STEPS WP1 – Task 1.1 Consortium Meeting Lisbon, April, 29th, 2004 Slide 1 C.Marques STEPS Scenarios for the Transport System and Energy Supply and their.

STEPS WP1 – Task 1.1 Consortium Meeting Lisbon, April, 29th, 2004 Slide 1PT C.Marques

STEPSScenarios for the Transport System and Energy Supply

and their Potential Effects Framework Programme 6, Call 1AThematic Priority 1.6.2, Area 3.1.2, Task 1.10Instrument: Co-ordination Action + Additional Research

Workpackage Workpackage 11State-of-the-Art /State-of-the-Art /On-going On-going ResearchResearch

Buck Consultants International (BCI), The Netherlands (lead)AUEB, GreeceITS, United KingdomJRC IPTS, Spain / EUKUL - SADL, BelgiumLT, FinlandNovem, NetherlandsSpiekermann und Wegener (S&W), Germany Stratec, BelgiumTIS.PT, PortugalTRL, United KingdomTRT, ItalyTTR, United KingdomUPM, Spain

TASK 1.1 - TASK 1.1 - STATE OF THE ART ON STATE OF THE ART ON TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS AND TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS AND

RELATED ENERGY SUPPLY ISSUESRELATED ENERGY SUPPLY ISSUES


THE FIVE OBJECTIVES OF WORKPACKAGE 1, AS SET UP AT THE FIVE OBJECTIVES OF WORKPACKAGE 1, AS SET UP AT THE INCEPTION PHASE, ARE THE FOLLOWING:THE INCEPTION PHASE, ARE THE FOLLOWING:

1. To assess recent and ongoing developments in alternatives to fossil fuels and internal combustion propulsion systems;

2. To analyse and assess the related needs in the energy supply chains – feasibility of the upstream requirements for the implementation of new technologies;

3. To analyse national policy on transport and energy – underlying scenarios in policy statements, compliance with European guidelines, long term targets and impacts on the adoption of new technologies

4. Analyse case studies and projects of implementation of new technologies in surface transport – reasons for success / failure. Briefly assess their economic impacts in a Cost-Benefit perspective;

5. Overview the ongoing efforts in these fields in other regions of the world (US, Asia)

WP1 OVERVIEWWP1 OVERVIEW


THE FIVE OBJECTIVES OF WORKPACKAGE 1, AS SET UP AT THE FIVE OBJECTIVES OF WORKPACKAGE 1, AS SET UP AT THE INCEPTION PHASE, ARE THE FOLLOWING:THE INCEPTION PHASE, ARE THE FOLLOWING:

1.1. To assess recent and ongoing developments in alternatives to To assess recent and ongoing developments in alternatives to fossil fuels and internal combustion propulsion systems;fossil fuels and internal combustion propulsion systems;

2.2. To analyse and assess the related needs in the energy supply To analyse and assess the related needs in the energy supply chains – feasibility of the upstream requirements for the chains – feasibility of the upstream requirements for the implementation of new technologies;implementation of new technologies;

3.3. To analyse national policy on transport and energy – To analyse national policy on transport and energy – underlying scenarios in policy statements, compliance with underlying scenarios in policy statements, compliance with European guidelines, long term targets and impacts on the European guidelines, long term targets and impacts on the adoption of new technologiesadoption of new technologies

4. Analyse case studies and projects of implementation of new technologies in surface transport – reasons for success / failure. Briefly assess their economic impacts in a Cost-Benefit perspective;

5. Overview the ongoing efforts in these fields in other regions of the world (US, Asia)

WP1 OVERVIEWWP1 OVERVIEW


TASK 1.1 STATE OF THE ART ON TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS AND RELATED ENERGY SUPPLY ISSUES

Sub-Task 1.1.1 - Recent developments on current fossil fuel internal combustion technology A review technological advances during the last years Overview of technologies aiming to increase fuel efficiency and environmental friendliness of the internal combustion engine Improvements in emission levels and efficiency Assess current situation and prospects for usage of alternative fuels.

