Top Banner
Statistical Sampling Amit Bhola
117

Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

Mar 28, 2019

Download

Documents

duongthien
Welcome message from author
This document is posted to help you gain knowledge. Please leave a comment to let me know what you think about it! Share it to your friends and learn new things together.
Transcript
Page 1: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

Statistical Sampling

Amit Bhola

Page 2: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

2

Source : Internet

There are better ways of Sampling!

Page 3: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

GENERALIZATION

3

Representative SampleFaithful Generalization

Page 4: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

POPULATION

Population is ‘observations’ or ‘measurements’ of property

under consideration

DO not confuse this with No. Of Objects.(Objects may or may not be property under study)

Population

(a) ‘Height’ of Plants in a garden ‘Height’

(b) ‘No. of Plants’ in a garden ‘No. of plants’4

Page 5: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

SAMPLE

A small part of a population

SAMPLING

Process of obtaining samples

STATISTICAL INFERENCE

Process of inferring facts about population from the results

found in samples

Aim of Sampling

5

Page 6: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

POPULATION, SAMPLE & GENERALIZATION

SamplePopulation

6

Sampling Frame : Population accessible for sampling

Page 7: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

SAMPLING METHODS & GENERALIZATION

7

PROBABILITY SAMPLING – Aim of Generalization

- Best effort is made to draw sample representative of

population

NON PROBABILITY SAMPLING – When?

- Generalization is not the aim

- Qualitative study, Pilot study, Demonstration of population trait

- Probability sampling is infeasible

- Inaccessible sampling frame, constraints of time, money, etc.

- Initial study to be followed by probability sampling

Focus

Page 8: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

TYPES OF PROBABILITY SAMPLING

8

Probability Sampling

Simple Random

Systematic Random

Stratified Cluster

Page 9: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

POPULATIONS & SAMPLE SIZE

EXAMPLE Population Sample

Estimate Avg. weight of college students by studying only 100

FiniteN

Finiten

Estimate Head or Tail of a coin tossInfinite Finite

n8

9

Page 10: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

SAMPLING WITH REPLACEMENT

EXAMPLE Replacement

Estimate Avg. weight of college students by studying only 100 different students

No

Estimate how many bolts in a bin of 500 are defective by : picking one bolt checking it returning it …. (repeat say 20 times)

Yes

10

Page 11: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

SAMPLING THEORY

N

n

88-

n

No Replacement Replacement

Practically

N small N large

11

Page 12: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

RANDOMNESS

Being Random means being equally probable

A sample is random if there is no bias in selecting its n objects

Each object has equal chance of getting selected

To effectively represent a population, a sample should be

random

For getting a random sample of size n,

n random nos. should be obtained first

12

Page 13: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

RANDOM NUMBER – MS EXCEL

14

Page 14: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

BLINDING

15

Blinding is done to eliminate psychological bias

• Single Blinding : The participants (i.e. sample) are completely unaware of which group they are in and what intervention they are receiving until conclusion of the study.

• Double Blinding : Neither the participants nor the researcher knows to which group the participant belongs and what intervention the participant is receiving until the conclusion of study

Page 15: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

SIMPLE RANDOM SAMPLING

STEP 1 : Obtain the approx size of population N

STEP 2 : Label the population items 1,2,… N

STEP 3 : Find n random nos.

STEP 4 : Select items labeled as nos. got in [3]

16

Page 16: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

SIMPLE RANDOM SAMPLING

SYSTEMATIC RANDOM SAMPLING

N

Random Derived = pick every (N/n)th element

N

n sections

17

STEP 2 : Label the population items 1,2,… N

Page 17: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

18

PROBLEM WITH SIMPLE / SYSTEMATIC

1. Need availability of complete list of population.

For a large population, this may not be

available!

2. Although highly unlikely, Systematic sampling

carries risk of collecting a poor sample if (A)

there exist some periodic traits in the

population, and at the same time (B) The

period of the trait is a multiple of common

difference!

