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State of the Markets Inside Views on the Health and Productivity of the Global Innovation Economy Third Quarter 2019
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State of the Markets - svb.com · State of the Markets: Third Quarter 2019 2 State of the Markets: Third Quarter 2019 Finally, The IPOs We’ve Been Waiting For! The innovation economy

May 20, 2020

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Page 1: State of the Markets - svb.com · State of the Markets: Third Quarter 2019 2 State of the Markets: Third Quarter 2019 Finally, The IPOs We’ve Been Waiting For! The innovation economy

State of the MarketsInside Views on the Health and Productivity of the Global Innovation EconomyThird Quarter 2019

Page 2: State of the Markets - svb.com · State of the Markets: Third Quarter 2019 2 State of the Markets: Third Quarter 2019 Finally, The IPOs We’ve Been Waiting For! The innovation economy

State of the Markets: Third Quarter 2019 2

State of the Markets: Third Quarter 2019Finally, The IPOs We’ve Been Waiting For!

The innovation economy has been nothing if not resilient. Consider some of the recent hurdles: trade turmoil and tariffs, fears of slowing global growth, increased regulatory scrutiny and an inverted yield curve. Together, these factors tested investor confidence over the first six months of 2019. Nevertheless, entrepreneurs keep innovating, and markets continue to climb higher.

Perhaps the best illustration has been the arrival of so many highly anticipated IPOs. After a brief U.S. federal government shutdown early in the year, March ushered in a flurry of high-profile unicorn IPOs. Enterprise businesses had success, while consumer-focused IPOs experienced a more lukewarm reception.

This year’s IPOs are expected to provide significant liquidity for employees and venture investors. It will be interesting to see how this release of capital and talent gets recycled back into the innovation economy.

While we acknowledge the uncertainties and risks, it remains an exciting time for tech. We still have a healthy backlog of unicorn companies looking to go public this year. As long as public markets remain buoyant, we expect venture to continue to thrive.

Bob BleeHead of Corporate FinanceSilicon Valley Bank

Page 3: State of the Markets - svb.com · State of the Markets: Third Quarter 2019 2 State of the Markets: Third Quarter 2019 Finally, The IPOs We’ve Been Waiting For! The innovation economy

State of the Markets: Third Quarter 2019 3

State of the Markets: Third Quarter 2019

4 Macro: Tech Dominates Despite Mounting Concerns

9 U.S. Venture: A Shifting Landscape

14 Spotlight: Sustainability

18 IPOs: The Year of Liquidity

25 International: Murky Waters

Page 4: State of the Markets - svb.com · State of the Markets: Third Quarter 2019 2 State of the Markets: Third Quarter 2019 Finally, The IPOs We’ve Been Waiting For! The innovation economy

State of the Markets: Third Quarter 2019 4

Macro: Tech Dominates Despite Mounting Concerns

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‘05 ‘06 ’07 ’08 ’09 ’10 ’11 ’12 ‘13 ’14 ’15 ’16 ’17 ’18 ‘19

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

96

98

100

102

104

106

108

110

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Ratio: S&P 500 Tech/S&P 500

State of the Markets: Third Quarter 2019 5

Amid IPOs and Robust Markets, Tech Outperforms

Source: S&P Capital IQ, PitchBook and SVB analysis.

History has shown that tech companies prefer to go public when markets are accommodative. This year’s positive performance has encouraged a flurry of IPOs. Since the markets’ rebound from December lows, tech has been the best performing sector of the S&P 500.

0

5

10

15

20

2019: Tech Outperformance YTDS&P 500 vs. U.S. Venture-Backed Tech IPOs: 2005–1H’19

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0.2

0.6

1.0

1.4

1.8

Mar

'99

Jun

'99

Sep

'99

Dec

'99

Mar

'00

Jun

'00

Sep

'00

Dec

'00

Mar

'01

Jun

'01

Sep

'01

Dec

'01

Mar

'02

Jun

'02

Sep

'02

Inverted Yield Curve Puts Investors on Edge

State of the Markets: Third Quarter 2019 6

Despite historically low interest rates, recent Fed rate hikes and falling long-term yields have inverted the yield curve. Not all inversions precede recessions, but this still might portend to an economic slowdown—with tech’s relative performance mixed.

