Study: Projected trends to 2031 for the Canadian labour force

Study: Projected trends to 2031 for the Canadian labour force

Demographic Trends

The study of human population Ontario’s population will grow over the next 22

years, rising from 13.2 million on July 1, 2010 to 17.7 million by July 1, 2036.

Net migration is projected to account for 68% of all population growth in Ontario over 2010–2036, with natural increase accounting for the remaining 32%.

The number of seniors aged 65 and over is projected to more than double from 1.8 million, or 13.9 per cent of population, in 2010 to 4.1 million, or 23.4 per cent, by 2036.

Few babies; more retirees

Canada's labour force will continue growing,but there will be a slowdown in the rate of growth because of low fertility and theretirement of millions of baby boomers.

Definitions

Labour force: all individuals aged 15 years and older who work or who are looking for work. It is the pool of workers employed or available for employment in a population.

Overall participation rate: the proportion of the population aged 15 years and older actively in the labour force. It provides an indication of the relative size of the supply of labour available for the production of goods and services.

ABLE TO WORK VS. ACTUALLY WORKING

projected decline in the overall participation rate

In 2010, the participation rate was 67.0%; by 2031, it is projected to range between 59.7% and 62.6%, which would be the lowest observed since the late 1970s.

3 reasons for declining overall participation rate

This decline in the overall participation rate(AKAactual workers) is mainly due to:

the aging of the population, low fertility over the last three decades and, the steady rise in life expectancy.

Consequences of labour force changes

The expected slowdown in labour forcegrowth might have numerous consequences forthe Canadian economy and society.

What might be some consequences? Shortages: Not enough people to work! Demand for higher productivity

The Aging Workforce

There is another challenge on top of the inevitable drop in the overall participation rate of the Canadian population: the aging of the workforce.

The proportion of the labour force 55 and older is expected to reach between 18% and 20% in 2021, about double what it was during the mid-1990s.

In other words, about one worker in five (1/5) in 2021 will be aged 55 or older, compared to about one in seven (1/7) in 2005.

Challenges of having an aging workforce?

It represents a major challenge for employers in terms of managing and renewing their labour force. The increased number of older workers could also affect labour productivity in the future.

Outlook for the Canadian Labour Market

The Canadian labour market is expected toperform well over the next decade, with nowidespread labour shortages emerging

Future job openings and new job seekers

Retirements will account for a growing share ofjob openings Two main sources of job openings are: Employment growth due

to expansion demand is simply the result of new jobs being created through increased economic activity. The second source of job openings comes from workers leaving their jobs because of retirements.

Imbalances Between Labour Demand and Supply - 2011-2020

A large number of occupations that are expected to face labour shortages (excess labour demand) over the next ten years are in health, management, trades, transport and equipment and in the primary sector.

Most occupations in shortage can be found in the health sector. Higher health care needs due to population ageing will increase demand for several health care occupations to significantly higher levels. Retirements will contribute more to these shortages over the medium term than new job creation.

Shortages are projected over the next 10 years in some high-skilled occupations

Skill Types: Business, Finance and Administration OccupationsOccupations in Shortage

• Human Resources and Business Service Professionals (NOC 112), Administrative and Regulatory Occupations (NOC 122)

Skill Types: Natural and Applied Sciences and Related OccupationsOccupations in Shortage

• Other Engineers (NOC 214), Architects, Urban Planners and Land Surveyors (NOC 215), Mathematicians, Statisticians and Actuaries (NOC 216)

Skill Types: Health OccupationsOccupations in Shortage

• Managers in Health, Education, Social and Community Services (NOC 031), Physicians, Dentists and Veterinarians (NOC 311), Optometrists, Chiropractors and Other Health Diagnosing and Treating Professionals (312), Therapy and Assessment Professionals (NOC 314), Nurse Supervisors and Registered Nurses (NOC 315), Medical Technologists and Technicians (NOC 321), Assisting Occupations in Support of Health Services (NOC 341)

Skill Types: Occupations in Social Science, Education, Government Service and ReligionOccupations in Shortage

• Managers in Health, Education, Social and Community Services (NOC 041), Judges, Lawyers and Quebec Notaries (NOC 411), College and Other vocational Instructors (NOC 413), Policy and Program Officers, Researchers and Consultants (NOC 416)

Skill Types: Sales and Service OccupationsOccupations in Shortage

• Managers in Protective Services (NOC 064), Insurance and Real Estates Sales Occupations and Buyers (NOC 623), Police Officers and Firefighters (NOC 626), Other Occupations in Protective Service (NOC 646)

Skill Types: Trades Transport and Equipment Operators Occupations in Shortage

• Managers in Construction and Transportation (NOC 071)

Skill Types: Occupations Unique to Primary IndustryOccupations in Shortage

• Supervisors Logging and Forestry (NOC 821), Supervisors, Mining, Oil and Gas (NOC 822), Contractors, Operators and Supervisors in Agriculture, Horticulture and Aquaculture (NOC 825)

Labour Force by Educational Level

Two thirds of all jobs openings, from both expansion demand and retirements, will be in occupations usually requiring postsecondary education or in management

The level of educational attainment of Canada's labour force will continue to rise, albeit at a slower pace than in the past

Although the educational attainment of the labour force will continue to advance, the rate at which it does so will slow down. The baby-boomers were much more educated than their parents; their own children are also more educated than their parents, but by a narrower margin.

Most of the labour shortages are in high skilled occupations (occupations usually requiring a college or a university education, or management occupations).

Education Inflation

Over the next 10 years, more than two thirds of the 1.7 million new non-student jobs created (69.2%) are expected to be in occupations usually requiring postsecondary education (university or college) or in management.

Job creation will be weaker in lower-skilled occupations. For those usually requiring only on-the-job training, the average growth rate will be only 0.6% annually, whereas in occupations usually requiring a high school diploma, the average will be 0.9%.

What do you make of All this?

Low fertility and the retirement of millions of baby boomers will cause decline in the participation rate of the labour force.

This will have consequences for the Canadian economy and society, such as pressure on productivity and shortages in certain industries.

The aging of the workforce will also present challenges, such as managing and renewing our labour force and labour productivity in the future.

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The good news …

Employment growth is expected to be fastest in service-producing industries

More than two thirds (2/3) of all new jobs are expected to be in occupations usually requiring postsecondary education or in management

The level of educational attainment of Canada's labour force will continue to rise

Retirements will account for a growing share of job openings