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2015 Great New England Air Show Economic Impact Study
Report Prepared by: Rod Warnick, Ph.D.; Professor Hospitality and Tourism Management Department 107 Flint Lab, 90 Campus Center Way University of Massachusetts at Amherst Amherst, MA 01003-9247 [email protected] 413.545.6629 with assistance from: Tiffany Shin, Doctoral Candidate Hospitality and Tourism Management Department 107 Flint Lab, 90 Campus Center Way University of Massachusetts at Amherst Amherst, MA 01003-9247 [email protected] and Elizabeth Cartier, Doctoral Candidate Hospitality and Tourism Management Department 107 Flint Lab, 90 Campus Center Way University of Massachusetts at Amherst Amherst, MA 01003-9247 [email protected] Summer/Fall 2015
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This report was prepared by Department of Hospitality and Tourism Management faculty at the
University of Massachusetts' Department at Amherst (www.isenberg.umass.edu/htm) and graduate
students in the doctoral program.
We would like to thank The Galaxy Community Council for giving us the opportunity to
conduct this survey, complete the full report study and to provide the community with important
economic information and our students with practical and applied research opportunities.
We would also like to thank Westover Air Reserve, home to the 439th Airlift Wing under the
direction of Colonel Albert Lupenski, USAF Commander at the Westover Air Base, and various
reserve groups who supported the efforts and security for the celebration of the 75th anniversary of
the Westover Air Base and the 2015 Great New England Air Show. Westover Air Base has 2,260
Air Force reservists stationed there, 675 civilian employees who assist in running the base and also
with the GNEAS and other units, including the Army and Marine reservists, whose numbers total
1,680, who frequent and use this base. This year, it was extremely important to note the efforts of
everyone in providing a secure and safe air show under the on-going threat alerts nationwide
during this event time. In addition, it should be noted that The Galaxy Community Groups key
role in securing the e-mail addresses to conduct the detailed study helped us to increase the sample
size, keep costs low and also provide representative results. Furthermore, their assistance in
providing incentives and their patience is waiting for the report filing is duly noted and
appreciated. We are most grateful for their support through all phases of the project.
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY INTRODUCTION
Public events like air shows and fairs play a very important role in the economic and civic
structure of the communities they serve. People of all ages enjoy air shows mainly due to the
exhibits and the entertainment they provide. The influence of a well-organized air show enables
the community and the organizing groups to provide, to engage, and to attract visitors from a
broad geographic region. In recent years we have begun to measure the impact of the visitation
that contributes directly to the communitys overall economic development.
The Westover Air Reserve Base has been in operation since 1940 and played an important role
during World War II. It is the nations largest Air Force Reserve Base, and is home to the Air
Forces largest cargo aircraft, the C-5 Galaxy. More than 2,260 military US Air Force reservists
and 675 civilian workers are assigned to Westovers 439th Airlift Wing, a unit of Air Force
Reserve Command. At present, Colonel Albert Lupenski, USAF is the Commander of the 439th
Airlift Wing. The mission of the wing is to provide worldwide movement of troops, supplies,
equipment and medical patients. The 337th Airlift Squadron is the wings flying unit, and
operates the C-5. The C-5 specializes in missions involving outsized and oversized cargo that no
other aircraft can carry. In addition, approximately 1,680 Army and Marine reservists use the
Westover Air Base in a given year.
This is the second assessment of the economic impact (EI) study that measures both the
economic significance estimates (overall spending by all attendees) and the economic impact
(the new money coming into the local economy from outside the community both direct and
induced) of the GNEAS. The first EI study was conducted after the 2008 show and provides a
baseline or benchmark for comparison purposes. However, further refinements in the economic
impact study process have been implemented in this study to provide more valuable information
and to further enhance and improve the operational aspects of the show for coming years.
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Previously, the Westfield International Air Show (WIAS) EIS was conducted in 2010 was also
helpful in securing additional insights into the measurements.
