State of the Art short - Global Risk Forum GRF Davos...2010/06/01 · Unburied dead bodies constitute a health hazard and will contaminate water supplies. 6/1/2010 20 The mass media

6/1/2010

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E P dE P dEmergency Preparedness- State of the Art -

Emergency Preparedness- State of the Art -

Prof. David AlexanderUniversity of FlorenceProf. David AlexanderUniversity of Florence

OrganisationOrganisationOrganisationOrganisation

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HazardHazardmonitoring &monitoring &forecastingforecastingDisasterDisaster

managementmanagementmanagementmanagementMajorMajor

incidentincidentmanagementmanagement

IncidentIncident

PoliciesPoliciesPlansPlansProceduresProceduresProtocolsProtocols

Human &Human &materialmaterialresourcesresources

PopulationPopulation(community)(community)protectionprotection

IncidentIncidentmanagementmanagement

Partly after Tierney (2008) Incidents Major

incidents Disasters Catastrophes

Impact Very localised

Generallylocalised

Widespread and severe

Extremelylarge

Local Some mutual Inter- Major Response Local

effortsSome mutualassistance governmental

response

jinternational

response

Plans and procedures

Standard operating

procedures

Emergency plans

activated

Emergency plans fully activated

Plans potentially

overwhelmed

Resources Local resources

Some outside assistance

Interregional transfer of

Localresources resources assistance resources overwhelmed

Publicinvolvement

Very little involvement

Mainly not involved

Public veryinvolved

Extensively involved

Recovery Very few challenges

Few challenges

Major challenges

Massive challenges

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V lNation: policies of

compatibility harmonisation

International:exchange and support

Voluntarysector:

support andintegration Province, region, state, county:

co-ordination, assistance

compatibility, harmonisationand co-ordination

Privatesector:

integrationDisaster

Municipality or other local authority: emergency operations

Emergency preparednessEmergency preparednesshas reached a has reached a crossroadscrossroads

Emergency preparednessEmergency preparednesshas reached a has reached a crossroadscrossroadscrossroads....crossroads....crossroads....crossroads....

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A new classNatural:earthquakes,

floods,landslides etc

Natural:earthquakes,

floods,landslides etc

Technological:toxic spills,

transportationcrashes etc

Technological:toxic spills,

transportationcrashes etc

Forms ofdisaster

landslides, etc.landslides, etc.

S i lS i l I i lI i l

crashes, etc.crashes, etc.

of disaster?Social:

riots, massgatherings,

demonstrations

Social:riots, massgatherings,

demonstrations

Intentional:acts of

terrorism

Intentional:acts of

terrorism

"Civil"Civilcontingencies"contingencies"managementmanagement



CivilCivilprotectionprotection



TheThesecuritysecurity



"Homeland"Homeland"Homeland"Homeland"Homeland"Homeland BusinessBusinessBusinessBusinessBusinessBusiness

industryindustryindustryindustryindustryindustry

Emergenciesand disastersEmergenciesand disasters

"Homeland"Homelandsecurity"security"



BusinessBusinesscontinuitycontinuity

managementmanagement




managementmanagementComplexComplexemergenciesemergencies

ComplexComplexemergenciesemergencies

ComplexComplexemergenciesemergencies

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Civil protectionCivil protection::what degree ofwhat degree ofpolitical support?political support?



What role forWhat role forthe the securitysecurityindustryindustry ininthe generalthe general

??


??


??

What are theWhat are thelimits of limits of civilcivilcontingenciescontingenciesmanagementmanagement??

What are theWhat are thelimits of limits of civilcivilcontingenciescontingenciesmanagementmanagement??

HomelandHomelandsecuritysecurity::

is reductionis reduction





WhatWhatrelationshiprelationshipf f b ib i



emergency?emergency?emergency?emergency?emergency?emergency?

Emergenciesand disastersEmergenciesand disasters

is reductionis reductionin civil libertiesin civil liberties

acceptable?acceptable?





of of businessbusinesscontinuitycontinuity

managementmanagementwith civilwith civil

authorities?authorities?







