This document is posted to help you gain knowledge. Please leave a comment to let me know what you think about it! Share it to your friends and learn new things together.
Transcript
Slide 1
Strength Down Centre? Ontarios Evolving Self-Image in the
Federation Jack Jedwab Association for Canadian Studies July-August
2009
Slide 2
2 Methodology A survey of 1511 Canadians, with an over sample
in Ontario of 583, were done by web panel during the week of May 28
th June 4 th, 2009. The survey was commissioned by the Association
for Canadian Studies (ACS) from the firm Leger Marketing. A
probabilistic random sample of the same size would yield a maximum
margin of error of 3.9 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Slide 3
3 Introduction Late last year, it was announced that Ontario,
long considered the economic engine of Canada, would receive
federal equalization payments for the first time in its history.
Ontario has also been experiencing difficulty in its manufacturing
industry for some time now, and is particularly hard-hit by the
recession. In addition, the Ontario government has been very vocal
about Ontario receiving less financial transfers from the federal
government than it is entitled to, as well as the issue of Ontarios
under- representation in the House of Commons. Though a majority of
Ontarians continue to be largely satisfied on various indicators
used to measure regional discontent, it is striking that increasing
numbers of Ontarians feel their province is not treated with
respect, lacks influence over national decisions, is not benefiting
from Canadian federalism, and, most significantly, has insufficient
fiscal capacity to fulfill its responsibilities. Over the past few
years, regional discontent regarding Canadian federalism has risen
more sharply in Ontario than anywhere else.
Slide 4
4 10 - year trend on whether the federal system is
advantageous. Source: CRIC, EKOS, ACS, PCO ACS polls from 2009
confirm the declining trend across Canada
Slide 5
5 Key Questions What explains the increase in regional
discontent among Ontarians? Does this increase represent a
fundamental shift involving a re-questioning of Ontarios place in
Confederation or is it a more cyclical, perhaps temporary
phenomenon linked to the recession, Ontarios new status as a
have-not province, and the Ontario governments fairness campaign?
How much of increasing regional discontent is an Ontario-specific
trend, how much of it is a reflection of a pan-Canadian trend, and
how much of it might be linked to broader global trends of citizen
disaffection with a perceived democratic deficit? How do Ontarians
view Ontarios place in the federation? Perception of Ontarios role,
status, treatment, outlook, identity? Captain Canada leadership
role or Ontario-first provincial interests and
orientation/approach? Conception of Canada? Federal? Multinational?
Unitary? Main source(s) of identity? Is there a distinctive
Ontarian identity? Preferred balance of federal-provincial powers?
Which level of government do Ontarians look to for leadership on
key issues? Heartland/economic engine of Canada or economically
disadvantaged region? Is Ontarians image of Ontario indicative of
changing economic conditions? Or does a cultural paradigm better
explain Ontarios self-image than does an economic paradigm? How
have these views evolved over time? How do these views compare to
the image that Canadians in other provinces have of their province?
What do Ontarians think of the role, status, treatment, outlook,
identity of other provinces and does this perception shape the way
Ontario positions itself? How do Canadians in other provinces see
Ontario? What does this analysis tell us regarding Ontarians
overall attitudes towards Canadian federalism, as well as the rest
of Canadas views regarding Ontario?
Slide 6
6 Demographics The survey contains an over-sample for Ontario
(+600) and a breakout of the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) in order to
pinpoint where trends are emerging from. Relevant data is presented
as both a demographic cross-section (by occupation, language,
income and age cohorts), as well as by province/region. Doing so
helps us to analyse trends at a micro level, in addition to a
cross-national evaluation. Several Ontario-only and
Ontario-specific questions were posed in order to elicit the
broadest range of responses to the issue of growing discontent. In
this same light, we asked for open-ended responses on the question
of Why is my province not treated with the respect it deserves in
Canada? and obtained fifty (50) unique responses!