Westover Air Reserve Base has been the staging location of the Great New England Air Show
and its location in Chicopee, Massachusetts makes it an attractive regional destination for nearly
all of New England and significant portions of New York, Pennsylvania and New Jersey. The
location in Chicopee affords a central location to all of the New England states near the cross
roads of Interstates 90 (east-west corridor) and 91 (north-south corridor) and this location is of
particular importance in attracting attendees and air show enthusiasts.
This economic impact study was commissioned to essentially measure the initial economic
significance and economic impact that the Great New England Air Show has on the local
economy, to compare results from the previous 2008 GNEAS EIS for benchmarking purposes,
and to continue to improve and review ways to obtain the best measurements of economic
impacts on the region for use in the future. This study also provided the opportunity to conduct a
market analysis of the attendees to the event and this year additional sub-studies were included in
the survey administration including a brand experience inventory, assessment of amenities, social
impacts study, and as assessment of the use of social media during and associated with the event.
These later studies will be part of an on-going research effort to help improve the GNEAS by
providing valuable information for future shows. These findings will be released in future
studies through the on-going research efforts of the Hospitality and Tourism graduate students
involved in this study. Furthermore, due to the method of data collection including the
registration for the event at the air show web site, we were able to also obtain information on
non-attendees, people who expressed interest but did not attend. However, the main focus of
this study is the measurement of the spending patterns and outcomes of the impact to the local
economy.
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This report focuses on how much spending and revenues were generated by the attendees at the
air show, before and after, and its impact on the community as obtained from a sample of
individuals who registered at the Great New England Air Show website for the event, from
previously complied databases of the previous 2008 GNEAS and 2010 WIAS EIS, and on-ground
intercepts of attendees where interviewers requested email addresses. These combined data bases
and the intercepts yielded 8,638 mailed surveys; 3,068 surveys were started, 309 surveys were
bounced due to expired email addresses and 2,459 were completed. Each individual respondent
was randomly assigned during the first three weeks to one of the survey parts. Over the final two
weeks of data collection two sub-studies were over-sampled including the social impacts and use
of social media sub-studies to increase response rates. The survey was emailed on Tuesday, May
19th. Follow-up reminders were emailed on Thursday, May 21st, Tuesday, May 26th, Tuesday,
June 2nd and Tuesday, June 9th. The survey ended on Sunday, June 14th, 2015.
For the purposes of this study, the samples, and a tally of each of the major sub-studies
completed and assigned, are noted as follows:
1. Economic Impact Sample 552 groups (22.4% of total responding groups) EIS Sub-Sample #1 225 groups (9.2%) & EIS Sub-Sample #2 327 groups (13.3%) 2. Brand Experience Sample 233 groups (9.5%) 3. Assessment of Amenities Sample 123 groups (5.0%) 4. Social Impacts Sample 372 groups (15.1%) 5. Use of Social Media Sample 392 groups (15.9%) 6. Did Not Attend Sample 787 groups (32.0%) Total Sampled -- 2,459 groups (100.0%)
Of the 8,638 emails sent, 309 were bounced as undeliverable, with an adjusted response rate for
the overall administration of 29.5%; and of the 4,841 emails actually opened, the adjusted
response rate was 50.8%. The study was completed through the online survey software platform
called Qualtrics. This program was employed to administer, gather and analyze the data.
MicroSoft Excel was used to clean and adjust the data results and to compute the spending
patterns both by groups and individually in the overall analysis.
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND PRESS RELEASE Contact: Rod Warnick, Ph.D.; Professor FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Tel: 413-545-6629 (Voice Mail) Email:
The Great New England Air Show helps boost the local economy, shows improvements in 2015 over the 2008 event, concludes a UMass Hospitality and Tourism Management study.
A comprehensive research study was undertaken to understand the economic impact (EI) generated and to benchmark the findings of the 2015 Great New England Air Show (GNEAS) held at Westover Air Base in Chicopee, MA for the Galaxy Community Council. This project was completed by the University of Massachusetts, Amherst, Isenberg Schools Hospitality and Tourism Management Department. The findings confirm a significant impact on the local economy, documents the changes from the previous 2008 GNEAS and completes a set of recommendations.
