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Streetscapes

Dec 06, 2014

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News & Politics

Rob Morris

An analysis of the impacts of Lexington's closure of South Limestone and the resultant loss of business and quality of life in our community.
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Page 1: Streetscapes
Page 2: Streetscapes

Customers• Increasing complaints from customers about traffic

(especially after High Street intersection closed)

• One older customer gave up after attempting a trial run

Other Businesses• South Limestone businesses closing, letting employees go

• Similar business: Sales “fell off a cliff” in August & September

• Festival Market business owner / customer: “Business sucks”

ANECDOTES

Page 3: Streetscapes

Two Questions:

How many of our customers come from South Lexington?

How has that changed since South Limestone closure?

Page 4: Streetscapes

40503

40504

40513

40356

4051440517

IMPACTS

Page 5: Streetscapes

30Percent

Southside

of Lowell’s Customer Base

IMPACTS

Page 6: Streetscapes

30Percent

Southside

of Lowell’s Customer Base

IMPACTS

Page 7: Streetscapes

30Percent

Southside

of Lowell’s Customer Base

¼ After Closure

¾ of Southside customers lost

Since July 22nd, a full 1/3 of those South Lexington and Nicholasville customers have evaporated

IMPACTS

Page 8: Streetscapes

30Percent

Southside

of Lowell’s Customer Base

¼ After Closure

¾ of Southside customers lostZero drop in rest of customer base

IMPACTS

Page 9: Streetscapes

If Lowell’s lost 10% of customers following South Lime closure…

What is the impact to all of downtown?

Page 10: Streetscapes

South Limestone

25,000

South Broadway

36,000

TRAFFIC

Page 11: Streetscapes

South Broadway

61,000

TRAFFIC

Page 12: Streetscapes

South Broadway

61,000

West Main

19,000

TRAFFIC

Page 13: Streetscapes

South Broadway

61,000

West Main

19,000

Old Frankfort Pike

7,000

TRAFFIC

Page 14: Streetscapes

South Broadway

61,000

West Main

19,000

Old Frankfort Pike

7,000

Over 90,000 vehicles in disrupted traffic

patterns

20% of all drivers

TRAFFIC

Page 15: Streetscapes

True Costs of Traffic

45 mins = 5% of waking hours

TRAFFIC

Page 16: Streetscapes

True Costs of Traffic

45 mins = 5% of waking hours

Retail Office Service Quality of Life

Not buying at stores or restaurants

Not working or producing

Not delivering goods and services

Not spending time with family and friends

TRAFFIC

Page 17: Streetscapes

$

Downtown

of Local Economy

8%

Impact

Hit to Downtown Businesses

-5%11

Billion

Lexington

Size of Economy

$

TRUE COST

Page 18: Streetscapes

Downtown

of Local Economy

8%

Impact

Hit to Downtown Businesses

-5%11

Billion

Lexington

Size of Economy

$

84 to 92Million

Business Costs$ $

Lost Business Attributable to South Lime Closure

A 2x economic multiplier assumed for loss calculations

TRUE COST

Page 19: Streetscapes

84 to 92Million

Business Costs$ $

Lost Business Attributable to South Lime Closure

TRUE COST

Page 20: Streetscapes

84 to 92Million

Business Costs$ $

Lost Business Attributable to South Lime Closure

360,000$

per Day

TRUE COST

Page 21: Streetscapes

84 to 92Million

Business Costs$ $

Lost Business Attributable to South Lime Closure

700 to 1,000+Jobs

TRUE COST

Page 22: Streetscapes

84 to 92Million

Business Costs$ $

Lost Business Attributable to South Lime Closure

9 or 13 or 15 or 17Million

$ $$ $Project Costs

Direct Construction Costs

TRUE COST

Page 23: Streetscapes

84 to 92Million

Business Costs$ $

Lost Business Attributable to South Lime Closure

9 or 13 or 15 or 17Million

Project Costs$ $

Direct Construction Costs

$ $

90 to 110Million

Total Costs$ $

TRUE COST

Page 24: Streetscapes

When will a beautified South Limestone return $100 million or 1,000

jobs to Lexington’s economy?

Page 25: Streetscapes

“Are these numbers right?”

A QUESTION

Page 26: Streetscapes

“Are these numbers right?”Wrong Question

A QUESTION

Page 27: Streetscapes

Right Question:

“How did we let ourselves vote for such economic devastation without

any idea of the true impacts?”

