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Copyright © 2020 – McEnearney Associates Northern Virginia StatPak - Page 1 Unless otherwise noted, data derived from Bright MLS. “Northern Virginia” is defined as Arlington and Fairfax counties and the cities of Alexandria, Falls Church & Fairfax. NORTHERN VIRGINIA SEPTEMBER 2020 STATPAK McEnearney.com CONTRACTS Contract activity in August 2020 was up 34.9% from August 2019 and was up in five price categories. Through the first eight months of the year, contract activity is down 2.1%. The average number of days on the market for homes receiving contracts was 24 days in August 2020, down from 31 days in August of last year. URGENCY INDEX The Urgency Index, simply the percentage of homes going under contract that were on the market 30 days or less, was up in August compared to last August. During the past 16 years, the Index has been as high as 95% (April 2004) and as low as 23% (November 2006). In August 2020, the Urgency Index was 83.4%, up from 70.9% in August 2019. And that is Northern Virginia’s highest August Urgency Index in the past 12 years. INVENTORY The number of homes on the market at the end of August was down 18.1% compared to the end of August 2019 and was lower in five of the six price categories. However, condo inventory is significantly higher. The number of new listings coming on the market increased 23.3% compared to August of 2019. The drop in inventory combined with the increase in contract activity, lowering overall supply to just 0.9 month from 1.5 months at the end of August 2019. INTEREST RATES 30-year fixed mortgage interest rates at the end of August stood at 2.93%, and that is the lowest month- end rate in history. It is two-thirds of a point lower than this time last year and slightly lower than the end of last month. Global economic conditions will keep rates low for an extended period of time. AFFORDABILITY The payment on a no-money-down, 30-year fixed mortgage for a median-priced home is 17% higher than it was a decade ago in August 2010, but the median price is up 40%. The payment is 1.4% higher than August of last year despite lower interest rates - there was a big spike in the median price. The mortgage payment for a median priced home ($2,483) was higher in August than the median rented price ($2,400). DIRECTION OF THE MARKET Northern Virginia’s real estate market continues its remarkable rebound from the COVID-induced spring slump. Contract activity over the summer looked more like what we typically see in March through April, and the lack of inventory continues to make it challenging for buyers. However, the story in the condo market is quite different than the market for attached and detached homes. Month-end inventory of attached homes was down 35% compared to last August and detached inventory was down 39% – but condo inventory climbed by 70%. Absorption rates – an indication of demand – are still healthy for condos, but are actually down 6% compared to last August, but absorption rates for attached and detached homes have soared. MARKET IN A MINUTE A SUMMARY OF MARKET CONDITIONS FOR AUGUST 2020
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STATPAK SEPTEMBER 2020 NORTHERN VIRGINIA… · MONTHLY SUMMARY AUGUST 2019 vs. AUGUST 2020 August August % NORTHERN VIRGINIA 2019 2020 Change Number of Sales 1,950 2,318 18.9% Fully

Oct 18, 2020

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Page 1: STATPAK SEPTEMBER 2020 NORTHERN VIRGINIA… · MONTHLY SUMMARY AUGUST 2019 vs. AUGUST 2020 August August % NORTHERN VIRGINIA 2019 2020 Change Number of Sales 1,950 2,318 18.9% Fully

Copyright © 2020 – McEnearney Associates Northern Virginia StatPak - Page 1

Unless otherwise noted, data derived from Bright MLS. “Northern Virginia” is defined as Arlington and Fairfax counties and the cities of Alexandria, Falls Church & Fairfax.

