Strategy of electric power industry development in Russia for the period up to 2030

1

Strategy of electric power industry development

in Russia for the period up to 2030

1

Director of OJSC «ENIN», Academician of RAS Eduard P. Volkov

2

Main purposes of strategy• Providing the energy security of the country.• Increasing of the efficiency of production,

transport, electricity distribution and usage up to the level of developed world countries.

• Providing the reliability of Russian power companies (UES of Russia) and the reliability of electricity supply of consumers on the level of developed countries.

• Fulfillment of environmental standards in accordance with the adopted international commitments and national standards.

3

Basic economic conditions:forecasted growth of GDP by 2030 in 4.4 times in variant with 2000 TWh and in 6.4 times in variant with 3000 TWh

2005 20

10 2015 20

20 2025 20

30

2000

TW

h

3000

TW

h

6,4

4,15

2,75

1,88

1,34

1

4,43,45

2,55

1,85

1,341 0

1234567

GD

P gr

owth

by

2005

A concept of accelerated A concept of accelerated development is adopted development is adopted

for for 33000 TWh 000 TWh – a formation of

the world leadership in production of the materials of ligh-level processing in

the basis of high-technological conversion of

natural and power resources

4

Levels of inside electricity consumption for 2000 GWh

1484

1756

2028

2300

1364

1576

1788

2000

1092

1244

1396

1548

1700

12121152

940

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Years

GW

h RaisedBasicReduced

Concept of MEDT 2020 2030 Scenario 1 1410-1430 1770-1790Scenario 2, 3 1630-1660 2150-2190Variant 3 с 1740-1770 2400

5

Heat production by centralized sources for 2000 TWh

1713

18421971

2100

16331722

18111900

1553 1602 165117001584

15441455

1504

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030years

milli

on G

cal

raisedbasicreduced

6

Production and export of gas and petroleum

2006 2010 2015 2020 2030

Gas recovery,billion m3

656.3 702-717 750-842 815-900 900-950

Gas export, billion m3 202.8 218-223 243-303 280-315 283-320

Oil productionmillion t

480 492-514 500-530 500-545 490-540

Oil export,million t 248.4 254-269 255-275 255-280 245-265

7

Price conditions at the fuel markets:the world trend of oil price growth by 2030 up to 80-100 $ per barrel and output of inner gas prices for the equilibrium with

Europe up to 2010 will change sharply the fuel supply of electric power industry

8

Hydro energy potential

Region

Hydro energy potential, TWh

Degree of hydro energy potential development by operating HES and HES under construction, %

European part (with Ural)Eastern regions, including SiberiaFar EastTotal

120

730430300850

52.1

18.627.56.323.5

9

Resources of non-traditional renewable sources in Russia

Resources Gross potentialmillion tce/year

Technical potential

million tce/year

Economic potential

million tce/year

Small hydro energy 360,4 124,6 65,2Geothermal energy * * 115*Biomass energy 10 103 53 35Wind energy 26 103 2000 10.0Solar energy 2.3 106 2300 12.5Low-potential heat 525 115 36

Total for RES 2.34 106 4592.6 273.7

By approximate evaluation the geothermal energy resources in the upper width with a depth up to 3 km constitute about 180 trillion tce, while the natural resources for utilization - about 20 trillion tce. The evaluation of resources of primary development of thermal energy waters and steam hydrotherms using the geocirculating technology was assumed to be the economic potential.

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New technologies

1. Energy-technology plants.2. Solid fuel gasification and use of

combined cycle.3. Nuclear-hydrogen power engineering.4. Controlled transmission lines.5. Technologies using the superconductivity

phenomenon.

