Photo: Greenpeace
FEATURING
Andrew SteerPresident & CEOJanuary 13, 2016
WORST REFUGEE CRISIS SINCE WWII
60 millionpeople displaced globally
Photo: CAPHOD Photo Library/Flickr
TERRORISM SPIKES AROUND THE WORLD
Photo: The Apex Archive
SLOW ECONOMIC GROWTH: A NEW NORMAL?
Photo: Wendell/Flickr
BUT, SIGNS OF HOPE
Photo: United Nations
FROM COMMITMENTS…
Photo: COP Paris/Flickr
…TO ACTION
Photo: Flickr/.freeside.
THE PARIS AGREEMENT: Will Momentum Continue?
STORY 1
Photo: Greenpeace
A TURNING POINT ON CLIMATE
Photo: COP Paris
WHAT’S IN THE AGREEMENT?
MORE AMBITION NEEDED
Source: WRI analysis by Kelly Levin and Taryn Fransen http://www.wri.org/blog/2015/11/insider-why-are-indc-studies-reaching-different-temperature-estimates
MORE AMBITION NEEDED
Source: WRI analysis by Kelly Levin and Taryn Fransen http://www.wri.org/blog/2015/11/insider-why-are-indc-studies-reaching-different-temperature-estimates
MORE AMBITION NEEDED
Source: WRI analysis by Kelly Levin and Taryn Fransen http://www.wri.org/blog/2015/11/insider-why-are-indc-studies-reaching-different-temperature-estimates
WHAT TO WATCH:
Will Countries Seize Momentum?
Photo: Elentari86/Flickr
WHAT TO WATCH:
How Many Countries Sign On?
Photo: Susan Melkisethian/Flickr
April 22: Earth Day
WHAT TO WATCH:
Progress on National Commitments?
Source: CAIT Paris Contributions Map/WRI
135 Countries Set GHG Targets
WHAT TO WATCH:
India as a Bellwether?
Photo: Narendra Modi/Flickr
Goal:
3GW to 100GW Solar Power by 2022
Will Momentum Continue? STORY 1
Photo: Greenpeace
NEW CLIMATE ECONOMY:Will the Message Take Root?
STORY 2
Photo: Greenpeace
THE INTELLECTUAL JOURNEY
Photo: C40 Cities/Flickr
THE INTELLECTUAL JOURNEY
• Economic growth and climate action are tradeoffs
Photo: C40 Cities/Flickr
THE INTELLECTUAL JOURNEY
• Economic growth and climate action are tradeoffs
• Economic growth can be consistent with climate action
Photo: C40 Cities/Flickr
THE INTELLECTUAL JOURNEY
• Economic growth and climate action are tradeoffs
• Economic growth can be consistent with climate action
• Economic growth is only possible with climate action
Photo: C40 Cities/Flickr
BUSINESSES: GROWING COMMITMENTS
• 1,000+ companies commit to carbon pricing
• 150+ U.S. companies pledge support for climate action
• 116 companies commit to Science-Based Targets
Source: http://sciencebasedtargets.org/; Carbon Pricing; The White House Photo: iStock
WHAT TO WATCH:
Will Businesses Follow Through?
Photo: COP Paris/Flickr
WHAT TO WATCH:
More Science-Based Targets?
Images: Wikimedia Commons
WHAT TO WATCH:
Alignment on Lobbying
Image: Flickr/Daniel Guy
ACTION IN CITIES, TOO
425+ Cities join the Compact of Mayors
Source: Compact of Mayors
WHAT TO WATCH:
Will Cities Deliver?
Photo:WRI
WHAT TO WATCH:
Will New Urban Narrative Take Hold?
Photo: Scipio/Flickr
October: Habitat III ConferenceQuito, Ecuador
Will the Message Take Root? STORY 2
Image: Greenpeace
GREEN FINANCE:Will the Financial System Evolve?
STORY 3
Photo:Travel Aficionado/Flickr
RAISING BILLIONS, SHIFTING TRILLIONS
Photo: Scott Beale/Flickr
GREENING FINANCIAL SYSTEMS: WHAT WILL IT TAKE?
