DOOMED TO FAIL OR BOUND TO SUCCEED? SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND THE GREEN ECONOMY AGENDA: REVISITED Achim Steiner Director, Oxford Martin School STEPS Centre Annual Lecture, Institute of Development Studies/ University of Sussex 15 May 2017
STEPS Annual Lecture 2017: Achim Steiner - Doomed to fail or bound to succeed? Sustainable Development and the Green Economy Agenda – Revisited
Jan 21, 2018
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DOOMED TO FAIL OR BOUND
TO SUCCEED?
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
AND THE GREEN ECONOMY AGENDA:
REVISITED
Achim SteinerDirector, Oxford Martin School
STEPS Centre Annual Lecture, Institute of Development Studies/ University of Sussex
15 May 2017
Climate change
Antibiotic resistance Emerging viruses
Novel biotechnologies
Oil prices
Migrant crises
Inequality
FamineTerrorism Cybersecurity Financial Stability
Political upheaval
Air pollution
Nuclear proliferation
Environmental disasters
The Global ‘In-Tray’
There is clearly huge uncertainty…
The role of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis
Historically, far-right votes tend to increase in the years following systemic banking stress, and when depressed economic conditions are allowed to persist (Funke et al 2015, Bromhead et al 2012)
Globalisation, mass flows of humans and capital, and persistent inequality
• Capital has flowed ‘uphill’ to wealthy countries
• Import shocks have disrupted regional economies
• Immigration has not easily resulted in integration
Source: www.viewsoftheworld.net
What does the Anthropocene look like?
Source: Living Planet Report 2016
Climate Change
• Current CO2 concentrations are higher than they have been over the last 800,000 years• There is an established cause-effect chain from emissions to concentrations to temperatures
Global mean temperatures since 1850Global mean CO2 concentrations since 1850The use of the global carbon budget
Source: Ed Hawkins / www.pick-potsdam.de
Climate change is already contributing
New York Times
Climate change in the Fertile Crescent and implications of the recent Syrian drought, Kelley et al, PNAS 2016
Rapidly shifting scientific & technological landscapes
Source: Techonomy, 2016
The result: Deepening political segmentation and polarisation
• Financial crises are policy failures, and repeated policy failures devalue traditional sources of authority (Krugman, NYT)
• Paradigm shifts bring complexity, blurring and unpredictability
• ‘Reactionary’ political movements arising globally are borne of a desire for control, simplicity, safety and order
• “People are talking to their governments using 21st Century technology, governments listen on 20th Century technology and respond with 19th Century policies” (Madeleine Albright)
SustainabilityDecarbonisation
The great challenge: managing transitions and complexity
Prolonged fiscal aftershocks
Dramatic technological change
Mass movement of people
OECD-FAO predicts that global agricultural production will only grow 1.5% annually over the next 10 years compared with 2.1% in the last decade.
Increasing crop production
increase the frequency of cropping (e.g. using
irrigation)
Sub-Saharan Africa currently has the world’s lowest cereal yields:1.25
tonnes/ha versus developed countries, developing Asia and Latin America which
all attain around 4 tonnes/ha
Agriculture uses 37% of global landmass
(excluding Antarctica)
Reducing waste
Agriculture accounts for 70% of all freshwater
drawn from rivers, lakes and aquifers
increase land use
increase yields
Around 30% of the food produced globally is wasted –around 1.3bn tonnes. Food
waste in high-income countries is dominated by consumer waste.
Food waste in developing countries is at the pre- and post-
harvest and processing stages due to spoilage
Food and Agriculture
‘Business as usual’: land use change
• More land was converted to cropland in the 30 years after 1950 than in the 150 years between 1700 and 1850
• In 2000 cultivated systems cover 25% of Earth’s terrestrial surface
Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, UNEP
• An estimated 23% of all usable land is degraded
• 20% of the world’s pasture and rangelands have been damaged
• 580m ha of forests have been degraded by logging and clearance, nearly 40% of this since 1975
World Water Requirements
Source: 2030 Water Resources Group, 2013
Around 20% of the world’s aquifers are being over-exploited
Global water withdrawals are projected to increase by 55% through 2050, due to growing demands from manufacturing (400%), thermal electricity generation (140%), and domestic use (130%)
An estimated 30% of global water withdrawals are lost through leakage
Energy demand is expected to increase by 32% by 2040, with global electricity demand growing by over 70%
Renewables are expected by the IEA to overtake coal as the largest source of electricity by the early 2030s
World Energy Requirements
Source: IEA, 2013
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Sustainable Development Goals
The SDGs are a powerful shared vision of development
They recognise the complexity of the challenge
They are universal, and they are integrated
The 2030 Agenda
• The SDGs are integrative: they promote economic development, social protection and environmental health
• A healthy, well-functioning environment is crucial for the health of human beings
• The SDGs are universal: they represent universal principles, standards and values applicable to all countries and all peoples
• National and global development is connected
• The 2030 Agenda is a fundamental shift from a growth-based economic model to a sustainable and equitable one
Green Economy Definitions
• Multiple green economy and green growth definitions have been developed, including the following: – UNEP: “A green economy is one that results in improved human well-
