STATPAK SEPTEMBER 2020 NORTHERN VIRGINIA… · MONTHLY SUMMARY AUGUST 2019 vs. AUGUST 2020 August August % NORTHERN VIRGINIA 2019 2020 Change Number of Sales 1,950 2,318 18.9% Fully
This document is posted to help you gain knowledge. Please leave a comment to let me know what you think about it! Share it to your friends and learn new things together.
Unless otherwise noted, data derived from Bright MLS. “Northern Virginia” is defined as Arlington and Fairfax counties and the cities of Alexandria, Falls Church & Fairfax.
NORTHERN VIRGINIA SEPTEMBER 2020 STATPAK
McEnearney.com
CONTRACTS Contract activity in August 2020 was up 34.9% from August 2019 and was up in five price categories. Through the first eight months of the year, contract activity is down 2.1%. The average number of days on the market for homes receiving contracts was 24 days in August 2020, down from 31 days in August of last year. URGENCY INDEX The Urgency Index, simply the percentage of homes going under contract that were on the market 30 days or less, was up in August compared to last August. During the past 16 years, the Index has been as high as 95% (April 2004) and as low as 23% (November 2006). In August 2020, the Urgency Index was 83.4%, up from 70.9% in August 2019. And that is Northern Virginia’s highest August Urgency Index in the past 12 years. INVENTORY The number of homes on the market at the end of August was down 18.1% compared to the end of August 2019 and was lower in five of the six price categories. However, condo inventory is significantly higher. The number of new listings coming on the market increased 23.3% compared to August of 2019. The drop in inventory combined with the increase in contract activity, lowering overall supply to just 0.9 month from 1.5 months at the end of August 2019. INTEREST RATES 30-year fixed mortgage interest rates at the end of August stood at 2.93%, and that is the lowest month-end rate in history. It is two-thirds of a point lower than this time last year and slightly lower than the end of last month. Global economic conditions will keep rates low for an extended period of time. AFFORDABILITY The payment on a no-money-down, 30-year fixed mortgage for a median-priced home is 17% higher than it was a decade ago in August 2010, but the median price is up 40%. The payment is 1.4% higher than August of last year despite lower interest rates - there was a big spike in the median price. The mortgage payment for a median priced home ($2,483) was higher in August than the median rented price ($2,400). DIRECTION OF THE MARKET Northern Virginia’s real estate market continues its remarkable rebound from the COVID-induced spring slump. Contract activity over the summer looked more like what we typically see in March through April, and the lack of inventory continues to make it challenging for buyers. However, the story in the condo market is quite different than the market for attached and detached homes. Month-end inventory of attached homes was down 35% compared to last August and detached inventory was down 39% – but condo inventory climbed by 70%. Absorption rates – an indication of demand – are still healthy for condos, but are actually down 6% compared to last August, but absorption rates for attached and detached homes have soared.
MARKET IN A MINUTE A SUMMARY OF MARKET CONDITIONS FOR AUGUST 2020
Number of Sales 1,950 2,318 18.9%Fully Available Inventory on 8/31 2,605 2,134 -18.1%Number of New Listings 2,153 2,654 23.3%Number of New Contracts 1,794 2,421 34.9%Days on Market - New Contracts 31 24 -22.6%Average Sales Price $609,852 $668,882 9.7%Average Seller Subsidy $2,348 $1,661 -29.3%Urgency Index 70.9% 83.4% 17.6%Months' Supply 1.5 0.9 -39.3%
LOUDOUN COUNTYNumber of Sales 639 775 21.3%Fully Available Inventory on 8/31 968 499 -48.5%Number of New Listings 706 831 17.7%Number of New Contracts 581 857 47.5%Days on Market - New Contracts 35 20 -42.9%Average Sales Price $550,204 $612,484 11.3%Average Seller Subsidy $2,814 $2,040 -27.5%Urgency Index 66.4% 86.0% 29.5%Months' Supply 1.7 0.6 -65.1%