Complex emergenciesComplex emergencies::How much aid fromHow much aid fromdonor countries?donor countries?



Naturaldisasters

Techno-logical

disasters

Socialdisasters

Inten-tional

disasters

Natural AnthropogenicNatural Anthropogenic

Civildefence

Civildefence

Civildefence

"Civil"Civil"Civil

CivilprotectionCivilprotectionCivilprotection

Civilcontingencies"Civilcontingencies"Civilcontingencies"

"Homeland Security"

"Homeland Security"

"Homeland Security"

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Civil contingenciesCivil contingencies

management



Civildefence

ResilienceResilience

management

The risk environmentThe risk environment

Paramilitary forcesParamilitary forces(National Guard)(National Guard)

Paramilitary forcesParamilitary forces(National Guard)(National Guard)

MilitaryMilitaryforcesforcesMilitaryMilitaryforcesforces

PolicePoliceforcesforcesPolicePoliceforcesforces

PMFPMFPMFPMF

MFMFMFMFPFPFPFPF

ItalyItalyItalyItaly

FireFirebrigadesbrigades

FireFirebrigadesbrigades

PublicPublicadministrationsadministrations

PublicPublicadministrationsadministrations

Civilian volunteerCivilian volunteerforcesforces

Civilian volunteerCivilian volunteerforcesforces

FBFBFBFB PAPAPAPACVFCVFCVFCVFPMFPMFPMFPMF

MFMFMFMFPFPFPFPFPMFPMFPMFPMF

FBFBFBFB PAPAPAPACVFCVFCVFCVF

UKUKUKUK

CVFCVFCVFCVF

MFMFMFMF

FBFBFBFB PAPAPAPA

PFPFPFPF

USAUSAUSAUSA

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Military Civilian

Armed Civil administrationforces Volunteers (civil society)

Military Civilian

Armed Civil administrationforces Volunteers (civil society)forces Volunteers (civil society)

Emergency services(army)

[residual role]Civil defence Civil protection

forces Volunteers (civil society)Emergency services

(army)[residual role]

Civil defence Civil protection

Command and control Co-ordinationand co-operation

Chain of command Autonomy

Command and control Co-ordinationand co-operation

Chain of command Autonomy

Counter terrorismCounter terrorism

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Terrorism is a form ofteleological disaster (i.e., piloted)

• it is potentially infinitely mutable

• designing remedies is avery expensive process

h i hi hl d b bl• the scenarios are highly debatable.

EXAMPLE:EXAMPLE: the Aum Shinrikyothe Aum Shinrikyoattack in the attack in the Toyko subway Toyko subway withwiththe the nerve gas nerve gas SarinSarin (1995):(1995):

EXAMPLE:EXAMPLE: the Aum Shinrikyothe Aum Shinrikyoattack in the attack in the Toyko subway Toyko subway withwiththe the nerve gas nerve gas SarinSarin (1995):(1995):

12 d d12 d d•• 12 dead12 dead

•• 4900 people went to4900 people went tohospital, of whom...hospital, of whom...

•• about 1000 were genuinely injuredabout 1000 were genuinely injuredg y jg y j

•• ...about 3900 were suffering from...about 3900 were suffering fromMIPS MIPS -- multiple ideopathic physicalmultiple ideopathic physicalsymptomssymptoms: i.e., : i.e., hypochondriahypochondria..

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The principal effectof terrorism on the

l bli

The principal effectof terrorism on the

l bligeneral publiccould be, not any directinvolvement of peoplein an incident, butthe disruption of

general publiccould be, not any directinvolvement of peoplein an incident, butthe disruption ofp

normal daily life...p

normal daily life...

...with huge costs to society....with huge costs to society.