A BETTER QUESTION

Page 28: Streetscapes

TWITTER TRAFFIC

Page 29: Streetscapes

Walking Tour

Since you saw devastation first-hand

2Weeks

Business Owners

Since businesses pleaded for help

3Weeks

A 2x economic multiplier assumed for loss calculations

TRUE COST

Page 30: Streetscapes

Walking Tour

Since you saw devastation first-hand

2Weeks

Business Owners

Since businesses pleaded for help

3Weeks

When will LFUCG address $100 million hole in our city?

A 2x economic multiplier assumed for loss calculations

TRUE COST

Page 31: Streetscapes

South Limestone:What to do

Page 32: Streetscapes

Commissioner Webb & Project Manager Milligan have already identified how to accelerate the

completion of South Limestone.

They just aren’t willing to do so.

SEEDS TO SOLUTION

Page 33: Streetscapes

Ask for more people / effort from utilities

SEEDS TO SOLUTION

Ask cement company to stay open past 5PM

Deal with noise ordinances

Page 34: Streetscapes

Ask for more people / effort from utilities

SEEDS TO SOLUTION

Ask cement company to stay open past 5PM

Deal with noise ordinances

Uncomfortable

Uncomfortable

Uncomfortable

Page 35: Streetscapes

$100 million is at stake.

1000 jobs are at stake.

Page 36: Streetscapes

$100 million is at stake.

1000 jobs are at stake.

Get over your discomfort.

Page 37: Streetscapes

Cheapside | Vine | Main:What to do

Page 38: Streetscapes

Give “full faith and credit” to no one.

SEEDS TO SOLUTION

Page 39: Streetscapes

Give “full faith and credit” to no one.

Only trust detailed plans of execution.

SEEDS TO SOLUTION

Page 40: Streetscapes

PRETTY PICTURES

Page 41: Streetscapes

The problem?

PRETTY PICTURES

Page 42: Streetscapes

The problem?

This isn’t South Lime…

PRETTY PICTURES

Page 43: Streetscapes

Gleaming Marble Sidewalks?

Non-Existent Buildings & Storefronts

PRETTY PICTURES

Page 44: Streetscapes

REALITY

Page 45: Streetscapes

REALITY

Page 46: Streetscapes

PRETTY PICTURES

Page 47: Streetscapes

PRETTY PICTURES

Without detailed plans of execution,it’s just a picture

Page 48: Streetscapes

KEY QUESTIONS

• Could all three streets, as with South Limestone, be completely closed?

• Which sections of which streets will be closed? For what periods? What is the planned sequence of closures?

• When can each business on the affected streets expect their businesses to be interrupted?

• How long will such business interruptions last? What will those interruptions look like? Where will they be most severe?

• How can we accelerate the project where business interruptions will be most profound?

• Can we sequence closures around business cycles? Could retailers be least affected during the holiday shopping season? Could work near outdoor cafés be completed by spring?

• How will the city or DDA assist businesses during the closures? How will such assistance be more effective than what was done for South Limestone? Targeted ad campaigns? Special events? Shuttle services from parking garages?

• Will drivers need to find alternate routes (as with South Limestone)?

• What are the likely sources of project delay? How will those be mitigated?

Page 49: Streetscapes

SIGNS OF FAILURE

If they can’t provide step-by-step sequence of how the project will unfold…

Lack of Detail

Page 50: Streetscapes

SIGNS OF FAILURE

If they can’t provide step-by-step sequence of how the project will unfold…Fail

Lack of Detail

Page 51: Streetscapes

SIGNS OF FAILURE

Economic Impact Estimate

If they can’t provide an estimate of the true

economic disruption caused by the new

streetscapes…

Page 52: Streetscapes

SIGNS OF FAILURE

Economic Impact Estimate

If they can’t provide an estimate of the true

economic disruption caused by the new

streetscapes…Fail

Page 53: Streetscapes

SIGNS OF FAILURE

Pretty Pictures

Page 54: Streetscapes

SIGNS OF FAILURE

Fail

Pretty Pictures

Page 55: Streetscapes

Vague Assurances

“We’ll take care not to disrupt businesses…”

SIGNS OF FAILURE

Page 56: Streetscapes

Vague Assurances

SIGNS OF FAILURE

Page 57: Streetscapes

Vague Assurances

Fail

SIGNS OF FAILURE

Page 58: Streetscapes

SIGNS OF FAILURE

Lack of Detail

No Economic Estimates

Pretty Pictures

Vague Assurances

Page 59: Streetscapes