Yield Curve (10Y less Fed Funds): 2009–2019 Analyzing Past Inversions: Tech’s Performance

Notes: Yield Curve = 10Y U.S. Treasury less federal funds rate; bear market dates determined by S&P 500 Price Returns greater than -20%Source: S&P Capital IQ and SVB analysis.

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

2013 2015 2017 2019

Yield Curve Inversion

Yield Curve Inversion

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

Mar

'05

Jun

'05

Sep

'05

Dec

'05

Mar

'06

Jun

'06

Sep

'06

Dec

'06

Mar

'07

Jun

'07

Sep

'07

Dec

'07

Mar

'08

Jun

'08

Sep

'08

Dec

'08

Yield Curve Inversion

S&P 500 TechS&P 500Bear Market

Page 7: State of the Markets - svb.com · State of the Markets: Third Quarter 2019 2 State of the Markets: Third Quarter 2019 Finally, The IPOs We’ve Been Waiting For! The innovation economy

1.4%

1.3%

1.3%

1.4%

1.4%

1.5%

1.6%

1.5%

1.9%

2.5%

2010 2013 2016 2019

Tariff Increases Start To Take Effect

State of the Markets: Third Quarter 2019 7

Trade Turmoil Ramps Up

Notes: 1) Calculated as the total tariff burden divided by total goods imports 2) Product codes associated with the “High Tech Sector” are defined by the U.S. Census.Source: Treasury website and SVB analysis.

Tariff talk has escalated in recent months with China increasing rates on $60B worth of U.S. goods and the U.S. threatening tariffs on an additional $300B+ worth of Chinese goods. The proposed 4th round would have an outsized effect on U.S. imports associated with High Tech.

Effect of U.S. Tariff Rounds on High Tech Sector2Effective Tariff Rate for All U.S. Goods Imports1

Round 1 July 2018

Round 2 Aug. 2018

Round 3Sep. 2018

Round 4Proposed

Est. Additional Tariff Burden (In Effect)

Additional Tariff Burden as a Percentage of U.S. High Tech Goods Imports from China

Est. Additional Tariff Burden (Potential)

Page 8: State of the Markets - svb.com · State of the Markets: Third Quarter 2019 2 State of the Markets: Third Quarter 2019 Finally, The IPOs We’ve Been Waiting For! The innovation economy

State of the Markets: Third Quarter 2019 8

Who Risks More in a Trade War?

Source: EDGAR, S&P Capital IQ and SVB analysis.

U.S. tech giants recognize a significant portion of their revenue from overseas. For Chinese tech giants, the situation is mixed. Huawei and Xiaomi rely heavily on foreign sales, while Baidu and Tencent are much more focused domestically.

2010 2018 2010 2018 2010 2018 2010 2018 2010 2018

Select Tech Company 2018 Revenue Breakdown: Domestic vs. Foreign

Dom

estic

Rev

enue

Fore

ign

Reve

nue

37% 43% 51% 46% 98% 97% 60% 52%

63% 57% 49% 54% 2% 40% 48%3%

Page 9: State of the Markets - svb.com · State of the Markets: Third Quarter 2019 2 State of the Markets: Third Quarter 2019 Finally, The IPOs We’ve Been Waiting For! The innovation economy

State of the Markets: Third Quarter 2019 9

U.S. Venture: A Shifting Landscape

Page 10: State of the Markets - svb.com · State of the Markets: Third Quarter 2019 2 State of the Markets: Third Quarter 2019 Finally, The IPOs We’ve Been Waiting For! The innovation economy

Era of Democratization

State of the Markets: Third Quarter 2019 10

The Next Era of Venture Capital

Source: SVB analysis.

In most industries, with competition and technological advancement comes disruption. It would be ironic if the venture capital industry were any different.

