Copyright is owned by the Author of the thesis. Permission is given for a copy to be downloaded by an individual for the purpose of research and private study only. The thesis may not be reproduced elsewhere without the permission of the Author.
Copyright is owned by the Author of the thesis. Permission is given for a copy to be downloaded by an individual for the purpose of research and private study only. The thesis may not be reproduced elsewhere without the permission of the Author.
, thesic present ed in partial fulfllrnent of
the require~ents for the dezree of
:i~ ... ter uf ~ogrlc Jlturnl .;cl.ence in
.. •ricu.: tural co:lo::'lics
nt
H. J . FOUNTJ\I!iE
1 'J72
1 • • (a) I give perr.~ ission for ·r,y theni::; , .:"lti tlcd tructural .dju:.Jtmcnt L. -'air:rlnt;; in tllO
::unuwa.tu to be t1adc ::.tvailaole to readorn ln tr•t.: i~J!'nr")· ~1wicr t..ho c n .it.:.,>na d .tcrfflined ~Y the .i. r~rian.
(b) I a&reo to my thes~.s, if ,1sked for b,;1 an.:)ther in-::;.ti t•·tlo <' , ltel '1.£ snnt awa.Y on tem,t->ora.ry loan :.mccr c ..... dl tionc deter:.1inod by the .-.~ibr.:u-ia.n .
(c) : aloo agree that my thesis :nay be ,"Jicrof.:.lmcd for "ibr,.ry usc .
ii .
.>nto
·~ ~ . ~~e t :l ~~ 1973
'ho _..ibr. ry 1i; noc:: Ur1iveroi ty ~alneroton .ortn , .... .
""..'he copyris;ht of this thesis belongs to the autl.or . lcadcrf''i !'llUSt oign th<tir nllrle in tho space below to show thut thoy rccugnise this . ~ey o.ro aske-d to add their per:r.anent addrcae .
" 0 ~~ •
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ACKNO jL ;u·1 .HLWl'J
For beneficial discuaoion and euidance
t hroughout thin :J tudy the author is indebted to his
supervisor tlr ,•, . J . '.'Ja.rd .
iii .
L'h e helpfulness of members of the Aaricul tural
~conomics und Farn Management Department is gratefully
acknowledged, eapecially that of Messrs 1i. . H. Hughes ,
,, • G. Payne, Dr ,, • r. . Bchrodor and Professor H . J . l'ounsley.
?ina.ncial a.aaistance from the Department of
Agriculture, the New ~oaland Dairy 3oard and from the
:~anawat l.' Co-oporntive 1)~1ry Cor~rany is ackno·:l edged with
gratitude.
The Co-operation and interest shown by the
participating fnmoro in the survey is gratefully
ackno~~lod.ged , as is the aasistanco of Hr 3 . ~ . Baker , General
Hannger of the Hanal'latu Co-op•: ·~ati ve Dairy Com )any and
Nr D. Johnston , an advisory officer with the ~lew ~ealand
Dairy Jo •rd .
C:f'IPTE'!") II I
iv.
page
i ii
iv
vii
X
1
1 . 1 I ntroduction 1 1. 2 J cope of the s tudy 3 1. 3 ,?oview of l i t era ture pertaining to
t he structure of . • ·' . dairy fn r r:t ing 10 1. 4 OVerseas review o f s tructural changes
a ffecting dairying 25
N:: ·: ~::ALAND ' :1 '1GAI cu;:.·r•u:Uu ... Il'l.?trr.:J t"J'lD OUTPUT.:> . ;,r; lfi.~TO~IC.~L 1LVIr .. i
2. 1 Introduction 2 . 2 ,:ggregative gross f ar n i ncome 2. 3 Gross pr oducti vity 2. 4 Partial pr oductivi t y trendo 2 . 5 Haj or inputa 2. 6 Summary
rn.v .~SALAND AG:HCULTUHAL [,,dOUR .:HrUATIO l . I'A!.il' Arm i1lWJ :CT•~D
Primary and tot.al l abour force ·.stimation of the total agr i cul tural l abour force t.s tima tes of future manpower required in agriculture o.s made by tho Agr i cultural Development Conference (1 964) and the National Development Conference (1968) Composition of the agricultural 1 bour force - ith emphasis on owner - operators Total l:;uropean owner-operators Proj otionsa A g neral. co ent Proj otione of' total owner• operatorsz 1966- 2006 Relationship between the total number of owner- operators d employee Dairy farmer owner-oper ators Projections of' dai o ner-operators: 1966- 2006
51
51
52
55
57 60 68
71
?6 78
87
·..;HAPT:.;n IV
CH.P1'ER VII
APPEttDICES
v.
