State of the Planet Do you expect to use modeling in your life/career? A. Yes B. No C. Don’t know
Dec 21, 2015
State of the Planet
Do you expect to use modeling in your life/career?
A. YesB. NoC. Don’t know
What is a Model?
From Andy Ruina, TAM, Cornell
System
Model
Model’smanipulation
rules
System
Represent’n Represent’nbehavior
System behavior
System’s
workings
Translate betweensystem and model
Limits to Growth Model
Model’smanipulation
rules
System
Repres’n Repres’nbehavior
System behavior
System’s
workings
Translate betweensystem and model
Humans on the Planet Population Resources Industrial output Pollution, etc
Limits to Growth Model
Model’smanipulation
rules
System
Repres’n Repres’nbehavior
System behavior
System’s
workings
Translate betweensystem and model
Humans on the Planet Population Resources Industrial output Pollution, etc
NumbersEquations representing interactions
Graphs of how the numbers change over time
Disease Model
Model’smanipulation
rules
System
Repres’n Repres’nbehavior
System behavior
System’s
workings
Translate betweensystem and model
Spread of infectious disease through the population
Disease Model
Model’smanipulation
rules
System
Repres’n Repres’nbehavior
System behavior
System’s
workings
Translate betweensystem and model
Spread of infectious disease through the population
Equations to represent - transmission rates- contact rates,- vaccination efficiency…
Disease Model
Model’smanipulation
rules
System
Repres’n Repres’nbehavior
System behavior
System’s
workings
Translate betweensystem and model
Spread of infectious disease through the population
Equations to represent - transmission rates- contact rates,- vaccination efficiency…
Answer questions like:How much of the population do we have to vaccinate to prevent an epidemic?
Who Can Model?
You don’t have to be a mathematician to use quantitative models!
Just make friends with a mathematician& learn enough to communicate with them…
Take:Multivariable Calculus &Linear Algebra &Modeling, Dynamical Systems or Differential Eq’s
Great Modeling Course at Cornell
BIOEE/MATH 362 Dynamic Models in
Biology
Steve EllnerJohn Guckenheimer
What Can a Novelist Do?
Model’smanipulation
rules
System
Repres’n Repres’nbehavior
System behavior
System’s
workings
Translate betweensystem and model
The Sunderban Islands Poverty and hunger Conservation Mangroves Cyclones
What Can a Novelist Do?
Fiction can help people to inhabit a place in their imaginations. To see the ways in which the lives of the animals, the lives of the trees, and the lives of the human beings link together. -Amitav Ghosh on “The Hungry Tide”
Model’smanipulation
rules
System
Repres’n Repres’nbehavior
System behavior
System’s
workings
Translate betweensystem and model
The Sunderban Islands Poverty and hunger Conservation Mangrove forests Cyclones
Novel “The Hungry Tide” by Amitav Ghosh
Limits to Growth Model
Model’smanipulation
rules
System
Repres’n Repres’nbehavior
System behavior
System’s
workings
Translate betweensystem and model
Humans on the Planet Population Resources Industrial output Pollution, etc
NumbersEquations representing interactions
Graphs of how the numbers change over time
Limits to Growth Model
Model’smanipulation
rules
System
Repres’n Repres’nbehavior
System behavior
System’s
workings
Translate betweensystem and model
Humans on the Planet Population Resources Industrial output Pollution, etc
NumbersEquations representing interactions
Graphs of how the numbers change over time
Huge, interdisciplinary project!
Limits to Growth Model
Model’smanipulation
rules
System
Repres’n Repres’nbehavior
System behavior
System’s
workings
Translate betweensystem and model
Humans on the Planet Population Resources Industrial output Pollution, etc
NumbersEquations representing interactions
Graphs of how the numbers change over time
Huge, interdisciplinary project!Model scenarios are input here
Model Scenarios: Pathways into Unknown
1. Continuation of 20th century policies
Model Scenarios: Pathways into Unknown
1. Continuation of 20th century policies2. Double non-renewable resources3. (2) + Pollution control technology4. (3) + land yield technology5. (4) + land erosion technology6. (5) + resource efficient technology
Model Scenarios: Pathways into Unknown
1. Continuation of 20th century policies2. Double non-renewable resources3. (2) + pollution control technology4. (3) + land yield technology5. (4) + land erosion technology6. (5) + resource efficient technology7. (2) + population control8. (7) + industrial output control
Model Scenarios: Pathways into Unknown
1. Continuation of 20th century policies2. Double non-renewable resources3. (2) + pollution control technology4. (3) + land yield technology5. (4) + land erosion technology6. (5) + resource efficient technology7. (2) + population control8. (7) + industrial output control9. Everything: (6)+(8)
Model Scenarios: Pathways into Unknown
1. Continuation of 20th century policies2. Double non-renewable resources3. (2) + pollution control technology4. (3) + land yield technology5. (4) + land erosion technology6. (5) + resource efficient technology7. (2) + population control8. (7) + industrial output control9. Everything: (6)+(8) 10. (9) adopted 20 years earlier.