Vent

ure

Firm

sFo

unde

rs/C

ompa

nies

1960 1980 2000 2004 2012 2018 & Beyond

Capital + Service

Adapting to Change

Capital Boom Dot Com Bust

Cottage Industry

LPs are HNW and family offices.

VCs hold the power as supply of capital is limited.

Enactment ofERISA & Revenue Act power start of “smart money”.

Founders have more influence.

CVC emerges.

New entrants.

VCs provide tools, resources & support.

Micro VC boom.

Homogeneous term sheets.

Founder friendly.

Increased non-traditional investor participation.

Bigger fund sizes.

New operating structures.

Diversity in GPs, strategy, sector, geography, stage.

Data-driven capital as a service.

Balance of Control

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0

25

50

75

100

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

0

25

50

75

100

2082014

<$200M $1B+$200M -$400M

$400M -$600M

$600M -$800M

$800M -$1B

Facing a growing supply of capital and increased competition for deal flow, VC firms face a decision: Raise more and write bigger checks or pick a focus. Capital is becoming concentrated in funds greater than $1B in size—representing just under 40% of all fundraising in 2018.

Firms Must Choose Which Wave to Catch

State of the Markets: Third Quarter 2019 11Source: PitchBook and SVB analysis.

Concentration of Capital in Top Funds Fund Breakdown (# Funds and % of Total Raised)

$4B

$6B

$14B

$5B

$9B

$16B

$8B

$13B

$22B

2010 2014 2018

Top 3 FundsTop 5 FundsTop 10 Funds

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

0

25

50

75

100

189

<$200M $1B+$200M -$400M

$400M -$600M

$600M -$800M

$800M -$1B

2018

97

<$200M $1B+$200M -$400M

$400M -$600M

$600M -$800M

$800M -$1B

2010

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State of the Markets: Third Quarter 2019 12

Focusing on the Future

Source: PitchBook, PitchBook-NVCA Venture Monitor and SVB analysis.

Having a focus—whether it be geographical, sector specific or other—is one way to compete if writing bigger checks isn’t an option. Initial signs are positive as firms are investing more in emerging areas and female-led companies are attracting a greater share of capital.

Diversity: Venture Investment in Female Founders

$0.5

B

$0.5

B

$0.9

B

$0.7

B

$1.0

B

$1.5

B

$1.5

B

$1.3

B

$2.0

B

$3.1

B

$1.9

B

146 159

211

281

348

479438

420478

536

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

$0.0

$0.5

$1.0

$1.5

$2.0

$2.5

$3.0

$3.5

$4.0

$4.5

2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Capital Invested

Deal Count2019 Estimate

Geographies: First Time Fund Investments

2009 2014 2018

55%

21%

24%

50%

27%

23%

Established Emerging Rest of U.S.

47%

24%

29%

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State of the Markets: Third Quarter 2019 13

Case Study: Emerging Managers

Notes: 1) Emerging Manager defined as having raised no more than three funds, sub-$100M in size.Source: PitchBook and SVB analysis.

The changing venture landscape has pushed emerging managers to consider other locations for formation and investment. Specialist firms tend to form near the epicenter of their industry of focus — with the added benefit of avoiding the valuation premiums present in established hubs.

6%

12%

7%

42%62%12%

8%

3%

20%25%

11%

7%

18%33%

13%8%

NorCalNYMAMid-TierRest of U.S.

2016 to 2018 Firm Formation:

All Venture(excl. EM)

EmergingManagers1

EmergingManagers1

All Venture(excl. EM)

2016 to 2018 Deals:

15%

28%

33%

37%

Page 14: State of the Markets - svb.com · State of the Markets: Third Quarter 2019 2 State of the Markets: Third Quarter 2019 Finally, The IPOs We’ve Been Waiting For! The innovation economy

State of the Markets: Third Quarter 2019 14

Spotlight: Sustainability

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$1.4

B

$1.5

B

$1.1

B

$2.0

B

$1.9

B

$2.0

B

$1.9

B

$2.9

B

$2.1

B

8

14 1412

19

16

23

9

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019*

Sustainability Investments Are on the Rise

State of the Markets: Third Quarter 2019 15Note: Fund data for 2018 lower due to lag in recording of data.Source: PitchBook and SVB analysis.

