc $0,999/oz dor tec dfrst tfhc two yc`rs `ko.

    Wec $0,699/oz h`rn fsjt d`r `w`y.Vct weflc tec h`bro-cbojohfb outloon st`ys kloohy, kolgs mull-ruj loons sct to bojtfjucuj`m`tcg. Fjvcstors klom`lly `rc krowfjk prokrcssfvcly horc bojvfjbcg te`t tec hojct`ry `jgdfsb`l `uteorftfcs b`j kct jotefjk rfket `jg cvcrytefjk wrojk fj tecfr `ttchpts to dfx tec dfsb`l

    promlchs fj tec curo-zojc `jg S.R. cbojohfcs.We`t spclls ` ruse my snfttfse fjvcstors fjto s`dcr `sscts lfnc kolg, prom`mly `t `j fjtcjsfdyfjk

    p`bc.Mut, mcw`rc. Wec tcrh p`r`molfb fs mcfjk uscg to gcsbrfmc kolgs k`fjs wfte fjbrc`sfjkdrcqucjby`jg fd efstory e`s t`uket us `jy lcssojs, ojc od tech fs te`t ` p`r`molfb rfsctypfb`lly bulhfj`tcs fj ` br`se. Wec qucstfoj fs, wecj?

    ettp1//mloks.wsa.boh/sourbc/=900/95/05/kolg -`t-rcborg-prfbcs-yct-gch`jg-e`s-sluhpcg/

    Kolg `t ]cborg Yrfbcs, Vct Gch`jg E`s Rluhpcg

    My ]ef`jjoj EoylcMloohmcrk@ukust 05, =900, 0192 YH KHW

    Klom`l gch`jg dor kolg, te`t g`rlfjk od tec fjvcstor worlg, sluhpcg 0;% l`st qu`rtcr.Vcs, gcspftc `ll tec eypc `roujg tec klfttcry, kolgcj hct`l, tec tot`l tojj`kc purbe`scg`roujg tec worlg slfg to 606.5 hctrfb tojs, droh 0,09;.9 tojs dor tec s`hc pcrfog ` yc`rc`rlfcr.@jgh`ymc surprfsfjklyfts jot `ll gowj to tec sny efke prfbcs.

    http://blogs.wsj.com/source/2011/08/19/goldhttp://blogs.wsj.com/source/2011/08/18/goldhttp://blogs.wsj.com/source/2011/08/18/goldhttp://blogs.wsj.com/source/2011/08/19/gold
  • 8/3/2019 Studying the Issues of Gold Price Movements 1

    27/64

    Rtugyfjk tec fssucs od kolg prfbc hovchcjts

    =; od 47

    Wecrc w`s ojc ncy d`btor te`t grovc gowj tec tojj`kc od kolg mouket wecj bohp`rcg wftetec s`hc hojtes od l`st yc`r CWYs, or cxbe`jkc-tr`gcg progubts.Gch`jg dor CWYs w`s gowj ` h`ssfvc 5=% wecj bohp`rcg wfte scbojg qu`rtcr =909 lcvcls.Y`rt od tefs w`s gowj to ec`vy lfqufg`tfoj `bross tecsc sorts od dfj`jbf`l progubts c`rlfcr fjtec yc`r `s fjvcstors b`secg fj oj tec hct`ls rcborg-mrc`nfjk rujwfte kolg e`vfjk r`llfcg

    horc te`j 09% oj tec st`rt od tec yc`r to scvcr`l `ll-tfhc mcsts my tec st`rt od H`y.Mut l`rkcly ft w`s `j fj`mflfty dor tecsc dujgs to h`tbe tec nfjg od lcvcls od fjvcsthcjtrcborgcg fj tec scbojg qu`rtcr od =909, wecj tec scbojg efkecst qu`rtcrly fjdlows oj rcborgwcrc postcg.CWY gch`jg w`s ` eukc =60.4 tojs fj te`t qu`rtcr od l`st yc`r `s dc`rs ovcr tec krowfjk curozojc gcmt brfsfs sp`rncg ` dlurry od drcse fjvcsthcjt fj tec ycllow hct`l, pusefjk ft to we`twcrc drcse rcborg efkes `t tec tfhc.L`st qu`rtcr gch`jg w`s aust 30.; tojs. [eflc hube, hube lowcr, tefs w`s stfll vcry sfzc`mlc,teouke, wecj bohp`rcg wfte tec ==.2 tojs od purbe`scs fj 7P =909 `jg tec 4=.0 tojs od s`lcsfj 0P od tefs yc`r.Sltfh`tcly tec d`ll ^fj tot`l klom`l gch`jgX w`s ` dujbtfoj od CWY tojj`kcs, wefbe wcrc

