Statistics: Investment in the Future Meeting of European Directors of Social Statistics Luxembourg, 24 and 25 September 2009 Walter Radermacher, Chief.

Statistics: Investment in the Future

Meeting of European Directors of Social Statistics

Luxembourg, 24 and 25 September 2009

Walter Radermacher, Chief Statistician of the European Union, Director General Eurostat

Walter Radermacher, Eurostat 2

Statistics: a short history in 4 political steps

„Statistics“ is the empirical branch of the science of state (German: Statistik –> Staatswissenschaften)

Official statistics (political/administrative position, working methods) reflect the development of societies in particular the specific relationship between state and citizens

Some factors create different political settings:– Constitution (democratic, authoritative)– Institutional set-up of economy (market, planification)– Society (closed/national, globalised)– Main sectors of economic production– Dynamics of structural change (slow, fast)


Statistic users and producers: Interactions

Users of statistics Producers of statistics

information need

use

knowledge

statistical information

statisticaldata + metadata

worksystem

conducting ofprocesses,provision ofproducts and services

discussion / definition• perception patterns• programmes• products

communication


Information needs:

StatisticsPublic

Opinion

Science

Politics

Institutional setup

How are they defined?


Statistics in a pre-democratic society

State = authority = single constituent = single user Information needs defined by request of king or

alternative authority First Statistical „Authorities“ as institutions Slow change processes (industrialisation) Development of work system with a small scientific

loading Production in special processes; survey (obligatory

response) based on authority of statistical institution Dissemination dominated by the user „State“, general

publications as by-product


Statistics in a “young” democracy / national state

State = authority = premium constituent = premium user Information needs defined by request of government

and/or parliament after consultation of stakeholders Statistical Institutes are “Cinderella” authorities Relatively slow change processes (industrialisation) Development of work system with a higher scientific


response) based on authority of statistical institution Dissemination dominated by the user „State“, general

publications as standard and equivalent product


Statistics in an authoritarian regime

State = authority = single constituent = single user Information needs defined by request of government Statistical Institute with high importance but low

independency Focus on planification Development of work system with a very high scientific


response) based on authority of statistical institution Dissemination oriented to the interests of the regime;

impartiality not an issue


Statistics in a democracy / global info society

State is one user as all others (“citizens first”) Information needs defined in a dynamic and complex

interaction (open platforms etc.) Statistical “Services” Rapid change processes, horizontal issues, cross-

national phenomena Development of work system with a very high scientific

loading Production in integrated processes; surveys limited to

areas without existing data Dissemination = Communication = public good

“Statistics”

Walter Radermacher, Eurostat

The art of finding an adequate working system

Actuality

Comparability

Response burden

Accuracy

Efficiency

Relevance


Convention and Measurement

Statistical information - by definition - is produced based on conventions which manifest an agreement between user and producer regarding the parameters, methods and definitions of the working system

In Official Statistics the convention has to be based on the information needs of the democratic society and it has to be made public (e.g. a UN Standard)

In European Official Statistics the convention is fixed by a legal act / decision

Professional independence in development, production and dissemination of official statistics is embedded in this framework of conventions


European Coal and Steel Community (ECSC) in the early 1950s: The harmonisation of methods was the foundation of European statistics

Rome Treaty on the European Economic Community (EEC) marked the birth of European legislation on statistics, for which the basis is laid in Art. 213 (subsequently Art. 284) => “Gentlemen's agreements“

Since the 1990s, European policies directly based on statistics (e.g. convergence criteria of the Maastricht Treaty )

The NSIs collect and produce harmonised data that are compiled by Eurostat to construct statistics at EU level. The approach continued to be "augmented": the European level was added to the national level

European Statistics


European Statistical System ESS

Regulation (EC) No 223/2009 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 11 March 2009 on European Statistics

Strengthens the cooperation in the ESS, in particular – cost-effectiveness-principle (Art. 2 (f)),

– the European Statistical System Committee (Art. 7),

– collaborative networks (Art. 15.), and a

– European approach to statistics (Art. 16).

Generally, a next phase for official statistics in Europe has been initiated, in which the intentions of the law, namely to put in place a real "system" that makes use of cooperation and standardisation as far as possible while respecting the subsidiarity principle have to be realised.


Elements of the ESS

ESS Committee (ESSC) European Statistical Advisory Committee (ESAC) European Statistical Governance Advisory Board

(ESGAB) Partnership Group Directors Groups Comitology and advisory committees ESSnets Sponsorships DGINS and other conferences


Organisational structure of the ESS

ESSC


Situation of Statistical Offices

Need to reduce costs and increase efficiency Increasing demands for statistical products and

reduction of respondent’s burden Improvements in quality are needed Emerging user needs Progress in information technology


Starting points for a solution: Efficiency!!

Standardisation of processes (CVD-approach) Re-use of available data (administrative sources, online

link to business accounting and other instruments of eGovernment, …)

Common infrastructure (registers, meta-data, geo-spatial information)

Meta-data driven architecture Collaborative networks, common tools and knowledge

sharing Decentralised centralisation of production in shared

webs …


Reengineering of statistical production

1:1 Stovepipes Multiple Source Mix Mode

Survey Table

Survey Table

Survey Table

Survey Table

Survey

Survey

Register

Register

Survey

Data Ware-houses

Macrodata

Access

Microdata

Mesodata


The new architecture: a vision

GIS

Business register

Meta-data

Entry Processing AnalysisPrimary surveys

Administrative data repository

ERP SystemSample Selectio

n

External registers

External registers

Communication

Processes

Infrastructure

Input Output


European systems method of statistics

An integrated model for statistics in Europe: – horizontal integration across statistical domains at the

level of NSIs and Eurostat, – and vertical integration covering both the national and EU

levels. Improving efficiency by elimination of unnecessary

variation and duplication of work Creation of free capacities for upcoming information

needs


Change in the professional paradigm

From "data-collectors" to "re-users of data" Risks

– concepts and definitions may be changed by the owners of the data

– data collections could be discontinued or altered – a loss of control (at least in the perception of statisticians)– higher complexity

Reallocation of R&D in statistics needed


Technical and methodological challenges

Standardisation and integration of formerly separated production processes will demand great efforts and an effective change management.

Stepwise approach and with intensive collaboration Quality assessment + assurance of statistics will

become much more complex The legitimate interest of statistics, i.e. the position vis-à-

vis the owners of re-used data (administrators, regulators or others) has to be reconsidered and strengthened


New ways of communicating with users

The more statistical production is based on complex methodology the more it is necessary to explain the results.

Trust in the statistical system and the perception of the quality of statistical information are closely related.

„Official“ has to become a quality stamp that users can assess against predefined quality guidelines

A basic education in simple statistical elements could help to mitigate a tendency of misunderstanding with the general public (“innumeracy”).

As a consequence, user orientation has to be the guiding principle in communication.

Thank you for your attention!

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http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/

mailto:[email protected]

http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/

Statistics: Investment in the Future Meeting of European Directors of Social Statistics Luxembourg, 24 and 25 September 2009 Walter Radermacher, Chief.

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