•DIESEL•NATURAL GAS VEHICLES•HYBRID VEHICES•ELECTRIC VEHICLES•FUEL CELLS (HYDROGEN)

TASK 1.1 OVERVIEWTASK 1.1 OVERVIEW


Sub-Task 1.1.1 - Recent developments on current fossil fuel internal combustion technology

Wood CoalNatural

GasNuclear

OILSolar / Fusion

Mark

et

Sh

are

Evolu

tion

Source: Auto-Oil, IEA

PRIMARY ENERGY SOURCES - Market Share Evolution



Sub-Task 1.1.1 - Recent developments on current fossil fuel internal combustion technology (DIESEL)

• New development in Diesel technology (Common Rail, Direct Injection) along with better filtering of particles appeared as the most relevant improvement regarding improved energy efficiency of vehicles (l/km) with direct impacts in the environmental performance of vehicles, both in private and in public transports.

• Supply issues do not exist, as it represents the traditional way of doing things. No barriers except for ever more strict EU policy and environmental regulations.




DIESEL TECHNOLOGY EVOLUTION (NOx & Particulates)




DIESEL TECHNOLOGY EVOLUTION (Fuel Consumption)




• In the last ten years, the diesel engine has undergone a “silent revolution”, with a breakthrough in technology.

• A “clean” diesel of today, compared to a diesel of ten years ago produces:– ten times less emissions and black smoke– twenty-five times less noise

• It will be further developed toward lower emissions and noise, and will further enhance its well known features of– high energetic efficiency– reliability– low cost

• It will probably remain for several years as the backbone of road transport.



Sub-Task 1.1.1 - Recent developments on current fossil fuel internal combustion technology (NATURAL GAS)

NGVs seem to be quickly coming into the market, seizing and sharing most of the traditional combustion technologies. The technical feasibility has improved along with better tuning of stoichiometric conditions of combustion. Costs are rather similar to conventional Diesel technologies, provided economies of scale in production are attained. NGV’s have the potential to contribute to render the transports sector less dependent on oil from now improving security of energy supply in the short term. Somewhat limited supply of natural gas network, makes it more practical in UPT, although acceptability by the industry is still at odds sometimes. Strict regulations are major barriers to wider spread of technology when compared to what happens in other parts of the world (e.g. South America)





# Country NGVs Stations

1 Argentina 1200000 1105

2 India 159159 166

3 Egypt 49111 79

4 Canada 20505 222

5 J apan 18463 226

6 Bolivia 15486 37

7 Great Britain 875 34

8 Moldavia 800 87

9 Switzerland 761 27

10 Brazil 600 600

11 Pakistan 410 423

12 Spain 403 21

13 I taly 400 463

14 Turkey 400 2

15 Czech Republic 390 15

16 Austria 350 45

17 Latvia 350 4

18 Netherlands 310 8

19 Belgium 300 5

20 Portugal 242 5


The latest CNG technology: MPI engines

• Like in petrol engines, injection has replaced the carburettor.• Optimum transient behaviour for power and emissions• “Robust design” for reliability• Stoichiometric combustion• Technology common to cars and heavy vehicles




vs Other Combustion Technologies

• Emission point of view: – CNG (stoichiometric) technology is today and will remain

tomorrow well within EEV limits

• Cost point of view: – CNG will approach diesel, remaining the cheapest technology

for EEV vehicles.

• Strategic availability: – not concentrated in certain geo-political areas like crude oil

• Safety with respect to LPG (CNG is lighter than air)• Industrial availability:

– CNG vehicles are today industrially available, having passed the prototype stage

EEV: Enhanced Environmentally Friendly Vehicles and Engines




SOME FACTS ABOUT NGV’s: •Most countries recognize benefits of NGVS, and plan to expand the use of NGV:•Italy has about 400,000 NGVS, with a network of 460 filling stations

•Russia has about 75,000 NGV's and a fuelling network of some 250 stations.

•Outside of these countries, there are several thousand NGVs in Europe and a slowly growing fuelling station infrastructure.

•Argentina has over 1 million NGVs and is converting more than 5,000 vehicles a month with over 1000 fuelling stations in operation or under development.

•Venezuela has a national NGV programme and is installing 60 fuelling stations

•Canada has about 36,000 vehicles converted to natural gas, and a government supported NGV programme with incentives for fleets to convert their vehicles,

•In the U.S.A. there are about 83,000 vehicles fuelled on natural gas, since 1960s. Comparative prices with gasoline and state-of-the-art technologies are only now making natural gas economically and technologically competitive with gasoline vehicles. There are about 1,216 private and public refuelling stations.

