Statistics of utility-scale solar PV, wind and CSP in · 2018-10-30 · From Jan-Dec 2017, total wind, solar PV and CSP production was 9 TWh, supplying 3.4% of SA’s system load

Dr Tobias Bischof-Niemz Chief Engineer

Statistics of utility-scale solar PV, wind and CSP in South Africa in 2017 CSIR Energy Centre

February 2018

Joanne Calitz [email protected] Jarrad Wright [email protected]

2

Actual load shedding in 2017 7

Hourly electricity production and gradients 6

Daily electricity production 5

Weekly electricity production 4

Monthly electricity production 3

Overview actual electricity production data for 2017 2

Overview and status of REIPPPP 1

Agenda

3








Agenda

4

South Africa’s Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme (REIPPPP) started in 2011

Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) 2010

• Promulgated in 2011, the IRP developed the preferred energy mix with which to meet the forecasted electricity needs over a 20 year horizon

• The plan included 9.2 GW of wind, 8.4 GW of solar PV and 1.2 GW of CSP by 2030

Ministerial Determination

• In May 2011, the Department of Energy (DoE) gazetted the New Generation Regulations under the Electricity Regulation Act (ERA) and made a determination for new energy capacity

• Second determination was made on 18 August 2015

IPPPP

• The IPPPP is a key vehicle for securing electricity capacity from the private sector for renewable and non-renewable energy sources as determined by the Minister of Energy

• The DoE, National Treasury (NT) and the Development Bank of Southern Africa (DBSA) established the IPP Office for the specific purpose of delivering on the IPP procurement objectives

• Since 2011, there have been 5 main Bid Windows (BW 1, 2, 3, 3.5, 4) contributing 6.3 GW total and recently an additional BW 4 Expedited, contributing 1.8 GW

• Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) signed for BW 1,2,3 and 3.5 (1 project)

Sources: https://www.ipp-projects.co.za; http://www.energy.gov.za/files/aboutus/DoE-Annual-Performance-Plan-2017-17.pdf;

https://www.ipp-projects.co.za/




http://www.energy.gov.za/files/aboutus/DoE-Annual-Performance-Plan-2016-17.pdf













5

Overview of South Africa’s REIPPPP

The REIPPPP is designed to contribute to meeting the national renewable energy target while encouraging foreign investment and developing socio-economic and environmentally sustainable growth

• To date, renewable energy projects in South Africa have resulted in 20 000 jobs for South Africans and have attracted R 192.6 billion in investment.

• Furthermore, IPPs have committed a total of R 19.1 billion toward socio-economic development initiatives within the communities in which they operate, thereby positively contributing to livelihoods and income generation

• The main evaluation criterion for the bid selection process is pricing, with a 70% weighting, and a 30% weighting for other factors such as job creation, local content and black economic empowerment

• Prices have dropped over the four bidding phases with average solar PV tariffs decreasing by 83%, wind by 59% and CSP dropping by 43%

• The REIPPPP includes onshore wind, solar PV, CSP, small hydro, biomass, biogas, landfill gas, small hydro and co-generation (from agricultural waste / by-products)

The South African Department of Energy (DoE) has already allocated a total of 8.1 GW of renewables (mainly wind and solar photovoltaic – PV) for procurement from Independent Power Producers (IPPs)

• … of this, 6.3 GW have achieved preferred bidder status

• … of this, 4.0 GW have financially closed and signed the Power Purchase Agreements with Eskom

• … of this, 1 978 MW of wind, 1 474 MW of solar PV and 300 MW of CSP were operational and fed energy into the grid by Dec 2017

Sources: http://www.energy.gov.za/files/aboutus/DoE-Annual-Performance-Plan-2017-17.pdf

6

200450100

BW 4 Expedited

450

BW 4 BW 3.5

200

100

BW 3

200

BW 2

50 50

BW 1

150 150

559649635

676 681

686

BW 4 Expedited

681

BW 4

1 362

BW 3.5 BW 3

787

152

BW 2

559

BW 1

649

627417 430 415

591

318

BW 4 Expedited

591

BW 4

733

BW 3.5 BW 3

435 5

BW 2

417

BW 1

627

Supply Sources

Notes: RSA = Republic of South Africa. Wind excludes Eskom’s Sere wind farm (100 MW). BW = Bid Window. PPA = Power Purchase Agreement. BW 4 includes BW 4 additional. Sources: Eskom; DoE IPP Office; http://www.energy.gov.za/files/renewable-energy-status-report/Market-Overview-and-Current-Levels-of-Renewable-Energy-Deployment-NERSA.pdf

Procured and operational capacity under RSA’s RE IPP Procurement Programme (REIPPPP) in 2017

1360 MW 1474 MW

Capacity operational (1 January 2017)

200 MW 1978 MW 1474 MW 300 MW

627417 430 415

591

318

BW 4 Expedited

591

BW 4

733

BW 3.5 BW 3

435 5

BW 2

417

BW 1

627

770559649 676 681

686

BW 4 Expedited

681

BW 4

1 362

BW 3.5 BW 3

787

BW 2

559

BW 1

649 17

100450

100

BW 4 Expedited

450

BW 4 BW 3.5

200

100

BW 3

200

BW 2

50 50

BW 1

150 150 100

Capacity operational (31 December 2017)

Solar PV operational

Solar PV procured, PPAs signed

Solar PV procured, PPAs not signed yet

Wind operational

Wind procured, PPAs signed

Wind procured, PPAs not signed yet

CSP operational

CSP procured, PPAs signed

CSP procured, PPAs not signed yet

http://www.energy.gov.za/files/renewable-energy-status-report/Market-Overview-and-Current-Levels-of-Renewable-Energy-Deployment-NERSA.pdf

























7

0.650.96

1.23

3.84

0.650.720.92

1.25

1.60

2.13

3.063.28

3.503.74

0

1

2

3

4

5

Mar 2012 Nov 2015 Aug 2014 Aug 2013

2.29

Nov 2011

Solar PV

Wind

CSP

Sources: http://www.energy.gov.za/files/renewable-energy-status-report/Market-Overview-and-Current-Levels-of-Renewable-Energy-Deployment-NERSA.pdf; http://www.saippa.org.za/Portals/24/Documents/2017/Coal%20IPP%20factsheet.pdf; http://www.ee.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/New_Power_Generators_RSA-CSIR-14Oct2017.pdf; StatsSA on CPI; BW = Bid Window; Dates shown are the bid submission dates; CSIR analysis

Actual average tariffs in R/kWh (Apr-2017-R)

Actual tariffs: Reductions in tariff for new wind, solar PV and CSP Results of Department of Energy’s RE IPP Procurement Programme

BW1 BW 4 (Expedited)




























http://www.saippa.org.za/Portals/24/Documents/2016/Coal IPP factsheet.pdf

http://www.saippa.org.za/Portals/24/Documents/2016/Coal IPP factsheet.pdf

http://www.ee.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/New_Power_Generators_RSA-CSIR-14Oct2016.pdf








8

Summary of 2017 statistics: 3.8 % of system load supplied from wind, solar PV & CSP in RSA

In Dec 2017, a total of 2 078 MW wind, 1474 MW of solar PV and 300 MW of CSP capacity were operational

• An additional 618 MW of wind and 100 MW of CSP became operational during 2017

From Jan-Dec 2017, total wind, solar PV and CSP production was 9 TWh, supplying 3.4% of SA’s system load

• Maximum daily total energy from solar PV, wind & CSP combined was 47 GWh, which occurred on 25 Dec 2017

• Wind power achieved a maximum peak power production of 1 708 MW between 18h00-19h00 on 25 Dec 2017

• Solar PV power reached a maximum peak power production of 1 432 MW between 12h00-13h00 on 27 Oct 2017

• CSP power reached a maximum peak power production of 302 MW between 10h00-11h00 on 7 Nov 2017

• Maximum instantaneous power contribution of wind, solar PV & CSP was 12.7% on 25 Dec 2017 between 15h00-16h00

• Maximum instantaneous power contribution of wind alone was 8.0% on 25 Dec 2017 between 18h00-19h00

• Maximum instantaneous power contribution of solar PV alone was 5.7% on 25 Dec 2017 between 13h00-14h00

• Maximum instantaneous power contribution of CSP alone was 1.4% on 25 Dec 2017 between 16h00-17h00

Total monthly wind, solar PV and CSP production from Jan to Dec 2017 varied between 592 GWh and 1036 GWh

• The monthly wind production from Jan to Dec 2017 varied between 318 and 579 GWh

• The monthly solar PV production from Jan to Dec 2017 varied between 211 and 336 GWh

• The monthly CSP production from Jan to Dec 2017 varied between 24 and 120 GWh

Notes: RSA = Republic of South Africa. Sources: CSIR Analysis; Eskom; DoE IPP Office

9

5601 075

1 460

2 078

210

960

965

1 474

1 474

300200257

+520

2018

+718

2020 2019

+1 094

2017

3 852

+1 053

2014 2013

467

2 040

2016

3 134

1 520

2015

CSP

Wind

Solar PV

Supply Sources

Notes: RSA = Republic of South Africa. Solar PV capacity = capacity at point of common coupling. Wind includes Eskom’s Sere wind farm (100 MW). Sources: Eskom; DoE IPP Office

From 1 November 2013 to 31 Dec 2017, 2 078 MW of wind, 1 474 MW of large-scale solar PV and 300 MW of CSP became operational in RSA

Capacity operational in MW

(end of year)

10

2020 2019 2018 2017

9.0

0.7

5.0

3.3

2016

6.9

0.5

3.7

2.6

2015

4.7

2.5

2.2

2014

2.2

1.1

1.1

2013

0.1 0.01 0.05

CSP

Wind

Solar PV

Notes: Wind includes Eskom’s Sere wind farm (100 MW). CSP energy measured from date when more than two CSP plant were commissioned. Sources: Eskom; DoE IPP Office

Annual energy produced in TWh

In 2017, 9.0 TWh of wind, solar PV and CSP energy produced in RSA

Supply Sources

11

Transmission Network

Notes: RSA = Republic of South Africa. Simplified illustration of wind, solar PV and CSP grid connections

Illustration: Calculation of average capacity factor of operational wind, solar PV and CSP in RSA

Rated Capacity Substation

Average Capacity Factor (CF)

P = Contracted Capacity measured at point of common coupling, in kW

CF = 𝐸𝑡𝑛𝑡=1

𝑃𝑡𝑛𝑡=1𝑛

Where: P = Contracted Capacity, in kW E = Energy production, in kWh t = Time period n = Number of time periods

Rated Capacity, C in kW

= 𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝐸𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑔𝑦 𝑖𝑛 𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒 𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑜𝑑 (𝑘𝑊ℎ)

𝐴𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑔𝑒 𝐶𝑎𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑖𝑛 𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒 𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑜𝑑 (𝑘𝑊) DC AC

AC

AC

http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwizuLuTgL_TAhUEaRQKHRnsA4MQjRwIBw&url=http://www.petervis.com/electronics/Transformer_Symbol/Transformer_Symbol.html&psig=AFQjCNEwqfgeV8oXypKjonwEFCTnV5yiqw&ust=1493188868544821

12

25%26%26%26%19%

2019 2020 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013

36%35%32%32%

19%

2017 2018 2016 2019 2015 2014 2013 2020

Wind

Notes: Capacity operational as per actual start of operation (can differ from REIPPP contracted date), CSP - only measured from date when more than two CSP plants commissioned. Wind includes Sere wind farm (100 MW). Sources: Eskom; DoE IPP Office

