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Global Statistics Summarizing the Steel Scrap Industry and
Market Drivers
This white paper has been created in conjunction with Metal
Bulletin Research for American Metal Maket Events upcoming 7th
Steel Scrap Conference being held on October 30-31 in Chicago,
IL.
The data and trends examined in this paper and many others, will
be addressed by expert speakers and panellists at the event.
Conference October 30-31, 2013Westin Michigan Avenue Hotel,
Chicago, IL
Steel Scrap
7th
The global meeting point for the ferrous scrap industry
All data supplied by our official Research Partner:
W: www.amm.com/events/scrapE: [email protected] T: +1212 901
38282
Click here to view the brochure
Home
Turkish Steel Production
Global economic outlook
Scrap recovery trends
Scrap reservoir trends
Scrap quality discussion
Scrap quality discussion continued
Top 10 Scrap Exporters 2012
Top 10 Scrap Importers 2012
AMM Steel Scrap Conference
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US Crude Steel
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Conference October 30-31, 2013Westin Michigan Avenue Hotel,
Chicago, IL
Steel Scrap
7th
The global meeting point for the ferrous scrap industry
US crude steel production broadly mirrors the global pattern of
stabilization without major recovery. The shale gas revolution and
gradually increasing domestic demand means US crude steel producers
are experiencing a more optimistic outlook than their European
colleagues. The makeup of the US steel industry, with EAFs in the
majority, makes them more adaptable to slackening and unpredictable
demand than their European counterparts.
US Crude Steel
0
20
40
60
80
100
Cru
de
Ste
el P
rod
uct
ion
(M
to
nn
es)
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
All data supplied by our official Research Partner:
W: www.amm.com/events/scrapE: [email protected] T: +1212 901
38282
Click here to view the brochure
Home
Turkish Steel Production
Global economic outlook
Scrap recovery trends
Scrap reservoir trends
Scrap quality discussion
Scrap quality discussion continued
Top 10 Scrap Exporters 2012
Top 10 Scrap Importers 2012
AMM Steel Scrap Conference
Back Page
US Crude Steel
http://metalbulletin.msgfocus.com/files/amf_euromoney/project_1574/AMM_7th_Steel_Scrap_Conference_Brochure_1-10-2013.pdf
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Source: OECD Economic Outlook 93 database
Source: SRO April 2013
OECD growth projectsChange in real GDP, in per cent
Conference October 30-31, 2013Westin Michigan Avenue Hotel,
Chicago, IL
Steel Scrap
7th
The global meeting point for the ferrous scrap industry
2011 2012 2013 2014United States 1.8 2.2 1.9 2.8Euro area 1.5
-0.5 -0.6 1.1Japan -0.6 2.0 1.6 1.4Total OECD 1.9 1.4 1.2 2.3
Predicted economic growth is relatively strong for the US - as
shown by the below table - which bodes well for the US steel
industry. A regional breakdown of global steel use also paints a
picture of growth for the US and highlights Asias ever growing
importance for global demand of steel and ultimately scrap as
well.
Regional BreakdownMt
2012 2013 2014World 1 412.6 1 453.9 1 500.3NAFTA 131.2 135.0
139.0
United States 96.7 99.3 102.2European Union (27) 140.1 139.5
144.1Central & South America 46.9 49.8 52.0CIS 56.5 57.6
59.8MENA 63.2 65.2 69.9Turkey 28.5 30.6 31.9Asia 920.4 950
976.6
China 646.2 668.8 685.5Other Emerging Asia 60.0 63.6
66.7Developed Economies 389.0 390.5 399.6Emerging & Developing
conomies excl. China 377.4 394.6 415.1
Apparent Steel Use, finished steel
All data supplied by our official Research Partner:
W: www.amm.com/events/scrapE: [email protected] T: +1212 901
38282
Click here to view the brochure
Home
Turkish Steel Production
Global economic outlook
Scrap recovery trends
Scrap reservoir trends
Scrap quality discussion
Scrap quality discussion continued
Top 10 Scrap Exporters 2012
Top 10 Scrap Importers 2012
AMM Steel Scrap Conference
Back Page
US Crude Steel
http://metalbulletin.msgfocus.com/files/amf_euromoney/project_1574/AMM_7th_Steel_Scrap_Conference_Brochure_1-10-2013.pdf
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Conference October 30-31, 2013Westin Michigan Avenue Hotel,
Chicago, IL
Steel Scrap
7th
The global meeting point for the ferrous scrap industry
Scrap recovery map 2011
Scrap recovery map 2021
The below shows how global scrap recovery patterns are predicted
to change over the next few years.