Investment in sustainability hit a new high in 2018 and is projected to blow past that mark in 2019. With increased involvement from family offices and a more conscious approach from both VCs and corporates, sustainable investing is here to say.

Notable CompaniesInvestments in SustainabilityCapital Invested

Number of New Impact Funds2019 Estimate

Solving for EV charging

$558M raised to date

Solving for carbon capture

$350M raised to date

Solving for sustainable transport

$459M raised to date

Solving for food security

$119M raised to date

Page 16: State of the Markets - svb.com · State of the Markets: Third Quarter 2019 2 State of the Markets: Third Quarter 2019 Finally, The IPOs We’ve Been Waiting For! The innovation economy

Family Offices Lead by Example

State of the Markets: Third Quarter 2019 16Source: UBS/Campden Wealth Global Family Office Report 2018, PitchBook and SVB analysis.

Despite being only 3% of total venture deals, family offices are an important complement to traditional venture due to their willingness to accept longer holding periods and invest in underserved areas. In 2018, 38% of family offices were involved in sustainable investing, with 45% planning to increase their level of investment going forward.

Family Office Survey:Do you plan to increase investments in sustainability over the next 12 months?

U.S. Venture Investment Involving a Family Office

$2B

$4B

$2B

$2B

$8B

$13B

$7B

$9B

$16B

$4B

96114

148

208

278

325

288300

299

2010 2013 2016 2019*

Capital Invested

Deal Count2019 Estimate

45%

23%

32%Plan toIncrease

No Plan toIncrease

Undecided

Page 17: State of the Markets - svb.com · State of the Markets: Third Quarter 2019 2 State of the Markets: Third Quarter 2019 Finally, The IPOs We’ve Been Waiting For! The innovation economy

State of the Markets: Third Quarter 2019 17

Corporates Make Their Mark on Sustainability

Source: United Nations Development Programme and SVB analysis.

Motivated by greater social expectations and tax efficiency, many top tech companies have committed to incorporating sustainable investment initiatives into their overall strategy.

Select Sustainable Development Goals (SDG)

Future Engineer program

$10M waste minimization

Commitment to using 100% renewable energy

$500M to address homelessness

Signed large solar agreements

$1B affordable housing

Carbon-neutral data centers

$50M impact investment fund focusing on SDG issues$

Entrepreneur campAll global facilities 100% clean energyForestry program$300M clean energy fund

Page 18: State of the Markets - svb.com · State of the Markets: Third Quarter 2019 2 State of the Markets: Third Quarter 2019 Finally, The IPOs We’ve Been Waiting For! The innovation economy

State of the Markets: Third Quarter 2019 18

IPOs: The Year of Liquidity

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$114

B

$156

B

$135

B

$131

B

$94B

State of the Markets: Third Quarter 2019 19

Investors Are Ready to Cash OutThe proceeds investors are expected to receive is substantial and on par with dry powder estimates, venture investment and even Ukraine’s GDP. This flood of capital is likely to have a waterfall effect, driving Limited Partner returns and fueling the next venture cycle.

Notes: 1) Investor equity calculated using ownership figures provided by PitchBook. 2) Dry powder figures as of Q3 2018. Source: PitchBook, S&P Capital IQ, WorldBank and SVB analysis.

Q2 2019Market Cap.

InvestorProceeds

(Est.)

Global VC Dry

Powder2

US VC 2018

Investment

Ukraine 2018GDP

$14B

$8B

$7B

$6B

$3B

$1B

$1B

$1BUS VCDry

Powder2

$175B

~65%

Increase in Value of Investor Equity Post-IPO2019 VC-Backed Tech Unicorn IPOs: Investor Equity1

Page 20: State of the Markets - svb.com · State of the Markets: Third Quarter 2019 2 State of the Markets: Third Quarter 2019 Finally, The IPOs We’ve Been Waiting For! The innovation economy

State of the Markets: Third Quarter 2019 20

Liquidity Splashes Down on San Francisco

Notes: 1) IPO pipeline determined by SVB “IPO Readiness” analysis 2) Based on company headquarters' locationSource: PitchBook, SVB proprietary data and SVB analysis.

