State of the Market (Nov 2011)

8/3/2019 State of the Market (Nov 2011)

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State of the Market

November 2011


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State of the Market

Visitation Trends

Economic Indicators

Market Performance Indicators

Forecasts


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ORLANDO VISITATION


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2010 Impact of Tourism

$28.3 billion in visitor spending

Tourism accounted for estimated 216,000+ direct

industry jobs; 24.4% of total private employment in

the Metro Orlando area (Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford) $13.4 billion annual earned wages ($7.3 billion direct,

$6.1 billion indirect and induced)

Source: Tourism Economics

Updated: August 2011


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Visitor Snapshot

Visitor Volumes (millions) 2007 2008 2009 2010 f 2011 11/10

Total 48.745 48.888 46.583 51.455 53.37 3.7%

Domestic 45.907 45.515 43.319 47.780 49.56 3.7%

Leisure 35.334 35.282 33.992 38.263 39.68 3.7%

Business 10.574 10.233 9.326 9.517 10.26 3.8%

International 2.838 3.343 3.264 3.675 3.82 3.8%

Canada .783 .910 .865 .960 1.00 5.3%

Overseas 2.055 2.433 2.399 2.715 2.80 3.3%

U.K. .990 .959 .831 .839 0.83 -0.9%

Source: D.K. Shifflet & Associates; Office of Travel & Tourism Industries; Tourism Economics


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Metro Orlando Visitor Volume

39.8 37.740.6 42.7

45.2 46.7 45.1 45.9 45.5 43.347.8

3.73.1

2.42.3

2.6 2.7 2.7 2.8 3.3 3.3

3.7

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

millions

International Domestic

Sources: D.K. Shifflet & Associates, Office of Travel & Tourism Industries


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Overnight Domestic Visitors

19.0 18.620.1 20.6

22.8 23.6 22.7 23.6 23.7 22.925.8

4.1 3.6

3.5 3.5

3.63.8

4.03.8 3.5

3.2

3.2

1.61.4

1.5 1.6

1.71.7

1.5 1.6 1.7 1.4

1.4

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

millions

Overnight Transient Business Overnight Conv-Group Meeting Overnight Leisure

Over night visitors account for nearly two-thirds (64%) of all domestic

visitors. Leisure travelers represent 83% of domestic overnight visitors.

Source: D.K. Shifflet & Associates


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International Visitors

The United Kingdoms share of international visitors has declined from 35% in

2000 to 25% 2009.

657 595 505 531 631 657693 783

910 865 960

1,3121,073

889 938

1,054 1,060 973990

959831

839

1,761

1,394

984 830

897 956 1,0201,065

1,4741,568

1,876

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

thous

ands

Other United Kingdom Canada

Sources: Visit Orlando , US Department of Commerce, Office of Travel & Tourism Industries


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Overseas Visitor and U.S.

Market ShareOverseas visitors (excluding Canada & Mexico) to Orlando increased in 2010,and Orlandos share of overseas arrivals to the U.S. increased for the thirdconsecutive year.

3.01

2.47

1.87 1.77 1.952.02 1.99 2.06

2.43 2.402.72

11.6% 11.3%9.8% 9.8% 9.6% 9.3% 9.2%

8.6%9.6% 10.1%

10.3%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

million

s

Overseas Visitors Share of US arrivals

Source: US Department of Commerce, Office of Travel & Tourism Industries


10/27

Overseas Arrivals to the U.S.

The Office of Travel & Tourism Industries (US Department of Commerce) only

releases destination figures at year-end; monthly data is only available at the

U.S. level.

0

1

1

2

2

3

3

4

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Millions

2011

2010

2009

2008


18.4 million (+6.4%) Aug YTD

26.4 million (+11.0%)

23.8 million (-6.3%)

25.3 million (+6.1%)


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U.S. Arrivals from Key

Overseas Markets*

2008 2009 2010 10/09YTD

Aug 2011 11/10

Total Overseas 25,341,451 23,756,184 26,362,616 +11.0% 18,381,944 6.4%

United Kingdom 4,565,000 3,899,167 3,850,864 -1.2% 1,449,128 1.3%

Germany 1,782,000 1,686,825 1,726,193 +2.3% 1,182,967 5.9%

Brazil 769,000 892,611 1,197,866 +34.2% 939,617 27.2%

Colombia419,000 424,526 494,739 +16.5% 311,234 1.4%

Argentina 318,000 356,428 436,192 +22.4% 341,591 17.0%

Ireland 531,000 411,203 360,492 -12.3% 221,834 -3.5%

U.S. arrivals from the United Kingdom and Ireland continue to decline, while

South American origin markets are showing strong growth.