NORTHERN VIRGINIA SEPTEMBER 2020 STATPAK

McEnearney.com

CONTRACTS Contract activity in August 2020 was up 34.9% from August 2019 and was up in five price categories. Through the first eight months of the year, contract activity is down 2.1%. The average number of days on the market for homes receiving contracts was 24 days in August 2020, down from 31 days in August of last year. URGENCY INDEX The Urgency Index, simply the percentage of homes going under contract that were on the market 30 days or less, was up in August compared to last August. During the past 16 years, the Index has been as high as 95% (April 2004) and as low as 23% (November 2006). In August 2020, the Urgency Index was 83.4%, up from 70.9% in August 2019. And that is Northern Virginia’s highest August Urgency Index in the past 12 years. INVENTORY The number of homes on the market at the end of August was down 18.1% compared to the end of August 2019 and was lower in five of the six price categories. However, condo inventory is significantly higher. The number of new listings coming on the market increased 23.3% compared to August of 2019. The drop in inventory combined with the increase in contract activity, lowering overall supply to just 0.9 month from 1.5 months at the end of August 2019. INTEREST RATES 30-year fixed mortgage interest rates at the end of August stood at 2.93%, and that is the lowest month-end rate in history. It is two-thirds of a point lower than this time last year and slightly lower than the end of last month. Global economic conditions will keep rates low for an extended period of time. AFFORDABILITY The payment on a no-money-down, 30-year fixed mortgage for a median-priced home is 17% higher than it was a decade ago in August 2010, but the median price is up 40%. The payment is 1.4% higher than August of last year despite lower interest rates - there was a big spike in the median price. The mortgage payment for a median priced home ($2,483) was higher in August than the median rented price ($2,400). DIRECTION OF THE MARKET Northern Virginia’s real estate market continues its remarkable rebound from the COVID-induced spring slump. Contract activity over the summer looked more like what we typically see in March through April, and the lack of inventory continues to make it challenging for buyers. However, the story in the condo market is quite different than the market for attached and detached homes. Month-end inventory of attached homes was down 35% compared to last August and detached inventory was down 39% – but condo inventory climbed by 70%. Absorption rates – an indication of demand – are still healthy for condos, but are actually down 6% compared to last August, but absorption rates for attached and detached homes have soared.

MARKET IN A MINUTE A SUMMARY OF MARKET CONDITIONS FOR AUGUST 2020

Page 2: STATPAK SEPTEMBER 2020 NORTHERN VIRGINIA… · MONTHLY SUMMARY AUGUST 2019 vs. AUGUST 2020 August August % NORTHERN VIRGINIA 2019 2020 Change Number of Sales 1,950 2,318 18.9% Fully

Copyright © 2020 – McEnearney Associates Northern Virginia StatPak - Page 2

MONTHLY SUMMARY AUGUST 2019 vs. AUGUST 2020

August August %NORTHERN VIRGINIA 2019 2020 Change

Number of Sales 1,950 2,318 18.9%Fully Available Inventory on 8/31 2,605 2,134 -18.1%Number of New Listings 2,153 2,654 23.3%Number of New Contracts 1,794 2,421 34.9%Days on Market - New Contracts 31 24 -22.6%Average Sales Price $609,852 $668,882 9.7%Average Seller Subsidy $2,348 $1,661 -29.3%Urgency Index 70.9% 83.4% 17.6%Months' Supply 1.5 0.9 -39.3%

LOUDOUN COUNTYNumber of Sales 639 775 21.3%Fully Available Inventory on 8/31 968 499 -48.5%Number of New Listings 706 831 17.7%Number of New Contracts 581 857 47.5%Days on Market - New Contracts 35 20 -42.9%Average Sales Price $550,204 $612,484 11.3%Average Seller Subsidy $2,814 $2,040 -27.5%Urgency Index 66.4% 86.0% 29.5%Months' Supply 1.7 0.6 -65.1%

WASHINGTON, DCNumber of Sales 782 917 17.3%Fully Available Inventory on 8/31 1,319 1,527 15.8%Number of New Listings 872 1,246 42.9%Number of New Contracts 703 975 38.7%Days on Market - New Contracts 42 32 -23.8%Average Sales Price $712,673 $754,483 5.9%Average Seller Subsidy $2,397 $2,448 2.1%Urgency Index 58.3% 73.6% 26.2%Months' Supply 1.9 1.6 -16.5%

