OpenRiver OpenRiver Student Research and Creative Projects 2015-2016 Grants & Sponsored Projects 9-1-2015 Statistical Analysis and Forecasting Solar Radiation in Arizona Statistical Analysis and Forecasting Solar Radiation in Arizona Yao Li Winona State University Paige Ng Winona State University Follow this and additional works at: https://openriver.winona.edu/studentgrants2016 Recommended Citation Recommended Citation Li, Yao and Ng, Paige, "Statistical Analysis and Forecasting Solar Radiation in Arizona" (2015). Student Research and Creative Projects 2015-2016. 9. https://openriver.winona.edu/studentgrants2016/9 This Grant is brought to you for free and open access by the Grants & Sponsored Projects at OpenRiver. It has been accepted for inclusion in Student Research and Creative Projects 2015-2016 by an authorized administrator of OpenRiver. For more information, please contact [email protected].
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OpenRiver OpenRiver
Student Research and Creative Projects 2015-2016 Grants & Sponsored Projects
9-1-2015
Statistical Analysis and Forecasting Solar Radiation in Arizona Statistical Analysis and Forecasting Solar Radiation in Arizona
Yao Li Winona State University
Paige Ng Winona State University
Follow this and additional works at: https://openriver.winona.edu/studentgrants2016
Recommended Citation Recommended Citation Li, Yao and Ng, Paige, "Statistical Analysis and Forecasting Solar Radiation in Arizona" (2015). Student Research and Creative Projects 2015-2016. 9. https://openriver.winona.edu/studentgrants2016/9
This Grant is brought to you for free and open access by the Grants & Sponsored Projects at OpenRiver. It has been accepted for inclusion in Student Research and Creative Projects 2015-2016 by an authorized administrator of OpenRiver. For more information, please contact [email protected].
Statistical Analysis and Forecasting Solar Radiation in Arizona
• Introduction• What is The Arizona Meteorological Network (AZMET)?• Map of Sensor Stations• Data Variables • Problems of Data Mining• OLS regression with lagged variables• Seasonal Decomposition• Exceedance Probabilities• Further Research Possibilities
Yao Li and Paige Ng Statistical Analysis and Forecasting Solar Radiation in Arizona WINONA STATE UNIVERSITY
Outline
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Historic and typical weather and solar radiation data for weather stations across different places is typically used to as inputs for solar models.
• Goal: Determine profitable solar panel sites in Arizona
• Most essential variable Solar Insulation: a measure of solar radiation energy received on a given surface area and recorded during a given time
• High • Stable
Introduction
Yao Li and Paige Ng Statistical Analysis and Forecasting Solar Radiation in Arizona WINONA STATE UNIVERSITY
38 weather stations
• 28 stations are active
• 10 stations are deactivated
Arizona Meteorological Network
Yao Li and Paige Ng Statistical Analysis and Forecasting Solar Radiation in Arizona WINONA STATE UNIVERSITY
http://cals.arizona.edu/azmet/az-data.htm
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Run by University of Arizona’s College of Agriculture. Year Northern mountainous: cold winters and mild summers Desert/plateaus: mild winters and hot summers
Weather-based Information
Data Variable Unit
Year
Day of Year (DOY)
Air Temperature DegC
Relative Humidity %
Solar Radiation MJ/Sq M
Precipitation MM
Soil Temperature DegC
Wind Speed M/S
Wind Vector Magnitude M/S
Wind Vector Direction Deg
Wind Direction Standard Deviation Deg
Heat Units 30/12.8 C
Yao Li and Paige Ng Statistical Analysis and Forecasting Solar Radiation in Arizona WINONA STATE UNIVERSITY
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Historic and typical weather and solar radiation data for weather stations across different places is typically used to as inputs for solar models.
• Missing data
• Mislabeled data
• Variables change
Problems of Data Mining
Yao Li and Paige Ng Statistical Analysis and Forecasting Solar Radiation in Arizona WINONA STATE UNIVERSITY