STORM FORECASTS: 2017-26 1 STORM FORECASTS: 2017-26 The only independent source of animal health and animal agriculture historical market data and forecasts June 2017
STORM FORECASTS: 2017-26
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STORM FORECASTS: 2017-26The only independent source of animal health and animal agriculture historical
market data and forecasts
June 2017
STORM FORECASTS: 2017-26
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STORM FORECASTS is the only independent source of animal health and animal agriculture
HISTORICAL data and FORECASTS covering 20 years
STORM FORECASTS includes 2.7 million data points of pivotal animal health market data and
animal agriculture metrics, including consumption, production and trade of 12 animal proteins
and population metrics for 11 animal types, including cats, dogs and horses
STORM FORECASTS covers the world market, six regions and the largest 25 countries and
emerging markets
STORM FORECASTS covers all Species sectors
• Cattle [beef & dairy], Sheep & goats, Pigs, Poultry [layer chickens, broiler chickens, turkeys, other poultry]
and Companion Animals [dogs, cats, horses]
STORM FORECASTS covers all Product Groups
• Medicinal Feed Additives, Biologicals, Anti-infectives, Parasiticides and Other Pharmaceuticals
STORM FORECASTS includes HISTORICAL animal health market data and FORECASTS
• in Local currency and US dollar terms by Product Group-Species sector e.g. France-Cattle-Biologicals
• in Nominal, FX Neutral* and Real* terms
What is STORM FORECASTS?
* Forecasts only
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STORM FORECASTS delivers objective and independent data that can support better strategic
decisions and operational planning
STORM FORECASTS allows clients to focus resources on strategic analysis and decision making
and not data collection and can challenge “groupthink”
STORM FORECASTS contains proprietary animal health and animal agriculture FORECASTS
STORM FORECASTS contains HISTORICAL (10 years) animal agriculture and macro-economic
data in an “off-the-shelf”, easy to use product delivering significant increases in operational
efficiency and effectiveness during strategic and operational planning processes
STORM FORECASTS contains HISTORICAL animal health market data (10 years) and proprietary
animal health market FORECASTS (10 years) in Nominal, FX Neutral and Real terms
Why use STORM FORECASTS?
STORM FORECASTS: 2017-26
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STORM FORECASTS Methodology: Proprietary Market Modelsinter-connected, bottom-up “Demand/Supply” models drive the “Live Animal” models and
“Animal Health Market” model
Demand/ Supply Models
Consumption
Exports
Production
Imports
232 Countries
11 Animal Types
232 Countries
25 Segments
Cattle
Beef
Dairy
Sheep & goats
Meat
Fibre
Poultry
Pigs
Turkeys
Layers
Other poultryBroilers
Live Animal Models
Cat
Dog
Horse
$/MTU
MTU
Animal Health Market Model
• Human population
• Real GDP per capita growth
• Demand elasticities
• Consumer preferences
• Trade dynamics
• Production constraints
• Births
• Deaths
• Yield
• Litter size
• Live animal trade
• Carcass weights
• Breeding females / males
• Replacement rates
• Age to productivity / productive life
• Spend per Medicalised Treatable Unit
• Underlying historical trend
• Forecast trend evolution
• Price inflation / adjustments
• New technologies / generics
• News & events
• Regulation & policy
• Macro-economics
• Medicalised Treatable Units
• Medicalisation rates
STORM FORECASTS: 2017-26
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Historical Forecasts
3rd Party Vetnosis 3rd Party Vetnosis
Macro-economics/FX Rates (IMF, EIU)
Animal Agriculture (USDA, Eurostat, FAO)
(where unavailable)
Animal Health (Trade Associations)
(where unavailable)
= Vetnosis proprietary data
Data SourcesVetnosis uses best-in-class 3rd party historical data for macro-economics/FX rates, animal
agriculture and animal health. Vetnosis creates proprietary forecasts for animal agriculture
metrics and animal health market data
STORM FORECASTS: 2017-26
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Animal Proteins and Animal Types Animal Health Market Segmentation e.g. Cattle-Biologicals
Animal Proteins (12) Animal Types (11) Species (5) Product Groups (5)
Bovine meat Cattle & buffalo Cattle Medicinal Feed Additives
Sheep & goat meat Sheep & goats Sheep & Goats Biologicals