Armed aggressionArmed aggressionon the part of stateson the part of states

Armed aggressionArmed aggressionon the part of stateson the part of states

Civil defenceCivil defenceNatural disastersNatural disastersNatural disastersNatural disasters

Civil protectionCivil protection

"Homeland security"(civil defence)

"Homeland security"(civil defence)Armed aggressionArmed aggressionon the part ofon the part of

groups of dissidentsgroups of dissidents

Armed aggressionArmed aggressionon the part ofon the part of

groups of dissidentsgroups of dissidents

"Generic" disasters"Generic" disasters"Generic" disasters"Generic" disasters

"Civil contingencies"(resilience)

"Civil contingencies"(resilience)

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Emergency management:Emergency management:an evolutionary approachan evolutionary approachEmergency management:Emergency management:an evolutionary approachan evolutionary approach

Civil defence...............Civil protectionCivil defence...............Civil protectionCivil defence...............Civil protectionCivil defence...............Civil protection

Proxy ParticipatoryProxy Participatory

Command and controlCommand and controlVertical chainVertical chainf df d

CollaborationCollaborationTask forcesTask forces

P l l dP l l dof commandof commandPopulation excludedPopulation excludedLaw and orderLaw and orderSecrecySecrecy

Population consultedPopulation consultedand includedand included

Problem solvingProblem solvingOpennessOpenness

Organisation• procedures• event scenarios

Stockpiling• equipment• supplies

CounterCounter--terrorism activityterrorism activityCounterCounter--terrorism activityterrorism activity

• emergency plans

Intelligence• collection• interpretation• warning

Training• plan dissemination• exercises

pp

warning

Surveillance• automatic (CCTV)• manual (personnel)

Analysis• laboratory• forensic

Involvement of civil protectionInvolvement of civil protectionInvolvement of civil protectionInvolvement of civil protection

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I f ti (1)I f ti (1)Information (1):how emergenciesare perceived

Information (1):how emergenciesare perceived

Shortage ofinformation

Excess ofinformation

InformationInformationcritical but critical but critical but critical but

lackinglacking

Impact of disasterImpact of disasterImpact of disasterImpact of disaster TimeTimeTimeTime

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But publicperception

of disasters

But publicperception

of disastersof disasterscontinues to bedominated bymyths andinaccuracies

enthusiastically

of disasterscontinues to bedominated bymyths andinaccuracies

enthusiasticallyenthusiasticallypropagated by

the mass media.

enthusiasticallypropagated by

the mass media.

"Myth" no. 1:In general terms, disastersare truly exceptional events.

"Myth" no. 1:In general terms, disastersare truly exceptional events.

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"Myth" no. 2:Disasters kill people without respect

to differences of social class.

"Myth" no. 2:Disasters kill people without respect

to differences of social class.

"Myth" no. 3:Hiding under desks offers good

protection if there is an earthquake.

"Myth" no. 3:Hiding under desks offers good

protection if there is an earthquake.

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"Myth" no. 4:"Myth" no. 4:Trapped people survive for many daysunder the rubble of collapsed buildings.

100

brou

ght o

utps

ed b

uilin

gs

50

ntag

e of

peo

ple

bom

und

er c

olla

p

0.5 1 3 12 1 2 3 4 5 7 10 15Hours Days

Survival time

0

Perc

enal

ive

fro

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"Myth" no. 5:Disasters cause a great deal of chaos andthus cannot be managed systematically.

"Myth" no. 5:Disasters cause a great deal of chaos andthus cannot be managed systematically.

"Myth" no. 6:Usually, the first assistance in disasteris supplied by the emergency services.

"Myth" no. 6:Usually, the first assistance in disasteris supplied by the emergency services.

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"Myth" no. 7:"Myth" no. 7:When a disaster occurs there is usuallya shortage of resources and for this

reason the event cannot be managed well

"Myth" no. 7:"Myth" no. 7:When a disaster occurs there is usuallya shortage of resources and for this

reason the event cannot be managed wellreason the event cannot be managed well.reason the event cannot be managed well.

"Myth" no. 8:"Myth" no. 8:When disasters occur people should

donate used clothes.

