Stock Market Stratgy

8/4/2019 Stock Market Stratgy

1/43

1

Racing Stock Market System

Learn how to use the Betfair SP to Your Moneymaking Advantage

Http://www.RacingStockSystem.com

Racing Stock Market System
http://www.racingstocksystem.com/http://www.racingstocksystem.com/http://www.racingstocksystem.com/


2/43

2

Liability & Disclaimer

The Author, Publisher and any other persons involved in the creation, distribution or selling of thisinformation product may not be held liable for any profit, losses or damages incurred to property

through the use of this publication. All external links provided are used for information purposes onlyand can not guarantee their accuracy on statistics, results within their provided content towards thefunctionality of this trading system. This digital product my not be sold, copied or distributed in any

form or manner whatsoever. Failing to abide by this ruling may result in the use of solicitors. Anyform of plagiarism with regards to the content of this guide is illegal in all respects with regards to the

copyright acts and should be reported immediately.

This guide is copyrighted to Webtrinx Systems C.C and anyone caught obtaining, selling ordistributing this guide illegally will and can be held liable and shall be contacted by solicitors. Your

download of this guide will have been tracked by our servers and any downloads coming from anyonenot related to the buyer will be investigated.


3/43

3

Table of Contents

Foreword Page 4

What Influences Markets Page 6

The Bookmaker & The Mistake Page 7

Using this Manual Page 8

The Betfair SP Trader Page 9

How to Implement the SP Trader Page 12

Monitoring Page 14

Starting Your Trade Page 16

Trading Off (Hedging) Page 22

Stakes and your Betting Bank Page 24Value Backing and Laying Page 25

Introduction Page 26

Backing Selections Page 77

Laying Selections Page 28

Staking & Betting Bank Page 29

The Betfair Guide & The Basics Page 30+


4/43

4

Foreword

Hello and welcome to one of the most unique betting system manualsyou will ever purchase.

The Racing Stock Market system aims to treat your horses that you will

be betting on as short term investments and we will use various tools

to place as well as back, lay and trade our bets, more specifically, the

brand new Betfair Starting Price. Another concept that this manual aims

to teach is the value in betting as well as something quite strange when it

comes to people using form guides to bet with!

What the Betfair SP gives you, is an alternative to the traditional high

street bookmakers, but once again, youre placing SP bets against other

punters. The market price is generally different compared to the normal

Betfair price.

There are a few noted problems with punters these days, mainly the

usual ones you hear about such as greed and so on, but one of the biggest

problems which nobody discusses, is the main concept of betting on

value!

Let me explain it to you with an example...

If you have a horse at odds of Evens which is 3.00 and you were told that

this horse has a 40% chance to win the race, would you bet on it?

If you answered yes then there is something wrong with you, seeing thatevens means it has a 50/50 chance, so of course you would not bet on a

chance like that. This concept of value will be discussed later on.

Another concept is this. Many people will bet on a horse which has just

steamed in (where the price comes down). They will back this horse

AFTER they see the price has dropped considerably because in their

minds, this is now a bet where many people have put money on, so

obviously it has a good chance of winning.


5/43

5

This concept is perfectly normal but you would not have gained the value

from the bet.

Lets put it in perspective.

Say we have four horses over a day, that are between 4.0 and 3.5... Over

the course of the day they steam (the odds decrease), because more are

backing them to win, and when it comes to race time, the odds are

between 3.0 and 2.8.

Lets say you backed all four of these horses at 2.80. Lets also say we bet

100 on these four horses. Lets also say 2 of the 4 won, meaning wemade 180 x 2 = 360. Subtract the 200 which we lost on the one

losing horse, meaning we have a profit of 160 for the 4 bets. This is fair

enough, but did we get the proper value?

The answer is no.

Had we backed at 4.0 or 3.5.... (lets go for 3.5), and we won two of our

four bets, that makes 250 per winning horse, meaning 500 for the twowinners. Subtract the 200 lost on the others and our profit is 300 for

the two winners.

See how the value we would have taken would have been virtually double

what we would have made if we had only bet on the horse once the trend

of the odds had been done only at the end? Its quite incredible to think

how much extra money you could be making on your bets.

This manual will teach you how to change this as well as the way you

back and lay.

A philosophy Ive been recently using is always back high, because it can

only go down.... and always lay low, because it can only go up. This is

another concept which I will help you implement into the Racing Stock

Market System.


6/43

6

What Influences Markets

Many people have this fact incorrect. Most people think a bookmakerchanging their odds will influence the odds on the betting exchange. The

fact of the matter is that it is quite the opposite.

Have you ever asked yourself the question why does a bookmaker

exist? The answer is simple to make money. Now, as you probably

already know, bookmakers strategically base their betting odds so that

they will make a profit no matter what horse wins the race, based on

what money is bet on what horse.

Bookmakers will generally change their odds if there is a big difference

on the betting exchanges where people are busy betting using arbitrage.

