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The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology Studying fire weather with ACCESS Robert Fawcett CAWCR High Impact Weather Research 14 May 2013 www.cawcr.gov.au
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Studying fire weather with ACCESS - BFCRC Legacy · Studying fire weather with ACCESS Robert Fawcett CAWCR High Impact Weather Research 14 May 2013 . The Centre for Australian Weather

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Page 1: Studying fire weather with ACCESS - BFCRC Legacy · Studying fire weather with ACCESS Robert Fawcett CAWCR High Impact Weather Research 14 May 2013 . The Centre for Australian Weather

The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

Studying fire weather with ACCESS

Robert Fawcett

CAWCR High Impact Weather Research

14 May 2013

www.cawcr.gov.au

Page 2: Studying fire weather with ACCESS - BFCRC Legacy · Studying fire weather with ACCESS Robert Fawcett CAWCR High Impact Weather Research 14 May 2013 . The Centre for Australian Weather

The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research

A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

Acknowledgements

• Co-authors

• Will Thurston, Jeff Kepert and Kevin Tory

High Impact Weather Research

Weather and Environmental Prediction

The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research

Docklands, Victoria

• The Earth System Modelling group in CAWCR

Page 3: Studying fire weather with ACCESS - BFCRC Legacy · Studying fire weather with ACCESS Robert Fawcett CAWCR High Impact Weather Research 14 May 2013 . The Centre for Australian Weather

The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research

A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

What are we trying to accomplish?

• to model the meteorology of days of significant fires (e.g., the Eyre Peninsula on 11 January 2005)

• using the Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator (ACCESS), including the UK Met Office atmospheric model

• at high resolution (0.012° latitude/longitude spacing = 1.2 km approx.)

• and very high resolution (0.004° latitude/longitude spacing = 400 metres approx.)

• EP is the second of 10 cases simulated so far

• to see which aspects of the modelled meteorology might be important for fire behaviour and to see if aspects of the observed fire behaviour can be “explained” by the meteorology

• to see which aspects of the very-high-resolution meteorology are also seen in the lower-resolution simulations

• lower resolution simulations are cheaper and faster to run, and therefore closer to operational implementation

• outputs

• meteorological grids have been provided to project partners (FIRE-DST)

• accompanying documentation (technical reports; conference presentations, posters and papers; journal papers)

Page 4: Studying fire weather with ACCESS - BFCRC Legacy · Studying fire weather with ACCESS Robert Fawcett CAWCR High Impact Weather Research 14 May 2013 . The Centre for Australian Weather

The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research

A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

Cases simulated so far …

• [4] Melbourne Dust Storm (Victoria) 8 February 1983

• [1] Blue Mountains (NSW) 25 December 2001

• Canberra (ACT) 18 January 2003

• [1] Eyre Peninsula (SA) 11 January 2005

• Boorabbin (WA) 30 December 2007

• [1,3] Black Saturday (Victoria) 7 February 2009

• [2] Margaret River (WA) 23 November 2011

• Dunalley/Tasman Peninsula (Tasmania) 4 January 2013

• Coonabarabran (NSW) 13 January 2013

• Dereel (Victoria) 28 March 2013

Some of these simulations have already been looked at in detail, others represent future work.

[1] “Official” case studies providing grids to project partners [2] Project deliverables from this case study [3] Results from this case study presented at Hobart RAF last year [4] Ash Wednesday (Victoria) 16 February 1983 being simulated by Uni. Melb. team

Page 5: Studying fire weather with ACCESS - BFCRC Legacy · Studying fire weather with ACCESS Robert Fawcett CAWCR High Impact Weather Research 14 May 2013 . The Centre for Australian Weather

The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research

A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

How do we validate the simulations?

• By comparing the simulations against

• surface observations

• one-minute and thirty-minute automatic weather station (AWS) observations as

available in the computational domains

• upper-air observations

• radiosonde and wind-profile balloon flight observations as available in the

computational domains

• radar data

• where available (minimal for EP, partial for BS)

• satellite observations

• visual, infra-red imagery

• None of these observational data are assimilated into the model

simulations, so the simulation can be validated against completely

independent data.

Page 6: Studying fire weather with ACCESS - BFCRC Legacy · Studying fire weather with ACCESS Robert Fawcett CAWCR High Impact Weather Research 14 May 2013 . The Centre for Australian Weather

The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research

A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

What aspects of the modelling can we verify?