"Myth" no. 8:"Myth" no. 8:When disasters occur people should

donate used clothes.

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"Myth" no. 9:"Myth" no. 9:Businesses, associations and governmentsare always generous when disaster occurs.

"Myth" no. 9:"Myth" no. 9:Businesses, associations and governmentsare always generous when disaster occurs.

"Myth" no. 10:"Myth" no. 10:When disaster happens,people tend to panic.

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"Myth" no. 11:"Myth" no. 11:People will flee in large numbers

from a disaster area.

"Myth" no. 11:"Myth" no. 11:People will flee in large numbers

from a disaster area.

"Myth" no. 12:"Myth" no. 12:After disaster has struck, peopletend to be dazed and apathetic.

"Myth" no. 12:"Myth" no. 12:After disaster has struck, peopletend to be dazed and apathetic.

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"Myth" no. 13:"Myth" no. 13:Disasters commonly give rise to

spontaneous manifestations of antisocial,behaviour such as outbreaks of lootingbehaviour, such as outbreaks of looting.

Instead we have theInstead we have the therapeutic communitytherapeutic communityInstead we have theInstead we have the therapeutic communitytherapeutic community

"Myth" no. 14:"Myth" no. 14:Unburied dead bodies constitute ahealth hazard and will contaminate

water supplieswater supplies.

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The mass media continually state that theThe mass media continually state that thepresence of unburied bodies after disasterpresence of unburied bodies after disaster

can and will cause disease epidemics.can and will cause disease epidemics.

The mass media continually state that theThe mass media continually state that thepresence of unburied bodies after disasterpresence of unburied bodies after disaster

can and will cause disease epidemics.can and will cause disease epidemics.

"Myth" no. 15:"Myth" no. 15:Spraying bodies, rubble

and survivors with disinfectantstops the spread of disease.

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"Myth" no. 16:"Myth" no. 16:Disease epidemics are a very common

result of the disruption and poor healthcaused by major disasterscaused by major disasters.

"Myth" no. 17:"Myth" no. 17:Field hospitals are useful forthe treatment of the injured.

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"Myth" no. 18:"Myth" no. 18:Great quantities and assortments of

medicines should be sent to disaster areas.

"Myth" no. 19:"Myth" no. 19:Anthrax is a white powder.

"Myth" no. 19:"Myth" no. 19:Anthrax is a white powder.

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"Myth" no. 20:"Myth" no. 20:Technology will save the world

from disasters.

"Myth" no. 21:"Myth" no. 21:Tsunamis are tidal waves.

"Myth" no. 21:"Myth" no. 21:Tsunamis are tidal waves.

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"Myth" no. 22:"Myth" no. 22:Earthquake magnitude is alwaysmeasured on the Richter scale.

Our image of disasters is conditionedOur image of disasters is conditionedfar too much by Hollywood!far too much by Hollywood!

Our image of disasters is conditionedOur image of disasters is conditionedfar too much by Hollywood!far too much by Hollywood!

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M t lM t l

Editorialindependenceand freedom

Obligationto informthe public

MutualMutualantipathyantipathy

ororcollaborativecollaborativerelationship?relationship?

Representativesof the mass

media

Emergencyand disaster

managers

Sales andratings;

reputation;revenue fromadvertising

Public informationcentres; warnings

and alerts;informing the

relatives of victims

Information 2:Information 2:role ofrole of

Information 2:Information 2:role ofrole ofrole ofrole of

technologytechnologyin thein the


role ofrole oftechnologytechnology

in thein themanagementmanagementmanagementmanagement

of informationof informationmanagementmanagement

of informationof information

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Wisdom:Wisdom: abilityability toto take take decisionsdecisionson the on the basisbasis ofof principlesprinciples,,experienceexperience and and knowledgeknowledge

Knowledge:Knowledge: understanding of howunderstanding of howthings function (or should function)things function (or should function)

Information:Information: description ofdescription ofh i l d i l it tih i l d i l it tiphysical and social situationsphysical and social situations

Data:Data: basic facts and statisticsbasic facts and statistics

COMMUNICATIONCOMMUNICATION

Old ideas...Old ideas...Old ideas...Old ideas...