For those of you who do not know what arbitrage, I can explain it like

this.

Basically at a standard bookmaker, say a horse is at odds of 5.0 and on

Betfair the odds are 4.5. You have an arbitrage opportunity here. Youwould BACK at 5.0 with the normal bookie and lay at 4.5 on Betfair to

guarantee yourself a profit. To sum it up, what you are basically doing it

trading, over a bookmaker and a betting exchange, but dont worry, this

manual is not about arbitrage, even though I wouldnt say you shouldnt

use it when you apply the concepts in this manual.

Back to the topic of discussion here again, I say that a Betting Exchange,

such as Betfair, has the greater control over the market as well as markettrends due to one simple reason.

If a bookmaker realises that there is an arbitrage situation, soon they will

be adjusting their odds to match that of the exchange. If they dont theyll

get a ton of punter backing on them and laying on Betfair to guarantee

themselves a profit. Therefore in order to stop this happening, the

bookies are forced to adjust otherwise they run the risk of losing out.

(Not much but still).


7/43

7

The Bookmaker & The Mistake They Make

This is another concept which you will then realise how the concept ofvalue is understood if you havent already. The way that bookmakers

make their profit is by compiling the odds over the runners (horses in a

race), to make sure they make a profit no matter who wins the race.

They are also protected by the overround. Overround can be described as

the edge that the bookmaker will create and have over you in a betting

market. If you were to place a bet on every single horse in a race, varying

your amounts you bet in order to break even whoever wins, you willunfortunately never find this occurrence. You will always come out at a

small loss due to the overround. Think of each horse having a % share of

a market. The onlydifference is that the market is not worth 100%. Its

generally around 98% or 99%. That extra missing 1% or 2% is where the

bookmaker profits.

Now youre probably thinking, what is the mistake the bookmaker

makes. The answer is simple.

They are only there to make money right? They position the odds on

their horses in order to make a profit whoever wins right? Now more

often than not, the bookmaker will overvalue a specific horse. They will

do this without really realising it because what theyre more concerned

with is making the guaranteed profit no matter who wins the race, so the

smart punters will try and find out what horse has this extra value and

start backing it. Once there are more and more backers, the bookmakerthen realises that the money is coming in for this specific horse, so theyll

adjust the prices accordingly.


8/43

8

Using this Manual

This manual combines trading, backing and laying into three separateparts. By that I mean, well teach you a trading method, a backing

method, as well as a laying method. All based on the concept of value

that we have discussed. Basically the Racing Stock Market system aims

to teach you how to see your bets as short term investments, with the

opportunity to trade them out and guarantee a profit before the race

starts, or, just straight back and lay bets.

You cannot lose money in the long run if you stick to the value conceptwe discussed earlier. The basis of the guide is to teach you how to spot

these value bets early on so you can take full advantage of whats on

offer.

The thing about the big money punters and the professionals who make

their daily living from betting, Betfair or the Exchanges in general, is that

they are the ones who are taking these value bets. In the long run it gives

them more profit, as I showed you earlier on in the manual how backingfour horses at 2.8 was far less value than backing them at 3.5.

So basically what Ill do is divide the manual into three different

sections.

1. The Betfair SP Trader Section

2. The Value Backing Method

3. The Value Laying Method

P.S For those of you unfamiliar with Betfair as well as backing, laying,

trading and any of the other concepts, I advise you to go to the end of

this manual where everything is explained.


9/43

9

The Betfair SP Trader

This is a unique method which I have been using myself for quite sometime now. It brings in a good steady stream of daily income.

Firstly let me explain something so everyone understand this from the

beginning. When you back and lay at the Betfair SP, make note of the

following. Make sure you have the following ticked under Betfair options

once youre logged into your account.

This allows you to see pre-profit/loss as well as allowing you to see what

the projected SP or the Display Near/Far odds are.. Projected SP is not

the official SP, it is basically what Betfairs system calculates it should

roughly be before the off, depending on how much money has come inand so on.What you should do here is click on the Display Near/Far

odds

Also one thing you need to know:

When you BACK at SP, you are liable to lose the amount that you are

betting, but for LAYING at SP, you are also liable to lose what you bet.

That may have sounded incorrect, but its like this: Say you enter an SP


10/43

10

lay bet, lets say you put in 100. What you are actually doing it betting

what your Lay Bet LIABILITY is going to be. Then when the SP is

decided, the 100 liability is divided by the odds to give you potential lay

bet winnings if the horse loses.

Now, lets get back to the actual SP trader method.

The aim here it so focus on drifters and steamers. I say drifters because

more often and not, after drifting out, they somehow come back to win

and you can get them at really good odds. Also the steamers are more

heavily backed and obviously have something about them if theyre

getting well backed by the betting public.

Generally you will get better odds on Betfair for a horse than you will

with a standard bookmaker. Now, we all know that the big money comes

in towards the start of the off.

