Student Success Matrix (SSM X ) Karen Swan, University of Illinois Springfield Peter Shea, SUNY Mindy Sloan, Ashford University Sandy Daston, PAR
Student Success Matrix (SSMX)
Karen Swan, University of Illinois Springfield Peter Shea, SUNY Mindy Sloan, Ashford University Sandy Daston, PAR
Overview
• Past, present, and (one) future • Four models and their strengths/weaknesses • Current work based in literature, PAR 1 and
current PAR partners • A tentative model for online student retention • One possible future, benefits, next steps • Questions for you
Brief History of Research
• First retention studies followed post-WWII boom • 1960s “dropouts” studied creating first empirical
literature • 1970s, Spady (1971) reviewed literature, created
descriptive theory applying Durkheim’s (1951) theory of suicide
• Using Spady’s work, Tinto (1975) created predictive theory of college dropout behavior
• Bean and Metzner (1985) and others studied non-traditional students – different predictive model
Pre-entry Attributes
Goals/ Commitments
Institutional Experience Integration Goals/
Commitments Outcome
Criticisms of Tinto Model
• Based on assimilation into monolithic culture of higher education
• “Cultural suicide” – students physically and culturally disassociate with past to “survive”
• Critique: Institutions should be more adaptive and responsive to students – “intervene”
• Roots of distinction between “retention” and “persistence” (not the same)
Assumes these as “given”
Assumes these as “given”
Where is institutional response? Where are “interventions”?
Why uni-variate outcome?
Pre-entry Attributes
Goals/ Commitments
Institutional Experience Integration Goals/
Commitments Outcome
Non-traditional students
• ‘‘We label none of the thirteen propositions of Tinto’s theory as reliable knowledge [about] commuter colleges and universities” (Braxton & Lee, 2005)
• For “commuter students” social integration is replaced by environmental variables and psychological outcomes (Bean & Metzner, 1985)
Bean & Metzner’s (1985) model for non-traditional students
learner characteristics
academic variables
environmental
variables
academic outcomes
psychological outcomes
decision to Drop-out
learner characteristics
psychological outcomes
environmental variables
Assumes these as “given”
Assumes these as “given”
Where is institutional response? Where are “interventions”?
Retention or Persistence?
• Retention: institutional goal of keeping students enrolled for consecutive semesters until degree completion
• Persistence: individual goal of a student reaching his or her specific educational attainment.
• These are different.
Important?
“In a national sample, approximately 59% of BA recipients graduated from a different college than the first institution they attended”
(National Center for Education Statistics [NCES], 2003).
Implication: Institutions will fail to “retain”
students most of the time
Retention or Persistence?
• Colleges and universities retain students, while students persist to a goal.
• Assumption underlying retention is retention to degree from original institution
• Individual student’s goal are different • Student may successfully persist to a goal without
being retained to graduation • “Educational attainment” - term used to capture
the variability of students’ goals and disentangle retention and persistence
Interventions: For Retention or Persistence?
Still assumes these as “given” ?
Still assumes these as “given” ?
Where is institutional response? Where are “interventions”?
(Falcone, 2012)
Empirical v Conceptual Models
• Previous models have been largely based on conceptual work
• Opportunities exist to test these empirically • Analytics clearly one way • Other ways too, for example:
National Empirical Results Interventions targeted toward: • preventing delayed entry to college • increasing part-timers’ level of enrollment • boosting financial aid in community colleges • reducing students’ work hours have the greatest numerical potential for improving
completion rates. Caveat: National results don’t tell me about me
What’s Missing?
• We need new models • Neither “traditional” nor “commuters” • Need the model to be explicit:
– Online + Classroom + Blended – Institutional response/interventions – Retention/persistence – Multivariate outcomes – Conceptual but empirically testable “here”
predictors learner characteristics
learner behaviors academic integration
social-psychological integration other learner support
course/program characteristics instructors behaviors
research literature PAR POC findings partners experience
time connection entry progress completion
academic cycle program/
course
Learner Characteristics
22%
Learner Behaviors
15%
Academic Integration
19%
Social-Psych Integration
10%
Other Learner Support
13%
Course/Program Characteristics
12%
Instructor Behaviors
9%
differing types of supports X predictors addressed
Learner Characteristics
24%
Learner Behaviors
14%
Academic Integration
20%
Social-Psych Integration
8%
Other Learner Support
9%
Course/Program Characteristics
17%
Instructor Behaviors
8 %
Learner Characteristics
23%
Learner Behaviors
13%
Academic Integration
21%
Social-Psych Integration
11%
Other Learner Support
13%
Course/Program Characteristics
10%
Instructor Behaviors
10%
predictors addressed: community vs. 4-year colleges
community colleges 4-year colleges
Learner Characteristics
