Strategic Analysis of Continuity for Complex Energy and Environment Systems for Developing Regions

Strategic Analysis of Continuity for Complex Energy and Environment Systems for Developing Regions

Strategic Analysis of Continuity for Complex Energy and Environment Systems for Developing Regions

Andreas HammMechanical Engineering

Andreas HammMechanical Engineering

TodayToday

Anthropogenic ContinuityMethod for Continuity AssessmentCase study: RotumaCase study results

Anthropogenic ContinuityMethod for Continuity AssessmentCase study: RotumaCase study results

Anthropogenic Continuity I: What is the system?

Anthropogenic Continuity I: What is the system?

BusinessBusiness

Technology

Technology

Status symbolsStatus

symbols

SocietySociety

AC II: What it meansAC II: What it means

Not to collapseNot to collapse

No impactNo impact

Environmentally friendly

Environmentally friendly

203020202010

2000199019801970

AC III: How it’s doneAC III: How it’s done

Diamond: Only common factor is response to environmental problems

Diamond: Only common factor is response to environmental problems

Risk analysisRisk analysis

DiscussionDiscussion

ObserversObservers

AC IV: What can be done?AC IV: What can be done?

Options are determined by built environmentOptions are determined by built environment

Anthropogenic ContinuityAnthropogenic Continuity

Risk assessmentRisk assessment

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 20301930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

60

50

40

30

20

10

Bill

ions

of

Bar

rels

per

yea

r

Projected Discoveries

Discovery

Production

Global Oil Production will Peak and Decline

Method

Reference service levels & reference technology solutions

Modeling

Risk Assessment

Design

Survey

600

km

RotumaRotuma 15x4 km Isolated, Fertile 2500 People, subsistence

economy 3% Copra, Rest remittances

Field SurveyField Survey

Current Energy UsageEnergy Needs (activity

profile)RE Resources

Environmental Problems

Rotuma Energy SystemRotuma Energy System

Village: 30 households

Loads: Lights, TV, Fridges

Diesel Gensets: 6kVA, 240V minigrids

RE Resources RE Resources

Possibility space matrixPossibility space matrix

Back to Traditional Life

No Considerable Change

Moderate Development

Full Development

Dev.LevelEnergy

Source

Fossil Fuel

Copra Biodiesel

Solar PV

N/A

N/A

Village Diesel Generators

Village Diesel Generators

Village PV Plant, Battery Storage

Central Diesel Generators

Central PV Plant, Battery

Storage

Central Diesel Generators

Hybrid Solar PV & Fossil

Wind

Hybrid Wind & Fossil

Village Diesel -PV-Battery Plant

Village Wind Turbines &

Battery Storage

Village Wind Plants & Diesel

Generators

Central PV-Diesel-Battery

Plant

Central Wind Plant & Pumped

Storage

Central Wind Plant & Diesel

Generators

Central Diesel-PV-Battery Plant

Central Wind Plant and

Pumped Storage

Central Wind Plant & Diesel

Generators

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

Central Diesel Generators

Central Diesel Generators

Central PV Plant, Battery

Storage

Technology options

Service level options

Opportunity spaceOpportunity space

Back to Traditional Life

No Considerable Change

Moderate Development

Full Development

Dev.LevelEnergy

Source

Fossil Fuel

Copra Biodiesel

Solar PV

N/A

N/A

Village Diesel Generators

Village Diesel Generators

Village PV Plant, Battery Storage

Central Diesel Generators

Central PV Plant, Battery

Storage

Central Diesel Generators

Hybrid Solar PV & Fossil

Wind

Hybrid Wind & Fossil

Village Diesel -PV-Battery Plant

Village Wind Turbines &

Battery Storage

Village Wind Plants & Diesel

Generators

Central PV-Diesel-Battery

Plant

Central Wind Plant & Pumped

Storage

Central Wind Plant & Diesel

Generators

Central Diesel-PV-Battery Plant

Central Wind Plant and

Pumped Storage

Central Wind Plant & Diesel

Generators

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

Central Diesel Generators

Central Diesel Generators

Central PV Plant, Battery

Storage

Technology options

Service level options

SummarySummary

Anthropogenic Continuity: a way of defining sustainability

Method for practical assessment of anthropogenic continuity performance

Method tried by means of case study

Anthropogenic Continuity: a way of defining sustainability

Method for practical assessment of anthropogenic continuity performance

Method tried by means of case study

Thank you!

Dr. Susan Krumdieck

Dr. Mark Jermy

Dr. Andre Dantas

The People of Rotuma

You

Contact: [email protected]