The trend seems to be that, if there is a fairly big drop in odds in the last

few minutes before the off, the SP price is more often than not, lower

than the actual Betfair price. So our aim for the trading method will be todo a few early checks for the race, then when the 10 minute mark prior to

the start of the race comes into play, we wait a few minutes and if the

horse is steaming, we LAY the SP price and BACK the normal Betfair

price which will give us a guaranteed profit if the horse wins. The same

applies to the horse if the odds are rising, the SP odds seem to be higher

as well.

We want to focus on horses that begin below 4.5 when they are steaming

or drifting in order to give us a better chance of the horse winning therace and giving us our risk free bet where we break even if it loses and

profit quite handsomely if the horse goes on to win the race. Theres no

real point in applying this on horses at 10-1 because they have a far less

chance of winning.

Basically we will be buying at a lower SP price and selling at a higher

Betfair price, or vice versa, depending on the horse. Ill show you an

example in a few minutes.


11/43

11

You may think this sounds fairly simple but there is far more to the SP

trader method than just what I have discussed.

One other thing you must note, is that the SP prices are only revealedOfficially at the beginning of the race on Betfair.


12/43

12

How to Implement the SP Trader System

Firstly, this is what we do. The bookmakers reveal their odds for thehorses generally between 10.30am and 11.30am (UK Time). What we

need to then do, is roughly 45 minutes to an hour after the odds are out,

is head on over to the Betfair Horse Racing Markets.

Roughly between 12.00pm and 12.30pm, go to Betfairs Race cards and

Note down all the horses between 2.50 and 4.50.

Note down the race time and horses names in the race between 2.50 and4.50 odds. Once youve compiled this list you can go on to step two

which involve having a look at the graph to begin with.

Have a look at the below Betfair Graph:

The black vertical line refers to roughly how far along the graph will be ataround the 12 to 12.30pm time mark. The graph above represents the


13/43

13

entire time that the market is open up until the off. Now, what you need

to look for is the obviousSteamers andDrifters.

Steamers

Odds are decreasing over time because more people arebacking this horse

Drifters Odds are increasing overtime because more punters are

choosing to lay (bet against) this horse.

Of your list of horses, you need to have a look at the graphs of all of

these. Just click the small graph icon next to the name.

This brings up the full graph. Now what you need to do is, on your list ofhorses, note down any clear drifters and steamers.

Below is an example of the type of graph we are looking for. Notice the

clear downward spiral and the clear upward spiral. These are the horses

you now need to make note of. Cross the rest off of the list. Remember,

you should be searching for horses between 2.5 and 4.5. Nothing more

and nothing less. Anything less and its under evens (2.0) which is poor

value. Anything over 4.5, and youre not realistically looking at a horse

which has a good chance of winning the race.


14/43

14

Monitoring

By now you have your list of horses which are either steaming or drifting.Another idea to double check this and check on their price movements is

to head on over to the oddschecker web site

(http://www.oddschecker.com)

This displays each specific track/race/horse in each race. It allows you to

see which bookmakers are offering which odds on any of the horses for

the day. Have a look at the screenshot below.

This is the oddschecker site which collects prices from the various

bookmakers around the country/world and displays the odds. Youll see

most are virtually similar. The colours highlighted in blue means their

odds have dropped since their last check and the pink means that that

the odds have risen.

What you should do, is everyone now and again, say 20 minutes to half

an hour, check on a few of the horses just to note their trends and

whether or not theyre changing at all.This is not a strict rule that you

have to keep checking the odds and what the horse is doing, its more

there just to check.
http://www.oddschecker.com/http://www.oddschecker.com/


15/43

15

If you notice that the horse starts going the other way, then we no longer

use this horse later on when we complete our actual trades. Any horse

which starts going the other way after you have noted your list down is

then automatically redundant.

We leave horses like this out of it because the fact that the odds changed

direction shows it is not a stable investment. Remember, were treating

these as investments and any instability in our Stock aka the Horse, is

immediately disregarded.

Any horse that continues to go one way shows that there is definitely

stability. You may be thinking you discussed value and were losing outon value. True, but also not true. Ill show you that when it comes to the

actual trading using the Starting Price.

With the following screenshot, youll learn the final check for the system,

which is the most crucial in order to obtain our value. Take a look at the

below screenshot. Focus on the Near/Far odds.

Firstly, Ill inform you in advance the horse (Baunagain), has beendrifting all morning/afternoon.

About 12 minutes before the off, have a look at the Near/Far odds. Make

sure the FAR odds are always higher if you are dealing with a drifter and

the Near odds less if its a Steamer. That may sound a bit confusing but

its not too important.


16/43

16

Starting your Trade

For the explanation, were going to be using a Drifter as our exampletrade. 12 minutes prior to the beginning of the race, have a look at

the graph of the horse which you are looking to trade on. In our example,

we are looking at a drifter as Ive already mentioned. Open up the graph.