MONTGOMERY COUNTYNumber of Sales 1,213 1,314 8.3%Fully Available Inventory on 8/31 2,105 1,267 -39.8%Number of New Listings 1,268 1,452 14.5%Number of New Contracts 1,113 1,359 22.1%Days on Market - New Contracts 47 28 -40.4%Average Sales Price $581,073 $602,767 3.7%Average Seller Subsidy $3,913 $3,036 -22.4%Urgency Index 55.6% 77.5% 39.4%Months' Supply 1.9 0.9 -50.7%

PRINCE GEORGE'S COUNTYNumber of Sales 924 1,006 8.9%Fully Available Inventory on 8/31 1,728 724 -58.1%Number of New Listings 1,347 1,235 -8.3%Number of New Contracts 1,159 1,247 7.6%Days on Market - New Contracts 40 26 -35.0%Average Sales Price $316,267 $364,877 15.4%Average Seller Subsidy $5,770 $5,006 -13.2%Urgency Index 63.3% 81.1% 28.1%Months' Supply 1.5 0.6 -61.1%

* Note: Percentages depicted in red indicate a negative market trend; black indicates a positive market trend

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Copyright © 2020 – McEnearney Associates Northern Virginia StatPak - Page 3

YEAR-TO-DATE SUMMARY 2019 vs. 2020

Jan-Aug Jan-Aug %NORTHERN VIRGINIA 2019 2020 Change

Number of Closed Sales 14,952 14,134 -5.5%Average Month-End Available Inventory 2,430 1,887 -22.4%Number of New Listings 20,003 19,008 -5.0%Number of New Contracts 16,405 16,053 -2.1%Days on Market - New Contracts 26 24 -6.6%Average Sales Price $612,003 $658,244 7.6%Average Seller Subsidy $2,154 $2,036 -5.5%Average Urgency Index 77.9% 82.1% 5.5%Average Months' Supply 1.2 0.9 -20.7%

LOUDOUN COUNTYNumber of Closed Sales 4,547 4,654 2.4%Average Month-End Available Inventory 919 640 -30.4%Number of New Listings 6,555 6,269 -4.4%Number of New Contracts 5,133 5,386 4.9%Days on Market - New Contracts 30 26 -14.8%Average Sales Price $539,693 $585,224 8.4%Average Seller Subsidy $2,679 $2,492 -7.0%Average Urgency Index 74.5% 81.6% 9.6%Average Months' Supply 1.4 1.0 -33.6%

WASHINGTON, DCNumber of Closed Sales 5,931 5,819 -1.9%Average Month-End Available Inventory 1,365 1,354 -0.8%Number of New Listings 8,909 9,083 2.0%Number of New Contracts 6,850 6,836 -0.2%Days on Market - New Contracts 37 36 -2.1%Average Sales Price $713,697 $743,624 4.2%Average Seller Subsidy $2,358 $2,726 15.6%Average Urgency Index 68.1% 69.6% 2.2%Average Months' Supply 1.6 1.6 0.0%

MONTGOMERY COUNTYNumber of Closed Sales 8,196 8,047 -1.8%Average Month-End Available Inventory 2,030 1,350 -33.5%Number of New Listings 12,136 10,748 -11.4%Number of New Contracts 9,719 9,406 -3.2%Days on Market - New Contracts 41 34 -17.3%Average Sales Price $561,233 $579,304 3.2%Average Seller Subsidy $3,507 $3,502 -0.2%Average Urgency Index 65.3% 72.2% 10.5%Average Months' Supply 1.7 1.1 -31.3%

PRINCE GEORGE'S COUNTYNumber of Closed Sales 6,705 6,446 -3.9%Average Month-End Available Inventory 1,639 1,012 -38.3%Number of New Listings 10,126 8,842 -12.7%Number of New Contracts 9,295 8,632 -7.1%Days on Market - New Contracts 47 36 -23.7%Average Sales Price $313,333 $345,507 10.3%Average Seller Subsidy $5,649 $5,937 5.1%Average Urgency Index 59.4% 69.7% 17.5%Average Months' Supply 1.4 0.9 -33.5%

* Note: Percentages depicted in red indicate a negative market trend; black indicates a positive market trend