With the flood of IPOs, investors and employees will soon be flush with capital. This liquidity release will drive the next wave of investors and entrepreneurs as capital gets recycled back into the ecosystem, with San Francisco a leading beneficiary.

IPO Pipeline Based on Post-Money1

YTD IPOs

Analysis of 2019 VC-Backed Tech IPOs (U.S. Exchanges)

$71B$210B

$300B (Est.)

Total 2018 IPO Market Cap.

YTD 2019 IPO & Potential IPOs Market

Cap. (Est.)

~15,000 Millionaires$120B Wealth Creation

~40%Millionaires located

in San Francisco2

~~$8MAverage Gross

Payout

4xMedian Series Seed Investment in 2018

Page 21: State of the Markets - svb.com · State of the Markets: Third Quarter 2019 2 State of the Markets: Third Quarter 2019 Finally, The IPOs We’ve Been Waiting For! The innovation economy

State of the Markets: Third Quarter 2019 21

After a Dry Start, Tech IPOs SwellThis year was expected to be the year of liquidity as long-anticipated exits of many unicorns came to fruition, releasing billions in trapped value. The U.S. federal government shutdown held back IPO activity until the end of February. Since then, exit activity has picked up, and IPOs have grown in size, with notable divergences in performance.

Notes: *Number of M&A deals with an undisclosed value; June 2019 acquisition figures may be lowerdue to lag in recording of data.Source: PitchBook, Axios Pro-Rata, PE-Hub, Strictly VC, Fortune Term Sheet and SVB analysis.

U.S. VC-Backed Tech IPOs and M&A Deals: Sized by Market Cap at IPO or Acquisition Price

Enterprise

Consumer 8* 20* 13* 17* 14* 2*

9*35*19*21*26*33* IPOAcquisition

January February March April May JuneEnd of U.S. GovernmentShutdown

Page 22: State of the Markets - svb.com · State of the Markets: Third Quarter 2019 2 State of the Markets: Third Quarter 2019 Finally, The IPOs We’ve Been Waiting For! The innovation economy

State of the Markets: Third Quarter 2019 22

The Changing Face of IPOs

VC-Backed Tech IPOs: Revenue

With the abundance of private capital, companies have been able to grow larger while staying private longer. Today’s aspiring public tech company typically has raised significantly more capital and boasts much higher revenues.

Source: PitchBook and SVB analysis.

VC-Backed Tech IPOs: Equity Raised

$89M

$84M

$104

M

$106

M

$85M

$92M

$113

M

$159

M

$192

M

$230

M

3.3x

5.3x 4.5x5.7x

6.2x 6.3x

4.6x

5.9x

7.4x

11.1x

2010 2013 2016 2019

Median RevenueMedian Revenue Multiple

H1 2019

$52M

$65M

$65M

$106

M

$58M

$94M

$131

M

$105

M

$238

M

$174

M

$66M$89M $91M

$98M$100M

$87M $92M

$116M

$193M

$300M

2010 2013 2016 2019

Median Equity Prior to IPOMedian Equity Raised at IPO

H1 2019

Page 23: State of the Markets - svb.com · State of the Markets: Third Quarter 2019 2 State of the Markets: Third Quarter 2019 Finally, The IPOs We’ve Been Waiting For! The innovation economy

State of the Markets: Third Quarter 2019 23

Public Markets Validate Private Valuations

Note: 1) LPV is last private valuation from a priced venture equity round prior to IPO.Source: S&P Capital IQ, PitchBook and SVB analysis.

Public investors have largely agreed with their private counterparts on unicorn valuations. Six of eight billion-dollar IPOs in 2019 priced above their last private round. Public markets can be mercurial, and true validation may take time. Facebook traded below its LPV1 for almost a year.

