Confiden’al – for 5GIC Members Only 1 Stuart Revell
Confiden'al – for 5GIC Members Only Stuart Revell, 5G Huddle 26th April 2016
Agenda
As we continue to move forward with the development of 5G technologies and solutions, we move closer and closer to realising the vision of connectivity for people and objects everywhere. 2020 is universally seen as the target for wide scale 5G rollout, but this is not where the challenge will end – it is estimated that 5G technologies will peak in around 2040, so it is essential that the groundwork that is being put in now does not only consider the short term requirements for network rollout, but also looks beyond to the requirements to enable its growth and a sustainable future. This session will plot both the short and long term path to widespread 5G adoption by first looking at the transition period in the lead-up to 2020 and how to best manage the shift from 4G to 5G; and then to the longer term future and at the challenges and opportunities ahead as we look to ensure a sustainable 5G future.
13:30 – 13:50 Presentation: From previous generations to 5G: An integrated and robust IoT platform Stuart Revell, 5G Innovation Centre, University of Surrey
13:50 – 14:10 Presentation: Next Generation Internet Protocols: 5G & the Internet, finding the best path together Andy Sutton, Principal Network Architect, BT UK
14:10 – 14:30 Presentation: Toward 5G Deployment in 2020 and Beyond Takehiro Nakamura, VP and Managing Director of 5G Laboratory, NTT DOCOMO, Inc.
14:30 – 15:45 Panel Discussion: Delivering a sustainable and long-term 5G future • Bernard Barani, Deputy Head of Unit, Dir E, Network Technologies, European Commission • Ruy Pinto, Group Chief Operations Officer, Inmarsat plc (on behalf of ESOA) • Mike Short, Vice President, Telefónica Europe • Bashir Gwandu, Chairman, Commonwealth ITU Group
13:30 – 15:45 Moderator: Stuart Revell, 5G Innovation Centre, University of Surrey Session 3: Plotting the path to 2020 and beyond
Confiden'al – for 5GIC Members Only Stuart Revell, 5G Huddle 26th April 2016
What is the 5GIC?
Based at the University of Surrey (UoS) in the Institute of Communications Systems (ICS)
World’s largest academic/industry research partnership & test facility for the development of future 5G Communications.
£5m from Enterprise M3 LEP to support: • 5GIC test facilities development • Step-out 5GIC facilities to SMEs within the region • Create 5G Incubation Facilities at key locations within the region • Develop links to other LEPs such as Bucks & Thames Valley
£58m already invested by industry partners (below)
£12m investment from the Higher Education Funding Council.
UK based and with significant international connections to China, Korea & Japan
EM3 Board link between 5GIC and China Britain Business Council.
Confiden'al – for 5GIC Members Only Stuart Revell, 5G Huddle 26th April 2016
Mobile Subscriber Evolu'on (excluding m2m)
0
1,000,000,000
2,000,000,000
3,000,000,000
4,000,000,000
5,000,000,000
6,000,000,000
7,000,000,000
8,000,000,000
9,000,000,000
10,000,000,000
Q1 2000
Q1 2001
Q1 2002
Q1 2003
Q1 2004
Q1 2005
Q1 2006
Q1 2007
Q1 2008
Q1 2009
Q1 2010
Q1 2011
Q1 2012
Q1 2013
Q1 2014
Q1 2015
Q1 2016
Q1 2017
Q1 2018
Q1 2019
Q1 2020
1G 2G 3G 4G Source: GSMA
3G ~10 years to 1 billion
4G forecast ~ 8 years to 1 billion
2G ~11 years to 1 billion ~ 20 years to peak
Mar ‘16 4G ~ 231M
Mar ‘16 3G ~ 1.2B
Mar ‘16 GSM ~ 2.39B
Confiden'al – for 5GIC Members Only Stuart Revell, 5G Huddle 26th April 2016
Mobile Subscriber Evolu'on (excluding m2m) extrapolated to 2030
0
1,000,000,000
2,000,000,000
3,000,000,000
4,000,000,000
5,000,000,000
6,000,000,000
7,000,000,000
8,000,000,000
9,000,000,000
10,000,000,000
Jan-‐00
Dec-‐00
Nov-‐01
Oct-‐02
Sep-‐03
Aug-‐04
Jul-‐0
5
Jun-‐06
May-‐07
Apr-‐08
Mar-‐09
Feb-‐10
Jan-‐11
Dec-‐11
Nov-‐12
Oct-‐13
Sep-‐14
Aug-‐15
Jul-‐1
6
Jun-‐17
May-‐18
Apr-‐19
Mar-‐20
Feb-‐21
Jan-‐22
Dec-‐22
Nov-‐23
Oct-‐24
Sep-‐25
Aug-‐26
Jul-‐2
7
Jun-‐28
May-‐29
Apr-‐30
1G 2G 3G 4G 5G Total Poly.(Total)
Technology Introduc'on Year Peak Year
2G 1991 2012
3G 2001 2022
4G 2007 2028
5G 2018 2039
Assumptions • Growth rate and profile follow
previous generations • April 2016 to 2020 GSMA forecasts • 2020 to 2030 Extrapolated scenario
using historical profiles by RTACS ltd.