• timing of the main wind change on 11 January 2005

• forecast maximum temperature

• forecast maximum wind speeds

• upper-level temperature and moisture

• features observed in the radar and satellite imagery if available

Source: Coroner’s report Source: NASA Earth Observatory

Page 7: Studying fire weather with ACCESS - BFCRC Legacy · Studying fire weather with ACCESS Robert Fawcett CAWCR High Impact Weather Research 14 May 2013 . The Centre for Australian Weather

The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research

A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

Primary wind change on 11 January 2005

134 135 136 137 138

-36.0

-35.0

-34.0

-33.0

Longitude

Latitu

de

Wind change isochrones every half-

hour as analysed (BoM 2005) and

simulated using at 0.012°-resolution

from 11:00 to 14:00 EDT on 11 January

2005.

Bureau of Meteorology

2005: Meteorological

report on the Wangary

and Black Tuesday Fires:

Lower Eyre Peninsula,

10-11 January 2005

Page 8: Studying fire weather with ACCESS - BFCRC Legacy · Studying fire weather with ACCESS Robert Fawcett CAWCR High Impact Weather Research 14 May 2013 . The Centre for Australian Weather

The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research

A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

Animations

Temperature (°C)

10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

1600 UTC 10 Jan to 0900 UTC 11 Jan

0230 EDT 10 Jan to 1930 EDT 11 Jan

Wind direction

N E S W N

0.004°-resolution simulation

EP EP

Page 9: Studying fire weather with ACCESS - BFCRC Legacy · Studying fire weather with ACCESS Robert Fawcett CAWCR High Impact Weather Research 14 May 2013 . The Centre for Australian Weather

The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research

A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

What have we learnt studying these wind changes?

• They come in many different flavours – e.g., rippled over water and

simpler over land – and can interact with each other

Wind direction

N E S W N

Wind direction

N E S W N

EP EP (1230 EDT) (0900 EDT)

Page 10: Studying fire weather with ACCESS - BFCRC Legacy · Studying fire weather with ACCESS Robert Fawcett CAWCR High Impact Weather Research 14 May 2013 . The Centre for Australian Weather

The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research

A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

• In fact, they can change from one type into another

What have we learnt studying these wind changes?

132 134 136 138 140

-38

-36

-34

-32

-30

Longitude (°)

La

titu

de

(°)

Cross-section moving

along the orange

arrow. Sea-level to

6,000 metres. Colours

show potential

temperature in Kelvin.

Black (grey) contours

show positive

(negative) vertical

velocity in 1.5 m/s

intervals. From the

0.012°-resolution

simulation.

(K)

EP

Longitude (°)

Ele

va

tio

n (

me

tre

s)

133°E 138°E

Page 11: Studying fire weather with ACCESS - BFCRC Legacy · Studying fire weather with ACCESS Robert Fawcett CAWCR High Impact Weather Research 14 May 2013 . The Centre for Australian Weather

The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research

A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

• In fact, they can change from one type into another

What have we learnt studying these wind changes?

132 134 136 138 140

-38

-36

-34

-32

-30

Longitude (°)

La

titu

de

(°)

Cross-section moving

along the orange

arrow. Sea-level to

6,000 metres. Colours

show potential

temperature in Kelvin.

Black (grey) contours

show positive

(negative) vertical

velocity in 1.5 m/s

intervals. From the

0.012°-resolution

simulation.

(K)

EP

Longitude (°)

Ele

va

tio

n (

me

tre

s)

133°E 138°E

Page 12: Studying fire weather with ACCESS - BFCRC Legacy · Studying fire weather with ACCESS Robert Fawcett CAWCR High Impact Weather Research 14 May 2013 . The Centre for Australian Weather

The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research

A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

What have we learnt studying these wind changes?

• The wind change is not always a straight line and can have embedded

substructures and secondary wind changes

Wind direction

N E S W N

Forest Fire Danger Index

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

BS BS 20090207 0800 UTC (1900 EDT) 20090207 0840 UTC (1940 EDT)

NSW

Vic NSW

Vic

Echuca

Echuca

embedded

vortices

Page 13: Studying fire weather with ACCESS - BFCRC Legacy · Studying fire weather with ACCESS Robert Fawcett CAWCR High Impact Weather Research 14 May 2013 . The Centre for Australian Weather

The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research

A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

What have we learnt studying these wind changes?

• The wind change can stall and generate an undular bore, with significant

consequences for fires underneath it (including nocturnal intensification of the

fire)

Wind direction

N E S W N

BS

Yarrawonga radar

Radar reflectivity

and modelled

wind direction

around the

Yarrawonga (Vic)

radar. Animation

starts at 1000

UTC (2100

EDT).