Slide 7
7 Highlights Part 1 Ontario Ontarians and the State of the
Federation Ontarians still the most likely to think that their
province is treated with the respect it deserves in Canada - but
this is declining over time. Only Ontario has dipped in the last 6
months; continuing its downward progression Ontarians more likely
to think they have given up most for the good of Canada, rest of
Canada most likely to think they benefited most Majority of
Ontarians still believe federalism has more advantages Snapshot
view of Ontario reveals that even though most support federalism,
significant numbers feel that fairness is lacking; Ontarians
divided around focusing more on their own needs and respect which
with they are treated by the ROC Those who agree that Ontarians can
no longer worry about ROC feel less respected in Canada and are
somewhat less certain about federal advantage Those Fearing more
dependence on ROC feel less respected and perhaps paradoxically
also worry less about the rest of Canada Those feeling it is time
to worry less about the ROC much more likely to agree Ontario
should get more Though on a lesser scale even those feeling the
need to worry les about ROC still put Canadas interests first;
those feeling more dependent also think Ontario gives more than it
gets Ontarians think their contribution to Federation not
recognized, theyre taken for granted and others jealous of their
importance
Slide 8
8 Highlights Part 1 Ontario (Contd.) Significant gender
disparity in terms of respect accorded to Ontario While more
vulnerable Ontarians think its time to worry more about province
But more vulnerable Ontarians also think federalism has more
advantages Higher Earners contend national economy still depends on
Ontarios health Youth and Lower earners feel Ontario growing more
dependent Youth less inclined to agree there is lack of fairness to
Ontario Torontonians more likely to favor unitary vision of Canada;
GTA also assigns somewhat greater role to municipal government as
regards cultural diversity GTA sees more advantages than ROO when
it comes to federalism; also think Canadian economy more dependent
on Ontario GTA thinks Ontario should get more benefits from
Federation
Slide 9
9 Highlights Part 2 The State of the Federation With Respect to
the Provinces Maritimes most likely to think they do not get
adequate support from Feds Quebecers believe theyre ignored, they
receive less than other provinces and French fact not appreciated
Manitoba and Saskatchewan most likely to cite that Federal
government is more likely to favor bigger provinces Albertans
believe they give more than they get. British Columbians think too
much focus on Quebec and Ontario Identities: Required and Relative
responses When required to choose with what they most identify,
Canada tops list everywhere except Quebec; World and province
compete for second spot When forced to choose between Canadian and
provincial interests with exception of Quebec most would choose
Canada; Only in Ontario however would majority do so Equal
Provinces Idea no longer attractive; Quebec sees Canada as
multinational, ROC as many 33 million equals
Slide 10
10 Highlights Part 2 The State of the Federation (Contd.)
Canadas Regions: Equally Treated Unequally? Only majority of
Ontarians think people in the rest of Canada dont care West thinks
East doesnt care. East doesnt agree Most agree with the rest of
Canada that people outside of Quebec dont care about the province
Maritimers most likely to think others favored, Quebecers and BC
least likely to think so. Western provinces think Ontario is the
best treated; Ontario thinks its Quebec followed by West Outside of
Quebec there is little appetite for constitutional recognition of
Quebec difference Outside West not great appetite for action on
Western alienation Provincial and Federal Roles A quarter of
Ontarians think the Federal Govt. should have more power (highest
in Canada) and less than a third think the Provincial govt. should
have more power (lowest in Canada) Most Canadians agree provincial
governments should have power Majority of Canadians think federal
government best equipped to deal with economy and climate change
All provinces think federal government best equipped to deal with
economic issues Provinces seen as best equipped to deal with health
care especially Quebec All provinces think federal government best
equipped to deal with climate change Provinces seen as best
equipped to deal with crime and public safety except Ontario and
Alberta which believe municipalities best positioned to do so
Majority of Quebecers think that province is best positioned to
deal with cultural diversity, BC divided between province and
federal government and rest of Canada believes federal government
best positioned to do so
Slide 11
11 Executive Summary
Slide 12
12 Respecting Ontarios Contributions An analyses of the data
set showed that the increasing regional discontent does not appear
to be Ontario specific even though, in comparison with ACS January
2009 survey, the results from June reveal a very slight decline in
the extent to which Ontarians believe their province is treated
with respect. And even though Ontarians sense that their province
is treated with the respect it deserves has declined over time,
this reflects a broader Canadian trend and is not specific to the
province. Hence, since we have surmised based on the previous
surveys that such sentiment is likely connected to the economic
situation, it may indeed be a temporary phenomenon. It is also
worth keeping in mind that despite the provinces growing economic
vulnerability, a majority of its population is still believes that
the province is treated with respect.