Source: GSMA and RTACS Ltd.
Confiden'al – for 5GIC Members Only Stuart Revell, 5G Huddle 26th April 2016
1G to 5G evolution
1G • Phone Service. Mobility to Voice Services (analogue)
2G • Phone Service. Digital GSM + Added Security through Digital encryp'on
2.5G • Phone Service 2G + limited data. Short Message En'ty + Packet Services
3G • Phone Services + data + new services and Apps
4G • Previous G’s plus: Packet Service Only + Higher throughput (Data Centric Architecture)
5G • Previous G’s plus: Greater Consistency & Flexibility in QoS / QoE, transparent to user. Ultra-‐Dense Connec'vity and Capacity, percep'on of near 100% COVERAGE in all areas
Source: hjp://www.techuk.org/insights/reports/item/6008-‐5g-‐innova'on-‐opportuni'es-‐a-‐discussion-‐paper
Confiden'al – for 5GIC Members Only Stuart Revell, 5G Huddle 26th April 2016
5G vision, seamless services with perception of sufficient bandwidth and coverage in any context
Market drivers and use cases for 5G • Competiveness
Coverage Capacity Business model CAPEX / ARPU Efficient Spectrum utilisation Explosive digital growth
o Businesses o Services o Data
• Internet of Things / Vertical / Tactile Critical infrastructure Smart Cities Health & Social care Sports & Fitness Travel
o Rail o Automotive o Planes
• Safety & Security Finance / payments Public safety Cyber security through design
• Extreme video Virtual & Augmented reality Higher resolution -> SD -> HD -> UHD Broadcast On demand Next generation services enabled, abstracted complexity
Any context Dynamic services
Security, Policy & Control
User and/or thing
Foundation for next generation infrastructure
Confiden'al – for 5GIC Members Only Stuart Revell, 5G Huddle 26th April 2016
NETWORK INNOVATION (Network of Networks and interworking)
RADIO INNOVATION (including licensed and licence-‐exempt)
Core 5G requirements
Mobile (Cellular) Fixed (Satellite, Broadcast, xDSL, Fibre, Wireless)
Content delivery (CDN – edge /
user)
Core Networks / Management (SDN/NFV)
<1GHz 1-‐6GHz >6GHz
1 1-‐10Gbps connec'ons to end points in the field (i.e. not theore'cal maximum)
5G Radio Access Technology
Access technologies
Content / stored data nodes near to the EDGE and
USERS
Backhaul and core network connec'vity
Leveraging best available exis'ng air interfaces and
evolu'on to 5G RAT
Developing new
technologies and 5G RAT
2 1 millisecond end-‐to-‐end round trip delay (latency)
CROSS NETWORK = 5G DIGITAL FABRIC
Interworking Innova'on enabled through Trials and Test Beds. Including cross boundary Security, Policy, Control, Iden'ty and
Mone'sa'on
MULTIPLE RADIOS = 5G DIGITAL FABRIC Spectrum usage and management innova'on enabled through trials and test beds. Mul'ple networks, bands and/or air interfaces and
control and/or user plane
3 1000x bandwidth per unit area
4 10-‐100x number of connected devices
5 (Percep'on of) 99.999% availability Low capacity, good for control / coverage
Medium Capacity, good for control and user plane
High capacity, good for user
plane 6 (Percep'on of) 100% coverage
7 90% reduc'on in network energy usage MAJOR CHALLENGE -‐ Radical low energy technology evolu'on at mul'ple levels for each area: materials, device,
systems and cross network 8
Up to ten year bajery life for low power, machine-‐type devices
Technology and innovation opportunities
Source: hjp://www.techuk.org/insights/reports/item/6008-‐5g-‐innova'on-‐opportuni'es-‐a-‐discussion-‐paper
Confiden'al – for 5GIC Members Only Stuart Revell, 5G Huddle 26th April 2016
HSB 1-‐10Gbps connec'ons to end points in the field (i.e. not theore'cal maximum)
HSB 1000x bandwidth per
unit area
MIoT 10-‐100x number of connected devices
LP Up to ten year bajery life for low power,
machine-‐type devices
LP 90% reduc'on in network
energy usage
CIoT -‐ 1 millisecond end-‐to-‐end round trip
delay (latency)