Firstly, this is the market

The horse (Baunagain), was our horse from the beginning which we

began monitoring early morning. It continues to drift out


17/43

17

Youll notice how the horse drifted out constantly (based on the graph).

You can see the incline and you can see it increase even more towards

the start of the race. Note this is about 11 minutes prior to the start.

About 1 minute after the Betfair screen above it.

Now, this is where the crucial part comes in. Seeing the odds of the horse

are INCREASING, it means that the SP is going to be increasing as well.

Betfair will end up giving a higher SP as this goes on. The same goes for

the other bookmakers. They too will start increasing their prices.

So, seeing the horses odds are increasing, we would want to BACK at SP

to get a higher price and LAY the standard Betfair price.

See below, we would BACK at the SP to gain a HIGHER back price and

LAY at the Betfair standard market price to get the original low price.

Now, what Ive done here is placed the LAY bet. I placed it at 3.75 (when

it was on the lay side), and it got matched instantly.

I laid for 15 Euros. This gives me a total potential profit of 14.34 if the

horse loses and I lose 41.25 Euros if the horse wins the race.

Now what you need to do instantly here, is BACK the SP. What you mustrealise here, is that you must back the SP for your liabilityof the lay bet

in order to equal it out. In other words, once Ive placed my LAY bet on

the standard Betfair odds, I must back for the same amount that I laid at.

NOTE: We want to place our bets 5 MINUTES prior to the start of the

race. From 12-5 mins, we keep watching to make sure the odds still move

in the direction that we expect them to be going.

Take a look at the screenshot below.


18/43

18

Notice my stakes/bets on the right hand side of the screen. Just zoom in

if you cant see it properly. Youll see that:

1) I laid at 3.75 for 15 Euros

2) I backed the SP for 14.34

I didnt do a 15 euro bet due to the commission that Betfair takes. Always

make sure you back for your potential profit when dealing with a drifter.

Now, lets fast forward into the race.. Just as the race starts, the odds for

the SP are officially revealed. (This screenshot was taken at the end of

the race).

Just before the race, the horse drifted to about 4.7. When the race

started, the odds for the SP were 5.7 which are massive odds. Now, the

calculation would be as follows.


19/43

19

We placed a LAY:

15 x 3.75 = 56.25

56.25 subtract our 15 euro stake and the liability is 41.25 euros which

youve already seen.

Our SP BACK bet:

5.7 x 14.34 = 81.73

81.73 subtract our 14.34 euro stake, gives us a potential profit of:

67.39 euros.

Now, subtract our liability of 41.25 from the 67.39, which gives us a

potential profit of 26.14 if the horse wins... and we lose NOTHING if the

horse does not win.

Unfortunately, in the example, when the race started, I hedged the bet

(by laying at a bit more in play to even out the profit. This should not

have been done because the horse won so I lost out on about a 3rd of my

profit)

Once again, just zoom in if you struggle to see the above clearly. On the

right hand side, notice two bets of 3.3. This is what I placed in play to

spread out my profit. You can do that if you want to but I dontrecommend it. At the back of the manual, the Betfair guide is there for all


20/43

20

of you who are not familiar with trading/hedging/backing/laying and

any other concept related to Betfair. Just scroll down in this book and

youll find step by step explanations with examples.

And what about a steamer...

Now, the example we used above, was a drifter. When you apply this

system to a horse which is steaming (dropping in odds), what you will do

is:

1. BACK the standard Betfair price

2. LAY the SP

The reason being, the odds for the SP should be lower so we will want to

get the higher Betfair standard market price and lay the lower SP price to

also guarantee us a profit before the race starts.

In the same race, we had another horse which was actually steaming the

entire morning. Have a look here:

The odds are 3.4 here to Back. We would then back for say 15 or 20euros. We would then LAY the SP. Remember, you are laying your

Liability. In other words, if I backed for 15, I would have to make my lay

liability the same amount as my potential backing profit.

Cast your eye back to the screenshot where the odds were revealed:


21/43

21

See how that horses odds were 2.49

Basically you would have been backing at 3.4 and laying at 2.49. This

would give you a very healthy profit.

One thing I recommend, is focus on the DRIFTERS first. Theyre easier

to do the calculations for your bets. When you are used to doing those,

then go onto using steamers. The best idea is to paper trade and this will

too be discussed.


22/43

22

Trading Off By HEDGING (Greening up)

Just remember, when hedging your bet using this system, you will only

do it while the race is in play. I dont recommend doing it but below ishow greening up actually works.

When you apply it to the system, you will need to skip ahead to step 2 in

the greening up because you will be faced with breaking even or profiting

on 1 horse only. You then need to lay that horse in order to spread the

profit evenly.

Now, firstly the key rules the greening up are:

(1) Your lay bet needs to be a bit higher than your back bet.

(2) The odds you LAY at must be lower than what you backed at.