•• rigid structurerigid structure•• rigid structurerigid structuregg•• hierarchyhierarchy•• military doctrinemilitary doctrine•• secrecysecrecy•• cordoncordon•• command and controlcommand and control

gg•• hierarchyhierarchy•• military doctrinemilitary doctrine•• secrecysecrecy•• cordoncordon•• command and controlcommand and controlcommand and controlcommand and control•• securitysecurity•• civil defence.civil defence.

command and controlcommand and control•• securitysecurity•• civil defence.civil defence.

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New ideas...New ideas...New ideas...New ideas...

•• planningplanning•• collaborationcollaboration•• planningplanning•• collaborationcollaboration•• collaborationcollaboration•• flexible, adaptable managementflexible, adaptable management•• limited "span of control"limited "span of control"•• information sharinginformation sharing•• IT supportIT support

•• collaborationcollaboration•• flexible, adaptable managementflexible, adaptable management•• limited "span of control"limited "span of control"•• information sharinginformation sharing•• IT supportIT support•• accredited journalistsaccredited journalists•• involving the publicinvolving the public•• civil protection.civil protection.

•• accredited journalistsaccredited journalists•• involving the publicinvolving the public•• civil protection.civil protection.

Some effects ofSome effects ofthe informationthe information

and communicationsand communicationstechnology revolutiontechnology revolution

Some effects ofSome effects ofthe informationthe information

and communicationsand communicationstechnology revolutiontechnology revolution

•• flatteningflattening of the chain of commandof the chain of command•• flatteningflattening of the chain of commandof the chain of command•• IT supportIT support for disaster responsefor disaster response•• IT supportIT support for disaster responsefor disaster response•• overloadoverload of information delivery systemsof information delivery systems•• overloadoverload of information delivery systemsof information delivery systems

rtifici lit nd is l ti nrtifici lit nd is l ti nrtifici lit nd is l ti nrtifici lit nd is l ti n

•• the emergency manager must studythe emergency manager must studynew ways to new ways to informinform himself and othershimself and others..

•• the emergency manager must studythe emergency manager must studynew ways to new ways to informinform himself and othershimself and others..

•• artificiality and isolationartificiality and isolationfrom the reality on the groundfrom the reality on the ground

•• artificiality and isolationartificiality and isolationfrom the reality on the groundfrom the reality on the ground

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HumanitarianHumanitarianreliefrelief

HumanitarianHumanitarianreliefreliefreliefreliefreliefrelief

Aceh (Indonesia)K

'Complex emergencies': situations ofpolitical, economic and military collapseand damage to the fabric of society

'Complex emergencies': situations ofpolitical, economic and military collapseand damage to the fabric of society

( )AfghanistanAfrica meridionaleAngolaBurundiCeceniaColombia

KenyaKosovo e i BalcaniLiberiaPakistan settentrionalePalestina e IsraeleRwandaSierra LeoneCorea del Nord

Eritrea e EthiopiaGrandi Laghi AfricaniHaitiIl CaucasoIraq

Sierra LeoneSomaliaSri Lankail SudanTimor OrientaleUganda

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WAR ANDCONFLICT

NATURALDISASTERS

MILITA

RY M

ILITARY

MILITA

RY M

ILITARY

The"MilitaryCross"

The"MilitaryCross"

HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCEHUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCEHUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCEHUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE

VULNERABILITYAND

MARGINAL-ISATION

INSECURITYPOVERTY

ASSISTA

NCE

ASSISTA

NCE

ASSISTA

NCE

ASSISTA

NCE

Justice Impartiality

Hijacking ofassistance

Justice Impartiality

HumanitarianismRelief

Robberyand rapeof victims

Totalwar

Whatfuture?