WASHINGTON, DCNumber of Sales 782 917 17.3%Fully Available Inventory on 8/31 1,319 1,527 15.8%Number of New Listings 872 1,246 42.9%Number of New Contracts 703 975 38.7%Days on Market - New Contracts 42 32 -23.8%Average Sales Price $712,673 $754,483 5.9%Average Seller Subsidy $2,397 $2,448 2.1%Urgency Index 58.3% 73.6% 26.2%Months' Supply 1.9 1.6 -16.5%
MONTGOMERY COUNTYNumber of Sales 1,213 1,314 8.3%Fully Available Inventory on 8/31 2,105 1,267 -39.8%Number of New Listings 1,268 1,452 14.5%Number of New Contracts 1,113 1,359 22.1%Days on Market - New Contracts 47 28 -40.4%Average Sales Price $581,073 $602,767 3.7%Average Seller Subsidy $3,913 $3,036 -22.4%Urgency Index 55.6% 77.5% 39.4%Months' Supply 1.9 0.9 -50.7%
PRINCE GEORGE'S COUNTYNumber of Sales 924 1,006 8.9%Fully Available Inventory on 8/31 1,728 724 -58.1%Number of New Listings 1,347 1,235 -8.3%Number of New Contracts 1,159 1,247 7.6%Days on Market - New Contracts 40 26 -35.0%Average Sales Price $316,267 $364,877 15.4%Average Seller Subsidy $5,770 $5,006 -13.2%Urgency Index 63.3% 81.1% 28.1%Months' Supply 1.5 0.6 -61.1%
* Note: Percentages depicted in red indicate a negative market trend; black indicates a positive market trend
NORTHERN VIRGINIA – Detail Pages (Fairfax & Arlington Counties, Alexandria, Falls Church and Fairfax Cities)
BUYING POWER • A $1,000 principal and interest
payment supported a loan of $239,327 at the end of August, which is $18,831 more than August 2019, and $55,979 more than August 2009.
• In August 2010, it would have taken a monthly PI payment of $2,118 to purchase a median-priced home – now it takes $2,483, a 17% increase.
• Lower interest rates have helped offset the $170,000 increase (up 40%) in the median price since August 2010.
BUYING POWER Mortgage Amount with $1,000 Payment
AVERAGE PRICES • The average sales price in August
2020 was $668,882, up 9.7% from the August 2019 average price of $609,852.
• The median sales price was $595,000 in August 2020, up 10.2% from the median price in August 2019.
• Remember that these indicators are arithmetic computations only. The spike in August was largely the result of a significant drop in the number of sales of lower-priced homes.
AVERAGE SALES PRICE Northern Virginia – 2012-Current
MORTGAGE RATES • 30-year fixed interest rates at
the end of August averaged 2.93%, compared to 3.58% at the end of August 2019.
• One-year adjustable rate mortgages were 2.93% at the end of August 2020, which is down from 3.31% at the end of August 2019.
URGENCY INDEX – DC Metro Area • The average August Urgency
Index during the past 12 years for all five of the jurisdictions we track is 57.3% – significantly lower than where we are today, which is 80.7% for all five jurisdictions.
• Of the five jurisdictions, Northern Virginia has the second highest urgency index this month. As noted above, it is at its 12-year peak.
URGENCY INDEX DC Metro Area by Jurisdiction Comparison – August 2020
URGENCY INDEX - August • During the past 12 years, the
August Urgency Index has been as high as 83.4% and as low as 49.0%. And we’re at that high mark now.
• The average August Urgency Index in Northern Virginia during the past 12 years is 60.1% – which is significantly lower than where we are today.
• Contract activity is up 34.9% from last August – and the Urgency Index increased from 70.9% to 83.4%.
URGENCY INDEX Northern Virginia – August 2009-2020
URGENCY INDEX – 2016-Current • This chart compares the number
of contracts (green line) to the percent that were on the market 30 days or less (blue bars). At first glance, it might appear that the lower contract activity also means a lower percentage of homes that sell quickly – but that’s not always true.
URGENCY INDEX % of Contracts on the Market for 30 Days or Less
FULLY AVAILABLE LISTINGS • As noted on page 2, the month-
end inventory decreased 18.1% for August 2020 compared to August 2019 – but the number of homes coming on the market increased 23.3%.
• Inventory is down for five price categories.
• 30.6% of all homes on the market have had at least one price reduction since coming on the market. Last August 35.6% of all homes on the market had at least one price reduction.
MONTHS’ SUPPLY • The overall supply of homes on
the market at the end of August was 0.9 months, which decreased 39.3% compared to the end of August 2019.