In 2017, the average annual capacity factor of the solar PV, wind and CSP fleet was 25%, 36% and 32% respectively

Average Capacity Factor

Solar PV

32%31%

2013 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014

CSP

Supply Sources

13








Agenda

14

From Jan-Dec 2017, 226 TWh of net electricity were produced in SA Actuals captured in wholesale market for Jan-Dec 2017 (i.e. without self-consumption of embedded plants)

Notes: “Net Sent Out“ = Total domestic generation (Sent Out) minus pumping load (not shown seperately) Sources: Eskom; Statistics South Africa for imports and exports

Annual electricity

in TWh

Available for distribution

in RSA

Exports

15.2

System Load (domestic and export load)

234.6

Imports

8.6

Net Sent Out

226.0 219.4

15

In 2017, wind, solar PV & CSP supplied 3.8% of total SA system load Actuals captured in wholesale market for Jan-Dec 2017 (i.e. without self-consumption of embedded plants)

Annual electricity

in TWh

System Load (domestic and export load)

234.6

CSP

0.7 (0.3%)

Solar PV

3.3 (1.4%)

Wind

5.0 (2.1%)

Residual Load

225.6

Notes: Wind includes Eskom’s Sere wind farm (100 MW). Sources: Eskom

16

30

20

10

0

5

15

25

35

Power in GW

22 24 14 12 8 6 4 2 0 10 16 18 20

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0 8 6 4 2 0

Power in GW

24 22 20 18 16 14 12 10

Total Generation

Supply Sources

IPPs: Independent Power Producers; pumping load: demand from pumped storage scheme when operated in pumping mode Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis

Illustrative day explaining terminologies used in this presentation Hourly South African supply structure for a random day

System Load

System Load

Residual Load

Residual Load

Wind

Solar PV

Pumping load

CSP

Supply Sources

= domestic generation (Eskom + IPPs) + imported generation – pumping load = domestic customer load without pumping load (also referred to as simply "domestic load”) + export load

= System Load – wind – solar PV - CSP

System Load

Total Generation = domestic generation (Eskom + IPPs) + imported generation

17

25

20

35

30

10

5

0

15

40

Power in GW

24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 13 12 14

Solar PV

CSP

Wind

Residual Load

Supply Sources

Note: Total daily production excludes hyrdo pumping load Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis

Maximum daily wind, solar PV & CSP energy of 47 GWh on 25 Dec ‘17 Actual hourly wind, solar PV & CSP energy production in South Africa on 25 December 2017 (Monday)

Maximum daily wind, solar PV & CSP

production was 47 GWh

2078 MW

1474 MW

Capacity operational

(end of month)

300 MW

18

Maximum daily solar PV energy of 13 GWh achieved on 25 Dec 2017 Actual hourly wind, solar PV & CSP energy production in South Africa on 25 December 2017 (Monday)

20

15

10

5

0

25

40

35

30

24 23

Power in GW

22 21 20 19 18 17 16 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 14 15

Solar PV

CSP

Wind

Residual Load

Supply Sources


Maximum daily solar PV production was 13 GWh

2078 MW

1474 MW


(end of month)

300 MW

19

Maximum daily wind energy of 30 GWh achieved on 7 Jun 2017 Actual hourly wind, solar PV & CSP energy production in South Africa on 7 June 2017 (Friday)

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

40

23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16

Power in GW

14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 24 15

Residual Load

CSP

Solar PV

Wind

Supply Sources


Maximum daily wind production was 30 GWh

1568 MW

1474 MW


(end of month)

200 MW

20

Maximum daily CSP energy of 5 GWh achieved on 12 Dec 2017 Actual hourly wind, solar PV & CSP energy production in South Africa on 12 December 2017 (Tuesday)

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

Power in GW

24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 16

Residual Load

CSP

Wind

Solar PV

Supply Sources


Maximum daily CSP production was 5 GWh

2078 MW

1474 MW


(end of month)

300 MW

21

Lowest combined wind, solar PV & CSP energy = 12 GWh on 11 Apr ‘17 Actual hourly wind, solar PV & CSP energy production in South Africa on 11 April 2017 (Tuesday)

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

Power in GW

24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 16

Residual Load

CSP

Wind

Solar PV

Supply Sources


Lowest daily wind, solar PV & CSP production was

12 GWh

1545 MW

1474 MW


(end of month)

200 MW

22

Lowest solar PV energy production of 4 GWh occurred on 7 Apr 2017 Actual hourly wind, solar PV & CSP energy production in South Africa on 7 April 2017 (Friday)

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

Power in GW

24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 16

Residual Load

CSP

Wind

Solar PV

Supply Sources


Lowest daily solar PV production was 4 GWh

1545 MW

1474 MW


(end of month)

200 MW

23

Lowest wind energy production of 3 GWh occurred on 18 May 2017 Actual hourly wind, solar PV & CSP energy production in South Africa on 18 May 2017 (Thursday)

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0 3 4 5 6 9 10 8 7 12 11 0

Power in GW

13 14 15 16 17 18 1 2 24 23 22 21 20 19

Residual Load

CSP

Wind

Solar PV

Supply Sources


Lowest daily wind production was 2 GWh

1568 MW

1474 MW


(end of month)

200 MW

24

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

Power in GW

24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 16

CSP

Residual Load

Wind

Solar PV

Supply Sources


Maximum peak solar PV production of 1 432 MW between 12h00 - 13h00

1804 MW

1475 MW


(end of month)

Maximum solar PV power output of 1 432 MW occurred on 27 Oct ‘16 Actual hourly wind, solar PV & CSP energy production in South Africa on 27 October 2017 (Friday)

300 MW

25

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17

Power in GW

15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 16

CSP

Wind

Solar PV

Residual Load

Maximum wind power output of 1 708 MW occurred on 25 Dec 2017 Actual hourly wind, solar PV & CSP energy production in South Africa on 25 December 2017 (Monday)

Maximum peak wind production of 1 708 MW between 18h00 - 19h00

Supply Sources


2078 MW

1474 MW


(end of month)

300 MW

26

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

40

23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16

Power in GW

14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 24 15

Residual Load

CSP

Wind

Solar PV

Maximum CSP power output of 302 MW occurred on 7 Nov 2017 Actual hourly wind, solar PV & CSP energy production in South Africa on 7 November 2017 (Tuesday)

Maximum peak CSP production of 302 MW between 10h00 - 11h00

Supply Sources


1804 MW

1474 MW


(end of month)

300 MW

27

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

Power in GW

24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 16

Residual Load

CSP

Wind

Solar PV

Lowest maximum peak solar PV production of 422 MW between 10h00 - 11h00

Supply Sources


1804 MW

1474 MW


(end of month)

Lowest daily peak solar PV power output of 422 MW on 4 Oct 2017 Actual hourly wind and solar PV energy production in South Africa on 4 October 2017 (Wednesday)

300 MW

28








Agenda

29

300300300300300300

3 242

200

1 568

Dec Nov Oct Sep Aug Jul Jun

3 242

200

1 568

1 474

May Apr

3 219

200

1 545

1 474

Mar

3 193

200

1 519

1 474

Feb

3 180

200

1 506

1 474

Jan

3 134

1 460

1 474

3 342

1 568

1 474

3 342 3 342 3 578

1 474

3 852

1 804 1 568

1 474

1 568

3 578

1 474

2 078

1 474 1 474

1 804

1 474

CSP

Wind

Solar PV

Supply Sources

Notes: Capacity operational as per actual start of operation (can differ from REIPPP contracted date), CSP - only measured from date when more than two CSP plants commissioned. Wind includes Sere wind farm (100 MW). Sources: Eskom

In 2017, 618 MW of wind and 100 MW of CSP was added to the grid Total monthly installed capacity of solar PV, wind and CSP in MW in RSA from Jan-Dec 2017

Capacity operational in MW

(end of month)

30

31%30%29%25%25%22%20%21%24%28%24%26%

Jul Jun May Apr Mar Feb Jan Dec Nov Oct Sep Aug

Solar PV

Supply Sources

Notes: Capacity operational as per actual start of operation (can differ from REIPPP contracted date), CSP - only measured from date when more than two CSP plants commissioned. Wind includes Sere wind farm (100 MW). Sources: Eskom

Average monthly capacity factors for solar PV, wind and CSP Average monthly capacity factors of solar PV, wind and CSP in RSA from Jan-Dec 2017

Average Monthly Capacity Factor

1460 MW

1474 MW


(1 Jan)

200 MW

39%38%36%38%38%36%41%27%29%31%37%39%

Dec Nov Oct Sep Aug Jul Jun May Apr Mar Feb Jan Wind

54%47%42%33%34%17%17%25%20%24%21%25%

Dec Nov Oct Sep Aug Jul Jun May Apr Mar Feb Jan

CSP

2078 MW

1474 MW


(31 Dec)

300 MW

31

400

300

200

1,100

1,000

1,300

1,200

0

100

900

800

700

600

500

94

268

428

864

71

767

275 321

914

101

493

320

1,036

120

579

336

Monthly electricity production in GWh

450

695

24

460

211 592

37

320

235

598

29

318

251

689

36

345

308

638

28

372

238

750

37

422

291

692

35

418

239

792

75

442

4.0% 3.9%

4.3%

4.7%

5.4%

3.4% 3.5%

2.9%

3.2% 3.5% 3.5%

3.8%

Monthly electricity production of SA’s wind, solar PV and CSP fleet Actual monthly production from wind, solar PV and CSP plants in South Africa from Jan-Dec 2017

CSP

Wind

Solar PV

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Supply Sources

Note: Wind generation includes Eskom’s 100 MW Sere wind farm. CSP energy only measured from date when more than two CSP plant were commissioned. Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis


(1 Jan)


(31 Dec)

2078 MW

1474 MW

1460 MW

1474 MW

200 MW 300 MW

% of total system load

32

Monthly electricity production wind, solar PV, CSP and residual load Actual monthly electricity production for Jan-Dec 2017 from the different supply sources in South Africa

0

18

8

12

20

10

2

6

22

4

16

14

Monthly electricity production in TWh

19.1 20.2 20.3

19.6 19.2

19.9 20.5

19.9

18.8

18.2

19.9

19.2

18.1

17.4

19.5

18.8

19.9 19.4 19.0

19.4 18.3 19.1 18.5 18.0

Solar PV

Wind

CSP

Residual Load

Notes: Pumping load excluded. Wind generation includes Eskom’s 100 MW Sere wind farm. Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis

2078 MW

1474 MW


(31 Dec)

Supply Sources


(1 Jan)

1460 MW

1474 MW

200 MW 300 MW


33








Agenda

34

5.2%

5.6%

5.3%

4.6%

4.9%

4.3%

5.5%

3.9%

5.2%

4.4% 4.6%

3.6%

4.1%

3.7%

4.0% 3.9%

4.6%

3.9%

3.7% 3.7%

3.3% 3.1%

3.5%

3.1%

3.5%

3.3%

6.2%

3.8%

3.3%

3.1%

2.4%

3.3%

2.6%

2.9% 3.0%

3.6%

3.3% 3.1%

3.3%

3.6%

4.0%

3.2%

3.6%

3.6%

3.4% 3.6%

3.9%

4.2%

3.7% 3.6%

0

360

340

320

300

280

260

240

220

200

180

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

Electricity production in GWh/week

52 49 46 43 40 37 34 31 28 25 22 19 16 13 10 7 4 1

Weekly electricity production of SA’s wind, solar PV and CSP fleet Actual weekly production from large-scale solar PV, wind & CSP plants under the REIPPPP from Jan-Dec 2017