being and social equity, while significantly reducing environmental risks and ecological scarcity.” (UNEP, Green Economy Reports: A Preview, 2010, p. 4-5)
– OECD: ”Green growth means fostering economic growth and development while ensuring that natural assets continue to provide the resources and environmental services on which our well-being relies.” (Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), Towards Green Growth, 2011, p. 9)
– Green Economy Coalition: “An economy that provides better quality of life for all within the ecological limits of the planet” (Green Economy Coalition: http://www.greeneconomycoalition.org/)
Source: UNEP 2015
Envisioning a circular and green economy
Source: UNEP 2015
Resource decoupling: using less land, water, energy & materials to maintain economic growth
Impact decoupling: using resources wisely over their lifetime to reduce environmental impact
The Headwinds…particularly for SDG10: Inequality
• OECD employment: challenged by automation, (perceived effects of) immigration, and lack of economic resilience
• African employment: the transition from an agrarian economy
• Politically shifting sands: USA retreating, China engaging
• Aid fatigue – and the implication for climate victims
• And increasing questions over the role of traditional international policy pathways and their ability to effect change
The role of public policy
COP-21 in Paris is a legally binding treaty
Each country’s nationally determined contribution (NDC) of greenhouse gas emission reductions will be enacted through domestic mitigation measures
All countries must produce a Low Emission Development Strategy by 2020
Emissions
The Green Economy
• Achieving the SDGs opens up an economic prize of at least US$12 trillion by 2030 for the private sector, and potentially 2-3x more
• Over 50% of the prize is located in developing countries
Source: Business Commission Report, 2017
Job Creation and Business Opportunities from the Sustainable Development Goals
Product reformulation
Cattle intensification
Reducing packaging
waste
Technology in smallholder
farms
Reducing food waste in value
chain
Technology in large scale
farms
Low-income food markets
Restoring degraded land
Forest ecosystem
services
Micro-irrigation
Reducing consumer food
waste
Dietary switch
Sustainable aquaculture
Urban agriculture
US$405bn
US$365bn
US$265bn
US$220bn
US$205bn
US$180bn
US$140bn
US$125bn
US$105bn
US$85bn
US$85bn
US$65bn
US$55bn
US$40bn
Business opportunities from the SDGs
The dollar amount is the difference between an estimate of a business-as-usual scenario and the SDG scenario, in 2030. Source: Valuing the SDG Prize, 2017
Road safety equipment
Office sharing
Water & sanitation infrastructure
Municipal water leakage
Affordable housing
Autonomous vehicles
Public transport in urban areas
Smart metering
Energy efficiency -buildings
Cultural tourism
Car sharing
Internal combustion engine fuel efficiency
Building resilient cities
Electric and hybrid vehicles
US$1080bn
US$770bn
US$205bn
US$205bn
US$170bnUS$160bn
US$155bn
US$155bn
US$110bnUS$90bn
US$90bn
US$90bn
US$70bn
US$320bn
Business opportunities from the SDGs
The dollar amount is the difference between an estimate of a business-as-usual scenario and the SDG scenario, in 2030. Source: Valuing the SDG Prize, 2017
Timber buildings
US$40bn
Durable and modular buildings
US$40bn
Energy efficiency –non energy intensive
industries
Mine rehabilitation
Shared infrastructure
Energy access
Circular economy -automotive
End-use steel efficiency
Circular economy -electronics
Local content in extractives
Expansion of renewables
Green chemicals
Resource recovery
Energy efficiency –energy-intensive
industriesCarbon capture and storage
Circular economy – appliances and
machinery
US$810bn
US$605bn
US$365bn
US$210bn
US$315bn
US$195bn
US$175bn
US$150bn
US$150bnUS$130bn
US$120bn
US$120bn
US$65bn
US$525bn
Business opportunities from the SDGs
The dollar amount is the difference between an estimate of a business-as-usual scenario and the SDG scenario, in 2030. Source: Valuing the SDG Prize, 2017
Energy storage
US$260bn
Additive manufacturing
US$125bn
Grid interconnection
US$35bn
China’s emergence as a ‘global leader’
• China and the low carbon economy– 2016 investment in renewable energy: $88bn
– 1 new wind turbine being installed every hour
– Beijing set to implement the world’s largest emissions trading system in 2017
– China’s emerging green bonds market could deliver $230bn over next 5 years
– 2016 China’s foreign investment spend on renewable projects: $32bn in 2016
(Source: N Stern, Financial Times 2017)
Davos 2017: Xi Jinping’s speech defends global trade and the Paris climate agreement and calls for stronger international co-operation to meet today’s global problems
Ecological Civilisation
• A national strategy for innovative, concerted, green, open and inclusive development
• 18th National Congress, 2012: China must incorporate the idea of ecological civilization into all aspects of economic, political, cultural and social progress
• An ethical morality and ideology which realizes harmonious co-existence with nature and sustainable development reflecting the progress of civilization
Cause for optimism: current progress on the SDGs
• Maintaining the present pathways, by 2030…– Extreme poverty will be eliminated across much of Asia
– Global maternal mortality will be reduced to 150 deaths per 100,000 births
– Sub-Saharan Africa will see the largest increase in the proportion of young people completing secondary education
– More than 1.7bn people globally will gain access to electricity
– Inequality will fall in low-income countries
– There will be a halt to declining forest cover with an increase beginning from 2020
Source: www.developmentprogress.org
We live in a moment of great opportunity
www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk
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