STRONG LONG TERM FUNDAMENTALS

Report as on 29 December 2021 at 06:20 AM

STRONG LONG TERM FUNDAMENTALS

MILDLY BEARISH TECHNICAL TRENDPositiveResults in Sep 21

FairValuation

High (60.92%)Institutional Holding

Largest Companyin Private Banks sector

HDFC Bank

Hold

CMP: 1,460.90

STOCK INFO:BSE – 500180/ NSE – HDFCBANKMarket Cap - Large Cap (Rs. 8,08,775 cr) Sector – Private Banks52 w H/L (Rs.) – 1724.3/1342Return on Assets: 1.82%Net NPA: 0.4%Gross NPA: 1.35%CAR: 18.7%

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Within same sectorThere are no stocks in Private Banks industry which we

would recommend at this point

Within same market capVedanta Ltd.

Get Verdict Report

DO YOU HAVE OTHER BETTER CHOICES?

MOJO PROFESSIONAL 1

HDFC BankCMP: 1,460.90Report as on 29 December 2021 at 06:20 AM

Strong Sell Sell Hold Buy Strong Buy

WHY IT’S A HOLD?

Strong Long Term Fundamental Strength with anaverage Return on Assets (ROA) of 1.74%-Healthy long term growth as Net profit has grown byan annual rate of 20.07% -The Bank has a high Capital Adequacy Ratio of16.30% signifying high buffers against its risk basedassets

Positive results in Sep 21-INTEREST EARNED(Q) Highest at Rs 31,353.37 cr-NII(Q) Highest at Rs 17,684.39 cr-CASH AND CASH EQUIVALENTS(HY) Highest at Rs157,428.61 cr

Stock is technically in a Mildly Bearish range-The technical trend has deteriorated from Sidewayson 28-Dec-21-Multiple factors for the stock are Bearish like RSI,MACD and KST

With ROA of 1.8, it has a Fair valuation with a 3.7Price to Book Value-The stock is trading at a fair value compared to itsaverage historical valuations-Over the past year, while the stock has generated areturn of 3.40%, its profits have risen by 17.5% ; thePEG ratio of the company is 1.5

High Institutional Holdings at 60.92%-These investors have better capability and resourcesto analyse fundamentals of companies than mostretail investors.

IS THIS STOCK FOR YOU?Low Risk, Low Return (1 Year)

Absolute RiskAdjusted

Volatility

HDFC Bank 3.40% 0.14 23.76%

SENSEX 22.27% 1.41 15.75%

How much should you hold? -Overall Portfolio exposure to HDFC Bank should be lessthan 10%Overall Portfolio exposure to Private Banks should beless than 30%

(If sector exposure > 30%, please use optimiser tool tosee which are the best stocks to hold in Private Banks)When to exit? - We will constantly monitor the companyand suggest at the appropriate time to exit from thestock

RETURNS SUMMARY (Price + Dividend)The stock gave a total returns of 3.86% in the last 1 yearUnderperforming Sensex returns of 22.27%

Investors Returns (3 years) –

Period 6M 1Y 2Y 3Y

Stock (%) -3.13% 3.86% 15.1% 40.13%

Sector (%) -0.41% -0.41% 14.53% 42.85%

Sensex (%) 9.79% 22.27% 39.26% 60.48%

HDFC Bank Ltd. SENSEX

Dec-18

Aug-21

Feb-1

9Apr-

19Jun

-19

Aug-19Oct-

19

Dec-19

Jan-20

Mar-20

May-20

Jul-20

Sep-2

0

Nov-20

Dec-20

Feb-2

1Apr-

21Jun

-21Oct-

21

Dec-21

-50%

0%

50%

100%

60Hold

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This Real-Time Stock Analysis Report wasgenerated on 29th December, 2021 at 06:20 AM,and may not be valid if you are reading it later.

Some factors/data, as well as the buy/sell/hold callmight have changed.