TASK 1.1 OVERVIEWTASK 1.1 OVERVIEWSub-Task 1.1.1 - Recent developments on current fossil fuel internal combustion technology (NATURAL GAS)


Sub-Task 1.1.2. - Application of innovative technologies in transport

Characterisation, current status and potential impacts on fuel efficiency and the environment and barriers to technological applications

ELECTRIC VEHICLES

HYBRID

FUEL CELLS




ELECTRIC VEHICLESCharacteristics


Transmission

Power Unit(motor/controller)

Fuel (batteries)

Regenerative Brakes(energy returns to batteries)



ELECTRIC VEHICLESCharacteristics


• Fuel costs up to 50% lower

• Lower maintenance costs

• Increased rider comfort

• Higher initial torque provides acceleration

• Exemption from emission inspections

• Convenience of home refueling

• EVs are 100% “green” vehicles, if energy source is renewable.

• Problems with energy storage, charging and battery lifetime



HYBRID VEHICLES

Combined “Combustion-Electric” engine vehicles seem to be the most promising alternative to pure combustion engines and are characterized by improved energy efficiency levels along with better environmental performance in local areas where electric propulsion takes over. Electric energy is supplied by batteries charged by the combustion engine. Costs are falling and major challenges remain on improving battery lifetime (currently Ni-MH - Nickel Metal Hydride ) and weight. Switching to this technology in the medium term seems viable and would represent a considerable reduction on use of primary sources such as oil. These vehicles comply with partially Zero Emissions standards.




HYBRID VEHICLESCharacteristics

• Range is greater than an EV.

• Emissions are reduced.

• Fuel mileage is improved.

• There is a potential for zero harmful emissions

Transmission

Power Unit(motor/controller)

Fuel(batteries)

AuxiliaryUnit Fuel

AuxiliaryPower Unit

Regenerative Brakes

Generator




HYBRID VEHICLESCharacteristics

• Series HEV– Electric motor powers the vehicle.– Engine runs at constant speed and charges the

battery pack.– Location of the APU motor/generator is flexible.

• Parallel HEV– APU engine and electric motor are connected to the

drive system--improves efficiency.– Greater power is available using the APU engine and

electric motor simultaneously.– No generator is needed.

• Combination HEV– Characteristics of both series and hybrid HEVs.– More components and a more complex control

system is needed.




HYBRID VEHICLESin Transport Applications

• Switch between ICE and EV • Hybrids can recharge energy lost in braking.• Are forerunners for future fully electric vehicles relying on e.g.

fuel cells• Cars

– Lighter materials being usedLighter materials being used– Gas engine can be turned off when not in useGas engine can be turned off when not in use

• Buses– Hybrids are approx. 50% more efficientHybrids are approx. 50% more efficient– Also reductions in pollutionAlso reductions in pollution

BEST CASE SCENARIO: CITY DRIVING


While far from “near-zero”, hybrid vehicles and advanced While far from “near-zero”, hybrid vehicles and advanced ICE vehicles can provide important savings.ICE vehicles can provide important savings.



HYDROGENin Transport Applications

• All the advantages of electric vehicles (if running on Fuel Cells), and without the recharging problem

• Other H2 Vehicle Technologies

– Advanced ICE optimised for H2

– Hybrid ICE optimsed for H2




HYDROGEN


FC VEHICLE INVESTMENTS NEEDED

2030 2050

Cumulative FC Vehicle Production in OECD (millions)

14 261

Share of Vehicle Sales (%) 10 50

Share of Vehicle Stock (%) 2.2 33

Incremental Cost/VehicleOptimistic-Pessimistic ($)

3,300-16,400

1,300-9,900

Total Incremental CostOpt-Pessimistic ($ billions)

50-250

350-2,700

SOURCE: IEASOURCE: IEA



HYDROGEN


• Massive government intervention is likely needed to overcome the uncertainties and obstacles of a transition period.

• Government interventions are difficult to maintain over long periods of time (i.e., over changing national administrations).

• There is substantial uncertainty as to whether fuel cell costs can be brought down to low-enough levels to be acceptable to consumers.

• Vehicle range is an unsolved problem.

• Sufficient H2 supply without CO2 emissions is likely to be available before 2050 only if carbon capture & storage can be applied on a large scale.

• Reducing transport sector CO2 emissions with H2 is far more costly than reducing CO2 emissions in the power sector.



Environmental Target ‘s ComplianceEnvironmental Target ‘s Compliance

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Year

NO

x [

g/k

wh

]

Diesel engines

CNG lean burn

CNG stoich.

