Storm Surge Forecasting Trial at RSMC Nadi - wmo.int€¦ · Area of the FMS storm-surge forecasting RSMC Nadi’s area of responsibility Sub-regions for calculation

Storm Surge Forecasting Trial at RSMC Nadi

FMS acquired SS forecasting technique from JMA

⚫ Training of Trainor; Oct. 2016, Tokyo

(Vatia Tide-gauge)⚫ Group training; Aug. 2017, Nadi

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Schematic image of storm-surge forecasting

timeseries

Storm-surge model ProductsInput

tropical cyclone forecasts

storm surge map

bathymetry◼ based on two-dimensional

shallow water equations

Area of the FMS storm-surge forecasting

RSMC Nadi’s area of responsibility

Sub-regions for calculation

✓ Forecasting of storm-surge started in November

2017 on a trial basis with the support of JMA.

Tropical Cyclone WINSTON

✓ 44 Casualties

✓ 50,000 people in evacuation centers

✓ 350,000 people affected (~40% of Fiji pop.)

✓ FJ$2.0 billion Loss

•Highest winds

10-min sustained: 233 km/h (Gust: 306km/h)

1-minute sustained: 285 km/h

Simulation of storm-surges caused by TC WINSTON

⚫ Motion picture of storm-surge simulation (right)

⚫ Snapshot at 10h/20/Feb/2016 UTC (left)

Forecast of storm-surges caused by TC GITA

⚫ Forecast surge at Tongatapu for 12 Feb 2018 (right)

⚫ Actual sea-level data from the tide-gage at Nuku'alofa (left)

Forecast of storm-surges caused by TC KENI

⚫ Motion picture of storm-surge forecasts at 1800UTC 09/APR/2018 (right)

⚫ Actual data from the tide-gage at Vatia (left)

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Storm-surge at Vatia

storm surge

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Plan for the future

✓ To continue the trial forecasting for 2018-9 TC season to more closely examine its accuracy and to consolidate the FMS’s operational capacity.

✓ To start the storm-surge forecasting operationally as from 2019-20 TC season for the RSMC Nadi’s responsible area and to enhance the TC warning service for Fiji.

✓ To upgrade the forecasting in terms of time/space resolutions and by addition of time-series forecasting at selected points in the region.

Thank You