Wind

Solar PV

CSP

• Maximum wind + solar PV + CSP weekly production of 247 GWh in week 51

• Minimum wind + solar PV + CSP weekly production of 112 GWh in week 21

1460 MW

1474 MW


(1 Jan)

2078 MW

1474 MW

Note: Design as per Fraunhofer ISE. Week 1 adjusted/scaled to 7 day week. Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis


(31 Dec)

Supply Sources

200 MW 300 MW

% of total system load

35

Weekly electricity production wind, solar PV, CSP and residual load Actual weekly production: conventional fleet, wind, solar PV & CSP plants under REIPPPP from Jan-Dec 2017

1 000

500

0

5 000

4 500

4 000

3 500

3 000

2 500

2 000

1 500

1

Electricity production in GWh/week

52 49 46 43 40 37 34 31 28 25 22 19 16 13 10 7 4

CSP

Residual Load

Wind

Solar PV

Supply Sources


(31 Dec)

Note: Design as per Fraunhofer ISE. Week 1 adjusted/scaled to 7 day week. Pumping load excluded. Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis


(1 Jan)

1460 MW

1474 MW

2078 MW

1474 MW

200 MW 300 MW

36








Agenda

37

Daily electricity production wind, solar PV & CSP fleet Jan to Dec 2017 Actual daily production from large-scale solar PV, wind and CSP plants under the REIPPPP from Jan-Dec 2017

50

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

45

Electricity production in GWh/day

CSP

Wind

Solar PV

Supply Sources


• Maximum daily production of 46.7 GWh on 25 Dec 2017 (Monday)

• Minimum daily production of 12.4 GWh on 11 Apr 2017 (Tuesday)

Note: Design as per Fraunhofer ISE.Wind includes Eskom‘s Sere wind plant. Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis


(31 Dec)

2078 MW

1474 MW

300 MW

38

On 90% of the days from Jan - Dec 2017, solar PV and wind had a daily energy production of 7 GWh or more Frequency distribution of daily solar PV, wind and CSP electricity production for January - December 2017

Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

GWh/day

Cumulative Frequency

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

GWh/day


Supply Sources


(31 Dec)

2078 MW

1474 MW

300 MW

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0 5 10 15 20 25 30


GWh/day

39

Daily electricity production of between 550-666 GWh in Jan 2017 Actual daily production from all power supply sources in South Africa for January 2017

• Maximum daily production of 666 GWh on 24 Jan 2017 (Tuesday)

• Minimum daily production of 550 GWh on 1 Jan 2017 (Sunday)

500

750

700

650

600

550

200

450

400

350

300

250

0

150

100

50

31 30 29 28 27 26 25 24 23

GWh/day

22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

Residual Load

Wind

Solar PV

CSP

Supply Sources

1460 MW

1474 MW


(end of month)

Note: Design as per Fraunhofer ISE. Daily production excludes pumping load. Wind includes Sere. Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis

200 MW

40

Daily electricity production of between 587-668 GWh in Feb 2017 Actual daily production from all power supply sources in South Africa for February 2017

• Maximum daily production of 668 GWh on 23 Feb 2017 (Thursday)

• Minimum daily production of 587 GWh on 26 Feb 2017 (Sunday)

500

750

700

650

600

550

200

450

400

350

300

250

0

150

100

50

31 30 29 28 27 26 25 24

GWh/day

23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

Residual Load

Wind

Solar PV

CSP

Supply Sources

1506 MW

1474 MW


(end of month)


200 MW

41

Daily electricity production of between 596-664 GWh in Mar 2017 Actual daily production from all power supply sources in South Africa for March 2017

• Maximum daily production of 664 GWh on 8 Mar 2017 (Wednesday)

• Minimum daily production of 596 GWh on 5 Mar 2017 (Sunday)

500

750

700

650

600

550

200

450

400

350

300

250

0

150

100

50

31 30 29 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13

GWh/day

11 10 9 8 7 12 5 4 3 2 1 6

Residual Load

Wind

Solar PV

CSP

Supply Sources

1519 MW

1474 MW


(end of month)


200 MW

42

Daily electricity production of between 564-665 GWh in Apr 2017 Actual daily production from all power supply sources in South Africa for April 2017

• Maximum daily production of 665 GWh on 24 Apr 2017 (Tuesday)

• Minimum daily production of 564 GWh on 16 Apr 2017 (Sunday)

500

750

700

650

600

550

200

450

400

350

300

250

0

150

100

50

31 30 29 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13

GWh/day

11 10 9 8 7 12 5 4 3 2 1 6

Residual Load

Wind

Solar PV

CSP

Supply Sources

1545 MW

1474 MW


(end of month)


200 MW

43

Daily electricity production of between 587-696 GWh in May 2017 Actual daily production from all power supply sources in South Africa for May 2017

• Maximum daily production of 696 GWh on 30 May 2017 (Tuesday)

• Minimum daily production of 587 GWh on 1 May 2017 (Sunday)

500

750

700

650

600

550

200

450

400

350

300

250

0

150

100

50

31 30 29 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13

GWh/day

11 10 9 8 7 12 5 4 3 2 1 6

Residual Load

Wind

Solar PV

CSP

Supply Sources

1568 MW

1474 MW


(end of month)


200 MW

44

Daily electricity production of between 619-690 GWh in Jun 2017 Actual daily production from all power supply sources in South Africa for June 2017

• Maximum daily production of 690 GWh on 9 Jun 2017 (Friday)

• Minimum daily production of 619 GWh on 4 Jun 2017 (Sunday)

500

750

700

650

600

550

200

450

400

350

300

250

0

150

100

50

31 30 29 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13

GWh/day

11 10 9 8 7 12 5 4 3 2 1 6

Residual Load

Wind

Solar PV

CSP

Supply Sources

1568 MW

1474 MW


(end of month)


200 MW

45

Daily electricity production of between 607-682 GWh in Jul 2017 Actual daily production from all power supply sources in South Africa for July 2017

• Maximum daily production of 682 GWh on 18 Jul 2017 (Tuesday)

• Minimum daily production of 607 GWh on 2 Jul 2017 (Sunday)

500

750

700

650

600

550

200

450

400

350

300

250

0

150

100

50

31 30 29 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13

GWh/day

11 10 9 8 7 12 5 4 3 2 1 6

Residual Load

Wind

Solar PV

CSP

Supply Sources

1568 MW

1474 MW


(end of month)


300 MW

46

Daily electricity production of between 601-685 GWh in Aug 2017 Actual daily production from all power supply sources in South Africa for August 2017

• Maximum daily production of 685 GWh on 18 Aug 2017 (Friday)

• Minimum daily production of 601 GWh on 13 Aug 2017 (Sunday)

500

750

700

650

600

550

200

450

400

350

300

250

0

150

100

50

31 30 29 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13

GWh/day

11 10 9 8 7 12 5 4 3 2 1 6

Residual Load

Wind

Solar PV

CSP

Supply Sources

1568 MW

1474 MW


(end of month)


300 MW

47

Daily electricity production of between 596-669 GWh in Sep 2017 Actual daily production from all power supply sources in South Africa for September 2017

• Maximum daily production of 669 GWh on 28 Sep 2017 (Thursday)

• Minimum daily production of 596 GWh on 3 Sep 2017 (Sunday)

500

750

700

650

600

550

200

450

400

350

300

250

0

150

100

50

31 30 29 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13

GWh/day

11 10 9 8 7 12 5 4 3 2 1 6

Residual Load

Wind

Solar PV

CSP

Supply Sources

1568 MW

1474 MW


(end of month)


300 MW

48

Daily electricity production of between 596-675 GWh in Oct 2017 Actual daily production from all power supply sources in South Africa for October 2017

• Maximum daily production of 675 GWh on 5 Oct 2017 (Thursday)

• Minimum daily production of 596 GWh on 1 Oct 2017 (Sunday)

500

750

700

650

600

550

200

450

400

350

300

250

0

150

100

50

31 30 29 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13

GWh/day

11 10 9 8 7 12 5 4 3 2 1 6

Residual Load

Wind

Solar PV

CSP

Supply Sources

1804 MW

1474 MW


(end of month)


300 MW

49

Daily electricity production of between 601-665 GWh in Nov 2017 Actual daily production from all power supply sources in South Africa for November 2017

• Maximum daily production of 665 GWh on 23 Nov 2017 (Thursday)

• Minimum daily production of 601 GWh on 19 Nov 2017 (Sunday)

500

750

700

650

600

550

200

450

400

350

300

250

0

150

100

50

31 30 29 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13

GWh/day

11 10 9 8 7 12 5 4 3 2 1 6

Residual Load

Wind

Solar PV

CSP

Supply Sources

2078 MW

1474 MW


(end of month)


300 MW

50

Daily electricity production of between 536-668 GWh in Dec 2017 Actual daily production from all power supply sources in South Africa for December 2017

• Maximum daily production of 669 GWh on 5 Dec 2017 (Tuesday)

• Minimum daily production of 536 GWh on 25 Dec 2017 (Monday)

500

750

700

650

600

550

200

450

400

350

300

250

0

150

100

50

31 30 29 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13

GWh/day

11 10 9 8 7 12 5 4 3 2 1 6

Residual Load

Wind

Solar PV

CSP

Supply Sources

2078 MW

1474 MW


(end of month)


300 MW

51

Daily solar PV, wind & CSP contribution of 2.5-5.4% in Jan 2017 Actual daily relative solar PV/wind/CSP contribution as % of total supply in RSA for January 2017

• Maximum daily relative solar PV contribution of 1.9% on 28 Jan 2017 (Saturday)

• Maximum daily relative wind contribution of 3.1% on 28 Jan 2017 (Saturday)

• Maximum daily relative CSP contribution of 0.3% on 29 Jan 2017 (Monday)

0.3%0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

31

3.3%

1.3%

1.7%

30

3.7%

0.2%

1.8%

1.7%

29

3.4%

0.3%

1.1%

1.9%

28

5.4%

0.3%

3.1%

1.9%

27

4.1%

0.3%

2.2%

1.6%

26

3.6%

0.3%

1.7%

1.7%

25

4.5%

0.3%

2.4%

1.8%

24

3.8%

0.1%

2.6%

1.1%

23

2.5%

0.1%

1.3%

1.2%

22

3.3%

0.2%

1.5%

1.6%

21

3.9%

0.3%

1.8%

1.8%

20

4.2%

0.2%

2.2%

1.7%

19

4.6%

0.1%

2.9%

1.6%

18

4.0%

0.2%

2.1%

1.7%

17

4.7%

0.3%

2.7%

1.7%

16

4.9%

0.3%

2.9%

1.8%

15

4.6%

0.3%

2.6%

1.8%

14

3.2%

0.2%

1.2%

1.8%

13

3.2%

0.2%

1.6%

1.3%

12

4.2%

0.1%

2.8%

1.3%

11

3.4%

0.1%

2.4%

0.9%

10

3.6%

0.1%

2.4%

1.2%

9

4.0%

0.2%

2.5%

1.4%

8

3.6%

0.2%

1.6%

1.8%

7

3.6%

0.2%

1.9%

1.6%

6

3.4%

0.1%

2.1%

1.2%

5

3.7%

0.1%

3.0%

0.7%

4

3.2%

0.1%

2.2%

0.9%

3

4.0%

0.1%

3.0%

1.0%

2

3.9%

2.6%

1.3%

1

3.7%

0.2%

1.8%

1.8%

Relative daily contribution

0.0%

Supply Sources


1460 MW

1474 MW


(end of month)