EEV limits

Fuel cells

Hybrid




Vehicle cost comparisonVehicle cost comparison

100

200

300

400

500

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Year

Veh

icle

co

st [

kEu

ro]

CNG

DIESEL

Fuel cells

Hybrid

Trolley bus




MOST LIKELY STRATEGIES FOR THE NEXT YEARS

There are three clearly established possibilities for new technological solutions to deliver near-zero CO2 emission

•hydrogen

•electricity

•biofuels

Each fuel has its own set of limitations and technical challenges, however Hydrogen is increasingly seen as the next generation of motor vehicle technology.




MOST LIKELY STRATEGIES FOR THE NEXT YEARS•Continuous improvement of the “clean” diesel engine, which will remain for years the backbone of road transport

•Significant increase in the share of NGVs and Hybrid Vehicles (both serial & parallel types), mostly in UPT

•Improvements in on-board energy storage system for electric based vehicles and deployment of localised electric charging points

•Adoption of innovative light weight Private vehicle concepts (SMART, etc..)

•Use of alternative fuels and driveline systems for congested urban areas (urban buses, garbage collection, delivery).

Alternative fuels: the preferred choice is CNG/hybrid

Electric Vehicles: pure electric (Gulliver, etc..) and hybrid (gas turbine, diesel, etc..)



Sub-Task 1.1.3. - Energy Supply Issues (NGV)

•Basic Natural Gas infrastructure for housing and industry is wide spread across Europe, making it rather easy to extend the current network to specific spots.

•However safety is an important issue and therefore most of the NGV applications remain in the UPT field, where supply infrastructure is build as required at relatively low cost.

•NGV providers are keen on developing this business area and can be often found in join-ventures with transport operators assuming or sharing costs of the refuelling installations

•As it happens with other ‘less conventional’ technologies, and due to the infrastructure supply issue, UPTs are seen as privileged forerunners in the adoption and testing of fuelling stations in most countries.



Sub-Task 1.1.3. - Energy Supply Issues (NGV)

# Country NGVs Stations

1 Argentina 1200000 1105

2 India 159159 166

3 Egypt 49111 79

4 Canada 20505 222

5 J apan 18463 226

6 Bolivia 15486 37

7 Great Britain 875 34

8 Moldavia 800 87

9 Switzerland 761 27

10 Brazil 600 600

11 Pakistan 410 423

12 Spain 403 21

13 I taly 400 463

14 Turkey 400 2

15 Czech Republic 390 15

16 Austria 350 45

17 Latvia 350 4

18 Netherlands 310 8

19 Belgium 300 5

20 Portugal 242 5

Infrastructure for NGV’s is growing quickly as more VEHICLES are either converted or coming in to the market

Special attention to South America, where specially Argentina has shown a significant growth in NGV applications in transports, in the wake of the recent economic recession



In order to become widespread, ELECTRIC VEHICLES require charging stations across cities strategically located in e.g parking lots. This call for some investments, however well below the investment needed to deliver alternative fuels such as Hydrogen, as electric energy is rather omnipresent. In any case it represents a basic requirement on which EV’s are completely depending.

Several initiatives are already taking place in Europe regarding use of charging stations for e.g electric scooters and other small sized electric vehicles.

Safety is not a major problem


Sub-Task 1.1.3. - Energy Supply Issues (ELECTRIC)


Sub-Task 1.1.3. - Energy Supply Issues (ELECTRIC)


Vehicle EV SupplyEquipment

Wiring ingarage orcarport

Electricalservice

HOME CHARGING DIAGRAM


Sub-Task 1.1.3. - Energy Supply Issues (HYBRID)

HYBRID VEHICLES do not require any new infrastructure as they rely on existing supply structure for oil products.

If running on NG, will however require specific charging stations, as described before.



Sub-Task 1.1.3. - Energy Supply Issues (H2)

To shift from a oil based transport system will require adapting infrastructure of supply depending on choice of technology. Besides the cost of any changes in the supply infrastructure, the most important balance will be the well to wheel balancing, ensuring that effective improvements in energy dependence from fossil fuels and their external consequences are taken into account

PROBLEMS WITH PRODUCTION OF ENERGY CARRIERS, SUCH AS HYDROGEN





MAJOR ISSUE IS:

•Investors are reluctant to build H2 capacity in anticipation of uncertain vehicle sales .

•Auto manufacturers reluctant to build large numbers of H2 vehicles without assured H2 supplies and distribution.