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MOJO PROFESSIONAL 2

HDFC Bank HOLD | Report as on 29 December 2021 at 06:20 AM

https://www.marketsmojo.com?utm_source=Researchreport_Verdictpdf_291220210620

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STRONG LONG TERM FUNDAMENTALSTRENGTH WITH AN AVERAGE RETURN ONASSETS (ROA) OF 1.74%

20.1%CAGR

High Growth in Net Profitof 20.1% CAGR

Company has experienced an increasein its Net Profit in each of the past 5consecutive years

Company’s Net Profit growth hasincreased in each of the past 5consecutive years

Net Profit has seen a high growth of17.51% over previous period

Healthy Tier 1 Capital Adequacy RatioBank maintains healthy average Tier 1 Capital ratio of 16.30%over the last few years

Company has experienced an increase in its Tier 1 CapitalAdequacy Ratio in each of the past 5 consecutiveyears,Company’s Tier 1 Capital Adequacy Ratio growth hasincreased in each of the past 5 consecutive years

Tier 1 Capital Adequacy Ratio

Sep 2021 16.3

Sep 2020 15.22

Sep 2019 14.24

Sep 2018 13.36

Sep 2017 12.22

Coverage RatioA high provision coverage ratio signifies the bank hasrecognized and created adeqaute reserves to cover its nonperfoming loans

72.27%Coverage Ratio

Net Interest MarginHIgh Margins signify the bank has been able to generatehigher profits from its interest bearing assets

3.96%Net Interest Margin

MOJO PROFESSIONAL 3



QUALITY

13,42513,42515,90015,900

19,04919,049

23,38423,384

28,51528,515

33,50833,508

Sep 2016 Sep 2017 Sep 2018 Sep 2019 Sep 2020 Sep 20210Cr

10000Cr

20000Cr

30000Cr

40000Cr


POSITIVE RESULTS IN SEP 21

Rs31,353.4

crNet Sales -Quarterly

Near term sales trend is verypositiveInterest Earned (Rs Cr)Highest at Rs 31,353.37 cr and Growneach quarter in the last five quarters

Rs17,684.4

crNII - Quarterly

The bank's income from corebusiness is increasingNet Interest Income (Rs Cr)Highest at Rs 17,684.39 crin the last five quarters

Rs 4,481.8cr

PBT - Quarterly

Near term PBT trend is positivePBT less Other Income (Rs Cr)Highest at Rs 4,481.84 cr.in the last five quarters

MOJO PROFESSIONAL 4



FINANCIAL TREND

29 976.9729 976.97 30 079.730 079.7 30 423.5930 423.59 30 482.9730 482.97 31 353.3731 353.37

Sep 2020 Dec 2020 Mar 2021 Jun 2021 Sep 2021

15 776.3915 776.39 16 317.6116 317.61 17 120.1517 120.15 17 008.9617 008.96 17 684.3917 684.39


4 017.834 017.83 4 328.674 328.67

3 245.163 245.164 017.694 017.69

4 481.844 481.84



Rs8,834.3 crPAT - Quarterly

Near term PAT trend is positivePAT (Rs Cr)Highest at Rs 8,834.31 cr.in the last five quarters

Rs 16.0 crEarnings perShare (EPS) -

Quarterly

Increasing profitability; companyhas created higher earnings forshareholdersEPS (Rs)Highest at Rs 15.95in the last five quarters

Rs1,57,428.6

crCash and Eqv -

Half Yearly

Short Term liquidity is improvingCash and Cash EquivalentsHighest at Rs 157,428.61 crin the last six half yearly periods

MOJO PROFESSIONAL 5



FINANCIAL TREND

7 513.117 513.118 758.298 758.29

8 186.518 186.51 7 729.647 729.648 834.318 834.31


13.6513.6515.915.9 14.8514.85 13.9913.99

15.9515.95


99 452.9699 452.96 104 625.11104 625.11

157 428.61157 428.61

Jun 20

20

Sep 2

020

Dec 20

20

Mar 20

21

Jun 20

21

Sep 2

021


20.0%Capital

Adequacy Ratio -Quarterly

The Bank's capital base vs its riskassets is improving. However, thebank may not be taking adequaterisk in its lending book.CAR (%)Highest at 20.00 %in the last five quarters