Pig meat Pigs Pigs Anti-infectives
Eggs Layer chickens Poultry Parasiticides
Broiler meat Broiler chickens Companion Animal/Other Other Pharmaceuticals
Turkey meat Turkeys
Other poultry meat Other poultry e.g. ducks
Fluid milk Dairy cattle & buffalo
Butter n/a
Cheese n/a
Other dairy n/a
Other meat n/a e.g. camels, game
n/a Cats
n/a Dogs
n/a Horses
Scope of Animal Proteins and Animal Types and Animal Health
Market Segmentation
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Global Scope: Animal Agriculture Historical Data & Forecasts64 named country markets, 10 sub-regions, 6 regions and world
NORTH AMERICA:
Canada
USA
LATIN AMERICA:Argentina
BrazilChile
ColombiaMexico
UruguayVenezuela
Other Latin America
WEST EUROPE:Austria, Belgium, Denmark, France, Finland, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, UK, Other West Europe
FAR EAST:Australia
ChinaIndonesia
JapanMalaysiaMyanmar
New ZealandPhilippines
South KoreaThailandVietnam
Other Far East
Russia, Ukraine, Other CIS, Central Asia
Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Other Balkans
EAST EUROPE:
Other North Africa Egypt
Ethiopia
Congo DR, Kenya, Nigeria, Tanzania, Uganda, Other Sub-Saharan Africa
Rest of Rest of World
TurkeyIsrael
India
South Africa
REST OF WORLD:
BangladeshPakistan
Iran
STORM FORECASTS: 2017-26
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Global Scope: Animal Health Historical Data & Forecasts25 largest country markets, 5 sub-regions, 6 regions and world in local currency and US dollars;
and in Nominal, FX Neutral* and Real* terms
NORTH AMERICA:
Canada
USA
LATIN AMERICA:Argentina, Brazil, Mexico
Rest of Latin America
REST OF WORLD:
Rest of Rest of World
South Africa
EAST EUROPE:
Russia
Rest of East Europe
Poland,
WEST EUROPE:Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Spain, UK
Rest of West Europe FAR EAST:Australia, China
Japan, New ZealandPhilippines, South Korea,
Thailand, Vietnam
Rest of Far East
India
Turkey
*forecasts only
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STORM FORECASTS: 2017-26
Contents
Macro-economics Consumption Production Commodity Balance Sheet Animal Balance Sheet Inventory Structure Treatable Units Animal Health Market
STORM FORECASTS: 2017-26
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Macro-economics DataRelease Date: 30th June 2017
Forecast Data
Region Country/Region Blank Metric Unit Source(s) Last Actual 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Human population Millions IMF 2022 91.047 93.141 95.283 97.475 99.717 102.010 103.708 105.385 107.044 108.689 110.322
Nominal GDP Billions USD IMF 2022 332.349 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a … … … …
Real GDP Grow th (Local Currency) % IMF 2022 4.3 3.5 4.5 5.3 5.8 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0
Real GDP per head Grow th (Local Currency) % IMF 2022 2.9 1.2 2.1 2.9 3.4 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6
GDP (based on PPP) per head '000 USD per head IMF 2022 12.554 12.983 13.555 14.259 15.044 15.903 16.813 … … … …
Inflation % IMF 2022 10.2 22.0 16.9 10.9 8.1 7.2 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0
USD exchange rate Local currency per USD Pac. Exch/EIU 2026 10.051 18.050 16.560 15.890 15.290 14.780 16.010 17.260 18.600 20.020 21.490
Unemployment % IMF 2022 12.7 12.6 11.8 10.6 9.1 7.4 5.7 … … … …
Human population
Nominal GDP (US$ bn)
Real GDP Growth (Local Currency)
Real GDP per head Growth (Local Currency)
GDP (based on PPP) per head
Inflation
USD exchange rate
Unemployment
Macro-economicsKey macro-economics data and charts (2006-26) for 81 countries/regions
33,048 data points
Macro-economics ChartsRelease Date: 30th June 2017
Metric Human population
Country/Region World
WARNING - ENSURE 'ALL' OR MULTIPLE SELECTIONS NOT USED
Unit
Data Millions
2006 6,536.02
2007 6,618.93
2008 6,699.61
2009 6,778.83
2010 6,859.28
2011 6,946.05
2012 7,039.25
2013 7,121.60
2014 7,203.15
2015 7,286.80
2016 7,370.15
2017 7,453.86
2018 7,538.29
2019 7,623.01
2020 7,707.98
2021 7,792.91
2022 7,869.87
2023 7,945.72
2024 8,020.53
2025 8,094.35
2026 8,167.18
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
STORM FORECASTS: 2017-26
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Consumption DataRelease Date: 30th June 2017
Forecast Data
Region Country/Region Commodity Metric Unit Source(s) Last Actual 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Pig meat Total consumption '000s MT Eurostat 2016 400 403 406 408 409 410 410 410 410 410 409