Beechworth-

Mudgegonga

fire

NSW

Vic

Echuca

Page 14: Studying fire weather with ACCESS - BFCRC Legacy · Studying fire weather with ACCESS Robert Fawcett CAWCR High Impact Weather Research 14 May 2013 . The Centre for Australian Weather

The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research

A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

What have we learnt studying these wind changes?

• Their interactions with topography and coastlines can be complicated

Wind direction

N E S W N

DU

142 144 146 148 150 152

-46

-44

-42

-40

Longitude

La

titu

de

Page 15: Studying fire weather with ACCESS - BFCRC Legacy · Studying fire weather with ACCESS Robert Fawcett CAWCR High Impact Weather Research 14 May 2013 . The Centre for Australian Weather

The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research

A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

Why is this important?

• Wind changes

• can send fires off in new directions and into previously

unburnt areas

• or blow the fire back onto a previously burnt area …

• change narrow-fronted fires into broad-fronted fires

• broad-fronted fires typically propagate faster than narrow-

fronted fires

• can be hazardous to fire-fighters and the general public

• a very large fraction of the fire deaths occur within one

hour of the wind change

• are predictable on the broad synoptic scale

• on the fine scales shown here are beyond the Bureau’s

current operational capabilities

• their prediction in research mode is possible, but the

calculation takes too long to be run in real time with

current resources

Page 16: Studying fire weather with ACCESS - BFCRC Legacy · Studying fire weather with ACCESS Robert Fawcett CAWCR High Impact Weather Research 14 May 2013 . The Centre for Australian Weather

The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

Robert Fawcett

High Impact Weather Research

Phone: 03 9669 4296

Email: [email protected]

Web: www.cawcr.gov.au

Thank you www.cawcr.gov.au

Page 17: Studying fire weather with ACCESS - BFCRC Legacy · Studying fire weather with ACCESS Robert Fawcett CAWCR High Impact Weather Research 14 May 2013 . The Centre for Australian Weather

The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research

A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

Nesting details

• The modelling begins with a

global model run. The second level

is at 0.11° resolution covering all of

Australia and surrounding waters.

Further levels of nesting

increasingly focus on the area of

interest.

• Boundaries of the third (red),

fourth (green) and fifth (blue)

nesting levels for the Black

Saturday model runs.

• Model boundaries are chosen, as

far as is possible, to avoid areas of

elevated topography.

• Comparison test runs also done

at 0.0075° (fifth level).

132 134 136 138 140

-38

-36

-34

-32

-30

Longitude (°)

La

titu

de

(°)

0.036°

0.012°

0.004°

0.0075°

approximate fire location

Page 18: Studying fire weather with ACCESS - BFCRC Legacy · Studying fire weather with ACCESS Robert Fawcett CAWCR High Impact Weather Research 14 May 2013 . The Centre for Australian Weather

The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research

A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

-20 0 20 40 601

00

05

00

20

01

00

Temperature (°C), Wind speed (m/s)

Pre

ssu

re (

hP

a)

-140 °C -120 °C -100 °C -80 °C -60 °C -40 °C -20 °C

-20 0 20 40 60

10

00

50

02

00

10

0

Temperature (°C), Wind speed (m/s)

Pre

ssu

re (

hP

a)

-140 °C -120 °C -100 °C -80 °C -60 °C -40 °C -20 °C

Above-surface data

Vertical temperature traces for Adelaide Airport at 09:30 EDT (left) and 21:30 EDT

(right) UTC (right) on 11 January 2005, from the 3600-metre resolution model runs.

Temperatures are skewed.

air

temperature

dewpoint

temperature incre

asin

g h

eig

ht

model

obs. wind

speed

09:30 EDT 21:30 EDT

Page 19: Studying fire weather with ACCESS - BFCRC Legacy · Studying fire weather with ACCESS Robert Fawcett CAWCR High Impact Weather Research 14 May 2013 . The Centre for Australian Weather

The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research

A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0

010

20

30

40

50

018012 (1200m) CEDUNAAMO (-32.13,133.698)

Days since midnight on 20050110 (LCT)

Tem

pera

ture

(°C

), W

indspeed (

m/s

)

Tmax bias: 1.75

Dewpoint temperature

Wind speed

Air temperature

Wind direction

00:00 12:00 00:00 12:00 00:00 12:00 00:00 CDT

10 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan

Surface data – Ceduna Airport T

em

pe

ratu

re (

°C),

Win

d s

pe

ed

(m

/s)

0 1

0 2

0

3

0

4

0

5

0

model

obs

obs

model

0.012°-resolution

simulation