Dec 06, 2014
Customers• Increasing complaints from customers about traffic
(especially after High Street intersection closed)
• One older customer gave up after attempting a trial run
Other Businesses• South Limestone businesses closing, letting employees go
• Similar business: Sales “fell off a cliff” in August & September
• Festival Market business owner / customer: “Business sucks”
ANECDOTES
Two Questions:
How many of our customers come from South Lexington?
How has that changed since South Limestone closure?
40503
40504
40513
40356
4051440517
IMPACTS
30Percent
Southside
of Lowell’s Customer Base
IMPACTS
30Percent
Southside
of Lowell’s Customer Base
IMPACTS
30Percent
Southside
of Lowell’s Customer Base
¼ After Closure
¾ of Southside customers lost
Since July 22nd, a full 1/3 of those South Lexington and Nicholasville customers have evaporated
IMPACTS
30Percent
Southside
of Lowell’s Customer Base
¼ After Closure
¾ of Southside customers lostZero drop in rest of customer base
IMPACTS
If Lowell’s lost 10% of customers following South Lime closure…
What is the impact to all of downtown?
South Limestone
25,000
South Broadway
36,000
TRAFFIC
South Broadway
61,000
TRAFFIC
South Broadway
61,000
West Main
19,000
TRAFFIC
South Broadway
61,000
West Main
19,000
Old Frankfort Pike
7,000
TRAFFIC
South Broadway
61,000
West Main
19,000
Old Frankfort Pike
7,000
Over 90,000 vehicles in disrupted traffic
patterns
20% of all drivers
TRAFFIC
True Costs of Traffic
45 mins = 5% of waking hours
TRAFFIC
True Costs of Traffic
45 mins = 5% of waking hours
Retail Office Service Quality of Life
Not buying at stores or restaurants
Not working or producing
Not delivering goods and services
Not spending time with family and friends
TRAFFIC
$
Downtown
of Local Economy
8%
Impact
Hit to Downtown Businesses
-5%11
Billion
Lexington
Size of Economy
$
TRUE COST
Downtown
of Local Economy
8%
Impact
Hit to Downtown Businesses
-5%11
Billion
Lexington
Size of Economy
$
84 to 92Million
Business Costs$ $
Lost Business Attributable to South Lime Closure
A 2x economic multiplier assumed for loss calculations
TRUE COST
84 to 92Million
Business Costs$ $
Lost Business Attributable to South Lime Closure
TRUE COST
84 to 92Million
Business Costs$ $
Lost Business Attributable to South Lime Closure
360,000$
per Day
TRUE COST
84 to 92Million
Business Costs$ $
Lost Business Attributable to South Lime Closure
700 to 1,000+Jobs
TRUE COST
84 to 92Million
Business Costs$ $
Lost Business Attributable to South Lime Closure
9 or 13 or 15 or 17Million
$ $$ $Project Costs
Direct Construction Costs
TRUE COST
84 to 92Million
Business Costs$ $
Lost Business Attributable to South Lime Closure
9 or 13 or 15 or 17Million
Project Costs$ $
Direct Construction Costs
$ $
90 to 110Million
Total Costs$ $
TRUE COST
When will a beautified South Limestone return $100 million or 1,000
jobs to Lexington’s economy?
“Are these numbers right?”
A QUESTION
“Are these numbers right?”Wrong Question
A QUESTION
Right Question:
“How did we let ourselves vote for such economic devastation without
any idea of the true impacts?”
A BETTER QUESTION
TWITTER TRAFFIC
Walking Tour
Since you saw devastation first-hand
2Weeks
Business Owners
Since businesses pleaded for help
3Weeks
A 2x economic multiplier assumed for loss calculations
TRUE COST
Walking Tour
Since you saw devastation first-hand
2Weeks
Business Owners
Since businesses pleaded for help
3Weeks
When will LFUCG address $100 million hole in our city?
A 2x economic multiplier assumed for loss calculations
TRUE COST
South Limestone:What to do
Commissioner Webb & Project Manager Milligan have already identified how to accelerate the
completion of South Limestone.
They just aren’t willing to do so.
SEEDS TO SOLUTION
Ask for more people / effort from utilities
SEEDS TO SOLUTION
Ask cement company to stay open past 5PM
Deal with noise ordinances
Ask for more people / effort from utilities
SEEDS TO SOLUTION
Ask cement company to stay open past 5PM
Deal with noise ordinances
Uncomfortable
Uncomfortable
Uncomfortable
$100 million is at stake.
1000 jobs are at stake.
$100 million is at stake.
1000 jobs are at stake.
Get over your discomfort.
Cheapside | Vine | Main:What to do
Give “full faith and credit” to no one.
SEEDS TO SOLUTION
Give “full faith and credit” to no one.
Only trust detailed plans of execution.
SEEDS TO SOLUTION
PRETTY PICTURES
The problem?
PRETTY PICTURES
The problem?
This isn’t South Lime…
PRETTY PICTURES
Gleaming Marble Sidewalks?
Non-Existent Buildings & Storefronts
PRETTY PICTURES
REALITY
REALITY
PRETTY PICTURES
PRETTY PICTURES
Without detailed plans of execution,it’s just a picture
KEY QUESTIONS
• Could all three streets, as with South Limestone, be completely closed?
• Which sections of which streets will be closed? For what periods? What is the planned sequence of closures?
• When can each business on the affected streets expect their businesses to be interrupted?
• How long will such business interruptions last? What will those interruptions look like? Where will they be most severe?
• How can we accelerate the project where business interruptions will be most profound?
• Can we sequence closures around business cycles? Could retailers be least affected during the holiday shopping season? Could work near outdoor cafés be completed by spring?
• How will the city or DDA assist businesses during the closures? How will such assistance be more effective than what was done for South Limestone? Targeted ad campaigns? Special events? Shuttle services from parking garages?
• Will drivers need to find alternate routes (as with South Limestone)?
• What are the likely sources of project delay? How will those be mitigated?
SIGNS OF FAILURE
If they can’t provide step-by-step sequence of how the project will unfold…
Lack of Detail
SIGNS OF FAILURE
If they can’t provide step-by-step sequence of how the project will unfold…Fail
Lack of Detail
SIGNS OF FAILURE
Economic Impact Estimate
If they can’t provide an estimate of the true
economic disruption caused by the new
streetscapes…
SIGNS OF FAILURE
Economic Impact Estimate
If they can’t provide an estimate of the true
economic disruption caused by the new
streetscapes…Fail
SIGNS OF FAILURE
Pretty Pictures
SIGNS OF FAILURE
Fail
Pretty Pictures
Vague Assurances
“We’ll take care not to disrupt businesses…”
SIGNS OF FAILURE
Vague Assurances
SIGNS OF FAILURE
Vague Assurances
Fail
SIGNS OF FAILURE
SIGNS OF FAILURE
Lack of Detail
No Economic Estimates
Pretty Pictures
Vague Assurances