GREENING FINANCIAL SYSTEMS: WHAT WILL IT TAKE?
GREENING FINANCIAL SYSTEMS: WHAT WILL IT TAKE?
GREENING FINANCIAL SYSTEMS: WHAT WILL IT TAKE?
GREENING FINANCIAL SYSTEMS: WHAT WILL IT TAKE?
WHY NOT ENOUGH FUNDING FOR GREEN PROJECTS?
WHY NOT ENOUGH FUNDING FOR GREEN PROJECTS?
SIGNS OF CHANGE: INCREASING AWARENESS
Source: Bank of England; Photo: World Economic Forum/Flickr
“Shifts in our climate bring potentially profound implications for insurers, financial stability and the economy.”
– Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England
SIGNS OF CHANGE: ACTION IN MAJOR COUNTRIES
Photo: bfishadow/Flickr
WHAT TO WATCH:
Will China’s G20 Deliver?
Photo: European Council President/Flickr
WHAT TO WATCH:
Will G20 Embrace Systemic Reform?
Photo: Alex Proimos/Flickr
• Disclosure guidelines• Environmental stress tests• Lenders liability • Green bond regulations• Etc.
WHAT TO WATCH:
What Will the New Taskforce Say?
Image: Angela Radulescu/Flickr
Recommendations in December
WHAT TO WATCH:
Green Climate Fund: Will Money Flow?
Photo: The Green Climate Fund
Goal: $2.5 billion in 2016
WHAT TO WATCH:
Which Way on Multilateral Investment?
Photo: Yardley/Flickr
Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB)New Development BankSilk Road Fund
WHAT TO WATCH:
Will Institutional Investors Adjust?
Image: World Bank Photo Collection/Flickr
• $600 billion committed to decarbonization
• $1 trillion target in 2016?
Will the Financial System Evolve?STORY 3
Image:Travel Aficionado/Flickr
FOOD LOSS & WASTE:A Growing Movement?
STORY 4
Image: superk8nyc/Flickr
A GLOBAL CHALLENGE
• 2.3 billion more people by 2050
• 70% greater food demand in 2050
Source: UN 2015; World Resources Report 2015; FAO 2015. Photo: Ed Yourdon/Flickr
WHAT A WASTE…
32% of all food is wasted from farm to fork
Photo: Shutterstock
FINANCIAL DRAIN
Loss of $940 billion per year
Source: FAO 2015; Photo: Alexander Edward/Flickr
HURTS FOOD SECURITY
1 in 9 people don’t get enough food today
Source: World Bank; Photo: GAC | AMC/Flickr
INCREASES PRESSURE ON RESOURCES
Food loss & waste uses cropland greater than the size of China
Source: Kummu, M. et al, 2012; FAO, 2013; Photo: John Roberts/Flickr
MAJOR DRIVER OF EMISSIONS
Source: CAIT, 2015, FAO 2015 Food wastage footprint & climate change. Rome: FAO
A NEW GLOBAL GOAL
Halve Global Food Waste by 2030
Source: United Nations; Image: United Nations
WHAT TO WATCH:
A Common Global Standard?
Photo: Flickr/Lyza
WHAT TO WATCH:
Will Businesses Make Progress?
Images: Wikimedia Commons
Consumer Goods Forum: 400 membersGoal to cut food waste in half by 2025
WHAT TO WATCH:
Will Companies Lead?
Photo: raver_mikey/Flickr
• Transparency• Whole value chain
approach• Food surplus donation
WHAT TO WATCH:
Will More Countries Set Targets?
Source: USDA; Image: US Department of Agriculture/Flickr
US GOAL50% reduction in food waste by 2030
WHAT TO WATCH:
Will Political Momentum Grow?
Image: World Economic Forum/Flickr
Launch of Champions 12.3in Davos
A Growing Movement?STORY 4
Photo: superk8nyc/Flickr
CHINA: Will a New Vision Take Hold?