Key Result

Highlights

Standalone- figures in RsCr

Sep'21 Sep'20 Change%

Interest Earned 31,353.4 29,977.0 4.6%

Operating Profit (PBDIT) 15,807.3 13,813.8 14.4%

% of Net NPAs 0.4 0.2 0.2%

% of Gross NPAs 1.4 1.1 0.3%

Exceptional Items 0.0 0.0

Net Profit 8,834.3 7,513.1 17.6%

MOJO PROFESSIONAL 6



FINANCIAL TREND

19.119.1 18.918.9 18.818.8 19.119.1 2020



WITH ROA OF 1.8, IT HAS A FAIRVALUATION WITH A 3.7 PRICE TO BOOKVALUE

Fair valuationas compared to its Fundamentals

Fairas compared to its past valuations

KeyValuationMultiplesvs Peers

Company Valuation Price to BookRatio

Net NPA to Book Value

Dividend Yield

HDFC Bank Fair 3.7 2.2% 0.4%

ICICI Bank Fair 3.3 5.2% 0.3%

Kotak Mah. Bank Very Expensive 5.2 3.7% 0.1%

Axis Bank Fair 1.9 6.7% 0%

IndusInd Bank Very Attractive 1.5 3.9% 0.6%

MOJO PROFESSIONAL 7



VALUATION

HDFC BankHDFC BankICICI BankICICI Bank

Kotak Mah. BankKotak Mah. Bank

Axis BankAxis Bank

IndusInd BankIndusInd Bank

Attractive

Valuation

Expensive

Weak Fundamental Strong

Fund

amen

tal Valuation

Price to Book Value vs ROA

Dec-20

16

Jun-20

17

Dec-20

17

Jun-20

18

Dec-20

18

Jun-20

19

Dec-20

19

Jun-20

20

Dec-20

20

Dec-20

210

1

2

2

4

6


https://www.marketsmojo.com/Stocks?StockId=592009&Exchange=0&utm_source=Researchreport_Verdictpdf_291220210620





INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS COLLECTIVELYHOLD 60.92 % OF THE COMPANY

These investors have better capability and resourcesto analyse fundamentals of companies than mostretail investors.

Shareholding Snapshot : Sep 21Majority shareholders : FIIs

Pledged Promoter Holdings : None

Mutual Funds : Held in 43.00 Schemes (14.54%)

FIIs : Held by 1302 FIIs (38.23%)

Promoter with highest holding : Housing Development FinanceCorporation Limited ( Indirect Foreign Holdings) (19.17%)

Highest Public shareholder : Sbi-etf Nifty 50 (3.87%)

Individual Investors Holdings : 10.97%

FII holding has decreased by -1.16%

Number of FIIs holding stake in the company hasdecreased to 1302 from 1325

MOJO PROFESSIONAL 8



SHAREHOLDING

59.14%59.14% 60.09%60.09% 61.06%61.06% 61.02%61.02% 61.01%61.01% 60.92%60.92%

Jun 20 Sep 20 Dec 20 Mar 21 Jun 21 Sep 210%

25%

50%

75%

Promoters25.83%Promoters25.83%Mutual Funds

14.54%Mutual Funds14.54%

InsuranceCompanies2.94%

InsuranceCompanies2.94%

FIIs38.23%FIIs38.23%

Other18.57%Other18.57%

Non Instit…13.25%Non Instit…13.25%

Other DIIs5.21%Other DIIs5.21%

37.43%37.43% 39.35%39.35% 39.79%39.79% 39.39%39.39% 38.23%38.23%

Sep 2020 Dec 2020 Mar 2021 Jun 2021 Sep 20210%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%


BIGGEST COMPANY IN THE INDUSTRYPRIVATE BANKS.