-100%

00%

100%

200%

300%

400%

500%

600%

700%

800%

900%

1,000%

Valuation Relative to LPV: 2019 U.S. $1B+ Tech IPOs Market Cap: Facebook+2,319%

$0B

$100B

$200B

$300B

$400B

$500B

$600B

$700B

$800B

2012 2015 2018

$30B

$50B

$70B

$90B

'12 '13

FB LPV1

Value at IPOValue at 6/30/19

Page 24: State of the Markets - svb.com · State of the Markets: Third Quarter 2019 2 State of the Markets: Third Quarter 2019 Finally, The IPOs We’ve Been Waiting For! The innovation economy

-50%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Cumulative Performance: 2019 U.S. $1B+ Tech IPOs

State of the Markets: Third Quarter 2019 24

Enterprise Zooms While Consumer Needs a Lift

IPO Breakdown by Customer Type

Note: 1) LPV is last private valuation from a priced venture equity round prior to IPO.Source: S&P Capital IQ, PitchBook and SVB analysis.

One unmistakable trend is the outperformance of enterprise tech companies versus their consumer counterparts. Whether it be first-day “pops” or post-IPO performance, enterprise companies have led the pack due in part to their stronger fundamentals.

Days Since IPO

Consumer IPOEnterprise IPO

Consumer

IPO Date 3/29/19 4/18/19 5/10/19 6/28/2019Range $70–$72 $15–$17 $44–$50 $17–$19

IPO Price $72 $19 $45 $20LPV1 $15B $12B $70B $1B

1st Day 9% 28% -8% 45%Post-IPO -9% 43% 3% 45%

IPO Mkt. Cap $24B $10B $76B $2B

Enterprise

IPO Date 4/11/19 4/18/19 6/12/19 6/18/19Range $21–$23 $33–$35 $28–$30 –

IPO Price $24 $36 $34 $26LPV1 $1B $1B $3B $7B

1st Day 59% 72% 71% 49%Post-IPO 96% 147% 101% 44%

IPO Mkt. Cap $2B $9B $7B $16B

Page 25: State of the Markets - svb.com · State of the Markets: Third Quarter 2019 2 State of the Markets: Third Quarter 2019 Finally, The IPOs We’ve Been Waiting For! The innovation economy

State of the Markets: Third Quarter 2019 25

International: Murky Waters

Page 26: State of the Markets - svb.com · State of the Markets: Third Quarter 2019 2 State of the Markets: Third Quarter 2019 Finally, The IPOs We’ve Been Waiting For! The innovation economy

State of the Markets: Third Quarter 2019 26

The U.S. Takes a FIRRMA Stance

Who & What Might be Affected?

The enactment of the Foreign Investment Risk Review Modernization Act (FIRRMA)1 adds to a host of headwinds for cross-border M&A between foreign entities and the U.S. CFIUS had already dramatically increased reviews before FIRRMA. It will now have latitude to do even more.

Notes: 1) FIRRMA is a regulation adopted in November 2018 that makes revisions and clarifications to CFIUS.Source: PitchBook and SVB analysis.

Acquisitions Blocked and Divestitures Ordered

$245MDivestiture

$117BBlocked

$1.3BBlocked

$723MBlocked

FundsFunds with foreign LPs investing in American

companies

CompaniesAmerican companies

who outsource tonon-U.S. entities

IndustriesBroadens scopeof transactionsand industries

Funds & CompaniesLengthens the time

period for reviews and investigations by CFIUS

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State of the Markets: Third Quarter 2019 27

CFIUS: East Asia in the Crosshairs

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Wholesale and Retail TradeMining, Utilities, and ConstructionFinance, Information, and ServicesManufacturing

2%

4%

7%

12%

Historically one of the most secretive regulatory bodies in the U.S., CFIUS has been more active than ever, especially in manufacturing and services. Transactions involving China and Japan, important competitors of the U.S. in these sectors, are more likely to be reviewed.

Notes: 1) 2016–2018 sectoral makeup and 2018 total based on extrapolation from previous years. 2) 2015 is the latest country-level data available.Source: U.S. Gov. Accountability Office, Congressional Research Service, Kirkland Ellis, PitchBook and SVB analysis.