HumanitarianismReliefPoliticisation ofrelief suppies

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ConclusionsConclusions

OGY

OGY

OGY

OGY

• losses in disaster willcontinue to increase steeply

• losses in disaster willcontinue to increase steeply

• poverty and vulnerability will defineever more closely the areas of

• poverty and vulnerability will defineever more closely the areas of

TURO

LOTU

ROLO

TURO

LOTU

ROLO

• at the world scale, one or moregreat events will cause a drasticreorganisation disaster preparedness

• at the world scale, one or moregreat events will cause a drasticreorganisation disaster preparedness

ever more closely the areas ofgreatest susceptibility to disastersever more closely the areas ofgreatest susceptibility to disasters

FUT

FUT

FUT

FUT reorganisation disaster preparednessreorganisation disaster preparedness

• the catalyst event may be avolcanic eruption, an earthquake, ora biological or radioactive incident.

• the catalyst event may be avolcanic eruption, an earthquake, ora biological or radioactive incident.

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•• the job of the the job of the emergency manageremergency managerwill become more and more complexwill become more and more complex

•• the job of the the job of the emergency manageremergency managerwill become more and more complexwill become more and more complex

•• emergency planningemergency planning will havewill haveto tackle new kinds of eventto tackle new kinds of event

•• emergency planningemergency planning will havewill haveto tackle new kinds of eventto tackle new kinds of event

•• emergency managementemergency management willwillvery slowly become a professionvery slowly become a profession

•• emergency managementemergency management willwillvery slowly become a professionvery slowly become a professionvery slowly become a professionvery slowly become a professionvery slowly become a professionvery slowly become a profession

•• the level of the level of internationalinternationalparticipation participation in disasters will risein disasters will rise..

•• the level of the level of internationalinternationalparticipation participation in disasters will risein disasters will rise..

CertificationCertificationof competenceof competenceCertificationCertification

of competenceof competence

EEEE

ResearchResearchResearchResearch ExperienceExperienceExperienceExperience

Recognition andRecognition andRecognition andRecognition and

TrainingTrainingprogrammesprogrammes

TrainingTrainingprogrammesprogrammes

EmergingEmergingprofessionalprofessional

figurefigure

EmergingEmergingprofessionalprofessional

figurefigure

ggan institutionalan institutionalrole for therole for the

professional figureprofessional figure

ggan institutionalan institutionalrole for therole for the

professional figureprofessional figurePolicies andPolicies andlegislationlegislationPolicies andPolicies andlegislationlegislation

OrganiOrgani--sationsation

OrganiOrgani--sationsation

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SustainableSustainable emergencyemergency management:management:--SustainableSustainable emergencyemergency management:management:--

•• isis centredcentred uponupon the the locallocal levellevel((butbut isis harmonisedharmonised fromfrom aboveabove))

•• isis centredcentred uponupon the the locallocal levellevel((butbut isis harmonisedharmonised fromfrom aboveabove))((butbut isis harmonisedharmonised fromfrom aboveabove))((butbut isis harmonisedharmonised fromfrom aboveabove))

•• hashas the the supportsupport andandinvolvementinvolvement ofof the the populationpopulation

•• hashas the the supportsupport andandinvolvementinvolvement ofof the the populationpopulation

•• is based on is based on plansplans that are fullythat are fully l l

•• is based on is based on plansplans that are fullythat are fully l l disseminated and frequently reviseddisseminated and frequently reviseddisseminated and frequently reviseddisseminated and frequently revised

•• is a fundamental, everyis a fundamental, every--day day serviceservicefor the population and is taken for the population and is taken seriouslyseriously..

•• is a fundamental, everyis a fundamental, every--day day serviceservicefor the population and is taken for the population and is taken seriouslyseriously..

emergency-planning.blogspot.comwww.slideshare.net/dealexander

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emergency-planning.blogspot.comwww.slideshare.net/dealexander

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State of the Art short - Global Risk Forum GRF Davos...2010/06/01 · Unburied dead bodies constitute a health hazard and will contaminate water supplies. 6/1/2010 20 The mass media

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