CSP

Wind

Solar PV

200 MW

52

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

0.0%


31 30 29 28

3.8%

0.2%

2.1%

1.5%

27

3.1%

0.3%

1.3%

1.6%

26

3.9%

0.3%

1.8%

1.8%

25

5.2%

0.2%

3.4%

1.6%

24

2.8%

0.2%

1.4%

1.3%

23

3.1%

0.1%

1.8%

1.2%

22

3.8%

0.1%

2.3%

1.3%

21

3.4%

2.3%

1.1%

20

3.2%

2.5%

0.8%

19

3.2%

2.5%

0.7%

18

5.3%

0.1%

3.8%

1.4%

17

2.9%

0.1%

1.3%

1.5%

16

3.6%

0.1%

2.3%

1.3%

15

3.0%

0.1%

1.7%

1.1%

14

3.8%

0.2%

2.3%

1.3%

13

3.5%

0.2%

1.7%

1.6%

12

4.2%

0.3%

2.3%

1.6%

11

3.8%

0.1%

2.5%

1.3%

10

2.9%

0.2%

1.6%

1.1%

9

2.9%

0.2%

1.3%

1.5%

8

3.4%

0.2%

1.7%

1.5%

7

3.5%

0.2%

2.0%

1.4%

6

3.1%

0.2%

1.7%

1.2%

5

3.8%

0.2%

2.1%

1.6%

4

4.0%

0.1%

2.8%

1.1%

3

3.1%

0.1%

2.1%

0.9%

2

3.9%

0.2%

2.4%

1.3%

1

3.3%

0.2%

1.4%

1.7%

0.0% 0.0%

Supply Sources


1506 MW

1474 MW


(end of month)

CSP

Wind

Solar PV

Daily solar PV, wind & CSP contribution of 2.8-5.3% in Feb 2017 Actual daily relative solar PV/wind/CSP contribution as % of total supply in RSA for February 2017

• Maximum daily relative solar PV contribution of 1.8% on 26 Feb 2017 (Sunday)

• Maximum daily relative wind contribution of 3.8% on 18 Feb 2017 (Saturday)

• Maximum daily relative CSP contribution of 0.3% on 12 Feb 2017 (Sunday)

200 MW

53

Daily solar PV, wind & CSP contribution of 2.4-4.8% in Mar 2017 Actual daily relative solar PV/wind/CSP contribution as % of total supply in RSA for March 2017

• Maximum daily relative solar PV contribution of 1.8% on 5 Mar 2017 (Sunday)

• Maximum daily relative wind contribution of 3.0% on 24 Mar 2017 (Friday)

• Maximum daily relative CSP contribution of 0.3% on 12 Mar 2017 (Sunday)

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%


31

3.0%

0.2%

1.5%

1.4%

30

3.1%

0.2%

1.4%

1.5%

29

3.0%

0.2%

1.1%

1.6%

28

3.6%

0.2%

1.8%

1.6%

27

3.1%

0.2%

1.2%

1.7%

26

3.2%

0.3%

1.2%

1.7%

25

3.8%

0.2%

1.7%

1.8%

24

4.7%

0.2%

3.0%

1.4%

23

3.4%

0.1%

2.1%

1.1%

22

2.6%

0.2%

1.0%

1.4%

21

2.6%

0.2%

0.8%

1.6%

20

3.3%

0.1%

1.6%

1.5%

19

4.3%

0.1%

2.5%

1.7%

18

4.3%

0.1%

2.7%

1.5%

17

3.4%

0.2%

1.5%

1.7%

16

2.4%

0.2%

0.5%

1.7%

15

3.9%

0.1%

2.2%

1.5%

14

3.8%

0.2%

2.0%

1.6%

13

3.0%

0.2%

1.4%

1.4%

12

4.6%

0.3%

2.6%

1.8%

11

4.8%

0.2%

2.8%

1.8%

10

4.7%

0.2%

2.8%

1.7%

9

4.4%

0.2%

2.6%

1.6%

8

3.6%

0.2%

2.0%

1.4%

7

3.0%

0.2%

1.2%

1.6%

6

2.8%

0.2%

0.9%

1.6%

5

3.2%

0.1%

1.3%

1.8%

4

2.8%

0.2%

1.0%

1.6%

3

3.3%

0.2%

1.9%

1.2%

2

3.2%

0.2%

1.7%

1.3%

1

3.3%

0.2%

1.7%

1.4%

Supply Sources


1519 MW

1474 MW


(end of month)

CSP

Wind

Solar PV

200 MW

54

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%


31 30

2.9%

0.1%

1.6%

1.3%

29

3.3%

0.1%

1.9%

1.4%

28

2.6%

0.2%

1.0%

1.4%

27

3.1%

0.1%

1.7%

1.2%

26

2.2%

0.0%

1.3%

0.9%

25

2.8%

0.2%

1.3%

1.3%

24

3.3%

0.2%

1.8%

1.3%

23

2.8%

0.1%

1.5%

1.2%

22

2.7%

0.2%

1.0%

1.5%

21

2.9%

0.2%

1.2%

1.5%

20

3.1%

0.2%

1.4%

1.5%

19

3.1%

0.3%

1.3%

1.5%

18

3.2%

0.3%

1.3%

1.6%

17

3.5%

0.3%

1.5%

1.7%

16

3.9%

0.3%

1.8%

1.8%

15

4.3%

0.3%

2.2%

1.9%

14

5.3%

0.3%

3.4%

1.7%

13

4.5%

0.2%

3.3%

1.1%

12

3.2%

0.1%

1.7%

1.4%

11

1.9%

0.2%

0.8%

1.0%

10

2.3%

0.1%

1.4%

0.8%

9

3.1%

0.1%

1.7%

1.3%

8

3.0%

0.0%

2.0%

0.9%

7

2.7%

0.0%

2.1%

0.6%

6

4.3%

0.2%

2.9%

1.2%

5

3.7%

0.2%

2.2%

1.4%

4

3.4%

0.1%

2.0%

1.4%

3

2.7%

0.1%

1.1%

1.5%

2

3.3%

0.1%

1.5%

1.6%

1

2.9%

0.1%

1.2%

1.5%

Supply Sources


1545 MW

1474 MW


(end of month)

CSP

Wind

Solar PV

Daily solar PV, wind & CSP contribution of 1.9-5.3% in Apr 2017 Actual daily relative solar PV/wind/CSP contribution as % of total supply in RSA for April 2017

• Maximum daily relative solar PV contribution of 1.8% on 15 Apr 2017 (Saturday)

• Maximum daily relative wind contribution of 3.4% on 14 Apr 2017 (Friday)

• Maximum daily relative CSP contribution of 0.3% on 16 Apr 2017 (Sunday)

200 MW

55

Daily solar PV, wind & CSP contribution of 1.8-4.3% in May 2017 Actual daily relative solar PV/wind/CSP contribution as % of total supply in RSA for May 2017

• Maximum daily relative solar PV contribution of 1.3% on 28 May 2017 (Sunday)

• Maximum daily relative wind contribution of 3.1% on 11 May 2017 (Thursday)

• Maximum daily relative CSP contribution of 0.3% on 21 May 2017 (Sunday)

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%


31

3.5%

0.2%

2.2%

1.1%

30

3.4%

0.2%

2.1%

1.1%

29

2.5%

0.2%

1.2%

1.1%

28

3.7%

0.2%

2.2%

1.3%

27

3.5%

0.2%

2.2%

1.2%

26

2.6%

0.1%

1.3%

1.1%

25

1.8%

0.2%

0.6%

1.1%

24

4.3%

0.2%

2.9%

1.2%

23

3.5%

0.2%

2.1%

1.2%

22

2.4%

0.2%

1.0%

1.2%

21

2.2%

0.3%

0.6%

1.3%

20

2.3%

0.3%

0.8%

1.3%

19

2.1%

0.2%

0.6%

1.2%

18

1.9%

0.2%

0.5%

1.2%

17

2.9%

0.2%

1.4%

1.2%

16

2.2%

0.2%

0.7%

1.2%

15

3.2%

0.2%

1.7%

1.3%

14

3.6%

0.2%

2.2%

1.2%

13

3.6%

0.2%

2.3%

1.1%

12

3.7%

0.1%

2.4%

1.2%

11

4.3%

0.2%

3.1%

1.0%

10

2.6%

0.1%

1.7%

0.9%

9

2.9%

0.1%

1.8%

0.9%

8

2.4%

0.1%

1.5%

0.8%

7

2.9%

0.2%

1.5%

1.2%

6

2.4%

0.1%

1.2%

1.1%

5

2.5%

0.1%

1.3%

1.1%

4

2.4%

0.2%

1.0%

1.2%

3

2.6%

0.2%

1.2%

1.2%

2

2.3%

0.2%

1.0%

1.1%

1

3.3%

0.1%

1.9%

1.3%

Supply Sources


1568 MW

1474 MW


(end of month)

CSP

Wind

Solar PV

200 MW

56

Daily solar PV, wind & CSP contribution of 2.1-5.6% in Jun 2017 Actual daily relative solar PV/wind/CSP contribution as % of total supply in RSA for June 2017

• Maximum daily relative solar PV contribution of 1.3% on 16 Jun 2017 (Friday)

• Maximum daily relative wind contribution of 4.5% on 7 Jun 2017 (Wednesday)

• Maximum daily relative CSP contribution of 0.2% on 4 Jun 2017 (Sunday)

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

31 30

3.0%

0.1%

2.2%

0.7%

29

3.2%

0.2%

1.9%

1.1%

28

3.6%

0.1%

2.8%

0.8%

27

3.5%

0.0%

3.0%

0.6%

26

2.5%

0.1%

1.3%

1.1%

25

2.9%

0.1%

1.5%

1.2%

24

2.8%

0.2%

1.4%

1.2%

23

3.1%

0.2%

1.7%

1.2%

22

5.1%

0.2%

3.9%

1.1%

21

3.1%

0.2%

1.8%

1.1%

20

3.3%

2.1%

1.1%

19

4.4%

0.1%

3.6%

0.8%

18

2.7%

0.1%

1.6%

1.1%

17

4.5%

0.2%

3.2%

1.2%

16

3.5%

0.2%

2.0%

1.3%

15

3.9%

0.1%

2.6%

1.2%

14

2.2%

0.1%

1.0%

1.1%

13

3.0%

0.1%

1.8%

1.1%

12

3.4%

2.4%

1.0%

11

3.2%

0.1%

2.0%

1.0%

10

4.1%

0.0%

3.4%

0.7%

9

3.3%

0.1%

2.1%

1.1%

8

4.1%

0.1%

3.0%

1.0%

7

5.6%

0.1%

4.5%

1.0%

6

4.2%

0.1%

2.9%

1.1%

5

2.5%

1.1%

1.2%

4

4.4%

0.2%

2.9%

1.2%

3

5.4%

0.2%

4.0%

1.2%

2

2.1%

0.2%

0.7%

1.2%

1

2.3%

0.2%

1.0%

1.2%

0.2%


0.1% 0.1%

Supply Sources


1568 MW

1474 MW


(end of month)