HDFC Bank is 37.72% of the entire Private Banks Industry (by marketcap)

Contribution to Industry Size

HDFC Bank has been the largest company in theindustry for the past 5 years

HDFC Bank contributes 27.81% of theindustry’s Sales and 42.52% of Profits

Companies which form a sizable part of the industry generally enjoy a competitive edge due to the scale of their business

MOJO PROFESSIONAL 9



SIZE

Contribution to Industry Size

100100 100100 100100 100100 100100

63.1363.13 62.0762.07 63.4363.43 61.0861.08 62.2862.28

36.8736.87 37.9337.93 36.5736.57 38.9238.92 37.7237.72

Rest industry HDFC Bank

DEC-2017 DEC-2018 DEC-2019 DEC-2020 Dec-20210

50

100

150

27.81%27.81%

72.19%72.19%

42.52%42.52%

57.48%57.48%

HDFC Bank Rest of the Industry


MOJO PROFESSIONAL 10



FACTORSNOT WORKING

FOR THE COMPANY


STOCK IS TECHNICALLY IN A MILDLYBEARISH RANGE

Current Price

1,460.9050 Day Moving Average

0.00200 Day Moving Average

0.00

Mildly Bearish Daily Moving Averages indicating near term price weakness

Factors with downward momentum

Indicator Technical Trend

MACD Bearish (weekly)

MACD Mildly Bearish (monthly)

RSI Bearish (monthly)

Bollinger Band Mildly Bearish (weekly)

KST Bearish (weekly)

Dow Theory Mildly Bearish (weekly)

Underperformed the market in the last 1 year




TECHNICALS

3 Months

-9.59%-9.59%

-1.68%-1.68%

Stock BSE 500

1 Year

3.40%3.40%

29.96%29.96%

Stock BSE 500

3 Years

37.63%37.63%

62.63%62.63%

Stock BSE 500


UNDERPERFORMED THE MARKET IN THELAST 1 YEAR

3.40%UP

The stock has generateda return of 3.40% in thelast 1 year, much lowerthan market (BSE 500)returns of 29.96%

Underperfomer against Large Cap companies

4thQuartile

YTD1.68%

3rdQuartile

202012.97%

4thQuartile

2019-40.08%

HDFC Bank Ltd. has been in the Third andFourth Quartile in the YTD

Stock has been in the 3rd quartile in 2020and in 4th in YTD period

ReturnComparisonwith PeersClosest peers by

market cap

Company 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year 3 Years

HDFC Bank -1.96% -9.59% 3.4% 37.63%

ICICI Bank 1.95% 2.66% 41.49% 103.86%

Kotak Mah. Bank -9.54% -14.1% -10.64% 42.66%

Axis Bank 2.06% -14.39% 9.37% 8.02%

IndusInd Bank -5.41% -24.75% -1.62% -46.12%




RETURNS

HDFC Bank Ltd. BSE500

Dec-18

Aug-21

Feb-1

9Apr-

19Jun

-19

Aug-19Oct-

19

Dec-19

Jan-20

Mar-20

May-20

Jul-20

Sep-2

0

Nov-20

Dec-20

Feb-2

1Apr-

21Jun

-21Oct-

21

Dec-21

-50%

0%

50%

100%










RESULTANALYSIS


QUARTER RESULTS VARIANCE ANALYSIS

Standalone results triggered in Rs Cr

Sep'21 Jun'21 QoQ Sep'20 YoY Comments

Interest Earned 31,353 30,483 2.9% 29,977 4.6% QoQ and YoY increase

Other Income 7,401 6,289 17.7% 6,092 21.5% High Growth in previous quarterand same quarter last year

Total Income 38,754 36,771 5.4% 36,069 7.4% High Growth in previous quarterand same quarter last year

Interest Expended 13,669 13,474 1.5% 14,201 -3.7%

Net Interest Income 17,684 17,009 4% 15,776 12.1% QoQ and YoY increase

Total Expenditure (Excl Depreciation) 9,278 8,160 13.7% 8,055 15.2% High Growth in previous quarterand same quarter last year

Operating Profit Before Provisions andContingencies

15,807 15,137 4.4% 13,814 14.4% QoQ and YoY increase

Exceptional Items 0 0 0% 0 0%

Provisions and contingencies 3,925 4,831 -18.8% 3,704 6%

Profit Before Tax 11,883 10,306 15.3% 10,110 17.5% High Growth in previous quarterand same quarter last year