AC&C (Percep'on of)
99.999% availability
AC&C ALL (Percep'on of)
100% coverage
HSB – High Speed
Broadband
MIoT -‐ Massive IoT
LP -‐ Low power
nodes and networks
CIoT -‐Cri'cal IoT
AC&C – Availability, Capacity & Coverage
5G vision, seamless services with perception of sufficient bandwidth and coverage in any context
Four keys areas: 1. High Speed Broadband (HSB) 2. Network Availability, Capacity & Coverage (AC&C) 3. Massive Internet of Things (MIoT) 4. Critical Internet of Things (CIoT)
Underpinned by extremely LOW POWER (LP) • User equipment • Networks • Nodes • Components
Operating seamless across network boundaries • Public • Private
Confiden'al – for 5GIC Members Only Stuart Revell, 5G Huddle 26th April 2016
Mobile 3G, 4G, 5G
PAN / LAN SRD / WiFi
WAN
Spectrum and Radio Access
Technologies (RAT)
5G & IoT scope – traditional view Market drivers and use cases for 5G • Competiveness
Coverage Capacity Business model CAPEX / ARPU Efficient Spectrum utilisation Explosive digital growth
o Businesses o Services o Data
• Internet of Things / Vertical / Tactile Critical infrastructure Smart Cities Health & Social care Sports & Fitness Travel
o Rail o Automotive o Planes
• Safety & Security Finance / payments Public safety Cyber security through design
• Extreme video Virtual & Augmented reality Higher resolution -> SD -> HD -> UHD Broadcast On demand
Confiden'al – for 5GIC Members Only Stuart Revell, 5G Huddle 26th April 2016
5G & IoT, scope and evolution – Network of Networks Vision
Satellite Broadcast
Mobile 3G, 4G, 5G
PAN / LAN SRD / WiFi
P to P P to MP
xDSL
Fibre
Cable WAN
SoT Core Networks, Inter-‐networking & Backhaul
Fixed Access Technology
Spectrum and Radio Access
Technologies (RAT)
Market drivers and use cases for 5G • Competiveness
Coverage Capacity Business model CAPEX / ARPU Efficient Spectrum utilisation Explosive digital growth
o Businesses o Services o Data
• Internet of Things / Vertical / Tactile Critical infrastructure Smart Cities Health & Social care Sports & Fitness Travel
o Rail o Automotive o Planes
• Safety & Security Finance / payments Public safety Cyber security through design
• Extreme video Virtual & Augmented reality Higher resolution -> SD -> HD -> UHD Broadcast On demand
Confiden'al – for 5GIC Members Only Stuart Revell, 5G Huddle 26th April 2016
Mobile Fixed / Mobile
Transport & Logistics
Business & Financial Services
Health & Social Care
Retail / Logistics
Digital Creativity & Information
Services
Verticals – 5G technology pull, network of networks
5G Smart Living
Rural, sub-urban, urban
Public & Private Portal
Government – national
and regional
Cyber - Security by design
Standards
1. High Speed Broadband (HSB) 2. Network Availability, Capacity & Coverage (AC&C) 3. Massive Internet of Things (MIoT) 4. Critical Internet of Things (CIoT)
5G RADIO
5G FABRIC
5G CORE
£ $ € ¥ M2M THINGS
Confiden'al – for 5GIC Members Only Stuart Revell, 5G Huddle 26th April 2016
Network of Networks – Design for collaboration across boundaries
13
Next generaWon networks recognising that borders exist.
• Mul'ple network owners
• Internet ‘not fit for purpose’ in next genera'on digital world
• Market Place & Digital Fabric -‐ People and services must seamlessly connect with:
Context awareness
CoS
QoE
QoS (priori'sa'on)
Security
Payment across chain
Applica'ons
Core Radio
Applica'ons
Core
Radio
Applica'ons
Core
Radio
Applica'ons
Core
Radio
Applica'ons
Core
Radio
Applica'ons
Core
Radio
Applica'ons
Core
Applica'ons
Confiden'al – for 5GIC Members Only Stuart Revell, 5G Huddle 26th April 2016 14
Applica'ons
Core Radio
Applica'ons
Core
Radio
Applica'ons
Core
Radio
Applica'ons
Core
Radio
Applica'ons
Core
Radio
Applica'ons
Core
Applica'ons
Radio
Applica'ons
Core
INTERNET / BEST EFFORT ‘NOT FIT FOR PURPOSE’
Next generaWon networks recognising that borders exist.