CSP

Wind

Solar PV

200 MW

57

Daily solar PV, wind & CSP contribution of 2.0-4.9% in Jul 2017 Actual daily relative solar PV/wind/CSP contribution as % of total supply in RSA for July 2017

• Maximum daily relative solar PV contribution of 1.4% on 23 Jul 2017 (Sunday)

• Maximum daily relative wind contribution of 3.6% on 9 Jul 2017 (Sunday)

• Maximum daily relative CSP contribution of 0.3% on 30 Jul 2017 (Sunday)

0.1%0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%


31 30

3.9%

0.3%

2.2%

1.4%

29

4.1%

0.3%

2.5%

1.3%

28

4.1%

0.3%

2.6%

1.2%

27

2.6%

0.3%

1.1%

1.3%

26

2.4%

0.2%

0.9%

1.3%

25

4.9%

0.2%

3.5%

1.2%

24

3.7%

0.3%

2.1%

1.3%

23

2.3%

0.2%

0.7%

1.4%

22

3.1%

0.3%

1.5%

1.3%

21

3.0%

0.1%

1.7%

1.2%

20

4.0%

0.1%

2.7%

1.2%

19

3.3%

0.1%

2.0%

1.2%

18

4.0%

0.1%

2.7%

1.2%

17

3.5%

0.1%

2.2%

1.2%

16

4.6%

0.1%

3.5%

1.0%

15

4.4%

0.3%

2.9%

1.2%

14

2.0%

0.2%

1.1%

0.7%

13

2.9%

0.2%

1.5%

1.2%

12

2.3%

0.1%

1.1%

1.1%

11

2.9%

0.2%

1.5%

1.2%

10

3.0%

0.1%

1.6%

1.2%

9

4.9%

0.2%

3.7%

1.1%

8

4.0%

0.1%

2.9%

1.0%

7

2.9%

0.2%

1.7%

1.1%

6

3.8%

0.2%

2.5%

1.2%

5

3.6%

0.2%

2.3%

1.1%

4

2.5%

0.2%

1.2%

1.1%

3

2.6%

0.2%

1.3%

1.2%

2

3.5%

0.2%

2.2%

1.1%

1

2.2%

0.2%

0.9%

1.1%

4.8%

3.5%

1.2%

Supply Sources


1568 MW

1474 MW


(end of month)

CSP

Wind

Solar PV

300 MW

58

Daily solar PV, wind & CSP contribution of 2.8-5.5% in Aug 2017 Actual daily relative solar PV/wind/CSP contribution as % of total supply in RSA for August 2017

• Maximum daily relative solar PV contribution of 1.6% on 27 Aug 2017 (Sunday)

• Maximum daily relative wind contribution of 3.9% on 22 Aug 2017 (Tuesday)

• Maximum daily relative CSP contribution of 0.5% on 27 Aug 2017 (Sunday)

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%


31

4.0%

0.4%

2.0%

1.5%

30

3.4%

0.5%

1.3%

1.5%

29

4.4%

0.4%

2.8%

1.2%

28

4.3%

0.4%

2.5%

1.4%

27

4.4%

0.5%

2.3%

1.6%

26

2.9%

0.4%

1.0%

1.5%

25

4.2%

0.4%

2.3%

1.5%

24

4.9%

0.4%

3.1%

1.4%

23

5.2%

0.4%

3.4%

1.3%

22

5.5%

0.3%

3.9%

1.4%

21

5.1%

0.4%

3.4%

1.4%

20

4.3%

0.3%

2.5%

1.5%

19

4.6%

0.3%

2.9%

1.4%

18

3.3%

0.3%

1.6%

1.4%

17

4.2%

0.4%

2.5%

1.3%

16

3.4%

0.1%

2.1%

1.2%

15

4.5%

0.5%

2.7%

1.3%

14

3.2%

0.5%

1.3%

1.4%

13

3.7%

0.5%

1.6%

1.6%

12

3.4%

0.4%

1.6%

1.5%

11

4.9%

0.4%

3.2%

1.3%

10

4.4%

0.4%

2.6%

1.4%

9

3.5%

0.5%

1.6%

1.4%

8

3.1%

0.4%

1.3%

1.4%

7

2.8%

0.4%

1.0%

1.4%

6

3.6%

0.5%

1.6%

1.5%

5

3.4%

0.4%

1.6%

1.4%

4

3.2%

0.3%

2.0%

1.0%

3

2.9%

0.2%

1.4%

1.3%

2

3.0%

0.2%

1.7%

1.1%

1

4.5%

0.2%

3.4%

0.9%

Supply Sources


1568 MW

1474 MW


(end of month)

CSP

Wind

Solar PV

300 MW

59

Daily solar PV, wind & CSP contribution of 2.5-5.4% in Sep 2017 Actual daily relative solar PV/wind/CSP contribution as % of total supply in RSA for September 2017

• Maximum daily relative solar PV contribution of 1.7% on 17 Sep 2017 (Sunday)

• Maximum daily relative wind contribution of 3.7% on 5 Sep 2017 (Tuesday)

• Maximum daily relative CSP contribution of 0.6% on 18 Sep 2017 (Monday)

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%


31 30

3.9%

0.5%

1.9%

1.5%

29

4.4%

0.5%

2.7%

1.2%

28

4.0%

0.3%

2.4%

1.3%

27

4.4%

0.5%

2.4%

1.6%

26

4.8%

0.5%

2.6%

1.7%

25

4.4%

0.3%

3.4%

0.7%

24

4.1%

0.3%

2.5%

1.3%

23

5.4%

0.5%

3.2%

1.7%

22

4.3%

0.1%

3.2%

1.0%

21

3.7%

0.1%

2.4%

1.2%

20

4.1%

0.3%

2.5%

1.4%

19

4.2%

0.4%

2.4%

1.5%

18

3.1%

0.6%

1.0%

1.5%

17

5.4%

0.5%

3.1%

1.7%

16

5.0%

0.5%

3.0%

1.5%

15

3.1%

0.1%

2.0%

1.1%

14

3.1%

0.4%

1.4%

1.3%

13

4.2%

0.4%

2.4%

1.4%

12

2.5%

0.2%

1.1%

1.2%

11

3.1%

0.3%

1.5%

1.3%

10

3.7%

0.4%

1.8%

1.5%

9

3.2%

0.3%

1.5%

1.4%

8

3.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

7

4.8%

0.5%

2.9%

1.4%

6

2.9%

0.4%

1.2%

1.3%

5

5.3%

0.2%

3.7%

1.4%

4

5.3%

0.3%

3.5%

1.5%

3

3.7%

0.5%

1.5%

1.7%

2

3.6%

0.5%

1.4%

1.7%

1

3.9%

0.5%

1.8%

1.6%

Supply Sources


1568 MW

1474 MW


(end of month)

CSP

Wind

Solar PV

300 MW

60

Daily solar PV, wind & CSP contribution of 2.5-6.0% in Oct 2017 Actual daily relative solar PV/wind/CSP contribution as % of total supply in RSA for October 2017

• Maximum daily relative solar PV contribution of 1.9% on 27 Oct 2017 (Friday)

• Maximum daily relative wind contribution of 3.7% on 3 Oct 2017 (Tuesday)

• Maximum daily relative CSP contribution of 0.7% on 21 Oct 2017 (Saturday)

1.6%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

3.8%

0.4%

1.8%

1.6%

29

5.4%

0.5%

3.0%

1.8%

28

5.3%

0.5%

3.1%

1.7%

27

5.6%

0.3%

3.4%

1.9%

26

5.7%

0.6%

3.4%

1.7%

25

5.0%

0.5%

2.9%

1.6%

24

4.4%

0.6%

2.1%

1.7%

23

5.4%

0.5%

3.4%

1.5%

22

3.8%

0.6%

1.6%

1.6%

21

3.5%

0.7%

0.9%

1.9%

20

3.8%

0.6%

1.4%

1.8%

19

5.2%

0.5%

3.0%

1.8%

18

3.9%

0.5%

1.6%

1.8%

17

5.4%

0.5%

3.1%

1.8%

16

5.0%

0.5%

2.8%

1.7%

15

4.9%

0.6%

2.5%

1.8%

14

6.0%

0.6%

3.6%

1.7%

13

4.9%

0.6%

2.6%

1.8%

12

4.4%

0.5%

2.1%

1.8%

11

3.8%

0.6%

1.4%

1.8%

10

3.8%

0.6%

1.6%

1.7%

9

4.2%

0.3%

2.6%

1.3%

8

4.2%

0.4%

2.3%

1.4%

7

3.5%


1.2%

1.6%

6

2.5%

0.6%

0.3%

5

2.6%

0.5%

0.7%

1.5%

4

3.2%

0.1%

2.7%

0.4%

3

5.3%

0.6%

3.8%

1.3%

2

4.0%

0.3%

2.2%

1.5%

1

2.9%

0.1%

1.7%

1.1%

3.3%

0.3%

1.3%

1.6%

31 30

0.2%

Supply Sources


1804 MW

1474 MW


(end of month)

CSP

Wind

Solar PV

300 MW

61

Daily solar PV, wind & CSP contribution of 3.0-6.3% in Nov 2017 Actual daily relative solar PV/wind/CSP contribution as % of total supply in RSA for November 2017

• Maximum daily relative solar PV contribution of 2.0% on 19 Nov 2017 (Sunday)

• Maximum daily relative wind contribution of 4.0% on 9 Nov 2017 (Thursday)

• Maximum daily relative CSP contribution of 0.7% on 26 Nov 2017 (Sunday)

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

31 30

4.7%

0.6%

2.5%

1.6%

29

4.5%

0.7%

2.3%

1.6%

28

4.7%

0.5%

2.6%

1.6%

27

5.0%

0.5%

2.8%

1.7%

26

6.0%

0.7%

3.4%

1.9%

25

4.4%

0.6%

2.0%

1.8%

24

4.7%

0.7%

2.2%

1.8%

23

4.2%

0.7%

1.7%

1.8%

22

5.0%

0.6%

2.7%

1.7%

21

4.6%

0.3%

3.0%

1.3%

20

5.8%

0.4%

3.8%

1.6%

19

4.1%

0.6%

1.5%

2.0%

18

4.4%

0.7%

1.7%

2.0%

17

3.7%

0.7%

1.1%

1.9%

16

5.0%

0.6%

3.0%

1.4%

15

4.8%

0.0%

3.6%

1.2%

14

4.1%

0.3%

2.3%

1.4%

13

4.1%

0.6%

2.2%

1.3%

12

4.9%

0.7%

2.5%

1.7%

11

4.1%

0.7%

1.6%

1.9%

10

5.4%

0.6%

3.0%

1.8%

9

6.0%

0.6%

4.0%

1.4%

8

5.7%

0.6%

3.4%

1.7%

7


0.5%

3.4%

1.9%

6

6.3%

0.5%

3.9%

1.9%

5

4.7%

0.6%

2.3%

1.9%

4

4.1%

0.5%

1.9%

1.7%

5.8%

4.2%

0.4%

2.3%

1.4%

2

3.9%

0.2%

2.3%

1.4%

1

3.0%

0.3%

1.4%

1.4%

3

Supply Sources


1804 MW

1474 MW


(end of month)