Pig meat Human consumption '000s MT Eurostat 2016 400 403 406 408 409 410 410 410 410 410 409
Pig meat Human consumption per head kg / head Eurostat 2016 40.684 41.078 41.440 41.740 41.987 42.181 42.334 42.488 42.642 42.797 42.952
Pig meat Self-sufficiency % … … 107.9 104.6 103.6 103.5 103.6 103.7 103.8 104.1 104.4 104.6 104.9
Total consumption
• Human consumption + Other uses
Human consumption
• Human consumption per head
• Human population
Human consumption per head
• Real GDP per head
• Demand elasticities
• Consumer preference trends
Self-sufficiency
ConsumptionConsumption metrics (2006-26) for 12 animal proteins in 81 countries/regions modelled for
fundamental demand drivers
231,336 data points
Consumption ChartsRelease Date: 30th June 2017
Metric Human consumption per head
Country/Region Central Asia
Commodity Total meat
WARNING - ENSURE 'ALL' OR MULTIPLE SELECTIONS NOT USED
Unit
Data kg / head
2006 36.94
2007 36.25
2008 39.10
2009 39.84
2010 41.30
2011 43.50
2012 42.99
2013 43.45
2014 44.03
2015 44.63
2016 45.15
2017 45.69
2018 46.39
2019 47.07
2020 47.80
2021 48.60
2022 49.49
2023 50.41
2024 51.35
2025 52.32
2026 53.32
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
STORM FORECASTS: 2017-26
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Production DataRelease Date: 30th June 2017
Forecast Data
Region Country/Region Commodity Metric Unit Source(s) Last Actual 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Broiler meat Production '000s MT Eurostat 2016 1,850 1,908 1,956 1,996 2,034 2,080 2,124 2,168 2,210 2,250 2,289
Broiler meat Total slaughtered '000s head Eurostat 2016 1,056,883 1,084,893 1,106,390 1,123,199 1,139,347 1,159,269 1,177,543 1,196,228 1,213,429 1,228,882 1,243,903
Broiler meat Carcass w eight kg / head Eurostat 2016 1.750 1.759 1.768 1.777 1.786 1.794 1.803 1.812 1.822 1.831 1.840
Broiler meat Production % for export % Eurostat 2016 53.5 54.0 54.2 54.3 54.4 54.6 54.8 55.1 55.3 55.5 55.6
ProductionProduction metrics (2006-26) for 12 animal proteins in 81 countries/regions modelled for
fundamental supply drivers and trade
Production
Total slaughtered
Carcass weight
Production % for export
206,550 data points
Production ChartsRelease Date: 30th June 2017
Metric Total slaughtered
Country/Region Kenya
Commodity Bovine meat
WARNING - ENSURE 'ALL' OR MULTIPLE SELECTIONS NOT USED
Unit
Data '000s head
2006 1,911.00
2007 1,719.90
2008 1,891.90
2009 2,057.00
2010 1,923.50
2011 2,104.00
2012 2,194.20
2013 2,147.30
2014 2,076.70
2015 2,092.36
2016 2,115.28
2017 2,135.01
2018 2,155.03
2019 2,183.01
2020 2,218.23
2021 2,250.56
2022 2,276.26
2023 2,301.87
2024 2,327.55
2025 2,353.38
2026 2,379.34
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
STORM FORECASTS: 2017-26
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Commodity Balance Sheet DataRelease Date: 30th June 2017
Forecast Data
Region Country/Region Commodity Metric Unit Source(s) Last Actual 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Cheese Production '000s MT Eurostat 2016 102 103 105 106 107 109 110 111 112 113 114
Cheese Total consumption '000s MT Eurostat 2016 104 105 107 108 109 111 112 113 114 115 116
Cheese Human consumption '000s MT Eurostat 2016 104 105 107 108 109 111 112 113 114 115 116
Cheese Other uses and processing '000s MT Eurostat 2016 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Cheese Initial stocks '000s MT Eurostat 2016 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9
Cheese End stocks '000s MT Eurostat 2016 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9
Cheese Exports '000s MT Eurostat 2016 20 20 21 21 21 21 22 22 22 22 23
Cheese Imports '000s MT Eurostat 2016 22 22 23 23 23 23 24 24 24 24 25
Cheese Total demand '000s MT Eurostat 2016 124 126 127 129 130 132 133 135 136 137 139
Cheese Total supply '000s MT Eurostat 2016 124 126 127 129 130 132 133 135 136 137 139
Cheese Change in Stocks '000s MT Eurostat 2016 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Cheese Balance '000s MT Eurostat 2016 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Production
Total consumption
• Human consumption
• Other uses and processing
Initial stocks
End stocks
Exports
Imports
Commodity Balance SheetConsumption, Production, Imports and Exports balance sheets for 12 animal proteins in 81
countries/regions
694,008 data points
STORM FORECASTS: 2017-26