4. 1 Int roduction 94 4. 2 Jeaoription ot the ourvey rea and
comparison with other dairyin5 diatricto o.f Hew ~eals.nd 94
4. ; Formation of the ;Anawatu Jo-operative ~airy Company :.imited 102
4. 4 .: election of survey farms 102 1~ . 5 ': election of tho survey period 103 Ji . G Tho quee:ti·:>nn:.drc - general background. 104 /1 . 7 ; onduc ting the survey 109 4.8 iesults of the survey . Cho.ra.cteriatics
of the ?3 ourvoyed tnrmo: 1963- 69 110 4. 9 .)ocio-oconomio .ap eta of tho aurvoy
farms 120
}Yif'Z'ii;.;SI ., AND CH ·.rU.Cl'I;RISTIC~; OF 'mE AV~:R\n!·: .:~LL ORGANI ;jED t'ARH 137 5. 1 Introduction 137 5. 2 Th ~ypothosi 137 5. 3 Identiticution of well organized farms 139 5. 4 : haracteristica of the aver~:c well
orcnnized farm 142 5. 5 fhe characteristics of the average
well oreanizod farm compared with the ' uverabe tara • obtained !roo the survey farms 142
5. 6 ~umaary 144
CH;. :ACT' ;~:r.., ..:1:...., Jf' ~.I£ f~!:.1. I d:tA~I .... 1-:.J ·; ~1 ··-.. .'U t~E AND A C .. :-.lt'l.RI SON 0.1<.., t'H! J s·rnUCl'UH _. . lTt! 'J.~{;u'
v.UR! .3'1'~1J>J'L'UR!~ v3..:.~l;'~V'SD 1'0 .lS Ir\ };:I';T NCB ll: THV. .. iUJVE. / •. EA 'HZ 1968-69 14-8
6. 1 Introduct ion 148 6. 2 Aasumptiona in constructing th
hypothetical rationalized truotur 148 6. ) Basis tor re-organization 149 6. 4 Char cterietics of the rationalized
struct ur 150 6.5 CoQp ison and a consequences in
movina tro th oo erved 1963-69 etructure to the r tionali truoture 153
6. 6 Rejection or ace ptanoe of hypothe i ? 160 6. 7 R sons for r tionali ing sub• optimallJ 162 6.8 Soma 16~
SUJ.D-1ARY AUD CONC.:.USI N~
7. 1 Is r at ionali ation of t h pr e n t structur worthw ile?
7. 2 Future pro poet ot e small hor d
165
170 17)
s .. ; 1·'Cl'£D BI LIOGRAP
178 192
(i)
(11)
•
?he refercnceo for the t bles and for tho toxt arc independent , e . g. where Ibid . app~ars in a t~bl refere~ce , it -refers to n pr vious tabl reference .
1h& signs liated below have been used throuchout the thesis and have the following interpretation:
<:. loss than
~ leGs than or eqU!Ll to
> Greater than
~ere~ter than or equal to
vi .
.. 'able
?ereentnge or dairy forms with net farm incomes of less tha:1 ·2 , 000 per annum
Dair-y ?n.rmcr•J • tC!r"'ls of exchange
Ca ·ita.l ex)enditure on .1 . ; . :.>airy .tams
Averace net r~rm lnc~es for factor-; supply farms with difforinv acr~ageo
Data pertaininG to tho .r • . ~ . dairy indus tr,n 1750 - 1970
:·iumbcr of holdingc in each herd size group in .. nr;land and · los a.nd 11c. ; ~eal0l'1d
F'arms of one hectare and over , nwnoer and average : ize
;haro of persons o~ployed i n agriculture as percenta ,c of total numberc in employ~ent
Annual avcraee compound gro h ratoe. Pcr cent per ye~
7he ch!Ulging com:)osition of real inputs making up total non-factor inputs . Averages tor 1921 - 23 , 1946-48 o.nd 1964-66
Index numbers of coota and of noninal award ndult me.le ago rate
.~-'rimcry produc rs as poro ntage of breadvinnors and ot tot l population
Total agricultural 1 bour force 1926-1966
3. 3 Agricultural De.olopment Conrorence •a osti te of labour r equireoenta 1972
3. 4 v. timatea o m po er require e-nta tor t ing
vii.
Page
3
4
5
16
20
27
31
40
46
(includi t m contr cting) 57
Total .r..uropean omer-op r tora. Ori inal dat up to and including 1966
Comp iaon ot total owner-op rator d the number ot holcU. :;. 11 crea
Proportion of totnl .urop age grou
o er-oper to
61
,, 6S
'fable
:;. 8 ?er cent not rnteo of entry and withdrawal bet we n decennial ceneuoeo. 1916- 1966
Results of three multiple regression equations of total owner-operators on time
,Juomary of projections
Jatio of employees to total owner-operatoro 1396- 1966
~otel .uropoan dairy owner- operntora. da to. up to and including 1966
.\ctuo.l
3. 13 A com~r~~ieon between n bar of herds with ten or ~ore cows and the total nuober of suppliers to
Page
68
77
80
dairJ companies 82
3. 14 7wo estimatos o! herd size average 83
3. 15 ~roportions of total · urope d·iry o nor-operators OJ at;o ~oups 85
.} . 16 .;orn.Joncnto of tho perccntn,.-;o c!lant;e in the totnl number of do.iry owncr-operutoro between t~o succ ssive decennial censuses 89
3. 17 lesu1ts of four multiple regression equationo of dairy ower-operators (excluding ~1aorio) on time 89
}. 18 5~~ or projections 91
~~ . 1 Hor::1a: temperature ( 0./) , {ailU'all (inches) nnd
sunshine (hourn) 97
4. 2 Nuober or herds by herd Gizo. 1<J5v- S1 , 1960-61 and 1968-69. .~ielecte4 diatricta 100
4. 3 The n ber and percent e of milking cows b7 ae~octed diotriete aa at 31st January 101
4. 4 Compa.ri on ot herd size diotributions: 1?68-69 113
4. 5 of re ult s 119
~.6 Age dio~rioution of the 98 farmers 1Z1
4. ? a.ey of thr ee possible duey otructuree that could ld.ot in th suryey ar a 1 19 0 1 127
4.8 P~duction Bt ti ticn tor tho w t u Co-operntiv Dairy CompQDJ. 1964/ 65 - 19?1/?2 135
'!'able
5. 1 Th nverag total net farm income derived froo average total oas farm income tor diff rent
ix.