CSP

Wind

Solar PV

300 MW

62

Daily solar PV, wind & CSP contribution of 3.9-8.7% in Dec 2017 Actual daily relative solar PV/wind/CSP contribution as % of total supply in RSA for December 2017

• Maximum daily relative solar PV contribution of 2.4% on 25 Dec 2017 (Monday)

• Maximum daily relative wind contribution of 5.5% on 25 Dec 2017 (Monday)

• Maximum daily relative CSP contribution of 0.8% on 25 Dec 2017 (Monday)

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%


31 30

5.0%

0.7%

2.3%

2.0%

29

6.3%

0.6%

3.9%

1.8%

28

6.1%

0.8%

3.4%

1.9%

27

5.7%

0.8%

2.9%

2.1%

26

6.0%

0.8%

2.9%

2.3%

25

8.7%

0.8%

5.5%

2.4%

24

6.0%

0.8%

3.1%

2.2%

23

5.8%

0.7%

3.0%

2.1%

22

4.2%

0.6%

2.1%

1.6%

21

4.2%

0.3%

3.0%

0.9%

20

4.9%

0.6%

2.5%

1.8%

19

5.6%

0.6%

3.1%

2.0%

18

5.4%

0.7%

3.0%

1.7%

17

6.5%

0.6%

4.4%

1.5%

16

5.9%

0.5%

3.8%

1.6%

15

4.6%

0.7%

2.0%

1.8%

14

5.2%

0.7%

2.7%

1.9%

13

6.3%

0.7%

3.8%

1.8%

12

5.3%

0.7%

2.7%

1.9%

11

5.2%

0.7%

2.7%

1.9%

10

6.1%

0.6%

3.5%

1.9%

9

7.0%

0.6%

4.7%

1.8%

8

4.3%

0.4%

2.4%

1.4%

7

5.0%

0.5%

2.9%

1.5%

6

6.0%

0.6%

3.8%

1.5%

5

4.3%

0.4%

2.7%

1.2%

4

4.6%

0.6%

2.2%

1.8%

3

5.4%

0.8%

2.7%

1.9%

2

4.3%

0.5%

2.3%

1.6%

1

3.9%

0.5%

1.9%

1.5%

5.9%

0.8%

3.0%

2.1% Supply Sources


1804 MW

1474 MW


(end of month)

CSP

Wind

Solar PV

300 MW

63








Agenda

64

Diurnal Courses Actual monthly average diurnal courses of the total power supply in RSA for the months from Jan-Dec 2017

32

30

28

26

24

22

20

18

16

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

34

GW

Residual Load

Wind

Solar PV

CSP


Supply Sources

Note: Design as per Fraunhofer ISE. Pumping load excluded. Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis

2078 MW

1474 MW


(31 Dec)

300 MW

65

Diurnal Courses Actual monthly average diurnal courses of solar PV, wind and CSP in RSA for the months from Jan-Dec 2017

0.8

1.2

0.4

0.6

1.0

2.2

0.0

0.2

1.8

1.6

2.4

1.4

2.0

GW

Solar PV

CSP

Wind


Note: Design as per Fraunhofer ISE Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis

Supply Sources

2078 MW

1474 MW


(31 Dec)

300 MW

66

0.5

1.5

0.0

1.0

GW

Diurnal Courses Actual monthly average diurnal courses of solar PV, wind and CSP in RSA for the months from Jan-Dec 2017

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

GW

Wind


Note: Design as per Fraunhofer ISE Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

GW

Solar PV


Supply Sources

2078 MW

1474 MW


(31 Dec)

CSP


300 MW

67

Solar PV supply in Jan 2017 was very stable Hourly solar PV production for all 31 days of January 2017 and average system load diurnal course

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

1 800

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

Solar PV in MW System Load in MW

System Load Average PV Hourly PV

1474 MW


Note: System load excludes hydro pumping load Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis

68

Solar PV supply in Feb 2017 was very stable Hourly solar PV production for all 28 days of February 2017 and average system load diurnal course

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

1 800

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

Solar PV in MW System Load in MW


1474 MW



69

Solar PV supply in Mar 2017 was very stable Hourly solar PV production for all 31 days of March 2017 and average system load diurnal course

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

1 800

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

System Load in MW Solar PV in MW


1474 MW



70

Solar PV supply in Apr 2017 very stable Hourly solar PV production for all 30 days of April 2017 and average system load diurnal course

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

1 800

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000



1474 MW



71

Solar PV supply in May 2017 very stable Hourly solar PV production for all 31 days of May 2017 and average system load diurnal course

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

1 800

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000



1474 MW



72

Solar PV supply in Jun 2017 very stable Hourly solar PV production for all 30 days of June 2017 and average system load diurnal course

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

1 800

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000



1474 MW



73

Solar PV supply in Jul 2017 very stable Hourly solar PV production for all 31 days of July 2017 and average system load diurnal course

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

1 800

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000



1474 MW



74

Solar PV supply in Aug 2017 very stable Hourly solar PV production for all 31 days of August 2017 and average system load diurnal course

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

1 800

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000



1474 MW



75

Solar PV supply in Sep 2017 very stable Hourly solar PV production for all 30 days of September 2017 and average system load diurnal course

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

1 800

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000



1474 MW



76

Solar PV supply in Oct 2017 very stable Hourly solar PV production for all 31 days of October 2017 and average system load diurnal course

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

1 800

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000



1474 MW



77

Solar PV supply in Nov 2017 very stable Hourly solar PV production for all 30 days of November 2017 and average system load diurnal course

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

1 800

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000



1474 MW



78

Solar PV supply in Dec 2017 very stable Hourly solar PV production for all 31 days of December 2017 and average system load diurnal course

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

1 800

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000



1474 MW



79

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

1 800

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

System Load in MW Wind in MW

In Jan 2017, wind supplied in the evenings Hourly wind production for all 31 days of January 2017 and average system load diurnal course

1460 MW



Average wind Hourly wind System Load

80

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

1 800

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

Wind in MW System Load in MW

In Feb 2017, wind supplied in the evenings Hourly wind production for all 28 days of February 2017 and average system load diurnal course

1506 MW



Average wind System Load Hourly wind

81

In Mar 2017, wind supplied in the evenings Hourly wind production for all 31 days of March 2017 and average system load diurnal course

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

1 800

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

Wind in MW System Load in MW 1519 MW



Average wind Hourly wind System Load

82

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

1 800

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

System Load in MW Wind in MW

In Apr 2017, wind supplies in the evenings Hourly wind production for all 30 days of April 2017 and average system load diurnal course

1545 MW



Hourly wind Average wind System Load

83

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

1 800

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

Wind in MW System Load in MW

In May 2017, wind fluctuated day-to-day Hourly wind production for all 31 days of May 2017 and average system load diurnal course

1568 MW



Average wind System Load Hourly wind

84

In Jun 2017, wind fluctuated day-to-day Hourly wind production for all 30 days of June 2017 and average system load diurnal course

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

1 800

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

System Load in MW Wind in MW 1568 MW




85

In Jul 2017, wind fluctuated day-to-day Hourly wind production for all 31 days of July 2017 and average system load diurnal course

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

1 800

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000





86

In Aug 2017, wind fluctuated day-to-day Hourly wind production for all 31 days of August 2017 and average system load diurnal course

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

1 800

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000





87

In Sep 2017, wind supplied in the evenings Hourly wind production for all 30 days of September 2017 and average system load diurnal course

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

1 800

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000





88

In Oct 2017, wind supplied in the evenings Hourly wind production for all 31 days of October 2017 and average system load diurnal course

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

1 800

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000





89

In Nov 2017, wind supplied in the evenings Hourly wind production for all 30 days of November 2017 and average system load diurnal course

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

1 800

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000





90

In Dec 2017, wind supplied in the evenings Hourly wind production for all 31 days of December 2017 and average system load diurnal course

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

1 800

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000





91

In Jan 2017, CSP storage used in evenings Hourly CSP production for all 31 days of January 2017 and average system load diurnal course

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

CSP in MW System Load in MW 200 MW



Hourly CSP System Load Average CSP

92

In Feb 2017, CSP storage used in evenings Hourly CSP production for all 28 days of February 2017 and average system load diurnal course

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000





93

In Mar 2017, CSP storage used in evenings Hourly CSP production for all 31 days of March 2017 and average system load diurnal course

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000





94

In Apr 2017, CSP storage used in evenings Hourly CSP production for all 30 days of April 2017 and average system load diurnal course

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000





95

In May 2017, CSP storage used in evenings Hourly CSP production for all 31 days of May 2017 and average system load diurnal course

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000





96

In Jun 2017, CSP storage used in evenings Hourly CSP production for all 30 days of June 2017 and average system load diurnal course

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000





97

In Jul 2017, CSP storage used in evenings Hourly CSP production for all 31 days of July 2017 and average system load diurnal course

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000





98

In Aug 2017, CSP storage used in evenings Hourly CSP production for all 31 days of August 2017 and average system load diurnal course

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000





99

In Sep 2017, CSP storage used in evenings Hourly CSP production for all 30 days of September 2017 and average system load diurnal course

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000





100

In Oct 2017, CSP storage used in evenings Hourly CSP production for all 31 days of October 2017 and average system load diurnal course

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000





101

In Nov 2017, CSP storage used in evenings Hourly CSP production for all 30 days of November 2017 and average system load diurnal course

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000





102

In Dec 2017, CSP storage used in evenings Hourly CSP production for all 31 days of December 2017 and average system load diurnal course

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000





103

40

20

35

30

15

10

25

5

0

GW

Solar PV

CSP

Wind

Residual Load

Supply Sources

• Maximum power of 31.1 GW between 19h00 and 20h00 on 23 Jan 2017

• Minimum power of 19.9 GWh between 03h00 and 04h00 on 2 Jan 2017

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

Hourly electricity production in Jan 2017 Actual hourly production from all power supply sources in RSA for January 2017


1460 MW

1474 MW


(end of month)

200 MW

104

40

20

5

10

25

30

15

35

0

GW

Wind

Solar PV

Residual Load

CSP

• Maximum power of 31.6 GW between 19h00 and 20h00 on 23 Feb 2017

• Minimum power of 21.1 GWh between 04h00 and 05h00 on 26 Feb 2017

Hourly electricity production in Feb 2017 Actual hourly production from all power supply sources in RSA for February 2017

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

Supply Sources


1506 MW

1474 MW


(end of month)

200 MW

105

40

0

25

35

20

15

30

10

5

GW

CSP

Wind

Solar PV

Residual Load

• Maximum power of 31.7 GW between 19h00 and 20h00 on 22 Mar 2017

• Minimum power of 21.0 GWh between 03h00 and 04h00 on 26 Mar 2017

Hourly electricity production in Mar 2017 Actual hourly production from all power supply sources in RSA for March 2017

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

Supply Sources


1519 MW

1474 MW


(end of month)

200 MW

106

40

0

30

25

35

5

20

10

15

GW

CSP

Wind

Residual Load

Solar PV

• Maximum power of 33.3 GW between 18h00 and 19h00 on 25 Apr 2017

• Minimum power of 19.5 GWh between 02h00 and 03h00 on 17 Apr 2017

Hourly electricity production in Apr 2017 Actual hourly production from all power supply sources in RSA for April 2017