All data supplied by our official Research Partner:
W: www.amm.com/events/scrapE: [email protected] T: +1212 901
38282
Click here to view the brochure
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Turkish Steel Production
Global economic outlook
Scrap recovery trends
Scrap reservoir trends
Scrap quality discussion
Scrap quality discussion continued
Top 10 Scrap Exporters 2012
Top 10 Scrap Importers 2012
AMM Steel Scrap Conference
Back Page
US Crude Steel
0 - 18,75018,751 - 37,50037,501 - 75,00075,001 - 150,000150,001
- 300,000300,001 - 600,000
0 - 18,75018,751 - 37,50037,501 - 75,00075,001 - 150,000150,001
- 300,000300,001 - 600,000
MT
MT
http://metalbulletin.msgfocus.com/files/amf_euromoney/project_1574/AMM_7th_Steel_Scrap_Conference_Brochure_1-10-2013.pdf
-
Conference October 30-31, 2013Westin Michigan Avenue Hotel,
Chicago, IL
Steel Scrap
7th
The global meeting point for the ferrous scrap industry
Scrap reservoir 2011
Interestingly the recovery trends do not mirror the reservoir
trends, suggesting there will be increased competition in some
areas and untapped reservoirs in others.
Scrap reservoir 2021
All data supplied by our official Research Partner:
W: www.amm.com/events/scrapE: [email protected] T: +1212 901
38282
Click here to view the brochure
Home
Turkish Steel Production
Global economic outlook
Scrap recovery trends
Scrap reservoir trends
Scrap quality discussion
Scrap quality discussion continued
Top 10 Scrap Exporters 2012
Top 10 Scrap Importers 2012
AMM Steel Scrap Conference
Back Page
US Crude Steel
0 - 46,87546,876 - 93,75093,751 - 187,50087,501 - 375,000375,001
- 750,000750,001 - 1,500,000
0 - 46,87546,876 - 93,75093,751 - 187,50087,501 - 375,000375,001
- 750,000750,001 - 1,500,000
MT
MT
http://metalbulletin.msgfocus.com/files/amf_euromoney/project_1574/AMM_7th_Steel_Scrap_Conference_Brochure_1-10-2013.pdf
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Conference October 30-31, 2013Westin Michigan Avenue Hotel,
Chicago, IL
Steel Scrap
7th
The global meeting point for the ferrous scrap industry
As the below figure shows, the US comfortably leads the steel
scrap exporters statistics, with the EU and Japan the other major
contributors to the export market. Russia and CIS countries are
reducing their exports significantly, with domestic utilization
rising, it is likely that Russia in particular will no longer be
major steel scrap exporter.
US
A
Jap
an
UK
Ge
rma
ny
Fra
nce
Ru
ssia
Ca
na
da
Au
stra
lia
Ro
ma
nia
So
uth
Afr
ica
0
5
10
15
20
% o
f Glo
ba
lly E
xpo
rte
d F
err
ou
s S
cra
p
Top 10 Scrap Exporters 2012
All data supplied by our official Research Partner:
W: www.amm.com/events/scrapE: [email protected] T: +1212 901
38282
Click here to view the brochure
Home
Turkish Steel Production
Global economic outlook
Scrap recovery trends
Scrap reservoir trends
Scrap quality discussion
Scrap quality discussion continued
Top 10 Scrap Exporters 2012
Top 10 Scrap Importers 2012
AMM Steel Scrap Conference
Back Page
US Crude Steel
http://metalbulletin.msgfocus.com/files/amf_euromoney/project_1574/AMM_7th_Steel_Scrap_Conference_Brochure_1-10-2013.pdf
-
Conference October 30-31, 2013Westin Michigan Avenue Hotel,
Chicago, IL
Steel Scrap
7th
The global meeting point for the ferrous scrap industry
Turkish scrap imports dwarves the ROW and Turkish buying
patterns have a significant effect on steel scrap prices. Relative
to their market defining iron ore consumption and steel production,
China is not a major scrap importer. Chinese crude steelmaking is
still predominantly blast furnace based, reducing the demand for
scrap, it is possible that as the Chinese steel industry develops
it could become a steel scrap exporter.
Top 10 Scrap Importers 2012
Turk
ey
So
uth
Ko
rea
Ind
ia
Ita
ly
Ch
ina
Taiw
an
Sp
ain
Ind
on
esi
a
Ma
lays
ia
Tha
ilan
d
0
5
10
15
20
25
% o
f Glo
ba
lly Im
po
rte
d F
err
ou
s S
cra
p
All data supplied by our official Research Partner:
W: www.amm.com/events/scrapE: [email protected] T: +1212 901
38282
Click here to view the brochure
Home
Turkish Steel Production
Global economic outlook
Scrap recovery trends
Scrap reservoir trends
Scrap quality discussion
Scrap quality discussion continued
Top 10 Scrap Exporters 2012
Top 10 Scrap Importers 2012
AMM Steel Scrap Conference
Back Page
US Crude Steel
http://metalbulletin.msgfocus.com/files/amf_euromoney/project_1574/AMM_7th_Steel_Scrap_Conference_Brochure_1-10-2013.pdf
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Turkey continues to lead the global statistics for imports of
steel scrap, it is therefore not surprising to see the breakdown of
crude steel production showing EAF steel production consistently
contributing over 70% of crude steel production.