Sampling Frame Errors…

Page 18: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

19

PROBLEM WITH SYSTEMATIC SAMPLING

Page 19: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

20

PROBLEM WITH SYSTEMATIC SAMPLING

random

Trait period =CD

Page 20: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

21

PROBLEM WITH SYSTEMATIC SAMPLING

random

Trait period = 2*CD

Page 21: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

22

random

Trait period ≠ n*CD

DEALING PERIODICITY PROBLEM – 1

Page 22: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

23

DEALING PERIODICITY PROBLEM – 2

random

Repeated sampling and combining two samples into one single sample

random

Page 23: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

LINEAR SYSTEMATIC RANDOM SAMPLING

N = ?

Random Derived = pick every (N/n)th element

n sections

24

First Random is

Chosen from

1st section

( 1 ~ N/n )

Page 24: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

CIRCULAR SYSTEMATIC RANDOM SAMPLING

26

Random

from

1 ~ N

Derived

till n samples

are obtained

Selection is

done with

continuing

counting at the

end of the list

Page 25: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

TYPES OF PROBABILITY SAMPLING

27

Probability Sampling

Simple Random

Systematic Random

Linear

Repeated

Circular

Stratified Cluster

Page 26: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

PROBLEM WITH SIMPLE / SYSTEMATIC

N

Random Derived

N

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

E.g. :Mon Tue Wed Thu/Fri/Sat

28

Page 27: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

STRATIFIED SAMPLING

N

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

1. Divide N by category of Strata

Strata:

1. Divide N by category of Strata2. Select random samples from each Strata – in same ratio as that Strata

Mon Tue Wed Thu / Fri / Sat

29

Page 28: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

STRATIFIED SAMPLING

30

Proportionate

=>

Representative of Population

Page 29: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

STRATIFIED SAMPLING – ADVANTAGES

1. Ensures the presence of each subgroup within

the sample – better representation of population.

31

Especially useful for population with highly skewed strata eg. A:B::70:30

2. Permits analyses of within-stratum patterns and

separate reporting of the results for each stratum.

Page 30: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

STRATIFIED SAMPLING – DIFFICULTIES

1. Requires information on the proportion of the

total population that belongs to each stratum.

32

2. More expensive, time-consuming, and

complicated than simple random sampling.

3. In order to calculate sampling estimates, at least

two elements must be taken in each stratum.

Page 31: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

DISPROPORTIONATE STRATIFIED SAMPLING

33

Proportionate

=>

Representative of Population – Fine

But considering the cost of the sampling, studies other than the Generalization may separately

be performed at same time

Page 32: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

DISPROPORTIONATE STRATIFIED SAMPLING

34

Dis-Proportionate

to

Represent all strata sufficiently

Example 1 :-Analysis of variation within

strata

Page 33: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

DISPROPORTIONATE STRATIFIED SAMPLING

35

Dis-Proportionate

to

Represent all strata equally

Example 2 :-Analysis of variation among

strata

Page 34: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

DISPROPORTIONATE STRATIFIED SAMPLING

36

Example 3 :-Optimization of Cost and/or

Precision

j 1/j 1200

18 0.055556 299.1371

10 0.1 538.4468

39 0.025641 138.0633

24 0.041667 224.3528

s 1200

4.3 189.7059

6.4 282.3529

9.4 414.7059

7.1 313.2353

Page 35: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

TYPES OF STRATIFIED SAMPLING

37

Stratified Sampling

Proportionate Disproportionate

Within Strata analysis

Among Strata analysis

Optimization

Useful, but not as good

representative of

population

as Proportionate

Page 36: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

CLUSTER SAMPLING

N

STEP 1 : Divide N into homogenous clusters

(Clusters : different from each other but same within)

Eg. Subjects , Districts , Offices-shops-showrooms38

Page 37: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

CLUSTER SAMPLING

N

STEP 2 : Choose some clusters randomly

N

39

Page 38: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

CLUSTER SAMPLING

N

STEP 3 : Recommendation but not must, select

whole of the selected clusters.N

40

(STEP 4) : Sampling within clusters may be done

Multi-Stage Sampling…

Page 39: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

CLUSTER SAMPLING

N

N

Usual motive is to avoid the high cost of a geographical survey

Accuracy is not as good as Stratified, but in comparison to No Survey at all (due to high cost), it is better to do Cluster Sampling

E.g. TRPs , IQS . . .

41

Page 40: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

Section 4

Section 5

Section 3

Section 2Section 1

CLUSTER SAMPLING

Source : Internet

Page 41: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED

1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata of

the population are sampled while in cluster

sampling, only a part of clusters are sampled.