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

Supply Sources


1545 MW

1474 MW


(end of month)

200 MW

107

25

20

15

30

40

35

5

10

0

GW

CSP

Residual Load

Wind

Solar PV

• Maximum power of 35.5 GW between 18h00 and 19h00 on 30 May 2017

• Minimum power of 20.1 GWh between 02h00 and 03h00 on 1 May 2017

Hourly electricity production in May 2017 Actual hourly production from all power supply sources in RSA for May 2017

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

Supply Sources


1568 MW

1474 MW


(end of month)

200 MW

108

40

15

25

10

5

0

35

30

20

GW

Solar PV

CSP

Residual Load

Wind

• Maximum power of 34.4 GW between 18h00 and 19h00 on 12 Jun 2017

• Minimum power of 20.9 GWh between 02h00 and 03h00 on 18 Jun 2017

Hourly electricity production in Jun 2017 Actual hourly production from all power supply sources in RSA for June 2017

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

Supply Sources


1568 MW

1474 MW


(end of month)

200 MW

109

40

15

25

10

5

0

35

30

20

GW

Solar PV

CSP

Residual Load

Wind

• Maximum power of 34.2 GW between 18h00 and 19h00 on 24 Jul 2017

• Minimum power of 20.8 GWh between 02h00 and 03h00 on 3 Jul 2017

Hourly electricity production in Jul 2017 Actual hourly production from all power supply sources in RSA for July 2017

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

Supply Sources


1568 MW

1474 MW


(end of month)

300 MW

110

40

15

25

10

5

0

35

30

20

GW

Solar PV

CSP

Residual Load

Wind

• Maximum power of 33.7 GW between 18h00 and 19h00 on 17 Aug 2017

• Minimum power of 20.4 GWh between 02h00 and 03h00 on 14 Aug 2017

Hourly electricity production in Aug 2017 Actual hourly production from all power supply sources in RSA for August 2017

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

Supply Sources


1568 MW

1474 MW


(end of month)

300 MW

111

40

15

25

10

5

0

35

30

20

GW

Solar PV

CSP

Residual Load

Wind

• Maximum power of 32.8 GW between 18h00 and 19h00 on 5 Sep 2017

• Minimum power of 20.5 GWh between 02h00 and 03h00 on 17 Sep 2017

Hourly electricity production in Sep 2017 Actual hourly production from all power supply sources in RSA for September 2017

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

Supply Sources


1568 MW

1474 MW


(end of month)

300 MW

112

40

15

25

10

5

0

35

30

20

GW

Solar PV

CSP

Residual Load

Wind

• Maximum power of 32.3 GW between 19h00 and 20h00 on 17 Oct 2017

• Minimum power of 21.0 GWh between 03h00 and 04h00 on 9 Oct 2017

Hourly electricity production in Oct 2017 Actual hourly production from all power supply sources in RSA for October 2017

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

Supply Sources


1804 MW

1474 MW


(end of month)

300 MW

113

40

15

25

10

5

0

35

30

20

GW

Solar PV

CSP

Residual Load

Wind

• Maximum power of 32.3 GW between 19h00 and 20h00 on 16 Nov 2017

• Minimum power of 21.3 GWh between 02h00 and 03h00 on 19 Nov 2017

Hourly electricity production in Nov 2017 Actual hourly production from all power supply sources in RSA for November 2017

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

Supply Sources


1804 MW

1474 MW


(end of month)

300 MW

114

40

15

25

10

5

0

35

30

20

GW

Solar PV

CSP

Residual Load

Wind

• Maximum power of 31.1 GW between 19h00 and 20h00 on 6 Dec 2017

• Minimum power of 19.0 GWh between 02h00 and 03h00 on 26 Dec 2017

Hourly electricity production in Dec 2017 Actual hourly production from all power supply sources in RSA for December 2017

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

Supply Sources


2078 MW

1474 MW


(end of month)

300 MW

115

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

11.0%

12.0%

13.0%

Relative hourly contribution

8.9%

• Maximum solar PV relative contribution of 4.9% between 13h00 and 14h00 on 28 Jan 2017

• Maximum wind relative contribution of 4.9% between 17h00 and 18h00 on 15 Jan 2017

• Maximum CSP relative contribution of 0.6% between 15h00 and 16h00 on 29 Jan 2017

20 21 27 24 28 19 30 31 29 25 23 26 22 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

Solar PV

Wind

CSP

Supply Sources

Hourly solar PV, wind & CSP contribution of 0.5-8.9% in Jan 2017 Actual hourly relative solar PV/wind/CSP contribution as a % of total supply in RSA for January 2017


1460 MW

1474 MW


(end of month)

200 MW

116

29 1 3 2 5 4 7 6 9 8 11 10 13 12 15 14 17 16 19 18 21 20 23 22 25 24 27 26 28 31 30 0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

11.0%

12.0%

13.0%


8.4%

CSP

Wind

Solar PV

Supply Sources

• Maximum solar PV relative contribution of 4.7% between 11h00 and 12h00 on 26 Feb 2017

• Maximum wind relative contribution of 4.4% between 05h00 and 06h00 on 18 Feb 2017

• Maximum CSP relative contribution of 0.6% between 14h00 and 15h00 on 12 Feb 2017

Hourly solar PV, wind & CSP contribution of 0.6-8.4% in Feb 2017 Actual hourly relative solar PV/wind/CSP contribution as a % of total supply in RSA for February 2017


1506 MW

1474 MW


(end of month)

200 MW

117

10 9 12 11 14 13 16 15 18 17 20 19 22 21 24 23 26 25 28 27 30 29 31 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

11.0%

12.0%

13.0%

7.8%


CSP

Solar PV

Wind

Supply Sources

• Maximum solar PV relative contribution of 4.9% between 12h00 and 13h00 on 12 Mar 2017

• Maximum wind relative contribution of 4.5% between 01h00 and 02h00 on 12 Mar 2017

• Maximum CSP relative contribution of 0.4% between 15h00 and 16h00 on 25 Mar 2017

Hourly solar PV, wind & CSP contribution of 0.1-7.8% in Mar 2017 Actual hourly relative solar PV/wind/CSP contribution as a % of total supply in RSA for March 2017


1519 MW

1474 MW


(end of month)

200 MW

118

31 30 29 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

11.0%

12.0%

13.0%


9.7%

CSP

Wind

Solar PV

Supply Sources

• Maximum solar PV relative contribution of 5.2% between 12h00 and 13h00 on 15 Apr 2017

• Maximum wind relative contribution of 5.1% between 01h00 and 02h00 on 6 Apr 2017

• Maximum CSP relative contribution of 0.8% between 14h00 and 15h00 on 16 Apr 2017

Hourly solar PV, wind & CSP contribution of 0.3-9.7% in Apr 2017 Actual hourly relative solar PV/wind/CSP contribution as a % of total supply in RSA for April 2017


1545 MW

1474 MW


(end of month)

200 MW

119

31 30 29 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

11.0%

12.0%

13.0%


7.8%

Wind

CSP

Solar PV

Supply Sources

• Maximum solar PV relative contribution of 4.2% between 12h00 and 13h00 on 28 May 2017

• Maximum wind relative contribution of 4.4% between 03h00 and 04h00 on 24 May 2017

• Maximum CSP relative contribution of 0.7% between 15h00 and 16h00 on 21 May 2017

Hourly solar PV, wind & CSP contribution of 0.3-7.8% in May 2017 Actual hourly relative solar PV/wind/CSP contribution as a % of total supply in RSA for May 2017


1568 MW

1474 MW


(end of month)

200 MW

120

31 30 29 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

11.0%

12.0%

13.0%

9.5%


CSP

Solar PV

Wind

Supply Sources

• Maximum solar PV relative contribution of 4.1% between 12h00 and 13h00 on 16 Jun 2017

• Maximum wind relative contribution of 5.8% between 00h00 and 01h00 on 8 Jun 2017

• Maximum CSP relative contribution of 0.7% between 14h00 and 15h00 on 4 Jun 2017

Hourly solar PV, wind & CSP contribution of 0.2-9.5% in Jun 2017 Actual hourly relative solar PV/wind/CSP contribution as a % of total supply in RSA for June 2017


1568 MW

1474 MW


(end of month)

200 MW

121

31 30 29 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

11.0%

12.0%

13.0%


8.7%

CSP

Wind

Solar PV

Supply Sources

• Maximum solar PV relative contribution of 4.3% between 13h00 and 14h00 on 23 Jul 2017

• Maximum wind relative contribution of 5.7% between 02h00 and 03h00 on 6 Jul 2017

• Maximum CSP relative contribution of 0.9% between 15h00 and 16h00 on 30 Jul 2017

Hourly solar PV, wind & CSP contribution of 0.3-8.7% in Jul 2017 Actual hourly relative solar PV/wind/CSP contribution as a % of total supply in RSA for July 2017


1568 MW

1474 MW


(end of month)

300 MW

122

31 30 29 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

11.0%

12.0%

13.0%


9.5%

CSP

Wind

Solar PV

Supply Sources

• Maximum solar PV relative contribution of 4.7% between 13h00 and 14h00 on 13 Aug 2017

• Maximum wind relative contribution of 5.9% between 00h00 and 01h00 on 1 Aug 2017

• Maximum CSP relative contribution of 1.1% between 15h00 and 16h00 on 27 Aug 2017

Hourly solar PV, wind & CSP contribution of 0.5-9.5% in Aug 2017 Actual hourly relative solar PV/wind/CSP contribution as a % of total supply in RSA for August 2017


1568 MW

1474 MW


(end of month)

300 MW

123

31 30 29 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

11.0%

12.0%

13.0%


9.2%

CSP

Wind

Solar PV

Supply Sources

• Maximum solar PV relative contribution of 4.8% between 12h00 and 13h00 on 3 Sep 2017

• Maximum wind relative contribution of 6.3% between 00h00 and 01h00 on 5 Sep 2017

• Maximum CSP relative contribution of 1.1% between 14h00 and 15h00 on 17 Sep 2017

Hourly solar PV, wind & CSP contribution of 0.4-9.2% in Sep 2017 Actual hourly relative solar PV/wind/CSP contribution as a % of total supply in RSA for September 2017


1568 MW

1474 MW


(end of month)

300 MW

124

31 30 29 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

11.0%

12.0%

13.0%


9.9%

CSP

Wind

Solar PV

Supply Sources

• Maximum solar PV relative contribution of 5.0% between 11h00 and 12h00 on 29 Oct 2017

• Maximum wind relative contribution of 5.5% between 00h00 and 01h00 on 27 Oct 2017

• Maximum CSP relative contribution of 1.2% between 14h00 and 15h00 on 15 Oct 2017

Hourly solar PV, wind & CSP contribution of 0.1-9.9% in Oct 2017 Actual hourly relative solar PV/wind/CSP contribution as a % of total supply in RSA for October 2017


1804 MW

1474 MW


(end of month)

300 MW

125

18 22 17 25 23 24 21 19 31 30 29 28 27 26 20 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

11.0%

12.0%

13.0%


10.0%

CSP

Wind

Solar PV

Supply Sources

• Maximum solar PV relative contribution of 5.1% between 12h00 and 13h00 on 19 Nov 2017

• Maximum wind relative contribution of 5.4% between 22h00 and 23h00 on 8 Nov 2017