Slide 13
13 Exploring Ontarios Role and Image Though Ontarians still
believe they have a special leadership role to play in the
federation and are its principal driver, there is a growing concern
on the part of the population with the provinces economic
vulnerability. A narrow majority of Ontarians feel that Ontario is
becoming more dependant economically on the rest of Canada and that
Ontarians can no longer afford to worry about the rest of Canada,
as it time to focus on their own needs. Ontarians continue to view
themselves as playing a central role the federation and the
preferred vision of the country held by the majority is one with 33
million equal citizens, with a significant minority agreeing that
Canada is multinational.
Slide 14
14 Ontarios Place in the Federation Ontarians are the least
likely to think that the provinces should have more power and
roughly divided in three between the province having more power,
keeping the status quo and giving more power to the federal
government. That position is better reconciled with the preferences
as to which level of government is best positioned to address
various issues. Despite a desire in each of the provinces for the
provincial government to have more power, when it comes to such
issues as the economy and the environment, it is widely agreed that
the federal government is best positioned to address such matters.
Ontarians are most likely to believe this.
Slide 15
15 PART I Ontarians and the State of the Federation
Slide 16
16 DUPLICATE SLIDE
Slide 17
17 Is Your Province Treated With Respect? 1998-2009 (June), by
Region People who responded YES to the question: In your opinion,
is your province/territory treated with the respect it deserves in
Canada or not? Sources: CRIC, EKOS, ACS-Leger Only Ontario has
dipped in the last 6 months; continuing its downward
progression
Slide 18
18 Ontarians more likely to think they have given up most for
the good of Canada, rest of Canada most likely to think they
benefited most Source: ACS-Leger June 2009
Slide 19
19 Majority of Ontarians still believe federalism has more
advantages Source: ACS-Leger June 2009
Slide 20
20 Snapshot view of Ontario reveals that even though most
support federalism, significant numbers feel that fairness is
lacking; Ontarians divided around focusing more on their own needs
and respect which with they are treated by the ROC
Slide 21
21 Those who agree that Ontarians can no longer worry about ROC
feel less respected in Canada and are somewhat less certain about
federal advantage Ontarians can no longer afford to worry about the
rest of Canada AgreeDisagree Agree My province is treated with the
respect it deserves in Canada 4862.1 My province is treated with
the respect it deserves by Canadians in other parts of the country
45.562.2 People in other parts of Canada do nor care about Ontario
64.552.9 Ontario has generally played a special leadership role in
the federation 9185 All things considered federalism has more
advantages than disadvantages for Ontario 55.669.2
Slide 22
22 Those Fearing more dependence on ROC feel less respected and
perhaps paradoxically also worry less about the rest of Canada Fear
that Ontario is becoming economically dependent on the rest of
Canada AgreeDisagree Agree My province is treated with the respect
it deserves in Canada 44.665.4 My province is treated with the
respect it deserves by Canadians in other parts of the country
46.562 People in other parts of Canada do nor care about Ontario
68.948.6 Ontario has generally played a special leadership role in
the federation 91.182.4 Ontarians can no longer afford to worry
about the rest of Canada 58.745
Slide 23
23 Those feeling it is time to worry less about the ROC much
more likely to agree Ontario should get more
Slide 24
24 Though on a lesser scale even those feeling the need to
worry les about ROC still put Canadas interests first; those
feeling more dependent also think Ontario gives more than it
gets
Slide 25
25 Ontarians think their contribution to Federation not
recognized, theyre taken for granted and others jealous of their
importance Why do you feel that your province is not getting the
respect it deserves? ON Total Everyone hates Ontario / Everyone is