* The Office of Travel & Tourism Industries (US Department of Commerce) only releases year-end destination figures; monthly data is only available at the U.S. level.



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ECONOMIC INDICATORS


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Labor Market

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

-900

-700

-500

-300

-100

100

300

500

700

Jan-05

Apr

Jul

Oct

Jan-06

Apr

Jul

Oct

Jan-07

Apr

Jul

Oct

Jan-08

Apr

Jul

Oct

Jan-09

Apr

Jul

Oct

Jan-10

Apr

Jul

Oct

Jan-11

Apr

July

October

UnemploymentRate

JobGainsorLosses(000s)

Payroll Change Natl. Unemployment

4.7 million jobs lost in 2009; 8.36 million during 2008 & 2009combined Approximately 2.6 million lost Jan 2001-June2003

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics


14/27

Consumer Confidence Index

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Recession

Mar-Nov 2001

9/11/01 Hurricane Katrina

August 29, 2005

Recession

2008/2009

Iraq Invasion

(Mar 03)

The Consumer Confidence has increased three consecutive months but remains below

levels associated with healthy economy (90 indicates the economy is stable, 100 or

above indicates strong growth.)

Source: The Conference Board


15/27

U.S. GDP

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

$11,000

$11,500

$12,000

$12,500

$13,000

$13,500

$14,000

AnnualizedG

rowthRate

AnnualizedGro

ssDomesticProd

uct

GDP Growth Rate

Economic output has experienced seven consecutive quarters of growth since

bottoming in 2009 Q2, and output has surpassed prerecession levels of 2007 Q4.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis


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MARKET PERFORMANCE INDICATORSo Airport Passenger Traffic

o Port Canaveral Cruise Passengers

o Convention Center Attendance

o

Motel metrics


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Orlando International Airport

Passenger Traffic

1,500,000

1,700,000

1,900,000

2,100,000

2,300,0002,500,000

2,700,000

2,900,000

3,100,000

3,300,000

3,500,000


2011

2010

2009 33.7 million (-5.5%)

34.9 million (+3.5%)


Source: Greater Orlando Aviation Authority


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Orlando-Sanford International AirportPassenger Traffic

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000


2011

2010

2009 1.8 million (+3.2%)

1.7 million (-7.3%)


Source: Sanford Aviation Authority


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Port Canaveral

Cruise Traffic

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000


2011

2010

2009 3.2 million (-8.9%)

2.8 million (-11.5%)

2.4 million (+15.3%) Sep YTD

Source: Canaveral Port Authority


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Orange County Convention Center

Convention & Tradeshow Attendance*

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000


2011

2010

2009 779,740 (-21.7%)

912,235 (+17.0%)

872,015 (+6.8%) Sep YTD

Source : Orange County Convention Center


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Lodging Results

2011 Sep YTD Orange County Metro Orlando Florida National

Demand (% change) 7.5% 7.8% 7.0% 5.3%

Occupancy* 72.6% 6.6% 68.6% 7.1% 64.4% 6.8% 61.6% 4.6%

Average Daily Rate* $100.82 5.2% $94.37 4.5% $109.25 4.1% $101.45 3.6%

RevPAR* $73.23 12.1% $64.74 11.9% $70.36 11.2% $62.54 8.3%

Encouraging growth in demand for hotel rooms through June, partially offset by

inventory growth. Local occupancy rate exceed state and national averages.

*Occupancy, ADR & RevPAR from Smith Travel Research does not include Disney-owned hotels

or alternative forms of accommodations such as vacation homes, timeshares, or campgrounds.

