Statistics of utility-scale power generation in South ...

Statistics of utility-scale power generation in

South Africa in 2020

CSIR Energy Centrev2.0

March 2021

Joanne CALITZ

Dr Jarrad WRIGHT

2

We want to crowd-fund research in energy!

OR

https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/GWQYWYS

SCAN HERE TO RESPOND CLICK/TAP HERE TO RESPOND

Please take 5 minutes out of your day to respond to our quick survey on crowd-funding research questions that we would like to explore as the CSIR Energy Centre




3

Summary of 2020 statistics:

Coal still dominates the South African energy mix whilst variable renewables

surpassed nuclear energy contribution in 2020 by some margin

By end 2020 – South Africa had 51.6 GW of wholesale/public nominal capacity

– Coal nominal capacity is 37.9 GW

– Nuclear nominal capacity is 1.9 GW

– Diesel (OCGT) nominal capacity is 3.4 GW

– Hydro nominal capacity is 0.6 GW hydro and pumped storage is 2.7 GW

– Wind nominal capacity is 2.5 GW

– Solar PV nominal capacity is 2.0 GW

– CSP nominal capacity is 0.5 GW

– 723 MW of coal, 415 MW of wind and 558 MW of solar PV became operational during 2020

The electricity mix is still dominated by coal-fired power generation which contributed 83.5% to system

demand in 2020

– Coal energy contributed 83.5% (184.4 TWh)

– Nuclear energy contributed 5.2% (11.5 TWh)

– Renewable energy contributed 10.5% (23.1 TWh)

– Variable renewable energy contributed 5.6% (12.4 TWh)

– The remaining 0.9% came from diesel (1.9 TWh)

Notes: RSA = Republic of South Africa; OCGT – Open-Cycle Gas Turbine; CSP – Concentrating Solar PowerSources: CSIR Analysis; Eskom

4


System demand reduced notably in 2020 due to Covid-19 lockdown and

resulting reduced economic activity

In 2020, system demand reduced by 11.8 TWh relative 2019 (-5.1%) whilst residual demand reduced by

12.7 TWh (-5.7%) relative to pre-lockdown forecasts

– Peak system demand in 2020 was 34.1 GW (vs 2019 which was 34.5 GW)

– Reduced system demand in 2020 vs 2019 was met mostly by reduced coal (-10.4 TWh) and nuclear

(-2.1 TWh) whilst others increased production (particularly solar PV and pumped storage)

– Weekly residual demand under initial lockdown (March 2020) saw weekly energy demand plummet by

over 20% for 4 weeks (biggest reduction of 24.5%)

Over the past 10 years, South African system demand has dropped by 7.8% (mostly seen in 2020) but

even without the effects of 2020, system demand has been on a downward trend

– For the period 2010-2020, system demand has reduced from 254 TWh to 234 TWh (-0.8% per year)

– Excluding 2020 (2010-2019), reduction from 254 TWh to 245 TWh (-0.4% per year)


5


5.6% of system load was supplied by wind, solar PV & CSP in RSA

By end 2020- total wind, solar PV and CSP production was 12.4 TWh (5.6% of SA system load)

– Maximum daily total energy from solar PV, wind & CSP combined was 59 GWh (1 Dec 2020)

– Wind power achieved a maximum peak power production of 2 114 MW (19h00-20h00, 1 Dec 2020)

– Solar PV power reached a maximum peak power production of 1 929 MW (12h00-13h00, 25 Nov 2020)

– CSP power reached a maximum peak power production of 505 MW (12h00-13h00, 25 Nov 2020)

– Maximum instantaneous contribution of wind, solar PV & CSP was 16.0% (15h00-16h00, 27 Dec 2020)

– Maximum instantaneous power contribution of wind alone was 9.6% (05h00-06h00, 12 Apr 2020)

– Maximum instantaneous power contribution of solar PV alone was 7.9% (12h00-13h00, 26 Dec 2020)

– Maximum instantaneous power contribution of CSP alone was 2.3% (16h00-17h00, 25 Dec 2020)

By end 2020 - monthly wind, solar PV and CSP production combined varied between 784-1161 GWh

– Monthly wind production from Jan to Dec 2020 varied between 404-674 GWh

– Monthly solar PV production from Jan to Dec 2020 varied between 262-477 GWh

– Monthly CSP production from Jan to Dec 2020 varied between 74-198 GWh


6


VRE made a notable energy contribution to the energy mix in 2020 whilst

residual demand exhibiting slight increasing need for flexible capacity

In 2020, the VRE fleet of 5.0 GW (wind, solar PV, CSP) reduced peak demand slightly but moreimportantly high demand hours by ~70%

– VRE fleet reduced peak demand by ~1.4 GW

– VRE fleet also reduced high-demand hours (hours with >30 GW system demand) from 492 hours to151 hours (~341 hours less, -70%)

Flexibility needs are not yet significantly increased with the existing VRE fleet in 2020

– The minimum system demand was 14.9 GW whilst residual demand minimum was 13.8 GW

– System demand & residual demand was above 20.5 GW and 19.5 GW respectively for 90% of 2020

– The residual system demand profile indicates an increasing need for flexible peaking type capacity(+6%), notably less mid-merit type capacity (-12%) and slightly less base-supply type capacity (-4%)

– 1-hourly maximum system demand gradient of 3 498 MW occurred on 23 Jan 2020 and minimumgradient of -3 000 MW on 23 Jul 2020

– 1-hourly maximum residual demand gradient of 3 514 MW occurred on 17 Feb 2020 and minimumgradient of -2 930 MW on 17 Aug 2020

– 3-hourly maximum system demand gradient of 7 094 MW occurred on 16 Jun 2020 and minimumgradient of -7 925 MW on 1 Sep 2020

– 3-hourly maximum residual demand gradient of 7 053 MW occurred on 25 Jul 2020 and minimumgradient of -7 672 MW on 1 Sep 2020

NOTES: Residual demand = System demand less variable renewable energy (solar PV, CSP and wind).VRE – Variable Renewable Energy.Peaking type capacity is considered as capacity that would operate for <1000 hrs/yr.Mid-merit type capacity is considered as capacity that would operate for >1000 hrs/yr and <6000 hrs/yr.Base-supply type capacity is considered as capacity that would operate >6000 hrs/yr.

7


2020 saw 859 hours of loadshedding and seemingly the most intense yet (upper

limit 1798 GWh) whilst actually achieved was 1269 GWh

In 2020, loadshedding occurred for 859 hours of the year (9.8%) with an upper limit of 1798 GWh relative

to actually achieved energy shed of 1269 GWh

– Intensive loadshedding before Covid-19 related lockdown (63% of 2020 loadshedding)

– Loadshedding dominated by Stage 2 type loadshedding with smaller contributions from other stages

– Previous CSIR publications considered available public data and an upper limit to loadshedding

(based on announcements and loadshedding stages)

– Available data in 2020 has made more accurate findings possible – 1798 GWh would be the upper

limit based on announcements and stages but actually achieved loadshedding was 1269 GWh

Eskom fleet EAF is on a declining trend and drove loadshedding events in 2020

– Eskom fleet annual average EAF of 65% (relative to 2019 of 66.9% and 2018 of 71.9%)

– EAF comprised of planned maintenance at 11.2% (PCLF), unplanned outages at 20.9% (UCLF) &

other outages at 2.8% (OCLF)

– The best hourly EAF of 78.8% was achieved on 10 Jun 2020 and worst of 51.7% on 31 Dec 2020

NOTES: EAF - Energy Availability Factor; PCLF - Planned capability Loss Factor; UCLF – Unplanned Capability Loss Factor; OCLF – Other Capability Loss Factor; EAF = 100%-PCLF-UCLF-OCLF

Other power system statistics7

Actual load shedding in 20206

Hourly electricity production (2020)5

Daily electricity production (2020)4

Weekly electricity production (2020)3

Monthly electricity production (2020)2

Overview actual electricity production (2020)1

Agenda

9








Agenda

10

Equivalent wholesale South African production and demand as

measured & published by Eskom

Eskom(Dx2)

Eskom1

(Gx)Imports ExportsIPPs1

(Gx)

EG = Embedded Generation; DG = Distributed Generation; Gx = Generation; Tx = Transmission; Dx = Distribution; Demand Side Response (DSR) = Manual Load Reduction (MLR) + Interruptible Load Supply (ILS) + Interruption of Supply (IOS); NOTES: Items in light faded gray are NOT included in statistics presented in this publication.1 Power generated less power station load (auxillaries); Minus pumping load (Eskom owned pumped storage); 2 Transmission/distribution

networks incur losses before delivery to customers

1 1 Production1

2 Imports

3 Exports

32

Other(Gx)

IOS(DSR)

Munics.(Dx2)

Other(Gx)

ILS(DSR)

Largecustomers(Com/Ind/Min)

DSR4

4 4

EG/DG(Gx)Customers

(Dom/Com/Ind/Min)

Eskom(Tx2)

1EG/DG

(Gx)Customers(Dom/Com/Agri

Ind/Min)

1

MLR(DSR) 4

MLR(DSR) 4

1 1

11

From Jan-Dec 2020, 221 TWh of net electricity was produced in SAActuals captured in wholesale market for Jan-Dec 2020 (i.e. without self-consumption of embedded plants)

Notes: “Net Sent Out“ = Total domestic generation (Sent Out) minus pumping load (not shown seperately); Demand not served is exlcuded from graph = Interruptible load supply (ILS) + manual load reduction (MLR)Sources: Eskom; Statistics South Africa for imports and exports

220.6

System Load (domestic and export load)

10.0

Annualelectricity

in TWh

Net Sent Out Imports Exports Available for distribution

in RSA

230.6

13.7

207

12

In 2020, coal dominated the energy mix at 184 TWh of the 221 TWh of

total system load whilst PV, wind and CSP contributed 12.4 TWh (5.6%)Actuals captured in wholesale market for Jan-Dec 2020 (i.e. without self-consumption of embedded plants)

Diesel + Gas

Other

220.6

Solar PV CSP Pump load

Hydro DSR

0.8(0.3%)

System Load

(domestic & export

load)

4.1(1.8%)

Wind

Annualelectricity

in TWh0.1

(0.0%)

ImportsPumped Storage

Coal Nuclear

184.4(81.6%)

11.5(5.1%)

1.9(0.8%) -6.9

(-3.0%)

9.9(4.4%)

6.6(2.9%)

1.6(0.7%)

1.4(0.6%)5.1

(2.3%)

Notes: Wind includes Eskom’s Sere wind farm (100 MW). Wind and solar PV energy excludes curtailment and is thus lower than actual wind and solar PV generation. PS = pumped storageDemand Side Response (DSR) = Manual Load Reduction (MLR) + Interruptible Load Supply (ILS) + Interruption of Supply (IOS)Sources: Eskom

13

Nominal capacity in 2020Actual nominal installed capacity as at 31 Dec 2020 (excluding embedded generation capacity

and private capacity)

51 595

30 000

0

50 000

10 000

40 000

20 000

60 000

NominalCapacity in MW

OtherSolar PV CSP

2 495(4.8%)

TotalPumped Storage

HydroDiesel + Gas

Coal Nuclear

37 945(73.5%)

1 860(3.6%)

3 409(6.6%)

500(1.0%)

600(1.2%)

2 732(5.3%)

2 032(3.9%)

22(0.0%)

Wind

Notes: RE = Renewable Energy; Total nominal installed capacity = Eskom capacity + IPPs; Embedded generation and municipal-owned capacity excludedSources: Eskom

14

257560

1 075

300 400 500 500210

960

965

1 460

2 080 2 080 2 0802 495

1 474

1 474 1 474 1 474

2 032

2017

5 027

2013

467

20152014

1 520

2018

2 040

3 134

3 854 3 954

200

2016 2019 2020

4 054

+1 053

+520

+1 094

+720 +100 +100

+973

Solar PV

Wind

CSP

Supply Sources

Notes: RSA = Republic of South Africa. Solar PV capacity = capacity at point of common coupling. Wind includes Eskom’s Sere wind farm. Sources: Eskom; DoE IPP Office

From 1 Nov 2013 to 31 Dec 2020, 2 495 MW of wind, 2 032 MW of large-

scale solar PV and 500 MW of CSP became operational in RSA

Capacity operational [MW]

15

Annual energy produced [TWh]

1.10.05

2013

3.3

0.01

1.1

2015

1.0

2014 2018

2.2

2.5

2.6

1.6

3.7

0.5

11.510.8

2016 2020

3.3

5.0

0.7

2017

3.3

6.56.6

1.6

9.0

2019

0.1

4.7

6.9

12.4

6.6

4.1

2.2

Solar PV

Wind

CSP

Notes: Wind includes Eskom’s Sere wind farm (100 MW). CSP energy measured from date when more than two CSP plant were commissioned. Wind and solar PV energy excludes curtailment and is thus lower than actual wind and solar PV generation

Sources: Eskom; DoE IPP Office

In 2020 - 12.4 TWh of wind, solar PV & CSP energy produced in RSA

Supply Sources

16

Production dropped by 4.3% (2010-2019) and 8.8% (2010-2020) resulting

in annual average reductions of -0.5% (2010-2019) and -0.9% (2010-2020)Historical annual electricity production per supply source in TWh

240

140

220

280

180

60

80

0

100

200

40

260

20

120

160

2019 20202018

227

2015 20172016

241

201420132011

238

2010 2021

Annual electricity production in TWh

2012

239249 250

244 241 240 241 239-8.8%

0.1% -2.4%-1.2% 0.0% -0.7% -0.5% 0.7% 0.7% -1.1% -4.8%

DSR

CSP

Wind

Solar PV

Other

Pumped storage

Hydro

Diesel & Gas

Coal

Imports

Nuclear

Supply Sources

NOTES: Demand Side Response (DSR) = Manual Load Reduction (MLR) + Interruptible Load Supply (ILS) + Interruption of Supply (IOS). DSR prior to 2020 has been estimated by the CSIRSources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis

17

TransmissionNetwork

Notes: RSA = Republic of South Africa. Simplified illustration of technology grid interconnections

Illustration: Calculation of average capacity factor of operational power

plant categories in RSA

Rated Capacity Substation Average Capacity Factor (CF)

P = Contracted Capacity measured at point of common coupling, in kW

CF = σ𝑡=1𝑛 𝐸𝑡

σ𝑡=1𝑛 𝑃𝑡𝑛

Where:P = Contracted Capacity, in kWE = Energy production, in kWht = Time periodn = Number of time periods