Tax 3,048 2,577 18.3% 2,597 17.4% High Growth in previous quarterand same quarter last year

Net Profit 8,834 7,730 14.3% 7,513 17.6% High Growth in previous quarterand same quarter last year

% of Net NPAs 0 0 -16.7% 0 135.3%

% of Gross NPAs 1 1 -8.2% 1 25%




QUARTERLY VARIANCE


INTEREST EARNED - YOY GROWTH IN YEARENDED MAR 2021 IS 5.27% VS 16.01% INMAR 2020

Net Profit: YoY Growth in year ended Mar 2021 is 18.51% vs 24.57% in Mar 2020

Operating Profit (PBDIT): YoY Growth in year ended Mar 2021 is 17.67% vs 22.64% in Mar2020

% of Net NPAs: YoY Growth in year ended Mar 2021 is 0.04% vs -0.03% in Mar 2020

% of Gross NPAs: YoY Growth in year ended Mar 2021 is 0.06% vs -0.10% in Mar 2020 5.27%INTEREST EARNED

KeyAnnual Results

Figures in Rs Cr | Seasonal companies are compared with the same quarter last year

Mar'21 Mar'20 Change(%)

Interest Earned 1,20,858.23 1,14,812.65 5.27%

Operating Profit (PBDIT) 57,361.84 48,749.55 17.67%

% of Net NPAs 0.40 0.36 0.04%

% of Gross NPAs 1.32 1.26 0.06%

Exceptional Items 0.00 0.00

Net Profit 31,116.53 26,257.32 18.51%

Interest Earned-YoY Growth in year ended Mar 2021 is 5.27%vs 16.01% in Mar 2020

Net Profit-YoY Growth in year ended Mar 2021 is 18.51% vs24.57% in Mar 2020

Operating Profit (PBDIT)-YoY Growth in year ended Mar 2021is 17.67% vs 22.64% in Mar 2020

% of Net NPAs-YoY Growth in year ended Mar 2021 is 0.04%vs -0.03% in Mar 2020

Figures in Rs Crore




ANNUAL RESULT

69,305.9669,305.96 80,241.3580,241.3598,972.0598,972.05 114,812.65114,812.65 120,858.23120,858.23

Mar 2017 Mar 2018 Mar 2019 Mar 2020 Mar 20210

100000

200000

14,549.6614,549.66 17,486.7517,486.75 21,078.1421,078.1426,257.3226,257.32

31,116.5331,116.53


25000

50000

25,732.3925,732.39 32,624.8132,624.81 39,749.7239,749.7248,749.5548,749.55

57,361.8457,361.84


50000

100000

0.33%0.33%0.40%0.40% 0.39%0.39% 0.36%0.36% 0.40%0.40%

Mar 2017 Mar 2018 Mar 2019 Mar 2020 Mar 20210%

0.25%

0.5%


BALANCE SHEET AND CASH FLOWANALYSIS

24.30% Increase

in Deposits in quarterended Mar 2020 vs in

Mar 2019Figures in Rs Cr

Mar'20 Mar'19 Change%

Deposits 11,47,502.29 9,23,140.93 24.30%

Advances 9,93,702.88 8,19,401.22 21.27%

Investments 3,91,826.66 2,93,116.07 33.68%

TOTAL ASSETS 15,30,511.27 12,44,540.69 22.98%

Advances: YoY Growth in year ended Mar 2020 is 21.27% vs 24.47% in Mar 2019

Investments: YoY Growth in year ended Mar 2020 is 33.68% vs 21.02% in Mar 2019

TOTAL ASSETS: YoY Growth in year ended Mar 2020 is 22.98% vs 16.97% in Mar 2019

348.62%GROWTH

Figures in Rs Cr

Cash From Operation - YoY Growth in year ended Mar2021 is 348.62% vs 70.23% in Mar 2020

Mar'21 Mar'20 Change%

Cash Flow from Operating Activities 41,494.79 -16,689.78 348.62%




BALANCESHEET AND CASHFLOW

23,585.4023,585.40 26,074.0726,074.07

-56,054.67-56,054.67

-16,689.78-16,689.78

41,494.7941,494.79

Mar 2017 Mar 2018 Mar 2019 Mar 2020 Mar 2021-100000

-50000

0

50000


PEER COMPARISONHDFC Bank ICICI Bank Kotak Mah.