A team of faculty members and graduate students from the UMass Hospitality and Tourism Management Department conducted the study. Data were collected through a random assignment of registered event attendees through an online survey conducted by the team over a post-event, three-week period. The sample consisted of approximately 2,459 responses of which 522 were assigned to the economic impact assessment study.
The overall economic significance (meaning all estimated expenditures made locally) of the air show to the local Chicopee and surrounding economy is estimated to be $11.6 million. However, when local attendees were removed, the direct economic expenditures from non-locals was estimated to be $9.3 million and the direct and induced sales multiplier impact overall was estimated to be $14.9 million. This compares to an economic significance in 2008 that was $8.2 million and the direct economic impact of $12.3 million. The 2015 measures included ten (10) major spending categories with the overall group expenditures of $104.56 or $30.05 per person up from $98 per group or $26 per person in 2008. Local expenditures per group (average group size of 3.32) were estimated to be $74.19 per group or $22.35 per person while non-local expenditures (average group size 3.52) were estimated to be $118.77 per group or $33.71 per person. Locals were estimated to account for 29.9% of attendees and non-locals totaled 70.1% of attendees. Of the non-locals, day trip groups (average group size 3.55) accounted for 58.9% of attendees and overnight guests (average group size 3.38) accounted for 13.1% of attendees. Among the non-locals, day trip groups spent on average an estimated $92.80 per group while overnight guests spent an estimated $224.45 per group. Approximately 5% of all locals had visiting friends or family staying with them to attend the air show. There were some indications that they spend like non-locals for the event.
Measures of expenditures outside the region (for example to external charitable organizations for locals or travel preparation expenditures for non-locals) were also assessed in this study. Locals spent on average an estimated $9.88 per group or $2.97 per person for a total out-of-area expenditures of $331 thousand and non-locals spent on average $26.16 per group or $7.43 per person for a total out-of-area expenditures of $1.98 million. This was a new measure that was identified as spending prompted by the event outside of the area or spending near the attendees homes for non-locals and not collected in 2008 study.
Average driving distance traveled one-way by attendees was 71.5 miles, up from the average of 45 miles one-way in 2008. Overall satisfaction with the event has improved since the 2008 event. In 2015, 84% were either satisfied or very satisfied compared to 77% in 2008. Of the attendees polled, 86% indicated a high level of certainty that they would return in the next two (2) years with 66% indicated that they would definitely return. This compares to 85% who indicated with high degree of certainty and 57%who were certain to return in two years in 2008. Traffic, vendor pricing and congestion continues to be an on-going concern for the event.
This study not only benchmarked and updated the EI measures from 2008 to 2015 but also examined social impacts, brand experiences, and the use of social media. These additional studies are still under going analysis by a team of graduate student researchers at UMass. Ten (10) major recommendations were made on how to improve the event in the future based on the EI study findings.
The Hospitality and Tourism Management Department is an accredited program housed in the Isenberg School of Management with an enrollment of approximately 575 undergraduates and 12 graduate doctoral students. Students in the graduate program may complete a Ph.D. in Management in the ISOM School with a hospitality concentration. UMass Amherst, the flagship campus of the University of Massachusetts system, established in 1863, has a current enrollment of 26,360 students and over 1,180 full-time faculty members.
If you would like more information about this topic, or to schedule an interview with Rod Warnick, Ph.D., HTM Department, please call: 413-545-6629 or e-mail at [email protected].
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GNEAS 2015 HIGHLIGHTS & BENCHMARKS TO 2008 GNEAS
SECOND STUDY OF ECONOMIC IMPACT. The Westover Air Show, also now known as
the Great New England Air Show (GNEAS), is the original air show in the Western
Massachusetts area. This marks the second time the air show has been assessed for economic
significance and impact. The first economic impact (EI) study was conducted in 2008. A similar
study was conducted at the Westfield International Air Show (WIAS) in 2010.
VOLUNTEER INVOLVEMENT. The Westover Air Reserve Base employs approximately
1,200 individuals of whom many are actively involved in staging and assisting the GNEAS. An
additional estimated 475 volunteers were involved in the air show execution in 2015.
