State stability

N. Koepke & J. Baten, The biological standards of living in Europe during the last two millennia, European Review of Economic History 9, 2005, 76

State stability

Climate

Population growth

Disease environment

City number & size

Recorded population

Other exogenous factors

(? Cultural features not directly related to state stability)

(? Economic performance not directly related to state stability or climate)

Factors that are correlated with or obscure (or merely exaggerate?) change in population size

C. Chu & R. Lee, Famine, revolt, and the dynastic cycle: population dynamics in historic China, Journal of Population Economics 7, 1994, 354

P. Turchin, Historical dynamics: why states rise and fall, Princeton 2003, 165

Actual population size ?

Apparent population size

S. Alcock, Graecia Capta: The landscapes of Roman Greece, Cambridge 1993, 42-4

K. Sbonias, Investigating the interface between regional survey, historical demography and paleodemography, in J. Bintliff & K. Sbonias (eds), Reconstructing past population trends in Mediterranean Europe (3000 BC – AD 1800), Oxford 1999, 225

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

Select Roman census figures, 279 BCE-47 CE(raw data, in 1,000)

G. G. Aperghis, The Seleukid royal economy, Cambridge 2004, 56-7

E. Lo Cascio & P. Malanima, Cycles and stability: Italian population before the Demographic Transition (225 B.C. – A.D. 1900), Rivista di Storia Economica 21, 2005