Year-to-Date

Page 4: STATPAK SEPTEMBER 2020 NORTHERN VIRGINIA… · MONTHLY SUMMARY AUGUST 2019 vs. AUGUST 2020 August August % NORTHERN VIRGINIA 2019 2020 Change Number of Sales 1,950 2,318 18.9% Fully

Copyright © 2020 – McEnearney Associates Northern Virginia StatPak - Page 4

NORTHERN VIRGINIA – Detail Pages (Fairfax & Arlington Counties, Alexandria, Falls Church and Fairfax Cities)

BUYING POWER • A $1,000 principal and interest

payment supported a loan of $239,327 at the end of August, which is $18,831 more than August 2019, and $55,979 more than August 2009.

• In August 2010, it would have taken a monthly PI payment of $2,118 to purchase a median-priced home – now it takes $2,483, a 17% increase.

• Lower interest rates have helped offset the $170,000 increase (up 40%) in the median price since August 2010.

BUYING POWER Mortgage Amount with $1,000 Payment

AVERAGE PRICES • The average sales price in August

2020 was $668,882, up 9.7% from the August 2019 average price of $609,852.

• The median sales price was $595,000 in August 2020, up 10.2% from the median price in August 2019.

• Remember that these indicators are arithmetic computations only. The spike in August was largely the result of a significant drop in the number of sales of lower-priced homes.

AVERAGE SALES PRICE Northern Virginia – 2012-Current

MORTGAGE RATES • 30-year fixed interest rates at

the end of August averaged 2.93%, compared to 3.58% at the end of August 2019.

• One-year adjustable rate mortgages were 2.93% at the end of August 2020, which is down from 3.31% at the end of August 2019.

30-YEAR FIXED AND 1-YEAR ADJUSTABLE RATES Month-End Mortgage Rates – 2013-Current

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2.50

3.00

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Copyright © 2020 – McEnearney Associates Northern Virginia StatPak - Page 5

URGENCY INDEX – DC Metro Area • The average August Urgency

Index during the past 12 years for all five of the jurisdictions we track is 57.3% – significantly lower than where we are today, which is 80.7% for all five jurisdictions.

• Of the five jurisdictions, Northern Virginia has the second highest urgency index this month. As noted above, it is at its 12-year peak.

URGENCY INDEX DC Metro Area by Jurisdiction Comparison – August 2020

URGENCY INDEX - August • During the past 12 years, the

August Urgency Index has been as high as 83.4% and as low as 49.0%. And we’re at that high mark now.

• The average August Urgency Index in Northern Virginia during the past 12 years is 60.1% – which is significantly lower than where we are today.

• Contract activity is up 34.9% from last August – and the Urgency Index increased from 70.9% to 83.4%.

URGENCY INDEX Northern Virginia – August 2009-2020

URGENCY INDEX – 2016-Current • This chart compares the number

of contracts (green line) to the percent that were on the market 30 days or less (blue bars). At first glance, it might appear that the lower contract activity also means a lower percentage of homes that sell quickly – but that’s not always true.

URGENCY INDEX % of Contracts on the Market for 30 Days or Less

Northern Virginia – 2016-Current

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Copyright © 2020 – McEnearney Associates Northern Virginia StatPak - Page 6

FULLY AVAILABLE LISTINGS • As noted on page 2, the month-

end inventory decreased 18.1% for August 2020 compared to August 2019 – but the number of homes coming on the market increased 23.3%.

• Inventory is down for five price categories.

• 30.6% of all homes on the market have had at least one price reduction since coming on the market. Last August 35.6% of all homes on the market had at least one price reduction.

MONTHS’ SUPPLY • The overall supply of homes on

the market at the end of August was 0.9 months, which decreased 39.3% compared to the end of August 2019.

• Price category supply ranges from a low of 0.5 month for homes priced $500,000-$749,999 and a high of 3.7 months for homes priced $1,500,000 and higher.