bashing Ontario 12.5%4.2% The attitude of the Conservative
government / The attitude of the Harper government 3.5%1.2% Ontario
is the wealthiest province in Canada / Ontario is the economic
engine of Canada 11.0%3.7% Ontario contributes a lot on the federal
level / contributes a lot to support other provinces but gets less
or no tax transfers in return 18.0%6.0% Ontario's needs are
minimized / Ontario is perceived as a "Have " province when it's a
"Have not" province / Ontario is still portrayed as a rich province
though it has been hit hard by the recession 19.2%6.4% Regional
divisions in Canada / Regional rivalries ( West Vs East) 3.5%1.2%
According to what I've heard from other Canadians 3.1%1.0%
According to what I've seen, read or heard in the media 1.6%.5% The
province of Quebec is treated better 3.5%1.2% The impression that
federal power is concentrated in Ontario 2.7%.9% Ontario is
perceived as arrogant / Impression that Ontario and Ontarians have
a superiority complex 3.1%1.0% Source: ACS-Leger June 2009
Slide 26
26 Significant gender disparity in terms of respect accorded to
Ontario Source: ACS-Leger Poll June 2009 Women Men Women
Slide 27
27 While more vulnerable Ontarians think its time to worry more
about province Source: ACS -Leger June 2009
Slide 28
28 But more vulnerable Ontarians also think federalism has more
advantages Source: ACS-Leger June 2009
Slide 29
29 Higher Earners contend national economy still depends on
Ontarios health Source: ACS-Leger June 2009
Slide 30
30 Youth and Lower earners feel Ontario growing more dependent
Source: ACS-Leger June 2009
Slide 31
31 Youth less inclined to agree there is lack of fairness to
Ontario Source: ACS-Leger June 2009
Slide 32
32 Torontonians more likely to favor unitary vision of Canada;
GTA also assigns somewhat greater role to municipal government as
regards cultural diversity
Slide 33
33 GTA sees more advantages than ROO when it comes to
federalism; also think Canadian economy more dependent on
Ontario
Slide 34
34 GTA thinks Ontario should get more benefits from
Federation
Slide 35
35 PART II With Respect to the Provinces
Slide 36
36 DUPLICATE SLIDE
Slide 37
37 Maritimes most likely to think they do not get adequate
support from Feds Why do you feel that your province is not getting
the respect it deserves? ATLANTIC Total Maritime provinces are poor
provinces / They are considered as "Have not" / They're considered
as welfare provinces 8.7%.8% Maritime provinces don't get enough
support from the federal government 18.8%1.7% Much effort is put
into Central and West Canada / Bigger provinces 7.2%.7% Maritime
provinces are not considered as important / Maritime provinces are
not considered as a priority 13.0%1.2% Many broken promises /
Failure to live up to many obligations / Backing out form the
Atlantic Accord 15.9%1.4% The Maritime provinces are not well known
in the rest of Canada 2.9%.3% Negative comments from Steven Harper
/ From the conservatives 2.9%.3% Source: ACS-Leger June 2009
Slide 38
38 Quebecers believe theyre ignored, they receive less than
other provinces and French fact not appreciated Why do you feel
that your province is not getting the respect it deserves? QCTotal
Because of the French factor / Because of the French language
13.9%3.7% The attitude of the Conservative government towards
Quebec / The attitude of the Harper government towards Quebec
6.9%1.8% The province of Quebec is often neglected / The province
of Quebec is often ignored / Nothing is done for Quebec 16.8%4.4%
Other provinces receive more in tax transfers from the federal
government than Quebec / Quebec receives less than other provinces
11.4%3.0% There has always been a fundamental difference between
Quebec and the rest of Canada / Quebec has always been different
from the rest of Canada. 6.9%1.8% The province of Quebec is often
perceived as a separatist province / Quebeckers are often perceived
as separatists 1.5%.4% The province of Quebec is not respected
6.4%1.7% Ottawa has too much power over Quebec 3.5%.9% We are
highly taxed 3.5%.9% Because of the fiscal imbalance / The needs
are in Quebec but the money is in Ottawa.5%.1% Quebec contributes a
