1 Lanzhou, June, 2007 Stochastic modelling and uncertainty Jesus Carrera Institute for Earth Sciences (IJA) Higher council for Scientific Research (CSIC) Barcelona, Spain [email protected]
1Lanzhou, June, 2007
Stochastic modelling and uncertainty
Jesus CarreraInstitute for Earth Sciences (IJA)
Higher council for Scientific Research (CSIC)Barcelona, Spain
2Lanzhou, June, 2007
Contents
• GW Modelling and uncertainty evaluation: – Is it needed?,– Why?,– What for?
• Basic Concepts– Modelling procedure– Sources of uncertainty– Evaluation of uncertainty
• Discussion– Examples
• Conclusion:– Conceptual model: surprise
3Lanzhou, June, 2007
Traditional use of models
1. Understanding the past
2. Evaluating the present
3. Assessing the future state of aquifers
Semi-quantitative answers are sufficient, but
Good qualitative answers require beingvery quantitative
4Lanzhou, June, 2007
Modeling = Accounting
Cell j
Recharge, ri
Cell i
Pumping, Qi
Storage var. ΔSi
Cell l
Cell n
Cell m
Lateral exchange, fij
filfim
fin
5Lanzhou, June, 2007
Modelling: future needs
• A model is the (water or solute mass) accounting system for water bodies
• A well managed company needs a reliableaccounting system. What about aquifers?
• If not, technical hidrogeology will continueto be a minor economic activity, despite ofthe importance of true hydrogeology.
But models need to be realistic, i.e., quantitatively accurate and reliable
6Lanzhou, June, 2007
Can models be accurate?
• Unknown parameters, extent and B.C.’s• Spatial Variability STOCHASTICS• Unknown actions. Pumping history is (one
of) the best guarded secrets of any country!
• But, (long?) records of heads, and concentrations, and environmental isotopes, and well logs, and geophysics, and geology, and,....
• Need to ensure consistency
7Lanzhou, June, 2007
690000 710000 730000 750000 770000
4080000
4100000
4120000
4140000
4160000
UTM
UTM
SEVILLA
GUADALQUIV
IR
0 20000 40000 60000 80000M3690000 710000 730000 750000 770000
4080000
4100000
4120000
4140000
4160000
UTM
UTM
SEVILLA
GUADALQUIV
IR
0 20000 40000 60000 80000
( ) 0h qBoundary and initial conditions
∇⋅ ∇ + =
+
T
2.- CONCEPTUALIZATION
M2690000 710000 730000 750000 770000
4080000
4100000
4120000
4140000
4160000
UTM
UTM
SEVILLA
GUADALQUIV
IR
0 20000 40000 60000 80000
M1
1.- REALITY
( ) ( )q x q==
pAh b
3.- DISCRETIZATION
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
150 175 200 225 250 275 300time (months)
head
leve
l (m
)
4.- CALIBRATION
How can this be achieved?
The trick:
We do not model reality but our view of it
… and then modify this view so as to fitactual observations
8Lanzhou, June, 2007
Site specific dataScience/knowledge
Conceptualization:
- Process Identification Equations
- Model Structure Identification GeometryCLASS
ICAL
HID
ROGE
OLO
GY
Discretization
Error Analysis
Calibration
Model selection New experiment
PredictionOPERATION !!!
Modelling Procedure
9Lanzhou, June, 2007
Uncertainty Analysis
Multiple computer “realizations”are simulated using a range of input values for uncertain parameters
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
-7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2
Ksat_1.qpc
Cou
nt
log10
(Ksat
) (cm/s) for Layer 1
Stochastic Inputs Multiple Computer Simulations(Flow & Transport Model)
Ensemble of realizations yields probability distribution for “performance metric”
Distribution of Results(Multiple Simulations)
00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.9
1
0.001 0.1 10 1000Peak Tritium Dose via the Air Pathway
(mrem/year)
Cum
ulat
ive
Prob
abilit
y
Met
ric =
10
mre
m/y
ear
10Lanzhou, June, 2007
Uncertainty evaluation procedure
Transmissivity
Other parameters (recharge, porosity, …)Deterministic, but uncertain,
ModelSimulation
Modelresults
Water deficitCapture from river
Travel time
Spatially variable
Uncertainty in output iscaused by uncertainty in input
11Lanzhou, June, 2007
Uncertainty evaluation procedureMonte Carlo Method
Transmissivity
Other parameters (recharge, porosity, …)Deterministic, but uncertain,
ModelSimulation
Modelresults
Water deficit,Capture from river,
Travel time
Uncertainty is evaluated by repeated simulations withvarying inputs according totheir uncertainty
12Lanzhou, June, 2007
Issues regarding uncertainty evaluation
• Sources of uncertainty• How to simulate inputs?• How to quantify inputs uncertainty?• How to condition on measurements?• How to account for correlation?• Which outputs should one look at?• How many simulations?• What about model and scenario uncertainty?• CPU time
13Lanzhou, June, 2007
Sources of uncertainty
• Parameter uncertainty and variability– Feasible to quantify both its value and
its effects on predictions• Conceptual model uncertainty
– Process: Feasible?– Structure: Feasible?