FULLY AVAILABLE LISTINGS Northern Virginia – August 31, 2019 vs. August 31, 2020

MONTHS’ SUPPLY Northern Virginia – End of August 2019 vs. End of August 2020

NEW CONTRACT ACTIVITY • The number of new contracts

ratified in August 2020 was up 34.9% from the number of contracts ratified in August 2019 and was up for five price categories.

• As noted on page 3, contract activity year-to-date is down just 2.1%.

• Only 15.4% of all homes going under contract in August 2020 had at least one price reduction before going under contract. Last August it was 23.0%.

NEW CONTRACT ACTIVITY Northern Virginia – August 2019 vs. August 2020 by Price Range

292

578

535

231

106

52

289

648

773

402

187

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0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900

$0 - $299,999

$300,000 - $499,999

$500,000 - $749,999

$750,000 - $999,999

$1,000,000 - $1,499,999

$1,500,000 and higher

# of New Contracts

August 2020

August 2019

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Copyright © 2020 – McEnearney Associates Northern Virginia StatPak - Page 7

RELATIONSHIP OF SALES PRICE TO ORIGINAL PRICE vs. DAYS ON MARKET • As we have noted in this space

for years, initial pricing strategy is critical to sellers’ success.

• Homes settling in August 2020 that received contracts their first week on the market sold, on average, 2.1% above original list price. Those that took 4 months or longer to sell sold for 8.2% below original list price.

SOME DEFINITIONS AND EXPLANATIONS TO AID YOUR UNDERSTANDING OF THE DATA • All data describing “Northern Virginia” include the counties of Arlington and Fairfax, the cities of Alexandria, Fairfax and Falls Church, and the towns of Vienna, Herndon & Clifton • The data shown here are collected, in whole or in part, from the Metropolitan Regional Information System, Inc, and are believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed • “Sales” are transactions that settled during the statistical period; “Under Contracts” are contracts negotiated during the statistical period, but not yet settled • “Available Listings” reflects single-family homes, town homes, new homes and condos on the market at the end of the period in question. • “Months’ Supply” is simply the number of “Fully Available Listings” on the market at the end of the month divided by the number of “Contracts” ratified that month.

NUMBER OF NEW LISTINGS AND CONTRACTS; ACTIVE LISTINGS

Northern Virginia – January 2014-Current

RELATIONSHIP OF SALES PRICE TO ORIGINAL LIST PRICE vs. DAYS ON MARKET

Resale Properties Sold in Northern Virginia – August 2019 vs. August 2020

AVERAGE NUMBER OF DAYS ON THE MARKET – NEW CONTRACTS • The average number of days on

the market for homes receiving contracts in August was down for five price categories.

• Overall, the average number of days on the market for homes receiving contracts in August 2020 was just 24 days, down 22.6% from 31 days in August 2019.

NUMBER OF NEW LISTINGS, CONTRACTS AND ACTIVE LISTINGS • There were 2,654 new listings

that came on the market in August 2020, up 23.3% from the 2,153 in August 2019.

• The lines representing active listings (green), new listings (blue) and new contracts (red) have narrowed since the middle of last year, and now overlap.

AVERAGE NUMBER OF DAYS ON MARKET Northern Virginia – August 2019 vs. August 2020 – New Contracts

26.2

19.7

29.0

44.8

66.3

83.6

18.3

14.0

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41.6

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0 25 50 75 100 125

$0 - $299,999

$300,000 - $499,999

$500,000 - $749,999

$750,000 - $999,999

$1,000,000 - $1,499,999

$1,500,000 and higher

August 2020

August 2019

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Copyright © 2020 – McEnearney Associates Northern Virginia StatPak - Page 8

Analysis by Property Type – Condo/Co-op

CONDO/CO-OP – LISTINGS • The number of new listings for

condos and co-ops coming on the market was up 51.9% compared to August 2019.

• The fully available inventory of condos as of August 31, 2020 was 69.7% more than the same time in 2019.

LISTINGS

CONDO/CO-OP – CONTRACTS • The number of condos and

co-ops receiving ratified contracts increased 28.4% in August 2020 compared to August 2019.

