Storm Surge Model for the NY Metropolitan Area

8/11/2019 Storm Surge Model for the NY Metropolitan Area

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Malcolm Bowman and Brian Colle,

SUNY Stony Brook

1/31/20

Storm Surge Model for the New York

Metropolitan Area

&

&

Current Real-Time Surge Predictions Systems for Metro New York

Stony Brook Storm Surge Model

Stevens Institute

of Technologys

Storm Surge

model (NYHOPS)

NOAA Extratropical Storm

Surge model

http://hudson.dl.stevens-tech.edu/maritimeforecast/

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/etsurge

http://stormy.msrc.sunysb.edu/


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Model Grids

Blumberg et al. 1999

SIT Grid

SBSS

Grid

NOAA ET Grid

SUNY-SB Realtime MM5 Domains

MM5 36 km,12 km and 4 km nested model domains.


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Regional topographyand flooding zones

MinorMajor

The 50-year distribution of storm surge heights (above mean high water -MHW) > 0.5 m at the Battery, NYC since 1958. The minor and majorsurge events are identified as those surge heights 0.6-1.0 m above MHWand > 1.0 m above MHW, respectively.


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Real-Time Modeling Systems

.

Storm Surge Forecasting Systems

Institution Atmospheric Forcing Ocean Model Start Time

Stony Brook 5 MM5 / 3 WRF members ADCIRC 0000 UTC

StevensInstitute of Technology NCEP - NAM model Princeton Ocean Model 12:00 AM

NOAA NCEP - GFS model NOAA Extratropical Storm Surge model 0000 UTC

Stony Brook Storm Surge Model (SBSS) uses 5 MM5

and 3 WRF membersStony Brook Storm Surge Model Atmospheric Ensemble Members

Members Model Microphysics PBL Scheme Radiation Initial Condition Cumulus

9a MM5 Simple Ice MRF Cloud Radiation WRF-NMM Grell

BMMY MM5 Simple Ice MY CCM2 GFS Betts Miller

GRBLK MM5 Simple Ice Blackadar CCM2 NOGAPS Grell

K2MRF MM5 Reisner MRF Cloud Radiation GFS Kain Fritsch

K2MY MM5 Simple Ice MY CCM2 Canadian Model Kain Fritsch

221 WRF Ferrier YSU RRTM WRF-NMM Kain Fritsch

GFS WRF Ferrier YSU RRTM GFS model Grell

NOG WRF WSM3 YSU RRTM NOGAPS Betts Miller

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SBSS-predicted maximum surges

associated with Hurricane Irene 28

Aug 2011.

Resolution Issues

Resolution vs. speed

Stakeholder requirements What are the limits? How much is too much?


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MM5 (GRMRF)-NAM WRF(GRYSU)-GFS

0000 UTC April 16th, 2007 SLP (contour), Temp (shaded) and wind

WRF-GFS

MM5-NAM

OBS

Bias Corr-ALL

NOAA-ET

ALLBias Corr-ALL

NOAA-ET

SBSS

SIT

SIT


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Daily Averaged Significant Wave Height, m

DailyMeanError,m

Significant Wave Height at buoy 44017 vs. 24-48 h Mean Error at Montauk

( )

ALL

ENS3

ENS3-BC

ALL-BC

SBSS


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SBSSALLENS-3

> 0.3 m Surge

> 0.4 m Surge

ALL

ALL

SBSS

SBSS

ENS3

ENS3

Fig. 23


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Fig. 28: Hudson Watershed Gauged Streamflows

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

9/14/199912:00

9/15/19990:00

9/15/199912:00

9/16/19990:00

9/16/199912:00

9/17/19990:00

9/17/199912:00

9/18/19990:00

9/18/199912:00

9/19/19990:00

9/19/199912:00

Date/Time (UTC(GMT))

Based on 7-16 global climate models and 3 emissions scenarios. Data fromNational Weather service (NWS) and National Oceanic and Atmospheric

Administration (NOAA). Rapid ice-melt scenario is based on acceleration ofrecent ice melt in Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets and paleoclimatestudies. Source: Horton, R., V. Gornitz and M. Bowman (2010).


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The End

Storm Surge Model for the NY Metropolitan Area

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