43

2 With stratified sampling, the best survey results

occur when elements within strata are internally

homogeneous. However, with cluster sampling,

the best results occur when elements within

clusters are internally heterogeneous.

Page 42: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

CLUSTER SAMPLING – DISADVANTAGES

44

There is tendency for the clusters to display similar characteristics within themselves – especially so in case the clusters are regional

Statistically, it is the least precise compared to the

Simple, Systematic and Stratified sampling.

Page 43: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

COMPARISON OF SAMPLING TECHNIQUES

EASYEASY

45

Page 44: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

COMPARISON OF SAMPLING TECHNIQUES

>> ACCURATE

> ACCURATE

STRATA has to be known

46

Page 45: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

COMPARISON OF SAMPLING TECHNIQUES

ECONOMICAL

QUICK

47

Page 46: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

SELECTION OF SAMPLING TECHNIQUES

48

Page 47: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

SELECTION OF SAMPLING TECHNIQUES

49

Merit based Sections

Gender based Sections

Page 48: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

SELECTION OF SAMPLING TECHNIQUES

50

Merit based Sections

No particular criteria

Page 49: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

CASE STUDY

THERE ARE AROUND 8,000 FIRMS ACROSS INDIA

PROVIDING A CAB SERVICE.

AN AUDIT IS TO BE PLANNED TO CHECK THE

CONFORMANCE OF TAX PAYMENTS.

51

ZONE OPERATORS

NORTH 4627

SOUTH 3423

CENTRAL 1488

EAST 891

WEST 2396

REVENUE NO. OF FIRMS

< 1 CRORE 4221

1 CR – 5 CR 3217

5 CR – 50 CR 770

50 CR – 250 CR 145

≥ 250 CR 13

Page 50: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

CASE STUDY

52

ZONE OPERATORS

NORTH 4627

SOUTH 3423

CENTRAL 1488

EAST 891

WEST 2396

REVENUE NO. OF FIRMS

< 1 CRORE 4221

1 CR – 5 CR 3217

5 CR – 50 CR 770

50 CR – 250 CR 145

≥ 250 CR 13

HETROGENEOUS WITHIN

GEOGRAPHICAL

MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE ?MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE

HETROGENEOUS WITHIN

SKEWED PROPORTIONS

MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE

PERIODIC TRAITS – NO

SKEWED PROPORTIONS

BUDGET ? / MULTI-STAGE ?

CLUSTERCLUSTER

SYSTEMATI

STRATIFIED STRATIFIED

SIMPLE SIMPLE

Page 51: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

WHAT NEXT ?

53

Page 52: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

PROBABILITY

Trial 1 Trial 2 Trial 3 Trial 4 Trial 5

H T

54

Page 53: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

PROBABILITY

Trial 1 Trial 2 Trial 3 Trial 4 Trial 5

H

T

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

p q = (1-p)

55

Page 54: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

PROBABILITY

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

1 2 3 4 5 656

Page 55: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

PROBABILITY

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

1 2 3 4 5 6

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

p1 p2 p3 p6

p4 p5

p1 + p2 + p3 + p4 + p5 + p6 = 1

57

Page 56: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

PROBABILITY

Lucky No?

Pollution Level?

Height?

Person 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 … …

Response 5 73 46 20 4 97 5 38 13 51 … … …

The response / outcome possible is

NOT fixed / restricted.

Theoretically EVERY real no. has a

Non Zero Probability

58

Page 57: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

PROBABILITY

Person 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 … …

Response 5 73 46 20 4 97 5 38 13 51 … … …

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

59

Page 58: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

PROBABILITY

Person 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 … …

Response 5 73 46 20 4 97 5 38 13 51 … … …

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

HISTOGRAMS

TELL

PROBABILITY

60

Page 59: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

WHAT NEXT ?