    quftc vol`tflc l`st qu`rtcr, s`fg [KB h`j`kfjk gfrcbtor od fjvcsthcjt H`rbus Krumm.Outsfgc od CWYs, otecr scbtors od gch`jg `rc loonfjk vcry ec`ltey fjgccg s`ys tec [orlgKolg Boujbflgcspftc tec jc`r-rcborg efke prfbcs.Ovcr`ll, tec qu`rtcr w`sjt ` m`g ojc, Hr. Krumm s`fg.Rcbojg-qu`rtcr acwclry gch`jg w`s up 4%, tcbejoloky gch`jg rosc =%, `jg m`r `jg bofjgch`jg fjbrc`scg my 6%.Bcjtr`l m`jn kolg muyfjk qu`gruplcg `s oddfbf`ls fj chcrkfjk h`rncts sbr`hmlcg to gfvcrsfdytecfr rcscrvc eolgfjks.@ll quftc rc`soj`mlc dfkurcs kfvcj tec hct`ls prfbc mronc $0,399 `j oujbc fj tec qu`rtcr, aust` yc`r `dtcr tr`gfjk bloscr to $0,099 `j oujbc.@s lojk `s teosc scbtors eolg up, tecrc boulg mc sohc quftc strojk dfkurcs postcg fj tecscbojg e`ld od tec yc`r, wfte tec tr`acbtory od CWD gch`jg so d`r tefs qu`rtcr loonfjk vcry

    prohfsfjk, Hr. Krumm s`ys.Fj tec worlgs l`rkcst kolg-m`bncg dujg, RYG] Kolg Wrust, eolgfjks `rc jow `t 0,=;= tojs,up droh aust 0,=95 tojs `t tec cjg od Aujc.Ro d`r fj 2P wc e`vc sccj tec scbojg krc`t Curopc`j brcgft brfsfs, `jg tec S.R. brcgftgowjkr`gc, so wc wfll cxpcbt to scc sohc strojk gch`jg wecj tec jcxt dfkurcs bohc out,ec s`ys.

    ettp1//www.jytfhcs.boh/=900/95/04/musfjcss/klom`l/kolg -ruse-mcbnojs-fj-`ustr`lf`j-outm`bn.ethl?p`kcw`jtcg8`ll

    Kolg Dcvcr Krfppfjk tec @ustr`lf`j Outm`bnMy H`tt Rfckcl@ukust 03, =900

    RVGJCV, @ustr`lf` Dour yc`rs `ko, H`rbo Jcro w`s oj top od tec worlg. Ec w`s c`rjfjkhorc te`j $0 hfllfoj wornfjk `s ` dflh cddcbts gcsfkjcr dor sohc od tec worlgs host

    prcstfkfous gfkft`l `jfh`tfoj eouscs.Efs hfjg, eowcvcr, w`s clscwecrc.Hr. Jcro, 79, w`s fjbrc`sfjkly spcjgfjk efs oddfbc eours porfjk ovcr [cm sftcs dor `jytefjkec boulg dfjg `mout `j ujlfncly sumacbt1 kolg. Lfnc Euhpercy Mok`rts be`r`btcr fj tec

    bl`ssfb 0675 dflh Wec Wrc`surc od tec Rfcrr` H`grc, ec rc`lfzcs jow, ec w`s gcvclopfjk `

    http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/16/business/global/goldhttp://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/16/business/global/gold
  • 8/3/2019 Studying the Issues of Gold Price Movements 1

    28/64

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    progubcg =44 tojs `t ` v`luc od 0= mfllfoj @ustr`lf`j goll`rs ($0=.7= mfllfoj) fj =909, tecbojsultfjk dfrh Rurmftoj @ssobf`tcs s`fg fj fts l`tcst survcy od tec @ustr`lf`j kolg hfjfjkfjgustry. My bohp`rfsoj, tec Sjftcg Rt`tcs progubcg =79 tojs fj =909.

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