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Installed capacity of electric power stations (N, GW) and electricity generation (Е, billion kWh/year) in Russia

(basic variant with 2000 TWh)

0

100

200

300

400

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

N

1990 1995 2000 20050

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

0

100

200

300

400

N Е Е

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

0

1990 – 2005 2005 – 2030 (forecasting)

Installed capacity N, GW Electricity generation E, TWh/year

12

0102030

4050607080

NP

S

HE

S&

WP

P

TPP

Tota

l

Demounting of electric power stations capacity, GW (basic

variant)

2006-2010 2011-2015 2016-2020

2021-2025 2026-2030 2006-2030

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

NP

S

HE

S&

WP

P

TPP

Tota

l

Capacities of eletric power station putting into operation, GW (basic

variant)

2006-2010 2011-2015 2016-2020

2021-2025 2026-2030 2006-2030

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Development of generating capacities and electricity production at electric power stations of different types in 2005 – 2030 (basic variant)

2005 2010 2020 2030

Electricity generation, TWhInstalled capacity, GWт

142005

2010

2020

2030TPP

NPS

HES&WPP

952 TWh in 2005

2080 TWh in 2030

Structure of electricity generation byelectric power plants of different types, % (basic variant)

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Consumption of primary energy resources by electric power stations (basic variant)

Year 2005 2030

mln. tce % mln. tce %

Total 396.4 100 687.5 100

Incl. NPS 50.5 12.7 137 20

HES&WPP 63.8 16.1 89 12.9

gas 195.0 49.2 240 34.9

solid fuel etc. 78.7 19.9 210 30.5

mazut 8.4 2.1 11.5 1.7

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Development of UES electric grids (1)

• UES and powerful regional power systems are mainly constructed as the balanced ones.

• Current density in the newly designed transmission lines must be decreased in 1.5-2 timed for decreasing the available considerable electricity losses in the electric networks.

• The controlled devices will be used in the necessary amounts (controlled shunting reactors, thyristor static compensators, longitudinal capacity compensation, unified regulators of power flow, phase shifters, STATCOMs; asynchronous communication interface adapters – dc links, electromechanical converters; energy storages).

• The main direction of Russian UES development is a strengthening of the structure of its main electrical grid. The capacity of intersystem ties between IPS must be substantially increased.

• The superconducting devices, first of all, cables, energy storage, current-limiting devices will be used in prospect.

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Development of UES electric grids (2)

• Creation of East-West bridge in some directions (Northern, Central, Southern).

• Integration of UES of Russia with the unified energy systems of other countries, formation in prospect of powerful electric energy chain: Japan – China – Siberia – Kazakhstan – European part of Russia – other CIS countries – European countries and creation of Eurasian super power unification. The capacities of intersystem ties in the forming Eurasian power unification must be sufficient for providing the security of combined operation of power systems forming it, provide the economically sound exchanges and the efficiency of functioning the formed common electricity market at Eurasian continent.

• Energy support of global infrastructural projects of gas supply, oil supply, railway and automobile networks.

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General volumes

1 Construction of OTL with voltage 110 kV and higher,

92 thous. km

including OTL with voltage 330 kV and higher

34 thous. km

2 Modification and technical updating of OTL with voltage 110 kV and higher

22 thous. km

3 Ggeneral volumes of constructing substations with voltage 110 kV and higher,

714 mln. kVA

Including the substations with voltage 330 kV and higher

150 mln. kVA

4 Modification and technical updating of substations with voltage 110 kV and higher

202 mln. kVA

Evaluation of the volumes of constructing the transmission lines on 110 kV and higher for the period up to 2030 in variant with 2000 TWh ,

thous. km

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Layout of main inside and outside intersystem connection of UES of Russia

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Estimates of necessary demands of investments in development of electric power industry (billon $), for variant with 2000 TWh

Capacities putting into operation and capital investments

 Objects of lectric power engineering 

Capacities being put into operation in

2006-2030, GW

Capital investments,Billion $.

NPS 48.7 98HES and WPP 45.0 90

TPP 173.6 198Total at electric power

stations267.3 386

Electrical networks   204Total   590

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Main expected results of realizing strategy with 2000 TWh

1. Technical updating and renovation of electric power industry on the basis of new technologies.

2. Increasing of power supply reliability3. Provision of general balancing of UES.4. Creation of mechanisms for sustainable development of electric

power industry.5. Integration of electric power industry of Russia in Eurasian super

power unification. 6. Energy support of global infrastructural projects of gas- and oil-

supply systems, railway and automobile networks.7. Reliable power supply of large cities, huge towns and industrial

centers.

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Thank you very muchfor your [email protected]

7-495-955-3100

ENIN