61

Page 60: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

PROBABILITY

BINOMIAL MULTINOMIAL CONTINUOUS

p p1 p (R1) = f(R1)

q=1-p p2 ... p (R2) = f(R2) …

p+q=1 p1+p2+p3+...+pn= 1 ∑ p (all R) = 162

Page 61: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

PROBABILITY

BINOMIAL MULTINOMIAL CONTINUOUS

p p1 p (R1)

q=1-p p2 ... p (R2) …

p+q=1 p1+p2+p3+...+pn= 1 ∑ p (all R) = 1

RARE

AND

COMPLEX

OUT

OF

SCOPE

Formulae 1 Formulae 2

63

Page 62: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

HISTOGRAMS

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

-4 6 15 24 33 42 51 60 69 78 87 96

-8 - 1 1 - 10 10 - 19 19 - 28 28 - 37 37 - 46 46 - 55 55 - 64 64 - 73 73 - 82 82 - 91 91 - 100

64

Page 63: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

PROBABILITY (DENSITY) FUNCTION

0

0.002

0.004

0.006

0.008

0.01

0.012

0.014

0.016

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

-4 6 15 24 33 42 51 60 69 78 87 96

-8 - 1 1 - 10 10 - 19 19 - 28 28 - 37 37 - 46 46 - 55 55 - 64 64 - 73 73 - 82 82 - 91 91 - 100

65

Page 64: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

PROBABILITY FUNCTION

0

0.002

0.004

0.006

0.008

0.01

0.012

0.014

0.016

-8 1 10 19 28 37 46 55 64 73 82 91 100

66

Page 65: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

CUMULATIVE DENSITY FUNCTION

0

0.002

0.004

0.006

0.008

0.01

0.012

0.014

0.016

-4-8 - 1

61 - 10

1510 - 19

2419 - 28

3328 - 37

4237 - 46

5146 - 55

6055 - 64

6964 - 73

7873 - 82

8782 - 91

9691 - 100

67

Page 66: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

P.D.F. AS PROBABILITY INDICATOR

0

0.002

0.004

0.006

0.008

0.01

0.012

0.014

0.016

-4-8 - 1

61 - 10

1510 - 19

2419 - 28

3328 - 37

4237 - 46

5146 - 55

6055 - 64

6964 - 73

7873 - 82

8782 - 91

9691 - 100

More Area = More Probability

68

Page 67: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

RANGE PROBABILITY FROM C.D.F.

0

0.002

0.004

0.006

0.008

0.01

0.012

0.014

0.016

-4-8 - 1

61 - 10

1510 - 19

2419 - 28

3328 - 37

4237 - 46

5146 - 55

6055 - 64

6964 - 73

7873 - 82

8782 - 91

9691 - 100

16%

84%

More Area = More Probability

69

Page 68: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

RANGE PROBABILITY FROM C.D.F.

0

0.002

0.004

0.006

0.008

0.01

0.012

0.014

0.016

-4-8 - 1

61 - 10

1510 - 19

2419 - 28

3328 - 37

4237 - 46

5146 - 55

6055 - 64

6964 - 73

7873 - 82

8782 - 91

9691 - 100

60% 40%

70

It means 60% of values are likely to be < 51

Page 69: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

RANGE PROBABILITY FROM C.D.F.

0

0.002

0.004

0.006

0.008

0.01

0.012

0.014

0.016

-4-8 - 1

61 - 10

1510 - 19

2419 - 28

3328 - 37

4237 - 46

5146 - 55

6055 - 64

6964 - 73

7873 - 82

8782 - 91

9691 - 100

87%

13%

71

It means 13% of values are likely to be > 78

Page 70: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

RANGE PROBABILITY FROM C.D.F.

0

0.002

0.004

0.006

0.008

0.01

0.012

0.014

0.016

-4-8 -1

61 -10

1510 -19

2419 -28

3328 -37

4237 -46

5146 -55

6055 -64

6964 -73

7873 -82

8782 -91

9691 -100

87% - 16%= 71%

0

0.002

0.004

0.006

0.008

0.01

0.012

0.014

0.016

-4-8 -1

61 -10

1510 -19

2419 -28

3328 -37

4237 -46

5146 -55

6055 -64

6964 -73

7873 -82

8782 -91

9691 -100

87% - 60%

27%

72

It means 27% of values are likely to be between 51 and 78

Page 71: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

NORMAL DISTRIBUTION

73

It means:-

Knowing μ and σ of a normally distributed variable, one can determine how much probable is it to lie between a range.

