Stephen Ward

© 2010 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu

1st April 2010

Stephen Ward

Partner

Deloitte

Predictions 2010Technology, Media and Telecommunications

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Global Conversations, localised since 2003 within the Dutch Marketplace

2010 Telecom, Media & Tech Predictions.

2010 Dutch TMT Predictions

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Predictions 2010

Designed to start a conversation – not to stop it!

Drivers:

1. Direction of the Economy - Recovery U, a V or a W?

2. Pace of Digitalisation

3. Adoption Mobile Broadband

Predictions 2010 3

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Predictions 2010: Selected Predictions

• Green – “meer werk aan de winkel”• The Social Telco wakes up• The Smart focus on Search• Widening the bottleneck: telecom technology helps

decongest the mobile network. • Linear’s got legs• Mobile VoIP becomes a social network• Music as a service rises up the charts • Cloudy conditions ahead

2010 Dutch TMT Predictions

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Green :

The line goes Leaner and Greener

• Today 15-25 million old mobile phones in Netherlands• Lifespan of handsets 5-7 years, 87% replaced within 18 months• In 2010, 7 million new phones expected to be sold/upgraded• Only 5% of new deals is old mobile recycled• Telecom 2% energy use in NL (compariable to aviation)

We have started, but we can do more:• Nationale Retourweken (Connexie launched 16th Jan)• T-Mobile NL & TNT Post (initiative launched 6th Jan)• Focus on software upgrades and covers • UMTS masts and data centre efficiency initiatives

2010 Dutch TMT Predictions

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The Social Telco wakes up:

Telco’s start to become ‘social’

135.000 updated Telco pages (NL) in the last month.

from which

48.900 blog & forum pageswhich will contain

+/- 100.000 customer opinions

New modem

causes problems

High volume

Reminders aboutalready paid invoices

Negative sentiment

2010 Dutch TMT Predictions

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The Smart focus on Search:

The smart phone becomes a search phone

2010 Dutch TMT Predictions

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Problems mean profit:

Widening the bottleneck: telecom technology helps decongest the mobile network.

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’09: Smart phones > portable PCs ’10: Smart phone > 1 GHz

’11: Smart phones > all PCs ’12: Smart phones > 0.5 billion

Predictions 2010

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Competition and curve balls

Mobile VoIP becomes a social network

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•3G and WiFi•Low-cost service – calls

carried over the top of an IP-based network.

•Past issues:•Restrictions on VoIP over

3G;•Patchy WiFi availability•Relatively high cost of WiFi-

enabled phones•Falling price of switched

mobile telephony

In the past - modest revenues, $50 to $100

million in 2009

•Enablers:•A rise in the installed base of the

Wi-Fi-enabled mobile phones;•A rise in WiFi hotspots (public

hotspots to number a quarter of a million at the start of 2010.

•Falling prices for data packages are causing switched voice to have an increasing premium over mobile VoIP

•Drivers:•Capability to broadcast to friends•Offer unlimited storage and

search•Voicemail storage – messages

can be searched for, made visual, transcribed, translated, broadcasted to groups, sent to individuals

•Offer high-fidelity calls at higher prices.

In three years global VoIP market could be worth over $30 billion

Predictions 2010

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Cloud(y) conditions ahead:

Music as a service rises up the charts

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Total revenues 2010

Subscription music services –

$100 million

CDs global sales - $14.4 billion

Digital downloads - $ 6 billion

More useful More used More valued

In 2010 subscription music services should finally start to thrive – the number of paying subscribers should exceed 10 million for the first time.

The growth in of the subscription music services is likely to be because of greater levels of functionality, and becoming accessible via more platforms:

Predictions 2010

annual revenue per music subscriber is up to $180, higher than that of a heavy CD buyer

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“A typical day in 2010 is unlikely to feel much different to today. We will probably not be teleporting breakfast or using quantum computers, nor will we be watching holographic TV or travelling to work in flying cars. A

lucky few will likely be flying to the edge of space but for the rest of us, change will probably be more subtle, with TMT advances pervading ever more deeply into

our daily lives.  

“Indeed the greater ubiquity of TMT – from the car to the classroom, the living room to the office and

essentially everywhere in between is likely to be the most noticeable change.

Eye to the Future (Predictions 2010)2006

How do (did) we do?

A view from 2006

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More Info:Full Reports/podcasts available:

Web: www.deloitte.com/tmtpredictionsEmail: [email protected]

Telecom Academy / Mini MBAhttp://www.nyenrode.nl

2010 Dutch TMT Predictions

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Predictions 2010.

Predictions 2010 – London launch, 19th January 2010

© 2010 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu

2010 Technology Predictions

1. Smaller than a netbook and bigger than a smartphone – net tablets arrive2. Moore’s Law is alive and well in 20103. Cloud computing: more than hype but less than hyper4. Thinking thin is in again: virtual desktop infrastructures challenge the PC5. IT procurement stands on its head6. CleanTech makes a comeback. But solar stays in the shadows7. From gray to green: technology reinvents cement

Predictions 2010 – London launch, 19th January 201014

© 2010 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu

2010 Media Predictions

1. Linear's got legs: the television and radio schedule stays supreme2. The shift to online advertising: more selective, but the trend continues3. eReaders fill a niche, but eBooks fly off the (virtual) shelves4. Publishing fights back: paywalls and micropayments5. TV and the web belong together, but not necessarily on the same screen6. Music as a service rises up the charts7. Video on demand takes off – thanks to the vending machine8. One step back, two steps forward for 3D TV

Predictions 2010 – London launch, 19th January 201015

© 2010 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu

2010 Telecommunications Predictions

1. The smartphone becomes a search phone2. Mobile VoIP becomes a social network3. Widening the bottleneck: telecom technology helps

decongest the mobile network4. Paying for what we eat: carriers change data

pricing and make regulators happy5. Nixing the nines: reliability redefined and

reassessed6. Contract 2.0: long term solutions shorten and

multiply7. The line goes leaner. And greener.

Predictions 2010 – London launch, 19th January 201016