ESTIMATED ATTENDANCE. The 2015 Great New England Air Show attracted an
estimated 375,475 attendees over a two-day period of May 16 and 17, 2015 with a press day and
field event on the preceding Friday, May 15, 2015. This compares to the 2008 Great New
England Air Show that attracted an estimated total of 345,000 people over two days in
September 2008. All attendees estimates were compiled by the Westover Air Show staff and
volunteers from the Galaxy Community Group. This year the attendance estimate was found to
be more accurate due to security clearance procedures through gated entrances and metal
detectors.
GEOGRAPHIC DISPERSION OF ATTENDEES. Attendees to the 2015 GNEAS traveled on average 71.1 miles to attend. This compares to the average of 45 miles in 2008. Most of the
attendees still come from the south and east of the Westover Air Reserve Base in Chicopee (zip
code 01022). Approximately 70% of the attendees came from outside the local area in 2015.
This compares to about 61% of the attendees who came from outside the local area in 2008.
AVERAGE GROUP EXPENDITURES. Average overall spending per attendee in 2015 was
estimated to be $30.05 per person with the overall spending per group at $104.56. This
compares to an estimated $26 per attendee spending with the overall average group spending of
$98 in 2008. Average per group expenditures for local attendees was estimated to be $74.19
or $22.35 per person, while average per group expenditures for non-local attendees was
estimated to be $118.66 per group or $33.71 per person. These findings were not comparable to
the 2008 measures as locals and non-locals were more highly segmented in the 2015 study.
FURTHER DEFINITION OF LOCALS AND NON-LOCALS. For the 2015 year, two groups of locals were defined as well as two groups of non-locals. This provided further
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insight into the different travel groups attending the air show. For locals, the first group
identified were the convenience locals who spent an estimated $75.10 per group or $24.07 per
person, while regional locals spent an estimated $73.69 per group or $21.18 per person. For
non-locals, a day trip group spent on average $92.80 or $26.14 per person, while the
overnight guest group spent $224.45 per group or $66.40 per person. The 2015 study
employed a trade market analysis technique to differentiate the types of attendees and the
technique provided better estimates of attendee types and expenditure patterns within these
groups.
DISPERSION OF LOCAL AND NON-LOCAL ATTENDEES. For purposes of distribution,
convenience locals comprised 9% of all attendees, regional locals comprised 16.6% of all
attendees, day trip non-locals comprised 56.1% of all attendees and overnight guests
accounted for 13.7% of all attendees (note 4.5% were not identified). Nearly 70% of the
attendees were non-locals or individuals and groups from outside the local community. Detailed
dispersion maps were constructed indicating similar patterns in the geographic market area from
2008 to 2015 with the bulk of visitors to the GNEAS coming from the south and east of
Chicopee. Mapping of the non-attendees also indicated that they are from the same geographic
areas as the actual attendees. This years study suggested both an improved market penetration,
meaning more people came from the expected areas, and an extended regional reach of the
geographic market further from the Chicopee area.
ECONOMIC SIGNIFICANCE. The overall economic significance or all spending in the local
community of Chicopee directly tied to the GNEAS was estimated to be $11.6 million
($11,589,515 actual estimate). This compares to an overall economic significance to the local
Chicopee economy was an estimated $8.2 million in 2008. While the numbers appear to be up
significantly the estimation process was improved due to better definition of locals and non-
locals and by separating out local expenditures from non-local expenditures in the overall
expenditures estimates attributed to the trip. Furthermore, attendance increased and while there
was more refined segmentation of the attendees, expenditure patterns were more accurately
estimated and the expenditures made outside the region for both locals and non-locals were more
accurately estimated in 2015 than in 2008 and appropriately excluded from local estimates.