Let me show you a theoretical example:

Lets say were backing the horse Mismanch at odds of 2.76 for 100.

Our potential profit is 169.49.

Now lets say were laying this same horse at odds of 2.20. If we were to

lay at 100 at 2.20 the screen would look something like this:

Now youll see we would make a potential profit of 53.90 if the horse


23/43

23

were to win and if not, wed break even.

Now to hedge our bet, we would need to enter a larger lay bet than the

back bet. The problem is that this is purely mechanical so unless youhave a calculator to calculate your hedge bets, you will need to just get

used to the various amounts by manually entering the amount into the

block.

Now, in the above screenshot (ignore the odds due to it being

theoretical), instead of our LAY bet being 100, its 125.45 which gives

us an equalled out profit as you can see in the screenshot above.

If youd like some links to free hedging calculators just click one of the

links below:

http://www.oddschecker.com/betting-tools/hedging-calculator.html

OR

http://www.betcalc.com/backlaycalc.php
http://www.oddschecker.com/betting-tools/hedging-calculator.htmlhttp://www.oddschecker.com/betting-tools/hedging-calculator.htmlhttp://www.betcalc.com/backlaycalc.phphttp://www.betcalc.com/backlaycalc.phphttp://www.betcalc.com/backlaycalc.phphttp://www.oddschecker.com/betting-tools/hedging-calculator.html


24/43

24

Stakes & Betting Bank

Seeing you are trading, there is far less risk in your betting. But, for thefirst week at least, you should be paper trading. Keep doing this until you

can spot the trend horses quickly.

Keep practicing until you are doing the correct back and lay bets and

make sure you are backing or laying the Betfair SP at the right time.

The more paper trading you do, the better your results will be seeing

practice will make perfect. If you learn the process, try it over and over

again and then start using real money, it will make your entire betting

experience a lot easier and less nerve wracking.

What I recommend, is using 15% of your bank at a time per trade.

This sounds like a lot but in actual fact, seeing that you are trading, it is

far less risk of money than 15%.

Your winning trades will far outnumber the losing trades, meaning the

bank will constantly grow with the trading method of the system.


25/43

25

The Value Backing/Laying Method

Learn the art of backing well priced Valuable Favourites

This Method is applied as early as possible before the race.


26/43

26

Introduction

This method is going to sound a bit strange when you first read it, butafter testing it constantly with various bets, youll soon realise just how

the winners outnumber the loses all due to the Value I mentioned

earlier in the manual.

Remember earlier in the manual, I said if you backed 4 horses at 3.5

odds youd make close to, if not double the profit if you backed the same

horses at the end of a trend?

Well, well be doing that exact thing, except well just be placing straight

back and lay bets using a few simple rules coupled with the first signs of

the horse steaming or drifting out.

This system needs to be applied early in the morning in order to get the

best value. Possibly as early as possible! Your bets will all be placed early

as well.


27/43

27

Backing Selections

The backing system is quite simple. We just have to apply a few rules

combined with our gaining of value before we place our bets. This ishow we will implement this.

Firstly, there are just two rules here.

1) The race may not be a handicap or maiden

2) There may not be more than 10 runners.

3) The horse must be the first or second favourite.

At about 10.00am, head on over to Betfair. Eliminate all races whichare handicap races and maiden races. From there, eliminate all races

with more than 10 runners. Once you have this list, note everything

down. Note down the horses and times which do qualify for the backing

method.

What we now do is the following. Have a look at the Betfair graph.

Seeing there will be very little money in the market at this time, the

graph will be quite vague. Look for the steaming graph yet again. If youcan see its going to steam Back it.

Its as plain and simple as that.

The reason we back these horses early is because as the day goes on, the

odds are going to decrease further. Seeing we are backing early, we are

getting far higher odds for our bet compared to the other punters out

there, meaning the fact that we are backing at higher value means thatwe should constantly grow our profit on the winning bets seeingwere

getting more worth for the true value of the price of the horse compared

to what everyone else is getting throughout the day.

Something you may wish to consider, is when you can, trade the

selection off. Maybe you come back later in the day, sit down at the PC

and notice that one of your selections has steamed in heavily. You can

always lay this selection and trade if off. Just refer to the trading section

towards the end of the manual.


28/43

28

Laying Method

This method is virtually the same concept as the backing method, exceptthe only difference is there are different rules compared to the backing

system. That and the fact that well be searching for horses who are

drifting early on as well.

The rules are as follows:

1) Only focus on handicap races

2) The horse must be at least 8 runners3) The distance of the race must be 5f, 6f or 7f. Nothing higher.

The rules sound a bit plain and simple. Many people believe form is the

factor behind selecting lay bets, but I have learnt that this is truly not the

case. The reason being is, a horse with bad form is obviously going to

have ridiculously high odds and the bad run is going to end sometime,

meaning when it does win, it wins at a big price meaning, if you placed a

lay bet on it, you lose heavily!