Reviewed Percentage of Respective Country’s Transactions: 2013–20152

CFIUS: Reviewed Transactions1

Rest of World

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State of the Markets: Third Quarter 2019 28

China-U.S. VC Investment DropsSymptomatic of a generally sour trade and investment outlook, Chinese VC investment in U.S. companies has declined quarter over quarter since the first half of 2018. The percentage of these investments with a Chinese lead declined until this most recent quarter.

Notes: 1) Represents aggregate value of all deal sizes involving Chinese investors, not those investors’ specific commitments.Source: PitchBook and SVB analysis.

U.S. VC Deals with at Least One Chinese Investor U.S. VC Deals with at Least One Chinese Investor

Q2 2018 Q4 2018 Q2 2019

217 211

244264

144

$12.2B

$6.8B

$8.4B

$14.3B

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

$8.9B Est.

284455697565

25%20%

29%

33%39%

34%

Q2 2019Q4 2018Q2 2018

% Led by Chinese InvestorDeal Count

2019 EstimateDeal Count

Value Invested1

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State of the Markets: Third Quarter 2019 29

China’s Global Investment Mix Is Shifting$5

4B

$25B

$10B

$15B

$23B

$8B

$59B

$97B

$42B

$34B

$27B

$43B

25%

13%

9%

2016 2017 2018

USAEast AsiaEuropeRest of WorldUS Share

Chinese Investment by Region

Country 2015–2018 Investment

#1 United Kingdom $55B

#2 Switzerland $52B

#3 Australia $36B

#4 Germany $34B

#5 Brazil $31B

#6 Pakistan $27B

#7 Nigeria $27B

#8 Singapore $26B

#9 Malaysia $26B

#10 Bangladesh $23B

Top Non-U.S. Destinations

Source: AEI China Investment Tracker, World Economic Forum and SVB analysis.

These countries lie

on or near trade routes

associated with the

$900B New Silk Road initiative.

China continues to diversify its overseas investment portfolio. Europe receives the lion’s share, while the U.S. share is now below 10%. Countries lying along the New Silk Road trade corridor have received massive investment in recent years, as have other emerging markets such as Brazil.

U.S.

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70

87

155

121

93

35

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

State of the Markets: Third Quarter 2019 30

Europe Also Clamps Its Regulatory Jaws

Source: Mergermarket, National Law Review, Arnold & Porter and SVB analysis.

As in the U.S., European regulators are ratcheting up oversight of foreign deals. As China looks to invest more in Europe, policymakers at both the national and EU level are raising concerns, citing national security.

Important Policy EventsEuropean Acquisitions by Chinese Buyers

2019 ProjectedDeal Count

December 29, 2018 – Germany gives its Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy power to block investments for 10% control or more in security-critical industries.

February 6, 2019 – European Commission makes two landmark merger-blocking decisions on the same day.

March 5, 2019 – Council of the European Union passes Regulation 2019/452, establishing new framework for screening foreign investments into the European Union.

April 10, 2019 – Regulation 2019/452 officially goes into effect.

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State of the Markets: Third Quarter 2019 31Source: PitchBook, SSE Website, LULD Plan Website and SVB analysis.

Capital Raised in First 25 STAR Market IPOs

$17B$5.4B

20% dailyfluctuation restriction

500,000 RMB minimum individual investment

Registration-based system for IPOs – formality review

Unprofitable companies may list

10% daily fluctuation restriction

No minimum individual investment

Approval-based system for IPOs – value assessment

Profitability track record required

5–10% 5-minute fluctuation limit

No minimum individual investment

Registration-based system for IPOs – formality review

Unprofitable companies may list

Unprofitable companies may list

5–10% 5-minutefluctuation limit

No minimum individual investment

Registration-based system for IPOs – formality review

Venture Investment in U.S. Companies, 2019

$61BCapital Raised in Last 25 Nasdaq Tech IPOs $8.3B

Venture Investment in Chinese Companies, 2019

A Star Is Born: The New Chinese Nasdaq?With reduced prospects for collaboration with U.S. tech, focus on domestic innovation has increased significantly. The new STAR Market aims to be the market of choice for Chinese tech firms. This new exit avenue may stimulate the VC industry in China.

