Statistics and Risk Management - data.cteunt.orgdata.cteunt.org/content/files/finance/statistics-risk-management/...Statistics and Risk Management Basic Probability Performance Objective:
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After completing this lesson, the student will understand the importance and demonstrate competencies of being able to select the appropriate method and calculate basic probability problems.
Approximate Time: When taught as written, this lesson should take 8-10 days to complete.
Specific Objectives: The student will discuss the importance of probability.
The student will understand some basic terms and concepts of probability. The student will see and understand the basic types of calculations used.
This lesson corresponds with Unit 5 of the Statistics and Risk
TEKS Correlations: This lesson, as published, correlates to the following TEKS for Basic Probability. Any changes/alterations to the activities may result in the elimination of any or all of the TEKS listed. 130.169 (C) (6) (G) … apply the common rules of probability to evaluate business alternatives… InterdisciplinaryTEKS: English: 110.31 (C) (21) (B) … organize information gathered from multiple sources to create a variety of graphics and forms (e.g., notes, learning logs)… 110.31 (C) (22) (B) …evaluate the relevance of information to the topic and determine the reliability, validity, and accuracy of sources (including Internet sources) by examining their authority and objectivity… 110.31 (C) (23) (C) … use graphics and illustrations to help explain concepts where appropriate… 110.31 (C) (23) (D) … use a variety of evaluative tools (e.g., self-made rubrics, peer reviews, teacher and expert evaluations) to examine the quality of the research…
Math: 111.36 (C) (4) (A) … compare theoretical and empirical probability; 111.37. (C) (3) (B) … use probabilities to make and justify decisions about risks in everyday life
Statisticians 15-2041.00 Similar Job Titles: Statistical Analyst, Education Research Analyst, Research Associate, Clinical Biostatistics Director, Clinical Statistics Manager, Institutional Research Director, Program Research Specialist, Research Analyst, Statistical Reporting Analyst Tasks:
Report results of statistical analyses, including information in the form of graphs, charts, and tables.
Process large amounts of data for statistical modeling and graphic analysis, using computers.
Identify relationships and trends in data, as well as any factors that could affect the results of research.
(Soft) Skills: Deductive reasoning; Written comprehension; Problem sensitivity; Originality
http://www.khanacademy.org/#statistics Khan Academy: Basic Probability http://www.khanacademy.org/math/probability/v/basic-probability Bayes’ Theorem Through this paper by Mario F. Triola teachers can gain a deeper understanding of the concept of Bayes’ Theorem that they can pass on to their students. With in-depth definitions and examples, teachers will be able to take what is learned and present it to students on a high school level. http://faculty.washington.edu/tamre/BayesTheorem.pdf Introduction to Statistics http://people.hofstra.edu/Stefan_Waner/tutorialsf2/unit6_2.html Probability and Statistics Vocabulary Words http://online.math.uh.edu/MiddleSchool/Vocabulary/Prob_StatVocab.pdf Basic Probability Concepts This site provides an in-depth explanation of how probability problems are solved when using a die. The detailed example experiment can be taken and used in the classroom to explain die probability problems in an easily comprehended way. http://www.onemathematicalcat.org/Math/Algebra_II_obj/basic_probability.htm
1. Review terms in outline, presentation, and handouts.
2. Locate and evaluate various resources and websites.
3. Have assignments and websites ready.
Learner Preparation: Break the boring barrier. Probability can be fun and definitely interesting. Find examples the student might find interesting; understanding gaming, designing games, evaluating decision on an ongoing basis.
Introduction: STUDENTS will watch the Unit video found here: http:// jukebox.esc13.net/untdeveloper/Videos/Basic%20Probability.mov
STUDENTS will take the practice test and review using the Key, found in Common/Student Documents. EXHIBIT: Excitement for Probability and Learning INTRODUCE: Probability affords the opportunity to improve
decision making and to make persuasive arguments for your decision selection.
ASK: Ask students to express how they arrive at
important decisions like selecting a college or buying a car.
she explains that one of the product lines makes it a prime candidate for a takeover. She knows of several large firms which are publicly examining this company.
B. You again adjust the probability this will be a good investment
C. 80% Probability this is good. D. Known Risk
XX. You Buy • Assessing Knowns
p(Broker is Reliable) = p(YB) =
100%
p(Industry is Sad) = p(NB) = 50%
p(Company is teetering) = p(NB) =
70%
p(Target for Takeover) = p(YB) =
50%
• Formula
XXI.Provide Assignment sheets and
discuss and answer any questions about assignment (In class or take home-Instructor’s Option)