Most common

Page 72: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

MEAN AND STANDARD DEVIATION

-0.005

0

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

0.025

-100 -90 -80 -70 -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120

μ = 40σ = 20

74

Page 73: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

MEAN AND STANDARD DEVIATION

-0.005

0

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

0.025

-100 -90 -80 -70 -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120

-0.005

0

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

0.025

-100 -90 -80 -70 -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120

μ = 40σ = 20 vs. 30

More σ =>Wider range of values are more probable

σ = 20

σ = 30

75

Page 74: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

AREA COVERED BETWEEN STD DEV

-0.005

0

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

0.025

-100 -90 -80 -70 -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120

68.27%

± σ

76

σ σ

Page 75: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

-0.005

0

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

0.025

-100 -90 -80 -70 -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120

68.27%

AREA COVERED BETWEEN STD DEV

-0.005

0

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

0.025

-100 -90 -80 -70 -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

68.27%

± σ

77

σ σ

Page 76: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

AREA COVERED BETWEEN STD DEV

± σ

± 2σ

± 3σ± 1.96σ

78

1.96σ

1.96σ

Page 77: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

AREA COVERED BETWEEN STD DEV

± σ

± 2σ

± 3σ± 2.58σ

79

2.58σ

2.58σ

Page 78: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

SAMPLING THEORY

N

n

88-

n

No Replacement Replacement

Practically

N small N large

80

Page 79: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

SAMPLING INFERENCE - MEAN

N

n

88-

n

μ

No Replacement Replacement

μ

μ* μ*

μ* = μ

Sample mean = Population mean

With some error81

Page 80: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

SAMPLING INFERENCE - MEAN

82

I sampled

the ABC

tax

payments. I

conclude

that Avg.

tax as 1.2

MRs

How

much

sure are

you

about

your

inference

?

Page 81: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

NORMAL DISTRIBUTION

83

It means:-

Knowing μ and σ of a normally distributed variable, one can determine how much probable is it to lie between a range.

Page 82: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

SAMPLING INFERENCE – MEAN’s DISTRIBU.

N

n

88-

n

μ

No Replacement Replacement

μ

μ* μ*

84

Sampling Sampling 1 Sampling 2 Sampling 3 Sampling 4 …

Sample size n (say 100) n n n …

Sample mean μ*

μ1 μ2 μ3 μ4 …

μ* = sample mean is normally distributed N(μ*, σ*)

Even if

population is

not normal

!

Page 83: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

NORMAL DISTRIBUTION

85

It means:-

Knowing μ and σ of a normally distributed variable, one can determine how much probable is it to lie between a range.

Page 84: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

MARGIN OF ERROR

μ* ± 1.96σ*

This value is Margin of error at 95% confidence

σ* has special calculation86

Page 85: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

MARGIN OF ERROR - CALCULATION

N

n

88-

n

σ

No Replacement Replacement

σ

σσ * = ----

√n

σ √(N-n)

σ * = ---------√n (N-1)

87

Page 86: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

MARGIN OF ERROR - CALCULATION

N

n

88-

n

σ

No Replacement Replacement

σ

1.96 σE = ---------

√n

1.96σ √(N-n)

E = ---------√n (N-1)

88

μ* ± 1.96σ*

Page 87: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

POPULATION STD DEV

N

n

88-

n

σ

No Replacement Replacement

σ

Sample σs ≈ Population σ

If n ≥ 100

σs σs

89

Page 88: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

SAMPLING INFERENCE - MEAN

90

I sampled

240 firms

so n=240.

Also

240>100,

so ‘σ’ can be taken =

σs

1.96 σE = ---------

√n

Page 89: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

SAMPLING INFERENCE - MEAN

91

In my

sample

σs came

out to be

0.8 MRs

σs ≈ σ ≈

0.8

1.96 σE = ---------

√n

Page 90: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

SAMPLING INFERENCE - MEAN

92

So I can

say that

Margin of

Error = ± E

= ± 1.96*(0.8) /

(240^0.5)

≈ 0.1

1.96 σE = ---------

√n

Page 91: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

SAMPLING INFERENCE - MEAN

93

Thus tax

Avg.

=1.2±E

=1.2±0.1

It lies b/w

1.1 to 1.3

MRs

μ* ± 1.96σ*

Always

?

Page 92: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

SAMPLING INFERENCE - MEAN

94

No,

Not always,

but (almost)

95% times

you sample

n=240, it

would lie b/w

1.1 to 1.3

MRs

μ* ± 1.96σ*

So, tax

would lie

b/w 1.1

~ 1.3

95% of

times..