Rated Capacity, C in kW

= 𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝐸𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑔𝑦 𝑖𝑛 𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒 𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑜𝑑 (𝑘𝑊ℎ)

𝐴𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑔𝑒 𝐶𝑎𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑖𝑛 𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒 𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑜𝑑 (𝑘𝑊)

DC AC

AC

AC

AC

http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwizuLuTgL_TAhUEaRQKHRnsA4MQjRwIBw&url=http://www.petervis.com/electronics/Transformer_Symbol/Transformer_Symbol.html&psig=AFQjCNEwqfgeV8oXypKjonwEFCTnV5yiqw&ust=1493188868544821

18 Wind includes Sere wind farm (100 MW). Sources: Eskom

Annual capacity factors per supply source in South Africa in 2020

WindDiesel & Gas

2020Annual Capacity Factors %

Nuclear HydroCoal Pumped Storage

CSP Solar PV

70.5

56.2

6.4

14.5

21.4

37.0 35.2

26.4

19 Wind includes Sere wind farm (100 MW). Sources: Eskom

Annual capacity factors per supply source in South Africa in 2019

Solar PVHydro

2019Annual Capacity Factors %

Pumped Storage

Nuclear Diesel & Gas

25.7

Coal

83.0

CSP Wind

59.8

20.1

7.212.9

36.5 36.4

20

19.025.9 26.4 25.5 25.4 25.7 25.7 26.4

2013 2014 2015 20192016 20182017 2020

19.0

31.7 32.4 34.5 35.7 35.5 36.4 35.4

20152013 2014 2016 2017 20192018 2020

Wind

NOTES: Historical capacity factors for other technologies not available at the time of publication; Capacity operational as per actual start of operation (can differ from REIPPP contracted date), CSP - only measured from date when more than two CSP plants commissioned. Wind includes Sere wind farm (100 MW). Wind and solar PV energy excludes curtailment and is thus capacity factor is lower than actual wind and solar PV available.Sources: Eskom; DoE IPP Office

In 2020, the average annual capacity factor of the solar PV, wind & CSP

fleet was 26%, 35% and 37% respectively

Average Capacity Factor

Solar PV

31.2 31.738.1 36.1 37.0

2015 2018 202020172013 2014 2016 2019

CSP

Supply Sources

21 Wind includes Sere wind farm (100 MW); Percentages shown are changes within the category between years. Sources: Eskom

Significantly lower production from coal in 2020 relative to 2019 by

10.4 TWh (-5%) - Covid-19 lockdown (reduced demand)Difference in annual electricity production 2020 vs 2019

0

-6 000

-20 000

2 000

6 000

4 000

-18 000

-16 000

-12 000

-14 000

-8 000

-4 000

-10 000

-2 000

-11 812(-5%)

320(7%)

82(12%)

-10 438(-5%)

Diesel & Gas

89(1%)

Difference, 2020 vs 2019in GWh

System demand

Nuclear Coal Hydro

815(25%)

Pumped Storage

Imports DSRCSP Wind Solar PV

-2 071(-15%)

-203(-10%)

69(4%)

1(0%)

95(7%)

2020 vs 2019

22 Wind includes Sere wind farm (100 MW); Percentages shown are changes within the category between years. Sources: Eskom; DSR estimated

Similar reduction in coal production from 2018 to 2019 (-8.5 TWh) but

largely driven by lower EAF – drives increased diesel usage and DSRDifference in annual electricity production 2019 vs 2018

-10 000

-18 000

-16 000

-20 000

-14 000

2 000

6 000

-12 000

-8 000

4 000

-6 000

0

-4 000

-2 000 -401(-37%)

Diesel & Gas

CSP

1 256(146%)

Nuclear

526(51%)

System demand

Coal Hydro Pumped Storage

Imports Wind Solar PV DSR

-4 027(-2%)

3 039(29%)

-8 514(-4%)

265(6%)

-71(-1%)

158(2%)

43(1%)

1 160(604%)


2019 vs 2018

23 Wind includes Sere wind farm (100 MW); Percentages shown are changes within the category between years. Sources: Eskom; DSR estimated

Relative to 2018, 2020 saw combined effects of dramatically lower EAF &

demand, large reduction in coal (-18.9 TWh) but increase in diesel & DSRDifference in annual electricity production 2020 vs 2018

-12 000

-14 000

0

4 000

2 000

-20 000

-18 000

-8 000

6 000

-4 000

-16 000

-10 000

-6 000

-2 000

-18 952(-9%)

-15 839(-7%)


Solar PVSystem demand

WindCSPNuclear Coal

858(26%)

18(0%)

Diesel & Gas

Hydro Pumped Storage

Imports DSR

968(9%)

1 054(123%)

-319(-30%)

595(58%)

159(2%)

1 235(643%)

585(13%)

2020 vs 2018

24

Generation share from primary supply sources in 2010, 2015 and 2020

in South Africa – marginal shifts in energy mix over past 10 years

83.5%

5.2% 0.9%

0.0%

0.3%

1.9%

3.0%0.7%

4.5%

85.4%

4.6%2.2%

0.3%

Other

1.1%

0.9%5.4%

0.0%

89.3%

5.2%4.9%

0.1%0.0%

0.5%

Other

2010 2015 2020

Wind includes Sere wind farm (100 MW); Imports dominated by hydro from Cahora-Bassa (Mozambique)Sources: Eskom

247 235 221TWh TWh TWh

Wind

Hydro

Diesel + Gas ImportsCoal

Nuclear Solar PVOther

CSP

25

Annual peak demand has been declining over the last 10 yearsHistorical annual peak demand in GW

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

35

15

0

5

10

20

25

30

40

45

34.5

RSA Peak Demand in GW

36.236.7 36.7 36.0 35.4 34.5 34.9 35.8 35.334.2

Notes: Includes Demand Side Response (DSR) = Manual Load Reduction (MLR) + Interruptible Load Supply (ILS) + Interruption of Supply (IOS). Sources: Eskom

26

0

20

25

5

10

15

30

35

8

Power in GW

0 20102 4 6 12 14 16 18 22 24Hour

0

5

20

10

15

25

35

30

12 220

Power in GW

2 4 6 8 10 14 16 18 20 24Hour

TotalGeneration

Supply Sources

IPPs: Independent Power Producers; Pumping load: demand from pumped storage scheme when operated in pumping modeSources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis

Illustrative day explaining terminologies usedHourly South African supply structure for a random day

SystemLoad

System Load

Residual Load

Pumpingload

Wind

CSP

Solar PV

ResidualLoad

Supply Sources

= domestic generation (Eskom + IPPs) + imported generation – pumping load= domestic customer load without pumping load (also referred to as simply "domestic load”) + export load

= System Load – wind – solar PV – CSP

SystemLoad

Total Generation = domestic generation (Eskom + IPPs) + imported generation

27

0

5

20

15

10

30

25

35

1395 20

Power in GW

10 32 4 6 147 8 10 11 12 15 16 17 18 19 21 22 23

DSR

Solar PV

Wind

CSP

Pumped Storage

Hydro

Other

Diesel

Coal

Nuclear

Imports

Supply Sources

Note: Hourly production above system load = pumping loadSources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis

Maximum daily wind, solar PV & CSP energy of 59 GWh on 1 Dec 2020Actual hourly energy production in South Africa on 1 December 2020 (Tuesday)

Maximum daily wind, solar PV & CSP

production was 59 GWh SystemLoad

28

35

0

5

30

15

10

20

25

10 13 222 5 8

Power in GW

0 1 3 4 6 197 9 2311 12 14 15 16 17 18 20 21

Wind

DSR

CSP

Pumped Storage

Solar PV

Hydro

Diesel

Coal

Nuclear

Other

Imports


SystemLoad

Maximum daily solar PV energy of 18 GWh achieved on 25 Nov 2020Actual hourly energy production in South Africa on 25 November 2020 (Wednesday)

Maximum daily solar PV production was 18 GWh

Supply Sources

29

0

25

30

15

5

10

20

35

191 213 1120 4 5 166 7 8 9 10 12 13 14 15 17 18 20 22 23

Power in GW

Wind

DSR

CSP

Solar PV

Pumped Storage

Hydro

Diesel

Coal

Nuclear

Imports

Other


SystemLoad

Maximum daily wind energy of 41 GWh was achieved on 13 July 2020Actual hourly energy production in South Africa on 13 July 2020 (Monday)

Maximum daily wind production was 41 GWh

Supply Sources

30

25

0

5

20

15

10

30

35

1153 19 22

Power in GW

0 1 2 4 1716126 148 9 10 13 15 18 20 21 237

Solar PV

DSR

Pumped Storage

Wind

CSP

Nuclear

Hydro

Diesel

Coal

Imports

Other


SystemLoad

Maximum daily CSP energy of 8 GWh achieved on 25 Dec 2020Actual hourly energy production in South Africa on 25 December 2020 (Friday)

Maximum daily CSP production was 8 GWh

Supply Sources

31

20

10

5

25

0

30

15

35

154 187 11 16

Power in GW

0 101 142 3 5 6 8 9 12 2313 17 19 20 21 22

CSP

DSR

Pumped Storage

Solar PV

Wind

Hydro

Diesel

Coal

Nuclear

Imports

Other


SystemLoad

Lowest daily wind, solar PV & CSP production

was 15 GWh

Lowest combined wind, solar PV & CSP energy of 15 GWh on 24 Apr ‘20Actual hourly energy production in South Africa on 24 April 2020 (Friday)

Supply Sources

32

5

0

10

15

25

30

20

35

43 232 5 20

Power in GW

80 156 7 119 2210 1712 13 1914 16 18 211

DSR

Wind

Solar PV

Other

Coal

CSP

Pumped Storage

Hydro

Diesel

Nuclear

Imports


SystemLoad

Maximum inst. solar PV, wind & CSP power of 16% on 27 Dec 2020Actual hourly energy production in South Africa on 27 December 2020 (Sunday)

Max instantaneous wind, solar PV & CSP of

16%

Supply Sources








Agenda

34

2 080 2 080 2 080 2 080 2 080 2 080 2 080 2 080 2 080 2 1882 463 2 472

1 474 1 549 1 699 1 774 1 774 1 774 1 814 1 814 1 957 1 9572 032 2 032

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

Capacity operational

in 2020 [MW]

(end of month)

4 301

Jan

4 376

5 017

MarFeb

4 416

Apr May

4 667

Jul

4 076

Aug

4 376

Sep Oct DecNov

4 1514 376 4 416 4 559

5 026

22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22

Jun

500 500 500 500 500 500500 500 500 500 500500

Solar PV

Wind

CSP

RE Other

Supply Sources

Notes: Capacity operational as per actual start of operation (can differ from REIPPP contracted date), CSP - only measured from date when more than two CSP plants commissioned. Wind includes Sere wind farm (100 MW). RE = renewable energySources: Eskom

In 2020: 415 MW of wind & 558 MW of solar PV was added to the gridTotal monthly installed capacity of utility-scale solar PV, wind and CSP in RSA from Jan-Dec 2020

35

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

40 000

45 000

50 000

3 409

May

1 860


in 2020 [MW]

(end of month)

2 732

46 546

2 732

Apr

6002 732

37 316

2 732600

3 409600

37 31637 316

600

1 860

Feb

2 732

3 409

37 316

1 860

3 409

Mar

6003 409

2 732

37 316

1 860

45 826

37 225

2 732600

3 409

1 860

37 225

1 860

Jun

37 225

1 860

2 732600

2 732

3 409

Jul

37 225

1 860

6003 409

Sep

1 860

Aug

600

1 860

37 225

3 409

1 860

Oct

2 732600

3 409

Jan

37 945

1 860

Nov

2 732600

3 409

37 945

Dec

6002 732

3 409

45 917 45 917 45 917 45 917 45 826 45 826 45 826 45 826 46 54645 917

+720

Diesel (Incl. IPP)

PS

Coal

Hydro

Nuclear

Supply Sources

Notes: RE = Renewable Energy; Kusile unit 2 achieved commercial operation on 29 October 2020Sources: Eskom

In 2020: 720 MW of coal (Kusile) was added to the grid over and above

the additional RE capacityTotal monthly installed capacity of utility-scale generation capacity in RSA from Jan-Dec 2020

36

28.6 25.7 27.123.5 23.0 20.5 22.3 25.6 28.1 28.6 31.8 31.5

26.4

MayMarJan JunFeb Apr AugJul Sep Oct Nov Dec Ave.(year)

Solar PV

Notes: Capacity operational as per actual start of operation (can differ from REIPPP contracted date). Wind includes Sere wind farm. Sources: Eskom

Average monthly capacity factors for solar PV, wind and CSPAverage monthly capacity factors of solar PV, wind and CSP in RSA from Jan-Dec 2020

Average MonthlyCapacity Factor [%]

38.3 35.730.3 29.5 26.1

37.0 37.5 40.735.2 36.2 39.5 36.7 35.2

Jan Feb Mar JulApr May Jun Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ave.(year)

Wind

52.0

35.0 30.1 27.8 28.1 23.1 19.8

33.643.8 43.2

55.1 52.6

37.0

JunJan Feb JulMar OctApr May Aug Sep Nov Dec Ave.(year)

CSP

2472 MW

2032 MW


(31 Dec)

500 MW

Supply Sources

37

13.1 7.4 12.8 1.4 1.9 4.5 9.6 9.1 4.7 1.1 10.7 6.4

Jul OctFebJan Mar MayApr Jun Aug NovSep Dec Ave.(year)

0.0

Diesel (incl. IPP)

Sources: Eskom

Average monthly capacity factors for thermal plantsAverage monthly capacity factors of thermal capacity in RSA from Jan-Dec 2020


55.8 57.2 55.4 45.1 55.0 61.1 60.4 58.9 59.3 59.2 55.2 51.5 56.2

AugJan JulAprFeb Mar May Jun Sep Oct Nov Dec Ave. (year)

Coal

85.898.9

85.2

51.5 47.6 47.467.6 58.0 49.0 60.8

98.6 96.070.5

SepJunMay DecJan Feb Mar Apr AugJul Oct Nov Ave.(year)

Nuclear

37945 MW

3409 MW

1860 MW

Supply Sources


(31 Dec)

38

13.317.1

13.8

21.2 19.7

9.7 9.5 10.9 13.4 16.2 14.4 14.3 14.5

JulJan Feb AugAprMar May Jun Sep Ave.(year)

Oct Nov Dec

Hydro

Sources: Eskom

Average monthly capacity factors for hydro and pumped storage plantsAverage monthly capacity factors of hydro & pumped storage in RSA from Jan-Dec 2020