Page
herd sizes 140
5. 2 .Jpecifications of the ' avcrase well organiz d taro • 143
.5 . 3 ;'Grccnt.nge increase in reapoctive ehara.ctcriatics or the average 'Or far.. character.istioa formed from tho ')L tarz:1u , conpa.!"ed with the oharactori.:;tica ot the nveraee well organized fart~ . (,. : • • F. ) 145
6. 1 :;o •. .u-isvn of the oricin l and rationali~cd atructurc 153
6. 2 _;ompooltion of the labour !orce under the two Gtructur s 157
J iff rcnccs in inputo as betwe n the orieinal rationalized structures
~ . 4 laluoa of added not tara 1~coMe (~74,631) when cad tclized in per::etuit· il t different ratoo or Lstcrcst
rot~ortion of milkfat sup)lied by herds r;l th <. 100 cows ·nd tho~~e with ~ 100 cows for three scaoono , 1?68-69 , 1969-70 ~md 19? ?1
t\verQ€·& net and averaee roal not farm inco· e pc .. dair-J fc:.r 1 )60-G1 to 1970- 71
..,..,cu·· n.tion~ ropreaenting own r-opero.tors
Code number . ocoupatione and numbers in e ch as group for all ot tus cl sos
d
God n r , oocupationa group for 'emp oy r • and tho occupations li t d occupation o e o in t
d numb rs in each ooount • olaeoo. tor
blo B. 1. ot. or
H Jtandard val e and da·r cow equivale t ooeftici nt
161
162
175
178
130
182
191
Figure
1.1 (b)
-.'ercontage number of hold.inzs ~~rincipally in dairyin... by o.crenge size groupe for years: 1966, 196'1, 1 ~)68 a.nd 1%9
: ercent ~e number of holdin;:;s ":lili-:int herds itn 10 or more cows on Jan . 31, in 1951, 1961
and 1969
•rotal nur.'lber ot aup...,l i er , horde with ~ 10 cows and averaGe herd size: 1950/51 - 1970/71
Aver~1e product ion per cow, tot 1 butterfat ' at :)ttll ' and number of d irJ cows in milk : 1950/.51 - 19'10/71
;rosn and net fnrrn income, 1921-67. out;)ut ( 1 )4')/50 ?ricesJ, 1921-67
Jrosa output , agp:regato inpu: .. s and erosa prJ(;uct.i..vity , 1')21-67
. artial )ro:.iucti vi ty ratios . ·1 ')~1 -6l
i e.ll ;;;rowth of aac~1inerv , fertilizer and limo . 1 }~1-67
2 . 5 Tot:-..1. no:1-fo.ctor 1n;H1ts, real capi to.l and la:>our . 1921-67
Nucuor ot Lu!"o"e n owner-operators. 1 '196 and 1?16 cohort ·
Total nunb r of owner-op rator (excluding .~oris). Actual data and v iou pro jection < •ooo> Th n ber of owner-op ratora and nloy 1896-1 966
•
Nu b r of dairy o er•oper tore. 1906, 1926 I.Uld 1946 cohort
... otal n t ori ). ( ' 000)
er ot dairy o cr-op rator (excludin Actual t and Y oua projection •
M p of t
Di tribution of f un 1 t a
ai~e {by cr ) tor •
x.
19
19
23
24
41
42
66
75
79
86
92
95
112
"'if"Ure
!t. 3
4. 4
4. 5 (a)
4. 5 (b)
4 • .5 (c)
4. 5 (d)
fage
Distl" bution of r::irdng cows by herd. size for the survey fnrmo 112
Distribution of crosa farm income for the survey f ~trtns
)iatrlbut ton o.._ CJil!d•nt/cow ratios
;)ir.:trl lUtion of ·•ilkfat/total correct d · Cl"OD. · 'f'> Nttioe
vintri~ution ot cows/total corrected acronee rn.tioo
Dintrl~ution of cown/labour unit ratios
115
117
117
11'1
11?