Stephen Minton - Tech Transformation in the Age of Uncertainty - SESERV SE Workshop June 2012

7/31/2019 Stephen Minton - Tech Transformation in the Age of Uncertainty - SESERV SE Workshop June 2012

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6-12 2011 IDC 2

Competing for 2020 On a New Platform

By 2020, when the ICTindustry reaches $5 trillion almost $2 trillion larger than itis today at least 80% of theindustry's growth will driven by: Third platform technologies An explosion of new solutions built

on the new platform Rapidly expanding consumption of

all of the above in matureeconomies and emerging markets

In 2012, battles to lead the ICTmarketplace of 2020 will startto be won and lost.

The Third Platform for

IT Industry Growth & Innovation


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6-12 2011 IDC

The State of Play IT Industry Growth

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Source : IDC Worldwide Black Book; growth in constant currency

Worldwide IT Spending Growth 1996-2014 (%)


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6-12 2011 IDC

The State of Play European IT Market

4

European Union 2011

IT % of GDP 2.62%IT Taxes ($m) 506,123IT Companies 393,301IT Workers 7,879,412IT Spending ($m) 470,930

-8.00%

-6.00%

-4.00%

-2.00%

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016IT Spending

IT Investment is stalling due to weak business and consumer confidence, in

addition to direct impact of government austerity and cutbacksVC funding is surprisingly strong, focused on European firms targetingglobal market opportunities

Long-haul recovery for European IT market is likely, with growth laggingpre-recession levels for next five years

Source : IDC Worldwide Black Book; growth in constant currency


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6-12 2011 IDC 5

The State of Play Internet Users

0

500'000'000

1'000'000'000

1'500'000'000

2'000'000'000

2'500'000'000

3'000'000'000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Rest of World

Europe

Western Europe Internet penetration leveling off at 350 million, but global penetration still surging dueto emerging markets growth (especially BRIC), approaching 40% of world population by 2015

Source : IDC Information Society Index


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6-12 2011 IDC

The State of Play Internet Penetration

6

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Internet Broadband Mobile Internet

World

Europe

Mobile Internet penetration still surging in mature economies and emerging markets; broadband penetrationis slower in some emerging markets; more than a third of population in Europe now using mobile web



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The State of Play European Internet

Personal

Small Business

Medium/LargeBusiness

Government

Education

Wired

Mobile

Younger than 5

5 to 14

15 to 24

25 to 39

40 to 54

55 or older

PC

Non-PC



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Western Europe Internet Devices

0

100'000'000

200'000'000

300'000'000

400'000'000

500'000'000

600'000'000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

PC

Non-PC



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Worldwide Internet Device Spending ($m)

Source: IDC Worldwide Black Book

0

100'000

200'000

300'000400'000

500'000

600'000

700'000

800'000

Feature PhoneSmartphoneTabletPC


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11/326-12 2011 IDC 11

Information Society Index 2011



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2012: Transformation Amidst Chaos

A Year of Instability in ICT Markets,European economy in crisis, but keyICT transformations Continue:

ICT market expansion throughdisruptive Cloud model, driving re-

architecture of vendor models,platforms, identities, policy

Ascendance of mobile devices andapps the post-PC era begins

Shift of customer design point towardSMB/consumer, emerging markets

Infrastructure challenges continuinggrowth of digital information on servers

and networks, security challenges


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Weve been down this road before

13


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From IT Doesnt Matter

14


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.to the Next Web

15


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Network Evolution .


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..to Network Revolution


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Internet of Things Part 1

Units Installed Worldwide (millions)

0

1'000

2'000

3'000

4'000

5'000

6'000

7'000

8'000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

ComputersHandhelds

Networking

Industrial/automotive

Embedded

Household

Source: IDC Everything Network


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Internet of Things Part 2

Units Installed Worldwide (millions)

0

200'000

400'000

600'000

800'000

1'000'000

1'200'000

1'400'000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Sensors and Tags

Everything Else

Source: IDC Everything Network


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0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

2 0 0 5

2 0 0 6

2 0 0 7

2 0 0 8

2 0 0 9

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3

2 0 1 4

2 0 1 5

2 0 1 6

2 0 1 7

2 0 1 8

2 0 1 9

2 0 2 0

The Information Explosion Continues

Source: The Expanding Digital Universe, IDC; sponsored by EMC

-

5'000

10'000

15'000

20'000

25'000

30'000

35'000

2 0 0 5

2 0 0 6

2 0 0 7

2 0 0 8

2 0 0 9

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3

2 0 1 4

2 0 1 5

2 0 1 6

2 0 1 7

2 0 1 8

2 0 1 9

2 0 2 0

Imaging

Data

Voice


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The Transaction Explosion Continues

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Internet Commerce-Related Transactions

Billions WW

Source: IDC Internet Commerce Market Model


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0

2'0004'000

6'000

8'000

10'000

12'000

14'000

16'000

18'000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

B i l l i o n

s

Rest of World

Europe

The E-Commerce Explosion Continues

Total E-Commerce Spending ($billion)

Western Europe E-Commerce ($billion)

02'0004'0006'0008'000

10'00012'00014'00016'00018'000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

B i l l i o n s

Wireline

Mobile

Worldwide E-Commerce ($billion)

0

500

1'000

1'500

2'000

2'500

3'000

3'500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

B i l l i o n

s

Wireline

Mobile



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New Information on the Network

23


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Appetite for Transformation

Mobile Apps

Cloud Computing

Infrastructure Transformation

New Data

Analysis


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W E P bli Cl d S i


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6-12 2011 IDC 27

Western Europe Public Cloud ServicesSpending ($m)

Benelux

France

GermanyItaly

Nordics

Spain

U.K.

Other

0

1'000

2'000

3'000

4'000

5'000

6'0007'000

8'000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

SaaS

PaaS

IaaS

Source : IDC European Public Cloud Services Forecast


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6-12 2011 IDC 28

Big Data: Management & Analytics

The "digital universe" will grow to 2.7ZB in2012, up 48% from 2011, and rocketingtoward nearly 8ZB by 2015

Continuing buying spree to strengthen

vendors information managementcapabilities

"Compliant clouds" will become standardfare

In a world of increasingly "big data," real-time, pervasive analytics offerings; newmethodologies for data collection


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6-12 2011 IDC 29

Social Business Gets Serious

Enterprise software vendors will get moreaggressive, drive a lot of M&A

Facebook aims at becoming the B2Cplatform of choice

Businesses and government focused onopportunity and risk, new policies tocontrol explosion of social media andblurring of lines between business/

personal usagePrivacy concerns on the rise mobilelocation-based advertising

Socio-economic impact could be profound


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6-12 2011 IDC

European Social Network Survey

30


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6-12 2011 IDC 31

Essential Guidance

Technology and Internet transformationcontinues, despite economic uncertainty:

Mobile devices have won decisively as weenter the post-PC era

Cloud platform battles will take hold

Social technologies will be a must have,despite concerns over security and privacy Digital Universe continues to explode Big Data will be essential capability

Emerging markets are already the newcenter of growth, driving new design points Internet of Things will be dominated by

non-traditional IT and machine-to-machinecommunications


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Contact Information

Please email me at

[email protected]

Stephen Minton - Tech Transformation in the Age of Uncertainty - SESERV SE Workshop June 2012

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