BankAxis Bank IndusInd Bank

Size

Market Cap (Cr.) 809,689 511,049 352,087 207,186 66,046

Annual Sales (Cr.) 122,340 81,189 26,184 63,383 29,886

Annual Net Profit (Cr.) 33,509 19,469 7,210 9,087 3,817

Growth Factors

Net Interest Income Growth 1 year 15.7% 9.9% 12.2% 11.3% 8.9%

Net Profit Growth 1 year 17.5% 59.3% 14.6% 187.2% 40.9%

Net Interest Income Growth 5 year 18.3% 7% 16% 10.5% 18.9%

Net Profit Growth 5 year 20.1% 9% 20.1% 7.9% 8.3%

Capital Structure Factors

Tier 1 Capital Adequacy Ratio 18.7% 17.3% 20.8% 16.7% 15.8%

Loan to Deposit Ratio 85.2% 78.3% 80.5% 84.4% 80.2%

Management Quality Factors

ROA (latest) 1.8% 1.5% 1.8% 0.9% 1%

Gross NPA(latest) 1.4% 4.8% 3.2% 3.5% 2.8%

Coverage Ratio 70.9% 80.3% 67.5% 70.2% 71.6%

Cost to Income Ratio 36.3% 40.3% 44.2% 45.7% 42%

Net Interest Margin 3.8% 3.6% 4% 3.2% 4%

Pre-Provision Income to Assets 5.3% 4.7% 5.4% 4.4% 5.6%

Valuation Factors

PE Ratio 24.2 26.2 48.8 22.8 17.3

Price to Book 3.7 3.3 5.2 1.9 1.5

PEG Ratio 1.4 0.5 3.4 0.1 0.5

Dividend Yield 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% - 0.6%

Shareholding

Promoter Holdings 25.8% - 26% 11.6% 16.5%

Promoter Pledged Holdings - - - - 45.5%

Total Institutional Holding 60.9% 90% 57.9% 76.7% 70.4%

FII Holdings 38.2% 47.3% 42.6% 51.4% 51.4%

Returns

1 Month -2% 2% -9.6% 2.1% -5.4%

3 Months -9.6% 2.7% -14.1% -14.4% -24.8%

YTD 1.7% 37.6% -11.1% 8.9% -4.7%

1 Year 3.4% 41.5% -10.7% 9.4% -1.6%

3 Years 37.6% 103.9% 42.6% 8% -46.1%




PEER COMPARISION







COMPANY BACKGROUND

INDUSTRY : PrivateBanks

808,775 cr (Large Cap)

Part of SENSEX

About the CompanyHDFC Bank Ltd is one of India's premier banks. Headquartered in Mumbai, HDFCBank is a new generation private sector bank providing a wide range of bankingservices covering commercial and investment banking on the wholesale side andtransactional/branch banking on the retail side. As of 31 December 2020, thebank's distribution network stood at 5,485 branches and 15,541 ATMs & CashDeposit Machines(CDMs) across 2,866 cities and towns.

Kaizad Bharucha

Malay Patel

Umesh Chandra Sarangi

Srikanth Nadhamuni

SANDEEP PAREKH

Executive Director

Independent Director


Director


Board of Directors

7 more board of directors

Company Coordinates

Company Details:

H D F C Bank House, Senapati Bapat Marg, Lower Parel,

Mumbai Maharashtra : 400013

Tel: +91-22-66521000

Fax: +91-22-24960737

Website: www.hdfcbank.com

Registrat Details:

Datamatics Financial Services Ltd , (Formerly Datamatics

Financial Services Ltd) , Plot No A / 16 & A / 17, MIDC, Part B,

Cross Lane, Marol , Andheri (E), Mumbai

Fax: 022-8350217

Email: [email protected]




COMPANY BACKGROUND


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