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State of the Markets: Third Quarter 2019 32

Appendix

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State of the Markets: Third Quarter 2019 33

Authors

Andrew PardoSr. Associate, [email protected]

Bob Blee heads Silicon Valley Bank’s Corporate Finance Group, which leads SVB’s relationships with public and late-stage private companies in the innovation sector throughout North America, providing a full suite of lending and banking products, as well as guidance as a trusted partner, helping our clients succeed and quickly scale.

Previously, Bob held a variety of roles in SVB’s California and Midwest regions, including heading seed, early and mid-stage infrastructure, hardware, consumer internet and fintech banking in the Bay Area and Southern California and was responsible for SVB’s Mezzanine Lending and Loan Syndications practices.

Bob sits on the nonprofit board of the Network for Teaching Entrepreneurship (NFTE) and the Silicon Valley Advisory Council of the Commonwealth Club. He is also active with his alma mater, the University of Illinois.

Andrew Pardo is a Senior Research Associate based in San Francisco, responsible for the capital markets research and data-driven analysis of the innovation economies that SVB serves globally. In this role, he supports research efforts exploring investment, fundraising and exit dynamics in the global venture ecosystem.

Prior to this role, Andrew was a Buy-Side Equity Research Analyst for a $100B+ asset manager based in the Bay Area. His area of coverage spanned the domestic and international financials sector. Andrew earned a Bachelor of Science in accounting from Loyola Marymount University.

Nick Candy, CFAVice President, [email protected]

Bob BleeHead of Corporate [email protected]

Nick Candy is a Vice President based in San Francisco, responsible for capital markets research and data-driven analysis of the innovation economies that SVB serves globally. In this role, he has led global research efforts exploring investment, fundraising and exit dynamics in the venture ecosystem.

Prior to his research role, Nick managed strategic advisory and valuation engagements for venture-backed technology companies as part of SVB Analytics.

Nick earned a Master of Business Administration from Chapman University and a Bachelor of Science in design from Bournemouth University. In addition, he holds the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) designation.

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State of the Markets: Third Quarter 2019 34

Disclaimers

This material including, without limitation, to the statistical information herein, is provided for informational purposes only. The material is based in part on information from third-party sources that we believe to be reliable but which have not been independently verified by us, and for this reason, we do not represent that the information is accurate or complete. The information should not be viewed as tax, investment, legal or other advice, nor is it to be relied on in making an investment or other decision. You should obtain relevant and specific professional advice before making any investment decision. Nothing relating to the material should be construed as a solicitation, offer or recommendation to acquire or dispose of any investment or to engage in any other transaction.

Silicon Valley Bank is registered in England and Wales at Alphabeta, 14-18 Finsbury Square, London EC2A 1BR, UK under No. FC029579. Silicon Valley Bank is authorised and regulated by the California Department of Business Oversight and the United States Federal Reserve Bank; authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority with number 577295; and subject to regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and limited regulation by the Prudential Regulation Authority. Details about the extent of our regulation by the Prudential Regulation Authority are available from us on request.

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See complete disclaimers on previous page.© 2019 SVB Financial Group. All rights reserved. SVB, SVB FINANCIAL GROUP, SILICON VALLEY BANK, MAKE NEXT HAPPEN NOW and the chevron device are trademarks of SVB Financial Group, used under license. Silicon Valley Bank is a member of the FDIC and the Federal Reserve System. Silicon Valley Bank is the California bank subsidiary of SVB Financial Group (Nasdaq: SIVB).

About Silicon Valley BankFor more than 35 years, Silicon Valley Bank has helped innovative companies and their investors move bold ideas forward, fast. SVB provides targeted financial services and expertise through its offices in innovation centers around the world. With commercial, international and private banking services, SVB helps address the unique needs of innovators.

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