• Scenario uncertainty– ???
14Lanzhou, June, 2007
Probabilistic Performance Assessment Process
Formalization so as to ensure that all uncertainties are accounted for
Scenario 2Scenario 1
Select Select Reject
Scenario 3
Develop and Screen Scenarios
KsatClimate Change Defects
Estimate Parameter Ranges and Uncertainty
ClimateEvapotranspirationSource TermVadose ZoneSaturated ZoneHuman Exposure
Develop Models
PA_process.ai
Perform Calculations00E000E000E000E000E000E000E000E000E000E000E000E0000D63768118>I<FFF8FFF8FFF80038003800380038003800380038003800380038003800380038003800380038003003800380038003800380038003800380038003800380038003800380038003800380038003800380038003800380038003800380038003800380038003800380038003800380038003800380038003800380038003800380
Uncertainty AnalysisSensitivity AnalysisAlternative Designs
Risk/PerformanceCost/ScheduleRegulatory C ompliance
Interpret Results
Monitoring RequirementsEvaluate Design Options
15Lanzhou, June, 2007
Assigning probabilities to conceptual models
• Given that one wishes to predict L• That one has conjectured Nm models Mi• That one has evaluated the pdf of the
prediction for every model:
• The total pdf is given by
= ∫i i i i i if(L/M) f(L/ ,M)穎( /M)dp p p
=
= ∑Nm
i ii 1
f(L) f(L/M)稰(M) ?
16Lanzhou, June, 2007
How to evaluate P(Mi)?
1) Prescribe it: (e.g., equally probable)Even after data?
2) Estimate P(Mi/data) (Kashyap,1982; Carrera andNeuman, 1986; Medina and Carrera, 2004) fromexpected likelihood:
Strictly speaking:
Which is feasible by linearization (S=-2ln(Pi))
= = ∫i i i i i i iP P(M /data) f(data/ ,M)穎( /M)dp p p
=
= ∫∑
i i i i ii Nm
kk 1
f(data/ ,M)穎( /M)dP(M /data)
P(M /data)
p p p
17Lanzhou, June, 2007
Example: uncertainty in structure
S=1116
S=1321 = −i iP a積xp( S /2)
All models lead to goodfits, yet:
1000 orders ofmagnitude differencesin posterior probability
It is wrong!
S=4423
20Lanzhou, June, 2007
5.6
6.7
2.4
3.4
7.2
7.5
7.1
7.6
7.3
3.8
7.3
3.0
3.0
7.1
3.76.57.0
5.16.6
8.58.0
744000 746000
4149000
4151000
4153000
4155000
746250 746350 746450 746550 746650
4.23.8
6.0
6.5
3.8
3.8
3.83.84.67.0
4151500
4151600
4151700
4151800
4151900
4152000
4152100
4152200
Paleozóicopizarras
Miocenomargas azules
Cuaternario, T3limos arenosos
Cuaternario, T2arenas limosas
Cuaternario, T1arenas y gravas
sondeo mecánico
3.93.94.3
Carretera de Aznalcóllar
río Agrio
tailings
C8
2 pozo de brocal sin lodo
4.2
pozo de brocal con lodo
valor medido
A2 identificación punto
Cuaternario, T0(sin sedimentos)
A1A2
A3
A4
1CHG
J1
Characteristic pH after clean-up (5/1998 - 1/2000)
Geochemicalbarrier
21Lanzhou, June, 2007
Prior to barrier excavation
Based on:
Geophysics
41 EVS
Elect tomogr
Srf Mapping
Boreholes (27)
Trenches (10)
Hydraulic tests(3)
26Lanzhou, June, 2007
Conclusions
• Uncertainty evaluation important• Parameter uncertainty can be evaluated (just
repeat simulations and examine outputs)• But, Conceptual model = Surprise (Bredehoeft
dixit). Always largest source of uncertaintyIf I knew the painting before hand, I would not paint it
(Picasso dixit)• Bayesian methods not yet mature for evaluating
posterior model probability• Do not believe in full evaluation of uncertainty