Page 93: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

SAMPLING INFERENCE - MEAN

95

Strictly

speaking -

No, Not the

tax.

We are

talking about

a particular

sample

statistic

here…

μ* ± 1.96σ*

Page 94: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

SAMPLING INFERENCE - MEAN

96

We are

discussing

the statistic

“AVG.”

So there’s

95%

chance that

sample

AVG. is

1.1~1.3

μ* ± 1.96σ*

Page 95: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

SAMPLING INFERENCE - MEAN

97

If you ask me

99% confidence

level, my range

would be

E= ± 2.58*(0.8)

/ (240^0.5)

Avg.

=1.2 ± 0.133

b/w

1.067 to 1.333

μ* ± 2.58σ*

How to

further

reduce

the

margin

of Error

E ?

Page 96: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

SAMPLE SIZE - CALCULATION

N

n

88-

n

σ

No Replacement Replacement

σ

98

21.96 σ

n = ---------

E

1.96 σE = ---------

√n

1.96σ √(N-n)

E = ---------√n (N-1)

Calculate n using the desired E

Page 97: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

SAMPLE SIZE - CALCULATION

N

n

88-

n

σ

No Replacement Replacement

σ

21.96 σ

n = ---------E

1.96σ √(N-n)

E = ---------√n (N-1)

N large

99

Page 98: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

MARGIN OF ERROR - BINOMIAL

N

n

88-

n

p

No Replacement Replacement

p

√pqσ* = -----

√n

√pq (N-n)σ* = ------------

√n (N-1)

100

Page 99: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

MARGIN OF ERROR - BINOMIAL

N

n

88-

n

p

No Replacement Replacement

p

1.96 √pqE = ----------

√n

1.96 √pq (N-n)

E= ----------------√n (N-1)

101

Page 100: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

SAMPLE SIZE - BINOMIAL

N

n

88-

n

p

No Replacement Replacement

p

1.96 √pqE = ----------

√n

1.96 √pq (N-n)

E= ----------------√n (N-1)

102

21.96 √pq

n = ---------

E

Calculate n using the desired E

Page 101: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

SAMPLE SIZE - BINOMIAL

88-

n

p

103

21.96 √pq

n = ---------

E

p & q are expected

ideal population

proportions here

When not known

beforehand, assumed

p = q = 0.5

Page 102: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

SAMPLE SIZE - BINOMIAL

88-

n

p

104

21.96 √pq

n = ---------

E

Note that in case of

proportions, the E is

also in terms of

proportions, e.g. 5%

So, in the formula it is

entered in %age

e.g. 0.05 for ±5% error

Page 103: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

SAMPLE SIZE - BINOMIAL

88-

n

p

105

n = 384

So, example

calculation for E=5%

and unknown p & q,

& 95% confidence

21.96 √0.5*0.5

n = --------------

0.05

21.96 √0.5*0.5

n = --------------

E

Page 104: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

CAUTION ! APPLICABILITY

106

μ* ± 1.96σ*

106

Sampling Sampling 1 Sampling 2 Sampling 3 Sampling 4 …

Sample size n (say 100) n n n …

Sample mean μ*

μ1 μ2 μ3 μ4 …

μ* = sample mean is normally distributed N(μ*, σ*)

The Formulas of Margin of Error E studied are valid only for the sampling statistic = AVERAGE μ* And not for other sampling statistics like STD DEV. etc.

Page 105: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

REPORTING STATISTICS

PARAMETER MENTIONED IN SAMPLING REPORT

CHECK

Basic Assumptions about Population

Sampling Technique used

Sample Size

Sampling Inference (outcome, eg. μ)

Margin of Error (± E)

Confidence Level (eg. 95%)

Page 106: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

WHAT NEXT ?

108

Page 107: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

HISTOGRAMS – BIN SIZE

39.185 39.147 39.229 39.205 39.246

39.257 39.304 39.278 39 39.17

39.243 39.309 39.264 39.315 39.203

39.287 39.185 39.276 39.232 39.387

39.253 39.251 39.345 39.353 39.255

39.292 39.251 39.177 39.28 39.391

39.245 39.197 39.148 39.293 39.255

39.18 39.072 39.317 39.177 39.119

39.269 39.071 39.236 39.351 39.294

39.271 39.27 39.39 39.12 39.401

38.58 0

38.75 0

38.92 0

39.08 3

39.25 19

39.42 28

0

10

20

30

38.58 38.75 38.92 39.08 39.25 39.42

109

Page 108: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

HISTOGRAMS – BIN SIZE

38.58 0

38.75 0

38.92 0

39.08 3

39.25 19

39.42 28

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

38.