29%
Learner Behaviors
11% Academic
Integration
17%
Social-Psych Integration
8%
Other Learner Support
11%
Course/Program Characteristics
17%
Instructor Behaviors
7% Learner
Characteristics
33%
Learner Behaviors,
7% Academic Integration
23%
Social-Psych Integration
15%
Other Learner Support
8%
Course/Program Characteristics,
3% Instructor Behavior
11 %
predictors addressed: for-profit vs. public
for-profit colleges public colleges
predictors addressed: open vs. selective admissions
Learner Characteristics
26%
Learner Behaviors
14%
Academic Integration
19 %
Social-Psych Integration
8%
Other Learner Support
10%
Course/Program Characteristics
14%
Instructor Behaviors
8% Learner Characteristics
21%
Learner Behaviors
14%
Academic Integration
21%
Social-Psych Integration
11%
Other Learner Support
14%
Course/Program Characteristics
10%
Instructor Behaviors
10%
open admissions selective admissions
Learner Characteristics
22%
Learner Behaviors
13%
Academic Integration
22%
Social-Psych Integration
10%
Other Learner Support
11%
Course/Program Characteristics
13%
Instructor Behaviors
9% Learner Characteristics
25%
Learner Behaviors
15% Academic
Integration
17% Social-Psych Integration
10%
Other Learner Support
14%
Course/Program Characteristics
9%
Instructor Behaviors
10%
predictors addressed: online only vs. mixed delivery
online only mixed delivery
Connection 18%
Entry 37%
Progress 31%
Completion 14%
differing types of supports X academic cycle
Connection
18%
Entry
39 %
Progress
32%
Completion
11% Connection
17%
Entry
36%
Progress
31%
Completion
16%
academic cycle: community vs. 4-year colleges
community colleges 4-year colleges
Connection
18%
Entry
39%
Progress
37%
Completion
6% Connection
17%
Entry
38%
Progress
31%
Completion
14%
academic cycle: for-profit vs. public
for-profit colleges public colleges
Connection
18%
Entry
36%
Progress
31%
Completion
15 % Connection
16%
Entry
39%
Progress
33%
Completion
12%
academic cycle: open vs. selective admissions
open admissions selective admissions
Connection
15%
Entry
41%
Progress
34%
Completion
10% Connection
20%
Entry
33%
Progress
28%
Completion
19%
academic cycle: online only vs. mixed delivery
online only mixed delivery
17.63%
39.42%
32.37%
10.58%
16.69%
35.74%
31.12%
16.45%
22.67%
38.67%
31.33%
7.33%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Connection
Entry
Progress
Completion
CC
4YR
COMBO
23.74%
14.14%
20.20%
8.08%
9.09%
16.67%
8.08%
22.57%
13.12%
20.73%
10.76%
12.86%
9.71%
10.24%
25.00%
15.00%
17.50%
8.75%
16.25%
8.75%
8.75%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
Learner Characteristics
Learner Behaviors
Academic Integration
Social-Psychological Integration
Other Learner Support
Course/Program Characteristics
Instructor Behavior/Characteristics
CC
4YR
COMBO
comparisons: 2-year vs. 4-year vs. both
predictors
academic cycle
comparisons: for-profit vs. public institutions
predictors
academic cycle
18.10%
38.79%
37.07%
6.03%
17.55%
36.78%
30.90%
14.78%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Connection
Entry
Progress
Completion
FOR PROFIT
PUBLIC
32.79%
6.56%
22.95%
14.75%
8.20%
3.28%
11.48%
29.00%
11.00%
16.90%
8.20%
10.54%
16.54%
7.20%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
Learner Characteristics
Learner Behaviors
Academic Integration
Social-Psychological Integration
Other Learner Support
Course/Program Characteristics
Instructor Behavior/Characteristics
FOR PROFIT
PUBLIC
18.16%
35.85%
30.78%
15.21%
15.56%
39.00%
32.68%
11.76%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Connection
Entry
Progress
Completion
SELECTIVE
OPEN
comparisons: open vs. selective admissions
predictors
academic cycle
24.60%
14.68%
17.06%
9.92%
13.89%
9.52%
10.32%
22.26%
13.02%
22.11%
9.58%
11.06%
13.02%
8.85%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
Learner Characteristics
Learner Behaviors
Academic Integration
Social-Psychological Integration
Other Learner Support
Course/Program Characteristics
Instructor Behavior/Characteristics
ONLINE ONLY
MIXED DELIVERY
21.21%
13.64%
20.71%
10.61%
13.64%
9.85%
10.35%
26.24%
13.69%
19.39%
8.37%
9.89%
14.45%
7.98%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
Learner Characteristics
Learner Behaviors
Academic Integration
Social-Psychological Integration
Other Learner Support
Course/Program Characteristics
Instructor Behavior/Characteristics
SELECTIVE
OPEN
comparisons: online only vs. mixed delivery
predictors
academic cycle
20.27%
32.66%
28.14%
18.93%
15.35%
40.56%
34.23%
9.86%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Connection
Entry
Progress
Completion
ONLINE ONLY
MIXED DELIVERY
learner characteristics
instructor behaviors
academic integration
social-psychological integration
learner behaviors
course characteristics
other support
retention/ progression
modeling retention & progression online
learner characteristics
instructor behaviors
academic integration
social-psychological integration
learner behaviors
course characteristics
other support
retention/ progression
modeling retention & progression online
modeling retention & progression online
learner characteristics
instructor behaviors
academic integration
social-psychological integration
learner behaviors
course characteristics
other support
retention/ progression
Data Driven Institutional Response/Interventions
Data Driven Institutional Response/Interventions
Benefits
Next Steps
Questions?