STORY 5
Image: Trey Ratcliff/Flickr
A GOOD RIDE
10X increase in GDP since 1990
Note: GDP (Constant 2005 US$); Source: World Bank Development Indicators; Photo: IOC Young Reporters/Flickr
A VOLATILE MOMENT
Source: Shanghai Composite Index data via Quandl
Shanghai Composite Index (June 2015 – Jan 2016)
CURRENT MODEL CANNOT CONTINUE
‘Red Alerts’ for air pollution close schools and business
Photo: V.T. Polywoda/Flickr
A TEST FOR CHINA’S LEADERS
"China's development should not just be focused on growth pace, but, more importantly, on growth quality”
– President Xi
Source: http://english.cri.cn/12394/2015/11/03/191s902485.htm ; Image: UN Photo/Loey Felipe/Flickr
13TH FIVE YEAR PLAN
March 2016: National People’s Congress to Approve Plan
Photo: Remko Tanis/Flickr
CHINA’S BROAD TARGETS ALREADY ANNOUNCED
• Peak CO2 emissions by 2030 (or earlier)• Double non-fossil fuels in the energy mix by 2030 • Reduce carbon intensity 60–65% from 2005 levels by 2030
Source: UNFCC; Photo: Peter F/Flickr
What targets for wind & solar pre-2020?
Photo: The Climate Group/Flickr
WHAT TO WATCH:
Progress on Clean Energy?
• More caps on coal? • Limits on coal finance?
Photo: Rose Robinson/Flickr
WHAT TO WATCH:
When Will Coal Peak?
Progress toward national trading?
Photo: ansoncfit/Flickr
WHAT TO WATCH:
Carbon Trading System?
• 3x building stock by 2030
• How many more low-carbon pilot cities?
Photo: depps/Flickr
WHAT TO WATCH:
A New Urbanization?
• Will China reduce excess capacity in steel & heavy industries?
• How fast will the service industry grow?
Photo: gregoire_m/Flickr
WHAT TO WATCH:
Rebalancing the Economy?
Will a New Vision Take Hold?STORY 5:
Photo: Trey Ratcliff/Flickr
US CLIMATE LEADERSHIP:
Will it Continue?
STORY 6
Photo: ABC News/Flickr
2015: TAX CREDITS FOR RENEWABLES
Photo: Mark Fischer/Flickr
2015: KEYSTONE XL PIPELINE REJECTED
Photo: Bonnie Chan/Rainforest Action Network
2015: CLEAN POWER PLAN FINALIZED
• 17% by 2020• 26-28% by 2025
(below 2005 levels)
Photo: Alex Ferguson/Flickr
US Climate Goals
HOW ARE STATES RESPONDING?
27 States Suing
Source: (E&E Publishing, LLC) http://www.eenews.net/interactive/clean_power_plan
HOW ARE STATES RESPONDING?
But 38 States Drafting Plans (so far)
Source: (E&E Publishing, LLC) http://www.eenews.net/interactive/clean_power_plan
WHAT TO WATCH:
How Will Courts Rule? (February/March)
Photo: Wikimedia Commons
WHAT TO WATCH:
What Will States’ Plans Look Like? (September)
Photo: Energy.gov/Flickr
WHAT TO WATCH:
Photo: Duke Energy/Flickr
50+ Companies Signed on to Renewable Energy Buyers Principles
How Will Utilities Respond?
WHAT TO WATCH:
Photo: The White House/Flickr
HFCs StandardsFuel Efficiency StandardsMethane in Landfills & Infrastructure
More Executive Action?
WHAT TO WATCH:
Photo: ABC News/Flickr
How Will Climate Play in the Campaigns?
WHAT TO WATCH:
Photo: AP
How Will Climate Play in the Campaigns?
IN NOVEMBER…
Photo: Getty Images
Will it Continue?STORY 6
Photo: ABC News/Flickr
Photo: Greenpeace
THE PARIS AGREEMENT: Will Momentum Continue?NEW CLIMATE ECONOMY: Will the Message Take Root?GREEN FINANCE: Will the Financial System Evolve?FOOD LOSS & WASTE: A Growing Movement?CHINA: Will a New Vision Take Hold?US CLIMATE LEADERSHIP: Will it Continue?