58

38.

75

38.

92

39.

08

39.

25

39.

42

38.58 0

38.72 0

38.86 0

39.00 0

39.14 5

39.28 28

39.42 17

38.58 0

38.69 0

38.79 0

38.90 0

39.00 0

39.10 3

39.21 13

39.31 25

39.42 9

38.58 0

38.67 0

38.75 0

38.83 0

38.92 0

39.00 0

39.08 3

39.17 4

39.25 15

39.33 21

39.42 7

110

Page 109: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

HISTOGRAMS – BIN SIZE

0

10

20

303

8.5

8

38.

75

38.

92

39.

08

39.

25

39.

42

0

10

20

30

38.

58

38.

72

38.

86

39.

00

39.

14

39.

28

39.

42

05

1015202530

0

5

10

15

20

25

Thumb Rule

Bin Size = √n

111

Page 110: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

HISTOGRAMS – FIT NORMAL DISTRIBUTION

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

38.58 38.75 38.92 39.08 39.25 39.42

Find

Mean & Std Dev.

112

Page 111: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

WHAT NEXT ?

113

Page 112: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

MISUSE OF STATISTICS – CASE STUDY 1

114

I II III IV

x y x y x y x y

10 8.04 10 9.14 10 7.46 8 6.58

8 6.95 8 8.14 8 6.77 8 5.76

13 7.58 13 8.74 13 12.74 8 7.71

9 8.81 9 8.77 9 7.11 8 8.84

11 8.33 11 9.26 11 7.81 8 8.47

14 9.96 14 8.1 14 8.84 8 7.04

6 7.24 6 6.13 6 6.08 8 5.25

4 4.26 4 3.1 4 5.39 19 12.5

12 10.84 12 9.13 12 8.15 8 5.56

7 4.82 7 7.26 7 6.42 8 7.91

5 5.68 5 4.74 5 5.73 8 6.89

Mean 9 7.500909 9 7.500909 9 7.5 9 7.500909

Std Dev 3.316625 2.031568 3.316625 2.031657 3.316625 2.030424 3.316625 2.030579

Covar(x,y) 5.000909091 5 4.997272727 4.999090909

Page 113: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

MISUSE OF STATISTICS – CASE STUDY 1

115

y = 0.5001x + 3.0001

0

5

10

15

0 5 10 15

y = 0.5x + 3.0009

0

5

10

15

0 5 10 15

y = 0.4997x + 3.0025

0

5

10

15

0 5 10 15

y = 0.4999x + 3.0017

0

5

10

15

0 5 10 15 20

Page 114: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

WHAT NEXT ?

116

Page 115: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

MISUSE OF STATISTICS – CASE STUDY 2

117

A B C D E F G H

Jan 8 2 7 9 8 2 8 5

Feb 2 3 7 4 9 1 9 9

Mar 8 3 8 8 1 8 2 3

Apr 9 3 9 3 7 2 9 6

May 3 4 8 7 2 2 9 8

Jun 9 2 8 3 9 2 9 7

Jul 2 3 9 2 3 1 8 2

Aug 8 3 7 2 8 9 3 6

Sep 3 4 8 4 6 2 9 7

Oct 2 2 8 2 7 1 9 7

Nov 9 2 9 5 8 1 8 6

Dec 2 3 7 3 8 2 9 4

A B C D E F G H

Average 5.42 2.83 7.92 4.33 6.33 2.75 7.67 5.83

0

5

10

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

F

B

Page 116: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

MISUSE OF STATISTICS – CASE STUDY 3

118

EXCELLENTVERY

GOODGOOD AVERAGE POOR

+ + + 0 - - -

Page 117: Statistical Sampling - iCEDiced.cag.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2016-17/NTP 01/ICED_Statistical... · CLUSTER SAMPLING vs. STRATIFIED 1. In stratified random sampling, all the strata

Thanks

119