Now, early morning around 10.00am, exactly the same as the backing

system, you then go to Betfair, search for the handicap races and list the

races which are handicaps, minimum 8 runners as well as the distance of

the race being 5,6 or 7.

We focus on ANY horse between 2.80 and 4.00.

Just remember, you need to check the graph of the horses. If the horse is

drifting out, lay it immediately. We will be gaining the lowest possible lay

value (meaning our liability will be fairly lower), compared to those who

lay the horse later on in the day when the odds have risen.

Once again, if you can, I advise you to trade this bet off. Trading off gives

you far better chances of making a pre-race profit. Just hedge your bet!


29/43

29

Staking Plan & Bank

Lets pretend were starting with a bank of 50 for the backing and thelaying.

Backing Bank:

When you back, back with stakes of 4 until your bank doubles. Once

your bank has doubled, then double your stake.

50 bank = 4 stakes.100 bank = 8 stakes.

200 bank = 16 stakes.

Keep targeting a double bank. Once you reach your target, you can

start doubling up. There is no need to increase stakes on losing bets. The

winners will far outnumber the losers in terms of the profit, due to the

fact that we are already selection value bets which will always be giving

us a higher profit than what we should be getting if we do have a winner.

Laying Bank:

The same goes for here. We lay 2 a time until we double our bank.

Remember laying will have a potential loss liability.

Also remember, that we are laying at low odds, which means when we do

have a horse winning (Which is always going to be a possibility), we

dont get hit that hard due to the fact of the odds being low.


30/43

30

The Betfair Basics Manual

All the Betfair Basics Summed up in a simple Guide

http://www.racingstockmarketsystem.com


31/43

31

The Betting Exchanges

The Betting Exchanges can be described as an electronic market place.To sum it up lately, the Betting exchanges allow. Betfair was the first to

be born in about June 2000 and has taken off to new levels ever since.

The betting exchanges have recently come of age. One of the most uniquecharacteristics about the betting exchanges, is that they allow anybody to

bet in play. In Play betting takes place while an event is taking placeand the odds change accordingly to the real life events of the specificsport.

The betting exchanges differ in a few ways to that of standardbookmaker. The first way being that they allow you to place lay bets,which puts you in position as the bookmaker (This will be coveredshortly). Lay betting involves betting on a selection to lose the race. Thesecond difference between the two, is that the betting exchangesthemselves, do not lose money on any bets. They take a commission onanything that is won very profitable business. In the case of Betfair, 5%commission is deducted on anything won.

Your commission does vary depending on how many Betfair points youaccumulate over time. You basically gain a commission off theircommission.

This means that the exchanges cannot lose and in turn means they arevery profitable. In light of this they will never lose out which meansthat the betting exchanges will be around for a very long time.

All of the various betting exchanges provide bets in two forms. Back

bets and Lay bets. Backing allows a punter to bet on a selection to winwhile laying allows a punter to bet on a selection to lose (to not win).


32/43

32

Below is a list of a few of the more popular betting exchanges around theworld.

http://www.betfair.com

http://www.betdaq.com

http://www.betsson.com

http://www.ibetx.com

http://www.parabet.com
http://www.betfair.com/http://www.betfair.com/http://www.betdaq.com/http://www.betdaq.com/http://www.betsson.com/http://www.betsson.com/http://www.ibetx.com/http://www.ibetx.com/http://www.parabet.com/http://www.parabet.com/http://www.parabet.com/http://www.ibetx.com/http://www.betsson.com/http://www.betdaq.com/http://www.betfair.com/


33/43

33

The Odds

The odds which are also known as prices are what one points to whenone decides to take a bet or not.

A favourite has the shortest priced odds, in other words the lowestodds of all the other competitors in a race for example. The outsider isthe selection with the highest odds. There are two widely knownrepresentation of the odds which will be discussed shortly. The Europeanmethod and the British method.

The European method displays the odds in decimal format. The Betting

exchanges all use decimals to display their odds. The British methoddisplays the odds as fractions. Something everyone should take note of,is that the odds on the betting exchanges tend to trade at higher prices.This is known as Overround, which is the extra money standard

bookmakers take.

This higher price is not always a true reflection due to the fact thatBetfair takes a 5% commission on everything that is won. Anotherpointer about the odds on the betting exchanges, is that they tend

fluctuate constantly. For example a selection priced at 4.5 can suddenlymove to 3.98 and then up to 4.10 within a matter of seconds. It alldepends on the money coming in on either back or lay side.

On the next page, I will run through the main differences between thetwo methods of displaying odds, including a few examples.


34/43

34

Decimal Odds [European Method]

Decimal odds, which are used on all the betting exchanges such as

Betfair, are displayed in decimal format. Odds such as 2.20, 1.22 and1.65 are displayed on the various exchanges. The odds on the exchangesrange from 1.01 to 1000. 1.01 being the lowest possible odds to take and1000 being the highest available price. When you have odds of 1.01 youshould heavily expect to win and virtually never lose. Odds or 1000 youhave no chance.