Model Scenarios: Pathways into Unknown
1. Continuation of 20th century policies
Pathway 2 into the Unknown:
What will happen under Scenario 2? Double non-renewable resources
A. Sustainable populationB. Exhausted resourcesC. High pollutionD. Food scarcityE. Industry crash
Pathway 6 into the Unknown:
What will happen under Scenario 6? Double non-renewable resources, with
pollution control, land yield technology, land erosion technology, and resource efficient technology
A. Sustainable populationB. Exhausted resourcesC. High pollutionD. Food scarcityE. Industry crash
Pathway 8 into the Unknown:
What will happen under Scenario 8? Double non-renewable resources with
population control and industrial output control
A. Sustainable populationB. Exhausted resourcesC. High pollutionD. Food scarcityE. Industry crash
Pathway 9 into the Unknown:
What will happen under Scenario 9? Everything: Double the non-renewable
resources, pollution control, land yield, land erosion, and resource efficient technology, population and industrial output control
A. Sustainable populationB. Exhausted resourcesC. High pollutionD. Food scarcityE. Industry crash
Model Scenarios: A Novelist’s View
“It is when we think of the world that … indifference might bring into being, that we recognize the urgency of remembering the stories we have not yet written.”
-Amitav Ghosh
Intergov. Panel on Climate Change
2500+ scientific expert reviewers800+ contributing authors and
450+ lead authors from130+ countries6 years work
4 volumes1 Report
Intergov. Panel on Climate Change
2500+ scientific expert reviewers800+ contributing authors and
450+ lead authors from130+ countries6 years work
4 volumes1 Report
Fourth Assessment Report: “Climate Change 2007”
2500+ scientific expert reviewers800+ contributing authors and
450+ lead authors from130+ countries6 years work
4 volumes1 Report
Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007
Third Assessment Report (TAR) was 2001
Intergov. Panel on Climate Change
IPCC
Group I: The Physical Science BasisWe read the summary.Full report due out soon.
Group II: Impacts, Adaptation, VulnerabilityIncludes: Food, Water, Ecosystems, Industry, Health, Global and Regional.
Group III: Mitigation of Climate ChangeIncludes: Energy, Waste, Transport, Industry, Agriculture, Forestry, etc.
IV: Synthesis Report
IPCC Summary for Policy Makers
A major advance of this assessment of climate change projections … is the large number of simulations available from a broader range of models.
IPCC Summary for Policy Makers
A major advance of this assessment of climate change projections … is the large number of simulations available from a broader range of models.
Model experiments show that…
Best-estimate projections from models indicate…
Based on a range of models, it is likely that…
IPCC Summary for Policy Makers
A major advance of this assessment of climate change projections … is the large number of simulations available from a broader range of models.
Model experiments show that…
Best-estimate projections from models indicate…
Based on a range of models, it is likely that…
Analysis of climate models together with constraints from observations … provides increased confidence in the understanding of the climate system response to radiative forcing.
Radiative Forcing
IPCC Summary: The Language
What does “very likely” mean? A. > 95% probability of occurrenceB. > 90% probability of occurrenceC. > 75% probability of occurrenceD. > 66% probability of occurrenceE. > 50% probability of occurrence
Read the Footnotes…
Virtually certain > 99% probability Extremely likely > 95% Very likely > 90% Likely > 66% More likely than not > 50% Unlikely < 33% Very unlikely < 10% Extremely unlikely < 5%
Read the Footnotes…
Virtually certain > 99% probability Extremely likely > 95% Very likely > 90% Likely > 66% More likely than not > 50% Unlikely < 33% Very unlikely < 10% Extremely unlikely < 5%
To learn how this is done, take a statistics class that includes “Hypothesis Testing”
How Bad is “Likely”?
“Likely” > 66% chance of happening
Will you move?
How Bad is “Likely”?
“Likely” > 66% chance of happening
Will you move? How about now?
Climate Change Models
Model’smanipulation
rules
System
Repres’n Repres’nbehavior
System behavior
System’s
workings
Translate betweensystem and model
Climate: Atmosphere Land Sea Ice Ocean
Climate Change Models
The planet is divided into a grid e.g. by longitude and latitude
Climate Change Models
The grid is thickened to represent different layers of the atmosphere
Climate Change Models
On each piece of the grid, changes are calculated for a small time step
Climate Change Models
The pieces are put back together and updated by their effect on each other
Climate Change Models
The process is repeated to cover centuries
Model Scenarios: Pathways into Unknown
A1. Convergent world. Rapid economic growth. A1FI: fossil intensive, A1T: non-fossil energy sources A1B: balance across all sources
A2. Heterogeneous world. Self-reliance and preservation of local identities. Technological change is slow.
B1. Convergent world, with clean and resource efficient technologies. Global solutions to sustainability.
B2. Heterogeneous world. Emphasis on local solutions to sustainability. Technology is diverse and slow.
Model Scenarios: Pathways into Unknown
A1B: Convergent Balanced fuels
A2. Heterogeneous Slow Tech.
B1. Convergent Clean Tech.
Global Sust.
Surface WarmingPredictions
Model Scenarios: Pathways into Unknown
B1. Convergent world, clean technology, global sust. solutions
How can you help?Skills needed:MathStatisticsComputingChemistryPhysicsBiologyWater AgricultureEconomicsVisualizationCommunicationArtsEducationPolicy, Law, Sociology, Engineering, Architecture, Creativity…
How can you help?Skills needed:MathStatisticsComputingChemistryPhysicsBiologyWater AgricultureEconomicsVisualizationCommunicationEducationPolicyLaw, Sociology, Engineering, Architecture, Creativity…
Do you see yourself here?
Whatever your talent,Whatever your passion,
Use them to Help the Planet
How can you help?
In the meantime:Reduce our Carbon Footprint
Low Carbon Diet: A 30 Day Program to Lose 5000 Pounds - David Gershon - $13.00 at Amazon