• Maximum CSP relative contribution of 1.2% between 15h00 and 16h00 on 26 Nov 2017

Hourly solar PV, wind & CSP contribution of 0.7-10.0% in Nov 2017 Actual hourly relative solar PV/wind/CSP contribution as a % of total supply in RSA for November 2017


1804 MW

1474 MW


(end of month)

300 MW

126

31 30 29 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

11.0%

12.0%

13.0%


12.6%

CSP

Wind

Solar PV

Supply Sources

• Maximum solar PV relative contribution of 5.7% between 13h00 and 14h00 on 25 Dec 2017

• Maximum wind relative contribution of 8.0% between 18h00 and 19h00 on 25 Dec 2017

• Maximum CSP relative contribution of 1.4% between 16h00 and 17h00 on 25 Dec 2017

Hourly solar PV, wind & CSP contribution of 0.4-12.6% in Dec 2017 Actual hourly relative solar PV/wind/CSP contribution as a % of total supply in RSA for December 2017


2078 MW

1474 MW


(end of month)

300 MW

127

The peak-hour contribution ratios of solar PV & wind were higher than a base-load plant in the morning & evening peaks respectively

Notes: Morning and evening peak hours classified as per Eskom‘s 2017 Time of Use Tariff‘s Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis

20 10 0

10

15

0

5

20

25

30

35

2 4 6 8 12 14 16 18 22 24

System Load in GW

1.0

0.0

0.5

1.5

Power in GW

35

30

20 18 16 14 8 10 12 6 0 22 24

0

25

20

15

10

5

4 2

System Load in GW

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

Power in GW

0

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

24 22 20 18 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 16

System Load in GW

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

Power in GW

Illustrative days showing the overlap of wind, solar PV and a base-load plant with the morning and evening peak hours

Morning & evening peak-hour Contribution Ratios

Wind Solar PV Base-load Plant

Wind and solar PV morning and evening peak-hour contribution ratios (for all hours from Jan-Dec 2017) show that:

• Wind contributes 8% more energy during the evening peaks than it does during the other hours of the day

• Solar PV contributes 40% more energy in the morning peaks than it does during the other hours of the day

0.83 1.08 1.40 0.07 0.95 0.88

Peak-hour contribution ratio = relative energy contribution during peak / relative total energy contribution

128

The peak-hour contribution ratio of CSP was higher than a base-load plant in the evening peak

Notes: Morning and evening peak hours classified as per Eskom‘s 2017 Time of Use Tariff‘s Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis

35

30

20 18 16 14 8 10 12 6 0 22 24

0

25

20

15

10

5

4 2

System Load in GW

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

Power in GW

0

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

24 22 20 18 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 16

System Load in GW

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

Power in GW

Illustrative days showing the overlap of CSP and a base-load plant with the morning and evening peak hours

Morning & evening peak-hour Contribution Ratios

CSP Base-load Plant

CSP morning and evening peak-hour contribution ratios (for all hours from Jan-Dec 2017) show that:

• CSP contributes 17% more energy during the evening peaks than it does during the other hours of the day

0.78 1.17 0.95 0.88

Peak-hour contribution ratio = relative energy contribution during peak / relative total energy contribution

129

Jan - Dec 2017 system and residual load duration curves

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 5500 6000 6500 7000 7500 8000 8500 9000

30

25

20

15

40

10

5

0

35

Power in GW

Time in hours of the year (sorted)

Residual Load

System Load

Notes: Residual Load = System Load - wind - Solar PV - CSP Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis

130

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200

40

0

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

Time in hours of the year (sorted)

Power in GW

System Load

Residual Load


1 071 517 hours per year

From Jan-Dec 2017, wind, solar PV & CSP reduced the number of hours with > 30 000 MW total load from 1071 to 517 (~554 hours less)

Wind, solar PV & CSP

reduced the peak

demand by ~240 MW

131

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

5 4 3 6 7 8 9 0 1 2

‘000 hours per year (sorted)

Power in GW

The system load from Jan to Dec 2017 had a peak demand of 5.4 GW, mid-merit of 5.1 GW, and base-load demand of 24.9 GW

System Load

Peak-load (< 1 000 hrs/yr )

Mid-merit load (> 1 000 & < 6 000 hrs/yr)

Base-load (> 6 000 hrs/yr)

5.4 5.1

24.9

35.5

System

Load Duration Curve for Jan to Dec 2017 as per actual data

GW

Sources: CSIR Energy Centre analysis

132

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

4 0 2 6 8 5 7 9 1 3

Power in GW

‘000 hours per year (sorted)

Residual Load System Load

4.9

24.1

35.5

6.6

System

35.5

Residual

24.9

5.1 5.4

Load Duration Curve for Jan to Dec 2017 as per actual data

GW

Wind/PV/CSP changed shape of residual load: new peak-demand goes up to 6.6 GW, mid-merit & base-load demand go down to 4.9/24.1 GW

9 TWh of electricity supplied by wind,

solar PV & CSP from Jan to Dec 2017

Sources: CSIR Energy Centre analysis

Peak-load (< 1 000 hrs/yr )

Mid-merit load (> 1 000 & < 6 000 hrs/yr)

Base-load (> 6 000 hrs/yr)

133

1-hour gradients minimally affected by 3.9 GW of wind, solar PV & CSP

Notes: System and Residual load excludes pumping load for all data points throughout the year. 𝐿𝑜𝑎𝑑 𝑔𝑟𝑎𝑑𝑖𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑡 = 𝑙𝑜𝑎𝑑𝑡 – 𝑙𝑜𝑎𝑑 𝑡−1 Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis

• Max gradient of 4 051 MW/h on 30 May 2017 between 05h00 and 06h00

• Min gradient of -3 392 MW/h on 29 June 2017 between 22h00 and 23h00

• Max gradient of 4 048 MW/h on 9 Oct 2017 between 04h00 and 05h00

• Min gradient of -3 567 MW/h on 29 June 2017 between 22h00 and 23h00

System Load 1-hour-gradients Jan - Dec 2017

Residual Load 1-hour-gradients Jan - Dec 2017

Residual load = System load - Solar PV - Wind - CSP

134

1-hour gradients did not increase due to 3.9 GW of wind, solar PV & CSP

Notes: System and Residual load excludes pumping load for all data points throughout the year Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis

System load 1-hour gradients vs. residual load 1-hour gradients for all hours from Jan – Dec 2017

Cumulative frequency distribution of 1-hour gradients for all hours from Jan – Dec 2017

135

Jan - Dec 2017 1-hour gradients of solar PV supply


Supply Sources

136

Jan - Dec 2017 1-hour gradients of wind supply


Supply Sources

• Large wind gradient spike of 625 MW on 6 June 2017 between 03h00 and 04h00 due to System Operator curtailment of wind IPPs in response to a combination of minimum thermal generation constraints and low demand

137

Jan - Dec 2017 1-hour gradients of CSP supply


Supply Sources

138

Jan - Dec 2017 wind, solar PV and CSP frequency distribution of 1-hour gradients

• Cumulative frequency distribution of 1-hour gradients for all hours from Jan – Dec 2017


139

Solar PV 1-hour gradients in January 2017

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Solar PV hourly gradients in MW/h

Time in hours of the day

Average hourly solar PV gradients in MW/hr

Solar PV hourly gradients in MW/hr


1474 MW


(end of month)

140

Solar PV 1-hour gradients in February 2017

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24






1474 MW


(end of month)

141

Solar PV 1-hour gradients in March 2017

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24






1474 MW


(end of month)

142

Solar PV 1-hour gradients in April 2017

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24






1474 MW


(end of month)

143

Solar PV 1-hour gradients in May 2017

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24






1474 MW


(end of month)

144

Solar PV 1-hour gradients in June 2017

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24






1474 MW


(end of month)

145

Solar PV 1-hour gradients in July 2017

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24






1474 MW


(end of month)

146

Solar PV 1-hour gradients in August 2017

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24






1474 MW


(end of month)

147

Solar PV 1-hour gradients in September 2017

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24






1474 MW


(end of month)

148

Solar PV 1-hour gradients in October 2017

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24






1474 MW


(end of month)

149

Solar PV 1-hour gradients in November 2017

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24






1474 MW


(end of month)

150

Solar PV 1-hour gradients in December 2017

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24






1474 MW


(end of month)

151

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Wind hourly gradients in MW/h


Wind 1-hour gradients in January 2017

Average hourly wind gradients in MW/hr

Wind hourly gradients in MW/hr


1460 MW


(end of month)

152

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24



Wind 1-hour gradients in February 2017




1506 MW


(end of month)

153

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24



Wind 1-hour gradients in March 2017




1519 MW


(end of month)

154

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24



Wind 1-hour gradients in April 2017




1545 MW


(end of month)

155

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24



Wind 1-hour gradients in May 2017




1568 MW


(end of month)

156

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24



Wind 1-hour gradients in June 2017




1568 MW


(end of month)

157

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24



Wind 1-hour gradients in July 2017




1568 MW


(end of month)

158

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24



Wind 1-hour gradients in August 2017




1568 MW


(end of month)

159

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24



Wind 1-hour gradients in September 2017




1568 MW


(end of month)

160

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24



Wind 1-hour gradients in October 2017




1804 MW


(end of month)

161

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24



Wind 1-hour gradients in November 2017




1804 MW


(end of month)

162

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24



Wind 1-hour gradients in December 2017




2078 MW


(end of month)

163

CSP 1-hour gradients in January 2017

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

CSP hourly gradients in MW/h



Average hourly CSP gradients in MW/hr

CSP hourly gradients in MW/hr

200 MW


(end of month)

164

CSP 1-hour gradients in February 2017

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24






200 MW


(end of month)

165

CSP 1-hour gradients in March 2017

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24






200 MW


(end of month)

166

CSP 1-hour gradients in April 2017

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24






200 MW


(end of month)

167

CSP 1-hour gradients in May 2017

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24






200 MW


(end of month)

168

CSP 1-hour gradients in June 2017

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24






200 MW


(end of month)

169

CSP 1-hour gradients in July 2017

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24






300 MW


(end of month)

170

CSP 1-hour gradients in August 2017

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24






300 MW


(end of month)

171

CSP 1-hour gradients in September 2017

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24






300 MW


(end of month)

172

CSP 1-hour gradients in October 2017

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24






300 MW


(end of month)

173

CSP 1-hour gradients in November 2017

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24






300 MW


(end of month)

174

CSP 1-hour gradients in December 2017

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24






300 MW


(end of month)

175








Agenda

176

There has been no load shedding in 2017

0 days, 0 hours of load shedding

0 GWh of unserved energy

Sources: Eskom Twitter account; CSIR Energy Centre analysis

177

Data sources

178

Data sources

Actual production data of wind, solar PV and of the conventional fleet

• Data source: Eskom

• Type of data: Hourly system supply data for 2017 on aggregated level for all installed wind and solar PV

Total hourly system energy for 2017, minus hydro pumping load

Total wind and solar PV capacity operational

• Data source: Eskom

• Type of data: Monthly total wind and solar PV IPPs operational

Actual load shedding data

• Data source: www.eskom.co.za

Backup

http://www.eskom.co.za/

179

Thank you

Re a leboga

Siyathokoza Enkosi

Siyabonga

Re a leboha

Ro livhuha

Ha Khensa

Dankie

Note: “Thank you” in all official languages of the Republic of South Africa