Fractional Odds [British Method]

The British method, which is used by most standard bookmakers such as

bet365, Coral and so on, display their odds as fractions, in the form of4/1, 7/4 and 9/4. When you get odds of 1/1, this is said to be evens

which is the equivalent of 2.0 in decimal form. Anything less that 1/1,such as 1/3. These odds are not too important seeing we wont be usingthem when applying the system because the system is Betfair, or in other

words, Betting exchange orientated.

To Convert from fractions to decimal odds you do the following:

Take the fraction such as 9/4.Take the top and divide by the bottom.9 divided by 4 = 2.25

Now take your answer and add 1.02.25 + 1.0 = 3.25


35/43

35

Betfair: The Monopoly

Betfair basically monopolizes the industry in terms of the betting

exchanges. It has the most registered users compared to the rest of theexchanges and there are tens of thousands of people who place bets inthe various available markets throughout the day. Betfair supplies theuser interface and automatically keeps track of who has placed what betand where the money is going. When somebody wins a bet, they take a5% commission on the winnings. If you win 100 of a bet, they will take5.Do this now.

Clickhttp://www.betfair.comand the screenshot similar to the one

below should come up. Click the sport tab.

At the top of the Betfair screen in the top left hand corner you will see theOpen an Account link. If you do not have an account then I suggest youopen one ASAP. While entering your details, you will also see a referand earn box.
http://www.betfair.com/http://www.betfair.com/http://www.betfair.com/http://www.betfair.com/


36/43

36

All you have to do is type in the code 6QK7GREQFwhich will give youa free 20 once you have reached 100 Betfair points. This is roughly theequivalent of staking 100.

Once you have registered on the site, have a look around and get used tothe general layout. On the left hand side of the screen, you will notice the

various sporting events, listed in alphabetical order.


37/43

37

Backing

Backing is a fairly easy concept to understand. It is the same method as

placing a bet with a standard bookmaker, such as Bet 365 and so on.Backing means that you are betting on a selection to win. The back oddscan be seen in the purple/bluish

Lets take the above screenshot as our example.You can see he back odds in the purple column. If we were to place a100 back bet on Grand Palace

The odds are 4.9. If we back with 100, we would win

100 x 4.9 = 490.

Subtract your initial stake in this case it was 100 from the 490, andour profit is then 390.

Laying

Laying works in a completely different manner to backing. It virtuallyallows you to act as the bookmaker. This is not as much of a difficultconcept than you may think, seeing many people fail to grasp lay betting.

Lay betting is betting on a specific event Not to happen. Take thescreenshot as an example below. In this screenshot, the horse GrandPalace has odds of 5.0 to LAY (In the pink block). If we were to place a

100 LAY bet on Grand Palace, we are saying that the horse will not winthis race. However, placing 100 pounds has an advantage anddisadvantage.

Advantage: You will win 100 back instantlyDisadvantage: You can lose 5 x 100 (minus stake money)

This is known as your liability. It is the amount of money you may lose ifthe selection ends up winning a race. To calculate liability, take the odds.In this case, they are 5 and multiply them by your stake, which is 100.

This gives you a total of 500. You must then subtract your 100 stake,which would give you a total liability of 400.


38/43

38

Placing a Bet

Placing a bet on Betfair is simple. Basically what you need to do is click

the horse who you want to bet on. This will bring up a dialogue box onthe right hand side of the screen, such as the one in the example below.

Youll notice the Odds box. These odds can be changed to suit yourself.

Youll also see the your stake box where you enter your betting stake.Once you have entered your betting amount, click the submit buttonwhich is below the above box on Betfair and it will place your bet.

Configuring Betfair

On any Betfair market, just next to the amount of matched money, youllsee the options. The best option is to click this and tick everything yousee.

This will give you all pre-profit/loss amounts as soon as you enter a stakein the box.


39/43

39

Trading

The backbone of trading is placing a back and lay bet on the same

selection. The only difference is that the odds for the BACK bet must behigher for the odds of the LAY back.

To give you an example using calculations:Lets say there is a horse race.The horse is priced at 2.90 to back and 2.92 to lay.

Say we place a 100 back bet at 2.90.100 x 2.90 = 290 the stake which is a profit of 190. Lets say theodds for the horse now drop down to 2.30.

We then place a 100 lay bet at odds of 2.30.

100 x 2.30 = 230 the stake which is a liability of 130 Profit Liability = Trade190 - 130 = 60

This will mean if the selection were to win the race we would make 60.If the selection were to lose the race we would break even, which is howtrading actually works.

Take the following screenshot as an example. (note Betfair commissionis deducted)

Please note that the first screen shot came just after the start of a race.The second screenshot was during the race. This will explain why theodds are so different and the difference between the back/lay amounts incolumn two are so large.