19.8 19.2 21.825.2 23.7 24.5 22.8 22.1 19.5 21.0

17.8 18.7 21.3

JulJunJan Feb AugMar MayApr Sep Oct Nov Dec Ave.(year)

Pumped Storage

Supply Sources

600 MW

2732 MW


(31 Dec)

39

Monthly electricity production from all power supply sources (absolute)Actual monthly electricity production for Jan-Dec 2020 from the different supply sources in RSA

2

6

12

4

0

8

14

18

10

20

22

16

19.7 19.3 19.1

Monthly electricity production in TWh

18.218.9

19.6

15.2

18.7

20.3 19.9 19.718.8

DSR

Wind

Solar PV

CSP

Pumped Storage

Hydro

Diesel

Imports

Nuclear

Coal

Other

Notes: Pumping load excluded. Wind generation includes Eskom’s 100 MW Sere wind farm.Demand Side Response (DSR) = Manual Load Reduction (MLR) + Interruptible Load Supply (ILS) + Interruption of Supply (IOS)Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis

Supply Sources

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

40

Monthly electricity production from all power supply sources (share)Actual monthly electricity production for Jan-Dec 2020 from the different supply sources in RSA

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%20.3

14.9(79%)

19.6

Monthly electricity production in TWh

15.5(79%)

15.4(79%)

12.1(80%)

19.3

15.3(84%)

16.4(85%)

19.9

16.7(82%)

14.5(78%)

16.3(82%)

18.8

15.9(83%)

16.4(83%)

15.1(80%)

19.7 18.9 15.2 18.2 19.1 19.7 18.7

DSR

Solar PV

Wind

Pumped Storage

CSP

Hydro

Diesel

Coal

Imports

Nuclear

Other

Notes: Pumping load excluded. Wind generation includes Eskom’s 100 MW Sere wind farm.Demand Side Response (DSR) = Manual Load Reduction (MLR) + Interruptible Load Supply (ILS) + Interruption of Supply (IOS)Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis

Supply Sources


41

4.6%4.8% 4.8%

5.7%5.7%

5.7%5.8%

4.9% 4.8%

6.1%

7.1%7.4%

193 122 112 100 105 83 74 125 158 161 198 196

593

517 470 442 404553 581

629 528 583653 674

313

270 331295 303

262 296

345376

417

454 477

0

150

300

450

600

750

900

1 050

1 200

1 350

1 500

1 650

837

951913

Monthly electricity production in GWh

1 099

909

812

1 099

898

1 062

1 161

1 3051 347

Monthly electricity production of SA’s wind, solar PV & CSP fleet Actual monthly production from wind, solar PV and CSP plants in South Africa from Jan-Dec 2020

Solar PV

Wind

CSP


SupplySources

Notes: Wind generation includes Eskom’s 100 MW Sere wind farm. CSP energy only measured from date when more than two CSP plant were commissioned. Wind and solar PV energy excludes curtailment and is thus lower than actual wind and solar PV generation.Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis


(31 Dec)

2472 MW

2032 MW

500 MW

% of totalsystem load








Agenda

43

Weekly electricity production for all power supply sourcesActual weekly production: conventional fleet, wind, solar PV & CSP (Jan-Dec 2020)

2 000

0

1 000

1 500

4 000

500

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 500

5 000

52

Electricity production in GWh/week

1 4 7 10 13 3116 2219 28

3 445

34 3725 43 46 49

4 607

40

CSP

Wind

Hydro

Other

Solar PV

Pumped Storage

Diesel & Gas

Coal

Imports

Nuclear

Supply Sources

Note: Design as per Fraunhofer ISE. Pumping load excluded. First week and last week not full weeks. Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis

44

6.6%

5.9%

6.2%

5.3%

7.4%

5.3%

4.7%

4.8%

6.1%

5.3%5.4%4.7%

4.6%

5.9%

4.8%5.4%

5.9%

5.6%

4.0%

5.8%

5.3%4.2%

5.2%5.5%

6.3%

7.4%

5.1%

5.7%

8.1%

4.6%

3.9%

4.2%

4.9%

3.9%

6.4%

5.4%

3.6%

4.6%

5.8%5.5%

7.6%

4.2%

5.3%

5.8%

6.5%

6.0%

6.6%

7.0%

6.2%

7.0%7.0%7.2%

250

350

0

50

150

100

200

300

400

450

7 31

Electricity productionin GWh/week

1 194 10 13 16 22 25 28 34 37 40 43 46 49 52

Weekly electricity production of SA’s wind, solar PV and CSP fleet Actual weekly production from large-scale solar PV, wind & CSP plants under the REIPPPP from Jan-Dec 2020

CSP

Solar PV

Wind

• Maximum wind + solar PV + CSP weekly production of 346 GWh in week 49 (29 Nov – 6 Dec)

• Minimum wind + solar PV + CSP weekly production of 152 GWh in week 23 (31 May - 6 Jun)

2472 MW

2032 MW

Capacityoperational

(31 Dec)

Note: Design as per Fraunhofer ISE. Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis

Supply Sources

500 MW

% of totalsystem load








Agenda

46

Daily electricity production wind, solar PV & CSP fleet Jan to Dec 2020Actual daily production from large-scale solar PV, wind and CSP plants under the REIPPPP from Jan-Dec 2020

150

100

50

0

700

200

250

400

300

350

450

500

550

600

650

Electricity productionin GWh/day

Pumped Storage

Solar PV

CSP

Wind

Hydro

Diesel & Gas

Coal

Imports

Nuclear

Other


• Maximum daily production of 59 GWh on 2 Dec 2020 (Wednesday)

• Minimum daily production of 15 GWh on 25 Apr 2020 (Saturday)

Note: Design as per Fraunhofer ISE.Wind includes Eskom‘s Sere wind plant. Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis

Capacityoperational

(31 Dec)

2472 MW

2032 MW

500 MW

37945 MW

3409 MW

1860 MW

600 MW

2732 MW

Supply Sources

47

Daily electricity production wind, solar PV & CSP fleet Jan to Dec 2020Actual daily production from large-scale solar PV, wind and CSP plants under the REIPPPP from Jan-Dec 2020

30

65

0

5

10

15

20

25

35

40

45

50

70

55

60

Electricity productionin GWh/day

Solar PV

Wind

CSP


• Maximum daily production of 59 GWh on 2 Dec 2020 (Wednesday)


Note: Design as per Fraunhofer ISE.Wind includes Eskom‘s Sere wind plant. Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis

2472 MW

2032 MW

500 MW

Capacityoperational

(31 Dec)

SupplySources

48

On 90% of the days from Jan - Dec 2020, solar PV and wind had a daily

energy production of 8 GWh or moreFrequency distribution of daily solar PV, wind and CSP electricity production for January - December 2020

Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

GWh/day

CumulativeFrequency

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

GWh/day

CumulativeFrequency

Supply Sources

Capacityoperational

(31 Dec)

2472 MW

2032 MW

500 MW

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

GWh/day

CumulativeFrequency

49

Daily electricity production of between 530-653 GWh in Jan 2020Actual daily production from all power supply sources in South Africa for January 2020

• Maximum daily production of 653 GWh on 29 Jan 2020 (Wednesday)

• Minimum daily production of 530 GWh on 1 Jan 2020 (Wednesday - National Holiday)

600

0

100

200

500

300

700

400

800

2341 9 10 12 3115 245 2818

GWh/day

302 3 1786 7 2911 13 14 16 2219 2620 21 25 27

DSR

Hydro

CSP

Solar PV

Pumped Storage

Wind

Diesel & Gas

Other

Coal

Imports

Nuclear

Supply Sources

Note: Design as per Fraunhofer ISE. Daily production includes generation for pumping load. Wind includes Sere. Demand Side Response (DSR) = Manual Load Reduction (MLR) + Interruptible Load Supply (ILS) + Interruption of Supply (IOS)Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis

CapacityOperational(end of month)

2472 MW

1474 MW

500 MW

37316 MW

3409 MW

1860 MW

600 MW

2732 MW

50

Daily electricity production of between 594-663 GWh in Feb 2020Actual daily production from all power supply sources in South Africa for February 2020

• Maximum daily production of 663 GWh on 6 Feb 2020 (Thursday)

• Minimum daily production of 594 GWh on 16 Feb 2020 (Sunday)

100

0

600

200

400

700

300

800

500

22214 17

GWh/day

12 26141 282 3 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 3013 2315 2916 18 3119 20 24 2725

DSR

Coal

Wind

Solar PV

CSP

Pumped Storage

Hydro

Diesel & Gas

Nuclear

Imports

Other


2472 MW

1474 MW

500 MW

37316 MW

3409 MW

1860 MW

600 MW

2732 MW


Supply Sources

51

Daily electricity production of between 472-681 GWh in Mar 2020Actual daily production from all power supply sources in South Africa for March 2020

• Maximum daily production of 681 GWh on 17 Mar 2020 (Tuesday)

• Minimum daily production of 472 GWh on 29 Mar 2020 (Sunday)

400

0

100

700

600

300

500

200

800

135 231596 257 28122 10

GWh/day

1 3 8 1411 164 18 19 20 272217 24 26 29 30 3121

Diesel & Gas

DSR

Solar PV

Wind

Pumped Storage

CSP

Hydro

Coal

Nuclear

Imports

Other


2472 MW

1549 MW

500 MW

37316 MW

3409 MW

1860 MW

600 MW

2732 MW


Supply Sources

52

Daily electricity production of between 457-526 GWh in Apr 2020Actual daily production from all power supply sources in South Africa for April 2020

• Maximum daily production of 526 GWh on 29 Apr 2020 (Wednesday)


600

700

400

0

100

800

500

300

200

23 291210 30

GWh/day

22201 2 3 26154 5 6 7 8 9 11 241913 14 2716 211817 25 28 31

DSR

Solar PV

CSP

Wind

Nuclear

Pumped Storage

Hydro

Diesel & Gas

Coal

Imports

Other


2472 MW

1774 MW

500 MW

37316 MW

3409 MW

1860 MW

600 MW

2732 MW


Supply Sources

53

Daily electricity production of between 497-618 GWh in May 2020Actual daily production from all power supply sources in South Africa for May 2020

• Maximum daily production of 618 GWh on 27 May 2020 (Wednesday)

• Minimum daily production of 497 GWh on 2 May 2020 (Saturday)

100

300

800

0

700

400

500

600

200

296 211812 248 3125

GWh/day

1 222 3 4 5 7 9 10 11 1714 15 271613 20 23 26 28 3019

DSR

Solar PV

Wind

CSP

Pumped Storage

Hydro

Other

Diesel & Gas

Coal

Nuclear

Imports


2472 MW

1774 MW

500 MW

37316 MW

3409 MW

1860 MW

600 MW

2732 MW


Supply Sources

54

Daily electricity production of between 583-664 GWh in Jun 2020Actual daily production from all power supply sources in South Africa for June 2020

• Maximum daily production of 664 GWh on 17 Jun 2020 (Wednesday)

• Minimum daily production of 583 GWh on 7 Jun 2020 (Sunday)

100

700

200

0

400

500

600

300

800

2 318 2415 22

GWh/day

3 6 13 26 281 4 5 7 199 10 23 3012 14 16 1711 20 21 25 27 2918

DSR

Nuclear

Solar PV

Wind

CSP

Pumped Storage

Hydro

Diesel & Gas

Other

Coal

Imports


2472 MW

1774 MW

500 MW

37225 MW

3409 MW

1860 MW

600 MW

2732 MW


Supply Sources

55

Daily electricity production of between 591-671 GWh in Jul 2020Actual daily production from all power supply sources in South Africa for July 2020

• Maximum daily production of 671 GWh on 15 Jul 2020 (Wednesday)

• Minimum daily production of 591 GWh on 5 Jul 2020 (Sunday)

500

200

0

100

600

300

700

800

400

14 29232 313027101 28

GWh/day

183 4 225 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 15 16 17 19 20 21 24 25 26

DSR

Solar PV

CSP

Wind

Pumped Storage

Other

Hydro

Nuclear

Diesel & Gas

Coal

Imports


2472 MW

1814 MW

500 MW

37225 MW

3409 MW

1860 MW

600 MW

2732 MW


Supply Sources

56

Daily electricity production of between 576-670 GWh in Aug 2020Actual daily production from all power supply sources in South Africa for August 2020

• Maximum daily production of 670 GWh on 20 Aug 2020 (Thursday)

• Minimum daily production of 576 GWh on 2 Aug 2020 (Sunday)

400

100

700

0

200

800

300

600

500

1813 314 231

GWh/day

2 3 5 6 7 8 9 10 291511 12 272216 2417 1914 21 25 26 28 3020

CSP

DSR

Solar PV

Coal

Wind

Other

Pumped Storage

Imports

Hydro

Diesel & Gas

Nuclear


2472 MW

1814 MW

500 MW

37225 MW

3409 MW

1860 MW

600 MW

2732 MW


Supply Sources

57

Daily electricity production of between 578-678 GWh in Sep 2020Actual daily production from all power supply sources in South Africa for September 2020

• Maximum daily production of 678 GWh on 1 Sep 2020 (Tuesday)

• Minimum daily production of 578 GWh on 20 Sep 2020 (Sunday)

0

500

600

100

400

800

200

700

300

206 14 21162 297

GWh/day

1 103 4 5 8 9 11 12 2813 15 3017 18 2319 22 2624 25 27 31

DSR

Pumped Storage

Wind

Solar PV

Other

CSP

Hydro

Diesel & Gas

Coal

Nuclear

Imports


2472 MW

1957 MW

500 MW

37225 MW

3409 MW

1860 MW

600 MW

2732 MW


Supply Sources

58

Daily electricity production of between 574-648 GWh in Oct 2020Actual daily production from all power supply sources in South Africa for October 2020

• Maximum daily production of 648 GWh on 2 Oct 2020 (Friday)

• Minimum daily production of 574 GWh on 25 Oct 2020 (Sunday)

0

100

400

700

200

300

800

600

500

304

GWh/day

5 186 7 291 252 263 8 9 10 11 2712 13 281714 15 16 19 2220 21 23 3124

DSR

Solar PV

Wind

CSP

Pumped Storage

Hydro

Other

Diesel & Gas

Coal

Nuclear

Imports


2188 MW

1957 MW

500 MW

37225 MW

3409 MW

1860 MW

600 MW

2732 MW


Supply Sources

59

Daily electricity production of between 574-637 GWh in Nov 2020Actual daily production from all power supply sources in South Africa for November 2020

• Maximum daily production of 637 GWh on 10 Nov 2020 (Tuesday)