DIRECT ECONOMIC IMPACT FROM OUTSIDE THE REGION INFLUX OF EXPENDITURES. When locals were excluded from the estimates, the economic
expenditures to the community were estimated to be $9.3 million in direct new money coming
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into the region from outside the area; and, when the sales multiplier (Massachusetts Office of
Travel and Tourism sales multiplier, 2013) of 1.59 was applied, the direct, indirect and
induced economic impact was estimated to be $14.9 million. (Note only a sales multiplier
was applied here for the induced effect estimates as this is a temporary special event and has less
impact than a permanent business impact that would include long term earnings and additional
employment multiplier impacts.) This compares to the 2008 EI study when locals were excluded
and the direct economic impact was estimated to be $8.2 million and the overall or direct and
induced impacts was estimated to be $12.3 million as corrected for 2008.
EXPENDITURES OUTSIDE THE REGION. Both locals and non-locals make expenditures
that do no affect the local economy but are made as a result of the GNEAS. This was not
measured in the 2008 study; however, these measures were addressed in the 2015 study. For
example, a non-local may gas up the vehicle in their home community before leaving to attend
the GNEAS; while a local person may be prompted to make a contribution or donation to a
veterans group such as Wounded Warriors either before or after the event as a result of
attending the event. These examples may not have direct impact locally, but they may have some
impact outside the area and need to be acknowledged. The event prompted the expenditure. If
researchers do not carefully address these expenditures, they can be mis-counted in the
economic projections. These are measures that are prompted by the GNEAS but occurred
outside the local economies. Locals spent on average an estimated $9.88 per group or $2.97 per
person for a total out-of-area expenditures of $331 thousand; and, non-locals spent on average,
$26.16 per group or $7.43 per person for an additional out-of-area expenditures of $1.98
million.
PROFILES OF ATTENDEES AND NON-ATTENDEES. The average age of all attendees to
the GNEAS was 41.5 years of age. This compares to an average age of 44.8 years of age in the
2008 GNEAS study. Additional demographic profiles of the attendees included statistics on
gender, martial status, gross household income, educational status, and professional status. This
year, for the first time, due to a unique registration process developed for the GNEAS and the
Galaxy Community Council, all interested groups and individuals were asked to register at the
GNEAS web site. This provided an account of the number of people who intended to come to
the show, but chose not to or who we call non-attendees. These individuals and groups were
asked why they did not attend, even though they expressed interest. Even if they did not attend,
they were were asked why they did not attend, if they still had interest in air shows. A profile of
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their characteristics was compiled. Overall, these non-attendees compared almost identically to
the attendees. The variations were small -- they were slightly older, from slightly higher
household income levels and most of the reasons for not attending clustered around other
activities interfering or not simply have the time to attend.
OVERALL SATISFACTION OF ATTENDEES. Overall satisfaction with the GNEAS
improved from 2008 to 2015. In 2015, the event satisfaction measure found 84% were either
satisfied or very satisfied with the show. This compares to an overall satisfaction with the event
in 2008 of 77% who were satisfied or very satisfied; however, parking, access and traffic
congestion were major concerns for the attendees along with other secondary issues such as high
price of concessions and lack of available bathrooms.
LIKELIHOOD TO RETURN TO NEXT GNEAS. Of those indicating a desire to return,
86% indicated a high level of certainty that they would return in two (2) years to the GNEAS and
66% indicated that they would definitely return. This compares to 85% who indicated with a
high level of certainty that they would return in the next two (2) years in 2008 and 57% who
indicated that they would likely return.
DISPERSION OF ATTENDEES AND NON-ATTENDEES. The geographic markets of the
reach of both the responding attendees (n=522) who registered and those non-attendees (n=798)
who also registered but were not able to attend are provided here for a review of the market area
and reach of the 2015 GNEAS.
ADDITIONAL STUDIES. This year the overall study of economic impact was supplemented
with studies on brand experience, social impacts and social media use; however, those studies
are still in review and analysis stages and include more advanced analysis.
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Figure 3. Dispersion of 2015 GNEAS Attendees by Primary Resident Zip Code (Source Mapline 2015). (N=522; each pin-point represents a zip code of attendees, more than one household may be represented by each pin point.)
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Figure 4. Dispersion of Non-Attendees of the 2015 GNEAS by Home Resident Zip Code. (N=798; each pin-point represents zip codes of non-attendees, more than one household may be represented by each pin point.)
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