The below figure also highlights a continuing upward trend in
crude steel production in Turkey.
Turkish Crude Steel Production Total and EAFs
20
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04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
Turkey Crude Steel Production (M tonnes) Turkey EAF Steel
Production (M tonnes)
% of Crude Steel from EAFs
Cru
de
Ste
el P
rod
uct
ion
(M
to
nn
es)
% o
f Cru
de
Ste
el f
rom
EA
Fs
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Conference October 30-31, 2013Westin Michigan Avenue Hotel,
Chicago, IL
Steel Scrap
7th
The global meeting point for the ferrous scrap industry
All data supplied by our official Research Partner:
W: www.amm.com/events/scrapE: [email protected] T: +1212 901
38282
Click here to view the brochure
Home
Turkish Steel Production
Global economic outlook
Scrap recovery trends
Scrap reservoir trends
Scrap quality discussion
Scrap quality discussion continued
Top 10 Scrap Exporters 2012
Top 10 Scrap Importers 2012
AMM Steel Scrap Conference
Back Page
US Crude Steel
http://metalbulletin.msgfocus.com/files/amf_euromoney/project_1574/AMM_7th_Steel_Scrap_Conference_Brochure_1-10-2013.pdf
-
Conference October 30-31, 2013Westin Michigan Avenue Hotel,
Chicago, IL
Steel Scrap
7th
The global meeting point for the ferrous scrap industry
Scrap quality highlight discussion preview with panellists
Sachin Shivaram, Vice President of Commercial, Severstal North
America and Dan Pflaum, CEO, Gamma Tech
At the upcoming Steel Scrap Conference Dan will present data
that indicates the average copper level in shredded has risen from
approximately 0.21% in 1980 to approximately 0.33% today. With the
rise of EAF-based steelmaking, residuals are not being diluted as
much as they used to be when the BF-BOF route of steelmaking was
the dominant method. In addition, export customers
tend to be less stringent than domestic mills. This shift has
resulted in a general lowering of standards for most scrap
grades.
To ascertain how this is impacting the market, we put the most
pertinent questions to Sachin and Dan to get a preview on the
discussion that will take place on Thursday October 31:
Why do consumers accept this trend and is this why they are
investing in DRI plants?
Sachin: Consumers have been lazy, to put it bluntly. They have
not invested in available scrap inspection technology and they do
not hold their buyers responsible for scrap quality. The investment
in DRI is completely unrelated however; this is motivated by cheap
natural gas, which is supplanting coke as the most efficient way to
reduce iron oxide.
Dan: The significant increase in the use of iron-based raw
materials by the US steel industry during that same time period has
tended to dilute and mask the shift.
What has been the impact of the export market on scrap quality?
If mills want high quality scrap to remain in the US should they
look at valuing quality differently?
Sachin: High quality scrap is not leaving the US, for the most
part. So putting a higher value on scrap is not going to prevent
exports. But valuing higher quality scrap will allow for more
differentiation of quality in the domestic market, which will
ensure that quality scrap goes to the domestic mill that truly
values it.
Sachin Shivaram Dan Pflaum
All data supplied by our official Research Partner:
W: www.amm.com/events/scrapE: [email protected] T: +1212 901
38282
Click here to view the brochure
Home
Turkish Steel Production
Global economic outlook
Scrap recovery trends
Scrap reservoir trends
Scrap quality discussion
Scrap quality discussion continued
Top 10 Scrap Exporters 2012
Top 10 Scrap Importers 2012
AMM Steel Scrap Conference
Back Page
US Crude Steel
http://
http://www.amm.com/EventDetail/5953/7th-Steel-Scrap-Conference.html?LS=%%Content%%http://metalbulletin.msgfocus.com/files/amf_euromoney/project_1574/AMM_7th_Steel_Scrap_Conference_Brochure_1-10-2013.pdf
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Conference October 30-31, 2013Westin Michigan Avenue Hotel,
Chicago, IL
Steel Scrap
7th
The global meeting point for the ferrous scrap industry
Dan: Over the last 30 years the volume of scrap export has
dramatically increased. Many of these export market consumers are
more lenient on the quality and chemistry of the scrap they will
accept. Because scrap is like water, it flows to the path of least
resistance. This shift has resulted in a general lowering of
quality standards for most scrap grades. In many cases, scrap
consumers are faced with either paying more and expecting a better
quality (while relying on visual inspection to characterize the
material) or be willing to accept the commercial quality of the
grade offered.