• Year-to-date, contract activity is down 7.4% compared to 2019.

CONTRACTS

CONDO/CO-OP – SETTLEMENTS AND AVERAGE PRICE • The number of condos and

co-ops settling in August 2020 increased 18.3% compared to August 2019. Year-to-date, the number of settlements is down 10.3%.

• The average price was up 16.8% compared to August 2019.

• Year-to-date, the average price is up 8.3%.

SETTLEMENTS

Condo/Co-opListings 2019 2020 % Change 2019 2020 % Change$299,999 and under 284 339 19.4% 182 262 44.0%$300,000 - $499,999 222 380 71.2% 153 278 81.7%$500,000 - $749,999 72 146 102.8% 78 158 102.6%$750,000 - $999,999 10 26 160.0% 22 38 72.7%$1,000,000 - $1,499,999 10 12 20.0% 23 42 82.6%$1,500,000 & higher 3 10 233.3% 21 35 66.7%Grand Total: 601 913 51.9% 479 813 69.7%

New This Month Total Active

Condo/Co-opContracts 2019 2020 % Change 2019 2020 % Change$299,999 and under 285 286 0.4% 2340 1824 -22.1%$300,000 - $499,999 217 319 47.0% 1802 1906 5.8%$500,000 - $749,999 47 101 114.9% 491 561 14.3%$750,000 - $999,999 14 15 7.1% 130 109 -16.2%$1,000,000 - $1,499,999 5 5 0.0% 31 33 6.5%$1,500,000 & higher 2 6 200.0% 18 23 27.8%Grand Total: 570 732 28.4% 4812 4456 -7.4%

New This Month Year-To-Date

Condo/Co-opSettlements 2019 2020 % Change 2019 2020 % Change$299,999 and under 275 255 -7.3% 2038 1524 -25.2%$300,000 - $499,999 238 301 26.5% 1704 1692 -0.7%$500,000 - $749,999 53 107 101.9% 454 523 15.2%$750,000 - $999,999 16 19 18.8% 104 104 0.0%$1,000,000 - $1,499,999 2 4 100.0% 34 31 -8.8%$1,500,000 & higher 1 6 500.0% 10 22 120.0%Grand Total: 585 692 18.3% 4344 3896 -10.3%

Average Sales Price: Aug 2019 Aug 2020 % Change YTD 2019 YTD 2020 % ChangeCondo/Co-op $340,991 $398,178 16.8% $351,552 $380,706 8.3%

New This Month Year-To-Date

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Copyright © 2020 – McEnearney Associates Northern Virginia StatPak - Page 9

Analysis by Property Type – Fee Simple Attached

ATTACHED HOMES – LISTINGS • The number of new listings

coming on the market in August 2020 for fee simple attached homes increased 21.5% from August 2019.

• Fully active inventory at the end of August was down 35.0% compared to the available inventory at the end of August 2019.

LISTINGS

ATTACHED HOMES – CONTRACTS • Contract activity for attached

homes increased 41.9% in August 2020 compared to August 2019.

• Year-to-date, contract activity is up 2.2%.

CONTRACTS

ATTACHED HOMES – SETTLEMENTS AND AVERAGE PRICE • The number of settlements

increased 28.8% in August 2020 compared to August 2019. Year-to-date, the number of settlements decreased 0.8%.

• The average sales price increased 12.5% in August 2020 compared to August 2019.

• The average price year-to-date is up 6.3%.

SETTLEMENTS

Fee Simple AttachedListings 2019 2020 % Change 2019 2020 % Change$299,999 and under 5 2 -60.0% 2 2 0.0%$300,000 - $499,999 304 292 -3.9% 175 90 -48.6%$500,000 - $749,999 181 255 40.9% 198 112 -43.4%$750,000 - $999,999 35 73 108.6% 63 67 6.3%$1,000,000 - $1,499,999 11 27 145.5% 18 24 33.3%$1,500,000 & higher 3 6 100.0% 16 12 -25.0%Grand Total: 539 655 21.5% 472 307 -35.0%