lot on the federal level / contributes a lot to support other
provinces but gets less or no tax transfers in return 1.5%.4%
Quebec is not recognized as a different province although it is /
Quebec is not recognized as a distinct province 5.0%1.3% Feeling of
injustice / We're treated differently if we're from Quebec 2.0%.5%
Source: ACS-Leger June 2009
Slide 39
39 Manitoba and Saskatchewan most likely to cite that Federal
government is more likely to favor bigger provinces Why do you feel
that your province is not getting the respect it deserves?
MB/SKTotal Because of our small population we don't have strong
representation in government 13.4%1.2% Too much focus on populated
provinces (Alberta, Quebec, B.C., Ontario) 22.4%2.0% Incorrect
distribution of funds / Unfair distribution of funds 6.0%.5% We are
thought of poorly / Negative stereotypes 9.0%.8% We are largely
ignored by the federal government / Last priority for the
government 16.4%1.4% We got shafted by the Harper government / The
Tories broke many campaign promises 3.0%.3% We pay high taxes and
don't get the help we need for our aboriginals 3.0%.3% Conservative
government doesn't want to work with Socialist NDP government
1.5%.1% Source: ACS-Leger June 2009
Slide 40
40 Albertans believe they give more than they get. Why do you
feel that your province is not getting the respect it deserves?
ABTotal We're known as rednecks / Texas North 8.1%.8% We send our
equalization payments and don't get much in return 20.3%2.0%
Despite Alberta's large economic contribution they don't have much
representation due to small population / Demographics 12.2%1.2% Our
main commodity is put down by the rest of Canada 9.5%.9% All the
focus is on Quebec and Ontario 5.4%.5% Quebec and Ontario don't
understand the west / resent the west 4.1%.4% None of the provinces
treat each other with respect 1.4%.1% Inequality of transfer
payments 8.1%.8% We subsidize Quebec so much and they still whine
and complain 2.7%.3% The west is neglected / not considered
important 13.5%1.3% Source: ACS-Leger June 2009
Slide 41
41 British Columbians think too much focus on Quebec and
Ontario Why do you feel that your province is not getting the
respect it deserves? BCTotal All the focus is on the east (Quebec
and Ontario) 37.4%4.8% Don't have a say in government because of
smaller population / Poor representation in government because of
small population 10.1%1.3% We have corrupt politicians /
Politicians care only about lining their pockets 3.0%.4% We send
our equalization payments and don't get much in return 3.0%.4%
Distance to Ottawa is too great and as such we are forgotten
7.1%.9% No government help in B.C. / Not enough tax dollars spent
in B.C. 5.1%.7% We are not highly regarded by the east where the
government operates / Ignored by the government 9.1%1.2% Source:
ACS-Leger June 2009
Slide 42
42 Summary and Conclusions The preceding analysis tries to
argue that Ontarians are certainly concerned with the economic
situation and the survey also suggests that there has been an
impact on the provinces self image. But it is difficult to draw
strong conclusions around whether other provinces self-image has
shifted as a consequence of the economic decline as some of the
questions posed represent the first time the inquiry has been
conducted in this manner. It is worth noting that across the
country there is a tendency that no ones province is getting a fair
shake and many readily point to another province that they believe
to be getting a better deal. More often than not, Ontario is often
singled out (particularly in the West) as the province that is
getting the best deal. There is a degree of symmetry in the
perceptions that Ontarians have of the rest of Canada and the rest
of Canada has of Ontario. One might say that there is a widespread
sentiment that regions are equally treated unequally. And even
though Ontarians may express more concern with their present
condition, they do not appear to desire any major change to the
federation. In effect, the provincial government does not appear to
be the place around which Ontarians are looking for solutions or
strong leadership to deal with their economic vulnerability.