Source: Smith Travel Research; Visit Orlando Market Research & Insights


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Key Lodging Markets

Rooms Sold

Occupancy Rate Average Daily Rate

2011 Sep YTD 2011 %Change 2011 % Change

Miami, FL 9.4% 75.9% 7.8% $151.82 4.8%

Orlando, FL 7.8% 68.6% 7.1% $94.37 4.5%

Los Angeles, CA 6.9% 73.4% 6.7% $124.09 6.2%

New York, NY 6.2% 80.4% -0.6% $231.49 6.6%

Las Vegas, NV * 5.9% 85.2% 4.1% $104.52 10.7%

Anaheim-Santa Ana, CA 5.2% 72.6% 5.0% $114.22 4.7%

Philadelphia, PA 4.3% 67.3% 3.9% $113.68 5.4%

Atlanta, GA 4.2% 61.0% 4.5% $82.84 0.1%

San Diego, CA 4.2% 71.4% 3.9% $127.64 3.4%

Chicago, IL 3.7% 65.0% 3.8% $115.59 4.9%

Boston, MA 3.4% 72.4% 3.4% $146.48 4.6%

Norfolk-Virginia Beach, VA 2.3% 57.5% 2.8% $87.71 -0.5%Washington, DC 1.1% 69.2% -0.2% $144.91 1.2%

Top 25 Markets 5.8% 67.9% 4.8% $122.16 4.6%

All Other Markets 5.1% 58.8% 4.4% $90.51 2.8%

Source: Smith Travel Research; Visit Orlando Market Research & Insights

* Las Vegas Convention & Visitors Authority website June YTD


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FORECASTS


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Economic Forecasts

2010 Q4 Survey of Professional Forecasters 2007 2008 2009 2010 f 2011 f 2012 f

Gross Domestic Product (growth rate) 2.1% 0.4% -2.4% 2.7% 2.5% 2.9%Unemployment 4.6% 5.8% 9.3% 9.7% 9.3% 8.7%

Inflation (headline) 2.8% 3.8% -0.4% 1.0% 1.6% 1.9%

Core Inflation (excl. food & energy) 2.3% 2.3% 1.7% 0.8% 1.3% 1.7%

The fear of a double-dip recession has eased since the previous (2010 Q3)

survey, but the anticipated rate of growth for the US economy has slowed.

Forecasters predict GDP will grow 2.7% in 2010, down slightly from the 2.9% forecasted

in the Q3 survey. Growth rates for 2011 and 2012 were also lowered.

Slower anticipated growth translated into lower expectations for payroll growth, slower

improvement in the unemployment rate, and slightly lower inflation expectations.

Source: Survey of Professional Forecasters, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

Risk of a Negative Quarter 2010 Q4 2011 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Current Survey (2010 Q4) 11.0% 12.9% 13.6% 13.2% 13.8%

Previous Survey (2010 Q3) 16.8% 16.5% 15.0% 14.9% n/a


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Metro Orlando Visitor Forecast

Visitor Volumes (millions) 2010 2011 11 vs 10 2012 12 vs 11

Total 51.46 53.37 3.7% 54.34 1.8%

Domestic 47.78 49.56 3.7% 50.36 1.6%

Leisure 38.26 39.68 3.7% 40.10 1.1%

Business 9.52 9.88 3.8% 10.26 3.8%

International 3.68 3.82 3.8% 3.98 4.2%

Canada 0.96 1.01 5.3% 1.03 2.3%

Overseas 2.72 2.80 3.3% 2.94 4.9%

United Kingdom .84 .83 -.9% .85 2.8%

Source: D.K. Shifflet & Associates; Office of Travel & Tourism Industries; Tourism Economics


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Metro Orlando Hotel Forecasts

26.724.5 24.9 25.5

29.1 2927.5 27.6 26.9

24.6 25.426.3

36.938.4

39.7 39.741.1 41 40.6 40.6 40.9 40.8 42 42.3

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010p 2011p

MillionsofRoomN

ights

Room Night Demand Room Night Supply

Source: Visit Orlando Market Research & Insights; Smith Travel Research; IHS Global Insight

72.6%

63.7% 62.6% 62.7%

70.9% 70.8%

67.7% 67.9%65.8%

60.7% 60.6%62.1%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010p 2011p

Metro Orlando Occupancy


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State of the Market (Nov 2011)

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