Steele on Intelligence What can we know, how? Reflections on the near future. Robert David Steele Vivas MALAS in St. Louis 5 November 2005 A copy of these.

Steele on IntelligenceWhat can we know, how?

Reflections on the near future.

Robert David Steele Vivas

MALAS in St. Louis

5 November 2005

A copy of these slides are at www.oss.net.

World War III Players

Bacteria

Nation-States

Gangs

Private Sector

Citizens

Mother EarthWater-Air-Green

You May Not Be Interested in Reality, But Reality is Interested in You

Information is a substitute for violence, capital, labor, time, and space. Information can create stabilizing indigenous

wealth.

Corrupt governments and immoral corporations or gangs destroy this option.

Good news: Collective Popular Intelligence is Emergent

Plan for the Briefing

• Two hours done in twenty minutes

• Slides posted so you can reflect more later

• 5 minutes on state of the art (Silobreaker)

• 5 minutes on sources in context

• 5 minutes on emerging technologies

• 5 minutes of ethics and morality

State of the Art

• Will blow through these• It’s not about separate sources anymore• It’s not about human reading anymore• It’s about integrating everything:

– Collecting relevant offline information– Machine-aided collation & exploitation– Connecting experts and their students– Presenting the information is a compelling way

OVERVIEWStart with an overview of what is happening in general in you area of interest

FOCUS ON A COUNTRY – VIEW 360Start with an overview of what is happening in general in you area of interest

FOCUS ON AN ORGANIZATIONSee specifics of people, places, etcetera with frequency of mention

FOCUS ON A PERSONPhotos, Quotations, Links to Others, Key Details

GET NEW INSIGHTSThis is the only global information that integrates sources with tools

READ IN DEPTH, IN CONTEXTAnything can be sent to the “scrapbook” where other tools can be applied

Silobreaker is the Next Google

• This costs $400 a year at full price.• Offered at $200 until the end of the year.• Test it free for seven days by following the

link at www.oss.net.• This has been my secret weapon for years,

now we are commoditizing it and moving on to more complex challenges—creating a World Brain.

Sources

• All information, all languages, all the time

• Going back 200 years, digitizing hardcopy

• 185 languages, 33 of them “core”

• 12 relevant dialects of Arabic

• Must follow television, radio, audio, street

• 80% of this, at least, is overlooked by IC

• Cannot be made sense of by single individual

Digital Analog Oral/Unpublished

EnglishLanguage

ForeignLanguages*

*29 predominant languages, over 3,000 distinct languages in all.

NSA FBIS UN/STATE

Cascading Deficiencies:1) Don’t even try to access most information2) Can’t process hard-copy into digital3) Can’t translate most of what we collect

CIA/DO

NRO

Global Intelligence FailureBreakdown in Collection and Understanding

50% Less CostlyM

ore

Sat

isfy

ing

SIGINT

OSINT

0% 50%

HUMINT

IMINT

MASINT

STATE

Does Not Exist

Global Processing FailureBreakdown in Exploitation, Dissemination

Seven Views of RealityNot sharing, not listening, costs us.

Military

Law Enforcement

Business

Academic

National

NGO &Media

Religions& Clans

OLD PARADIGM NEW PARADIGM

# = Your Top Issues, Local, National, Global

You Are Here...

12

3

Far Future

Near Future

Present

Historical Memory

New Craft of Intelligence

I

Lessons of History

II

Global Coverage

III

National Intelligence

IV

Spies & Secrecy

China, Islam, Ethnic, Etc.

Cost-Sharing with Others--Shared Early Warning

Narrowly focused!

Harness distributed intelligence of Nation

Technologies• Cell phone, not PC, will be primary access• XML, Geocoding, standards, are making data

smart—the context is in the content• IBM just linked DB2 with Google Enterprise

—when we add CISCO AON and CISCO IPICS, we will have a globally distributed instantly exploitable World Brain

• Foreign language man-machine networks and distributed advanced analytics will add value

• Gaming, not reports, will rule

Five Technical Trends• Cell phones allow for constant pervasive data entry including

streaming video/audio, and for instant locationally-aware receipt of relevant intelligence

• Googlization of intelligence, when enhanced, will put industrial era spies and aggregators out of business—CIA, Factiva, LEXIS, DIALOG--dead

• Open Hypertext Document (OHD) from Bootstrap (Doug Englebart) allows links, discovery, and micro-cash purchase at the paragraph level

• Synthetic information breaks the copyright chains—can still pay by the paragraph, but can also create new synthetic knowledge that is original

• Virtual reality games, not reports, will teach, inspire, allow for safe testing of different scenarios and investment strategies.

Ethics & Morality

• Secrecy is pathological—secrets can be ignored and manipulated—witness Iraq

• Secrecy displaces dialog—cult of secrecy• Secrecy enables corruption & treason—not

just by governments but by corporations (Enron), Media (NYT, medical journals), and religions (Catholic Church)

• Secrecy undermines social understanding of reality and allows rich to steal from the poor

TIME IMPACT SHORT

TIME IMPACT

LONG

MULTI-CULTURAL & TRANS-NATIONAL

EQUITIES

SINGLE-CULTURE SINGLE-ORGANIZATION

EQUITIES

LEADERS DECIDE

PEOPLE DECIDE

TOP-DOWN COMMAND & CONTROL

SECRET SOURCES & METHODS

BOTTOM-UP INFORMATION-SHARING

OPEN SOURCES & METHODS

OBVIOUS DETAIL

OBSCURE DETAIL

OLD

NEW

A Revolution is UnderwayPeer-to-Peer Distributed Ubiquitous Collective Intelligence Now Possible

Teen-Agers are Center of Gravity

• World War III will be fought in the hearts and minds of teen-agers

• Half the brain—the half that can understand “other” views—dies by the age of 35

• Morality self-directs between the ages of 25 and 35—that’s when the brain matures

• Faith matters—not ideological zealotry, but a belief in the Golden Rule and respect for cultural and religious paths chosen by others over the course of centuries.

Reality Won’t Go Away

• End of cheap oil cascades across everything• End of free water is actually a bigger threat• Rise of pandemic mutating infectious disease

could rebalance populations• Rise of crime and corruption reflects the

failure of all governments, including USA, to adapt to fast-changing real world issues

• Collection popular intelligence is in a race for life, a race that will determine our future.

Peace & Prosperity Can Be Achieved ByChanging When & How We Intervene

• Public warning can change public policy– More Prevention

– More Peacekeeping

– More Education

– More Long-Term Aid

– Less Corruption

– Less Censorship

We have a sacred duty.

Between Google and Wikis, Moral Democracy Possible

Spread the Word

Robert David Steele VivasCEO, OSS.Net, Inc.Coach, Global Intelligence

Partnership (20 companies & rising)

[email protected] speak for sushi.Use MoveOn.Org OSINT

topic to organize everywhere in the world