• Minimum daily production of 574 GWh on 29 Nov 2020 (Sunday)

500

300

700

400

0

100

200

600

800

3 2619141 271713 284 2012

GWh/day

252 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 15 16 18 21 3022 23 24 29 31Imports

Nuclear

DSR

CSP

Wind

Solar PV

Other

Pumped Storage

Hydro

Diesel & Gas

Coal


2463 MW

2032 MW

500 MW

37945 MW

3409 MW

1860 MW

600 MW

2732 MW


Supply Sources

60

Daily electricity production of between 514-629 GWh in Dec 2020Actual daily production from all power supply sources in South Africa for December 2020

• Maximum daily production of 629 GWh on 3 Dec 2020 (Thursday)

• Minimum daily production of 514 GWh on 26 Dec 2020 (Saturday)

100

500

800

600

200

300

0

400

700

1913 28175 274 7

GWh/day

1 2362 3 8 189 10 11 12 14 15 16 20 21 2622 24 25 29 30 31

DSR

Solar PV

Wind

CSP

Pumped Storage

Hydro

Diesel & Gas

Coal

Nuclear

Imports

Other


2495 MW

2032 MW

500 MW

37945 MW

3409 MW

1860 MW

600 MW

2732 MW


Supply Sources

61

Daily solar PV, wind & CSP contribution of 3.6-8.2% in Jan 2020Actual daily relative solar PV/wind/CSP contribution as % of total supply in RSA for January 2020

• Maximum daily relative solar PV contribution of 2.0% on 5 Jan 2020 (Sunday)

• Maximum daily relative wind contribution of 5.2% on 19 Jan 2020 (Sunday)

• Maximum daily relative CSP contribution of 1.3% on 1 Jan 2020 (Wednesday-National Holiday)

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

1.6%

1.6%

4 118

1.8%

2

2.1%

1.3%

Relative daily contribution

1

2.0%

1.7%

3.6%

2.0%5.5%

3.3%

1.3%

2.7%

1.1%

1.6%

5.9%

4.2%

1.2%

1.1%

2.8%

1.2%

3

3.2%

1.8%

1.2%

3.8%

2.6%

5

1.2% 1.3%

1.7%

2.3%

5.8%

0.9% 1.1%

0.9%

6

2.7%

5.7%

0.1%

7

6.3%

1.0%

2.4%

2.8%

0.5%

1.6%

13

1.6%

3.4%

9

3.5%

10 27

1.7%

1.8%

1.2%

12

1.6%

1.1%

2.1%

1.1%

14

5.8%

3.7%

1.7%

1.0%

15

5.5%

1.7%

1.8%

1.0%

16

1.7%

1.5%

0.9%

17

5.9%

0.9%

18

1.6%

5.2%

1.0%

19

4.8%

1.1%

20

1.6%

2.9%

1.0%

21

2.3%2.3%

0.9%

22

1.7%

3.6%

0.9%

23 24

1.3%

3.2%

26

0.7%

1.7%

3.2%

0.9%

25

1.9%

3.2%

1.8%

1.2%

1.8%

2.1%

1.1%

28

1.8%

2.8%

1.1%

29

3.0%

1.2%

30

1.7%

1.1%

31

6.9%

6.2%6.6%

5.2%

5.6%

7.1%

4.8%

3.6%3.9%

6.2%

4.8%

4.4% 4.5%

6.2%

7.4%7.8%

5.4%

4.9%5.2%

8.2%

5.4%5.0%

6.4%

5.8%

Note: Total supply includes generation for pumping loadSources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis

Solar PV

Wind

CSP

2080 MW

1474 MW


(end of month)

500 MW

Supply Sources

62

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

0.8%

1.7%

2.4%

1.3%

1.2%

1.4%

0.3%

1.6%

5 29

2.9%2.0%

3.3%

1.6%

3


2.2%3.0%

2.3%

3.1%

1.6%

2.7%

0.5%

1.6%

0.5%0.9%

1

0.5%

2.3%

0.7%

1.3%

3.0%

1.4%

2

0.9%0.8%

1.5%

0.5%

104

3.9%

1.3%

2.9%2.7%

1.5%

3.4%

6 129

1.9%

1.1%

0.7%

7 8

1.2%

2.7%

1.5%

3.2%

11

0.9%

13

0.9%

14

1.2%

1.9%

0.2%

15

1.1%

4.2%

0.3%0.8%

16

1.0%

2.4%

0.4%

17

1.0%

0.4%

18

1.1%

2.0%

0.5%

19

1.4%

0.7%

20

1.8%

1.4%

0.8%

21

1.6%

3.7%

5.2%

0.8%

1.5%

22

3.8%

1.1%

23

2.0%

2.1%

5.0%

1.1%

24

1.9%

1.0%

25

0.3%

26

1.5%

1.4%

3.0%

0.6%

27

2.0%

4.1%

28

3.8%

0.6%

4.4%

30 31

4.8%

4.3%4.0%

5.4%5.6%

4.7%

4.4%

5.7%

5.2%

4.7%

4.2%

3.2%

5.5%

3.7%

4.5%

3.6%

5.0%

4.0%

6.1%

7.1%

5.1%4.8% 4.7%

6.9%

5.9%5.6%

Solar PV

Wind

CSP

Daily solar PV, wind & CSP contribution of 3.2-7.1% in Feb 2020Actual daily relative solar PV/wind/CSP contribution as % of total supply in RSA for February

2020

• Maximum daily relative solar PV contribution of 2.3% on 23 Feb 2020 (Sunday)

• Maximum daily relative wind contribution of 4.2% on 16 Feb 2020 (Sunday)

• Maximum daily relative CSP contribution of 1.2% on 9 Feb 2020 (Sunday)


Supply Sources

2080 MW

1549 MW


(end of month)

500 MW

63

Daily solar PV, wind & CSP contribution of 3.0-8.3% in Mar 2020Actual daily relative solar PV/wind/CSP contribution as % of total supply in RSA for March 2020

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

4 10

1.0%

1.2%

0.1% 0.2%

25

1.9%

0.7%

1

0.6%0.6%

1.4%

1.3%

1.3%


0.7%

2.4%

5.3%

1.8%

1.3%

0.6%

4.3%

2

1.5%

1.9%

0.7%

83

1.9%1.9%

1.4%

1.8%3.3%

1.8%

0.5%

1.8%

3.7%

5

0.2%

2.5%1.8%

2.0%

6

2.0%1.5%

7

2.0%

1.9%

1.9%

2.3%

0.7% 0.7%

9

2.6%

3.7%

1.8%

1.3%

0.3%

12

1.7%

13

2.2%

0.8%

14

2.0%

2.8%

0.9%

15 21

1.7%

4.5%

0.7%

16

1.4%

3.6%

0.5%

6.8%

17

1.7%

3.5%

0.7%

18

1.6%

2.2%

0.5%

2719

1.8%

2.4%

0.6%

20

1.7%

1.3%

0.3%

1.7%

1.8%

0.4%

22

1.7%

2.2%

0.6%

23

1.6%

0.4%

24

1.9%

2.6%

0.8%

2.2%

0.9%

4.2%

26

2.5%

3.1%

11

2.5%

6.9%

4.1%

1.1%

28

2.4%

1.0%

29

4.2%

2.5%

0.7%

30

4.9%

0.1%

31

3.7%4.0% 3.9% 4.1%

1.1%

4.9%

4.1%

3.0%

4.0% 4.1%

5.0%

5.6%5.4%

5.9%

4.9%

4.0%

4.5%

3.4%

5.3%

8.3%

7.7%

7.1%

5.2%

6.4%

4.5%

Solar PV

CSP

Wind


• Maximum daily relative solar PV contribution of 2.5% on 27 Mar 2020 (Friday)

• Maximum daily relative wind contribution of 5.3% on 26 Mar 2020 (Thursday)

• Maximum daily relative CSP contribution of 1.1% on 28 Mar 2020 (Saturday)

2080 MW

1699 MW


(end of month)

500 MW

Supply Sources

64

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

4.5%

92

1.7%

2.7%

0.5%

3.9%


7.5%

25

1.1%0.7%

2.3%

2.1%

3.9%

0.6%

2.3%

4.6%

3.2%

6.1%

6

0.8%

1

5.8%

1.9%

0.8%

3.8%1.6%

0.6%

2.6%

0.9%

3

7.0%

23

2.2%

2.4%

4

0.8%

3.5%

4.7%

0.9%

5

2.6%

5.9%

2.4%

1.0%

6.6%

0.8%

107

2.5%

188

0.8%

2.3%

3.5%

1.0%

1.9%

2.2%

3.9%

11

2.3%

0.9%

12

2.0%

2.1%

13

3.2%

14

2.3%

1.3%

0.9%

15

1.3%

2.5%

1.0%

0.7%

16

2.5%

1.4%

1.0%

17

2.4%

1.0%

4.4%

0.8%

19

2.2%

4.4%

0.5%

1.2%

20

4.2%

1.6%

1.9%

0.2%

21

2.0%

1.7%

0.3%

22

5.2%

1.5%

1.5%

0.2%

1.2%

0.1%

24

1.6%

1.8%

0.3%0.8%

2.8%

0.6%

26

0.1%

27

5.2%

1.4%

3.7%

28

1.9%

0.8%

29

2.2%

0.8%

30 31

7.7%

4.9%

6.5%

1.9%

5.0%

9.4%

7.8%

6.8%

5.9%

6.8%

8.9%

4.9%4.6%

4.8%

5.6%

7.5%

3.7%4.1%

3.1%3.0%

5.7%

4.0%3.8%

8.1%

Solar PV

CSP

Wind

Daily solar PV, wind & CSP contribution of 3.0-9.4% in Apr 2020Actual daily relative solar PV/wind/CSP contribution as % of total supply in RSA for April 2020


• Maximum daily relative solar PV contribution of 2.6% on 7 Apr 2020 (Tuesday)

• Maximum daily relative wind contribution of 5.9% on 6 Apr 2020 (Monday)

• Maximum daily relative CSP contribution of 1.1% on 8 Apr 2020 (Wednesday)

2080 MW

1774 MW


(end of month)

500 MW

Supply Sources

65

Daily solar PV, wind & CSP contribution of 3.0-8.2% in May 2020Actual daily relative solar PV/wind/CSP contribution as % of total supply in RSA for May 2020

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

6

0.7%

4.8%

8

0.4%

1.8%

7

0.7%


2.2%

1.0%

0.7%

1

2.3%

3.7%

0.8%

122

2.2%

1.8%

2.3%

3.0%

0.8%0.4%0.5%

3

0.5%

3.2%

2.0%

2.2%

0.3%0.8%

4

1.9%

2.0%

2.0%

5

2.2%

0.7%

1.1%

2.0%

1.5%

0.8% 0.6%

1.8%

0.7%

1.7%

10

1.3%

1.9%

1.0%

1.7%

1.5%

0.7%

6.5%

1.8%

3.6%

9 11

1.6%

2.5%

0.6%

1.7%

13

1.4%

0.6%

1.2%

14

4.7%

1.7%

4.1%

0.6%

5.5%

3.7%

15

1.8%

3.8%

1.3%

0.8%

16

1.8%

1.9%

17

6.4%

1.7%

0.5%

18

1.4%

1.3%

19

1.7%

1.5%

0.6%

20

1.6%

4.1%

0.5%

21

5.7%

1.6%

1.2%

0.6%

22

4.1%

1.7%

23

1.4%

1.9%

24

1.5%

6.3%

1.5%

0.5%

2.7%

25

1.0%

4.0%

0.4%

3.8%

26

0.5%

27

1.5%

4.4%

0.6%

28

1.4%

3.4%

0.6%

3.3%

29

1.4%

0.6%

30

2.4%

1.3%

31

3.8%

6.8%

5.3%

4.2%

4.9%4.7%

3.5%

4.6% 4.5% 4.4%

3.4%

3.8%

6.2%

3.3%3.7%

8.2%

5.3%

3.6%

0.7%

Solar PV

Wind

CSP

• Maximum daily relative solar PV contribution of 2.3% on 2 May 2020 (Saturday)

• Maximum daily relative wind contribution of 6.3% on 25 May 2020 (Monday)

• Maximum daily relative CSP contribution of 0.8% on 3 May 2020 (Sunday)


2080 MW

1774 MW


(end of month)

500 MW

Supply Sources

66

Daily solar PV, wind & CSP contribution of 2.7-7.8% in Jun 2020Actual daily relative solar PV/wind/CSP contribution as % of total supply in RSA for June 2020

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

1310 16

1.6%

0.5%

1.1%

1.5%

3.1%

1.4%

0.5% 0.5%

2.6%

1.6%

1.4%


3.7%

1.6%

30

1.7%

6 24

0.6%

1

1.5%

0.5%

2.6%

1.4%

2

1.3%

1.1%

0.6%

1.6%

0.5%0.4% 0.5%

3

1.2%

2.3% 2.5%

1.3%

0.3%

5

0.4%

1.6%

4

2.8%

11

0.8%

1.6%

1.5%

0.5%

4.6%

1.8%

0.5%0.5%

7 128

1.3%

5.0%

9

5.9%

0.2%

5.5%

4.7%

0.1%

3.2%

0.5%

1.6%

2.5%

0.6%

14

1.5%

1.2%

0.6%

15

7.8%

1.4%

0.5%

1.2%

4.7%

2.6%

0.4%

17

1.4%

3.3%

0.5%

18

1.4%

4.1%

19

3.9%

20

1.5%

2.7%

0.5% 0.5%

21

5.1%

1.5%

1.2%

0.5%

22

1.5%

23

1.4%

5.7%1.4%

5.0%

0.5%

25

1.3%

3.7%

0.3%

26

1.5%

5.9%

0.5%

27

1.3%

4.2%

0.3%

3.9%

28

1.4%

0.4%

29

1.3%

2.1%

31

4.7%

3.3%2.9%

2.7%

3.5%3.8%

3.5%

6.6%

7.2%

6.7%

4.4%

3.2%

4.5%

6.9%

4.2%

5.1%

6.0% 5.9%

4.5%

5.6%5.3%

3.9%

Solar PV

CSP

Wind

• Maximum daily relative solar PV contribution of 1.6% on 1 Jun 2020 (Monday)

• Maximum daily relative wind contribution of 5.9% on 10 Jun 2020 (Wednesday)

• Maximum daily relative CSP contribution of 0.6% on 15 Jun 2020 (Monday)


2080 MW

1774 MW


(end of month)

500 MW

Supply Sources

67

Daily solar PV, wind & CSP contribution of 2.9-7.9% in Jul 2020Actual daily relative solar PV/wind/CSP contribution as % of total supply in RSA for July 2020