• Price category supply ranges from a low of 0.5 month for homes priced $500,000-$749,999 and a high of 3.7 months for homes priced $1,500,000 and higher.
FULLY AVAILABLE LISTINGS Northern Virginia – August 31, 2019 vs. August 31, 2020
MONTHS’ SUPPLY Northern Virginia – End of August 2019 vs. End of August 2020
NEW CONTRACT ACTIVITY • The number of new contracts
ratified in August 2020 was up 34.9% from the number of contracts ratified in August 2019 and was up for five price categories.
• As noted on page 3, contract activity year-to-date is down just 2.1%.
• Only 15.4% of all homes going under contract in August 2020 had at least one price reduction before going under contract. Last August it was 23.0%.
NEW CONTRACT ACTIVITY Northern Virginia – August 2019 vs. August 2020 by Price Range
RELATIONSHIP OF SALES PRICE TO ORIGINAL PRICE vs. DAYS ON MARKET • As we have noted in this space
for years, initial pricing strategy is critical to sellers’ success.
• Homes settling in August 2020 that received contracts their first week on the market sold, on average, 2.1% above original list price. Those that took 4 months or longer to sell sold for 8.2% below original list price.
SOME DEFINITIONS AND EXPLANATIONS TO AID YOUR UNDERSTANDING OF THE DATA • All data describing “Northern Virginia” include the counties of Arlington and Fairfax, the cities of Alexandria, Fairfax and Falls Church, and the towns of Vienna, Herndon & Clifton • The data shown here are collected, in whole or in part, from the Metropolitan Regional Information System, Inc, and are believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed • “Sales” are transactions that settled during the statistical period; “Under Contracts” are contracts negotiated during the statistical period, but not yet settled • “Available Listings” reflects single-family homes, town homes, new homes and condos on the market at the end of the period in question. • “Months’ Supply” is simply the number of “Fully Available Listings” on the market at the end of the month divided by the number of “Contracts” ratified that month.
NUMBER OF NEW LISTINGS AND CONTRACTS; ACTIVE LISTINGS
Northern Virginia – January 2014-Current
RELATIONSHIP OF SALES PRICE TO ORIGINAL LIST PRICE vs. DAYS ON MARKET
Resale Properties Sold in Northern Virginia – August 2019 vs. August 2020
AVERAGE NUMBER OF DAYS ON THE MARKET – NEW CONTRACTS • The average number of days on
the market for homes receiving contracts in August was down for five price categories.
• Overall, the average number of days on the market for homes receiving contracts in August 2020 was just 24 days, down 22.6% from 31 days in August 2019.
NUMBER OF NEW LISTINGS, CONTRACTS AND ACTIVE LISTINGS • There were 2,654 new listings
that came on the market in August 2020, up 23.3% from the 2,153 in August 2019.
• The lines representing active listings (green), new listings (blue) and new contracts (red) have narrowed since the middle of last year, and now overlap.
AVERAGE NUMBER OF DAYS ON MARKET Northern Virginia – August 2019 vs. August 2020 – New Contracts
Absorption Rate by Property Type The following tables track absorption rate by property type, comparing the rates in the just-completed month to the rates in the same month of the previous year. The absorption rate is a measure of the health of the market and tracks the percentage of homes that were on the market during the given month and in the given price range that went under contract. [The formula is # Contracts/(# Contracts + # Available).] An example: The absorption rate for detached homes priced $500,000-$749,999 in August 2020 was 74.3%. That compares to a rate of 44.8% in August 2019, and the increase means the market was better in 2020 for that type of home. If the absorption rate was less in 2020 than in 2019, we have put the 2020 rate in red. This month there was improvement for 12 of 17 individual price categories with activity.
ABSORPTION RATES – CONDOS AND CO-OPS • The overall absorption rate for
condos and co-ops for August 2020 was 47.4%, a decrease from the 54.3% rate in August 2019.
ABSORPTION RATES – ATTACHED HOMES • The overall absorption rate for
attached homes in August 2020 was 67.8%, a significant increase from the 49.1% rate in August 2019.
ABSORPTION RATES – DETACHED HOMES • August 2020’s absorption rate
for detached homes was 50.7%, a significant increase from the 31.7% rate in August 2019.
• There were no homes priced less than $300K on the market at the end of the month.