Say we placed a 10 lay bet on Gaelic Flight at odds of 2.8, as you cansee, if the horse wins the race we will be payout out 18 as our liability. Ifit does not win, we will be winning 10. The next screenshot shows howthe odds have changed over a few seconds. Say we were to now place a

back bet of 10 at odds of 4.4. This profit would be 34, if the horse wereto win


40/43

40

Now, seeing these two bets have both taken place on the same horse, theoutcome will be as follows. 1 lay bet of 10 at odds of 2.8, giving us aliability of 18 and 1 back bet of 10 at odds of 4.4, giving us a potentialprofit of 32.30. This would be a trade (had it been on the same horse).

We would then be left with Profit (32.30) Liability (18) = trade32.30 - 18 = 14.30 (as seen below)

This means if Gaelic Flight wins, you make 14.30 profit. It he loses, youbreak even. This is a free bet! In other words, an actual trade!Liquidity

Market liquidity refers to how much money is in a market and is goinginto a market at a specific time. Some markets are of high liquidity whileothers are low. It basically depends on the popularity of an event.

A British horse race has a massively high liquidity. Close to about700,000 pounds is traded on it before the off. Another event with a veryhigh liquidity is an English premier league football match.

Low liquidity events such as the greyhound races and American horseraces, only have a few thousand pounds traded on them.

The difference between the two liquidity markets is that in a highliquidity market, price changes do not happen at a rapid pace, comparedto the low liquidity markets where price changes are very common andcan jump from 3.2 to 4.5 within a matter of seconds.

A good place to spot whether or not a market is of high liquidity is theamount of matched money on the market. This figure appears just

below the refresh button on that specific Betfair market.


41/43

41

Weight of the Money

This section also teaches you a fundamental concept about how theprices on the exchanges rise and fall. This section will also help you whenit comes to trading on the horse races using the System.

Prices on Betfair are influenced by the amount of people backing andlaying a selection.

More money in thebackcolumn means the price will RISE.More money in the laycolumn means the price will FALL.

This is determined by the amounts of money coming in on either side ofthe back and lay columns, basically known as liquidity, as alreadydiscussed.

If there is more money in the back column, the price is going to rise oncethe money has been matched. If there is more money in the lay column,the price is going to fall.

Take this screenshot below as an example

Applying the concepts highlighted in bold above, you will notice thatthere is by far more money in the lay column that the back column whichmeans the price of the selection is going to fall.

A few seconds later the screenshot will look like this:

You will notice that the weight of the money concept has cause the price

to fall because punters are all scrambling over one another trying to getin their best bets forcing the price down.


42/43

42

In other words it means far more people are trying to BACK this horsethan lay it which causes no one to want to match the odds by laying. This

means punters who are backing the horse are forced to place lower oddbets in the hope they get matched.

Unmatched Money & How Exchanges Work

This is a concept that not many people understand. Exactly how the

exchanges work and the unmatched money figures.

Take the below example screenshot.

Say you wanted to place a lay bet at odds of 2.64 for 10. There is 23

waiting to be matched at odds of 2.64. This means that someone is trying

to back the horse of odds at 2.64 and is waiting for someone to come

match it by laying it. The same goes for the back odds of 2.62. There is46 waiting to be matched. If you were to place a back bet of 2.62 for

10, you are just matching somebodys lay bet of 2.62.

If you tried to place a BACK bet of 10 at odds of 2.64, your money

would appear in the LAY column of 2.64 and your 10 would be added to

that 23 which is still waiting to be matched.

If you placed a BACK bet of say 2.68, for 100, your money would beadded to the lay column side under 2.68 and the amount of money

underneath the odds would then read 1221, unless some of it gets

matched during the time of placing the bet. This is unlikely due to the

fact that it is 3rd in the queue.

You dont really have to worry about liquidity due to the fact that there is

so much money being bet on the British races. There are thousands of

pounds matched per race. Most of them exceed a million after the in-playhas followed the pre-race betting.


43/43

43

Recommendations:

Automatic Laying Software:

If youre busy during the day and you want your lay software completely automated

to Bet for you, head on down and grab yourself a copy of John Anthonys Lay Bettor

Pro

http://laybettorpro.bfsportsystems.com

Betting Profits Formula:

One of the most highly anticipated betting ebooks of the year, written by Joshua

Jacobs, contains ALL of the betting secrets that he used to turn his last 72 into a

constant 6500+ every single month. This is a one of a kind betting guide and I

strongly urge you to get this if youre a serious punter.

http://www.bettingexchangesystems.com/bettingprofits
http://laybettorpro.bfsportsystems.com/http://laybettorpro.bfsportsystems.com/http://www.bettingexchangesystems.com/bettingprofitshttp://www.bettingexchangesystems.com/bettingprofitshttp://www.bettingexchangesystems.com/bettingprofitshttp://laybettorpro.bfsportsystems.com/

Stock Market Stratgy

Documents