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

2

4.1%

0.2%

1.3%

8

1.6%

10

2.6%

1.2%

3

3.0%

9


1.5%

6

3.1%

0.5%0.1%

1

1.4%

4.1%

0.4%0.5%

1.5%

11

3.5%

1.3%

1.5%

0.5% 0.4%

4

1.6%

0.6%

5

3.0%

6.3%

1.5%

1.6%

0.4% 0.5%

1.5%

0.3%

7

1.2%

0.3%

1.3%5.8%

5.5%

0.2%

1.6%

4.3%

0.1% 0.4%

2.2%

4.4%

12

1.4%

13

1.2%

4.3%

0.2%

14

1.5%

24

1.6%

1.9%

4.8%

0.4%

15

1.5%

3.8%

2.4%

23

0.4%

16

0.6%

1.5%

3.1%

0.5%0.3%

17

3.5%

0.4%

18

1.6%

1.9%

0.3%

19

1.6%

2.0%

0.3%

20

3.6%

1.6%

1.7%

0.4%

21

1.5%

1.2%

5.0%

22

1.5%

1.0%

0.5%

1.4%

0.3%

1.7%

3.9%

0.5%

25

1.8%

3.5%

26

2.0%

0.4%

4.5%

2.8%

0.4%

28

1.6%

1.5%

29

1.7%

2.1%

0.6%

30

5.4%

1.7%

0.7%

31

5.0% 5.0%

3.2%

4.5%

5.9%

27

7.0%

5.7%

6.4%

7.9%

5.6%

3.8%

5.5%

4.4%

5.0%

3.8%

3.2%2.9%

6.1%

4.0%

5.8%

4.1%3.6%

4.4%

3.1%

5.7%

Solar PV

Wind

CSP

• Maximum daily relative solar PV contribution of 1.8% on 26 Jul 2020 (Sunday)

• Maximum daily relative wind contribution of 6.3% on 13 Jul 2020 (Monday)

• Maximum daily relative CSP contribution of 0.6% on 31 Jul 2020 (Friday)


2080 MW

1814 MW


(end of month)

500 MW

Supply Sources

68

Daily solar PV, wind & CSP contribution of 3.7-8.0% in Aug 2020Actual daily relative solar PV/wind/CSP contribution as % of total supply in RSA for August 2020

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

0.9%

1.9%

126

0.6%

5.4%

18

1.8%

7

3.9%

6.8%

4.6%

2.1%

15


3.1%

1.8%

1.7%

1.4%

0.6%

5.6%

1.8%

1

0.5%

1.7%

1.9%

3.5%

2

1.7%

1.7%

1.8%

1.7%

3.7%

1.6%

0.6%0.4%

3.1%

3

4.4%

1.7%

10

1.8%

9

4.5%

0.4%

4

2.0%

0.5%

5

0.5%

2.9%

1.7%

13

0.6%

5.3%

0.5%

26

0.5%

8

5.8%

0.7%

3.7%

11

1.7%

3.7%

0.7%

3.3%

2.3%

3.9%

0.6%

14

1.8%

5.5%

0.7%

3.1%

7.8%

0.6%

16

5.9%

1.7%

0.6%

17

1.6%

5.6%

0.6%

1.7%

2.3%

0.6%

5.7%

19

4.8%

0.7%

2.1%

20

1.8%

1.4%

0.7%

21

1.9%

2.1%

0.8%

22

2.0%

6.6%

3.2%

0.7%

23

1.9%

2.2%

0.7%

24

1.8%

3.0%

0.6%

6.2%

2.0%1.8%

3.5%

0.7%

1.8%

3.5%

1.0%

27

1.8%

0.9%

28

1.7%

0.5%

29

1.8%

1.0%

30

0.9%

31

3.8%

25

5.7%

5.2%

7.5%

7.9%

5.7%

6.8%

6.0%

4.7%

8.0%

5.7%

4.6% 4.5%

4.0%

5.9%

4.8%

6.0%6.3%

6.6%

4.9%

4.1%

Solar PV

CSP

Wind

• Maximum daily relative solar PV contribution of 2.0% on 30 Aug 2020 (Sunday)

• Maximum daily relative wind contribution of 5.8% on 9 Aug 2020 (Sunday)

• Maximum daily relative CSP contribution of 1.0% on 30 Aug 2020 (Sunday)


2080 MW

1814 MW


(end of month)

500 MW

Supply Sources

69

Daily solar PV, wind & CSP contribution of 3.3-9.2% in Sep 2020Actual daily relative solar PV/wind/CSP contribution as % of total supply in RSA for September

2020

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

1.9%

1.3%

1.7%

8 23

3.2%

10

1.0%

2.1%

26

2.2%


1.4%

1.0%

13

4.2%

3

1.3%

5.2%

0.9%

2.0%

2.0%

0.8%

2.2%

4.8%

1

2.2%0.8%

2.0%

1.2%0.4%

1.6%

2

2.0%

0.6%0.8%

3.3%

2.2%

4

4.7%

1.0%

2.1%

2.2%

0.1%

5

1.6%

0.8%

6

2.0%

7

1.0%

2.6%

9

6.1%

2.1%

1.0%

2.0%

2.0%

1211

4.7%

0.6%

1.8%

0.9%

2.2%

3.9%

3.3%

1.0%

6.5%

14

2.2%

1.4%

1.1%

15

2.2%

1.1%

16

2.1%

1.0%

1.1%

4.2%

17

2.2%

2.2%

1.1%

18

2.4%

1.6%

1.2%

19

2.3%

3.9%

20

2.4%

21

2.1%

1.1%

22

1.4%

7.4%

1.1%

2.1%

2.3%

5.5%

0.6%

24

5.4%

0.7%

25

2.5%

4.5%

1.2%

2.6%

1.0%

27

2.4%

0.5%

28

2.3%

2.5%

0.5%

29

2.3%

2.8%

0.5%

7.9%

30 31

6.0%

4.5%

5.5%

0.8%

3.7%

4.9%

5.7%

5.1%

6.1%

7.5%

9.2%

4.7%

5.5%5.2%

7.4% 7.4%

5.2%

4.6%

5.0%

8.2%

5.8%

5.2%5.6%

3.3% Solar PV

Wind

CSP

• Maximum daily relative solar PV contribution of 2.6% on 27 Sep 2020 (Sunday)

• Maximum daily relative wind contribution of 6.1% on 13 Sep 2020 (Sunday)

• Maximum daily relative CSP contribution of 1.2% on 19 Sep 2020 (Saturday)


2080 MW

1957 MW


(end of month)

500 MW

Supply Sources

70

Daily solar PV, wind & CSP contribution of 2.6-8.8% in Oct 2020Actual daily relative solar PV/wind/CSP contribution as % of total supply in RSA for October 2020

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

2.6%

12

0.8%0.0%

18

2.0%

4.1%

1.2%

74

3.9%

2.4%

7.7%

2

2.5%

5

2.5%


4.7%

2.0%

1.6%

0.4%0.5% 0.8%

2.7%

1

2.5%

4.7%

3.6%

0.5%

2.5%

3.0%

2.1%

1.4%

3

2.6%

1.2%

1.3%

31

0.8%

1.2%

9

1.5%

1.9%

0.6%

6

2.0%

1.8%

0.7%

8

2.2%

0.9%

5.0%

10

6.0%

2.6%

3.2%

1.2%

11

1.2%

2.5%

13

2.0%

1.2%

14

2.5%

3.2%

1.2%

3.8%

15

2.5%

27

3.0%

0.5%1.2%

16

2.7%

1.2%

17

2.5%

3.2%

1.1%

2.4%

29

1.1%

19 23

2.6%

3.9%

1.2%

20

6.8%

2.4%

2.4%

1.1%

21

2.3%

0.5%

2.6%

0.8%

22

1.8%

3.2%

2.4%

2.6%

0.9%

24

2.1%

3.3%

0.7%

2825

2.0%

0.7%

26

4.8%

3.0%

0.9%

1.8%

7.7%

5.4%

2.3%

1.2%

0.1%

2.0%

3.4%

0.8%

30

7.3% 7.2%

6.3%

4.7%

2.6%

3.7%

4.6% 2.1%

7.1%

5.5%

7.9%

5.7%

6.9%6.7%

6.3%6.1% 5.9%

5.7%5.4%

6.0% 6.1%

6.6%

6.0%

4.5%4.9%

6.3%

1.6%

8.8%

Solar PV

Wind

CSP

• Maximum daily relative solar PV contribution of 2.7% on 10 Oct 2020 (Saturday)

• Maximum daily relative wind contribution of 5.0% on 10 Oct 2020 (Saturday)

• Maximum daily relative CSP contribution of 1.2% on 11 Oct 2020 (Sunday)


Supply Sources

2188 MW

1957 MW


(end of month)

500 MW

71

Daily solar PV, wind & CSP contribution of 5.1-8.8% in Nov 2020Actual daily relative solar PV/wind/CSP contribution as % of total supply in RSA for November 2020

• Maximum daily relative solar PV contribution of 2.9% on 29 Nov 2020 (Sunday)

• Maximum daily relative wind contribution of 5.3% on 28 Nov 2020 (Sunday)

• Maximum daily relative CSP contribution of 1.3% on 8 Nov 2020 (Sunday)


2463 MW

2032 MW


(end of month)

500 MW

Supply Sources

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

1.0%

2.3%

17


1.9%

4.8%

0.7%

13

7.1%

16

2.5%

1.2%1.1%

2.6%

2.7%4.2%

2.8%

14

2.4%2.6%

3.7%

21

2.3%

1.2% 1.2%

2.6%

3.5%2.7%

7

4.8%

2.1%

2.5%

2.4%

3.1%

0.8%

3

2.5%

0.6%1.1%

4

2.6%

8.3%

1.8%

0.8%

4.4%

5 9

1.0%

6.8%

6

3.4%

4.1%

1.3% 1.3%

8

2.5%

1.2%

10

2.5%

11

1.2%

2.6%

12

3.1%4.1%

1.0%

3.2%

15 22

2.4%

2.8%

1.0%

2.9%2.3%

3.2%

1.2%1.0%

2.5%

3.6%

2.7%

1.2%

18

2.6%

3.9%

19

2.7%

3.8%

1.2%

20

1.5%

4.6%

0.7%

21

2.4%

3.2%

0.9%

3.1%

1.0%

23

2.8%

4.6%

1.1%

24

2.7%

1.2%

25

2.9%

3.6%

1.2%

26

2.8%

4.6%

1.2%

27

2.2%

5.3%

0.9%

28

3.0%

2.9%

1.2%

29

6.9%2.8%

1.3%

30

2.5%

31

6.6%

8.4%

5.4%5.1%

5.7%

7.9%

6.8%7.0%

6.4%

7.7%

6.3%

7.5%

7.0%

6.1%

6.5%

7.3%

7.7% 7.6%

6.5%6.8%

8.4%

6.9%

8.6% 8.4%

7.1%

8.8%

7.4%

Solar PV

Wind

CSP

72

Daily solar PV, wind & CSP contribution of 4.2-9.5% in Dec 2020Actual daily relative solar PV/wind/CSP contribution as % of total supply in RSA for December

2020

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

3.0%

2.6%

2.6%

2.7%

1.1% 1.3%

7.0%

1

1.6%

1511


5.4%

1.1%

5.5%

3.0%

1.2%

4.2%

3.0%

0.4%

3.7%

7.6%

0.9%1.3%

10

1.3%

4.7%

2

2.8% 2.7%

1.2%

0.1%

3.6%

3

2.6%

4.6%

4

2.2%

2.6%

3.9%

2.6%

2.6%

1.1% 1.0%

5

3.2%

2.3%

0.9%

6

2.5%

1.4%

24

1.1%

6.2%

7

3.9%

0.7%

8

2.7%

1.2%

3.4%

1.5%

9

2.8%

3.7%

9.6%

4.2%

12 13

3.5%

1.3%

14

2.7%

2.7%

3.6%

29

2.8%6.0%

1.3%

16

3.9%

1.2%

2.5%

17

2.7%

3.7%

7.6%

1.2%

18

3.1%

1.3%

19

2.6%

7.3%

3.4%

0.9%

20

1.2%

2.9%

21

1.5%

3.4%

22

3.1%

0.6%

4.7%3.8%

23

3.2%

2.9%

8.0%

1.4%

3.3%

3.5%

25

1.1%

8.4%

3.2%

1.6%

26

3.2%

5.0%

27

2.9%

1.3%

28

6.9%

1.9%

4.2%

0.5%

2.3%

2.8%

30

0.7%

31

3.4%

7.5%

8.4%

8.8%8.4%

6.9%6.7%

7.6%7.4% 7.5%

7.7%

7.0%

5.2%

8.9%

7.5%

8.1%

9.5%

6.7%

5.7%

7.4%

7.6%

Solar PV

Wind

CSP

• Maximum daily relative solar PV contribution of 3.4% on 26 Dec 2020 (Saturday)

• Maximum daily relative wind contribution of 5.5% on 6 Dec 2020 (Sunday)

• Maximum daily relative CSP contribution of 1.6% on 26 Dec 2020 (Saturday)


2495 MW

2032 MW


(end of month)

500 MW

Supply Sources








Agenda

74

Diurnal Courses of electricity supply sources in RSAActual monthly average diurnal courses of total power supply in RSA Jan 2012-Dec 2014

10

16

18

0

22

26

28

30

32

34

20

2

4

12

6

24

8

14

GW

Solar PV

Nuclear

Wind

CSP

PS

Hydro

Other

Diesel

Imports

Coal

2012 2013 2014

Supply Sources

Note: Design as per Fraunhofer ISE. Pumping load excluded.Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis

75

Diurnal Courses of electricity supply sources in RSAActual monthly average diurnal courses of total power supply in RSA Jan 2015-Dec 2017

15

0

5

10

20

25

30

35

GW

Solar PV

Wind

CSP

Hydro

PS

Imports

Diesel

Coal

Nuclear

Other

2015 2016 2017

Supply Sources


76

Diurnal Courses of electricity supply sources in RSAActual monthly average diurnal courses of total power supply in RSA from Jan 2018-Dec 2020

20

5

0

35

15

10

25

30

GW

Solar PV

CSP

Wind

Coal

Hydro

PS

Diesel

Imports

Nuclear

Other

2018 2019 2020

Supply Sources


77

Diurnal Courses of electricity supply sources in RSAActual monthly average diurnal courses of the total power supply in RSA from Jan-Dec 2020