• Mul'ple network owners
• Internet ‘not fit for purpose’ in next genera'on digital world
• Market Place & Digital Fabric -‐ People and services must seamlessly connect with:
Context awareness
CoS
QoE
QoS (priori'sa'on)
Security
Payment across chain
Network of Networks – Design for collaboration across boundaries
Confiden'al – for 5GIC Members Only Stuart Revell, 5G Huddle 26th April 2016
Applica'ons
Core
Radio
Applica'ons
Core
5G & IoT Digital Fabric - Design for collaboration across boundaries
Radio
Applica'ons
Core
Radio
Applica'ons
Core
Radio
Applica'ons
Core
Radio
Applica'ons
Core
Applica'ons
Radio
Applica'ons
Core
Business & Users
Network 1
Network 2
Network 3
Network ……….
Market Place
5G & IoT Digital Fabric
HSB 1-‐10Gbps connec'ons to end points in the field (i.e. not theore'cal maximum)
HSB 1000x bandwidth per
unit area
MIoT 10-‐100x number of connected devices
LP Up to ten year bajery life for low power,
machine-‐type devices
LP 90% reduc'on in network
energy usage
CIoT -‐ 1 millisecond end-‐to-‐end round trip
delay (latency)
AC&C (Percep'on of)
99.999% availability
AC&C ALL (Percep'on of)
100% coverage
HSB – High Speed
Broadband
MIoT -‐ Massive IoT
LP -‐ Low power
nodes and networks
CIoT -‐Cri'cal IoT
AC&C – Availability, Capacity & Coverage
Confiden'al – for 5GIC Members Only Stuart Revell, 5G Huddle 26th April 2016
Discussion points
5G Radio Access Technologies Non 5G Radio evoluWon and usage Co-‐existence and interference Spectrum
Core Network EvoluWon Leveraging, connecWng and evolving all ICT assets 5G RAT ready, previous G’s and other Air Interfaces
Network of Networks • Operator to Operator • Operator(s) to VerWcal(s)
Digital Fabric (Technology) Digital Market Place (Commercial)
5G
RADIO
5G FABRIC
5G
CORE
Confiden'al – for 5GIC Members Only Stuart Revell, 5G Huddle 26th April 2016
Mobile Subscriber Evolu'on (excluding m2m) extrapolated to 2030
0
1,000,000,000
2,000,000,000
3,000,000,000
4,000,000,000
5,000,000,000
6,000,000,000
7,000,000,000
8,000,000,000
9,000,000,000
10,000,000,000
Jan-‐00
Aug-‐00
Mar-‐01
Oct-‐01
May-‐02
Dec-‐02
Jul-‐0
3
Feb-‐04
Sep-‐04
Apr-‐05
Nov-‐05
Jun-‐06
Jan-‐07
Aug-‐07
Mar-‐08
Oct-‐08
May-‐09
Dec-‐09
Jul-‐1
0
Feb-‐11
Sep-‐11
Apr-‐12
Nov-‐12
Jun-‐13
Jan-‐14
Aug-‐14
Mar-‐15
Oct-‐15
May-‐16
Dec-‐16
Jul-‐1
7
Feb-‐18
Sep-‐18
Apr-‐19
Nov-‐19
Jun-‐20
Jan-‐21
Aug-‐21
Mar-‐22
Oct-‐22
May-‐23
Dec-‐23
Jul-‐2
4
Feb-‐25
Sep-‐25
Apr-‐26
Nov-‐26
Jun-‐27
Jan-‐28
Aug-‐28
Mar-‐29
Oct-‐29
May-‐30
Dec-‐30
1G 2G 3G 4G 5G Total Poly.(Total) Source: GSMA and RTACS Ltd.
5G
RADIO
5G
CORE
5G FABRIC
Confiden'al – for 5GIC Members Only Stuart Revell, 5G Huddle 26th April 2016
Agenda
13:30 – 13:50 Presentation: From previous generations to 5G: An integrated and robust IoT platform Stuart Revell, 5G Innovation Centre, University of Surrey
13:50 – 14:10 Presentation: Next Generation Internet Protocols: 5G & the Internet, finding the best path together Andy Sutton, Principal Network Architect, BT UK
14:10 – 14:30 Presentation: Toward 5G Deployment in 2020 and Beyond Takehiro Nakamura, VP and Managing Director of 5G Laboratory, NTT DOCOMO, Inc.
14:30 – 15:45 Panel Discussion: Delivering a sustainable and long-term 5G future • Bernard Barani, Deputy Head of Unit, Dir E, Network Technologies, European Commission • Ruy Pinto, Group Chief Operations Officer, Inmarsat plc (on behalf of ESOA) • Mike Short, Vice President, Telefónica Europe • Bashir Gwandu, Chairman, Commonwealth ITU Group
13:30 – 15:45 Moderator: Stuart Revell, 5G Innovation Centre, University of Surrey Session 3: Plotting the path to 2020 and beyond
Confiden'al – for 5GIC Members Only 19
For more information please contact:
Stuart Revell [email protected] (M) +44 7836 512787
… any Questions?