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Animal Balance Sheet DataRelease Date: 30th June 2017
Forecast Data
Region Country/Region Animal Metric Unit Source(s) Last Actual 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Cattle Inventory '000s head Eurostat 2016 838 839 839 837 835 832 829 826 823 820 817
Cattle Deaths '000s head Eurostat 2016 143 142 142 141 141 140 139 138 137 136 135
Cattle Total slaughtered '000s head Eurostat 2016 108 108 108 108 107 107 106 106 105 104 104
Cattle Non-breeding animals slaughtered '000s head Eurostat 2016 26 26 26 27 27 27 27 28 28 28 28
Cattle Total mortality '000s head Eurostat 2016 34 34 34 34 33 33 33 32 32 32 31
Cattle Births '000s head Eurostat 2016 303 301 299 297 294 291 288 285 282 280 277
Cattle Exports - live animals '000s head Eurostat 2016 220 224 227 230 232 234 236 238 240 242 243
Cattle Imports - live animals '000s head Eurostat 2016 60 61 62 63 63 64 64 65 65 66 66
Inventory
Deaths
• Total slaughtered
• Total mortality
Births
Exports – live animals
Imports – live animals
Animal Balance SheetAnimal balance sheets for 9 animal types in 81 countries/regions
495,720 data points
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Inventory StructureRelease Date: 30th June 2017
Forecast Data
Region Country/Region Animal Metric Unit Source(s) Last Actual 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Pigs Inventory '000s head Eurostat 2016 2,793 2,655 2,608 2,585 2,564 2,540 2,511 2,483 2,456 2,427 2,398
Pigs Total breeding animals '000s head … … 329 306 294 285 277 268 260 251 243 235 227
Pigs Adult breeding females '000s head Eurostat 2016 236 220 212 205 199 193 187 181 175 170 164
Pigs Juvenile breeding females '000s head Vetnosis … 87 81 78 75 73 71 69 67 64 62 60
Pigs Adult breeding males '000s head Vetnosis … 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2
Pigs Juvenile breeding males '000s head Vetnosis … 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Pigs Other inventory '000s head Vetnosis … 2,464 2,349 2,313 2,299 2,287 2,272 2,251 2,232 2,213 2,192 2,171
Inventory
Total breeding animals
• Adult breeding females
• Juvenile breeding females
• Adult breeding males
• Juvenile breeding males
Other inventory
Inventory StructureHerd/flock structure segmented into Breeding animals and Other inventory for 8 production
animal types and also dog, cat and horse populations in 81 countries/regions
289,170 data points
Inventory Structure ChartsRelease Date: 30th June 2017
Metric Juvenile breeding females
Country/Region Austria
Animal Pigs
WARNING - ENSURE 'ALL' OR MULTIPLE SELECTIONS NOT USED
Unit
Data '000s head
2006 115.12
2007 114.23
2008 106.85
2009 105.65
2010 102.43
2011 99.19
2012 94.73
2013 91.77
2014 88.99
2015 89.98
2016 86.82
2017 80.82
2018 77.72
2019 75.42
2020 73.25
2021 71.04
2022 68.73
2023 66.54
2024 64.41
2025 62.30
2026 60.26
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
STORM FORECASTS: 2017-26
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Treatable Units DataRelease Date: 30th June 2017
Forecast Data
Region Country/Region Animal Metric Unit Source(s) Last Actual 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Cattle Total breeding animals [avg.] '000s head Vetnosis … 19,273 19,273 19,384 19,603 19,847 20,096 20,306 20,472 20,633 20,791 20,944
Cattle Breeding females [avg.] '000s head Vetnosis … 18,950 18,950 19,059 19,274 19,515 19,759 19,965 20,129 20,288 20,442 20,593
Cattle Breeding males [avg.] '000s head Vetnosis … 323 323 325 329 333 337 340 343 346 348 351
Cattle Total slaughtered '000s head Vetnosis … 4,100 4,100 4,149 4,208 4,269 4,330 4,374 4,416 4,458 4,500 4,540
Cattle Non-breeding animals [avg.] '000s head Vetnosis … -1,273 -1,273 -1,297 -1,319 -1,343 -1,367 -1,389 -1,408 -1,427 -1,446 -1,464
Cattle Treatable units '000s head Vetnosis … 18,000 18,000 18,087 18,284 18,504 18,729 18,917 19,064 19,206 19,345 19,480
Cattle Medicalisation rate % Vetnosis … 98.1 99.2 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Cattle Medicalised treatable units '000s head Vetnosis … 17,662 17,857 18,087 18,284 18,504 18,729 18,917 19,064 19,206 19,345 19,480
Total breeding animals
• Breeding females
• Breeding males
Total slaughtered
Non-breeding animals
Treatable units
Medicalisation rate
Medicalised treatable units
Treatable Units
367,659 data points
Treatable Units ChartsRelease Date: 30th June 2017
Metric Breeding females [avg.]