CHICKEN AND EGG PROBLEMCHICKEN AND EGG PROBLEM




• Energy use can occur at every step in the “well-to-wheel-cycle chain”:

• primary fuel mining and preparation• primary fuel transport• conversion to car fuel• car fuel transportation• car fuel storage• conversion of car fuel to useful energy




• Alternative Sources of Hydrogen

– Coal with & without CO2 capture & storage

– Gas with & without CO2 capture & storage

– Electrolysis of water with CO2-free electricity

– Biomass production

There are a variety of hydrogen supply and end-use technologies that have different full fuel chain impacts CO2 emissions and energy resource use


Sub-Task 1.1.3. - Energy Supply Issues


ESTIMATION OF FUTURE DELIVERED FUEL SUPPLY COSTS

($/GJ)

Gasoline or Diesel

Nat Gas H2: NG-CO2

H2: Coal-CO2

Production Costs 2.0-2.8 NA 1.2-2.7 4.7-6.3Distribution Costs <1-1 <1-1 2 2

Delivered Costs 6-9 3-5 7-11 8-11

SOURCE: IEASOURCE: IEA

H2:Gsftn

Biomass

H2: On-S Wind

H2: Off-S Wind

H2: Solar Thermal

Production Costs 5-6 5 5 5Distribution Costs 2-5 2-5 2-5 2-5

Delivered Costs 10-18 17-23 22-30 27-35


Improved DIESEL efficiency

Price

Refuel

Investments

Security of supply

Cost-effective and commercial potentialN/A

None in terms of infrastructure

Lower Energy use & emissions

Slightly Less imports

Biofuels

Expensive

Can be used in existing vehicles and distribution system. Little investment needed.

Potentially 100% indigenous

Up to 60% CO2 reduction advantage.

Can be mixed in the current diesel or gasoline

Energy/ Environment

SYNTHESIS OF TASK 1.1SYNTHESIS OF TASK 1.1


NGV’s

Price

Refuel

Investments

Security of supply

Energy/ Environment

Cost-effective and commercial potentialLimited places to refuelCan be used in existing cars with modifications. Investment needed in refuelling facilities.Potentially 20-25% less consumption and CO2

emissions than gasolineIs also imported but more evenly distributed

Hydrogen

Expensive

New cars needed. Investment needed in storage and distribution.

Need investments in production and distribution

Depending on how electricity is produced. No emissions from the car.

Depending on type of energy used to produce electricity.




Price

Refuel

Investments

Security of supply

Energy/ Environment

Electric cars

Batteries are costly

Slow but easy recharging

More efficient. Emissions depending on how electricity is produced. No emissions from the carDepending on type of energy used to produce electricity

Hybrid cars

Batteries smaller but still expensive since 2 engines

Highly viable

Decreased Fuel Dependence.

Up to 30% fuels savings and corresponding emissions.

Everywhere

Highly viable



Through 2010Through 2010 – initiatives will be taken to slow – initiatives will be taken to slow the growth rate of oil use / CO2 as much as the growth rate of oil use / CO2 as much as possible. To do that, NGVs (ICE) and HYBRID possible. To do that, NGVs (ICE) and HYBRID vehicles seem quite promising alternatives right vehicles seem quite promising alternatives right from today, with the particularity that HYBRIDs from today, with the particularity that HYBRIDs may clear the way to fully electric vehicles may clear the way to fully electric vehicles relying either on improved energy storage relying either on improved energy storage capacity or on Fuel Cells running on Hydrogencapacity or on Fuel Cells running on Hydrogen

After 2010After 2010 - trend seems to be moving seriously - trend seems to be moving seriously towards a much more sustainable transport towards a much more sustainable transport system, featuring near-zero CO2 emissions and system, featuring near-zero CO2 emissions and secure sources of energy supply, probably along secure sources of energy supply, probably along with a growing share of EVs and HYBRID based with a growing share of EVs and HYBRID based on NG and Dieselon NG and Diesel

FOR THE PURPOSE OF MODELLING SCENARIOS, SOME KEY FOR THE PURPOSE OF MODELLING SCENARIOS, SOME KEY BACKGROUND ASPECTS SEEM TO BE:BACKGROUND ASPECTS SEEM TO BE:


Thank you for your Thank you for your attentionattention

STEPS WP1 – Task 1.1 Consortium Meeting Lisbon, April, 29th, 2004 Slide 1 C.Marques STEPS Scenarios for the Transport System and Energy Supply and their.

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