Jan 02, 2016
The lunar cycle is divided into 4
phases – quarters, they were
meaningful in rural habits and
culture: the peasants sowed and
harvested taking into consideration
the phase of the moon and
following Barbanera’s almanack
advice
Barbanera was an astronomer, hermit, and philosopher and lived in Foligno.
He started studying the elements of the sky, focusing his attention on the moon
and its phases.
He built up an almanack where he forecast the weather for the whole year
and gave peasants advice how to do their work in the field taking into consideration
the 4 phases of the moon.
These forecasts were sent out in the town by his friend and follower Silvano, who contributed to making him famous.
Since 1762 the almanac has
been giving the weather forecast
for the whole year according to
the quartes of the moon
The old almanac The modern almanac
Let’s compare then, the forecasts of the almanack and the actual performance of
the Quintana
The Quintana is a historical commemoration dating back to 1600. The
objective of the competition is to pierce the rings and to score 90 points in the shortest time. The three rings, whose size changes in diameter after every
round, hang in the right hand of the God, a wooden statue located in the centre of
the track. During the race competition which takes place at “Campo De Li Giochi” the knights of the ten words compete for the Palio (a silk banner).The eight shaped
track of the “Campo De Li Giochi” where
the competition takes place
When it is sunny the tournament takes place regularly
When it is changeable it may take place or may be postponed
Whe it is rainy, it is postponed by a week, if the bad weather continues it is definetely cancelled.
Correct forecast
Value = 1
• sunny /tournament takes place
• rainy / tournament postponed
• changeable
Wrong forecast
Value = 0
• sunny / tournament postponed
• rainy / tournament takes place
The total number of correct forecasts is 3333
The number of the wrong forecasts is 88
The percentage of reliability 33/4133/41 = around 80 %80 %
RELIABILITY OF BARBANERA'S FORECASTS"VARIABLE" ALWAYS CORRECT
80%
20%
1 = PREVISIONI ESATTECOMPRESI I VARIABILI
0 = PREVISIONI ERRATE
RELIABILITY OF BARBANERA'S FORECASTS "VARIABLE" EXCLUDED
65%
35%
1 = PREVISIONI ESATTE ESCLUSIVARIABILI0 = PREVISIONI ERRATE