Country/Region Lithuania
Animal Pigs
WARNING - ENSURE 'ALL' OR MULTIPLE SELECTIONS NOT USED
Unit
Data '000s head
2006 134.01
2007 122.27
2008 109.02
2009 110.25
2010 112.98
2011 102.67
2012 89.98
2013 83.63
2014 78.78
2015 74.75
2016 69.56
2017 63.25
2018 58.62
2019 56.42
2020 54.60
2021 52.86
2022 51.22
2023 49.72
2024 48.30
2025 46.90
2026 45.55
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
STORM FORECASTS: 2017-26
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Animal Health Market -
Nominal TermsRelease Date: 30th June 2017
Forecast Data
Region Country/Region Species Product Group Metric Unit 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Cattle Medicinal Feed Additives Sales per MTU Local Currency - NOMINAL EUR 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.07 0.07 0.07
Cattle Biologicals Sales per MTU Local Currency - NOMINAL EUR 3.35 3.43 3.52 3.62 3.72 3.83 3.95 4.08 4.22 4.36 4.51
Cattle Anti-infectives Sales per MTU Local Currency - NOMINAL EUR 2.27 2.28 2.31 2.34 2.38 2.41 2.46 2.50 2.54 2.59 2.64
Cattle Parasiticides Sales per MTU Local Currency - NOMINAL EUR 1.38 1.41 1.43 1.45 1.49 1.52 1.55 1.59 1.62 1.66 1.69
Cattle Other Pharmaceuticals Sales per MTU Local Currency - NOMINAL EUR 3.00 3.06 3.14 3.22 3.30 3.39 3.48 3.56 3.65 3.74 3.84
Cattle ALL PRODUCT GROUPS Sales per MTU Local Currency - NOMINAL EUR 10.07 10.24 10.46 10.70 10.95 11.21 11.50 11.80 12.10 12.42 12.74
Animal Health market (ex-manufacturer net sales) for the Top 25 country markets, 5 sub-regions, 6
regions and world from 2006-26 by 25 Species-Product Group market segments e.g. Cattle-
Biologicals
10-year HISTORICAL market data in Nominal Local currency and US Dollars
10-year FORECASTS in Nominal, FX Neutral and Real terms in Local Currency and US Dollars
Animal Health Market: Nominal, FX Neutral and Real terms
344,160 data points
STORM FORECASTS: 2017-26
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Deliverableaccess through an easy to use Excel format containing 2.7 million data points
Control PanelRelease Date: 30th June 2017
Macro-economics
Animal Agriculture Consumption
Production
Commodity Balance Sheet
Animal Balance Sheet
Inventory Structure
Treatable Units
Nominal
Fx Neutral
Real
Animal Health
Macro-economicsCHARTDATA
DATA CHART
DATA CHART
DATA CHART
TABLEDATA
TABLEDATA
CHARTDATA
CHARTDATA
CHARTDATA
Country Key
DATA CHART
Glossary
Delivering commercial insight to the global animal health industrywww.vetnosis.com
Vetnosis Limited
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United Kingdom
Registered Office: Abbey House, 83 Princes Street, Edinburgh, EH2 2ER, United Kingdom Registered Number: SC335371 (Scotland)
Contact Details
O: +44 (0)131 718 0770
F: +44 (0)131 718 0771
For further information contact:
Tim EvansManaging Director+44 (0)131 718 [email protected]