Stochastic Storage Valuation Considering Aging Processes (Lithium-Ion) Benjamin Böcker , Andreas Dietrich, Christoph Weber Session MB-43: Energy Storage and Renewables Stream: Stochastic Models in Renewably Generated Electricity 28 th European Conference on Operational Research, Poznan, Poland, 7/4/2016
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Stochastic Storage Valuation Considering
Aging Processes (Lithium-Ion)
Benjamin Böcker, Andreas Dietrich, Christoph Weber
Session MB-43: Energy Storage and Renewables
Stream: Stochastic Models in Renewably Generated Electricity
28th European Conference on Operational Research, Poznan, Poland, 7/4/2016
• Future energy systems:
– High share of renewables (dominated by highly fluctuating wind and pv infeed)
– Political and social objective of a withdrawal from conventional (fossile based) power plants
challenge to match electricity demand and supply
Increasing need of flexibility options
Storage as one important group of technologies
• Valuating storage highly depends on
7/4/201628th European Conference on Operational Research, Poznan, Poland
Motivation
2
Motivation 1 2 3 4 5
– Stochastic / Uncertainty
▪ prices fluctuations (e.g. energy and reserve markets)
▪ PV fluctuations (e.g. private households)
▪ Regulatory framework
– Technical characteristics
▪ Limitation in storage volume and capacity
▪ Reversible and irreversible losses / aging
• Adequate Valuation makes it necessary to considering both
– Stochastic / Uncertainty and Technical characteristics
Using Least-Square Monte Carlo Method
– Stochastics of infeed and/or prices can take into account
– Advantage of considering the non-linearity of aging (calendrical and cyclical)
7/4/201628th European Conference on Operational Research, Poznan, Poland
Motivation
3
Motivation 1 2 3 4 5
7/4/201628th European Conference on Operational Research, Poznan, Poland
7/4/201628th European Conference on Operational Research, Poznan, Poland
Calendrical Aging – Database
5
Simplified Aging Model 1 2 3 4 5
Normalized capacity vs. timeCalendar life time (one year calendar life time at 50°C corresponds to approximately 5.6 years at 25°C)
Quelle: Ecker, Nieto, Käbitz, Schmalstieg, Blanke, Warnecke, Sauer; Calendar and cycle life study of Li(NiMnCo)O2-based 18650 lithiumion batteries; Journal of Power Sources, 2013
Quelle: Saft, 2014
7/4/201628th European Conference on Operational Research, Poznan, Poland
Calendrical Aging – Overview Lithium-Ion
6
Simplified Aging Model 1 2 3 4 5
𝑐𝑖𝑛𝑣,𝑉𝑆 = 1000€
𝑘𝑊ℎ
7/4/201628th European Conference on Operational Research, Poznan, Poland
Cyclical Aging – Database
7
Simplified Aging Model 1 2 3 4 5
7/4/201628th European Conference on Operational Research, Poznan, Poland
Cyclical Aging – Overview Lithium-Ion
8
Simplified Aging Model 1 2 3 4 5
𝑐𝑖𝑛𝑣,𝑉𝑆 = 1000€
𝑘𝑊ℎ𝑐𝑖𝑛𝑣,𝑉𝑆 = 1000€
𝑘𝑊ℎ
7/4/201628th European Conference on Operational Research, Poznan, Poland
Aging of a Lithium-Ion Battery (calendrical and cyclical aging)
9
Simplified Aging Model 1 2 3 4 5
𝑐𝑖𝑛𝑣,𝑉𝑆 = 1000€
𝑘𝑊ℎ
7/4/201628th European Conference on Operational Research, Poznan, Poland