Is visual inspection the best method?
Sachin: Absolutely not! Visual inspection is an antiquated
system and needs to be replaced by inspection that can get at the
chemistry of the steel.
Dan: The increase in copper levels in shredded has been a
gradual deterioration over the last 30 years. Visual inspection
provides a very limited capability to detect this slow shift during
the last 30 years. Science and technology now exist to very
precisely report the elemental analysis of shredded.
Are mills doing supplier evaluations in order to separate less
capable suppliers?
Sachin: Some mills are doing this, but unless all mills get on
board there will be a significant disadvantage for those who move
first.
Dan: Many mills are doing regression analysis, melt tests and
sampling techniques to determine the quality of the scrap they are
receiving. Mills need to recognize that their furnaces are not the
quality control device of the scrap industry and should require
scrap processors to monitor, control and report the chemistry of
the products they supply consumers. Buyers should accept scrap from
suppliers with best practices and technology; recognize that all
scrap is not created equal and value it based on not its physical
description but its metallurgical value; establish a copper level
that is optimum for their mills product line and demand that scrap
processors provide science and fact-based evidence of meeting this
specification; realize that low-price scrap doesnt always equate to
lowest cost liquid steel and move to a value-based pricing
mechanism.
Hear more about these suggestions and see how viable they may be
for the industry at the conference later this month.
All data supplied by our official Research Partner:
W: www.amm.com/events/scrapE: [email protected] T: +1212 901
38282
Click here to view the brochure
Home
Turkish Steel Production
Global economic outlook
Scrap recovery trends
Scrap reservoir trends
Scrap quality discussion
Scrap quality discussion continued
Top 10 Scrap Exporters 2012
Top 10 Scrap Importers 2012
AMM Steel Scrap Conference
Back Page
US Crude Steel
http://metalbulletin.msgfocus.com/files/amf_euromoney/project_1574/AMM_7th_Steel_Scrap_Conference_Brochure_1-10-2013.pdf
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7th AMM Steel Scrap Conference
This white paper has been created in conjunction with Metal
Bulletin Research for American Metal Maket Events upcoming 7th
Steel Scrap Conference being held on October 30-31 in Chicago,
IL.
With over 200 delegates expected, this is an ideal opportunity
to meet your customers and suppliers in the burgeoning market as
well as hearing from the senior level decision makers at market
leading companies discuss the following:
North American supply and demand dynamics
North American economic health and pricing trends
Scrap industry trends
Trade, risk and reward
Steel and scrap industry highlight discussions
International outlook
And more
For more information, please visit the website at
www.amm.com/events/scrap or view the brochure here
Unless specified, all data is sourced from Metal Bulletin
Research
Conference October 30-31, 2013Westin Michigan Avenue Hotel,
Chicago, IL
Steel Scrap
7th
The global meeting point for the ferrous scrap industry
All data supplied by our official Research Partner:
W: www.amm.com/events/scrapE: [email protected] T: +1212 901
38282
Click here to view the brochure
Home
Turkish Steel Production
Global economic outlook
Scrap recovery trends
Scrap reservoir trends
Scrap quality discussion
Scrap quality discussion continued
Top 10 Scrap Exporters 2012
Top 10 Scrap Importers 2012
AMM Steel Scrap Conference
Back Page
US Crude Steel
http://www.metalbulletinresearch.comhttp://www.amm.com/eventshttp://http://www.amm.com/EventDetail/5953/7th-Steel-Scrap-Conference.html%3FLS%3D%25%25Content%25%25http://metalbulletin.msgfocus.com/files/amf_euromoney/project_1574/AMM_7th_Steel_Scrap_Conference_Brochure_1-10-2013.pdfhttp://www.metalbulletinresearch.comhttp://metalbulletin.msgfocus.com/files/amf_euromoney/project_1574/AMM_7th_Steel_Scrap_Conference_Brochure_1-10-2013.pdf
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Conference October 30-31, 2013Westin Michigan Avenue Hotel,
Chicago, IL
Steel Scrap
7th
The global meeting point for the ferrous scrap industry
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2021
Newfor 2013
All data supplied by our official Research Partner:
W: www.amm.com/events/scrapE: [email protected] T: +1212 901
38282
Click here to view the brochure
Home
Turkish Steel Production
Global economic outlook
Scrap recovery trends
Scrap reservoir trends
Scrap quality discussion
Scrap quality discussion continued
Top 10 Scrap Exporters 2012
Top 10 Scrap Importers 2012
AMM Steel Scrap Conference
Back Page
US Crude Steel
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