New This Month Total Active

Fee Simple AttachedContracts 2019 2020 % Change 2019 2020 % Change$299,999 and under 6 2 -66.7% 83 28 -66.3%$300,000 - $499,999 271 281 3.7% 2307 1930 -16.3%$500,000 - $749,999 142 259 82.4% 1290 1652 28.1%$750,000 - $999,999 25 74 196.0% 282 398 41.1%$1,000,000 - $1,499,999 9 24 166.7% 114 153 34.2%$1,500,000 & higher 3 7 133.3% 28 35 25.0%Grand Total: 456 647 41.9% 4104 4196 2.2%

New This Month Year-To-Date

Fee Simple AttachedSettlements 2019 2020 % Change 2019 2020 % Change$299,999 and under 9 3 -66.7% 65 29 -55.4%$300,000 - $499,999 274 240 -12.4% 1991 1587 -20.3%$500,000 - $749,999 160 282 76.3% 1263 1586 25.6%$750,000 - $999,999 35 79 125.7% 289 346 19.7%$1,000,000 - $1,499,999 8 18 125.0% 110 137 24.5%$1,500,000 & higher 0 4 - 22 25 13.6%Grand Total: 486 626 28.8% 3740 3710 -0.8%

Average Sales Price: Aug 2019 Aug 2020 % Change YTD 2019 YTD 2020 % ChangeFee Simple Attached $520,025 $585,040 12.5% $539,154 $573,137 6.3%

New This Month Year-To-Date

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Copyright © 2020 – McEnearney Associates Northern Virginia StatPak - Page 10

DETACHED HOMES – CONTRACTS • There was an increase of 35.7%

in the number of contracts on detached homes in August 2020 compared to August 2019.

• There is basically no inventory for would-be purchasers looking to buy for less than $300,000.

• Year-to-date, contract activity is down 1.2%.

CONTRACTS

DETACHED HOMES – SETTLEMENTS AND AVERAGE PRICE • The number of settlements in

August was up 13.8% compared to last August. Year-to-date, the number of settlements has decreased 5.0%.

• The average sales price for detached homes increased 8.4% in August 2020 compared to August 2019.

• The average sales price year-to-date is up 6.8%.

SETTLEMENTS

Analysis by Property Type – Fee Simple Detached

DETACHED HOMES – LISTINGS • The number of new listings for

fee simple detached homes increased 7.2% in August 2020 compared to August 2019.

• The number of detached homes on the market on August 31, 2020 was down 38.7% compared to August 31, 2019.

LISTINGS

Fee Simple DetachedListings 2019 2020 % Change 2019 2020 % Change$299,999 and under 2 0 -100.0% 2 0 -100.0%$300,000 - $499,999 90 39 -56.7% 61 15 -75.4%$500,000 - $749,999 424 396 -6.6% 427 143 -66.5%$750,000 - $999,999 261 328 25.7% 398 189 -52.5%$1,000,000 - $1,499,999 134 192 43.3% 342 262 -23.4%$1,500,000 & higher 102 131 28.4% 424 405 -4.5%Grand Total: 1013 1086 7.2% 1654 1014 -38.7%

Total ActiveNew This Month

Fee Simple DetachedContracts 2019 2020 % Change 2019 2020 % Change$299,999 and under 1 0 -100.0% 5 6 20.0%$300,000 - $499,999 90 49 -45.6% 805 466 -42.1%$500,000 - $749,999 346 413 19.4% 3370 3056 -9.3%$750,000 - $999,999 192 313 63.0% 1923 2193 14.0%$1,000,000 - $1,499,999 92 158 71.7% 947 1100 16.2%$1,500,000 & higher 47 109 131.9% 439 580 32.1%Grand Total: 768 1042 35.7% 7489 7401 -1.2%