0

20

10

5

15

25

30

35

GW

Solar PV

Wind

Hydro

PS

CSP

Coal

Diesel

Imports

Nuclear

Other


Supply Sources


78

1.2

3.0

0.2

1.4

0.6

1.6

1.8

2.4

0.0

2.0

2.2

0.4

2.6

0.8

2.8

1.0

3.2

GW

Diurnal Courses for renewable energy supplyActual monthly average diurnal courses of solar PV, wind and CSP in RSA for the months from

Jan-Dec 2020

CSP

Wind

Solar PV

Note: Design as per Fraunhofer ISESources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis

Supply Sources

2495 MW

2032 MW


(end of month)

500 MW


79

1.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

2.0

GW

Diurnal Courses for renewable energy supplyActual monthly average diurnal courses of solar PV, wind & CSP in RSA from Jan-Dec 2020

1.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

2.0

GW

Wind

Note: Design as per Fraunhofer ISESources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis

0.5

0.0

2.0

1.0

1.5

GW

Solar PV

Supply Sources

CSP

2495 MW

2032 MW


(end of month)

500 MW




80

10

0

5

15

20

25

30

35

GW

DSR

Pumped Storage

Solar PV

CSP

Wind

Hydro

Diesel & Gas

Coal

Imports

Nuclear

Other

Hourly electricity production in Jan 2020Actual hourly production from all power supply sources in RSA for January 2020

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31Day

SupplySources


81

10

5

0

30

15

20

25

35

GW

DSR

Nuclear

CSP

Hydro

Solar PV

Wind

Pumped Storage

Diesel & Gas

Coal

Imports

Other

Hourly electricity production in Feb 2020Actual hourly production from all power supply sources in RSA for February 2020

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31Day


SupplySources

82

10

0

5

35

15

20

25

30

GW

Pumped Storage

DSR

Solar PV

Wind

CSP

Hydro

Diesel & Gas

Coal

Imports

Nuclear

Other

Hourly electricity production in Mar 2020Actual hourly production from all power supply sources in RSA for March 2020

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31Day


SupplySources

83

15

0

5

20

10

25

30

35

GW

DSR

Nuclear

CSP

Solar PV

Wind

Pumped Storage

Hydro

Diesel & Gas

Coal

Imports

Other

Hourly electricity production in Apr 2020Actual hourly production from all power supply sources in RSA for April 2020

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31Day


SupplySources

84

5

0

10

15

20

25

30

35

GW

Solar PV

DSR

Wind

Other

CSP

Pumped Storage

Hydro

Diesel & Gas

Coal

Imports

Nuclear

Hourly electricity production in May 2020Actual hourly production from all power supply sources in RSA for May 2020

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31Day


SupplySources

85

10

15

0

20

25

30

5

35

GW

DSR

Pumped Storage

Solar PV

CSP

Wind

Hydro

Imports

Diesel & Gas

Coal

Nuclear

Other

Hourly electricity production in Jun 2020Actual hourly production from all power supply sources in RSA for June 2020

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31Day


SupplySources

86

0

5

10

20

15

25

30

35

GW

Pumped Storage

DSR

Wind

CSP

Nuclear

Solar PV

Hydro

Diesel & Gas

Coal

Imports

Other

Hourly electricity production in Jul 2020Actual hourly production from all power supply sources in RSA for July 2020

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31Day


SupplySources

87

0

5

10

20

15

25

30

35

GW

DSR

Wind

Pumped Storage

Solar PV

CSP

Imports

Hydro

Diesel & Gas

Coal

Nuclear

Other

Hourly electricity production in Aug 2020Actual hourly production from all power supply sources in RSA for August 2020

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31Day


SupplySources

88

20

5

35

0

10

15

25

30

GW

Wind

DSR

Solar PV

CSP

Coal

Diesel & Gas

Pumped Storage

Hydro

Imports

Nuclear

Other

Hourly electricity production in Sep 2020Actual hourly production from all power supply sources in RSA for September 2020

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31Day


SupplySources

89

5

0

25

15

10

20

30

35

GW

DSR

CSP

Solar PV

Other

Nuclear

Wind

Pumped Storage

Hydro

Diesel & Gas

Coal

Imports

Hourly electricity production in Oct 2020Actual hourly production from all power supply sources in RSA for October 2020

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31Day


SupplySources

90

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

GW

DSR

Wind

CSP

Solar PV

Pumped Storage

Hydro

Diesel & Gas

Coal

Imports

Nuclear

Other

Hourly electricity production in Nov 2020Actual hourly production from all power supply sources in RSA for November 2020

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31Day


SupplySources

91

20

0

15

5

10

25

30

35

GW

Solar PV

DSR

Wind

Hydro

CSP

Pumped Storage

Diesel & Gas

Coal

Imports

Nuclear

Other

Hourly electricity production in Dec 2020Actual hourly production from all power supply sources in RSA for December 2020

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31Day


SupplySources

92

147 81 62 53 174 239 10 11 12 13 15 16 18 19 20 21 22 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 310.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%

20.0%

Relative hourly contribution

13.0%

• Solar PV maximum relative contribution of 5.2% between 11h00 and 12h00 on 5 Jan 2020

• Wind maximum relative contribution of 6.9% between 22h00 and 23h00 on 19 Jan 2020

• CSP maximum relative contribution of 2.0% between 14h00 and 15h00 on 5 Jan 2020

CSP

Wind

Solar PV

SupplySources

Hourly solar PV, wind & CSP contribution of 1.1-13.0% in Jan 2020Actual hourly relative solar PV/wind/CSP contribution as a % of total supply in RSA for January 2020


2080 MW

1474 MW


(end of month)

500 MW

93

321 4 85 187 30106 269 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 2919 20 21 2722 23 24 25 28 310.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%

20.0%

10.6%


Solar PV

CSP

Wind

SupplySources

• Maximum solar PV relative contribution of 5.7% between 13h00 and 14h00 on 23 Feb 2020

• Maximum wind relative contribution of 6.8% between 23h00 and 00h00 on 23 Feb 2020

• Maximum CSP relative contribution of 1.8% between 13h00 and 14h00 on 23 Feb 2020

Hourly solar PV, wind & CSP contribution of 0.6-10.6% in Feb 2020Actual hourly relative solar PV/wind/CSP contribution as a % of total supply in RSA for February 2020


2080 MW

1549 MW


(end of month)

500 MW

94

71 52 3 4 16156 8 199 10 2811 12 13 14 17 18 20 21 22 23 24 3025 26 27 29 310.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%

20.0%


12.4%

Solar PV

Wind

CSP

SupplySources

• Maximum solar PV relative contribution of 6.6% between 12h00 and 13h00 on 28 Mar 2020

• Maximum wind relative contribution of 7.1% between 03h00 and 04h00 on 26 Mar 2020

• Maximum CSP relative contribution of 1.8% between 15h00 and 16h00 on 28 Mar 2020

Hourly solar PV, wind & CSP contribution of 0.5-12.3% in Mar 2020Actual hourly relative solar PV/wind/CSP contribution as a % of total supply in RSA for March 2020


2080 MW

1699 MW


(end of month)

500 MW

95

283 181 192 5 3184 76 9 10 2511 12 13 14 15 16 17 20 21 22 23 24 26 27 29 300.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%

20.0%

15.6%


Solar PV

Wind

CSP

SupplySources

• Maximum solar PV relative contribution of 7.0% between 12h00 and 13h00 on 7 Apr 2020

• Maximum wind relative contribution of 9.6% between 05h00 and 06h00 on 12 Apr 2020

• Maximum CSP relative contribution of 1.8% between 15h00 and 16h00 on 17 Apr 2020

Hourly solar PV, wind & CSP contribution of 0.6-15.9% in Apr 2020Actual hourly relative solar PV/wind/CSP contribution as a % of total supply in RSA for April 2020


2080 MW

1774 MW


(end of month)

500 MW

96

1 167 256 302 3 4 5 8 109 11 12 13 3114 15 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 26 27 28 290.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%

20.0%


12.5%

Solar PV

CSP

Wind

SupplySources

• Maximum solar PV relative contribution of 6.5% between 12h00 and 13h00 on 2 May 2020

• Maximum wind relative contribution of 7.4% between 05h00 and 06h00 on 25 May 2020

• Maximum CSP relative contribution of 1.7% between 16h00 and 17h00 on 16 May 2020

Hourly solar PV, wind & CSP contribution of 0.3-12.5% in May 2020Actual hourly relative solar PV/wind/CSP contribution as a % of total supply in RSA for May 2020


2080 MW

1774 MW


(end of month)

500 MW

97

5 301 832 4 6 292297 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 2019 21 23 24 25 26 27 28 310.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%


11.9%

CSP

Solar PV

Wind

SupplySources

• Maximum solar PV relative contribution of 4.8% between 12h00 and 13h00 on 6 Jun 2020

• Maximum wind relative contribution of 7.6% between 23h00 and 00h00 on 11 Jun 2020

• Maximum CSP relative contribution of 1.5% between 16h00 and 17h00 on 20 Jun 2020

Hourly solar PV, wind & CSP contribution of 0.3-12.0% in Jun 2020Actual hourly relative solar PV/wind/CSP contribution as a % of total supply in RSA for June 2020


2080 MW

1774 MW


(end of month)

500 MW

98

3 191 82 4 125 76 9 10 11 2413 14 15 16 17 18 20 21 22 23 25 26 27 3128 29 300.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%


11.4%

Solar PV

Wind

CSP

SupplySources

• Maximum solar PV relative contribution of 5.1% between 13h00 and 14h00 on 25 Jul 2020

• Maximum wind relative contribution of 8.8% between 00h00 and 01h00 on 13 Jul 2020

• Maximum CSP relative contribution of 1.5% between 16h00 and 17h00 on 1 Jul 2020

Hourly solar PV, wind & CSP contribution of 0.5-11.4% in Jul 2020Actual hourly relative solar PV/wind/CSP contribution as a % of total supply in RSA for July 2020


2080 MW

1814 MW


(end of month)

500 MW

99

4 31271 2 73 65 8 9 10 11 12 1613 14 15 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 2825 26 29 300.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%13.1%


Wind

Solar PV

CSP

SupplySources

• Maximum solar PV relative contribution of 5.5% between 13h00 and 14h00 on 23 Aug 2020

• Maximum wind relative contribution of 8.1% between 03h00 and 04h00 on 9 Aug 2020

• Maximum CSP relative contribution of 1.9% between 15h00 and 16h00 on 30 Aug 2020

Hourly solar PV, wind & CSP contribution of 0.6-13.1% in Aug 2020Actual hourly relative solar PV/wind/CSP contribution as a % of total supply in RSA for August 2020


2080 MW

1814 MW


(end of month)

500 MW

100

1163 311 2572 4 29215 8 189 10 271412 1613 1715 19 3020 22 23 24 26 280.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%


15.2%

Solar PV

Wind

CSP

SupplySources

• Maximum solar PV relative contribution of 6.6% between 12h00 and 13h00 on 26 Sep 2020

• Maximum wind relative contribution of 7.6% between 04h00 and 05h00 on 2 Sep 2020

• Maximum CSP relative contribution of 2.0% between 14h00 and 15h00 on 20 Sep 2020

Hourly solar PV, wind & CSP contribution of 0.8-15.2% in Sep 2020Actual hourly relative solar PV/wind/CSP contribution as a % of total supply in RSA for September 2020


2080 MW

1957 MW


(end of month)

500 MW

101

4 6 101 5 302 3 7 8 9 11 2912 13 1714 15 2416 262518 19 20 21 22 23 27 28 310.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

13.6%


Wind

Solar PV

CSP

SupplySources

• Maximum solar PV relative contribution of 6.8% between 12h00 and 13h00 on 4 Oct 2020

• Maximum wind relative contribution of 7.0% between 23h00 and 00h00 on 10 Oct 2020

• Maximum CSP relative contribution of 1.9% between 15h00 and 16h00 on 10 Oct 2020

Hourly solar PV, wind & CSP contribution of 0.5-13.7% in Oct 2020Actual hourly relative solar PV/wind/CSP contribution as a % of total supply in RSA for October 2020


2080 MW

1957 MW


(end of month)

500 MW

102

91 7 302 543 6 8 10 11 12 13 14 15 1916 17 18 20 21 2922 23 24 25 26 27 28 310.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%


14.8%

Solar PV

CSP

Wind

SupplySources

• Maximum solar PV relative contribution of 6.9% between 12h00 and 13h00 on 25 Nov 2020

• Maximum wind relative contribution of 7.1% between 16h00 and 17h00 on 30 Nov 2020

• Maximum CSP relative contribution of 2.0% between 15h00 and 16h00 on 29 Nov 2020

Hourly solar PV, wind & CSP contribution of 1.1-15.2% in Nov 2020Actual hourly relative solar PV/wind/CSP contribution as a % of total supply in RSA for November 2020


2472 MW

2032 MW


(end of month)

500 MW

103

2295 101 8 312 3 4 76 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 300.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%


16.1%

Solar PV

Wind

CSP

SupplySources

• Maximum solar PV relative contribution of 7.9% between 12h00 and 13h00 on 26 Dec 2020

• Maximum wind relative contribution of 8.1% between 18h00 and 19h00 on 25 Dec 2020

• Maximum CSP relative contribution of 2.3% between 16h00 and 17h00 on 25 Dec 2020

Hourly solar PV, wind & CSP contribution of 0.7-16.0% in Dec 2020Actual hourly relative solar PV/wind/CSP contribution as a % of total supply in RSA for December 2020


2472 MW

2032 MW


(end of month)

500 MW

104

Solar PV supply in Jan 2020 was very stableHourly solar PV production for all 31 days of January 2020 & average system load diurnal course

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

Solar PV in MW System Load in MW

Hourly PV Average PV System Load

1474 MW


Note: System load excludes hydro pumping loadSources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis

105

Solar PV supply in Feb 2020 was very stableHourly solar PV production for all 29 days of February 2020 & average system load diurnal course

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23


System LoadHourly PV Average PV

1549 MW



106

Solar PV supply in Mar 2020 was very stableHourly solar PV production for all 31 days of March 2020 & average system load diurnal course

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23



1699 MW



107

Solar PV supply in Apr 2020 very stableHourly solar PV production for all 30 days of April 2020 & average system load diurnal course

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23


Hourly PV System LoadAverage PV

1774 MW



108

Solar PV supply in May 2020 very stableHourly solar PV production for all 31 days of May 2020 & average system load diurnal course

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23



1744 MW



109

Solar PV supply in Jun 2020 very stableHourly solar PV production for all 30 days of June 2020 & average system load diurnal course