Slide 43
43 Supplementary Sections
Slide 44
44 PART III Identities: Required and Relative responses
Slide 45
45 When required to choose with what they most identify, Canada
tops list everywhere except Quebec; World and province compete for
second spot With which group do you identify the most ?
WorldCanadaProvinceCity Language Community Ethnic Community or
Visible Minority GroupNone Atlantic 7%64%13%2% 1%7%
QC16.9%20%43.9%8.9%3.9% 4.7% ON13.7%61.1%6.7%9.1%1.2%1%3.9%
MB/SK9%64%19%1% - 2% AB16%53.8%17.3%5.1%0.6% 5.8%
BC16.8%44.1%15.3%5%0%1%10.4%
Total14.3%48.6%19.1%7%1.6%0.7%5.4%
Slide 46
46 When forced to choose between Canadian and provincial
interests with exception of Quebec most would choose Canada; Only
in Ontario however would majority do so Source: ACS-Leger 2009
Slide 47
47 Equal Provinces Idea no longer attractive; Quebec sees
Canada as multinational, ROC as many 33 million equals Source:
ACS-Leger June 2009
Slide 48
48 PART IV Canadas Regions: Equally Treated Unequally?
Slide 49
49 Only majority of Ontarians think people in the rest of
Canada dont care Source: ACS-Leger June 2009
Slide 50
50 West think East doesnt care. East doesnt agree Source:
ACS-Leger June 2009
Slide 51
51 Most agree with the rest of Canada that people outside of
Quebec dont care about the province Source: ACS-Leger June
2009
Slide 52
52 Maritimers most likely to think others favored, Quebecers
and BC least likely to think so.
Slide 53
53 Western provinces think Ontario is the best treated; Ontario
thinks its Quebec followed by West 1 st Mention Which region
receives the most favorable treatment? Western CanadaOntarioQuebec
Atlantic Canada I don't know/I prefer not answering Atlantic
21%35%26%7%11% QC 54.8%23.3%5.3%1.8%14.8% ON
30.2%14.7%41.2%5.0%8.9% MB/SK 3%60%31% - 6% AB 5.8%73.0%17.5% -
3.6% BC 6.3%69.4%21.9% - 2.5%
Slide 54
54 Outside of Quebec there is little appetite for
constitutional recognition of Quebec difference Source: ACS-Leger
June 2009
Slide 55
55 Outside West not great appetite for action on Western
alienation
Slide 56
56 PART V Provincial and Federal Roles
Slide 57
57 A quarter of Ontarians think the Federal Govt. should have
more power (highest in Canada) and less than a third think the
Provincial govt. should have more power (lowest in Canada)
Slide 58
58 Most Canadians agree provincial governments should have
power
Slide 59
59 Majority of Canadians think federal government best equipped
to deal with economy and climate change Source: ACS-Leger June
2009
Slide 60
60 All provinces think federal government best equipped to deal
with economic issues
Slide 61
61 Provinces seen as best equipped to deal with health care
especially Quebec
Slide 62
62 All provinces think federal government best equipped to deal
with climate change
Slide 63
63 Provinces seen as best equipped to deal with crime and
public safety except Ontario and Alberta which believe
municipalities best positioned to do so
Slide 64
64 Majority of Quebecers think that province is best positioned
to deal with cultural diversity, BC divided between province and
federal government and rest of Canada believes federal government
best positioned to do so