New This Month Year-To-Date

Fee Simple DetachedSettlements 2019 2020 % Change 2019 2020 % Change$299,999 and under 0 0 - 15 2 -86.7%$300,000 - $499,999 75 38 -49.3% 661 360 -45.5%$500,000 - $749,999 414 396 -4.3% 3166 2768 -12.6%$750,000 - $999,999 207 312 50.7% 1735 1936 11.6%$1,000,000 - $1,499,999 125 160 28.0% 908 998 9.9%$1,500,000 & higher 58 94 62.1% 383 464 21.1%Grand Total: 879 1000 13.8% 6868 6528 -5.0%

Average Sales Price: Aug 2019 Aug 2020 % Change YTD 2019 YTD 2020 % ChangeFee Simple Detached $838,452 $908,693 8.4% $816,408 $872,251 6.8%

New This Month Year-To-Date

Page 11: STATPAK SEPTEMBER 2020 NORTHERN VIRGINIA… · MONTHLY SUMMARY AUGUST 2019 vs. AUGUST 2020 August August % NORTHERN VIRGINIA 2019 2020 Change Number of Sales 1,950 2,318 18.9% Fully

Copyright © 2020 – McEnearney Associates Northern Virginia StatPak - Page 11

Absorption Rate by Property Type The following tables track absorption rate by property type, comparing the rates in the just-completed month to the rates in the same month of the previous year. The absorption rate is a measure of the health of the market and tracks the percentage of homes that were on the market during the given month and in the given price range that went under contract. [The formula is # Contracts/(# Contracts + # Available).] An example: The absorption rate for detached homes priced $500,000-$749,999 in August 2020 was 74.3%. That compares to a rate of 44.8% in August 2019, and the increase means the market was better in 2020 for that type of home. If the absorption rate was less in 2020 than in 2019, we have put the 2020 rate in red. This month there was improvement for 12 of 17 individual price categories with activity.

ABSORPTION RATES – CONDOS AND CO-OPS • The overall absorption rate for

condos and co-ops for August 2020 was 47.4%, a decrease from the 54.3% rate in August 2019.

ABSORPTION RATES – ATTACHED HOMES • The overall absorption rate for

attached homes in August 2020 was 67.8%, a significant increase from the 49.1% rate in August 2019.

ABSORPTION RATES – DETACHED HOMES • August 2020’s absorption rate

for detached homes was 50.7%, a significant increase from the 31.7% rate in August 2019.

• There were no homes priced less than $300K on the market at the end of the month.

Condo/Co-opAbsorption Rates Listings Contracts Rate Listings Contracts Rate$299,999 and under 182 285 61.0% 262 286 52.2%$300,000 - $499,999 153 217 58.6% 278 319 53.4%$500,000 - $749,999 78 47 37.6% 158 101 39.0%$750,000 - $999,999 22 14 38.9% 38 15 28.3%$1,000,000 - $1,499,999 23 5 17.9% 42 5 10.6%$1,500,000 & higher 21 2 8.7% 35 6 14.6%Grand Total: 479 570 54.3% 813 732 47.4%

August 2019 August 2020

Fee Simple AttachedAbsorption Rates Listings Contracts Rate Listings Contracts Rate$299,999 and under 2 6 75.0% 2 2 50.0%$300,000 - $499,999 175 271 60.8% 90 281 75.7%$500,000 - $749,999 198 142 41.8% 112 259 69.8%$750,000 - $999,999 63 25 28.4% 67 74 52.5%$1,000,000 - $1,499,999 18 9 33.3% 24 24 50.0%$1,500,000 & higher 16 3 15.8% 12 7 36.8%Grand Total: 472 456 49.1% 307 647 67.8%

August 2019 August 2020

Fee Simple DetachedAbsorption Rates Listings Contracts Rate Listings Contracts Rate$299,999 and under 2 1 33.3% 0 0 -$300,000 - $499,999 61 90 59.6% 15 49 76.6%$500,000 - $749,999 427 346 44.8% 143 413 74.3%$750,000 - $999,999 398 192 32.5% 189 313 62.4%$1,000,000 - $1,499,999 342 92 21.2% 262 158 37.6%$1,500,000 & higher 424 47 10.0% 405 109 21.2%Grand Total: 1654 768 31.7% 1014 1042 50.7%

August 2020August 2019