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23


Average PVHourly PV System Load

1774 MW



110

Solar PV supply in Jul 2020 very stableHourly solar PV production for all 31 days of July 2020 & average system load diurnal course

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

System Load in MWSolar PV in MW


1814 MW



111

Solar PV supply in Aug 2020 very stableHourly solar PV production for all 31 days of August 2020 & average system load diurnal course

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23



1814 MW



112

Solar PV supply in Sep 2020 very stableHourly solar PV production for all 30 days of September 2020 & average system load diurnal course

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23




1957 MW


113

Solar PV supply in Oct 2020 very stableHourly solar PV production for all 31 days of October 2020 & average system load diurnal course

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23



1957 MW



114

Solar PV supply in Nov 2020 very stableHourly solar PV production for all 30 days of November 2020 & average system load diurnal course

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23



2032 MW



115

Solar PV supply in Dec 2020 very stableHourly solar PV production for all 31 days of December 2020 & average system load diurnal course

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23



2032 MW



116

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

System Load in MWWind in MW

In Jan 2020, wind supply increased in the eveningsHourly wind production for all 31 days of January 2020 & average system load diurnal course

2080 MW



System LoadHourly wind Average wind

117

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

Wind in MW System Load in MW

In Feb 2020, wind supply increased during the evening peakHourly wind production for all 29 days of February 2020 & average system load diurnal course

2080 MW




118

In Mar 2020, wind supply increased during the evening peakHourly wind production for all 31 days of March 2020 & average system load diurnal course

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

System Load in MWWind in MW2080 MW



Hourly wind System Load Average wind

119

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

Wind in MW System Load in MW

In Apr 2020, wind fluctuated day-to-dayHourly wind production for all 30 days of April 2020 & average system load diurnal course

2080 MW




120

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

System Load in MWWind in MW

In May 2020, wind fluctuated day-to-dayHourly wind production for all 31 days of May 2020 & average system load diurnal course

2080 MW




121

In Jun 2020, wind fluctuated day-to-dayHourly wind production for all 30 days of June 2020 & average system load diurnal course

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23





122

In Jul 2020, wind fluctuated day-to-dayHourly wind production for all 31 days of July 2020 and average system load diurnal course

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

Wind in MW System Load in MW2080 MW




123

In Aug 2020, wind fluctuated day-to-dayHourly wind production for all 31 days of August 2020 and average system load diurnal course

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23





124

In Sep 2020, wind fluctuated day-to-dayHourly wind production for all 30 days of September 2020 & average system load diurnal course

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23




Hourly wind Average windSystem Load

125

In Oct 2020, wind supply increased towards the evening peakHourly wind production for all 31 days of October 2020 & average system load diurnal course

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23




Average windHourly wind System Load

126

In Nov 2020, wind supply increased during the evening peakHourly wind production for all 30 days of November 2020 & average system load diurnal course

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23





127

In Dec 2020, wind supply increased during the evening peakHourly wind production for all 31 days of December 2020 & average system load diurnal course

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23





128

In Jan 2020, CSP storage used in eveningsHourly CSP production for all 31 days of January 2020 & average system load diurnal course

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

System Load in MWCSP in MW500 MW



Hourly CSP Average CSP System Load

129

In Feb 2020, CSP storage used in evenings Hourly CSP production for all 28 days of February 2020 & average system load diurnal course

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23





130

In Mar 2020, CSP storage used in evenings Hourly CSP production for all 31 days of March 2020 & average system load diurnal course

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23





131

In Apr 2020, CSP storage used in evenings Hourly CSP production for all 30 days of April 2020 & average system load diurnal course

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23





132

In May 2020, CSP storage used in evenings Hourly CSP production for all 31 days of May 2020 & average system load diurnal course

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

CSP in MW System Load in MW500 MW




133

In Jun 2020, CSP storage used in evenings Hourly CSP production for all 30 days of June 2020 & average system load diurnal course

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23





134

In Jul 2020, CSP storage used in evenings Hourly CSP production for all 31 days of July 2020 & average system load diurnal course

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23




Average CSPHourly CSP System Load

135

In Aug 2020, CSP storage used in evenings Hourly CSP production for all 31 days of August 2020 & average system load diurnal course

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23





136

In Sep 2020, CSP storage used in evenings Hourly CSP production for all 30 days of September 2020 & average system load diurnal course

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23




System LoadHourly CSP Average CSP

137

In Oct 2020, CSP storage used in evenings Hourly CSP production for all 31 days of October 2020 & average system load diurnal course

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23





138

In Nov 2020, CSP storage used in evenings Hourly CSP production for all 30 days of November 2020 & average system load diurnal course

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23




System LoadHourly CSP Average CSP

139

In Dec 2020, CSP storage used in evenings Hourly CSP production for all 30 days of December 2020 & average system load diurnal course

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23




Hourly CSP System LoadAverage CSP

140

0 4 8 12 16 20 24

10

15

0

20

5

35

25

30

System Load in GW

0.0

0.3

1.2

0.6

0.9

1.5

Power in GW

Peak-hour contribution ratio of solar PV was higher than a base-load plant in the morning, wind & CSP higher than base-load in evening peak

Notes: Morning and evening peak hours classified as per Eskom‘s 2020 Time of Use Tariff‘sSources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis

0.3

0.0

0.6

0.9

1.2

1.5

Power in GW

0 4 8 12 16 20 24

5

0

10

35

15

20

25

30

System Load in GW

Illustrative days showing the overlap of wind, solar PV, CSP and a base-load plant with the morning and evening peak hours

Wind

Wind, solar PV and CSP morning and evening peak-hour contribution ratios (for all hours from Jan-Dec 2020) show that:

• Wind contributes 7% more energy during the evening peaks than it does during the other hours of the day

• Solar PV contributes 47% more energy in the morning peaks than it does during the other hours of the day

• CSP contributes 51% more energy during the evening peaks than it does during the other hours of the day

0.83 1.07

= relative energy contribution during peak / relative total energy contribution

1.47 0.09

0.0

0.6

0.3

0.9

1.2

1.5

Power in GW

0 4 8 12 16 20 24

15

0

35

30

5

10

25

20

System Load in GW

0.85 1.51

0 4 8 12 16 20 24

5

0

10

35

30

15

20

25

System Load in GW

1.2

0.0

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.5

Power in GW

0.95 0.89

Peak-hour contribution ratio

Solar PV CSP Base-load plant

141

Jan - Dec 2020 system load and residual load duration curves

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 5500 6000 6500 7000 7500 8000 8500 90000

5

20

15

10

25

30

35

40

Time in hours of the year (sorted)

Power in GW

System Load

Residual Load

Notes: Residual Load = System Load - wind - Solar PV - CSPSources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis

142

0 250 500 750 1000 1250 1500 1750 20000

25

5

10

15

20

30

35

40

Time in hours of the year (sorted)

Power in GW


From Jan-Dec 2020 - wind, solar PV & CSP reduced the number of hours

with > 30 GW total load from 492 to 151 (~341 hours less)

Wind, solar PV & CSP

reduced the peak

demand by ≈1.4 GW

System Load

Residual Load

Wind, solar PV & CSP reduced high demand

(> 30 GW) from 492 to 151 hours

(341 less hrs)

143

4

35

70 1 2 63 5 8 9

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

40

‘000 hours per year (sorted)

Power in GW

System load for 2020 meant peaking type capacity of 5.0 GW, mid-merit

capacity of 6.2 GW, and base-load capacity of 22.9 GW

System Load

Peak-load(< 1 000 hrs/yr )

Mid-merit load(> 1 000 & < 6 000 hrs/yr)

Base-supply(> 6 000 hrs/yr)

34.2

5.0

6.2

System

22.9

Load Duration Curve for Jan to Dec 2020 as per actual data

Sources: CSIR Energy Centre analysis

144

30

5 60 91 2 73 4 8

0

5

10

15

25

20

35

40

Power in GW

‘000 hours per year (sorted)

System Load Residual Load

22.9

5.0

5.5

5.3

6.2

System

22.0

Residual

34.232.8

Load Duration Curve for Jan to Dec 2020 as per actual data

Wind/PV/CSP changes residual load shape - more peaking (+6%), notably less

mid-merit (-12%) and slightly less base-supply type capacity (-4%)

12.4 TWh of electricity supplied by wind, solar PV & CSP from Jan-Dec 2020

Sources: CSIR Energy Centre analysis

Peak-load(< 1 000 hrs/yr )

Mid-merit load(> 1 000 & < 6 000 hrs/yr)

Base-supply(> 6 000 hrs/yr)

145

1-hour gradients minimally affected by 5 GW of wind, solar PV & CSP

Notes: System and Residual load excludes pumping load for all data points throughout the year. 𝐿𝑜𝑎𝑑 𝑔𝑟𝑎𝑑𝑖𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑡 = 𝑙𝑜𝑎𝑑𝑡 – 𝑙𝑜𝑎𝑑 𝑡−1


• Max gradient of 3 498 MW on 23 Jan 2020

• Min gradient of -3 000 MW on 23 Jul 2020

• Max gradient of 3 514 MW on 12 Feb 2020

• Min gradient of -2 930 MW on 17 Aug 2020

Residual load = System load - Solar PV - Wind - CSP

Residual Load 1-hour-gradients Jan - Dec 2020

System Load 1-hour-gradients Jan - Dec 2020

146

1-hour gradients did not significantly increase due to 5 GW of wind, solar PV & CSP

Notes: System and Residual load excludes pumping load for all data points throughout the yearSources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis

System load 1-hour gradients vs. residual load 1-hour gradients for all hours from Jan – Dec 2020

Cumulative frequency distribution of 1-hour gradients for all hours from Jan – Dec 2020

147

3-hour gradients minimally affected by 5 GW of wind, solar PV & CSP

Notes: System and Residual load excludes pumping load for all data points throughout the year. 𝐿𝑜𝑎𝑑 𝑔𝑟𝑎𝑑𝑖𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑡 = 𝑙𝑜𝑎𝑑𝑡 – 𝑙𝑜𝑎𝑑 𝑡−1


• Max gradient of 7 094 MW on 16 Jun 2020

• Min gradient of -7 925 MW on 1 Sep 2020

• Max gradient of 7 053 MW on 25 Jul 2020

• Min gradient of -7 672 MW on 1 Sep 2020

Residual load = System load - Solar PV - Wind - CSP

Residual Load 3-hour-gradients Jan - Dec 2020

System Load 3-hour-gradients Jan - Dec 2020

148

Similarly - 3-hour gradients did not significantly increase due to 5 GW of wind, solar PV & CSP

Notes: System and Residual load excludes pumping load for all data points throughout the yearSources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis

System load 3-hour gradients vs. residual load 3-hour gradients for all hours from Jan – Dec 2020

Cumulative frequency distribution of 3-hour gradients for all hours from Jan – Dec 2020

149

Jan - Dec 2020 1-hour gradients of solar PV supply


150

Jan - Dec 2020: 1-hour gradients of wind supply


151

Jan - Dec 2020 1-hour gradients of CSP supply


152

Wind, solar PV & CSP frequency distribution of 1-hour gradients in 2019

and 2020


2019 2020

2080 MW

1474 MWCapacity

operational(end of year)

500 MW

2495 MW

2032 MW

500 MW

Capacity operational(end of year)

153

Solar PV 1-hour gradients in January 2020

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

60 71 432 175 8 9 10 11 12 13 1614 15 18 19 20 21 22 23

Solar PV hourly gradients in MW/h

Time in hours of the day Solar PV hourly gradients in MW/hr

Average hourly solar PV gradients in MW/hr


1474 MW


154

Solar PV 1-hour gradients in February 2020

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

3 170 71 2 654 128 9 10 1611 13 2014 15 18 19 21 22 23

Time in hours of the day



Solar PV hourly gradients in MW/hr


1549 MW


155

Solar PV 1-hour gradients in March 2020

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

10 5 92 7 193 204 6 8 1510 11 12 13 14 16 17 18 21 22 23






1699 MW


156

Solar PV 1-hour gradients in April 2020

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

620 31 74 5 138 169 10 11 2312 14 15 17 18 19 20 21 22






1774 MW


157

Solar PV 1-hour gradients in May 2020

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

0 4 181 146 152 3 75 8 9 10 1911 12 13 16 17 20 21 22 23






1774 MW


158

Solar PV 1-hour gradients in June 2020

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

62 191770 1 3 54 8 9 1810 11 12 13 14 15 16 20 21 22 23






1774 MW


159

Solar PV 1-hour gradients in July 2020

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

30 6 1051 2 4 117 178 9 12 13 14 15 16 18 19 20 21 22 23





1814 MW


160

Solar PV 1-hour gradients in August 2020

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1 70 4 52 3 6 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23






1814 MW


161

Solar PV 1-hour gradients in September 2020

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

7 140 61 2 5 133 4 8 9 1610 1211 15 17 18 19 20 21 22 23






1957 MW


162

Solar PV 1-hour gradients in October 2020

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

72 60 51 3 4 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23






1957 MW


163

Solar PV 1-hour gradients in November 2020

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

3 6 121 20 174 75 8 9 10 11 13 14 15 16 1918 20 21 22 23






2032 MW


164

Solar PV 1-hour gradients in December 2020

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1 5 2340 2 63 7 8 189 2110 11 2212 13 14 1715 16 19 20





2032 MW


165

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

5 90 211 2 43 237 146 8 10 11 12 13 1615 17 18 19 20 22


Wind hourly gradients in MW/h

Wind 1-hour gradients in January 2020

Wind hourly gradients in MW/hr

Average hourly wind gradients in MW/hr


2080 MW


166

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

40 51 7 172 1863 8 149 10 11 12 2313 15 16 19 20 21 22



Wind 1-hour gradients in February 2020




2080 MW


167

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1 6 171620 3 4 5 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 18 19 20 21 22 23



Wind 1-hour gradients in March 2020




2080 MW


168

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

0 1 32 7 104 5 126 8 9 11 1413 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23



Wind 1-hour gradients in April 2020




2080 MW


169

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

5 70 1 32 64 8 219 10 1611 12 13 14 15 17 2318 19 20 22



Wind 1-hour gradients in May 2020




2080 MW


170

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

0 21 75 113 4 23146 8 9 10 12 13 15 16 2117 18 19 20 22



Wind 1-hour gradients in June 2020




2080 MW


171

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

930 1 2 4 65 217 8 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 22 23



Wind 1-hour gradients in July 2020




2080 MW


172

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1910 62 43 75 8 189 10 11 12 13 14 1715 16 20 21 22 23



Wind 1-hour gradients in August 2020




2080 MW


173

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

6 70 1 2 43 5 198 9 1710 11 12 13 14 15 16 18 20 21 22 23



Wind 1-hour gradients in September 2020




2080 MW


174

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

6 1930 1 2 4 5 7 8 9 10 2111 12 2213 2314 15 1816 17 20



Wind 1-hour gradients in October 2020




2188 MW


175

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

2220 1 3 4 105 76 8 21149 11 12 13 15 16 17 18 19 20 23



Wind 1-hour gradients in November 2020




2463 MW


176

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

70 136 1621 3 4 5 238 9 10 2211 12 14 1915 17 18 20 21



Wind 1-hour gradients in December 2020




2463 MW


177

CSP 1-hour gradients in January 2020

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

8 160 1 2 143 4 215 126 7 9 10 11 13 15 17 18 19 20 22 23


CSP hourly gradients in MW/h


CSP hourly gradients in MW/hr

Average hourly CSP gradients in MW/hr

500 MW


178

CSP 1-hour gradients in February 2020

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

0 41 2 2173 1665 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 17 2318 19 20 22






500 MW


179

CSP 1-hour gradients in March 2020

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

7 230 1 2 6 2153 4 14138 9 2010 11 12 15 16 17 18 19 22






500 MW


180

CSP 1-hour gradients in April 2020

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1330 41 7 212 95 6 108 1811 12 14 15 16 17 19 20 22 23






500 MW


181

CSP 1-hour gradients in May 2020

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

4 2210210 3 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 15 2116 17 18 19 20 23






500 MW


182

CSP 1-hour gradients in June 2020

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

5 7 100 1 3 62 4 8 18169 11 12 13 14 1715 19 20 21 22 23






500 MW


183

CSP 1-hour gradients in July 2020

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

4 1520 2051 73 6 8 109 11 12 13 14 16 17 18 19 21 22 23






500 MW


184

CSP 1-hour gradients in August 2020

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

0 1 2 43 7 185 6 8 9 2310 11 1712 13 14 15 16 19 20 21 22






500 MW


185

CSP 1-hour gradients in September 2020

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

0 31 2 20764 215 108 9 11 12 1413 15 16 17 18 19 22 23






500 MW


186

CSP 1-hour gradients in October 2020

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

19162 21100 1 3 64 75 8 189 11 12 13 14 15 17 20 22 23






500 MW


187

CSP 1-hour gradients in November 2020

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

19151220 1 43 5 7 206 8 9 10 1611 13 14 17 18 21 22 23






500 MW


188

CSP 1-hour gradients in December 2020

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

2320103 50 1 72 4 6 138 9 11 12 1614 15 17 18 19 21 22






500 MW









Agenda

190Notes: Loadshedding assumed to have taken place for the full hours in which it was implemented. Practically, load shedding (and the Stage) may occassionally change/ end during a

particular hour; Total GWh calculated assuming Stage 1 = 1 000 MW, Stage 2 = 2 000 MW, Stage 3 = 3 000 MW, Stage 4 = 4 000 MW, Stage 5 = 5 000 MW, Stage 6 = 6 000 MW;

Sources: Eskom Twitter account; Eskom se Push (mobile app); Nersa; CSIR analysis

1 400

0

800

400

1 800

1 600

600

200

1 000

1 200

2 000

2019

43

30

2017

1 325

1 798

176

568

192

141

2015

13080

Load shed, upper-limit [GWh]

2007 2008

93

201420122009 2010 2011 2013

123

45

874

406

2016 2020

62

2018

618

332

1 192

133

476

203

1 352

Unknown Stage 5Stage 6 Stage 1Stage 4 Stage 3 Stage 2

Year

2007

2008

….

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Duration

of outages

(hours)

-

-

.…

121

852

-

-

127

530

859

Energy

shed

(GWh)

176

476

.…

203

1325

-

-

192

1352

1798

2020 seemingly the most intensive loadshedding year yet –calculated

based on upper limit of loadshedding (as in previous publications)

191Notes: Loadshedding assumed to have taken place for the full hours in which it was implemented. Practically, load shedding (and the Stage) may occassionally change/ end during a

particular hour; Total GWh calculated assuming Stage 1 = 1 000 MW, Stage 2 = 2 000 MW, Stage 3 = 3 000 MW, Stage 4 = 4 000 MW, Stage 5 = 5 000 MW, Stage 6 = 6 000 MW;


600

1 200

800

1 000

2 000

400

0

1 400

200

1 800

1 600

Load shed, upper-limit [GWh]

192

203

1 798

1 325

1 332

Cumulative build-up of loadshedding 2015-2020 (as in previous

publications)

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020


192

Notes: Loadshedding assumed to have taken place for the full hours in which it was implemented. Practically, load shedding (and the Stage) may

occassionally change/ end during a particular hour; Total GWh calculated assuming Stage 1 = 1 000 MW, Stage 2 = 2 000 MW, Stage 3 = 3 000

MW, Stage 4 = 4 000 MW, Stage 5 = 5 000 MW, Stage 6 = 6 000 MW;

Cost to the economy of load shedding is estimated using COUE (cost of unserved energy) = 87.50 R/kWh


450

300

0

500

350

50

200

100

400

150

550

250

308

248

10

Feb-20

42

432

Nov-20

Monthly load shed, upper-limit[GWh]

158

Jun-20

118

353

17 36

Jan-20

325

72

2833

27

42

36

44

Mar-20 Dec-20May-20Apr-20

537

Jul-20

233

Oct-20

84

144

Aug-20

32

Sep-20

168

36 28

Loadshedding to March halted after COVID-19 lockdown but returned by

winter and remained for most of H2-2020

Stage 6

Stage 3

Stage 4 Stage 2

Stage 5 Stage 1

0

200

400

600

800

1 800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

1 192

2020

Annual loadshedding (upper limit)[GWh]

1 798

141

332

133

193

Hourly distribution of loadshedding Jan – Jun 2020

Day 1

Day 31

No load shedding

Notes: Load shedding assumed to have taken place for the full hours in which it was implemented. Practically, load shedding (and the Stage) may occassionally change/ end during a

particular hour; Total GWh calculated assuming Stage 1 = 1 000 MW, Stage 2 = 2 000 MW, Stage 3 = 3 000 MW, Stage 4 = 4 000 MW, Stage 5 = 5 000 MW, Stage 6 = 6 000 MW

Sources: Eskom Twitter account; Eskom se Push (mobile app); CSIR analysis

January February March

0h00 24h00 0h00 24h00 0h00 24h00

April May June

0h00 24h00 0h00 24h00 0h00 24h00

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 0 0 0 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 0 0 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 0 0 0 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 0 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 0 0 0 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 0 0 0 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 0 0 0 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 0 0 0 0 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 2 000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 000 2 000 2 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 3 000 3 000 3 000 3 000 3 000 3 000 3 000 3 000 3 000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 3 000 3 000 3 000 3 000 3 000 3 000 3 000 3 000 3 000 3 000 3 000 3 000 3 000 3 000 3 000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 000 3 000 3 000 3 000 3 000 3 000 3 000 3 000 3 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 000 2 000 2 000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 0 0 0 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

194

Hourly distribution of loadshedding Jul – Dec 2020

No load shedding

Notes: Load shedding assumed to have taken place for the full hours in which it was implemented. Practically, load shedding (and the Stage) may occassionally change/ end during a

particular hour; Total GWh calculated assuming Stage 1 = 1 000 MW, Stage 2 = 2 000 MW, Stage 3 = 3 000 MW, Stage 4 = 4 000 MW, Stage 5 = 5 000 MW, Stage 6 = 6 000 MW

Sources: Eskom Twitter account; Eskom se Push (mobile app); CSIR analysis

July August September

0h00 24h00 0h00 24h00 0h00 24h00

October November December

0h00 24h00 0h00 24h00 0h00 24h00

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 4 000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 000 3 000 3 000 3 000 3 000 3 000 3 000 3 000 3 000 3 000 3 000 3 000 3 000 3 000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 000 2 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 000 2 000

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2 000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 000 2 000

Day 1

Day 31

195

4.5

4.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

0.5

5.5

1.5

2.5

3.0

3.5

7.0

6.0

5.0

6.5

GW

25

20

5

0

30

10

15

35

GW

Demonstration of MLR relative to announced loadshedding

reveals what is achieved from MLR interventions


Stage 4

Stage 1

Stage 2

Stage 3 Stage 5

Stage 6

Residual demand (RHS)

MLR - achieved (LHS)

System demand (RHS)

Example week (30/08/2020 – 05/09/2030)

196Notes:Demand Side Response (DSR) = Manual Load Reduction (MLR) + Interruptible Load Supply (ILS) + Interruption of Supply (IOS); Sources: Eskom; CSIR analysis

100

350

300

0

200

250

400

150

450

50

500

550

8

Apr-20

15

Aug-20

3

Mar-20

6

Oct-20

9 2

May-20

6

111129

4

Jan-20

4

418

15 1345

Feb-20

438

249

10

227

1 6 144

Jun-20

5

Jul-20

34 2

Sep-20

111

Nov-20 Dec-20

148

262

79

13

129111

238

11

50

Monthly demand side response (DSR)[GWh]

1053010

Actual demand side response (DSR) in 2020 reveals how actual MLR

(loadshedding) dominates over other DSR

Manual Load Reduction (MLR) i.e. loadshedding

Interruption of Supply (IOS)

Interruptible load supply (ILS)

200

1 200

600

1 000

0

800

400

1 400

1 600

1 800

Annual DSR [GWh]

111(8%)

1 269(89%)

45(3%)

2020

1 426

197Notes:Demand Side Response (DSR) = Manual Load Reduction (MLR) + Interruptible Load Supply (ILS) + Interruption of Supply (IOS); Sources: Eskom; CSIR analysis

Similarly - actual demand side response (DSR) in 2020 was ~70% of

announced levels of loadshedding

1 000

1 800

0

400

200

600

800

1 200

1 400

1 600

Annual loadshedding (upper limit)[GWh]

332

141

1 192

133

2020

1 798

Stage 4Stage 6

Stage 3Stage 5

Stage 2

Stage 1

800

200

0

400

600

1 000

1 200

1 600

1 400

1 800

2020

Annual DSR [GWh]

1 269

Load Shedding (Manual Load Reduction)








Agenda

199

Lockdown in South Africa had a significant impact on

electricity demand

Notes: Residual is demand excluding variable renewables.

Sources: Eskom; CSIR analysis

200

Up to 11 GW (L5) and 8.5 GW (L4) deviation whilst returning

quickly back to ‘normal’ under Level 2 and Level 1 of lockdown

(& 2nd Level 3)



201

Under Level 5 – Peak demand dropped from expected 31.2 GW to

27.4 GW (-3.8 GW) whilst minimum demand dropped to 13.8 GW

Level 5 (35 days)



202

Under Level 4 of lockdown – Peak demand dropped from

expected 33.6 GW to 30.7 GW (-3.1 GW), morning peak shifted

notably

Level 4 (31 days)



203

Under Level 3 of lockdown – demand returning back to ‘normal’

in scale with loadshedding returning (10-16 Jul., 13-14 Aug.)

Level 3 (80 days)



204

Under Level 2 of lockdown – demand back to

‘normal’ with loadshedding returning

(18-20 Aug., 1-8 Sept.)



Level 2 (35 days)

205

Under Level 1 of lockdown – no loadshedding was seen



Level 2 (35 days)

206

1 500

1 000

0

2 000

3 000

4 000

500

2 500

3 500

4 500

5 000

30 31 33 34

946(22.5%)

35 36 37

693(17.0%)

38 392 41 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 531 5 42

Week number

243 266 189 291510 25

Weekly residual demand [GWh]

4 7 8 11 12 13 14 16 17 40

1 026(24.3%)

19

457(10.7%)

976(24.0%)

1 007(24.5%)

20 21 2322 27 28 32

For 2020 – primarily driven by Covid-19 lockdown, residual

energy demand reduced by ~13 TWh (-5.7%) relative to

expectations at the beginning of 2020

Notes: Week 1 and 53 not full weeks


100

25

50

75

200

225

250

175

150

125

0Forecast

(W1)Forecast

(W53)

13

Annual residual demand[TWh]

Deviation

221

208

-5.7%

Forecast (W53)DeviationForecast (W1)

207

80

0

20

40

60

100

50

10

30

70

90

110

16 183 422322

Plant performance (weekly)

[%]

51 2 24 26 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 43 44 45 46 47 4820 50 51 52 532714

Week number

19159 21 251312111087 1764 49

Eskom fleet performance for 2020 (weekly) reveals overall EAF of 65%

comprising planned maintenance of 11.2%, unplanned of 20.9% & other

at 2.8%

NOTES: EAF - Energy Availability Factor; PCLF - Planned capability Loss Factor; UCLF – Unplanned Capability Loss Factor; OCLF – Other Capability Loss FactorSources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis

EAFOCLF UCLF PCLF

208

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 5500 6000 6500 7000 7500 8000 8500 9000

60

0

55

85

70

90

65

95

80

100

75

52.0%

Hour

EAF (hourly)[%]

79.0%

Eskom fleet EAF for 2020 (hourly) exhibits similar seasonality as in

other years but with notably higher levels at start of Covid-19 lockdown

NOTES: EAF - Energy Availability FactorSources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis

2020: 65.0%

209

1-Jan-18 1-Jul-201-Jan-20

65

1-Jan-19

60

1-Jul-17

80

1-Jul-16

0

70

75

1-Jan-17

95

85

90

1-Jan-16 1-Jan-21

100

1-Jul-18 1-Jul-19

EAF (weekly)[%]

Declining EAF tend continues for the year 2020 to an average EAF 65%

NOTES: EAF - Energy Availability FactorSources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis

2016: 76.4% 2017: 78.7% 2018: 71.9% 2019: 66.9% 2020: 65.0%

Thank you

211

References

Eskom Holdings SOC Limited (2020), Eskom Data Portal, https://www.eskom.co.za/sites/publicdata/

Eskom Holdings SOC Limited. (2020). Integrated Report 2020.

https://www.eskom.co.za/IR2020/Documents/Eskom 2020 integrated report_secured.pdf

Eskom Holdings SOC Limited (2021), Official Twitter Account Announcements, https://twitter.com/Eskom_SA

https://www.eskom.co.za/sites/publicdata/

https://www.eskom.co.za/IR2020/Documents/Eskom%202020%20integrated%20report_secured.pdf

https://twitter.com/Eskom_SA